Explore every episode of the podcast Deterrence Matters

In this episode of Deterrence Matters, host Jim Petrosky sits down with NIDS Senior Fellow Kirk Fansher to examine one of national security’s most enduring debates: the tension between nuclear deterrence and disarmament.

Using the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article, “The Nuclear Paradox: Why the World Wants Both Deterrence and Disarmament,” as a starting point, Jim and Kirk challenge assumptions about disarmament, minimum deterrence, and whether a world without nuclear weapons would necessarily be more stable.

They explore the risks of both minimum and maximum deterrence, the strategic roles of ICBMs, submarines, and bombers, counterforce versus countervalue targeting, and how emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, drones, and precision strike could affect strategic stability.

At its core, this conversation asks a critical question: How do we preserve peace without creating the very instability that makes war more likely?

For anyone interested in nuclear strategy, arms control, great-power competition, and the future of deterrence, this is a conversation worth hearing.

Russia’s nuclear threats are back in the spotlight—but are they a strategic bluff or a signal designed to shape NATO’s next move?

Jim and Curtis unpack the Kremlin’s rhetoric around Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, and Lithuania’s shift in policy on nuclear-capable NATO access, exploring why this small enclave has become a volatile pressure point in European security.

The hosts examine Kaliningrad’s strategic geography, Russia’s concerns about blockade and isolation, and the risks of escalation and miscalculation. Curtis considers how Putin’s “all weapons in our arsenal” language may function as brinkmanship and deterrence messaging, while Jim asks whether repeated nuclear warnings risk losing their credibility—and whether NATO’s response is strong enough to influence Russian behavior.

Connecting the current standoff to Cold War lessons that highlight the importance of clear communication, credible deterrence, and understanding how each side perceives the threat. The conversation closes with a reminder that deterrence is ultimately about preventing war—not fighting one.

www.thinkdeterrence.com

Russia is pouring steel, concrete, and cable into a buried command complex in the Urals - and the move may reveal exactly how deterrence is changing in real time. Jim and Curtis unpack the reported expansion of Facility 1335, the so-called Perimeter or "dead hand" system, and what it means for second-strike credibility, first-strike fears, and the future of nuclear command and control. The conversation starts with a major announcement:

The NIDS View is now the Deterrence Matters podcast. Jim explains why the name change is meant to sharpen the mission and reach a wider audience. The hosts break down the reporting behind Russia's bunker expansion, including procurement evidence, satellite imagery, and the scale of the buildout - tens of thousands of tons of steel and cement, hundreds of kilometers of cable, new entrances, and extensive excavation.

They also explore a modern twist: as Russia reportedly modernizes Perimeter to connect with space-based and mobile assets, the strategic equation gets even more complex. If one side believes it is invulnerable, how does the other side restore deterrence without escalating the risk? That question sits at the heart of this episode.

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Nuclear testing, Russian strategic messaging, North Korea, China, and the race for technological advantage are all shaping an increasingly complex security environment.

Jim and Curtis unpack what these developments mean for deterrence, national security, and future U.S. strategy. From the growing strategic importance of Russia-North Korea ties to the role of science, technology, and workforce development, this episode connects the month’s headlines to the larger challenges facing policymakers and national security leaders.

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Chris Stone joins The NIDS View to unpack the U.S. announcement on space control weapons and what it portends for the future of national security. From lasers and high-powered microwaves to orbital threats and competing Chinese and Russian capabilities, the conversation examines what it takes to protect vital space assets in an increasingly contested environment. The discussion also addresses fundamental deterrence questions in the space domain, such as how to convince an adversary they cannot deny American space access. With space deeply connected to military operations, communications, and the broader economy, the stakes extend far beyond orbit.

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Nuclear deterrence is not failing in Ukraine and Iran - it is being misread. Retired Colonel Kirk Fansher breaks down why some of the loudest anti-nuclear arguments confuse deterrence with total war, and why that distinction changes everything. The conversation starts with a provocative opinion piece claiming the wars in Ukraine and Iran expose the "flaws" in nuclear deterrence. Curtis and Kirk push back hard, showing how Russia's arsenal has done exactly what deterrence is supposed to do: keep NATO out of the trenches and shape escalation without triggering a nuclear exchange. They also unpack why attacks on strategic bombers, missile launches aimed at distant bases, and repeated regional strikes do not automatically prove nuclear weapons are useless.

