On today’s podcast, we’ll chat with two global asset-allocation specialists, Omar Aguilar from Charles Schwab and Sébastien Page from T. Rowe Price. Omar is CEO and chief investment officer for Schwab Asset Management. Before joining Schwab in 2011, he worked at a variety of firms including Financial Engines, ING Investment Management, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch Investment Management, and Bankers Trust.

And Sébastien Page is head of Global Multi-Asset Investing at T. Rowe Price, where he oversees a team of investment professionals dedicated to the firm’s multi-asset portfolios. He’s a member of T. Rowe Price’s Asset Allocation Committee, and he’s also a member of the Management Committee of T. Rowe Price Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2015, Sébastien was an executive vice president at Pimco, where he led a team focused on research and development of multi-asset solutions. And he was a senior managing director at State Street Global Markets before that.

Background

Bios: Omar Aguilar

Sébastien Page

Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation, by Sébastien Page

Current Economic Environment

“Eight Ways RIAs, Investors View Markets Over the Next Year: Schwab,” by Dinah Wisenberg Brin, thinkadvisor.com, June 14, 2024.

“The Fed Will Now Focus on Unemployment and Labor Markets, Says Charles Schwab’s Omar Aguilar,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, July 15, 2024.

“All Eyes on Central Banks,” 2024 Global Market Outlook Midyear Update, troweprice.com, June 2024.

“Inflation’s Ripple Effect on the Economy,” Market Overtime interview with Omar Aguilar, youtube.com.

“Why a Weaker Jobs Market Is Sparking Recession Fears,” by Scott Horsley, npr.org, Aug. 2, 2024.

“Inflation Coming Down Too Fast Could Hurt Earnings, Says T.Rowe Price’s Sebastien Page,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, Jan. 30, 2024.

“The Four Horsemen of the Recession,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 2, 2023.

“US Economy in ‘Solid Position’ Despite Slowing Job Growth, Says Schwab’s Aguilar,” Video interview on Squawk on the Street, cnbc.com, Aug. 4, 2023.

“Special Topic: Can the Fed Cut Rates With Financial Conditions This Loose?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 27, 2024.

“2024 Global Market Outlook: Tectonic Shifts Create New Opportunities,” by Arif Husain, Sébastien Page, and Justin Thomson, linkedin.com, Dec. 21, 2023.

Asset Allocation

“Perspective: Asset Classes Versus Risk Factors or Asset Classes and Risk Factors?” by Sébastien Page, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Dec. 31, 2023.

“The Myth of Diversification Reconsidered,” by William Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman, Sébastien Page, and David Turkington, The Journal of Portfolio Management, August 2021.

“Personalized Target-Date Funds,” by Kobby Aboagye, Sébastien Page, Louisa Schafer, and James Tzitzouris, The Journal of Portfolio Management, March 2024.

“The Hottest Debate in Asset Allocation: Value vs. Growth Stocks,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, April 25, 2024.

“The Sector X-Ray,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Aug. 31, 2023.

Valuation and Interest Rates

“When Valuation Fails,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, May 29, 2024.

“Relative Valuation: A Crucial but Imperfect Guide,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Feb. 8, 2024.

“Is the Market Broadening?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Jan. 8, 2024.

“Let’s Get Real (About Interest Rates),” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, March 7, 2024.

Other

“The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Definition and How It’s Calculated,” by Mallika Mitra, Investopedia.com, Aug. 5, 2024.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Jackie Cummings Koski. She is a certified financial planner, and she is the author of a new book, F.I.R.E. For Dummies. FIRE stands for financial independence, retire early. Jackie is also the co-host of a podcast, Catching Up to FI, geared toward people getting a late start on financial independence. She is founder and CEO of Money Letters, LLC, which is geared toward providing financial education. She received her undergraduate degree in communications and journalism from Augusta University and her master’s degree in personal financial planning and financial therapy from Kansas State University.

Background

Bio

F.I.R.E. for Dummies

Catching Up to FI podcast

FInominal Women

How It Began/Resources

“Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) Explained: How It Works,” by Alexandra Kerr, Investopedia.com, Aug. 16, 2024.

“This Women Grew Her Wealth and Retired by Age 49—Here Are 5 Major Steps She Took to Do It,” by Jasmin Suknanan, cnbc.com, Jan. 2, 2024.

Choose FI

1500 Days to Freedom

Root of Good

Mad Fientist

Jamila Souffrant

Health Savings Accounts

“Health Savings Account (HSA): How HSAs Work, Contribution Rules,” by Julia Kagan, Ivestopedia.com, July 22, 2024.

“How an HSA Is Helping One Woman Achieve FI/RE Toward Early Retirement,” hsastore.com.

Other

“Most US States Will Soon Require Personal Finance Courses in School,” by Justin Boggs, scrippsnews.com, July 1, 2024.

Better Investing

Affordable Care Act (ACA)

“Jamila Souffrant: ‘What Type of Life Do You Actually Want to Live?’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 28, 2024.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Scott Rick. Scott is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. He is the author of a new book, Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships. He received his Ph.D. in behavioral decision research from Carnegie Mellon in 2007, and he then spent two years as a postdoctoral fellow at Wharton. His research focuses on understanding the emotional causes and consequences of consumer financial decision-making, with a particular interest in the behavior of tightwads and spendthrifts.

Background

Bio

Scottrick.com

Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships, by Scott Rick

Couples, Spendthrifts, and Tightwads

“A Penny Saved Is a Partner Earned: The Romantic Appeal of Savers,” by Jenny Olson and Scott Rick, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 1, 2017.

“Spendthrifts and Tightwads in Childhood: Feelings About Spending Predict Children’s Financial Decision Making,” by Craig E. Smith, Margaret Echelbarger, Susan A. Gelman, and Scott I. Rick, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, December 2017.

“‘You Spent How Much?’ Toward an Understanding of How Romantic Partners Respond to Each Other’s Financial Decisions,” by Jenny Olson and Scott Rick, sciencedirect.com, 2022.

“Common Cents: Bank Account Structure and Couples’ Relationship Dynamics,” by Jenny Olson, Deborah Small, Scott Rick, and Eli Finkel, Journal of Consumer Research, December 2023.

“Subjective Knowledge Differences Within Couples Predict Influence Over Shared Financial Decisions,” by Jenny Olson and Scott Rick, journals.uchicago.edu, October 2023.

“How Much Do You Need to Know About How Your Spouse Spends Money? Maybe Less Than You Think,” by Scott Rick, theconversation.com, June 10, 2024.

Gift-Giving

“Why Gift-Giving Makes You Anxious,” by Scott Rick, Time.com, Dec. 19, 2023.

“How to Be a Better Gift-Giver to a Partner,” by Scott Rick, psychologytoday.com, Feb. 22, 2024.

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Our guest on the podcast today is David John. David is a senior strategic policy advisor at the AARP Public Policy Institute, where he works on pension and retirement savings issues. He also serves as deputy director of the Retirement Security Project at the Brookings Institution. RSP focuses on improving retirement savings in the United States, especially among moderate and low-income workers. Before joining AARP, David was a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He also has extensive public policy experience working for a money center bank, a law firm, a credit union trade association, and four members of the House of Representatives. David has written and spoken extensively about the importance of reforming the nation's retirement programs. He is co-author with J. Mark Iwry of the Automatic IRA, a small business retirement savings program for firms that do not sponsor any other form of retirement savings or pension plan. In addition, David is one of four co-editors of the 2009 book Automatic: Changing the Way America Saves. David holds an ABJ in journalism, an M.A. in economics, and an MBA in finance—all from the University of Georgia.

Background

Bio

Automatic: Changing the Way America Saves, by William G. Gale, J. Mark Iwry, David C. John, and Lina Walker

Retirement Landscape

“How to Make Retirement Saving Easier for Millions of Americans,” by Renu Zaretsky, taxpolicycenter.org, Oct. 6, 2021.

“Small Retirement Accounts: Issues and Options,” by David C. John, J. Mark Iwry, Christopher Pulliam, and William G. Gale, brookings.edu.com, September 2021.

“Cashing Out: The Systemic Impact of Withdrawing Savings Before Retirement,” Savings Preservation Working Group, tsretirement.com, Oct. 29, 2019.

“How Auto IRAs Could Soon Improve Retirement for Millions of Americans,” by David C. John and J. Mark Iwry, brookings.edu.com, Oct. 20, 2021.

“The Current State of U.S. Workplace Retirement Plan Coverage,” by John Sabelhaus, repository.upenn.edu, March 2022.

“How Can the Retirement System Help More People Afford Retirement?” by William G. Gale, David C. John, and J. Mark Iwry, brookings.edu, Aug. 3, 2021.

“Nontraditional Workers Face Multiple Barriers to Saving for Retirement,” by Alison Shelton and John Scott, pewtrusts.org, Nov. 9, 2021.

“How to Take Portfolio Withdrawals in a Market Downturn,” by Adam Shell, aarp.org, March 25, 2022.

“State Auto-IRAs Continue to Complement Private Market for Retirement Plans,” by Theron Guzoto, Mark Hines, and Alison Shelton, pewtrusts.org, July 25, 2022.

“The Automatic IRA at 15: Helping Americans Build Retirement Security,” by J. Mark Iwry and David C. John, brookings.edu, Feb. 12, 2021.

Emergency Savings

“Brigitte Madrian: ‘Inertia Can Actually Be a Helpful Thing,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 22, 2020.

“Building Emergency Savings Through Employer-Sponsored Rainy-Day Savings Accounts,” by John Beshears, James J. Choi, Mark Iwry, David C. John, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian, hbs.edu, 2020.

“Saving at Work for a Rainy Day: Results From a National Survey of Employees,” aarp.org, Dec. 4, 2018.

Retirement Decumulation

“When Income Is the Outcome: Reducing Regulatory Obstacles to Annuities in 401(k) Plans,” by J. Mark Iwry, William Gale, David John, and Victoria Johnson, brookings.edu, July 2019.

“The SECURE Act: A Good Start but Far More Is Needed,” by J. Mark Iwry, David C. John, and William G. Gale, brookings.edu, Jan. 8, 2020.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Tim Steffen, director of tax planning for Baird. In his role, Tim researches, writes, and speaks about various tax matters, including retirement planning, executive compensation, legislative changes, and overall best practices. Tim originally joined Baird in 1999, serving in a variety of planning-oriented roles, most recently as director of advanced planning. He left Baird in 2019 to join the Advisor Education team at Pimco, then returned to Baird in 2021. Prior to 1999, Tim worked in Arthur Andersen's Private Client Services group. He earned his bachelor's degree in accounting from the University of Illinois. He is a Certified Public Accountant/Personal Financial Specialist, a Certified Financial Planner professional, and a Certified Private Wealth Advisor professional.

Background

Bio

Student Loan Forgiveness and Inflation Reduction Act

American Rescue Plan

“5 Questions About Student Loan Forgiveness,” by Lia Mitchell and Karen Wallace, Morningstar.com, Aug. 29, 2022.

“What Student Loan Forgiveness Means for Your Finances,” by Amy C. Arnott, Morningstar.com, Sept. 2, 2022.

“Fact Sheet: The Inflation and Reduction Act Supports Workers and Families,” whitehouse.gov, Aug. 19, 2022.

“IRS Tax Return Audit Rates Plummet,” by Ashlea Ebeling, forbes.com, May 18, 2022.

S Corporations

Tax-Loss Selling in a Weak Market

What Is Tax Selling?

“It’s Time for Tax-Loss Selling,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, June 3, 2022.

“Michael Kitces: Does Portfolio Customization Pay Off?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 23, 2022.

IRA Conversions

“IRAs: To Convert or Not To Convert?” bairdwealth.com, August 2022.

“Surprising Upsides in a Down Market,” bairdwealth.com, June 22, 2022.

“Are IRA Conversions a Good Idea During Volatility?” Interview with Christine Benz and Tim Steffen, Morningstar.com, May 12, 2020.

“Is the Backdoor Roth Still Legit?” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Jan. 21, 2022.

“Don’t Let Pro Rata Rules Trip Up Your Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Feb. 27, 2018.

Inherited IRAs

“The Secure Act, RMDs, and Beneficiaries: Another Wrinkle,” by Natalie Choate, Morningstar.com, Dec. 8, 2021.

“Why You Should Review Your Estate Plan This Year,” Interview with Christine Benz and Ed Slott, Morningstar.com, March 23, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is personal finance expert Farnoosh Torabi. Farnoosh is editor at large for CNET Money. She has also written several books, including When She Makes More and You're So Money. In addition, Farnoosh hosts the Webby-nominated So Money podcast, where she interviews leading experts and authors about their financial perspectives and answers listeners' questions. For several years, she has hosted the Webby-nominated web series Financially Fit on Yahoo. She has also served as a money coach on such shows as Remake America on Yahoo, Bank of Mom and Dad on SOAPnet, and TLC's Real Simple, Real Life. Farnoosh graduated with honors from Penn State University with a degree in finance and international business. She also holds a master's degree from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.

Background

Bio  

CNET Money

So Money podcast

When She Makes More: The Truth About Navigating Love and Life for a New Generation of Women, by Farnoosh Torabi

You’re So Money: Live Rich, Even When You’re Not, by Farnoosh Torabi

David Bach

Jean Chatzky

“Jean Chatzky: ‘Financial Stress Is a Big Topic in Need of More Oxygen,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 15, 2020.

Current Environment and Personal Finance

“3 Money Questions to Ask Yourself in a Recession, According to Financial Expert Farnoosh Torabi,” by Nick Wolny, time.com, April 11, 2022.

“Saving for Retirement at Every Age,” by Farnoosh Torabi, farnoosh.tv.com.

“The Best Financial Apps and Tools to Help You Save, Spend, and Invest Better,” by Farnoosh Torabi, time.com, Jan. 4, 2022.

Women and Money

“Why the World Is Better Off When Women Make More—With Farnoosh Torabi,” Marriage, Kids, and Money interview, youtube.com, Oct. 22, 2018.

“Americans See Men as the Financial Providers, Even as Women’s Contributions Grow,” by Kim Parker and Renee Stepler, pewresearch.org, Sept. 20, 2017.

“Equal Pay Day: One Bright Spot,” by Farnoosh Torabi, farnoosh.tv.com.

“Why Financial ‘Fairness’ Can Be a Losing Game in Your Marriage,” by Farnoosh Torabi, cnet.com, Oct. 13, 2021.

“Ask Farnoosh: Investing in a Bear Market, Changing Jobs and Earning More,” So Money podcast, cnet.com, July 8, 2022.

“How to Ask for a Raise in a Pandemic Recession,” by Farnoosh Torabi, washingtonpost.com, Aug. 31, 2020.

So Money Podcast

“Black Wealth Matters: Queen Latifah,” So Money with Farnoosh Torabi, June 10, 2020.

“Adam Torabi (Dad!): A Layoff Comeback Story,” So Money with Farnoosh Torabi, July 11, 2018.

“Ask Farnoosh: Your Biggest Student Loan Forgiveness Questions, Answered,” So Money with Farnoosh Torabi, Sept. 2, 2022.

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Our guest this week is Sarah Ketterer. She is CEO and fundamental portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, the firm she co-founded in 2001. In her role, she is responsible for overseeing investment research across all sectors and is a member of the firm's operating committee. As a part of her duties, Ketterer manages Causeway's flagship international value strategy, including the Causeway International Value fund, which she has run since its 2001 inception. Prior to founding Causeway, she was a senior leader and portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley. She earned her bachelor's degree in economics and political science from Stanford University and an MBA from the Tuck School, Dartmouth College.

Background

Bio

Causeway

Girls Who Invest

100 Women in Finance

Women in Institutional Investments Network

Causeway International Value Fund Investment Team Named Morningstar’s 2017 International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year

Investment Approach

“A Topnotch Foreign Large-Value Vehicle for the Long Haul,” by William Samuel Rocco, Morningstar.com, Nov. 8, 2021.

“Growth and Value Equity Opportunities: Morningstar Investment Conference,” by Charles Paikert, familywealthreport.com, May 23, 2022.

“Combining our Time-Tested Abilities in Developed and Emerging International Markets,” causewaycap.com.

“Investors Should Be Ready to Buy When We Are Clearly in a Recession,” by Cristoph Gisiger, causewaycap.com, Dec. 6, 2022.

“Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now,” by Suzanne Woolley, Bloomberg.com, May 18, 2022.

The StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM)

Value Investing and Turnarounds

“'We Started Jumping Out of Our Shoes': Auto Share Drop Revs Up Value Shop,” by Vicky Ge Huang, citywireusa.com, April 2, 2018.

“Buy ‘Dull’ Cash-Flowing Stocks, Causeway’s Ketterer Says,” by John Gittelsohn, financialpost.com, June 5, 2022.

“Top Global Value Manager Sarah Ketterer Identifies Some ‘Outstanding’ Bear Market Opportunities,” Wealthtrack podcast, wealthtrack.com, July 8, 2022.

“Why This Top Manager Thinks Markets Are Less Risky Now,” by Katie Rushkewicz Reichart, Morningstar.com, May 17, 2022.

“Where a Value Manager and a Growth Manager See Opportunities, Risks Now,” by Dinah Wisenberg Brin, thinkadvisor.com, May 23, 2022.

“Activist Investors Descend on ‘Bargain Basement’ UK Companies,” by Harriet Agnew and Arash Massoudi, ft.com, Feb. 1, 2022.

