Explore every episode of the podcast The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast

Sminston With joins me to explain why Bitcoin’s power law has remained remarkably consistent and how PMI, liquidity, and AI may help explain Bitcoin’s current cycle. We also discuss what could invalidate the power law, the possibility of a $200K-$300K Bitcoin supercycle, and why accumulating 1 BTC is becoming increasingly difficult.

Timestamps:

0:00 Sminston’s background and journey to Bitcoin

5:30 Why power laws matter for Bitcoin

12:01 Why the power law may be more robust than stock-to-flow

16:14 Why Bitcoin follows a power law

19:45 PMI, business cycles, and Bitcoin volatility

24:19 Why Bitcoin and PMI are diverging

28:01 The PMI level that could ignite Bitcoin

32:33 Liquidity, AI, and the muted bull market

36:57 Could Bitcoin enter a supercycle?

40:13 What would break the Bitcoin power law?

44:06 How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?

51:02 Sminston’s new Bitcoin data platform

Vijay Boyapati, author of *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin*, joins me to discuss why Bitcoin may be in the “boring low” of its cycle, why he still sees a path to gold parity and ~20x upside, and what could drive the next bull market.

We also discuss AI and Bitcoin security, self-custody, Bitcoin price models, ETFs, treasury companies, and what a future Bitcoin standard could look like.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:19 What Vijay Got Right About Bitcoin

06:03 Is Vijay More Bullish Today?

08:07 How Vijay Values Bitcoin

10:36 What Stands Between Bitcoin and Gold Parity?

11:31 Understanding the Current Bitcoin Cycle

16:48 Is AI Sucking Capital Away From Bitcoin?

20:49 AI, Coldcard and Bitcoin Security

27:14 Will AI Make Bitcoin Software Stronger?

28:04 Stock-to-Flow, Power Law and Bitcoin Price Models

31:49 What Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Bull Market?

34:13 Where Will the Next Wave of Capital Come From?

37:22 What Would a Bitcoin Standard Look Like?

39:55 Why Bear Markets Create Opportunity

41:39 Where to Follow Vijay

The Rational Root joins me to break down the Coldcard vulnerability, BIP-110, and the potential Bitcoin chain split. We also analyze on-chain momentum, Digital Credit, institutional demand, and whether Bitcoin’s 2026 bear-market bottom may already be in.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

0:24 Coldcard vulnerability overview

4:46 Coin Days Destroyed and the Coldcard incident

8:41 Coldcard’s development failures

11:50 How AI could strengthen Bitcoin security

13:52 Why Coldcard barely moved Bitcoin’s price

17:16 The safest approach to self-custody

20:15 The risks of single-signature hardware wallets

23:12 BIP-110 and the potential Bitcoin chain split

23:33 Transaction fees after the Coldcard incident

25:08 Bitcoin Core, Knots, and OP_RETURN

28:41 The three ways data enters Bitcoin

33:00 Could BIP-110 make the UTXO problem worse?

35:29 Why Bitcoin’s spam problem may be overstated

37:21 Where Bitcoin is in the four-year cycle

38:35 Short-term holder momentum and capitulation

41:44 How short-term holder momentum works

43:06 Is the Bitcoin bottom already in?

45:45 Could Bitcoin fall to realized price?

47:44 Digital Credit and institutional demand

50:28 Strategy’s cash reserve and preferred stocks

51:09 Why this bear market may be less severe

54:20 Bitcoin’s disconnect from stocks

56:00 AI, macro, and the business cycle

59:15 The final day of the bear market

1:01:16 Bitcoin’s antifragility

1:01:56 Where to follow The Rational Root

Eric Jackson joins Joe Burnett to explain why he believes bitcoin could reach $50 million as AI agents transform global commerce and demand pristine digital collateral. They also discuss bitcoin’s recent underperformance, AI-powered market models, compounding through volatility, and why the next five years may be the most uncertain investing environment of our lifetimes.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Eric Jackson’s background in markets

2:14 - Finding Carvana before the comeback

3:01 - The OpenDoor trade and retail investor momentum

3:40 - How Eric got interested in bitcoin and crypto

6:26 - Building AI models before ChatGPT

9:23 - Volatility, conviction, and long-term investing

12:16 - Why Eric thinks bitcoin could reach $50 million

17:01 - Bitcoin as the “other coin” of the AI trade

17:28 - Why bitcoin has underperformed gold and AI stocks

20:16 - Is the AI boom propping up the market?

22:03 - What the world could look like in 2041

25:55 - AI, uncertainty, and the next five years

28:47 - Kevin Warsh, interest rates, and bitcoin

31:37 - Eric’s bitcoin stress indicator

40:27 - Compounding through bitcoin volatility

43:35 - Can markets be predicted with enough data?

48:20 - How AI changed market analysis

50:44 - Event Horizon IQ and AI-powered predictions

54:15 - Final thoughts and where to follow Eric

Joe Consorti joins The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast to break down the Fed’s impossible choice between fighting inflation, protecting the economy, and keeping asset prices alive. We discuss why bitcoin may be the only asset accurately pricing today’s uncertainty, how AI is disrupting software but strengthening bitcoin’s long-term case, and why the dollar crash playbook may already be underway.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Joe Consorti returns

0:43 - Kevin Warsh’s impossible Fed dilemma

4:49 - Why the Fed may cut rates despite inflation

9:35 - Consumer sentiment hits 74-year lows

11:00 - The K-shaped economy: asset owners vs. everyone else

14:00 - Why they will crash the dollar before markets

17:43 - Why bitcoin is underperforming

21:08 - Is AI stealing capital from bitcoin?

25:10 - Why AI can disrupt software, but cannot disrupt bitcoin

31:02 - ISM PMI, the business cycle, and bitcoin’s bottom

34:37 - Why bitcoin broke from global M2

36:26 - What happens if oil, war, and inflation cool down?

37:17 - Why the S&P 500 could hit 10,000

40:43 - How AI expands the divide between asset owners and labor

45:31 - What bitcoiners may be wrong about

48:22 - “I missed bitcoin” and the unit bias trap

50:18 - Where to follow Joe Consorti

Bitcoin is evolving into a unique asset that responds to both crisis and liquidity expansion. In this conversation, we break down how macro policy, market structure, and institutional flows are reshaping bitcoin’s role in global portfolios. The result is a shift toward bitcoin as a core asset for long-term capital allocation.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and current bitcoin market setup

