The Numbers – Details, episodes & analysis

After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say about Pierre Poilievre’s current standing within the Conservative Party, as well as an upcoming provincial byelection in Quebec. Plus, Philippe has a quiz on past NDP leadership contests.

If you missed it last week, we played a round of Over/Unders on the federal byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot. You can listen to this members-only episode by joining our Patreon here.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature and Danielle Smith has kept the separatists at bay. But there are some conflicting signals in the results. Are there reasons for Smith to be concerned over these numbers?

And what could they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s own quest for a seat in rural Alberta?

We break down the results of the Alberta byelections in this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the deep hole Quebec’s François Legault finds himself in and Philippe has another quiz (and a tough one) on the results of the 2025 federal election.

(We are planning to take a break for Canada Day, but our next episode for members of our Patreon should be out at the end of next week.)

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday?

On this episode of The Numbers, we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or bad night for each of them. Can Jagmeet Singh’s NDP retain official party status? Will Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois hold the balance of power? Can the Greens avoid disaster?

And, of course, who will win the election?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’ll have one more final episode on Saturday for members of our Patreon. You can listen to that episode and join our Discord by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections. We also take a look at some local polling in the Greater Toronto Area and on Vancouver Island.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that?

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.

Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”

Yes. Yes, we do.

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.

This election isn’t over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?

On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the diverging poll numbers. We also take a deep dive into some B.C. regional polling numbers and look at a pair of ridings that could be worth watching on election night. Does the NDP actually have a chance to win a second seat in Quebec?

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades?

In this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the numbers. We also look at some polls from Léger that have surprising regional breakdowns of support within Ontario and British Columbia.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats can beat expectations and if there are any signs that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can turn things around.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

Did you miss our special episode on Saturday? Patreon members can listen to it here.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/week-1-goes-to-125451769

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.