Portfolio Positioning

“Sarah Ketterer’s 5 Favorite Energy Stocks,” by Sydnee Gatewood, gurufocus.com, June 20, 2022.

“Sarah Ketterer’s 5 Favorite Tech Stocks,” by Sydnee Gatewood, gurufocus.com, June 15, 2021.

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Background

Bio

Mom and Dad, We Need to Talk: How to Have Essential Conversations With Your Parents About Their Finances, by Cameron Huddleston

Carefull

Talking to Parents and Kids About Money

“Why I Wrote ‘Mom and Dad, We Need to Talk,’” by Cameron Huddleston, cameronhuddleston.com, June 19, 2019.

“What I Teach My Kids About Money,” by Cameron Huddleston, cameronhuddleston.com, July 10, 2019.

“Why You Should Talk to Your Adult Children About Your Finances,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, July 29, 2022.

“Protect Aging Parents by Auditing Their Wallets,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, Aug. 19, 2022.

“Financial Signs of Alzheimer’s Disease and Dementia,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, July 6, 2022.

“How Financial Advisors Are Becoming Financial Caregivers,” by Cameron Huddleston, thinkadvisor.com, June 18, 2021.

“How to Help Your Parents Hire a Financial Advisor,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, June 9, 2022.

Estate Planning

“Estate Planning for Aging Parents: It’s Never Too Late,” by Peter Lauria, thebalance.com, Aug. 15, 2022.

“Why You Need a Living Will Now More Than Ever,” by Cameron Huddleston, cameronhuddelston.com, April 23, 2020.

“Why You Need a Will or Trust,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, Dec. 7, 2021.

Cognitive Decline and Long-Term Care

“6 Signs Your Parents Need Help With Their Finances,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, Nov. 8, 2021.

“Your Parent Was Diagnosed With Alzheimer’s. Now What?” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, June 9, 2022.

“How Hybrid Life Insurance Pays for Long-Term Care,” by Cameron Huddleston, forbes.com, July 26, 2022.

“How Your Risk of Financial Exploitation Increases As You Age,” by Cameron Huddleston, security.naifa.org, Feb. 3, 2022.

“What to Know About the Different Types of Long-Term Care,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, June 9, 2022.

“How to Talk to Your Parents About Long-Term Care,” by Cameron Huddleston, June 9, 2022.

“Financial Risks That Make It Difficult to Age in Place,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, Aug. 26, 2022.

“How Financial Care Is Part of Aging in Place,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, Aug. 15, 2022.

Financial Fraud

“How Your Risk of Financial Exploitation Increases as You Age,” by Cameron Huddleston, security.naifa.org, March 29, 2022.

“How to Guard Against Elder Fraud,” by Cameron Huddleston, getcarefull.com, June 9, 2022.

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We welcome back Michael Kitces, who was one of our first guests on The Long View. Michael is the head of planning strategy for Buckingham Wealth Partners. In addition, he is a co-founder of the XY Planning Network, AdvicePay, New Planner Recruiting, fpPathfinder, and XY BeanCounters. Kitces also oversees the leading industry blog for financial advisors, Nerd's Eye View at kitces.com, which reaches more than 250,000 readers each month. He also has two podcasts, Financial Advisor Success and Kitces & Carl, the latter of which he produces with Carl Richards. He has received numerous financial planning designations, including the Certified Financial Planner, Chartered Financial Consultant, and Chartered Life Underwriter designations. He received his bachelor's degree in psychology from Bates College and subsequently earned master's degrees in taxation and financial planning.

Bio

XY Planning Network

AdvicePay

New Planner Recruiting

fpPathfinder

XY BeanCounters

Nerd's Eye View

Financial Advisor Success podcast

Kitces & Carl podcast

Buckingham Strategic Wealth

"Resolving the Paradox—Is the Safe Withdrawal Rate Sometimes Too Safe?" by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, May 6, 2008.

"To Roth or Not To Roth," by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, May 2009.

Jeffrey Levine

Inoreader

Joshua Brown

Barry Ritholtz

Tadas Viskanta

"Maximizing Your Productivity by Leveraging Your Time Not Your Technology, With Patty Kreamer," Financial Advisor Success podcast, kitces.com, June 15, 2021.

"7 Big Rocks—The Productivity System," by Stephen Covey, youtube.com, Dec. 27, 2013.

"Financial Advisor Fee Trends and the Fee Compression Mirage," by Derek Tharp, kitces.com, Feb. 8, 2021.

"The 3 Domains of Financial Advisor Value: Why Human Advisors Continue to Thrive Amid Competition From Robos," by Adam Van Deusen, kitces.com, May 23, 2022.

"The Four Types of Direct Indexing and Technology Solutions for Advisors," by Michael Kitces and Adam Van Deusen, kitces.com, Feb. 16, 2022.

"Why Tax-Loss Harvesting During Down Markets Isn't Always a Good Idea," by Ben Henry-Moreland, kitces.com, July 13, 2022.

"Financial Advisor Trends in Constructing Mutual Fund vs. ETF Investment Portfolios," by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, July 25, 2018.

Parametric

Aperio

"What This Week's Market Volatility Teaches About Making Customized Portfolios for Every Client," by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Feb. 8, 2018.

"Kitces & Carl Ep 65: Handling Clients Who Bring Their Own 'Hot' Investment Ideas," Kitces & Carl podcast, kitces.com, July 29, 2021.

"10 Key Performance Indicators for Financial Advisory Firms to Compare With Industry Benchmarking Studies," by Ben Henry-Moreland, kitces.com, March 28, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Joe Saul-Sehy, the co-host of the popular Stacking Benjamins podcast. He is also the co-author of a new book called Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management, which he co-wrote with Emily Guy Birken. Saul-Sehy was a financial advisor and represented American Express and Ameriprise in the media before embarking on his current career as a financial educator. He received his bachelor's degree in English from Michigan State University.

Bio

Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management, by Joe Saul-Sehy and Emily Guy Birken

Stacking Benjamins podcast

Emily Guy Birken's books

"Finding the Right Financial Advisor With Joe Saul Sehy," Micro Empires podcast, micro-empires.com, Oct. 20, 2020.

"Timeline Your Goals: Stacked With Joe Saul-Sehy," Choose FI podcast, choosefi.com, March 28, 2022.

"6 Financial Steps to Take Before You Retire," by Joe Saul-Sehy, stackingbenjamins.com, May 17, 2021.

"5 Simple and Effective Ways to Practice Financial Self-Care," by Joe Saul-Sehy, stackingbenjamins.com, June 24, 2022.

"Why Your Target-Date Funds Suck," Stacking Benjamins podcast, stackingbenjamins.com, June 5, 2017.

"What's Your Money Script?" Clarity Wealth Development.

"Who Is Dave Ramsey?" Investopedia.

Tiller

Qube Money

Marcus Insights

Mint

"Conquer Your 'Mount Everest',” with Colin O'Brady, Aug. 1, 2022.

"Lessons From Cirque du Soleil's Daniel Lamarre on Your Work and Career," Jan. 17, 2022.

"Learn to Steal Like an Artist (With Austin Kleon)," April 27, 2022.

"Creativity, Collaboration and Innovation—Don Hahn, Lion King Producer," April 9, 2014.

"The Secret Financial Lives of Americans," Study by Nonfiction Research, nonfiction.co.

The Retirement Answer Man podcast

Kitchen Confidential, by Anthony Bourdain

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Our guest this week is Michael Santoli, who is senior markets commentator at CNBC, which he joined in 2015. Prior to that, he was a senior columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the market and economy. That followed a long stint at Barron's magazine, where Santoli was a columnist and feature writer for 15 years. Santoli began his career in the early 1990s as a reporter covering the securities industry for Dow Jones Newswires. He earned his bachelor's degree from Wesleyan University.

Bio

"Santoli: The S&P 500, Lifted by Earnings, Makes a Run at a Key Threshold and Tests Its Downtrend," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 19, 2022.

"Santoli: Earnings Beats Propel Some Major Bank Stocks, but They Still Have a lot to Prove," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 18, 2022.

"Santoli: The S&P 500 Nears a Level That Could Indicate Whether the Recent Rebound Is Sustainable," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 27, 2022.

"Santoli: Agreeable Economic Data and Earnings Releases Lift Stocks Into a Relief Rally," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 15, 2022.

"Santoli: There's Little for the Market to Like in June's Hot Inflation Report," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 13, 2022.

"Santoli: Investors' Worries Migrate From Inflation Panic to Fears Over U.S. Growth Risk," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 22, 2022.

"Santoli: June's Jobs Reports Is Too Strong to Feed Recession Fears, but Key Inflation Data Looms," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 8, 2022.

"Santoli: Strengthening Case Against a Recession Pushing S&P 500 to Highest Levels Since Early June," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Aug. 3, 2022.

Jeff deGraaf

"Santoli: Investors Grapple With a Sense of Surrender After the Fed Raises Interest Rates," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 16, 2022.

"Santoli: Investors' Worries Around the Fed’s Rate Hikes Have Found a New Focal Point—Risks to Growth," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, May 25, 2022.

"The Spring Setup for a Resilient Market That Got Past a Tough First Quarter Without Much Damage," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, April 2, 2022.

"The 2022 Stock Market Doesn't Have to Repeat—It Only Has to Rhyme," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Aug. 6, 2022.

"Santoli: Low Expectations Lift Netflix Shares, but the Stock Remains in Growth Purgatory," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 20, 2022.

"After Another Big Weekly Loss, Assessing Whether Weekly Stocks Are Cheap and a Buying Opportunity Is Near," by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 18, 2022.

"Santoli: As a Reckoning Unfolds in Tech, Could Megacap Growth Names Be Poised for a Bounce?" cnbc.com, May 11, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Wade Pfau. He is professor of retirement income in the Ph.D. in financial and retirement planning program at the American College of Financial Services. He is also co-director of the American College Center for Retirement Income and RICP program director at the American College. Pfau has written several books, including his most recent, Retirement Planning Guidebook. He is a co-editor of the Journal of Personal Finance, and he publishes frequently in a wide variety of academic and practitioner research journals. He hosts the Retirement Researcher blog and is a regular contributor to Advisor Perspectives, MarketWatch, and Forbes. Pfau holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst.

Bio

Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success, by Wade Pfau

Wade Pfau books

Wade Pfau blogs posts on Retirement Researcher

Retirement Income Strategies

Alex Murguia

“Selecting a Personalized Retirement Income Strategy,” by Alejandro Murguia and Wade Pfau, Retirement Management Journal, Dec. 1, 2021.

“Determining Your Retirement Income Style,” by Wade Pfau, financialplanningassocation.org, 2021.

“Two Philosophies for Retirement Income Planning Part One: Probability-Based,” by Wade Pfau, forbes.com, Dec. 18, 2019.

“What Is a Safety-First Retirement Plan?” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

“The RISA Framework: A Systemized Approach to Personalizing Retirement Income Strategies for Clients,” by Wade Pfau and Alex Murguia, kitces.com, April 20, 2022.

Inflation and Other Risk Factors

“Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 14, 2021.

“Inflation, Deflation, Confiscation & Devastation—The Four Horsemen of Risk,” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

“Wade Pfau: TIPS and Annuities Good Bets When Inflation Is High,” by Ginger Szala, thinkadvisor.com, March 31, 2022.

“The Changing Risks of Retirement,” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

“The Four Approaches to Managing Retirement Income Risk,” by Wade Pfau, papers.ssrn.com, Dec. 31, 2019.

“Don’t Panic on Sequence of Returns,” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, May 16, 2022.

Withdrawal Rates

“Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe,” The Long View Podcast, Morningstar.com, April 29, 2020.

“Retiring Soon? Why the Popular 4% Withdrawal Rule May Be a Bad Idea,” by Greg Iacurci, cnbc.com, April 13, 2021.

“What Is the ‘Retirement Spending Smile?’” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

Annuities

“Retirement Income Strategies With Annuities,” by Wade Pfau, retirementreseacher.com.

“Wade Pfau Takes a Balanced Look at a Retirement Product Some Advisors Love to Hate,” by Ed McCarthy, thinkadvisor.com, July 22, 2022.

“David Lau: Taking High Commissions Out of Annuities,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 21, 2022.

“Are Annuities Too Expensive?” by Wade Pfau, linkedin.com, July 2, 2021.

Long-Term Care

“Costs and Incidence of Long-Term Care,” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

“Managing Long-Term Care Spending Risks in Retirement,” by Wade Pfau and Michael Finke, lecp.naifa.org, Jan. 7, 2020.

“Hybrid Long-Term Care Insurance Policies,” by Wade Pfau, retirementresearcher.com.

Other

“Laura Carstensen: ‘I’m Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 14, 2021.

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Listen Now: Listen and subscribe to Morningstar's The Long View from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Play | Stitcher

Our guest on the podcast today is Jordan Grumet. He is a physician and an associate medical director at JourneyCare Hospice. He also hosts the popular “Earn & Invest” podcast, which he launched after years of blogging about financial independence and wellness at the website DiverseFI.com. His latest book is called Taking Stock: A Hospice Doctor's Advice on Financial Independence, Building Wealth, and Living a Regret-Free Life. In it, he shares lessons that he has learned from interacting with patients during the last parts of their lives. He received his undergraduate degree from the University of Michigan and his medical degree from Northwestern University.

Bio

“Earn & Invest” podcast

Taking Stock: A Hospice Doctor’s Advice on Financial Independence, Building Wealth, and Living a Regret-Free Life, by Jordan Grumet

DiverseFI.com

FIRE Movement

Jim Dahle, The White Coat Investor

“Jim Dahle: ‘Income Is Not Wealth,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 2, 2020.

“Coping With FIRE,” by Jordan Grumet, earnandinvest.com, June 5, 2021.

Other

“The Opportunity Cost Fallacy,” by Jordan Grumet, diversefi.com, June 5, 2018.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Andrew Blake. Andrew is associate director of wealth management for Cerulli Associates. He is a member of Cerulli’s Wealth Management practice, leading coverage of asset manager distribution strategy for products sold through financial advisors. With a focus on the wealth management landscape, Andrew assesses trends related to advisor use of investment products as well as their relationships with clients and varying practice types. Prior to joining Cerulli, Andrew worked at John Hancock Investment Management and a Boston-area RIA. He has a BBA in marketing as well as management and strategic leadership from Ohio University.

Background

Bio

The Cerulli Report: US Intermediary Distribution 2023

The Cerulli Report: US Advisor Metrics 2023

Research

US Broker/Dealer Marketplace 2023

US RIA Marketplace 2023

US High-Net-Worth and Ultra-High-Net-Worth Markets 2023

US Retirement Markets 2023

State of US Wealth Management Technology 2024

Advisors

The Cerulli Edge: US Advisor

“More Advisors Are Making the Move to RIA, Independent Models,” by Josh Welsh, investmentnews.com, Oct. 31, 2023.

“The Role of the Retail-Direct Channel in a Growing Financial Planning Profession,” cfp.net, March 28, 2023.

“Financial Adviser Shortage Looms, Cerulli Reports,” by Natalie Lin, planadviser.com, Jan. 16, 2024.

“Asset Managers Embrace a Technology Arms Race,” cerulli.com, Oct. 27, 2022.

“As Retirement Exodus Looms, Rookie Advisor Failure Rate at 72%, Study Finds,” by Ayo Mseka, insurancenewsnet.com, Feb. 12, 2024.

Other

Creative Planning

“Peter Mallouk: The Financial Advice Industry Is ‘Still Very Messy,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, March 26, 2024.

Vanguard Personal Advisor Select

Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

iCapital

Case IQ

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Our guest this week is Larry Siegel. He is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Prior to that, he was director of research for the Ford Foundation's investment division for 15 years. Siegel began his career at Ibbotson Associates in 1979. He specializes in asset management and investment consulting and has served on various boards as both an advisor and a director. He has also served on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal and currently serves on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management and TheJournal of Investing. Siegel is a prolific writer and has authored several critically acclaimed books in recent years, including Unknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly as well as Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance. He earned his Bachelor of Arts from the University of Chicago and his MBA in finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Bio

Unknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly, by Laurence Siegel

Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance, by Laurence Siegel

"Lifetime Financial Advice: Human Capital, Asset Allocation, and Insurance," by Roger Ibbotson, Moshe Arye Milevsky, and Kevin Zhu, ResearchGate, January 2007.

Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance, by Roger Ibbotson, Thomas Idzorek, Paul Kaplan, and James Xiong, Jan. 15, 2019.

"Bursting the Bubble—Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market," by David F. DeRosa, SSRN, April 29, 2021.

"Equity Risk Premium Forum: Don’t Bet Against a Bubble?," by Paul McCaffrey, CFA Institute, April 8, 2022.

The Myth of Artificial Intelligence: Why Computers Can't Think the Way We Do, by Erik Larson, April 6, 2021.

"Value Investing: Robots Versus People," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, June 30, 2017.

"Don't Give Up the Ship: The Future of the Endowment Model," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, April 7, 2021.

"Where's Tobin? Protecting Intergenerational Equity for Endowments: A New Benchmarking Approach," by M. Barton Waring and Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, April 21, 2022.

"Debunking Nine and a Half Myths of Investing," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, March 12, 2020.

"Protecting Portfolios Against Inflation," by Eugene Podkaminer, Wylie Tollette, and Laurence Siegel, The Journal of Investing, April 2022.

"The Novelty of the Coronavirus: What It Means for Markets," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.com, April 1, 2020.

"Will Demographic Trends Drive Higher Inflation and Interest Rates?" by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.com, Feb. 10, 2021.

"Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 31, 2022.

"Tom Idzorek: Exploring the Role of Human and Financial Capital in Retirement Planning," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 7, 2022.

Jeff Ptak: Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer for Morningstar Research Services.

Christine Benz: And I'm Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar.

Ptak: Our guest this week is Larry Siegel. Larry is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Prior to that, he was director of research at the Ford Foundation's investment division for 15 years. Larry began his career at Ibbotson Associates in 1979. He specializes in asset management and investment consulting and has served on various boards as both an advisor and a director. He has also served on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal and currently serves on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management and The Journal of Investing. Larry is a prolific writer and has authored several critically acclaimed books in recent years, including Unknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly as well as Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance. Larry earned his Bachelor of Arts from the University of Chicago and his MBA in finance at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business.

Larry, welcome to The Long View.

Laurence Siegel: Thank you.

Ptak: Thank you so much for joining us. We're really excited to chat with you. I wanted to start with your early career. You worked for Roger Ibbotson early in your career. In fact, you were Ibbotson's first employee if I'm not mistaken. Talk about Roger's influence on you and more broadly, the impact he has had on our understanding of markets and investing.

Siegel: Roger was not only my first boss, he was my first finance professor at the University of Chicago. So, I got fed the Ibbotson—and to give credit where it's due, to Sinquefield—view of the markets early. I was 21 years old. And I would describe that view as that asset classes are what's important; that security, individual securities, are best viewed as components of asset classes, although when you get involved in the business, you realize that you have to understand the market at the security level, too; and that long-term performance is very strongly in favor of equities. So, at the time, pension funds, who were the main customers for Ibbotson Associates' work, had relatively little in equities, and one of our missions was to improve the returns of those funds and thus for the sponsors and the employees by holding more equities. This was in the early ‘80s. I was hired in 1979. So, you can see that was a good strategy.

Benz: So, sticking with your background in your early career, you think young professionals should have a grounding in the humanities and liberal arts. Why is that?

Siegel: Well, not every single one needs to, but the ones who are going to rise to the top in the business need a grounding in the common cultural heritage of the human race, and that's given by humanities and social sciences that the liberal arts broadly construed. Investors invest in businesses or governments, but mostly businesses, and businesses exist to serve the needs and wants of people, an ever-changing group of people around the world. So, without a deep understanding of human affairs—in other words, of the why of business—young investment professionals are likely to fall into some intellectual traps: short-termism, geographically narrow thinking, where you only think about your own country, and a bunch of other well-documented behavioral biases—you shouldn't do that.

Ptak: Maybe a dumb question to follow up on that: Why doesn't the market do a better job of creating incentives to ensure that younger professionals—let's talk about those who are heading into finance and in investing in particular—that they have a liberal arts background and they're able to better avoid some of those traps? Why haven't those incentives really taken shape and why is it still so typical to see this procession of MBAs and people with the traditional finance background dominating finance and investing?

Siegel: Well, if you're as old as me, I'm 68, you have observed that it used to. The market, when I was getting out of school, was in a very different position. There weren't many MBAs. It was an unpopular decision to go to business school. And most of the people who were accepted in business school had an Ivy Plus background where a liberal arts education is required in order to graduate. By Ivy Plus I mean the University of Chicago, Stanford, Northwestern, places like that, plus the Ivy League. So, this staffed the investment business with a fairly broadly educated group of people. What happened in the next 40 years is that business got too big. And the MBA programs mushroomed from a little specialty of a dozen or two dozen schools to something that everybody felt they had to get in order to get a job. So, it just became more of a trade school degree rather than an academic degree. And I'm sorry if I'm offending anybody here, but that's the way I see it. And the investment business became more of a trade. So, the market became less efficient, I think, because it just got so big that it had to pull in a lot of different people, including people who had specialized early because they wanted to be in finance because they were seeing people in finance made a lot of money.

Benz: Speaking of specialization, do you think that the only way to truly specialize is to have had a generalist humanistic education first? In other words, are the most successful specialists people who trained as generalists first and is there any evidence for this?

Siegel: I think there is among CEOs and maybe CIOs, chief investment officers. The greatest businesspeople in the world have generally had a pretty broad background and a lot of them started, the legend is in the mail room, but they may have started in engineering, accounting. They may have started in sales. Whatever they did, they found their way to the investment business through a kind of evolution over time. An organization needs foxes and hedgehogs. Isaiah Berlin, drawing on an ancient Greek story, said that there are two kinds of people of foxes who know a little about everything and hedgehogs who no one big thing. Einstein, for example, was a hedgehog. He really only cared about physics, and he was very productive. We would have a very different world without him. I am suggesting that you're better off looking for foxes, but you also want to have a few Einsteins in there, and an organization that consists entirely of foxes would be very unfocused and would be more like a college dorm than a business.

Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about something that seems like it's been an awfully short supply lately, which is optimism. You wrote a book called Fewer, Richer, Greener, evincing optimism about the global economy and humanity in general. Have you always been an optimistic person? Or has it gone back and forth or been situation dependent?

Siegel: I've always been an optimistic person in terms of my intrinsic biases. I do know enough economic history and regular history to know that living conditions have improved so much in the last 250 years, and actually in the last 50, that you'd be kind of crazy to deny that things have improved. This is a bad year and a bad decade. And it's very easy to become pessimistic when you read the news or check the stock market or look at the world situation with wars and so forth. But underneath the surface of all this chaos and negativity, technology is continuing to advance at an amazing rate of speed. And what we really rely on for economic growth is improvements in technology, where I use the word technology to mean it very broadly. Technology is not just the gadgets or computing power. It's biology. It's social technology—my ability to gather together a bunch of people in a Zoom meeting from all over the world and have a board meeting. And as this technology has grown in the broad sense, we have made our lives much easier; work has gotten easier. We do less of it. The 80-hour work week has now become a specialty of doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Coal miners—my father-in-law was a coal miner and he worked 80 hours a week in a coal mine when they let him. He would have preferred to work 40, but he needed the money. So, we have an economy in which we produce an awful lot without doing all that much, frankly. We have probably the easiest lives of any population that's ever existed.

Benz: Optimism seems like one of those secret weapons in investing, in finance in that if you're optimistic, you're more likely to stick with it, stick with your plan, and markets have tended to reward people who have stuck with it over the longer term. But it's hard to be optimistic about the long term given how unknowable things are. So, is the equity-risk premium compensation for subjecting ourselves to that unknowability?

Siegel: Yes. There are two kinds of risks. One is fluctuations in asset prices. We all know what that is. The market just went down 20% or 25%, and we're feeling it. And we might forget this, but it went down 34% in a month in the spring of 2020, which is a profound dislocation in the markets. And a few months later, we forgot it. The other kind of risk is actually more profound, and it's the possibility that our general expectations for assets are wrong. And if you look back, equities have returned about real 7%, 7% plus inflation. Going forward, it's pretty unlikely that they're going to do that over the next 20 or 30 years just because of the high prices. Even if economic growth were as rapid in the future as it was in the past, you want to pay less rather than more for the stocks. So, right now, they're selling at a premium to their historical average. That conventional asset-allocation input of equities generate 6.7% or 7% real is almost certainly too optimistic, and we've got to do what Jack Bogle said, which is budget for it. We can't all earn alpha and earn a higher return, because the net alpha in the market is 0, so we would all be trying to take it away from somebody else. We have to budget for lower returns.

When you look at the bond market, it's even worse. Bonds seem to be priced to yield about real 0%  to real 1%. That's much lower than the historical average, about half the historical average.

Ptak: You got that right. It looks like real yields across the yield curve 49 to 99 basis points as of yesterday, which would be July 11, so a pretty paltry real yield. I did want to, if I may, stick with the general topic of optimism and its nexus with investing, talk about that in the context of value investing. I sometimes wonder if value investing pays off because it's so repulsive over long stretches that it's almost impossible to be optimistic. That does, though, raise questions about the implications for its practical usability. For instance, if investors are likely to give up on it because they do find it so repulsive when it underperforms growth as it had done until relatively recently, they might miss out on some of that payoff, which can come in bunches. Or do you think that's off base? Do you think that value investing really is usable, you just have to stick with it long enough?

Siegel: I think that value investing is usable. But you shouldn't concentrate your whole portfolio in it. What we've seen is that the pendulum has swung between value and growth in very long cycles and large cycles where value does much better or much worse for the entire time that data are available. Fama and French did this back to 1927 and you get these five- to 15-year swings, which is so long that people give up on either value or growth at exactly the wrong time. So, in 2007, value had outperformed massively, and it was a great time to buy growth stocks because we were just about to enter not a tech bubble but a period of tech innovation that produced huge returns for a decade and a half. Anybody who went against the grain, anybody who went against the tide and overweighted growth stocks did much better than the market from 2007 until a year or two ago. Now people are saying, only growth works, so value is disgusting. And the more disgusted you are, the more likely it is to work. I would overweight value right now, but not all the time.

Benz: I wanted to ask about intuition. It's something that tends to be greatly valued in everyday life, but it can lead us astray when it comes to investing. For example, in March 2020, which you referenced earlier, few of us expected the great snap back in the markets because intuitively we knew the pandemic would be bad for humanity. Do you think intuition was a better model for investing before markets became so efficient or has it never really worked?

Siegel: Well, informed intuition, if you've spent a lifetime in, let's say, engineering and you know something about the way that computers are put together or the internet is put together or something, you might have had the intuition that this was going to be a profound change in the way everybody did everything and you bought those stocks. But the problem is that most people who bought the stocks in the first tech wave, in the 1990s, bought them without knowing anything about the individual companies. They were right about the technology; they were wrong about the companies. So, you would now have a portfolio of AltaVista and Netscape and AOL and a bunch of other companies that had promised but they were just outcompeted by somebody else. So, I would rather hang my hat on analysis than intuition unless you just happen to be one of those people with special inside knowledge but that is obtained legally. But most people who think they have inside knowledge don't. So, I would try to avoid relying on intuition too much.

Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about your role at the CFA Institute. You have a lot of experience assessing research proposals in that role. What are the best pieces of research have in common based on your experience?

Siegel: Well, they draw heavily on theory to make practical recommendations that can be implemented in the short to medium term. And going back to Roger Ibbotson, we published a piece in 2007 on lifetime financial advice that came from Roger with several colleagues. We are about to publish, but have not yet received the manuscript, the second installment of that from Paul Kaplan, Tom Idzorek, and a third author whose name I forget, and that will come out later this year or early next year. So, even though they're 15 years apart, the Ibbotson people have an integrated theory of investing insurance, annuities—all these different tools in order to provide people with a lifetime income that's secure and yet has the room for adding value through either asset allocation or security selection alpha. So, that's the kind of research I like most. We sometimes have also done pieces that step outside of the box of the Financial Analysts Journal or the Journal of Portfolio Management -type of research and look at a broader set of issues—for example, geopolitics, demography. There was a beautiful piece by David DeRosa on bubbles. He's against them. I don't know how he can be for or against bubbles. Either bubbles are or bubbles are not. But he takes the position that what we think are bubbles are mostly rational responses to circumstances and then when the circumstances change, the bubble bursts. But it wasn't a bubble; it was rational at the time. I don't know that I buy that 100%, but it sure was interesting reading his logic because he expresses it so well. So, these are the kinds of research I enjoy the most.

I've also done some of my own research here. I am compiling for the CFA Institute Research Foundation a book on the equity risk premium, which was a symposium of 11 fairly famous people—Marty Leibowitz, Rob Arnott, Cliff Asness and so forth—which I led. I'm not one of the famous people, but I know them all socially, so I was able to get them to come. And I edited it with a co-editor, Paul McCaffrey, who is producing a book on that as we speak. It could come out in the next month.

Ptak: I did want to ask you about what's become the new rage in investing research and portfolio management, which is combining quantitative and human-driven decisions. If you had to draw up a CFA curricula for a bot, how would it differ for the current human-based curricula? And on the flip side, how do you think the current human curricula ought to be reshaped to account for the rise of things like machine learning? Is that something you've given any consideration?

Siegel: A little bit. I'm writing a book review right now for Advisor Perspectives, which is an industry newsletter, a very good one. And the review is of a book by Erik Larson that's called The Myth of Artificial Intelligence. I'm giving it a good review, so you can see where I'm going to come out. I believe that machine learning is a real thing. Machines can be programmed to learn, and that's a valuable tool in investment management. But when you step beyond that to the idea of artificial general intelligence, I think it's an illusion caused by very fast computers, very big data and very clever programmers who want to create that illusion. So, we have had 300 million years of evolution—not as human beings obviously but as animals—to develop a set of connections in our brains that actually are intelligent. Yet intelligence in the sense that we are talking about now didn't really emerge until the last 200,000 years. So, it is rare. It is fragile. And we don't know what it is. It's like Justice Potter Stewart said about pornography: We don't know what it is, but we know it when we see it. And to imagine that we're, as human beings, of one level of intelligence, whatever we are, can build a machine in a few decades of those 200,000 years that's more intelligent than we are with all that evolutionary heritage is frankly ridiculous. These machines are going to do what we tell them to do. But if we tell them using instructions that are crafted well enough, it will give the illusion of being intelligent. When I don't know how something works, like everybody else, I tend to think it's magic. I'm driving and there are two or three cars lined up at a red light, it immediately turns green and makes the other traffic stop because it's a smart red light, and all it's doing is counting the number of cars that are waiting for it to turn and changes the cycle, changes the frequency, according to the traffic instead of operating on a fixed time cycle. But it looks like a pretty smart red light when you haven't encountered it before and you say “Gee, that's really amazing.” Well, I think that AI as we're experiencing it now is kind of the same as that. It's just a technology that other people understand because they developed it, but we don't because we don't have the knowledge and so we feel like it's magic or intelligence, whichever you want to call it.

Benz: There's been a lot written about the glut of skilled, highly trained professionals in the investing field. Can you talk about the level of competition you see now versus what you saw earlier in your career?

Siegel: The industry has become way too big. Every stockbroker has become a financial advisor. Ninety-six percent of them ought to tell people buy, hold, diversify, and rebalance and minimize taxes, and then they have to fill in that outline through implementation. In other words, somebody has to do it; their clients aren't qualified to do it. But they should mostly be telling people to buy index funds and to use premixed asset-allocation decisions that conform to what somebody at the headquarters has decided is optimal. To add value for an individual, what you really need to do is be more like a psychologist and a life counselor who says, “You have too much debt, you're not saving enough; you have too many houses; at some point your assets become a liability.” Or you don't have a house at all, you are a renter—you might want to consider a house as a hedge against inflation. But telling them which securities to buy or micromanaging the list of mutual funds, to me, is a fool's errand for most people.

Inside the business, that's the public-facing side. Inside the business there are too many security analysts, too many asset allocators, too many broker/dealers. And I think that competition has become more and more people fighting over fewer and fewer real alpha opportunities, and that's why the competition feels so fierce. It used to be an easy business. And it's not easy anymore because the market is more efficient, I guess.

Ptak: Wanted to shift gears and talk about asset allocation, specifically the 60/40 portfolio. And my question for you, which is a question I think many are asking, is the 60/40 debt. It's having one of its worst years ever. But the paradox is that yields are now, albeit they're still paltry, they're now a little bit higher and valuations are a tad lower, which you'd think would boost the 60/40's future prospects. What's your take on the 60/40, Larry?

Siegel: I think that it's a pretty good consensus outcome of people buying what's available in the market. If you look at the supply of securities, it has to be somewhere around 60/40 because everybody holds it, and the supply and demand have to equilibrate in the long run. But why do issuers produce that ratio? I think that the underlying reason is that for a very long period of history, bonds were a very good investment. If you didn't have 40% in bonds, you wanted to, because they were producing high real returns. And that period is roughly 1981 to 2007. It's a long time. From 1940 to 1981, bonds did terribly because interest rates were going up and up and up, and we didn't have a lot of 60/40 portfolios, but what we had was mostly 0 or 100. Institutions bought fixed income to fund their pension plans. They bought fixed income to fund if there were insurance companies. The big money was in fixed income and equities were this gravy—you sold some stocks to some rich people. And over time as the stock market went up and the bond market didn't go up, you had greater interest in equities, and the consultants who emerged from this world of pension funds settled on 60/40 as a consensus. And so, you've got what I call the standard model. The allocators picked from a list of active managers in each asset class, usually buy way too many of them, didn't have access to index funds or didn't want to buy them. And so, they compared the performance of their active managers to benchmarks, fired the underperforming ones, gave more money to the outperforming ones, and since these things tend to run in cycles, generally underperform the market. They also had to have an overall asset-allocation policy where 50/50 was the tradition that they'd been coming from, but they moved it up to 60/40 because the stock market was beating the bond market and it just stayed there. Stocks are risky. So, 70/30 or 80/20 seemed like it was too volumed. We're all human, and we do what we see the person next to us doing. I think it’s really just consensus-building, although there is a supply aspect to it. You have to buy what's out there. And if we all decided to increase our allocation to equities, we couldn't. But we would just be buying them from each other. This is a point Cliff Asness made. He can usually be counted on for very good thinking.

Benz: Our research has found that fund investors tend to do a really poor job of utilizing so-called liquid alternative funds. If you take the illiquidity and gates away from alternatives, do you think they can still work for individual investors in the form of liquid alternatives?