0:23 Price levels, resistance, and defining a new bull market

1:30 Macro backdrop: war, uncertainty, and market reactions

2:40 Bitcoin as chaos insurance across global crises

4:00 Performance vs gold, S&P 500, and shifting perception

5:00 Liquidity asset vs risk-off asset: reconciling the paradox

6:30 Dual drivers: global liquidity and crisis demand

8:00 Declining volatility and shallower bitcoin drawdowns

9:30 Why traditional markets avoid prolonged recessions

12:00 Debt dynamics and the inevitability of policy response

14:00 Faster Fed response cycles from 2008 to today

16:00 The “big print” and bitcoin as the primary beneficiary

17:30 Role of technology and information flow in policy decisions

20:00 Monetary policy, asset inflation, and wealth concentration

21:30 Fastest stock market rally since 1982 and implications

23:30 V-shaped recoveries and forward market returns

25:00 Institutional positioning and bullish equity signals

27:00 Treasury market stress and liquidity risks

28:30 Why markets rise in both good and bad scenarios

30:00 Bitcoin’s origin and alignment with monetary debasement

31:30 Coffeezilla debate and digital credit misconceptions

35:00 STRC mechanics and sustainability of yield

40:00 Bitcoin balance sheet coverage and risk framing

43:30 Bitcoin decoupling from tech and software stocks

46:00 Long-term path toward an uncorrelated asset

46:30 What to own if bitcoin did not exist

48:30 Closing thoughts and where to follow

Digital Credit is expanding the total addressable market for Bitcoin and Bitcoin is expanding the total addressable market for Digital Credit. This conversation explores how that dynamic could scale reflexively and reshape global capital allocation.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

1:24 Why Bitcoiners should care about digital credit

6:00 Bitcoin fixed income and a new asset class

8:30 The carry trade: earning Bitcoin yield

11:00 Transparent yield vs black-box risk

17:50 Why digital credit is attracting massive demand

20:00 “Printing Bitcoin with your Bitcoin”

24:59 Bitcoin as the unit of account (Roxom thesis)

34:00 The best Bitcoin investments (NVIDIA example)

38:41 Idle Bitcoin

47:01 The reflexive growth loop of digital credit

54:00 Closing thoughts: think in Bitcoin

Tad Smith joins Joe Burnett to discuss why he still favors bitcoin over gold, how AI is reshaping software, labor, and opportunity, and why he sees the current market setup as increasingly attractive for bitcoin and Strategy. They also dig into Digital Credit, the long-term potential of Strategy’s preferred products, the quantum cloud over bitcoin, and Tad’s new role leading Candy Digital.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

1:28 What First Clicked for Tad on Bitcoin

4:11 Gold vs. Bitcoin Right Now

6:51 Current Market Dynamics, Oil, and Volatility

8:46 Why AI Pressures Traditional Software

10:53 Why Tad Still Likes Palantir

13:03 The Fed, Inflation, and Global Liquidity

17:11 Weakening Labor Markets and Why More Printing Could Follow

19:49 Is AI Replacing White-Collar Work?

22:57 Tad’s Advice for Students and Young Workers

26:14 AI, Abundance, and Choosing Optimism

29:51 Where We Are in the Bitcoin Cycle

32:37 Does Bitcoin Have a Real Floor?

35:46 What Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move Higher

38:52 Morgan Stanley, Quantum Risk, and Clearing the Clouds

46:56 Strategy, STRC, STRK, and Amplified Bitcoin

51:49 Is Stretch Strategy’s iPhone Product?

55:21 Tad on Candy Digital and Digital Collectibles

57:42 Final Thoughts on Fear, Resilience, and Happiness

Market sentiment is weak, volatility is elevated, and capital has nowhere to hide. In this episode, Adrian Morris explains why sentiment drives all markets, how it shapes bitcoin’s price, and what it takes to navigate and withstand the current environment.Read Adrian's research report here: https://tnorth.com/research/sentiment-as-substrate/Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Welcoming Adrian

01:08 Current market conditions and volatility

03:31 Energy, macro pressure, and bitcoin outlook

04:04 Why markets are driven by sentiment

07:54 mNAV, valuation, and sentiment shifts

13:50 The most controversial idea in the paper

15:37 Is valuation ever objective?

20:17 Bitcoin narratives vs market reality

20:35 Traditional finance misses the “first cause”

24:55 Do fundamentals matter or not?

28:46 The “blind ledger” thought experiment

31:23 Warren Buffett and valuation frameworks

34:54 What is reflexivity in markets?

36:46 Leverage, volatility, and bitcoin

39:00 Paper bitcoin and market structure

42:30 Fixed supply and bitcoin valuation

46:15 Efficient market hypothesis critique

49:45 Are free markets truly efficient?

52:13 Why most investors underperform

55:41 Passive investing and market risk

59:32 Digital credit and market perception

1:03:23 Final thoughts on sentiment and pricing

1:04:49 Weathering volatility as an investor

Bitcoin is holding firm as equities, gold, and silver decline amid rising geopolitical tension, signaling a potential shift in how the asset behaves during global stress. We break down the macro forces driving markets, the rise of digital credit as a Bitcoin demand engine, and how AI is accelerating a new financial paradigm.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro and Bitcoin’s move from $90K to ~$70K

03:30 – Key levels, market structure, and has the bottom formed

04:00 – Is Bitcoin broken? The 5-year CAGR debate

07:00 – Why Bitcoin performance depends on timeframe

08:20 – Bitcoin vs war: why it’s holding up

12:00 – Liquidity, narratives, and decoupling from other assets

17:30 – Rising interest rates, oil, and macro pressures

22:50 – Oil spikes and recession risk

28:10 – Digital credit finds product-market fit

32:30 – The Bitcoin demand flywheel and scaling capital

33:20 – Time horizons, volatility, and investor behavior

35:30 – Why digital credit unlocks institutional adoption

37:45 – Track record building during volatility

40:20 – Gold and silver crash: what’s happening

43:30 – Long-term outlook for gold vs Bitcoin

46:20 – AI acceleration and economic impact

49:30 – Rising uncertainty and the future of work

52:00 – AI, money printing, and Bitcoin’s role

54:00 – Final thoughts and where to follow Joe

Digital credit and bitcoin-backed money are emerging as a new foundation for global finance, offering yield, transparency, and programmability. In this episode, Parker from APYX explains how this system works, why it is gaining traction, and how it could drive the next wave of bitcoin adoption.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:33 What is digital money and digital credit

3:01 Parker’s background: from Austrian economics to bitcoin

6:18 Early career, Kraken, and DeFi experience

7:07 Why bitcoin-backed stablecoins matter

10:01 Where yield comes from in digital credit and money

11:27 What APYX is and how it works

15:44 DeFi yield demand and carry trades explained

19:01 Why capital hasn’t fully moved from Athena to APYX

21:38 October crash and Ethena’s role

23:07 Stablecoin depegs and market mechanics

25:10 How APYX maintains its peg

27:46 Floating vs hard pegs (STRC comparison)

