The Macro Trading Floor – Details, episodes & analysis

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus. Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798 Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades? FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/

Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info! In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show. Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets. Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets? Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com

Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen: https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256 In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes. The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward. Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications. Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!) Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time. - Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator - Link to Bill Bishop piece on China:  https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs - Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well. Is the market ready for a regime switch? Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength. Links mentioned in the show: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/ https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.  Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!

The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation? Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun! And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/

This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?