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In this News in Review episode for July, Curtis and Jim examine a series of significant developments shaping the global security environment, from Russia's latest ICBM test launch to evolving geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and the growing strategic importance of energy infrastructure.

The discussion explores how Russia and the United States continue to signal nuclear capabilities in an increasingly complex deterrence landscape, while also highlighting encouraging trends in U.S. military recruitment and the challenges of developing the workforce needed to sustain national defense.

The conversation then shifts to China's expanding influence in the Middle East, the emergence of the proposed "Mecca Alliance," and the broader implications for regional stability and international partnerships. Our hosts take a closer look at the intersection of technology, energy, and security, examining how the rapid growth of AI-driven data centers is increasing electricity demand and creating new strategic considerations for policymakers. Throughout the discussion, they emphasize the importance of credible deterrence, alliance cohesion, and strategic stability in a world marked by intensifying competition among major powers.

Whether discussing nuclear modernization, military readiness, shifting regional alignments, or the future of critical infrastructure, this episode offers timely insights into the challenges and opportunities shaping deterrence in the 21st century.

https://thedefencenews.com/anduril-starts-building-cca-prototypes-in-ohio/

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/83349

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-906537

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and special guest Col (Ret) Kirk Fansher discuss key insights from summer's two biggest deterrence symposiums and explore the challenges shaping today's strategic environment. From the complexities of submarine manufacturing and the limitations of the defense industrial base to the evolving role of nuclear deterrence, they examine the issues influencing U.S. national security policy.

The conversation highlights the importance of deterrence by denial, innovation in military technology, acquisition reform, and maintaining a resilient nuclear triad. Curtis and Kirk also reflect on Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby's recent comments on nuclear strategy, the future of deterrence, and the critical role NATO and allied cooperation play in ensuring global stability.

Whether you're interested in defense policy, modernization, or the future of strategic deterrence, this episode provides timely reflection on the challenges and opportunities facing the United States and its allies.

www.thinkdeterrence.com

What can today's NATO leaders learn from the Cold War? In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim compare the enduring issues of deterrence, alliance cohesion, and military credibility that helped preserve peace in 1988 and 2026.

The discussion explores how the USA's attitudes toward NATO's defense posture have evolved- and not evolved--to include the issues of burden sharing, which remain a central challenge for the Alliance.

The conversation compares Cold War-era defense spending, force readiness, and public support for NATO with today's security environment, offering important insights into the future of European defense. As regional tensions grow and questions arise about NATO's credibility, this episode highlights that US commitments to the alliance have been questioned since its inception and the risks of strategic complacency.

Frontline: The Defense of Europe (1988) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLjnT01ECO8

In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim examine two of China's newest naval warships and what these developments reveal about Beijing's evolving military strategy and their implications for regional security and strategic stability. From next-generation destroyers and amphibious assault ships to China's pursuit of a true blue-water navy, they explore how naval modernization shapes perceptions of military power, strengthens conventional deterrence, and influences strategic risk.

The discussion examines the roles of capability, signaling, and credibility in preventing conflict, while considering how advanced technologies and expanding maritime power can simultaneously reinforce deterrence and exacerbate regional security dilemmas.

Curtis and Jim also discuss the strategic motivations driving China's naval expansion, the relationship between offensive and defensive capabilities, and the challenges confronting U.S. and allied policymakers in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific maritime environment.

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Curtis and Jim examine the evolving landscape of allied extended deterrence, credibility, and the U.S. nuclear umbrella. As geopolitical competition intensifies and allies reassess their security gaps, they explore what it takes to preserve regional peace in a world where strategic trust can be as fragile as nuclear stability itself.

For decades, U.S. extended deterrence has underpinned the security of allies across Europe and Asia, helping prevent both major war and nuclear proliferation. Today, however, shifting political priorities, emerging technologies, and evolving regional threats are testing the credibility of that longstanding commitment.