28:23 Luna comparison and key differences

31:07 Why digital credit must scale for digital money

33:16 Private credit vs digital credit

35:27 Blockfills bankruptcy and market stress

37:04 Impact of bitcoin ETFs on market structure

40:11 Offshore vs onshore price discovery

41:38 Why bitcoin is trading around $70K

46:31 Derivatives vs spot market imbalance

47:11 Will digital credit drive bitcoin demand

50:13 Why yield products unlock new bitcoin demand

51:39 Where to learn more about APYX

Joe Burnett sits down with Conner Brown of the Bitcoin Policy Institute to discuss the Basel Committee’s 1,250% bitcoin risk weighting and why many view it as a major policy mistake limiting bank adoption. They also explore digital credit, the future of bitcoin in the financial system, and why AI agents may ultimately prefer bitcoin as money.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:49 The Basel 1,250% mistake explained

7:26 How punitive Basel’s bitcoin risk weighting is in practice

12:12 Why Basel treats gold and bitcoin so differently

15:01 What happens if the U.S. changes the rules for banks

20:06 Why America should lead in bitcoin financial products

22:07 Digital credit and why Connor is bullish on it

26:20 Why bitcoin needs to be repackaged for different users

29:10 What money AI agents prefer

33:35 What properties AI agents want in money

37:49 Why bitcoin could give AI agents a capability boost

41:32 How fast AI is advancing

48:20 AI, job displacement, and the reorganization of society

54:51 Key bitcoin policy issues to watch in Washington

1:01:14 Where to follow Connor and Bitcoin Policy Institute

AI is accelerating productivity, compressing margins, and destabilizing labor markets in ways few are tracking closely. We examine the silent depression, liquidity risks, and why a recession could act as a margin call on the U.S. government and ignite the next bitcoin cycle.

Timestamps:

00:00 – AI Is Already Causing Deflation

02:12 – Strange Market Rotation Since November

04:45 – AI Quietly Hitting White-Collar Jobs

06:23 – Software Publishing Down 3.8%

08:21 – Is This Just Getting Started?

10:15 – The Silent Depression Explained

12:10 – Personal Income vs Money Supply Collapse

15:40 – 25 Years of Economic Deterioration

19:49 – Capital vs Labor: The Great Divide

22:01 – Will AI Trigger UBI?

24:00 – Is Socialism Inevitable?

28:50 – Bitcoin vs Bonds: What to Own Now

31:00 – Could Bitcoin Go Four Digits?

34:30 – The Math of a $5 Trillion Deficit

37:15 – Deflation Is the Most Bullish Case for Bitcoin

39:48 – What Triggers “The Big Print”?

44:18 – ISM PMI: Early Cycle or False Signal?

50:28 – M2 Liquidity Is Quietly Drying Up

53:26 – Deaths of Despair Are 3x Great Depression

58:30 – Why Political Volatility Is Coming

1:01:05 – Is There Any Optimistic Outcome?

1:04:00 – How America Fixes This

1:06:52 – Produce More Than You Consume

Rising global uncertainty, fiscal instability, and shifting monetary regimes are reshaping capital allocation across every major asset class. In this conversation, Joe Burnett and Sam Callahan explain why these forces ultimately strengthen the long-term case for bitcoin as the world’s most reliable monetary asset.

Timestamps:

0:00 The price of uncertainty is rising

0:43 Why global uncertainty is bullish for bitcoin

3:11 Ray Dalio, shifting world order, and safe haven rotation

5:23 When did uncertainty actually begin accelerating?

8:20 Fed cuts, rising term premium, and why long yields stay high

12:08 Is this a temporary phase or long-term uncertainty?

16:19 Can long-term treasury yields fall from here?

20:35 Why bonds are a trade, not long-term savings

22:00 The real AI trade: bitcoin

25:26 Gold surge explained through rising uncertainty

28:26 Who is actually buying gold right now?

31:35 Divergence #3: bitcoin vs global liquidity

36:47 Exchange insolvency rumors and contagion risk

39:01 Will bitcoin snap back to liquidity trends?

42:31 Has bitcoin failed as a safe haven?

47:18 Why bitcoin is better technology than gold

48:36 How bad is current bitcoin market sentiment really?

53:32 Why sentiment feels worse than past cycles

57:28 Institutional adoption still early

59:00 Sovereign wealth funds and institutional accumulation

1:03:00 Fiat debasement, fiscal math, and the bitcoin thesis

Root returns to break down where bitcoin stands in the current cycle, using on-chain data, macro signals, and historical patterns to assess whether a bottom is forming. This conversation explores diminishing returns, institutional adoption, long-term holder sell pressure, and why the next major bull market could emerge once scarcity and demand realign.

Timestamps:

00:00 Root returns: where bitcoin is in the cycle

00:44 Four-year cycle still “right on track”

03:49 Spiral chart: where bottoms land in prior cycles

05:10 Breaking the bull trend in late 2025

09:42 What’s driving the current bear market

15:51 Short-term holder bands: mezzanine vs floor

18:50 Realized price at ~$55k and downside scenarios

20:42 Halving cycle vs business cycle (PMI)

24:22 Do PMI and other narratives actually predict price?

31:56 Gold at extreme RSI and why bitcoin behaves differently

37:54 OG holder sell pressure and the “bitcoin IPO phase”

41:02 On-chain value map: undervalued vs heavily undervalued

42:21 Diminishing returns, diminishing drawdowns, and future upside

51:51 Stock-to-flow, power law, and which models matter

54:39 What would break the bitcoin thesis? Hyperbitcoinization timeline

Bitcoin’s volatility is shaking out weak hands and setting the stage for a stronger market structure. In this conversation with CJ from Strategy, we break down why volatility is expected, how bitcoin treasury companies and digital credit are reshaping capital markets, and where institutional adoption goes next. If you want to understand what’s really happening beneath the price action, this episode connects the dots.

00:00 Why bitcoin’s volatility is a feature, not a bug

08:11 Are bitcoin cycles still real or just liquidity driven

14:12 Why billion-dollar buys barely move the bitcoin price

18:00 Digital credit and the new bitcoin capital markets

24:10 From stablecoins to yield-bearing bitcoin money

27:05 The infinitely scalable bitcoin treasury model

31:30 Where digital credit yields go from here

34:00 Could a gold treasury company ever work

39:45 Why bitcoin volatility will keep compressing

43:25 Quantum fears and securing bitcoin for decades

49:15 Biggest myths about bitcoin treasury companies

55:10 Why critics make bitcoin stronger

In this conversation, Joe Burnett sits down with Mark Valek of Incrementum to unpack why today’s debt-based monetary system remains structurally fragile and how it may ultimately be recapitalized. They explore gold and bitcoin as monetary anchors, central bank behavior, inflationary reset scenarios, and why gold has recently outperformed bitcoin despite their shared role as sound money assets.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and the claim that the current monetary system is unsustainable

02:00 From gold-backed money to debt-based money and the exponential debt problem

05:20 Can the system break, or can fiat last longer than expected?

08:20 How fiat systems may be recapitalized through gold and sound assets

10:48 Do central bankers still understand gold and sound money?