Siegel: Well, the term liquid alternatives has changed over time. When I started hearing about liquid alternatives in the early to mid-90s, it meant hedge funds and to some extent managed-futures funds because the stuff they were buying was liquid, and then the illiquid alternatives were venture capital and private equity. Over time, liquid alternatives have come to mean liquid to the investor. And when you securitize an alternative investment, you've removed—so that you can trade it like a stock—you've removed the one thing that has tended to give alternative investments better returns, which is the lockup. If you can lock up somebody's money for a long time, you can take risks that don't necessarily pay off in the short run, but that may pay off in the long run. If you take that away, I would rather just invest in liquid nonalternatives, stocks, bonds, and some real estate. Although some people call real estate an alternative. It's the oldest asset class, so I'm reluctant to put it in the alternatives bucket.

Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about endowments. You spent a good chunk of your career in the endowment world. And as you know, a lot of ink has been spilled concerning debates over the endowment model. Some decried it as costly and complex, others defend it as path-breaking. What are the lessons an advisor or an individual investor should take away from the success of the endowment approach? And conversely, what are the lessons they need to unlearn, so to speak?

Siegel: I'll start with the last one because it's so easy. The lesson they need to unlearn is that if David Swensen can do it, so can I. He and the people at other big endowments and foundations have access to the best funds because they come to you, you don't have to go ferret them out. The best people they can afford to hire, outstanding analysts and other chief investment officers who can make millions. And if they do lose money, they have this capability of withstanding some pain. A foundation, in particular, which doesn't have professors to pay, or buildings to maintain, or students to give scholarships to, has to pay out 5% of whatever it has at the time, so if it loses some of the assets, their liabilities go down too in a one-to-one correspondence and so, at some level, they don't care. Of course, they do care because it's always better to have more money to give away than less. But the foundation isn't going to be destroyed by a 20% decline in the market.

Endowments are a little trickier because the liabilities are not so flexible. If you start paying your professors less, they will just go to another place that doesn't pay less. Students will do the same thing. But these institutions also have a lot of reserve in their fundraising ability. An ordinary individual investor doesn't have any of this backstop. If I want to raise funds, I have to work harder. I'm already working as hard as I can. And I don't have the option to reduce my liabilities by saying I'm just not going to pay them. So, individuals have to be inherently more conservative. You get older, life becomes a race against diminishing capabilities and your risk level has to go down as you get older. So, there's a lifecycle effect that institutions don't experience. So, I would say that's the main lesson is, endowments and foundations have generally done well, but they have some structural advantages over individuals. Unless you have a rich uncle—a university has a rich uncle—which is the alumni and yet that's not an unlimited resource any more than your rich uncle is. But it is a backstop for bad performance.

Benz: One investing paradox is that success demands humility, but humility is a tough sell. What's the humblest thing an investor can do to boost their odds of success while also attracting clients? Is it to have a long time horizon?

Siegel: Well, the humblest thing an investor can do is buy index funds. It says to the client, I don't know what stocks are going to do best, but other people collectively as a market make pretty good decisions, so I'm just going to trust them to say the prices are roughly right. And when you buy an index fund, you're making a bet that the prices are roughly right. They're obviously not exactly right. In terms of having a long time horizon, it can be humility, or it could be hubris. I can claim to have a long time horizon, but I don't know what liabilities I'm going to face tomorrow, so I better have a short time horizon with some of my investments and I could also live 30 more years, so I need to have a long time horizon with other parts of my portfolio. But the time horizon issue I don't see so much as humility versus hubris, but it's a planning tool that a lot of people don't use effectively.

Ptak: One of your more popular pieces of writing in recent years was an article you wrote on investing myths. If I'm not mistaken, I think you've updated it a few times to this point, the most recent being in 2020. Why'd you write it, and how would you change it if you were to update the piece yet again today?

Siegel: I wrote it because somebody in Brazil paid me to come down there and give a talk on Siegel's Nine Myths of Investing. So, when that gave me an outline I had to fill in. Most of the myths have changed over time. I've updated it every two to five years. And what would I change now? Well, first of all, you'd have to go back and look at what the myths are. I don't really think I have time to go over all of them. But the one that I would change today is that stocks and bonds are always negatively correlated, so each is a good hedge against the other. It's not true. It runs in cycles. There was a period where they were positively correlated in the ‘90s and then before that at some other time, and all of a sudden, it's back. So, with stock market down, the bond market is also down, and people say, "Diversification doesn't work." Well, first of all, nobody told you to go out and buy the longest bond. Diversification within the bond market works in the sense of holding some less-volatile, shorter-term securities. They sacrifice some yield in order to get that safety. Secondly, stocks and bonds will again be uncorrelated or negatively correlated someday. But this is not that day. And there are other assets. The one that comes to mind is the original alternative investment: cash. Right now, you’re losing money in cash in real terms, because inflation is so high. But, on average, over time cash has paid a percent or so over the inflation rate. And then the other one is real estate. I keep coming back to real estate because it has become the unloved stepchild in the investment world. And other than their house, nobody has any. The last time I heard somebody talking about real estate as an investment was probably in the decade of the 2000s, and probably it was going up a lot. Then there was a crash. And the crash stuck in people's minds while real estate itself turned around and went up again. And there may yet be another crash, but it's just another asset class that should probably be in your toolkit.

Other myths—I kind of went out on a limb in the last version of that article and started talking more about social and political issues. One is that we can transition to entirely green energy without disrupting the entire world economy. We can't. We either have to transition slowly, which may not be good enough, but I actually happen to think it is, because energy transitions have taken a half century or so—wood, coal, coal to oil, oil to natural gas, and so forth—and the next transition is not going to be all solar and wind. Nuclear power is going to be a vital and probably the most important part of it. So, if the myth that you're subscribing to is the, let's call it the European version, although that's not quite fair because they have plenty of nuclear power in Europe. It's not going to happen, but we're going to need all the energy we've got, because the world is getting richer fast. Growth rates in China are down to 5%. That's still huge. Indonesia is higher than that, and it's a country of 300 million people that most Americans couldn't find on a map. The energy demands are going to be huge from all these different parts of the world that are growing and becoming middle class. And so that myth is something I spent a little time on in the article and I would write more about it next time.

Benz: You more or less predicted the spate of inflation we would have before it happened. In fact, one of the myths you wrote about in 2020 was that the government could borrow all it wanted without sparking inflation. What did you see then and what do you think people should be monitoring to assess how long high inflation will persist into the future?

Siegel: My forecast at the time was based on basic economic history from the 1700 and 1800s, which is that when the government borrows more money than it can pay back, it's going to pay it back anyway but in cheaper dollars. And the way that you get cheaper dollars is to have inflation. Inflation is a transfer of resources, of real resources, from savers who are bondholders and cash holders, to borrowers, which in this case is the government itself. So, it's tax. So, when you have a budget—that's how government budgets, it's out of balance by a lot for a long time— you're going to have a lot of inflation, because it's the only way the government is going to be able to make those payments on the bonds. I didn't see anything in the economy other than the budget deficits. And it was so early that you could say, I was wrong. There's not much difference between being a decade and a half early and being outright wrong. So, I'll say I was wrong.

What I didn't see was the supply catastrophe that came with COVID and our response to COVID. So, when you get a supply shock like the one we've just been through, prices are going to rise, and you don't even need an unbalanced government budget, you don't need budget deficits for prices to rise when there are shortages of things because by ships not being able to dock and workers not coming to work, we just have never seen anything like this. And so, I think the inflation rate will come down from these astronomical rates to something more normal, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, but we're not going to go back to zero to 2, because governments have over-leveraged, and deleveraging is always inflationary.

Ptak: What role do you think top-down macro should play in an allocation and investing process? Obviously, it's hard to correctly make a macro bet, though we've just talked about one you did correctly make, but it's even harder to translate that into a successful investment. So, should most people just avoid macro and diversify and call it a day?

Siegel: If you mean macro bets to guide your general asset-allocation philosophy, I think you should. In other words, if you believe, as I do, that global economic growth, while slowing, is going to be very large in absolute terms for a very long time. In other words, the absolute terms meaning the number of overall dollars, or whatever your currency is, generated by the world economy that you want to hold equities because bonds don't give you a claim to that growth. And they give you a very indistinct claim I wouldn't bank on it. But international investors say that when a country is growing rapidly, the currency goes up, so you get a little bit of diversification that way. But equities are much more powerful, and international equities are frankly cheap relative to the United States. So, that's a macro bet, and I'm recommending it. But again, I recommended it for a long time. I thought the U.S. was expensive. It hasn't been cheap since the 2007-08-09 period. So, you should make an evaluation of those conditions and implement it through your portfolio.

In general, most Americans suffer from home country bias because the U.S. is so big that you can get a pretty diversified portfolio with just the S&P 500 actually, because that's a lot of stocks, and those are all the big caps. If you lived in Belgium, you would not be under the illusion that Belgium was the whole world. It's just you can reach the border in an hour from anywhere in the country. So, you've known since you were a little kid that there's a big world out there. We Americans just don't have that intuition. So, that's why I'm saying that international is a macro bet that is reasonable to make. Now, if by macro bets you think that you act like a hedge fund and you think that the pound is going to crash, and that oil is going to go to $70 and then back to $110. No, individual investors should not do that.

Benz: People aren't very good at respectfully disagreeing these days. You're someone who seems unafraid of having a fulsome debate. Besides stepping away from social media and the internet, what are some things we can do to exchange differing views without becoming polarized?

Siegel: Well, if I knew I would run for President. People have become dug in—I don't like it at all. Spend a quarter of your reading time reading points of view that you know in advance you're going to disagree with, see how that person expresses themselves and what arguments they make and trying to take their side mentally while you're reading it. Consider maybe I'm wrong, maybe they're right. If I name some names, that would be too obvious where my biases are. But I would read the moderates on the other side, because the extremists are extremists, and they overstate everything. That's about all I can think of other than be nice. If the people you care about and generally respect have different views from you, ask yourself why. It's not because they're crazy or stupid or evil. It's because they've looked at the same data in the broad sense. They've looked at the same world and come up with different conclusions. Try to think about why that might happen, and then picture them doing that to you. That's about all I have to say about that.

Ptak: Well, that's great advice and I think a great way to close this conversation, which we very much enjoyed, Larry. Thanks so much for your time and insights. We very much enjoyed having you on The Long View.

Siegel: Well, thank you very much.

Benz: Thanks so much, Larry.

Ptak: Thanks for joining us on The Long View. If you could, please take a minute to subscribe to and rate the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can follow us on Twitter @Syouth1, which is, S-Y-O-U-T-H and the number 1.

Benz: And @Christine_Benz.

Ptak: George Castady is our engineer for the podcast and Kari Greczek produces the show notes each week.

Finally, we'd love to get your feedback. If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Until next time, thanks for joining us.

(Disclaimer: This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording. Such opinions are subject to change. The views and opinions of guests on this program are not necessarily those of Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates. Morningstar and its affiliates are not affiliated with this guest or his or her business affiliates unless otherwise stated. Morningstar does not guarantee the accuracy, or the completeness of the data presented herein. Jeff Ptak is an employee of Morningstar Research Services LLC. Morningstar Research Services is a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. and is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Morningstar Research Services shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from or related to the information, data analysis or opinions or their use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. Individuals should seriously consider if an investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives and risk profile before making any investment decision.)

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Our guest on the podcast today is Justin Fitzpatrick. Justin is the co-founder and chief innovation officer at Income Lab, which provides retirement planning software. Before co-founding Income Lab, Justin spent over 15 years in financial services, leading teams in advanced financial planning and portfolio strategy and managing the development of financial technology tools. Prior to his work in financial services, Justin spent seven years in academia. He has taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Harvard University; Queen Mary, University of London; and the University of California, Los Angeles. Justin is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder and a Certified Financial Planner professional.

Background

Bio

Income Lab

Income Lab LinkedIn Page

Sequence Risk and Spending Rules

“Will Higher Inflation Harm Retirees?” by Justin Fitzpatrick, advisorperspectives.com, Feb. 14, 2022.

“How the 4% Rule Undermines Advisors and Clients,” by Johnny Poulsen, advisorperspectives.com, Oct. 25, 2021.

“Rethinking Risk in Retirement Planning,” by Justin Fitzpatrick, thinkadvisor.com, Oct. 1, 2021.

“Retirement Withdrawal Rates Alone Are Misleading. Here’s Why,” by Justin Fitzpatrick, financial-planning.com, Jan. 21, 2022.

“Reducing Retirement ‘Outrage’ Risk With Adjustment-Based Planning and Communication,” by Justin Fitzpatrick, kitces.com, May 19, 2021.

“How to Use Economic Context in Retirement Income Decision-Making,” by Justin Fitzpatrick, kitces.com, June 1, 2022.

“Exploring the Retirement Consumption Puzzle,” by David Blanchett, financialplanningassociation.com, May 2014.

“The Retirement Distribution ‘Hatchet’: Using Risk-Based Guardrails to Project Sustainable Cash Flows,” by Derek Tharp and Justin Fitzpatrick, kitces.com, Nov. 24, 2021.

“The Transformative Value of Retirement Planning as an Ongoing Service,” by Justin Fitzpatrick, incomelaboratory.com, 2020.

“The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Christine Benz, Jeff Ptak, and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com.

“A Dynamic Approach to Decumulation Planning,” Fintech Impact podcast with Jason Pereira, incomelaboratory.com, July 6, 2022.

Portfolio Construction, Housing, and Annuities

“’Next-Gen’ Retirement Planning Tool for Advisors Launched by Income Lab,” by Brian Anderson, thewealthadvisor.com, June 29, 2022.

“The Bucket Approach to Retirement Allocation,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Jan. 25, 2021.

Reverse Mortgages: How to Use Reverse Mortgages to Secure Your Retirement, by Wade Pfau

Robert C. Merton

“David Lau: Taking High Commissions Out of Annuities,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 21, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Tim Ranzetta. Tim is the co-founder of the nonprofit Next Gen Personal Finance, which provides free curricula, professional development, and advocacy tools to more than 40,000 teachers who reach 75% of high school students in the U.S. The goal of Next Gen Personal Finance and its community of teachers is for all high school students to take at least one stand-alone one-semester course focusing on personal finance by the end of 2030. Prior to founding NGPF, Tim co-founded several companies, including Equilar, a compensation and corporate governance research firm; and Student Lending Analytics, a student loan research firm. He began his career as a management consultant at Bain & Company. He graduated from the University of Virginia with a Bachelor of Science degree in commerce and received his MBA at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Background

Bio

Next Gen Personal Finance

Eastside College Preparatory School

What Works in Financial Education

Interactive: The Financial Times’ The Uber Game

“Financial Education Affects Financial Knowledge and Downstream Behaviors,” by Tim Kaiser, Annamaria Lusardi, Lukas Menkhoff, and Carly J. Urban, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2020.

“Annamarie Lusardi: ‘Financial Education Works,’ ” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Feb. 19, 2020.

Fidelity Youth Account

Million Bazillion podcast

“Bringing Personal Finance to the Classroom for Generation Z,” by Ann Carrns, nytimes.com, March 18, 2022.

“The Truth About Day Trading,” by Ben Felix, YouTube.com, Oct. 24, 2020.

The Stock Market Game

STAX

finviz.com

The State of Financial Education in the U.S.

“NGPF’s 2022 State of Financial Education Report,” ngpf.org, April 2022.

Jump$tart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy

Council for Economic Education

“Financial Education Mandates 2022,” poll by National Endowment for Financial Education, nefe.org, March 17-21, 2022.

“What I Learned Reading the State Auditor’s Report About Financial Education in Utah,” by Tim Ranzetta, ngpf.org, Oct. 22, 2018.

Mississippi Department of Education: National Board Certification—Master Teacher Program

The North Carolina Council on Economic Education

Rhode Island Department of Education

The Most Important Class You Never Had, NGPF documentary

Other

“Dan Otter and Scott Dauenhauer: Why Retirement Savings Options for Educators Are So Bad,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 28, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is real estate expert and author Ilyce Glink. Ilyce writes a nationally syndicated column on real estate matters, and she’s written more than a dozen books on real estate and home buying, including 100 Questions Every First-Time Homebuyer Should Ask, which is now in its fourth edition. She’s also a regular contributor to WGN Radio. Her latest project, Best Money Moves, is a mobile-first employee benefit designed to help employees with financial wellness and reduce financial stress. Ilyce received her bachelor’s degree in English literature from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Background

Bio

Ilyce Glink books

100 Questions Every First-Time Home Buyer Should Ask, Fourth Edition: With Answers From Top Brokers From Around the Country, by Ilyce Glink

Best Money Moves

ThinkGlink

Newsletter: Love, Money + Real Estate: Exploring Truths, Lies and Life’s Financial Milestones

Housing Market and Prospective Homebuyers

“What Today’s Market Means for First-Time Home Buyers,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, washingtonpost.com, May 25, 2022.

“Love, Money + Real Estate #014: Is a Recession Looming?” by Ilyce Glink, glink.substack.com, May 3, 2022.

“Real Estate Matters: Industry Trends as a New Year Arrives,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, heraldtribune.com, Jan. 16, 2022.

“Real Estate Matters: Homeowner Weighs Renting vs. Buying for Next Stage in Life,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, heraldtribune.com, Aug. 8, 2021.

“Retiree Considers Selling Townhouse, Buying Larger Single-Level Home,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, washingtonpost.com, May 30, 2022.

“Cullen Roche:  Macro Is About Understanding the World for What It Is,” The Long View podcast, morningstar.com, Jan. 11, 2022.