Curtis offers his perspective on whether America's nuclear umbrella remains credible, what makes extended deterrence effective, and how the United States can reassure allies without encouraging nuclear proliferation. Jim examines the complex interplay of trust, sovereignty, burden-sharing, and modernization as European nations—including France and Germany—who seek greater strategic autonomy while remaining tied to NATO's collective defense. Together, they discuss the challenges and opportunities facing extended deterrence in an increasingly multipolar world.

www.ThinkDeterrence.com

In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim review their favorite news developments for July 2026, shaping the global deterrence landscape—from China’s latest submarine-launched ballistic missile test to growing concerns over Russian military capacity, North Korean support, and U.S. defense modernization priorities. The discussion explores what China’s JL-2 missile test reveals about Beijing’s strategic ambitions, the implications of U.S. efforts to secure military drone supply chains, and reports that North Korea is supplying significant quantities of artillery ammunition to Russia. Curtis and Jim also assess the risks of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, the challenges facing U.S. and allied deterrence strategies, and how defense investments in nuclear modernization and homeland defense will shape the strategic environment in the years ahead.

China's JL2 missile test and strategic implications: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jul/8/inside-ring-chinese-nuclear-missile-test-flight-passed-near-guam/

US tentative ban on foreign military drones

North Korea supplying 40% of Russia's artillery shells: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79862

US defense budget priorities for 2027

Ukraine's two-month window before potential Russian mobilization : https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/ukraine-has-two-months-before-putin-could-order-a-mass-mobilization-and-it-could-be-the-gamble-that-ends-him/

Risks of nuclear escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim examine Europe's growing drive to strengthen its own deterrent capabilities amid Russia's war in Ukraine and a future NATO 3.0. They explore whether Europe is moving toward greater strategic autonomy while remaining anchored within the NATO alliance. The discussion highlights Europe's emerging missile renaissance, including the development of new long-range strike capabilities, expanded defense industrial capacity, and investments in advanced non-nuclear military technologies. The conversation further examines how U.S. military innovation—including low-cost, high-precision weapons, and long-range conventional strike capabilities—is reshaping the American character of modern warfare. As allies reassess the relationship between conventional and nuclear deterrence, the hosts explore the implications for escalation management, strategic stability, and the credibility of deterrence in an increasingly complex and contested security environment.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, NIDS welcomes Curtis McGiffin and Dr. Adam Lowther, co-authors of Learning to Love the Bomb: Understanding the American Nuclear Arsenal, for a wide-ranging discussion on the history, science, strategy, and people behind the U.S. nuclear enterprise. Drawing on the expertise of leading deterrence professionals, they explain why a deeper understanding of America's nuclear arsenal is essential for policymakers, military leaders, and citizens alike.

The conversation explores the motivations for writing the book, the operational realities of the U.S. nuclear enterprise, and the evolving strategic challenges posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. McGiffin and Lowther also discuss the role of physics and history in shaping deterrence theory, the importance of strategic stability, and how bridging technical, policy, and military perspectives can strengthen deterrence in an increasingly dangerous world.

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction to the Book and Its Impact

03:07 – Why Write Learning to Love the Bomb?

06:20 – Understanding the Nuclear Enterprise and Its Components

11:40 – Expert Contributions and Their Significance

15:28 – The Physics of Nuclear Weapons Explained

23:42 – Strategic Threats and the Future of Deterrence

27:51 – Recommendations and Strategic Outlook

37:30 – Reflections on the Book's Contributions and Audience

Where to purchase the book: https://www.cambriapress.com/pub.cfm?bid=1207 https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Love-Bomb-Understanding-American/dp/1638573964

Jim and Curtis sit down with aerospace engineer Ken Katz to explore the remarkable evolution of the B-1 bomber and what it teaches us about deterrence, innovation, and adaptability. From the Cold War origins of the B-1 program to its transformation into a highly effective conventional strike platform, Katz examines the technological, political, and strategic forces that shaped one of America's most iconic aircraft.

The discussion also explores the broader role of bombers in the U.S. strategic triad, the impact of stealth and radar cross-section design, and why digital systems have become essential to maintaining relevance in an ever-changing threat environment. Along the way, we revisit lessons from historic aircraft programs such as the B-70 Valkyrie and B-52 Stratofortress, discussing how decisions made decades ago continue to influence military modernization efforts today.