13:30 Long-term outlook: deficits, inflation, and social consequences

20:14 How far gold and bitcoin could run in a recapitalization scenario

24:34 Who is buying gold and why the gold market regime has changed

29:00 Total gold market size and liquidity considerations

32:26 Why bitcoin has lagged gold and how to interpret the divergence

37:34 Closing thoughts and where to find Mark Valek’s work

Gold and silver are sending a signal that few are prepared to hear, while bitcoin quietly trades far below its long-term implications. In this conversation, Joe Consorti breaks down sovereign flows, monetary metals, yen carry dynamics, and why bitcoin’s underperformance may be the setup, not the conclusion. If hard money is being repriced globally, the ceiling for bitcoin just moved much higher.

Timestamps:

00:00 The Surge of Gold and Silver Prices

05:30 Understanding the Shift in Global Monetary Dynamics

10:14 Bitcoin's Performance in a Changing Market

17:40 The Future of Bitcoin and Its Market Potential

27:58 Bitcoin and Gold Parity: A New Era

31:51 The Yen Carry Trade: Implications for Global Markets

36:51 The Future of the Federal Reserve: Rate Cuts and Inflation

44:56 AI and Its Impact on Productivity and Asset Valuation

Bitcoin did not rally in 2025, yet the foundations for the next decade were laid quietly and decisively. This conversation breaks down why ETFs ended the four-year cycle, how the global collateral crisis points toward bitcoin, and why AI-driven abundance makes fixed digital scarcity more valuable over time. It is a long-term, low-time preference discussion on where capital ultimately settles when incentives, regulation, and technology align.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Why bitcoin underperformed in 2025 but fundamentals strengthened

03:06 - Why the four-year bitcoin cycle is ending

05:17 - ETFs changed bitcoin’s market structure permanently

07:33 - How fast bitcoin adoption is really happening

10:13 - What if a bitcoin ETF launched in 2013?

12:18 - Strategic bitcoin reserves and unmet price expectations

15:12 - Why bitcoin supply no longer matters

17:44 - The global collateral crisis and why bitcoin solves it

23:32 - Larry Fink, ETFs, and financializing bitcoin

25:26 - The bamboo analogy for bitcoin’s next growth phase

28:50 - Why a US bitcoin reserve would trigger global adoption

36:19 - Liquidity, manufacturing, and a new economic cycle

40:14 - AI, abundance, and why scarcity makes bitcoin inevitable

47:27 - Bitcoin treasury companies, sentiment, and opportunity

57:57 - Why bitcoin reaching $10 million is plausible

In this episode, Luke Gromen explains why U.S. fiscal math is breaking down, why the Fed is being forced toward monetization, and why real assets are quietly reasserting themselves as paper systems weaken. We discuss the growing divide between the financial world and the physical world, China’s long-term commodity strategy, AI-driven labor disruption, and what these shifts mean for bitcoin, gold, and institutional capital.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and setting the macro context

00:50 - Trump, the Fed, and why deficit monetization is unavoidable

03:20 - Why U.S. fiscal math is already broken

06:40 - The split between the paper economy and the physical world

09:10 - How China traded dollars for commodities and leverage

12:40 - Why the dollar no longer guarantees access to real resources

13:55 - Supreme Court tariffs and whether policy choices still matter

15:10 - Why markets remain complacent despite rising global risk

18:05 - Where real stress is showing up beneath the surface

21:15 - AI as a productivity shock to white-collar employment

24:00 - Lessons from China joining the WTO and job displacement

26:45 - Political consequences of economic dislocation

29:10 - Deflationary crash versus inflationary reset scenarios

32:50 - Why execution and communication determine outcomes

34:40 - Why Luke reduced his bitcoin exposure

37:05 - Bitcoin versus gold and changing macro relationships

40:40 - Institutional behavior and long-term technical signals

44:00 - What would bring Luke back into bitcoin

48:15 - How low bitcoin could fall in a deflationary shock

52:35 - Unknown risks and why position sizing matters

56:20 - Can bitcoin surpass gold’s total market value

Bitcoin stands as a transformational tool for saving and capital allocation in a digital world. Rajat Soni explains how legacy finance models break down when applied to bitcoin and why the characteristics of money matter more than traditional valuation models. Viewers will gain a clear framework for thinking in decades and for understanding how Wall Street will eventually reprice the economy in bitcoin terms.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and goals for the episode

01:06 - Rajat Soni’s background in fixed income management

03:04 - Discovering bitcoin through reading The bitcoin standard

05:18 - Leaving traditional finance and finding purpose in bitcoin

07:15 - Origins of the CFA Institute investigations

10:01 - How loan collateral works in bitcoin

12:19 - Why bitcoin functions as money

16:30 - Misconceptions about intrinsic value

18:09 - Characteristics of effective money

22:00 - Global demand for bitcoin as a medium of exchange

25:38 - Real estate as a savings vehicle

31:01 - Incentives shaping economies with bitcoin

34:19 - Bitcoin’s long-term outlook

36:34 - Integration of bitcoin and digital credit markets

40:06 - Future implications for investors

47:51 - Demand shocks and supply tightness

56:07 - Digital credit instruments and bitcoin

57:12 - Closing remarks and where to follow Rajat’s work

MSTR’s bitcoin strategy is no longer a theory. It is a proven capital markets machine reshaping how corporations accumulate bitcoin through preferred equity, digital credit, and disciplined balance-sheet design. In this episode, we examine why volatility is being monetized, why fixed income is the next frontier, and why this strategy is built to compound over decades, not quarters.

00:00 - Why MicroStrategy’s bitcoin strategy was misunderstood

02:30 - The 2024 blow-off top that ignited bitcoin treasury adoption

05:00 - Why price action is the true signal for corporate bitcoin adoption

07:45 - How the strategy model survived the bear market

09:15 - The pivot from convertible bonds to perpetual preferred equity

12:10 - Why preferred equity works better in volatile markets

15:00 - Digital credit and unlocking the $300 trillion fixed-income market

18:45 - How long the bitcoin capital-markets arbitrage can last

22:45 - Bitcoin’s end game, AI, and long-term growth limits

27:20 - What digital credit looks like in the next bitcoin bull market

31:30 - Is BTC Yield a flawed or misunderstood metric

36:45 - Digital money, stablecoins, and building on bitcoin credit

44:00 - Has Saylor actually changed the core bitcoin strategy

49:15 - OG selling, volatility suppression, and market structure

54:30 - Why holding a USD reserve strengthens the bitcoin strategy

Bitcoin’s security assumptions are entering a new era as quantum computing moves from theory toward reality. In this episode, Hunter Beast explains which bitcoin are actually at risk, why most supply remains safe, and how Bitcoin can evolve without compromising its core principles. This is a sober, long-term discussion on cryptography, state-level threats, and why Bitcoin remains the strongest monetary system for the decades ahead.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Welcome and why quantum matters for bitcoin