“Real Estate Trends for 2022,” by Ilyce Glink, thinkglink.com, Dec. 14, 2021.

Real Estate as an Investment

“Real Estate Matters: We Stand by Advice That LLCs Aren’t for All Property Investors,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, heraldtribune.com, Jan. 23, 2022.

Housing Shortage

“Underbuilding Has Led to ‘Acute Shortage’ of Housing and ‘Affordability Crisis,’ Study Says,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, washingtonpost.com, July 19, 2021.

Older Adults, Taxes, and Retirement

“Calculating Capital Gains,” by Ilyce Glink, thinkglink.com, May 9, 2022.

“Should You Prepay Your Mortgage?” by Ilyce Glink, hermoney.com, July 2, 2019.

“The Benefits of Paying Down a Mortgage Before Retirement,” Interview with Christine Benz and Ilyce Glink, morningstar.com, Sept. 4, 2018.

“Reverse Mortgages: Readers Share Their Experiences,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, washingtonpost.com, June 2, 2021.

“Reverse Mortgage Not Working Out? Here Are Some Options,” by Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin, washingtonpost.com, Dec. 1, 2021.

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Our guest on the podcast today is David Lau, founder and CEO of DPL Financial Partners, which develops and distributes low-cost, commission-free insurance and annuity products. In addition, DPL Financial Partners provides tools and educational resources for registered investment advisors and individual investors. Prior to founding DPL, David was chief operating officer of Jefferson National and before that he was principal and co-founder of the Oysterhouse Group, a management consulting firm. He also served as chief marketing officer of E-Trade Bank and its predecessor TeleBank. David received his bachelor's degree in economics from the College of William and Mary.

Background

Bio

DPL Financial Partners

Annuities

Annuities—Product Overview

Your Guide to Annuities

“Kerry Pechter: How Annuities Fit Into the Retirement Income Puzzle,” The Long View podcast, morningstar.com, May 4, 2021.

“DPL Financial RIA Survey Shows Continued Uptick in Annuity Usage,” insurancenewsnet.com, Sept. 30, 2021.

“Another Reason Advisors Are Warming to Annuities,” by Bernice Napach, thinkadvisor.com, Sept. 30, 2021.

“Talk Your Book: Rethinking the 4% Rule,” Podcast With Wade Pfau and David Lau, dplfp.com, May 2, 2022.

“DPL Financial Partners Launches Commission-Free MYGA Marketplace for RIAs,” businesswire.com, Dec. 2, 2021.

MYGA Marketplace

“A Day at DPL With Wade Pfau | How to Use a Fixed Index Annuity,” by Wade Pfau, dplfp.com, Feb. 3, 2020.

“Too Much ‘Hocus Pocus,’ ” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, June 4, 2021.

Taxes and Asset Location

“The Tax-Efficient Frontier: Improving the Efficient Frontier With the Power of Tax Deferral,” by David Lau, dplfp.com, Sept. 8, 2021.

“David Lau on Ways to Enhance the Tax Efficient Frontier at NAPFA Session,” by John Sullivan, thinkadvisor.com, May 19, 2011.

Other

“Long-Term Care a Big Question in Pandemic,” by Emile Hellez, investmentnews.com, July 2, 2020.

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This week we’re pleased to bring you a special “State of Retirement Income” episode, which we recorded live at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference held recently in Chicago, Illinois. For this discussion, we turn the tables on Christine, who is part of an expert retirement planning panel that also includes David Blanchett, managing director and head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions, and Karsten Jeske, the founder of Early Retirement Now. Both were guests on past episodes of The Long View.

In this panel discussion, recorded before a live audience, we delve into a number of retirement-planning topics, including the impact of inflation on spending patterns; the implications of the recent selloff on asset allocation; sequence-of-returns risk; optimal Social Security-claiming practices; the role and importance of guaranteed income sources; and a lot more. Without further ado, please enjoy this special episode of The Long View.

Background

“Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 14, 2020.

Karsten Jeske’s blog, Early Retirement Now

Karsten Jeske’s bio

David Blanchett’s bio

“David Blanchett: If You’re Retiring Now, You’re in a Pretty Rough Spot,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 18, 2019.

“Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler: How Much Can You Safely Spend in Retirement?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 21, 2021.

Inflation

“How Much Should You Worry About Inflation in Retirement?” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, March 26, 2021.

“Exploring the Retirement Consumption Puzzle,” by David Blanchett, financialplanningassociation.org, May 2014.

Safe Withdrawal Rates

The Trinity Study

“The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series—A Guide for First-Time Readers,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Nov. 15, 2021.

“The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, November 2021.

“What’s a Safe Retirement Spending Rate for the Decades Ahead?” by Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Nov. 11, 2021.

“Drawdown From Financial Accounts in Retirement,” Vanguard Research by Thomas J. De Luca and Anna Madamba, vanguard.com, July 2021.

Retirement Portfolio Construction

“Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 31, 2022.

“Bonds May Be Down, But Some Annuity Payouts Are Up,” by David Blanchett, thinkadvisor.com, May 13, 2022.

“Inflation at 7%! Here’s Why I’m Not Running for the Hills (Yet)!” by Karsten Jeske, earlyretirementnow.com, Jan. 13, 2022.

“The Bucket Approach to Retirement Allocation,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Jan. 25, 2021.

Christine Benz’s model bucket portfolios

Harold Evensky

What Is a Monte Carlo Simulation?

Guaranteed Income and Social Security

“Guaranteed Income: A License to Spend,” by David Blanchett and Michael Finke, papers.ssrn.com, June 28, 2021.

Open Social Security

Other

“Laura Carstensen: ‘I’m Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 14, 2021.

“Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311-2018,” by Paul Schmelzing, bankofengland.co.uk, January 2020.

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Tom Idzorek Show Notes

Our guest this week is Tom Idzorek. Tom is chief investment officer, retirement, for Morningstar Investment Management, which is Morningstar's affiliated asset-management arm. Previously, Tom was president of Morningstar Investment Management and before that was a leading researcher at Ibbotson Associates. Tom has collaborated on a number of influential academic studies on topics including asset allocation, the liquidity of stocks, and the role of popularity and security prices. Tom serves on the editorial board of the CFA Institute's Financial Analysts Journal. He received his bachelor's degree from Arizona State University and his MBA from Thunderbird School of Global Management. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Background

Bio

Asset Allocation and Managed Accounts

Roger Ibbotson

Peng Chen

Barton Waring

Larry Siegel

Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk, by Richard Grinold and Ronald Kahn

“Stop Guessing: Using Participant Data to Select the Optimal QDIA,” by Thomas Idzorek, David Blanchett, and Daniel Bruns, Morningstar.com, Jan. 30, 2018.

ByAllAccounts

Modern Portfolio Theory

Academic Research

“Liquidity Style of Mutual Funds,” by Thomas Idzorek, James Xiong, and Roger Ibbotson, papers.ssrn.com, Feb. 10, 2012.

“The Popularity Asset Pricing Model,” by Thomas Idzorek, Paul Kaplan, and Roger Ibbotson, papers.ssrn.com, Oct. 25, 2021.

“Forming ESG-Oriented Portfolios: A Popularity Approach,” by Thomas Idzorek and Paul Kaplan, papers.ssrn.com, May 20, 2022.

“Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance,” by Roger Ibbotson, Thomas Idzorek, Paul Kaplan, and James Xiong, papers.ssrn.com, Dec. 10, 2018.

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Our guest this week is Cliff Asness. Cliff is a founder, managing principal, and chief investment officer at AQR Capital Management. Cliff writes often about investing and financial matters on AQR’s website and has been a prolific researcher throughout his career, with his contributions appearing in many of the leading scholarly journals, including the Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analyst Journal, the Journal of Finance, and the Journal of Financial Economics. This work has earned him accolades, including the James R. Vertin Award, which the CFA Institute bestows on those who produced a body of research notable for its relevance in enduring value to investment professionals. Before cofounding AQR, Cliff was a managing director and director of quantitative research for the asset-management division of Goldman Sachs. He earned dual bachelor’s degrees, one in economics from the Wharton School and another in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as an MBA and Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago. We recorded this episode live and in person at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference, which was recently held in Chicago.

Background

Bio

@CliffordAsness

Return Environment

Antti Ilmanen

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least, by Antti Ilmanen

“Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Equity,” by Antti Ilmanen, Swati Chandra, and Nicholas McQuinn, aqr.com, Jan. 31, 2019.

“The Illiquidity Discount?” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Dec. 19, 2019.

“Why Not 100% Equities,” by Clifford Asness, aqr.com, Dec. 1, 1996.

“Leverage Aversion and Risk Parity,” by Clifford S. Asness, Andrea Frazzini, Lasse H. Pedersen, aqr.com, January/February 2012.

“An Update to Cliff Asness’s Study on the Benefits of a Levered 60/40,” by Jeremy Schwartz, wisdomtree.com, May 20, 2021.

“Are Value Stocks Cheap for a Fundamental Reason?” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Aug. 30, 2021.

“The Long Run Is Lying to You,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, March 4, 2021.

“Quant Legend Cliff Asness Is Back to Defending Value Again,” by Justina Lee, Bloomberg.com, July 15, 2021.

“Still Crazy After All This YTD,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, May 9, 2022.

“Everything and More,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, April 4, 2022.

“Bonds Are Frickin’ Expensive,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Aug. 13, 2019.

“Should Taxable Investors Shun Dividends?” by Ronen Israel, Joseph Liberman, Nathan Sosner, Lixin Wang, The Journal of Wealth Management, Winter 2019.

ESG

“Cliff Asness Says ESG Is Here to Stay Amid Growing Interest,” by Isabelle Lee and Silla Brush, Bloomberg.com, May 17, 2022.

“Shorting Counts,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Feb. 23, 2022.

“Shorting Your Way to a Greener Tomorrow,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Sept. 7, 2021.

“Virtue Is Its Own Reward: Or, One Man’s Ceiling Is Another Man’s Floor,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, May 8, 2017.

Taxes

“Now There’s Nothing Certain But Death,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Jan. 15, 2021.

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Our guest this week is Eric Balchunas, who is a senior exchange-traded fund analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, where he writes for and leads the fund research team. Balchunas is a fixture in financial media. He hosts the TV show Bloomberg ETF IQ and the podcast Trillions and is also a mainstay of social media under his popular Twitter account @EricBalchunas. Balchunas is also an accomplished author, his latest book being The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions, which we devote this episode to discussing. He earned his bachelor's degree in journalism and environmental economics from Rutgers University.

Bio

Twitter: @EricBalchunas

The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions

"Inside 'The Bogle Effect'," Trillions podcast, Bloomberg.com, April 27, 2022.

"Investor Jack Bogle Founded His Legendary Company Based on His Princeton Senior Thesis," by Veronika Kero, cnbc.com, Jan. 17, 2019.

"How the Index Fund Was Born," by John C. Bogle, The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 3, 2011.

"Challenge to Judgment," by Paul A. Samuelson, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 1974.

"Q&A With Jack Bogle: "We're in the Middle of a Revolution'," by Michael Regan, Bloomberg.com, Nov. 23, 2016.

Gus Sauter

Ted Aronson

Michael Lewis

Jason Zweig

"Investing Legend Jack Bogle Says There's a Big Problem With Index Funds," by Sergei Klebnikov, money.com, Nov. 30, 2018.

Stay the Course: The Story of Vanguard and the Index Revolution, by John C. Bogle

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns, by John C. Bogle

Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life, by John C. Bogle

Character Counts: The Creation and Building of The Vanguard Group, by John C. Bogle

"Sheryl Garrett: 'The Industry Thought I Was Nuts'," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, July 17, 2019.

"Michael Kitces: The Model Has to Change Again," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 5, 2019.

"Rick Ferri: 'There Are No Average Investors'," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, July 3, 2019.

"Gus Sauter: Efficient Markets Are a Good Thing," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 4, 2019.

"Jack Brennan: Price Pressure in the Advice Business 'Is Inevitable'," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 23, 2021.

"Jason Zweig: Temperament Is Everything for Most Investors," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 29, 2021.

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Our guest today is Ric Edelman, the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, or DACFP, an organization he formed in 2018. DACFP aims to advance financial professionals' knowledge of blockchain and digital assets. Prior to forming DACFP, Edelman and his wife Jean founded Edelman Financial Services, which grew to become one of the largest Registered Investment Advisors in the United States before it acquired Financial Engines to form Edelman Financial Engines in 2018. Edelman is a fixture in financial media where he is known for his radio show and frequent print and television appearances and has authored numerous books, including his latest, The Truth About Crypto: A Practical, Easy-to-Understand Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, NFTs, and Other Digital Assets. Edelman began his career as a journalist after graduating from Rowan University with a degree in communications.

Bio

Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP)

DACFP Course on Blockchain and Digital Assets℠

Edelman Financial Engines

The Truth About Crypto: A Practical, Easy-to-Understand Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, NFTs, and Other Digital Assets, by Ric Edelman

The Truth About Your Future With Ric Edelman

Other books by Ric Edelman

"Crypto Attitudes Around the World," by Ric Edelman, dacfp.com, April 25, 2022.

"Ric Edelman Expects the SEC Will Approve a Bitcoin ETF," by Bernice Napach, benefitspro.com, July 2, 2021.

"A Bitcoin ETF Could Be a Game-Changer for Advisors. Not Everyone's Buying It," by Avi Salzman, Barron's, Oct. 19, 2021.

"Ric Edelman's '22 Predictions for 2022," by Brian Anderson, 401kspecialistmag.com, Dec. 29, 2021.

"Here's the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin, According to Yale Data,” by Ali Montag, cnbc.com, Aug. 8, 2018.

"Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrency for Investment Professionals," by Matt Hougan and David Lawant, CFA Institute, 2021.

"What's Coming Next in This Technological and Investment Revolution," YouTube, April 13, 2022.

Milken Institute

Stanford Center on Longevity

"Laura Carstensen: 'I'm Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,'" The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 14, 2021.

"Ric Edelman on the Future of Retirement," YouTube, Nov. 1, 2021.

"U.S. Is Facing 'a Real Retirement Crisis,' Top Investor Says—His Plan for Doubling Savings and Reducing Income Inequality," by Lizzy Gurdus, cnbc.com, June 22, 2021.

"More Americans Could Outlive Their Savings. How Advisors Can Protect Them," by Amey Stone, Barron's, July 21, 2021.

"This Chart Perfectly Sums Up Why It’s Important to Have a Diverse Investment Portfolio," by Kathleen Elkins, cnbc.com, Jan. 12, 2021.

Richard Thaler

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Our guest this week is Keith Lee. Keith has been lead portfolio manager on the Brown Capital Management Small Company Strategy since 1992. He and the Small Company team were named Morningstar’s Fund Manager of the Year for Domestic Equity in 2015, and the mutual fund carries a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Gold. Keith is also a member of the board of directors and chairman of the management committee for Brown, and he has held the positions of CEO and CIO. He is a trustee of the Baltimore Community Foundation and active in many other Baltimore-based philanthropies. He holds a BA and an MBA from the University of Virginia.

Background

Bio

Brown Capital Management

Brown Capital Management Small Company Strategy

Brown Capital’s Proprietary Investment Philosophy

“Morningstar’s 2015 US Fund Manager of the Year Award Winners Delivered Superior Performance,” Morningstar.com, Jan. 26, 2016.

Brown Capital

“The Oracle of Apopka: Meet Eddie Brown, One of Wall Street’s Greatest Untold Stories,” by Antoine Gara, forbes.com, May 28, 2019.

“The Case for Going Small,” browncapital.com, March 27, 2023.

“I’m a Black CEO. I’ve Been Discounted on Wall Street Because of my Skin Color,” by Eddie Brown, washingtonpost.com, July 8, 2020.

“Team Decisions: Why Our Investment Team Structure Helps Us Make Better Decisions,” by Keith Lee, browncapital.com, Sept. 14, 2022.

“How We Think About Performance,” by Keith Lee, browncapital.com, June 30, 2022.

“Small Company Team Awarded Morningstar’s High ‘People Rating,’” browncapital.com, May 22, 2022.

Other

Beating the Odds: Eddie Brown’s Investing and Life Strategies, by Eddie Brown

“Opposites Attract: Why Financial Services Firms and ESOPS Are Made For Each Other,” by Mary Josephs, forbes.com, June 7, 2021.

“Mutual Funds 2030,” PwC study, pwc.com.

“Sizing the Prize—PwC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Exploiting the AI Revolution,” PwC study, pwc.com.

Cognex

Bio-Techne

Veeva Systems

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Our guest on the podcast today is Brian Feroldi. Brian is the author of a new book called Why Does the Stock Market Go Up? He is also a writer and contributor to the Motley Fool, where he focuses on the technology and healthcare industries. In addition, Brian has a big presence on YouTube. The videos on his YouTube channel have hundreds of thousands of views. He received his bachelor's degree from the University of Connecticut and his MBA from the University of Rhode Island.

Background

Bio

Brian Feroldi—Spread Financial Wellness YouTube channel

Why Does the Stock Market Go Up? Everything You Should Have Been Taught About Investing in School, But Weren’t

Individual Stock Investing

“10 Investing Lessons for Stock Market Beginners,” by Brian Feroldi, youtube.com, July 15, 2021.

“The Hardest Part About Picking Stocks for New Investors,” video with Brian Feroldi and Brian Withers, fool.com, Feb. 10, 2021.

“Opinion: ‘Time in the Stock Market Is More Important Than Timing the Market’ and More Critical Money and Investing Lessons I Wish My Younger Self Had Understood,” by Brian Feroldi, marketwatch.com, May 5, 2022.