Kenneth P. Katz was commissioned as an Air Force officer through ROTC and served on active duty as a flight test engineer at Edwards AFB, testing bombers and cruise missiles. After completing military service, he worked for the Boeing Company, flight testing the V-22 Osprey. Since then, he has worked in a variety of information technology and aerospace engineering positions, retiring from Collins Aerospace in 2025.

Ken is the author of three books about military aircraft, with his most recent book being "The Supersonic BONE: A Development & Operational History of the B-1 Bomber". He is a prolific podcast host, currently doing the "Supersonic BONE" series for Authentic Media.

www.thinkdeterrence.com

In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis analyze the June 2026 deterrence and security developments, including Sen. Deb Fischer's call for greater nuclear investment, Finland's move to repeal its nuclear ban, and B-21 shelters. They explore how allies and adversaries are adapting and emphasize the importance of national resolve, civic education, and history in credible deterrence. The discussion highlights that military power alone isn't enough; values, identity, and willingness to defend are crucial. The hosts also examine emerging technologies—AI, quantum computing, space, and drones—and their impact on military strategies, drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and considering future security implications. The episode links resolve, capability, and credibility as key elements of effective deterrence. Drawing lessons from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the hosts explore the implications of rapidly advancing technology for homeland security and future conflict. Whether you're interested in nuclear policy, alliance dynamics, technological innovation, or the foundations of national power, this episode connects the dots between resolve, capability, and credibility—the enduring pillars of effective deterrence.

www.thinkdeterrence.com

In this episode of The NIDS View, we examine the strategic implications of emerging hypersonic weapons, focusing on the U.S. Army’s Dark Eagle missile. Joined by missile and space warfare expert Chris Stone, the conversation explores how hypersonic capabilities are reshaping deterrence, escalation dynamics, and the future of conflict. From the engineering challenges behind these systems to their potential role in both conventional and nuclear scenarios, this discussion highlights the complex balance between capability and restraint. The episode also considers how adversaries monitor and respond to these developments, and what it all means for strategic stability in an increasingly contested security and political environment.

www.ThinkDeterrence.com

In this episode, Jim and Curtis examine the strategic role of the U.S. bomber fleet, focusing on the B‑21 Raider and other ongoing bomber modernization. They discuss how bombers support nuclear deterrence, enable flexible strategic signaling, and remain a critical part of the nuclear triad’s future thanks to their successful conventional use over the skies of Iran.

https://thinkdeterrence.com/

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim sits down with Bill Murphy, Senior Fellow and Cofounder at NIDS, to examine Europe’s evolving approach to nuclear deterrence in an increasingly complex and multipolar threat environment. As Russia’s nuclear posture grows more assertive and China’s influence expands, the conversation explores how European leaders are reassessing their reliance on U.S. extended deterrence.

Petrosky and Murphy break down five key options Europe is considering—from strengthening NATO nuclear sharing to pursuing greater strategic autonomy—and analyze the risks, trade-offs, and implications for transatlantic security. They also address challenges related to command and control, non-proliferation, and the credibility of U.S. commitments.

🔔 Subscribe for more expert discussions on deterrence and global security ▶️ Watch now to understand Europe’s nuclear future and what it means for NATO

https://securityconference.org/en/publications/special-editions/mind-the-deterrence-gap/

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim returns to join Curtis as they explore China’s ongoing nuclear buildup, including newly identified octagonal facilities and 80 launch pads near the Hami missile fields. The conversation explores what these developments reveal about Beijing’s strategic intentions, including the concept of dynamic parity and the role of ambiguity in deterrence. The hosts unpack the unique octagonal design of China’s missile bases, discussing possible engineering rationales, command-and-control considerations, and the implications of modular construction. They also assess how China’s expanding infrastructure could impact nuclear stability, missile defense planning, and target distribution in future conflicts.

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Curtis and Kirk Fansher provide a May 2026 deterrence news roundup on developments shaping strategic stability. They discuss Russia's nuclear exercises in Belarus, its successful SARMAT ICBM test, and its third ORESHNIK missile attack on Kyiv. They also explore NATO's evolving deterrence and how countries use drills, modernization, and dual-use attacks to send signals and manage escalation.