04:28 - What quantum computers are and why they are different

10:13 - How quantum computers break cryptography

17:35 - Why quantum risk specifically matters for bitcoin

19:44 - Which bitcoin are actually vulnerable today

23:28 - Why Taproot changes the quantum threat model

27:26 - High-level recap of bitcoin’s quantum exposure

30:14 - NSA, NIST, and why government cryptography cannot be trusted

32:40 - Why hash-based cryptography may be bitcoin’s safest path

40:39 - Broken money, central banking, and why bitcoin matters

51:56 - What the bitcoin community should focus on next

54:43 - The “quantum discount” on bitcoin’s future value

57:39 - Why bitcoin survives even state-level adversaries

01:00:06 - Final thoughts and where to follow Hunter Beast

Bitcoin is entering a new phase as the Fed quietly shifts back toward balance sheet expansion and the market begins to reveal which assets can survive a decade of structural monetary distortion. In this episode Joe Consorti breaks down why liquidity is returning, why the four year cycle may be fading, and why bitcoin remains the strongest asset in a world where Main Street weakens and Wall Street inflates. We walk through the signals that matter most for 2026 and why disciplined, long horizon investors should stay focused on bitcoin's role as the apex monetary asset.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Joe Consorti returns and reflects on past bitcoin calls

01:02 – Why the Fed’s new policy feels like 2019 QE-lite

03:29 – Market reaction: stocks rip, bitcoin lags

05:17 – Trump’s likely new Fed chair and what it means for bitcoin

07:35 – Why the Fed’s “brakes” no longer work

09:37 – Fiscal dominance: Treasury and Fed become one

12:33 – The K-shaped economy explained

15:53 – Why the Fed always sacrifices Main Street for Wall Street

17:22 – Bitcoin as the escape from financial repression

21:04 – Digital credit and how bitcoin flips bond markets

25:39 – Bitcoin’s sensitivity to financial conditions

28:53 – Why liquidity expansion historically ignites bitcoin

31:39 – Credit spreads: the number one risk signal for bitcoin

33:11 – Bitcoin outlook for early 2026

39:11 – Is the four-year cycle dead or alive?

44:24 – ETFs and new buyers reshape bitcoin market structure

49:38 – Why bitcoin corrections should be shallower this cycle

52:23 – Final thoughts and what to expect in Q1

Bitcoin is entering a new phase where old narratives are breaking down and real macro forces are taking over. In this episode, John Haar explains why the halving cycle is losing its power, how corporate balance sheets and global credit markets are setting the stage for explosive long-term adoption, and why 2026 may redefine every prior price cycle.Timestamps:00:00 - Intro and 2025 bitcoin price action & sentiment02:05 - Why this is not a repeat of the 2021 cycle top09:44 - Are halvings still driving bitcoin or are they becoming irrelevant?12:02 - John’s base case: new ATH above $130k in 2026 and the end of the 4-year cycle meme19:15 - Bitcoin vs Mag 7: why it’s still the best debasement trade in a passive world30:24 - Why “credit came before money” makes no sense logically33:18 - MMT, government IOUs, and the push to normalize debt-based money36:27 - What drives the next wave of bitcoin adoption and who joins next40:10 - What credit looks like on a bitcoin standard vs today’s dollar debt system44:52 - How corporate debt issuance is a speculative attack on the dollar48:45 - Bitcoin treasury companies: from overheated hype to “ice cold” sentiment50:25 - Can $300T of fixed income eventually flow into bitcoin-backed digital credit?58:26 - Why strategy is stockpiling 1–2 years of USD reserves for its preferreds59:38 - Catalysts for the next bitcoin bull run into 2026

In this episode, Stephan Livera breaks down how digital credit, Stretch, and amplified treasury strategies are pulling future buying pressure into the present, why Core versus Knots has become more noise than signal, and how miner incentives, spam debates, and quantum FUD fit into the bigger picture. We dig into the power law model, medium-of-exchange progress, and the mechanics behind volatility itself to understand where bitcoin is truly headed as adoption accelerates.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:32 - What digital credit actually means

02:04 - Digital credit and the speculative attack

05:16 - What amplified bitcoin really is

06:08 - Why bitcoin’s volatility feels so brutal

09:35 - Can past performance predict bitcoin’s future?

14:24 - Why the power law model matters

15:02 - Will treasury companies amplify volatility?

19:42 - Digital credit’s reflexive feedback loop

23:53 - Bitcoin Core vs. Bitcoin Knots explained

36:53 - Quantum computing: real risk or distant FUD?

43:21 - Is bitcoin finally becoming a medium of exchange?

47:54 - Are four-year cycles real or just memes?

Bitcoin just had one of its worst days of the year, yet the story beneath the surface tells something far more important. In this episode, Joe Consorti explains why the sell-off may be a sign of strength, how long-term holders are quietly redistributing their coins, and why this cycle is unlike any before. We explore the shifting macro landscape, the rise of socialism as a symptom of broken money, and how concentrated equity markets reveal deeper structural fragility. Joe also breaks down why bitcoin tracks the business cycle more than the halving cycle and why easing financial conditions could set the stage for its next major rally.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Bitcoin’s second-worst day of 2025

02:31 - Why $95,000 is the key level to watch

10:04 - Why market sentiment feels terrible despite strong equities

14:29 - Bitcoin’s “silent IPO” and the great redistribution

19:55 - How bitcoin’s wealth inequality is actually shrinking

26:30 - Rise of socialism and the downfall of New York City

34:15 - The dangerous concentration in the S&P 500

39:10 - Nvidia’s $5 trillion milestone and what it signals

42:47 - Treasury Secretary praises bitcoin while government shuts down

50:54 - Bitcoin’s price follows the business cycle, not the halving cycle

53:37 - Trump, Powell, and the coming asset-price melt-up

A new era of business is emerging, led not by Wall Street but by bitcoin. In this episode, Kenny Alves explains how his family’s self-storage company is becoming a bitcoin treasury, converting cash flow into sound money and preparing to borrow against bitcoin to expand real assets. We discuss why small business adoption is the next frontier of hyperbitcoinization, how bitcoin’s volatility is simply a measure of its growth, and why AI and robotics could accelerate productivity in the bitcoin economy. Kenny reveals how pairing bitcoin with cash-generating businesses could create an unstoppable engine of compounding wealth.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro: how a small business merged with bitcoin