Peter Lynch

“Brian Feroldi’s Stock Investing Checklist: A Step by Step Guide,” by Brian Feroldi, youtube.com, June 18, 2021.

Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, by Nassim Taleb

“Good Reasons to Ignore Valuation,” by Brian Feroldi, MicroCap Leadership Summit 2021, microcapclub.com, Oct. 6, 2021.

“Interview With Tom Engle: Investing Legend,” with Chris Reining, chrisreining.com.

“GameStop: Squeezed to the Max|Brian Feroldi|EP 293,” choosefi.com, Feb. 4, 2021.

“The 5 Biggest Investing Mistakes I’ve Ever Made,” by Brian Feroldi, yahoo.com, Sept. 23, 2018.

Other

ChooseFI

Afford Anything

All the Hacks

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Rule Breaker Investing

Bankless

The Tim Ferriss Show

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Our guest this week is Jim Grant. Jim is the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly newsletter on financial markets with a focus on bonds. He is the author of numerous books and has made frequent appearances in the financial press where his views on markets and the macroeconomy are much sought after. Before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Jim did stints as a journalist, first as a reporter at The Baltimore Sun, and later at Barron's. He received his bachelor's degree from Indiana University and his master's in international relations from Columbia University.

Background

Bio

Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself

Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond

Money of the Mind

Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian

Inflation and Interest Rates

“Jim Grant: The Fed Cannot Control Inflation,” by Robert Huebscher, advisorperspectives.com, May 4, 2021.

“Jim Grant: The Trouble With Treasuries,” by James Grant, barrons.com, Oct. 11, 2019.

“The High Cost of Low Interest Rates,” by James Grant, wsj.com, April 1, 2020.

“Happy Birthday, Federal Reserve! Have Some Punch (Before the Bowl Gets Taken Away),” by Paul Vigna, wsj.com, Dec. 23, 2013.

“The Inflation Headshake,” by Eric Cinnamond, palmvalleycapital.com, March 9, 2022.

Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF

Murray Stahl bio

“Jim Grant: The Endgame for the Bull Market in Bonds,” by James Grant, barrons.com, Sept. 13, 2019.

“Jim Grant: Low Interest Rates Forever? Don’t Get Used to That Idea,” by James Grant, barrons.com, June 7, 2019.

“James Grant: Bitcoin and Other Bubbles,” Wealthtrack podcast, youtube.com, Feb. 26, 2021.

Policymaking

“Jim Grant: The Big Flaw in Ph.D-conomics,” by James Grant, barrons.com, July 19, 2019.

What Is the Taylor Rule?

A History of Interest Rates, by Sidney Homer

Recession and Macroeconomic Forecast

“The Difficult Art of Conjuring Up Yield From Mortgage-Backed Securities,” by James Grant, barrons.com, March 15, 2019.

“The Fed Is Well Behind the Curve: Jim Grant,” cnbc.com interview, youtube.com, Feb. 25, 2022.

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Our guest on the podcast today is William Reichenstein. Dr. Reichenstein is an author and emeritus professor of finance at Baylor University. He is also head of research for Social Security Solutions and Retiree, Inc., where he and William Meyer have developed software to facilitate tax-efficient Social Security and asset-drawdown strategies for retirees. His recent books include Income Strategies and Social Security Strategies with William Meyer. A fourth edition of that book will be forthcoming soon. He has also published more than 200 articles in various financial journals. He earned his B.A. in economics from St. Edward's University and his Ph.D. from the University of Notre Dame. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Bio

Social Security Solutions

Income Solver

Income Strategies: How to Create a Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategy to Generate Retirement Income, by William Reichenstein

Social Security Strategies: How to Optimize Retirement Benefits, by William Reichenstein and William Meyer

“Pay Attention to Marginal Tax Rates and Not Tax Brackets,” by William Reichenstein, advisorperspectives.com, Sept. 28, 2021.

“Tax Considerations for Relatively Wealthy Households,” by William Reichenstein, Journal of Financial Planning, December 2021.

“How Social Security Coordination Can Add Value to a Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategy,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, jor.pm-research.com, Fall 2021.

“Saving in Roth Accounts and Making Roth Conversions Before Retirement in Today’s Low Tax Rates,” by William Reichenstein, financialplanningassociation.org, July 2020.

“Investment Implications of the Rising and Falling Pattern of Marginal Tax Rates for Retirees,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, jor.pm-research.com, Summer 2020.

“A Comparison of the Tax Efficiency of Decumulation Strategies,” by Greg Geisler, Bill Harden, and David Hulse, financialplanningassociation.org, March 2021.

“Advice for Married Couples When One Spouse Will Die Years(s) Before the Other Spouse,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, financialplanningassociation.org, January 2021.

“Using Roth Conversions to Add Value to Higher-Income Retirees’ Financial Portfolios,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, financialplanningassociation.org, February 2020.

“The Asset-Location Decision and Related Topics,” by William Reichenstein, advisorperspectives.com, June 1, 2020.

“Basic Truths About Asset Allocation: A Consensus View Among the Experts,” by William Reichenstein, aaii.com, July 2019.

“How to Prepare for a No-to-Low 2021 Social Security COLA,” by William Reichenstein, thestreet.com, July 27, 2020.

“The Relationship Between Wealth and Delaying Social Security Benefits,” by William Reichenstein, aaii.com, June 2020.

“Social Security Claiming Strategies for Singles and Their Implications for Couples,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, financialplanningassociation.org, May 2021.

“A Top Social Security Expert Blasts Biden’s Reform Plan,” by Jane Wollman Rusoff, thinkadvisor.com, June 2, 2020.

“Understanding the Tax Torpedo and Its Implications for Various Retirees,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, financialplanningorganization.org, July 2018.

“How Retirees Can Avoid the ‘Tax Torpedo’,” by Mark Miller, Morningstar.com, Feb. 9, 2022.

“Minimizing the Damage of the Tax Torpedo,” by William Reichenstein, financialplanningorganization.org, September 2021.

“Medicare and Tax Planning for Higher-Income Households,” by William Reichenstein and William Meyer, jwm.pm-research.com, Winter 2019.

“How Retirees Can Avoid Higher Medicare Premiums,” by William Reichenstein, wsj.com, June 14, 2018.

“There Is No Perfect Way to Protect Your Investments Against Inflation,” by Anne Tergesen, goodwordnews.com, Feb. 14, 2022.

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Our guest this week is Mary Childs. Mary is a cohost and correspondent for National Public Radio's Planet Money. Previously, she was a reporter at Barron's magazine and before that, a reporter at the Financial Times and Bloomberg News. She received her bachelor's degree in business journalism from Washington & Lee University. Mary is the author of a new biography about the iconic Pimco bond fund manager, Bill Gross. It's called the The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All. We spent this episode delving into the book with Mary's help.

Background

Bio

Planet Money podcast

The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All, by Mary Childs

Pimco Total Return Analyst Report

Early Life and Career

Beat the Dealer, by Ed Thorpe

“The Strange Billionaire Who Revolutionized the Bond Market,” by Greg Rosalsky, npr.org, March 15, 2022.

“Bill Gross Made the Bond Market What It Is Today,” by Mary Childs, barrons.com, Feb. 8, 2019.

Psychology and Motivations

Jeffrey Gundlach

“Gross Friendly to Fannie and Freddie,” by Bloomberg News, investmentnews.com, Oct. 31, 2011.

“Pimco Shook Hands With the Fed—and Made a Killing,” by Reuters, cnbc.com, Sept. 27, 2013.

“Special Report—The Twilight of the Bond King,” by Jennifer Ablan and Matthew Goldstein, reuters.com, Feb. 9, 2012.

“Announcing the Morningstar Fund Managers of the Decade,” by Karen Dolan, Morningstar.com, Jan. 12, 2010.

“Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked,” by Mary Childs, Bloomberg.com, Dec. 2, 2014.

“Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World’s Biggest Bond Firm,” by Gregory Zuckerman and Kirsten Grind, wsj.com, Feb. 24, 2014.

“Pimco Dissidents Challenge Bill Gross in ‘Happy Kingdom,’” by Mary Childs, Bloomberg.com, July 8, 2014.

“Gross: Economy Can’t Survive Much Higher Rates,” keynote presentation at the Morningstar Investment Conference, Morningstar.com, June 25, 2014.

Gross’ Departure From Pimco

Mohamed El-Erian

“Exclusive: Pimco’s Gross Declares El-Erian Is ‘Trying to Undermine Me,’” by Jennifer Ablan, reuters.com, March 6, 2014.

“5 Years Later: Pimco Total Return,” by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, June 26, 2018.

“Pimco in the Post-Gross Era,” by Eric Jacobson, Morningstar.com, Dec. 26, 2017.

“Gross Loses Pimco Power Struggle With ‘Stunning’ Exit,” by Mary Childs and Alexis Leondis, Bloomberg.com, Sept. 26, 2014.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Nick Maggiulli. He is the author of a new book called "Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth." He is also the author of OfDollarsAndData.com, a blog focused on the intersection of data and personal finance. In addition, he is COO and data scientist for Ritholtz Wealth Management. He graduated from Stanford University with a degree in economics.

Background

Bio

Of Dollars And Data

Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth

Personal Finance

What Is a Data Scientist?

“Go Big, Then Stop,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, July 27, 2021.

“The Biggest Lie in Personal Finance,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Feb. 4, 2020.

“The 9 Best Income Producing Assets to Grow Your Wealth,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Sept. 15, 2020.

“Just 5 Years Can Change Your Life,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Dec. 28, 2021.

“We Begin our Lives as Growth Stocks, but end our Lives as Value Stocks,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Nov. 24, 2020.

“How to Spend Money,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Dec. 3, 2019.

The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, by Barry Schwartz

Investing and Markets

“Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Feb. 25, 2020.

“How Often Does Dollar-Cost Averaging Fail?” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, June 29, 2021.

“We Are All Investors Now,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, July 20, 2021.

“The Yield Curve Just Inverted…Now What?” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, April 5, 2022.

“How to Save for a Big Purchase,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Nov. 17, 2020.

“In Defense of Global Stocks,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, July 6, 2021.

“Why Investing Like Your Neighbors Isn’t as Dumb as It Seems,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Feb. 1, 2022.

“Why You Shouldn’t Pick Individual Stocks,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, April 6, 2021.

“Why Market-timing Can Be So Appealing,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Jan. 28, 2020.

“When Does Market-timing Work?” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, May 7, 2019.

“Ask Yourself Why,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, March 28, 2018.

Other

Kyla Scanlon

Jack Raines

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Our guest on the podcast today is author and blogger JL Collins. He blogs about financial and other matters at JLCollinsnh.com. Collins' first book, The Simple Path to Wealth: Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life was published in 2016 and has been an international best-seller. His latest book is How I Lost Money in Real Estate Before It Was Fashionable. That one came out in 2021.

Bio

JLCollinsnh.com

The Simple Path to Wealth: Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life

How I Lost Money in Real Estate Before It Was Fashionable: A Cautionary Tale

"Stocks--Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the Simplest Path to Wealth of All," by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Dec. 18, 2012.

“Stocks—Part XIII: The 4% Rule, Withdrawal Rates and How Much Can I Spend Anyway?" by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Dec. 7, 2012.

"The Alfred Hitchcock Path to FI," by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 5, 2021.

"The Trinity Study and Portfolio Success Rates," by Wade Pfau, Forbes, Jan. 16, 2018.

"Stocks—Part XXVII: Why I Don't Like Dollar Cost Averaging," by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 12, 2014.

"Truly Passive Real Estate Investing," by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 28, 2018.

"Why Your House Is a Terrible Investment," by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 29, 2013.

The Psychology of Money, by Morgan Housel

Why Does the Stock Market Go Up? Everything You Should Have Been Taught About Investing in School, But Weren't, by Brian Feroldi

Quit Like a Millionaire: No Gimmicks, Luck, or Trust Fund Required, by Kristy Shen and Bryce Leung

Rich & Regular blog

Cashing Out: Win the Wealth Game by Walking Away, by Julien and Kiersten

Taking Stock: A Hospice Doctor's Advice on Financial Independence, Building Wealth, and Living a Regret-Free Life, by Jordan Grumet

Earn & Invest podcast

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Our guests on the podcast today are Dan Otter and Scott Dauenhauer. Together they run the website 403bwise, which is geared toward providing education and advocacy on retirement planning for educators. Dan started 403bwise in 2000 with John Moore as a means of shedding light on the often opaque landscape of retirement plans for K-12 educators. Scott is a certified financial planner and principal and owner of Meridian Wealth Management. He got interested in the 403(b) space after researching retirement plan options available to his wife, who is a teacher. They've each written books about 403(b)s and retirement planning for K-12 educators. Dan's is called Teach and Retire Rich, while Scott's book is called Wild West: Providing Fiduciary Advice to Public School Employees. They also host a podcast called Teach and Retire Rich, and they recently released a short podcast series called Learned by Being Burned: Teachers in the K-12 403(b).

Background

403bwise.org

Dan Otter

Teach and Retire Rich, by Dan Otter

Scott Dauenhauer

Wild West: Providing Fiduciary Advice to Public School Employees, by Scott Dauenhauer

Teach and Retire Rich podcast

Learned by Being Burned podcast

The Ins and Outs of 403(b)s

“401(k) and 403(b) Plans: Knowing the Difference,” investopedia.com, March 19, 2021.

“Many Teacher Pension Plans Get Failing Grade,” by Kaitlin Mulhere, money.com, Aug. 31, 2021.

“How 403bwise.org Provides Financial Education to K-12 Employees,” by Dan Otter, investmentnews.com, April 9, 2021.

What Is a 457 plan?

“457(b)s: The Solution to Bad K-12 403(b) Plans?” by Dan Otter, investmentnews.com, July 29, 2021.

“Project Aims to Grade 14,000 School Districts’ 403(b) Plans,” by Emile Hallez, investmentnews.com, Jan. 4, 2022.

“The Two Faces of 403(b) Index Funds,” by Scott Dauenhauer, 403b.substack.com, Oct. 7, 2021.

403bCompare.com

NEA DirectInvest

Next Gen Personal Finance

“Bringing Personal Finance to the Classroom for Generation Z,” by Ann Carrns, nytimes.com, March 18, 2022.

New York State Deferred Compensation Plan

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Our guest today is Eric Schoenstein. Eric is a managing director at Jensen Investment Management, where he serves as the firm’s chief investment officer and is a portfolio manager of several Jensen strategies, including its flagship Quality Growth strategy. That strategy is a concentrated portfolio of 25-30 stocks of growing businesses that Jensen’s team believes boast durable competitive advantages. Prior to joining Jensen in 2002, Eric was a senior manager at Arthur Andersen. He earned his bachelor’s in business administration from Oregon State University. He is also a trustee and the board chair for the Oregon State University Foundation Board of Trustees.

Background

Bio

Jensen Quality Growth

Quality and Growth

"15 Cheap Growth Stocks Amid the Volatility," by Dave Sekera, Morningstar.com, Feb. 28, 2022.

"The Best Way To Capture Quality Growth," by Helen Fowler, ETF.com, Dec. 4, 2013.

"The What, Why, and How of Quality," by Ben Johnson, Morningstar.com, March 30, 2016.

“A Closer Look at Quality: The Fuzziest of Factors,” by Ben Johnson, Morningstar.com, Feb. 13, 2019.

Risk Management

“Risk Management--U.S. Equity Investing,” by Eric H. Schoenstein.

“Interview With Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management,” Motley Fool, June 3, 2016.

“Jensen Quality Growth Invests Patiently--and Very Successfully,” by Reshma Kapadia, Barron’s, Jan. 21, 2017.

“Q&A: Jensen Investment on Bracing for Volatility,” by Coryanne Hicks, U.S. News & World Report, Jan. 13, 2021.

Stocks

“Jensen Quality Growth Fund: Stock Investing With a High Hurdle for Entry,” by Steve Schaefer, Forbes, July 23, 2013

“Jensen Fund Managers Asks One Really Important Question When Deciding to Invest,” by John Sullivan, ThinkAdvisor.com, June 24, 2012.

“How Microsoft, PepsiCo and Other Solid Plays Helped This Fund Manager Ride Out a Bumpy Decade,” Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch, Jan. 29, 2020.

“Microsoft Results Point to New Growth Chapter,” by Daisuke Wakabayashi, Reuters, Oct. 29, 2007.

“Apple Services to Drive Next Leg of Growth, Says Schoenstein,” Bloomberg Technology, March 27, 2018.

“Why One Of 2016's Best Large-Cap Funds Finally Bought Apple Shares,” Steve Schaefer, Forbes, April 11, 2016.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Terrance Odean. Dr. Odean is the Rudd Family Foundation Professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Individual investor trading has been a key area of research throughout his academic career. In 2016, Dr. Odean received the James R. Vertin Award from the CFA Institute for research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. He has been an editor and an associate editor of numerous academic finance journals, including The Review of Financial Studies, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Behavioral Finance. As an undergraduate student at UC Berkeley, Dr. Odean studied judgment and decision-making with a 2002 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Daniel Kahneman.

Background

Bio

The Review of Financial Studies

The Journal of Finance

The Journal of Behavioral Finance

Free Trading and Robinhood

“Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, faculty.haas.berkeley.edu, 2002.

“The Behavior of Individual Investors,” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, umass.edu, September 2011.

“Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence From Robinhood Users,” by Brad Barber, Xing Huang, Terrance Odean, and Christopher Schwarz, paper.ssrn.com, Oct. 12, 2021.

“Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, faculty.haas.berkeley.edu, April 2000.

“All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors,” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, academic.oup.com, April 2008.

“Robbin’ Who?” by William Ehart, humbledollar.com, May 11, 2021.

“Systematic Noise,” by Brad Barber, Terrance Odean, papers.ssrn.com, May 2006.

Gender Differences in Investing

“Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment,” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, papers.ssrn.com, November 1998.

“Seeing Is Believing: Female Leaders’ Presence Narrows the Gender Gap in Girls’ Aspirations and Advancement in Education,” by Lori Beaman, Esther Duflo, Rohini Pande, and Petia Topalova, gap.hks.harvard.edu, February 2012.

“What Accounts for the Gender Equality Among Pharmacists?” by Claudia Goldin, premarket.org, Oct. 7, 2021.

Behavioral Finance

Daniel Kahneman

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Our guest this week is Andrew Miller. Andrew is a partner at Creative Planning where he advises clients on financial planning and investment issues. Prior to joining Creative Planning in 2020, Andrew was a partner at Miller Financial Management, where he focused on portfolio construction, financial and tax planning, as well as investment management. He's active on social media--you can find him on Twitter @millerak42--and has authored research on various financial-planning and investing topics that you can find online. Andrew is a CFA charterholder and also is a certified financial planner. He received his bachelor's degree in finance from Indiana University.

Background

Bio

General

“Alpha, Beta, and Now ... Gamma,” by David Blanchett and Paul Kaplan, Morningstar.com, Aug. 28, 2013.

Asset Allocation and Portfolio Construction

“Alternative Investments--A Field Manual,” by Andrew Miller, alphaarchitect.com, Oct. 3, 2019.

“Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Bear? Many Investors Shouldn’t Be That Concerned,” by Andrew Miller, alphaarchitect.com, March 2, 2018.

Investing

What Is Home Country Bias?

“Investors Have Fewer Reasons Than Ever for Home Bias,” by Ben Johnson, Morningstar.com, June 7, 2019.

“The Illiquidity Discount?” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Dec. 19, 2019.

“Rebalance Your Portfolio? You Are a Market Timer and Here’s What to Consider,” by Andrew Miller, alphaarchitect.com, March 23, 2017.

“Large-Cap Price-to-Book Investing: What Is Dead May Never Die,” by Andrew Miller, alphaarchitect.com, June 25, 2019.

“Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes,” by Jesse Livermore, osam.com, September 2020.

What Is FRED?

Retirement

“Using Trend-Following Managed Futures to Increase Expected Withdrawal Rates,” by Andrew Miller,

Papers.ssrn.com, Oct. 7, 2017.

“Using Flexible Spending to Achieve Financial Goals,” by Andrew Miller, alphaarchitect.com, March 5, 2019.

“Should Retirees Still Follow the 4% Rule?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 23, 2021.

“The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Nov. 11, 2021.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Jamila Souffrant. She is the author of a new book called Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness. She is also the host of the Journey to Launch podcast. Jamila’s focus is helping people increase their net worths and eliminate debt while also enjoying financial freedom. Prior to starting up her own business, Journey to Launch, she worked at MetLife for 13 years, where she managed a multimillion-dollar portfolio of real estate assets.

Background

Bio

Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness, by Jamila Souffrant

Journey to Launch podcast

Journey to Launch Podcast

“Episode 366: How to Bounce Back From Financial Setbacks and Adversity W/ Lynnette Khalfani-Cox,” Journey to Launch podcast.

“Episode 350: Creating Your Dream Life, Identifying Your Goals, & the Guacamole Lifestyle Levels,” Journey to Launch podcast.

“Episode 137—The Black Tax: The Cost of Being Black in America With Shawn Rochester,” Journey to Launch podcast.

“Episode 193—How I Bought My Condo at 22 Years Old & My Biggest Takeaways & Lessons Learned,” Journey to Launch podcast.

Other

“Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) Explained: How It Works,” by Alexandra Kerr, Investopedia.com, May 15, 2024.

Mr. Money Mustache

Mad Fientist

“Lynnette Khalfani-Cox: ‘There’s a Huge Wealth Gap in America,’” The Long View podcast, morningstar.com, Sept. 28, 2021.

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Our guest on the podcast today is consumer advocate and personal finance expert Clark Howard. Clark has been hosting the nationally syndicated radio show and podcast The Clark Howard Show since 1989. He's also the author of 10 books, three of which have been New York Times best-sellers. He also sponsors the Consumer Action Center, which is a free resource for advice on money and consumer issues. He received his B.A. in urban government from American University, and his MBA from Central Michigan University.

Background

Bio

Clark.com

The Clark Howard Podcast

Books by Clark Howard

Home Ownership, Debt, and Investing

“Should I Pay Off Debt, Save Money or Invest?” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, Feb. 18, 2021.

“How to Pay Off Debt and Save Money on a Fixed Income,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, Nov. 25, 2020.

“Key Rules for First-Time Homebuyers and Investors in Real Estate,” by Clark Howard, clark.com, March 22, 2017.

“Clark Howard Has Advice if You’re Looking to Buy a Home Amid the Pandemic,” by Sarah Thompson, wokv.com, Sept. 29, 2020.

“86% of Renters Can’t Afford to Buy a Home: Here’s How You Can Prepare,” by Charis Brown, clark.com, April 17, 2017.

“Should I Buy a House in This Crazy Real Estate Market?” by Craig Johnson, clark.com, Feb. 21, 2022.

“Clark Howard’s Special Rule for Refinancing Your Mortgage,” by Nick Cole, clark.com, Aug. 28, 2020.

“How Old Is Too Old to Take Out a Mortgage?” by Craig Johnson, clark.com, Nov. 1, 2021.

“When Is It OK to Have a Mortgage in Retirement?” by Clark Howard, clark.com, March 22, 2017.

“Should I Pay Off My Mortgage Before I Retire?” by Wes Moss, clark.com, Feb. 20, 2019.

“What Is a Reverse Mortgage and Is It Right For Me?” by clark.com staff, clark.com, June 19, 2020.

Cars

“3 Things to Know Before You Lease a Car,” by John Cress, clark.com, July 20, 2020.

“New vs. Used Cars: Which Should You Buy?” by Dallas Cox, clark.com, Jan. 24, 2022.

“New Report: These 2022 Vehicles Are the Best for the Money,” by Craig Johnson, clark.com, Jan. 21, 2022.

“Are You Following Clark’s Maximum Auto Loan Length Rule?” by clark.com staff, clark.com, April 27, 2021.

Saving Money

“Free Budget Worksheet: The Clark Method to Create a Monthly Budget,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, Feb. 18, 2021.

“How to Save and Invest the Clark Howard Way,” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, Jan. 25, 2021.

“15 Financial New Year’s Resolutions for 2022,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, Dec. 17, 2021.

“8 Spending Habits People Are Changing After Coronavirus,” by Craig Johnson, clark.com, June 19, 2020.

Investing and Retirement

“How to Start Investing and Saving for Retirement,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, May 20, 2021.

“How Retirees Can Combat Inflation,” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, Dec. 1, 2021.

“What Is an Annuity, and Why Does Clark Think They Stink?” by Christopher Smith and Clark Howard, ajc.com, May 27, 2021.

“Why Clark Howard Is Obsessed With Roth for Retirement Savings,” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, Feb. 23, 2022.

Finding an Advisor

“How to Find and Choose a Financial Advisor,” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, March 25, 2021.

“How Much Does a Financial Advisor Cost?” by Christopher Smith, clark.com, Feb. 24, 2021.

Travel

“Follow Clark Howard’s #1 Rule to Travel Cheap,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, Jan. 28, 2022.

“How to Plan a Trip: Clark’s Best Travel Tips to Save Money,” by clark.com staff, clark.com, June 10, 2021.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Lori Lucas, the president and CEO of the Employee Benefits Research Institute, or EBRI. EBRI aims to provide unbiased research and data on retirement, healthcare, and other employee benefits. Prior to joining EBRI, Lori was an executive vice president and practice leader at Callan. She has also served as director of Retirement Research at Hewitt associates, vice president at Ibbotson associates, pension fund consultant at J.H. Ellwood & Associates, and as an analyst and product development leader at Morningstar. Lori received a Bachelor of Arts from Indiana University and earned a master’s from the University of Illinois. Additionally, she is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

Background

Bio

Employee Benefits Research Institute

Retirement Confidence and Financial Wellness

EBRI’s Retirement Confidence Survey

“2021 Retirement Confidence Survey: A Closer Look at Black and Hispanic Americans,” by Craig Copeland and Lisa Greenwald, ebri.org, June 10, 2021.

EBRI 2021 Workplace Wellness Survey

“Why Do People Spend the Way They Do in Retirement? Findings From EBRI’s Spending in Retirement Survey,” by Lori Lucas, ebri.org, Jan. 14, 2021.

“These Retirees Are More Likely to Be ‘Comfortable’ or ‘Affluent,’ Study Finds,” by Kate Dore, cnbc.com, Aug. 4, 2021.

“Retirement Confidence Survey Highlights Overwhelming Participant Support for Auto Portability,” Retirement Clearinghouse, prnewswire.com, April 22, 2021.

“Racial Inequities and Retirement Income: Contributing Factors and Possible Solutions,” by Lori Lucas, lifeandretirement.aig.com, December 2021.

The Financial Alliance for Racial Equity “FARE” Coalition

“Brigitte Madrian: ‘Inertia Can Actually Be a Helpful Thing,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 22, 2020.

“Emergency-Fund-Focused-Employers: Goals, Motivations, and Challenges,” by Lori Lucas, ebri.org, Feb. 13, 2020.

“Talking About My Generation: Comparing the Financial Wellness of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and Millennials,” by Lori Lucas, ebri.org, Jan. 13, 2022.

The Retirement System

“Senators Look at Ways to Make Retirement Saving Easier,” by Susan Rupe, insurancenews.net, May 13, 2021.

“The Rising Retirement Perils of 401(k) ‘Leakage’,” by Anne Tergesen, wjs.com, April 2, 2017.

“401(k) Plan Leakage and the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018,” by Lori Lucas, lifehealth.com, Feb. 26, 2018.

“Participants Still Support Automatic Portability of 401(k)s: Survey,” by Alan Goforth, benefitspro.com, April 27, 2021.

“Andrew Biggs: Create a Thrift Savings Plan for the Masses,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 25, 2021.

Illinois Secure Choice

OregonSaves

CalSavers

Healthcare

“What Leads to Greater Satisfaction With High-Deductible Health Plan Coverage?” ebri.org, Feb. 17, 2022.

2021 Consumer Engagement in Health Care Survey

“Projected Savings Medicare Beneficiaries Need for Health Expenses Spike in 2021,” by Paul Fronstin and Jack VanDerhei, ebri.org, Jan. 20, 2022.

“Why Patients Aren’t Cost-Conscious Consumers of Health Care,” by Lori Lucas, ebri.org, Sept. 9, 2021.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Jill Schlesinger. Jill is a business analyst for CBS News and comments on the economy, investing, and personal finance for CBS television and radio programs. She also hosts the popular "Jill on Money" podcast and writes the nationally syndicated "Jill on Money" column for Tribune Media Services. Jill's first book, The Dumb Things Smart People Do With Their Money was published in 2019. She has received numerous awards over her career, including an Emmy Award for her work on CBS Sunday Morning. Jill is a certified financial planner and spent 14 years as the co-owner of and chief investment officer for an independent investment advisory firm. She began her career as a self-employed options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York following her graduation from Brown University.

Background

Bio

Jill on Money

The Dumb Things Smart People Do With Their Money: Thirteen Ways to Right Your Financial Wrongs, by Jill Schlesinger

Current Market

“Coronavirus: Emergency Reserves,” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com.

“Jill on Money: ‘New Normal’ Raises Financial Questions,” by Jill Schlesinger, mercurynews.com, Aug. 24, 2020.

“CBS News Business Analyst Jill Schlesinger Discusses Inflation and the Housing Market,” by Grace Segers, cbsnews.com, June 4, 2021.

“How to Fight Inflation,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.

“Fall Housing: From Boiling Over to Just Hot,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.

“Inflation on Hot Housing,” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com, Jan. 13, 2022.

“Real Estate Conundrum: No Houses,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.

Retirement

“How to Avoid the Retirement Freak-Out,” by Jill Schlesinger, nextave.org, Feb. 14, 2019.

“At 67, Is My 80/20 Portfolio Too Risky?” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com, Nov. 23, 2021.

“Jill on Money: Thinking About Joining the Great Resignation?” by Jill Schlesinger, mercurynews.com, Aug. 16, 2021.

“Should FINE Replace FIRE?” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.

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Our guest this week is Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, which he cofounded in 1977. He serves on GMO's Asset Allocation Committee and board of directors. Prior to GMO, Jeremy was cofounder of Batterymarch Financial Management and before that was an economist at Royal Dutch Shell. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield and his MBA from Harvard University. Jeremy is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the U.K., and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy.

Background

Bio

“10 Things You Didn’t Know About Jeremy Grantham,” by Allen Lee, moneyinc.com.

Bubbles

Three-Sigma Limits Definition

“Let the Wild Rumpus Begin,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Jan. 20, 2022.

“‘Super Bubble’: Jeremy Grantham Says Historic Crash Has Begun,” by Clayton Jarvis, financialpost.com, Jan. 25, 2022.

“Market ‘Superbubble’ Could Lead to 50% Plunge, Says Grantham,” by Lawrence Carrel, forbes.com, Jan. 26, 2022.

“GMO’s Grantham: 7 Signs We’re in a Stock Collapse (And What to Do Now),” by Janet Levaux, thinkadvisor.com, Jan. 24, 2022.

“Is the Plunge in the Nasdaq and Bitcoin the end of the ‘Superbubble’”? by John Cassidy, newyorker.com, Jan. 24, 2022.

“The U.S. Is in One of the Greatest Bubbles in Financial History,” by Merryn Somerset Webb, moneyweek.com, Sept. 3, 2021.

“Grantham Calls Meme Stocks ‘Biggest U.S. Fantasy Trip,’” Kriti Gupta and John Authers, Bloomberg.com, June 22, 2021.

“Profiting From a Bubble in Growth Stocks,” by Jeremy Grantham, Simon Harris, Ben Inker, and Catherine LeGraw, gmo.com, March 25, 2021.

“Nikkei Back Above 30,000 After More Than Three Decades,” by Hideyuki Sano, reuters.com, Feb. 14, 2021.

“Waiting for the Last Dance,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Jan. 5, 2021.

“COVID-19, Climate Change, and the Need for a New Marshall Plan,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Oct. 30, 2020.

Forecast

GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: 4Q 2021

“Why Are Stock Market Prices So High?” by Jeremy Grantham, GMO Quarterly Letter, gmo.com, 2017.

“Loose Monetary Policy Is Today’s Biggest Market Risk,” by John Plender, ft.com, April 14, 2021.

“An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Tactical Case,” by Jeremy Grantham and Lucas White, gmo.com, April 30, 2020.

Innovation, Venture Capital, and Green Investing

“Grantham Stumbles on $200m Profit After Spac Swoop on Battery Maker,” by Robin Wigglesworth and Eric Platt, ft.com, Dec. 7, 2020.

Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever, by Robin Wigglesworth.

“You Can’t Fool All the People All the Time,” by Jeremy Grantham, jpm.pm-research.com, Winter 1986.

“Green Investing May Be a Bubble, Jeremy Grantham Says, But He’s Doubling Down,” by Ben Steverman, fa-mag.com, Nov. 15, 2021.

“Where Jeremy Grantham Expects to Be ‘Kicking Ass,’” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Feb. 13, 2020.

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Our guest this week is Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo is the Charles E. & Susan T. Harris Professor, a professor of finance, and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His current research spans five areas, including evolutionary models of investor behavior and adaptive markets, systemic risk, and financial regulation, among others. Dr. Lo has published extensively in academic journals and authored a number of books including In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, which he cowrote with Stephen Foerster. He has received numerous awards for his work and contributions to modern finance research throughout his career. He holds a bachelor's in economics from Yale University and an AM and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.

Background

Bio

In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest, by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. Foerster

Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, by Andrew W. Lo

History

“Thirty Maidens of Geneva,” the Tontine Coffee-House, thetch.blog.com, Aug. 5, 2019.

“Why 18th Century Swiss Bankers Bet on the Lives of Young Girls,” by Stephen Foerster, sfoerster-5338.medium.com, Sept. 2, 2021.

John Maynard Keynes

Benjamin Graham

Harry Markowitz

Harry Markowitz

Modern Portfolio Theory

What Is a Gunslinger?

William F. Sharpe

William F. Sharpe

What Is the Sharpe Ratio?

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

“Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis,” by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, and Justin Foo, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 26, 2013.

Eugene F. Fama

Eugene Fama

What Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

“Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior,” by Andrew Lo and Alexander Remorov, eqderivatives.com, 2021.

“In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Eugene Fama,” Interview with Andrew Lo and Eugene Fama, youtube.com, Dec. 15, 2016.

“Why Artificial Intelligence May Not Be as Useful or as Challenging as Artificial Stupidity,” by Andrew Lo, hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu, July 1, 2019.

John C. Bogle

John Bogle

Cost Matters Hypothesis

Charles D. Ellis

Charley Ellis

Greenwich Associates

“Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser’s Game,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.