Articles:

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/05/19/nuclear-war-exercises-begin/7881779178972/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-missile-satan-ii-calls-putin-worlds-most-powerful/

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-two-oreshnik-missiles-first-donetsk/

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What does the future of NATO look like in an era of evolving threats and shifting alliances?

In this episode, NIDS Senior Fellow, Kirk Fansher joins Curtis to review and assess Hans Petter Midttun's proposed CALM (Coalition of Like Minds) concept to bolster Euro-deterrence and NATO credibility. Arguing that "NATO no longer guarantees Europe's security," CALM seeks to bring the more "enthusiastic" allies (and Ukraine) into a more credible and formidable group that would be relieved of NATO politics and independent of American support. The conversation explores how nuclear deterrence continues to underpin NATO’s stability, while raising critical questions about alliance cohesion, U.S. leadership, and Europe’s path toward greater strategic autonomy. As the war in Ukraine reshapes the security environment, this episode offers a timely and insightful look at how NATO must adapt to remain credible, unified, and effective in deterring future threats.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/22/the-alternative-to-nato-a-coalition-of-like-minded-european-countries/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/04/nato-is-dead-meet-calm/

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In this episode of The NIDS View, guest host Kirk Fansher joins Curtis for a timely discussion on Turkey’s emerging intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability and what it signals for future regional and global security. As Turkey advances its missile and space programs, our experts examine the broader strategic implications—including potential reach, deterrence dynamics, and Ankara’s pursuit of greater strategic autonomy. They also explore the potential impact on NATO, regional stability, and future missile proliferation risks.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis celebrate May 4th and Star Wars Day by exploring the strategic parallels between Star Wars and real‑world debates over deterrence, space warfare, and global security. From the Death Star as a symbol of coercive deterrence to Cold War–era missile defense and the militarization of space, the conversation unpacks how science fiction both reflects—and shapes—strategic thinking.

The discussion traces the historical roots of space and missile defense in the 1970s, examines how popular culture influences military imagination and technology, and draws connections between the Star Wars universe and today’s geopolitical competition. Along the way, the episode highlights enduring questions of vulnerability, survivability, and signaling in deterrence strategy—and why space remains both a contested domain and a potential arena for cooperation.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis welcomes Jim Klingmeyer, a former Air Force intelligence officer with extensive Middle East experience, to share his assessment of the Iran conflict and its wide-reaching strategic effects. Using decades of regional insight, Klingmeyer explains the historical roots of U.S.–Iran hostility, Iran’s regional ambitions, and the changing nuclear and missile threats shaping today’s security landscape.

The conversation also covers Iran’s military strategy and the limits of U.S. political will and military options. From the War Powers Act and deterrence credibility to economic effects such as oil prices and global stability, this episode provides a clear assessment of risk, resolve, and realism in U.S. foreign policy.

Jim Klingmeyer is an innovative leader with 30 years of experience in active-duty military, private sector, and NGO spaces. Founder and CEO of the Lafayette Group.org. He conducts tailored Hostage Recovery, Humanitarian Relief, and security consulting for corporations, NGO, and Non-Profit organizations operating throughout the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis break down their favorite news articles shaping deterrence, national security, and defense innovation. From the troubling disappearance of U.S. research scientists to debates surrounding the Golden Dome missile defense system, the discussion connects current headlines to enduring questions of strategic stability and deterrence credibility.

The hosts also examine energy security and its implications for global risk—particularly in the context of the Strait of Hormuz, missile stockpile depletion, and growing concerns about military readiness. The episode concludes with a timely look at nuclear modernization, the possibility of renewed underground nuclear testing, and what today’s developments signal for deterrence in a rapidly changing technological and geopolitical environment.

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In this episode, Jim and Curtis reflect on key takeaways from the HEART Conference—Hardened Electronics and Radiation Technology—a leading forum on nuclear weapon effects, radiation‑hardened technologies, and military system resilience.

They discuss why understanding nuclear effects remains central to credible deterrence, the growing complexity of modern systems, and the critical role of rigorous testing and collaboration across science, policy, and industry. The conversation highlights how advances in radiation‑hardened technologies strengthen national security and why forums like HEART are essential for bridging innovation, policy, and operational reality.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Dr. Carl Rhodes joins Jim to examine how recent operations in Iran, advances in air power and missile defense, and the rapid evolution of drone technology are reshaping modern warfare and deterrence—particularly in the Indo‑Pacific.