1:10 - Turning self storage into a bitcoin treasury

2:45 - Why banks are killing safe deposit boxes

5:35 - Refinancing real estate with bitcoin loans

7:10 - The two models of bitcoin treasury companies

10:00 - Using bitcoin as productive collateral

12:16 - Why bitcoin treasury companies will dominate every industry

14:10 - Bitcoin as pristine collateral for a new credit system

19:15 - Why lenders still charge 10% on bitcoin loans

21:00 - The quiet bitcoin shift happening in Washington

23:00 - How small businesses can spark mass bitcoin adoption

27:00 - Which companies should adopt a bitcoin treasury first

31:00 - Why bitcoin’s volatility is just rapid growth

35:00 - Nvidia hits $5T: what it means for bitcoin

36:00 - How AI is reshaping business and productivity

39:00 - The coming wave of humanoid robots

44:40 - The long-term vision: bitcoin, AI, and self storage

What if bitcoin replaced the foundation of global money? In this episode, Fred Krueger explains what a $10 million bitcoin world could look like, why traditional assets may underperform under a hard-money system, and how AI and automation could reshape society in the process. We examine the timeline for bitcoin’s full monetization, how deflation can drive innovation instead of destruction, and why the 60/40 portfolio no longer works. Fred shares his framework for applying the Kelly criteria, the importance of ETFs in accelerating adoption, and how this transition could spark the greatest wealth transfer in history.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro and welcome to The Mustard Seed Podcast

00:37 – What a $10 million bitcoin world could look like

02:10 – Why bitcoin and the dollar will likely coexist

06:54 – Why real estate and stocks could underperform in the bitcoin era

09:02 – Why markets haven’t front-run $10 million bitcoin yet

16:59 – Can a deflationary money like bitcoin support growth?

20:42 – Life and credit in a hard-money system

26:56 – Can we reach $10 million bitcoin without a crisis?

33:01 – AI and automation meet bitcoin: a new society emerges

37:24 – Why the 60/40 portfolio is broken in the bitcoin era

42:39 – How yield fits in retirement portfolios

44:39 – Allocating 70–75% to bitcoin: Fred’s case for the Kelly criteria

45:20 – Will bitcoin wealth concentrate or distribute over time?

48:33 – The ETF wave and the next class of bitcoin investors

53:29 – Would Fred Krueger ever sell bitcoin to buy stocks?

58:01 – The 70/30 portfolio: bitcoin plus passion projects

01:03:00 – How bitcoin and AI together will create mass abundance

01:08:47 – Why Fred’s book passed Ray Dalio on Amazon

Is the global monetary system is cracking? In this episode, Joe Consorti explains why gold’s record-breaking surge is a warning signal, how sovereigns are accelerating a shift in global finance, and why bitcoin may soon explode after months of consolidation. We cover the Fed’s race to respond faster to every crisis, what renewed liquidity means for risk assets, and how monetary easing could fuel the next leg of bitcoin adoption. Joe also breaks down Strategy’s STRC and why digital credit could redefine yield as capital moves from fiat to bitcoin-based instruments.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro and welcome to The Mustard Seed Podcast

00:35 - Why gold is up 62% in 2025

03:18 - The global monetary reordering underway

06:14 - Why bitcoin can still move violently higher

11:13 - Why bitcoin beats gold as a store of value

13:21 - How banks now view bitcoin as part of the gold trade

16:20 - Why gold is outperforming bitcoin this year

20:35 - How the Fed, shutdowns, and tariffs weigh on bitcoin

24:05 - Why the Fed’s crisis response time keeps accelerating

29:17 - Why the Fed can’t allow a protracted bear market

35:16 - Comparing 2021’s tightening to today’s easing cycle

40:10 - What happens when liquidity returns to markets

44:58 - Introducing digital credit and MicroStrategy’s STRC

48:39 - Why STRC could attract yield-hungry investors

52:09 - Why bitcoin’s next breakout could be explosive

54:29 - Final thoughts and closing advice from Joe Consorti

Bitcoin is becoming the foundation of a new financial and technological order. In this episode, Christian Catalini shares why open networks must win over corporate blockchains, how the Lightning Network and Spark are unlocking true global payments, and what lessons he learned building Libra inside Facebook. We explore the limits of stablecoins, the risks of leverage, and why proof of work may be humanity’s greatest defense in a world racing toward automation.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Welcome and guest intro

00:20 - The MIT bitcoin experiment

02:09 - Why Christian is a bitcoin pragmatist

02:30 - Linux analogy for bitcoin

04:11 - Making Lightning Network enterprise grade

05:37 - Before Lightspark: MIT professor to fintech researcher

08:12 - Inside Project Libra

10:04 - Building on permissionless open networks

11:10 - When block subsidies fall to zero

15:06 - How AI reshapes work and value

17:31 - Why AI agents should not hold wallets

18:40 - Micropayments for agents with Lightning

20:29 - Are we plateauing or accelerating in AI

22:49 - Redefining capitalism for the AI era

24:18 - The real AI risk: unknown preferences

26:51 - bitcoin and money in an automated world

28:24 - Proof of work as time and energy

31:32 - Is AI bigger than bitcoin

32:27 - The current state of the Lightning Network

44:24 - Thoughts on Saylor’s preferred equity

47:40 - Closing call to builders to choose open networks

Wall Street is being reshaped as bitcoin ETFs smash records and force traditional investors to pay attention. In this episode, James Seyffart explains why demand has blown past even BlackRock’s expectations, who is really buying these ETFs, and how trillions in advisor-controlled assets could soon flow into bitcoin. We examine Michael Saylor’s bold strategy, why treasury companies trade at premiums, and the growing debate over whether ETFs suppress volatility or create “paper bitcoin.” The conversation also explores passive investing’s hidden distortions, the fight for S&P 500 inclusion, and how corporate finance is quietly accelerating bitcoin’s march into the global system.Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:00 - Why bitcoin ETFs shocked even BlackRock2:15 - How trad fi views bitcoin today4:35 - Who is really buying the bitcoin ETFs6:00 - Advisors vs hedge funds and retail9:10 - UAE sovereign wealth fund steps in10:13 - How big can bitcoin ETFs get12:00 - Why advisors still face restrictions14:23 - Could bitcoin ETFs reach $1 trillion16:00 - bitcoin vs gold ETFs explained18:43 - Michael Saylor’s reputation in trad fi21:00 - Why people are fascinated by Saylor’s strategy23:04 - Have ETFs reduced bitcoin’s volatility26:44 - Are ETFs creating “paper bitcoin”30:07 - Inside the bitcoin ETF options market32:29 - bitcoin treasury companies explained38:25 - Why strategy wasn’t added to the S&P 50045:03 - Passive vs active investing explained51:37 - The bull market subsidy in asset management1:00:06 - Closing thoughts

Bitcoin’s future may not follow the familiar boom-and-bust cycles investors expect. In this episode, Jesse Myers explains why the market structure is shifting, the importance of positioning yourself to survive catastrophic drawdowns, and how treasury companies are reshaping investor psychology. We cover the rise of amplified bitcoin exposure, the surprising strength of gold, and what total global wealth trends reveal about bitcoin’s trajectory. Jesse also unpacks the key KPI for treasury companies, why sentiment drives massive swings in premiums, and what the world will find most shocking about bitcoin adoption in the decade ahead.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:32 - Are bitcoin cycles changing forever

