The NZ Property Market Podcast – Details, episodes & analysis

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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.

Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.

Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.

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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.

Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod. 

As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including: 

• The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.
• Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figures
• Government announcement to underwrite new developments
• RBNZ data on loan terms chose in August
• Economic data on business confidence and filled jobs. 

That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).

Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final. 

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.

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With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.

Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.

And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.

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In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.

Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.

Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.

You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.

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With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. 

This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.

Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. 

This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.

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This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. 

Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.

But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance.

Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.

Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.

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Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.

There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.

It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.

The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.

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**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version**

 With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.

With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.

Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. 

Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.

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Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).

As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).

There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).

Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.

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