Carl unpacks how precision strike capabilities, layered missile defenses, and unmanned systems are altering escalation dynamics and influencing deterrence strategies vis‑à‑vis China and other regional actors. Drawing on frameworks such as the Escalation Ladder and Deterrence by Denial, the conversation explores how military power, economic coercion, and integrated effects increasingly define competition below and above the threshold of conflict.

Key themes include the implications of recent military operations in the Middle East, the growing sophistication of Chinese air and missile defenses, and what these trends mean for U.S. allies—particularly Australia—as they enhance regional security cooperation through joint exercises and capability development.

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In this episode, Jim and Curtis break down the rising threat of unauthorized drone activity near U.S. military bases—spotlighting recent incidents at Barksdale Air Force Base. As drone technology and access rapidly evolve, new vulnerabilities are emerging across critical defense infrastructure. They explore how drones enable persistent surveillance, reconnaissance, and even potential weaponization—and what that means for America's nuclear deterrence credibility and national security. The conversation also dives into current policies, legislative efforts, and the latest counter-drone technologies, highlighting the need for layered defenses and stronger coordination across federal and state agencies. Looking ahead, the hosts examine future challenges—from kinetic damage to EMP-related defenses—and make the case for the importance of public awareness and interagency cooperation in protecting U.S. installations.

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In this March 2026 News in Review episode, Jim and Curtis analyze their favorite deterrence‑related developments and headlines shaping the global security environment over the past month. Drawing on a range of recent articles and policy announcements, the conversation examines evolving deterrence strategies, advances in missile technology, and the growing intersection between energy security and national defense. Topics include Iran’s expanding missile range and implications for Europe, North Korea’s continued testing of nuclear‑capable systems, NATO dynamics—including Finland’s nuclear posture—and the Department of Energy’s newly released five‑year energy security plan. The hosts emphasized how resilience, credibility, and trust, remain essential to maintaining stability in an increasingly contested world.

Episode Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction to deterrence and current events

01:07 – Iran’s missile capabilities and European response

06:23 – Understanding threats: capability and intent

11:37 – Energy security as a national security concern

16:10 – Deterrence strategies: cost, denial, and resilience

19:10 – North Korea’s military developments and global implications

21:35 – North Korea’s missile capabilities

30:00 – The future of energy resilience and microgrids

38:47 – Finland’s nuclear policy and NATO dynamics

40:14 – Radiation effects and impacts on electronics

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Jim and Curtis break down the U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, examining what it reveals about today’s most pressing security challenges. The discussion explores nuclear deterrence, missile proliferation, space‑based threats, and escalating geopolitical risks—from China and Taiwan to Iran, Russia, and the Arctic. The conversation dives into deterrence theory, contrasting punishment versus denial, and assesses how emerging technologies—anti‑satellite weapons, space‑based nuclear risks, and expanding missile arsenals—are reshaping strategic stability. This episode offers a clear-eyed look at how global threats are evolving and what they mean for deterrence strategy in an increasingly contested security environment.

ATA-2026-unclassified-16-Mar-FINAL.pdf

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis examine Iran’s nuclear ambitions against the backdrop of the 2026 air war and a rapidly shifting deterrence environment. The conversation unpacks Iran’s status as a nuclear threshold state, the realities of enrichment and breakout potential, and how deterrence—rooted in capability and credibility—shapes decision‑making in Washington, Tehran, and across the region.

Drawing on real‑world developments, they explore the risks of nuclear proliferation, the logic and limits of preemptive strikes, and whether preemption can function as a deterrence‑adjacent strategy without undermining strategic stability.

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This week on The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim examine Macron’s recent shift in nuclear strategy, including signals of an expanded arsenal and the potential forward deployment of nuclear forces to European allies. This episode explores what these moves by France mean for NATO and European security, as well as the future of global arms control. The discussion unpacks French political motivations, strategic objectives under President Macron, and the on nuclear proliferation. As Europe reassesses deterrence in a changing security environment, this episode offers timely insight into how France’s choices could reshape regional and global stability.