3:18 - Why halvings may matter less in a maturing market

5:30 - Could treasury companies drive parabolic bitcoin bull runs

7:05 - Why Saylor moved from debt to perpetual preferreds

9:34 - Investor backlash and misunderstanding of strategy

11:13 - How investor bases shift as bitcoin treasury companies grow

14:14 - Amplified volatility in bitcoin treasury companies

17:26 - What today’s low bitcoin volatility signals

20:45 - Gold’s surge and what it means for bitcoin

22:40 - Total global wealth and bitcoin’s share of it

31:18 - Where global wealth is flowing today

32:17 - What is bitcoin’s long-term growth rate

36:07 - Deflation and craftsmanship in a bitcoin standard

40:03 - The key KPI for bitcoin treasury companies

55:22 - What will surprise everyone about bitcoin in 10 years

59:35 - Where to learn more about Jesse Myers

Bitcoin is infiltrating the heart of global finance, with index funds on the verge of being forced to hold it. In this episode, Pierre Rochard breaks down the rise of bitcoin treasury companies, why Strategy’s playbook is so powerful, and how S&P 500 inclusion could accelerate adoption worldwide. We explore the misunderstood security budget debate, the reality of miner incentives, and why corporate balance sheets are fueling a long-term speculative attack.Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:26 - Is the bitcoin treasury company space too crowded2:12 - How much do companies influence mNAV4:16 - Can Strategy own too much bitcoin7:29 - Why haven’t other giants copied Saylor’s playbook10:09 - Why apple and amazon won’t go all in on bitcoin10:52 - The truth about bitcoin’s security budget16:25 - Why low transaction fees are actually good18:49 - Bitcoin’s militia model for security20:09 - Why most bitcoiners misunderstand the fee market23:13 - Core vs Knots debate explained26:20 - What happens if miners filter transactions29:36 - Why filtering doesn’t stop censorship resistance33:39 - The real problem with mining centralization35:26 - Will strategy be added to the S&P 50037:42 - Why S&P inclusion would be massive for bitcoin40:21 - Financial exposure vs holding your own keys45:16 - Should bitcoiners fear a 6102 seizure48:24 - Is the speculative attack finally here?52:15 - Why we may be past the four year cycles54:05 - Pierre’s bitcoin bond company and podcast updates55:27 - Closing thoughts

What if corporations began treating bitcoin as their benchmark for capital allocation? In this episode, Nick Colletta, Treasurer at Semler Scientific, shares his journey from Deloitte Digital Assets to leading one of the first public bitcoin treasury companies, explaining why bitcoin per share is the key metric, how to manage volatility, and why security is paramount. He also discusses the early stage of corporate adoption, future treasury innovations, and his advice for professionals looking to build a career in bitcoin.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Nick’s background in accounting and Deloitte digital assets

2:38 - Inside Deloitte’s crypto work and becoming bitcoin only

5:02 - Why Nick joined Semler Scientific as treasurer

5:40 - First encounter with bitcoin and early lessons

7:07 - Why bitcoin is the best money

8:37 - Why bitcoin matters for corporations

10:20 - How bitcoin fortifies corporate balance sheets

11:25 - Explaining Semler’s bitcoin treasury strategy

12:56 - Key metrics for evaluating bitcoin treasury companies

15:03 - Intelligent leverage and long duration financing

16:08 - How to think about NAV premiums

17:05 - Bitcoin as the hurdle rate for capital allocation

18:32 - How early we are in bitcoin corporate adoption

19:38 - What really drives bitcoin adoption

22:12 - Tools for managing a bitcoin treasury

23:36 - Saylor’s playbook and future treasury innovations

25:15 - How Semler manages bitcoin’s volatility

28:16 - Why securing bitcoin is the top priority

30:07 - Proof of reserves, audits, and bitcoin treasuries

32:17 - Bitcoin’s path: from individuals to corporations to governments

33:21 - Is Wall Street co-opting bitcoin, or vice versa?

35:05 - Why Saylor shares his entire strategy with competitors

37:23 - Why more companies haven’t copied Saylor yet

38:09 - The future of bitcoin treasury companies

39:09 - Will bitcoin ever see another brutal bear market?

40:35 - Is the bull market over?

40:58 - What excites Nick most about the future

42:43 - Advice for young professionals entering the bitcoin industry

44:05 - Closing thoughts and where to follow Nick

When market sentiment turns sour even as bitcoin trades above $100k, how should investors think about the future of bitcoin treasury companies? In this episode, we sit down with Adrian Morris to unpack the dynamics behind mNAV guidance, ATM usage, and the broader psychology shaping these equities.Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:50 - Bitcoin hits new all time high, sentiment turns bearish2:23 - Why the market is still strong above $100k3:40 - Bitcoin treasuries as leveraged plays4:21 - Strategy’s mNAV guidance explained6:09 - Did Strategy walk back its guidance?10:27 - Why issuing mNAV guidance was a mistake13:22 - The danger of listening to Twitter noise15:24 - Does this misstep change the long term thesis?18:05 - Strategy as one of the best performing stocks of the decade19:25 - Cooperative dynamics of Bitcoin treasury companies21:21 - Adversarial investors and market psychology23:01 - Bitcoin as signal, treasury companies as amplitude26:25 - How to think about high versus low mNAV multiples29:30 - Is the ATM really driving share price down?33:00 - How management will likely use the ATM going forward35:27 - What could reverse market sentiment38:47 - Why other Bitcoin treasuries may copy preferred equity43:42 - Risks of paying preferred dividends in a bear market47:03 - Strategy’s survival through past bear markets50:23 - Why preferred equity may strengthen resilience51:04 - The key KPI for Bitcoin treasury companies53:51 - Long term outlook for Bitcoin and treasury companies59:19 - Closing thoughts and where to follow Adrian

What if a company could turn Wall Street’s incentives toward accelerating bitcoin adoption? In this episode, we sit down with CJ from Strategy’s bitcoin treasury team to break down how the world’s largest bitcoin treasury company is innovating in capital markets. CJ shares his path from Harvard Business School to Strategy, the key KPI that matters most for bitcoin treasury companies, and why outperforming bitcoin over the long term is the true benchmark.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:31 - Harvard to Strategy: CJ’s bitcoin treasury role

2:24 - The most important KPI for bitcoin treasury companies

5:14 - Why outperforming bitcoin is the ultimate benchmark

6:59 - Short-term price dislocations vs long-term performance

9:24 - Saylor’s forever time horizon

11:00 - Why volatility and volume matter for capital markets strategy

13:08 - The ideal bitcoin strategy for emerging treasury companies

16:04 - Why preferred equity is replacing convertible notes

19:03 - How Strategy designs its preferred equity products

21:02 - Should other companies copy Strategy’s preferred equity playbook?

23:17 - How leverage supports accretive dilution

26:58 - Who’s buying Strategy’s preferred equity products?

30:28 - The “iPhone moment” for bitcoin-backed securities

33:22 - How Strategy manages price stability for preferred equity

35:57 - Could stablecoin issuers adopt bitcoin-backed preferred equity?

38:03 - Credit amplification vs “speculative attack”

40:41 - Harvard’s $100M bitcoin buy

44:19 - Bitcoin’s terminal growth rate and the S&P 500

47:07 - Why bitcoin treasury companies trade at a NAV premium

49:18 - Strategy’s new mNAV issuance guidance

53:39 - The digital transformation of investor relations

56:17 - Why bitcoin is now Wall Street’s biggest fee generator

58:51 - Closing thoughts and where to find CJ

What happens when a Wall Street quant abandons the fiat casino to chase the hardest money on earth? We unpack Matt McDonagh’s journey from machine-read value screens to an AI-driven venture thesis, tracing how warped price signals, momentum trading, and excess money printing pushed him toward bitcoin’s decentralized rails and a future where technological abundance meets absolute scarcity.Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:55 - Investment banker beginnings02:15 - Building a machine-read hedge fund04:10 - First brush with bitcoin at Princeton Club06:45 - Hedge fund collapses, tech pivots09:30 - Counting missed satoshis and opportunity cost11:12 - Ai and bitcoin: dueling singularities17:45 - Peering around the technological corner22:07 - Centralization versus decentralization26:21 - Fiat distortions and the asset owner advantage30:17 - Real estate as a leaky store of value35:14 - Technology deflation meets absolute scarcity39:56 - Robots, bio-ceramics, and cheaper housing46:06 - Suppressed tech, electrification, and AI parallels49:15 - Infinite abundance paired with bitcoin scarcity50:52 - Satoshi theories: AI or state project?52:34 - Closing thoughts and thanks

What if Strategy’s bitcoin strategy is just the beginning? In this episode, we sit down with Tad Smith, former CEO of Sotheby’s and Madison Square Garden, to explore why bitcoin is resonating with a generation priced out of the system. Tad explains how liquidity drives asset markets, how bitcoin is quietly demonetizing art and education, and why he believes consolidation is coming for bitcoin treasury companies. We discuss Michael Saylor’s latest innovations like Stretch, what makes a credible mNAV premium, and why bitcoin may be transforming into the foundation for a new financial system. Tad also shares his personal investing framework, what he would do if he were running Semler Scientific, and how his generation failed the next one.Timestamps:00:00 - Intro01:00 - How Tad thinks about macro cycles and investing03:22 - Why liquidity is the key macro signal05:20 - When Tad takes profits and how he does it06:30 - Where he parks cash short term and why07:42 - Why gold is useful—but only short term08:10 - Are we near the end of the current bitcoin bull market?10:07 - Why Tad thinks we may be in the final minutes of this cycle11:20 - Long-term vs short-term bitcoin investment mindset12:34 - Could bitcoin ever crash like 2022 again?13:05 - Black swans and the evolution of bitcoin’s investor base14:37 - What happens to money market funds if rates are cut?16:11 - Interest rates and bitcoin-linked preferred stocks17:17 - Why Tad prefers common shares over preferreds18:35 - Stretch, bitcoin, and the birth of a stablecoin?20:19 - Is MicroStrategy becoming the new JP Morgan?22:09 - Why bitcoin resonates with younger generations25:22 - How money printing punishes the working class28:26 - The case for a new monetary system32:35 - Why bitcoin treasury companies are booming34:35 - What Tad would prioritize at Semler Scientific35:46 - Would Sotheby’s or MSG have adopted bitcoin?39:20 - Why every investment must outperform bitcoin’s hurdle rate41:09 - The future of bitcoin treasury companies42:53 - Why consolidation is inevitable44:09 - How Tad thinks about MNAV premiums47:41 - Is bitcoin demonetizing art and education?50:45 - Tad sold his wine collection for bitcoin51:18 - Final thoughts and closing remarks

Bitcoin is eating the financial system. In this episode, Michael lays out the blueprint for bitcoin treasury companies and explains why preferred equity is the key to unlocking trillions in passive capital. We explore how MicroStrategy’s strategy could be copied, why bitcoin should outperform the S&P 500 long term, and how capital markets are being reshaped around digital scarcity. Michael also breaks down how to weaponize BTC-backed credit to protect NAV, force short squeezes, and magnetize index fund flows.TIMESTAMPS:0:00 – Intro1:00 – First priority as director of bitcoin strategy3:11 – Should bitcoin companies copy MSTR’s preferreds?5:02 – Structuring credit: BTC ratings from 2 to 106:25 – Long-term CAGR for bitcoin vs S&P 5008:28 – Why bitcoin has fewer risks than stocks10:36 – The global index with no counterparty risk15:14 – Is bitcoin a global productivity index?16:56 – Will MSTR join the S&P 500?18:14 – Why Vanguard owns MSTR19:23 – Unlocking passive capital for bitcoin21:14 – Why BTC companies magnetize capital23:24 – Mag 7 adoption playbook: fast vs slow25:47 – Most CEOs don’t want the money27:15 – Who should adopt bitcoin—and who won’t29:20 – Why MSTR is going all-in on preferreds31:21 – Preferreds are better than convertibles32:32 – Will BTC companies still trade above NAV in bear markets?34:09 – Why 2022 was a crypto-catalyzed bear market35:14 – Difference between 1.1x and 100x leverage37:07 – How to defend BTC NAV with credit instruments39:14 – How to create a bitcoin short squeeze41:20 – Why shorts don’t have the courage43:20 – The future of BTC-backed credit and equity45:04 – A new theory of bitcoin corporate finance49:30 – Copy MSTR: it’s good for everyone50:26 – Harvard’s outdated bitcoin case study52:16 – Why the smartest firms are making bad moves54:16 – Why academics ignore strategy’s success55:15 – How the world could look in four years57:09 – Final thoughts and wrap-up

Hello everyone! I’m excited to relaunch my podcast under a new name:

The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and contrarian long-term thinking podcast.

My first real job out of graduate school was in technology consulting at Ernst & Young. After gaining a little experience there, I made the decision to jump full-time into bitcoin. One of the most valuable things I did early on was host a bitcoin podcast. It allowed me to learn directly from some of the most intelligent minds in the space and build lasting relationships.

The podcast is my way of staying connected to the most thoughtful people in bitcoin. It helps me better understand how capital is flowing into bitcoin and how the smartest leaders are positioning themselves as bitcoin continues to reshape global capital markets.

In my role as Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, my top priorities are strategic execution of bitcoin acquisitions and generating stockholder value. These conversations sharpen my thinking, surface new ideas, and help educate a broader audience about both bitcoin and Semler Scientific.

I believe we’re still incredibly early in global bitcoin adoption. I think thoughtful dialogue and deeper understanding can help accelerate hyperbitcoinization, and this podcast is one way I plan to contribute. The first episode is coming soon, and it will be with Michael Saylor. If you have specific questions you’d like me to ask, let me know.

Please subscribe if you enjoy my work.