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In this February 2026 News Roundup, hosts Jim and Curtis examine key developments shaping modern deterrence this month—from nuclear bomber acquisition and the end of the New START treaty to the 4th anniversary of war in Ukraine. The discussion also highlights the critical role of energy security, logistics, and resilience in sustaining credible deterrence amid an increasingly complex global security environment.

Key Takeaways:

Military modernization remains central to effective deterrence

The end of New START raises new nuclear stability challenges

Energy security and logistics are critical to national defense

Ukraine underscores both the human cost of war and the need for deterrence

Articles:

What Lies Ahead for Nuclear Technology and Security in 2026

(10) Energy as Strategy: The 2026 National Defense Strategy and U.S. Energy Security | LinkedIn

Air Force Announces B-21 Production Deal, 2027 Entry into Service

As war enters fifth year, Ukraine shows Russian victory is anything but inevitable

After 4 years of fighting in Ukraine, a stalemate on the battlefield and the negotiation tables | W…

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Curtis and Jim examine the recent Trump administration revelation about alleged nuclear weapons testing by China and assess the strategic implications of the pronouncement and the testing for global deterrence and stability. They unpack the evolution of China’s nuclear program and explain why understanding that history is essential to assessing its ambitions today. The discussion highlights the critical role of monitoring and detection systems, explores the political and international ramifications of renewed testing, and underscores the need for greater public awareness of national security threats, emphasizing the deep interconnection between science, strategy, and policy in sustaining effective nuclear deterrence in an increasingly complex global environment.

https://www.hudson.org/events/assistant-secretary-state-christopher-yeaw-end-new-start-treaty

The views expressed are those of the host(s) and guest(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Institute for Deterrence Studies, its members, or its components. References to commercial products, services, hyperlinks, or visual materials do not constitute endorsement.

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Jim and Curtis welcome Senior Fellow, Christopher Stone, to examine Greenland’s growing strategic importance in U.S. Golden Dome missile defense and deterrence. They unpack common misconceptions about Greenland’s role, discuss sovereignty and self‑determination issues, and explore how emerging threats—such as hypersonic weapons and Arctic militarization—are reshaping deterrence, space policy, and great‑power competition in the High North.

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Jim sits down with Dr. Joe Bozeman for an in‑depth conversation on the complex realities behind the rapid growth of electric vehicles. Together, they unpack the lesser‑seen side of the EV revolution—especially the challenges and consequences of lithium mining, the backbone of modern battery technology.

Their discussion explores the environmental, human, and geopolitical impacts of the global scramble for critical minerals. From ecological damage and labor concerns to the strategic vulnerabilities created by resource scarcity, the episode highlights why responsible mining practices must be part of any sustainable energy future. Jim and Joe also examine the critical role of community engagement, the responsibility engineers carry in designing ethical and sustainable systems, and how thoughtful policy can help balance economic growth with environmental justice.

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In this January 2026 News Round Up, Jim and Curtis break down several news articles affecting U.S. deterrence. This month was the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy, and why the Doomsday Clock continues to draw closer to midnight. They discuss Congressional engagement on the looming New START expiration and the need for modernized arms control approaches. They emphasize first principles for any viable agreement and review articles on demands for industrial strength, resilient supply chains, clear strategic thinking, and policies that keep pace with emerging threats.

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2025-statement/ https://www.executivegov.com/articles/dow-2026-national-defense-strategy

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis are joined by NIDS Senior Fellow Rob Maness to examine the changing global security landscape, from China’s expanding ambitions to Greenland’s strategic importance and growing challenges to U.S. sovereignty. The discussion highlights why “peace through strength” remains essential, how domestic vulnerabilities shape America’s global posture, and why effective deterrence requires both military readiness and political resolve. The episode also raises critical questions about NATO’s effectiveness, Arctic resources, and aligning U.S. foreign policy with national interests.

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In this episode of The NIDS View, Jim and Curtis dive into one of the most consequential questions facing national security today: How will artificial intelligence reshape deterrence? From enhanced decision-making to the potential for miscalculation, they break down the dual-edged nature of AI as both a strategic asset and a source of new risks. The conversation explores how AI could amplify geopolitical power in both high- and low-trust worlds and challenge long‑standing assumptions about AI confidence, signaling, and escalation. Clear-eyed and thought‑provoking, this episode offers a grounded look at why understanding AI’s role in deterrence is essential for leaders, policymakers, and anyone tracking the future of global security.

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Jim and Curtis discuss the implications for deterrence following the change in Venezuelan leadership. They explore the context of U.S. foreign policy, particularly the Monroe Doctrine, and analyze the various threat vectors emerging from Venezuela, including narco-terrorism and geopolitical adversaries. The conversation emphasizes the importance of enforcing international rules and the economic implications of these actions to ensure long-term stability.

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In this second part of a two-part series, Curtis and Jim discuss the NIDS-proposed Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) for 2026 and beyond, emphasizing the importance of deterrence in today's global landscape. They analyze the implications of the New START Treaty's expiration, the role of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in national security, and the need for a new approach to deterrence in light of evolving adversarial strategies, particularly from China and Russia, as highlighted by Ambassador Billingslea's recent Senate testimony. The conversation underscores the urgency of adapting and expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal to ensure national security and maintain a strategic advantage in 2026 and beyond.

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In the first of a two-part series, Curtis and Jim discuss the NIDS-proposed Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) for 2026 and beyond, emphasizing the importance of deterrence in today's global landscape. They analyze the implications of the New START Treaty's expiration, the role of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in national security, and the need for a new approach to deterrence in light of evolving adversarial strategies, particularly from China and Russia, as highlighted by Ambassador Billingslea's recent Senate testimony. The conversation underscores the urgency of adapting and expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal to ensure national security and maintain a strategic advantage in 2026 and beyond. Get Involved with more NIDS Services:

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Happy Holidays from Curtis and Jim as they discuss the recent advancements in nuclear deterrence modernization, focusing on the W88 nuclear warhead upgrade and its implications for national security. They explore the modernization of other weapons, the importance of developing new systems, and the role of deterrence in maintaining peace. The conversation also covers updates on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and the Columbia-class submarines, emphasizing the need for operational readiness and strategic planning amid evolving threats.

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In this episode, Curtis and Jim discuss the recently released 2025 National Security Strategy, emphasizing the importance for professionals in the field to understand such documents. They critique prior American foreign policy, outline the key elements of the new strategy, and highlight the importance of nuclear deterrence and education in building a secure future. The conversation also addresses the need to empower allies and partners in global security efforts as intended by the NSS.

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Curtis and Jim break down reports of a new Chinese-made concrete-skinned hypersonic glide vehicle—the YKJ-1000—and discuss what ultra-low-cost offensive systems could mean for global stability, deterrence, missile defense, and democratic acquisition cycles. From swarm concepts and strategic messaging to purchase‑power parity, and U.S. counter-moves.

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In this November News Roundup, Jim and Curtis discuss various aspects of nuclear deterrence, including the latest on the role of nuclear cruise missiles, the management of ICBMs, the need for tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, and concerns surrounding nuclear testing and escalation.

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Dr. Joe F. Bozeman III joins Curtis and Jim for a thought-provoking discussion on sustainable power generation and grids, and their impact on community development. Together, they examine the importance of a collective approach to ensuring reliable and affordable power generation and distribution, and how it influences economic growth, national security, and diverse socio-economic challenges, weighing both risks and benefits.

The conversation explores finding the right balance between technological innovation and social responsibility, while also considering the intersections of national security and sustainability.

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In this episode, Adam and Curtis discuss the implications of Japan's new Prime Minister on regional security, regarding Taiwan and China, and supporting their ally, America. They examine the historical context of Taiwan's relationships with Japan and China, as well as Taiwan's current defense strategies and the possible roles the U.S. could play in supporting Taiwan's defense. They analyze the effectiveness of strategic ambiguity vs. clarity in addressing conflict over Taiwan, highlighting the importance of a clear stance and readiness amid rising tensions.

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Adam, Curtis, and Jim discuss President Trump's recent statement advocating for a return to nuclear testing. The conversation delves into the historical context of nuclear testing, the implications of current international relations, and the complexities surrounding nuclear deterrence. The hosts explore the nuances of nuclear yield, the advancements in testing methods, and the importance of understanding adversary actions in the realm of global security. They also address the future of nuclear testing and the political challenges that accompany it.

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