Other

“7 Principles to Help You Create Your Perfect Portfolio,” by Robert Powell, marketwatch.com, Nov. 10, 2021.

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Our guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Before joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, Michael was director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management and prior to that held research leadership roles at Credit Suisse and Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael is the author of three books including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also coauthor with Alfred Rappaport of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. He has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing. Michael is also chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute. He received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University.

Background

Bio

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, by Michael Mauboussin

Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport

More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, by Michael Mauboussin

Consilience

Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge, by Edward O. Wilson

“Charlie Munger’s System of Mental Models: How to Think Your Way to Success,” by Andrew McVagh, mymentalmodels.info.com, Aug. 7, 2018.

“Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,” by W. Brian Arthur, harvardbusinessreview.com, July-August 1996.

Santa Fe Institute

“Why Foxes Make Better Decisions Than Hedgehogs,” by Kevin Sookocheff, sookocheff.com, July 15, 2021.

Jonathan Baron, Professor, University of Pennsylvania

Active Fund Success

“Turn and Face the Strange: Overcoming Barriers to Change in Sports and Investing,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Sept. 8, 2021.

“Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, April 14, 2020.

Fundamental Law of Active Management

“The ‘Paradox of Skill’ Adds to Active Management Woes,” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Sept. 17, 2020.

Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville: A Lifelong Passion for Baseball, by Stephen Jay Gould

“Looking for Easy Games in Bonds,” by Michael Mauboussin, bluemountaincapital.com, April 16, 2019.

“Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence From Taiwan,” by Brad Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, May 2004.

Expectations Investing

Creating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors, by Alfred Rappaport

“Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, April 14, 2021.

Security Analysis course taught by Michael Mauboussin at Columbia Business School

“The Math of Value and Growth: Growth, Return on Capital, and the Discount Rate,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, June 9, 2020.

“Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Aug. 4, 2020.

“How the Parting of Two Market Forces Helped Spur the Equity Rally,” by Michael Mauboussin, ft.com, Feb. 8, 2021.

Business Quality and Capital Allocation

“Thoughts on Cost of Capital and Buffet’s $1 Test--Part 1,” by John Huber, sabercapitalmgt.com, Oct. 30, 2017.

“Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)--Michael Mauboussin on Investment Concepts,” anthenarium.com.

“Michael Mauboussin on Capital Allocation and Value Creation,” anthenarium.com, Nov. 29, 2019.

“Chancellor: Tech Growth Comes at Irrational Price,” by Edward Chancellor, reuters.com, Sept. 9, 2021.

“Categorizing for Clarity: Cash Flow Statement Adjustments to Improve Insight,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Oct. 6, 2021.

Other and Recommended Reading

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance, Stern School of Business

The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan Housel

The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert Hagstrom

Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, by Robert Hagstrom

Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Inventors Win in Markets and Life, by William Green

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Our guest on the podcast today is Paula Pant, host of the popular Afford Anything podcast. She is also the founder of affordanything.com, a personal finance website. Paula is a frequent public speaker and is a leading voice in the “Financial Independence, Retire Early” movement, better known as FIRE. She is a graduate of the Honors Program at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Background

Bio

Afford Anything

Afford Anything podcast

FIRE

“Why the FIRE Movement Is Misunderstood,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Oct. 17, 2018.

The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy, by Thomas Stanley and William Danko

“Tanja Hester: The Pandemic Will Stoke Interest in Early Retirement,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 3, 2020.

“The Great Resignation: Why More Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs Than Ever Before,” by Bill Whitaker, cbsnews.com, Jan. 9, 2022.

“Ask Paula: FIRE Vs. FOMO—How Do You Balance Between These?” Afford Anything podcast, affordanything.com, Jan. 11, 2022.

“The FIRE Take on Wall St. Bets, GameStop, and Meme Stonks,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Jan. 29, 2021.

Mindful Spending

“Your Money Should Make Buckets of Excess Money,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Feb. 25, 2011.

“Ramit Sethi: How Can Couples Make Peace Over Money?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Nov. 30, 2021.

Advice and Investing

“Income Producing Properties With Paula Pant of Afford Anything,” Martinis and Your Money podcast, martinisandyourmoney.com, Sept. 10, 2021.

“Ask Paula: How to Make Smarter Real Estate Decisions,” Afford Anything podcast, affordanything.com, Oct. 4, 2021.

“Why Index Funds Are a Good Investment--With Paula Pant,” Marriage, Kids, and Money podcast, marriagekidsandmoney.com, Oct. 5, 2020.

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Our guest today is Cullen Roche. Cullen is the founder and chief investment officer of the Discipline Funds. In addition, Cullen heads up Orcam Group, a registered investment advisory firm he established in 2012. Cullen also authors the popular blog "Pragmatic Capitalism," where he writes about a range of macroeconomic and investing topics. He is active on social media, including Twitter, where you can find him at @cullenroche. Cullen started his career as an advisor at Merrill Lynch and did a stint at an event-driven hedge fund before starting his RIA firm. He received his bachelor's degree in finance from Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business..

Background

Bio

Pragmatic Capitalism Blog

Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance, by Cullen Roche

Macroeconomics and Financial Planning/Advice

“Three Things I Think I Think—Macro Thoughts,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Aug. 3, 2021.

The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan Housel

“The Most Important Investment Factor—Behavior,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, April 6, 2018.

“What Is the Value of Financial Advice?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 18, 2019.

“Understanding Quantitative Easing,” by Cullen Roche, papers.ssrn.com, Feb. 10, 2014.

“2 Reasons the Surging Deficit Worries Me,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 26, 2018.

Economic Cycle and Fiscal Picture

@jasonzweigwsj

“Three Things I Think I Think: Cycles, Hunting Biden and Life,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 15, 2020.

“Three Things I Think I Think: Housing Bubble 2.0, Passive Investing and Hyperinflation,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, April 8, 2021.

“Should House Prices Be in the CPI?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Aug. 24, 2021.

“Understanding Government Liabilities,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, March 28, 2021.

Inflation and Interest Rates

“Let’s Talk About Inflation,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, May 12, 2021.

“Is Hyperinflation Coming?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 25, 2021.

“Three Things I Think I Think—Myths That Never Die,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 5, 2021.

“Government Bond Markets Aren’t ‘Free’ Markets,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 8, 2020.

“What if It’s all Going to Zero?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Nov. 9, 2021.

“Why Stocks and Bonds Are the Core of any Portfolio,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, March 16, 2021.

Discipline Fund ETF

“Introducing the Discipline Fund ETF,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 21, 2021.

“John Bogle: How to Create Perfect Asset Allocation,” video interview, youtube.com, June 24, 2018.

Discipline Fund ETF Overview

Wesley Gray

“What Is Discipline-Based Investing?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Jan. 1, 2019.

Target-Date Funds

“The Zoom Climb Glide Path & Why the Age in Bonds Rule Is Wrong,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 30, 2021.

“The Portfolio Size Effect and Using a Bond Tent to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Oct. 5, 2016.

“Three Things I Think I Think—Dangerous & Terrible Stuff,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 29, 2021.

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On this week’s episode, we’ll feature some of our favorite clips from interviews we’ve done with investment managers, writers, and thinkers over the past year.

Here are the complete episodes that are referenced in this week’s episode.

“David Giroux: What Are the Market Inefficiencies We Can Exploit?” The Long View podcast, Feb. 2, 2021. 

“Hamish Douglass: On the Hunt for Super-Compounding Stocks,” The Long View podcast, Feb. 23, 2021. 

“John Rogers, Jr.: ‘Be Willing to Talk about These Uncomfortable Issues’,” The Long View podcast, Apr. 6, 2021. 

“William Bernstein: ‘We’re Starting to See All of the Signs of a Bubble’,” The Long View podcast, Mar. 9, 2021. 

“Jason Hsu: China Is ‘the Last Great Remaining Alpha Reservoir’,” The Long View podcast, Apr. 20, 2021. 

“Jason Zweig: Temperament Is Everything for Most Investors,” The Long View podcast, June 29, 2021. 

“David Herro: ‘We Are Not at All Afraid to Vary from an Index’,” The Long View podcast, July 13, 2021. 

“Robin Wigglesworth: The Rise of Indexing and the ‘Renegades’ Who Ushered It In,” The Long View podcast, Nov. 16, 2021. 

“Bob Seawright: There Is No Such Thing As a Passive Investor,” The Long View podcast, Nov. 2, 2021. 

“Meb Faber: ‘To Be a Good Investor, You Have to Be a Good Loser',” The Long View podcast, Sept. 7, 2021. 

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On this week’s episode, we’ll feature some of our favorite clips from interviews we’ve done with financial planners, advisors, and retirement researchers over the past year.

Here are the complete episodes that are referenced in this week’s episode.

"Daniel Crosby: ‘If You’re Excited About It, It’s Probably a Bad Idea,' " The Long View podcast, Aug. 31, 2021.

"Manisha Thakor: Beware of ‘Junk Personal Finance,' " The Long View podcast, July 20, 2021.

"Daniel Egan: Noisy Successes and Silent Failures,” The Long View podcast, Dec. 7, 2021.

"Lynnette Khalfani-Cox: ‘There’s a Huge Wealth Gap in America,’ ” The Long View podcast, Sept. 28, 2021.

"Sarah Newcomb: ‘I Love Rules of Thumb,’ ” The Long View podcast, Aug. 10, 2021.

"Hal Hershfield: People Treat Their Future Self As If It’s Another Person,” The Long View podcast, Sept. 21, 2021.

“Ramit Sethi: How Can Couples Make Peace Over Money?” The Long View podcast, Nov. 30, 2021.

“Fritz Gilbert: Early Retirement Made Simple,” The Long View podcast, Oct. 26, 2021.

“Mike Piper: Delaying Social Security Not Always a Great Deal,” The Long View podcast, April 27, 2021.

“Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates,” The Long View podcast, Dec. 14, 2021.

“Teresa Ghilarducci: To Fix Retirement, Expand Social Security,” The Long View podcast, May 18, 2021.

“Andrew Biggs: Create a Thrift Savings Plan for the Masses,” The Long View podcast, May 25, 2021.

“Meg Bartelt: ‘More Money Does Not Make You Happier,’ ” The Long View podcast, March 2, 2021.

“Laura Carstensen: ‘I’m Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,’ ” The Long View podcast, Sept. 14, 2021.

“Carl Richards: It Should Be OK to Relax Out Loud,” The Long View podcast, July 27, 2021.

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This is Dan’s second appearance on The Long View, his first taking place back in May 2019, when Christine Benz and I interviewed him for the podcast. Dan is Pimco’s group chief investment officer, a managing director, and a member of the firm’s executive committee and investment committee. He is also lead portfolio manager for the firm’s Income, Credit Hedge Fund, and Mortgage Opportunistic strategies, and a portfolio manager for Total Return strategies. Morningstar named Dan Fixed-Income Manager of the Year for 2013. Dan earned his bachelor’s degree in economics from Occidental College and his MBA in analytic finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. We conducted this interview at Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California.

Background

Bio

Pimco Income Institutional Fund

Pimco Credit Opportunities Bond Institutional Fund

Pimco Mortgage Opportunities and Bond Institutional Fund

“Dan Ivascyn: Building a Portfolio to Bend but not Break,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 11, 2019.

Secular Outlook

“The Aftershock Economy,” by Dan Ivascyn, Andrew Balls, and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, June 6, 2023.

“Income Fund Update: Capitalizing on the Global Opportunities in Fixed Income,” by Dan Ivascyn and Esteban Burbano, pimco.com, May 13, 2024.

“What to Expect When You’re Expecting Rate Cuts,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kimberley Stafford, pimco.com, April 25, 2024.

“Pimco’s Ivascyn Warns of ‘Too Much Enthusiasm’ on 2024 Rate Cuts,” by Michael Mackenzie, Bloomberg.com, Nov. 15, 2023.

“Income Fund Update: Compelling Yields Today, Potential Price Appreciation Tomorrow,” by Dan Ivascyn and Esteban Burbano, pimco.com, Feb. 20, 2024.

“Capitalizing on Market Shifts in 2024,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kenneth Chambers, pimco.com, January 2024.

“Bonds Look Attractive Compared With Cash, Equities,” by Dan Ivascyn, pimco.com, February 2024.

“Yield Matters: A Fresh Look at Core Bonds,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn, Mohit Mittal, and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, May 2024.

“What Higher-for-Longer Rates Mean for Investors,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kimberley Stafford, pimco.com, February 2024.

“Opportunity in Focus: Private Credit,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Kenneth Chambers, pimco.com, January 2024.

“Navigating Uncertainty With Alternative Investments,” video interview with Dan Ivascyn and Richard Clarida, pimco.com, December 2023.

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On this week's special episode, we'll be chatting about a recent study on retirement withdrawal rates that Christine and I authored with our colleague John Rekenthaler, who joins us for this conversation.

As listeners probably know, this is an especially challenging time for retirees trying to figure out how much they can safely withdraw in retirement given lofty stock valuations, paltry bond yields, and uncertain inflation. With that in mind, the study assessed potential retirement withdrawal rates, projecting what spending rate would be successful over an assumed 30-year retirement horizon after taking the market outlook into consideration. In this episode, I'll be asking Christine and John about the study and key takeaways, including the finding that withdrawal rates will likely have to be lower going forward than they've been in the past. For reference, you can find a link to the study in the show notes to this episode.

Morningstar Retirement Research

“What’s a Safe Retirement Spending Rate for the Decades Ahead?” by Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Nov. 11, 2021.

“The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, and John Rekenthaler.

Other Retirement Research Referenced

“Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” by William P. Bengen, Journal of Financial Planning, October 1994.

“Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates,” by Jonathan Guyton and William Klinger, Journal of Financial Planning, March 1, 2006.

“Asset Valuations and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates,” by David Blanchett, Michael S. Finke, and Wade D. Pfau, July 2013.

“Exploring the Retirement Consumption Puzzle,” by David Blanchett, Journal of Financial Planning, May 2014.

“Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2021 Edition,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Jan. 20, 2021.

“Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 14, 2021.

“Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 29, 2020.

“Michael Finke: Here’s What Makes Retirees Happy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 2, 2019.

“Jonathan Guyton: What the Crisis Means for Retirement Planning,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 17, 2020.

“David Blanchett: If You’re Retiring Now, You’re in a Pretty Rough Spot,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 18, 2019.

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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Our guest on the podcast today is William Bengen. Bill has been a prolific researcher of retirement planning matters over his career, and he pioneered the exploration of safe withdrawal rates with his groundbreaking 1994 research that gave birth to what's now called the 4% rule. Bill is the former owner of Bengen Financial Services, an independent Registered Investment Advisor that he launched in 1989, after his family sold the soda-bottling business that he had helped manage. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in aeronautics and astronautics from MIT. Bill retired from his financial planning practice in 2013 but continues to conduct research on retirement planning and withdrawal rates. We're excited to have him here today.

Background

Bio

In-Retirement Withdrawal Rates and Asset Allocation

“The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. He Says It Now Could Be Up to 4.5%,” by Neal Templin, barrons.com, Jan. 23, 2021.

“The Planner’s Toolkit for Managing Retirement Withdrawal Plans,” by William Bengen, financialplanningassociation.org, April 2021.

“Resolving the Paradox--Is the Safe Withdrawal Rate Sometimes Too Safe?” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, May 2008.

“Bill Bengen Revisits the 4% Rule Using Schiller’s CAPE Ratio, Michael Kitces’s Research,” by Bill Bengen, fa-mag.com, Dec. 17, 2020.

“Can We Raise Our Safe Withdrawal Rate When Inflation Is Low?” earlyretirementnow.com, Oct. 26, 2020.

“Economic Outlook: Still Rising,” by Preston Caldwell, Morningstar.com, Oct. 3, 2021.

“Jonathon Guyton: What the Crisis Means for Retirement Planning,” The Long View Podcast, Morningstar.com, June 17, 2020.

“Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” by William Bengen, retailinvestor.org.

“The Rules of Retirement Spending Are Changing,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, Nov. 26, 2021.

“Choosing the Highest Safe Withdrawal Rate at Retirement,” by William Bengen, fa-mag.com, Oct. 1, 2020.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Dan Egan. Egan is the director of behavioral finance and investing at Betterment, and he has researched behavioral finance topics extensively over his career. Prior to joining Betterment, he was a behavioral finance specialist for Barclays Wealth. He received his bachelor's degree in economics from Boston University and his Master of Science degree in decision science from the London School of Economics.

Bio

Research

"Closing the Behavior Gap," Betterment.com, Dec. 11, 2018.

"'Most People Don’t Want to Be Called Average,' Says Betterment's Dan Egan, Who Designs Financial Tools for Them Anyway," by Andrea Riquier, MarketWatch, June 16, 2020.

"How Checking Performance Might Hurt Your Performance," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, May 20, 2019.

"The Myth of the Panicky Individual Investor," by Dan Egan, dpegan.com, March 14, 2020.

"Memestonks: What's Different About This Market," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, Jan. 29, 2021.

"5 Red Flags to Look out for in Your Favorite Investing App," by Liz Knueven, Insider, Feb. 17, 2021.

"Low Cost Is Better Than Free," by Dan Egan, dpegan.com, March 23, 2021.

"Are Commission-Free Investing Apps Encouraging Reckless Behavior?" by Robert Farrington, Forbes, Dec. 3, 2019.

"Using Investment Goals at Betterment," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, July 27, 2021.

"How Much to Save: Our Advice Guides You Toward Your Goals," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, Jan. 24, 2019.

“Betterment's 401(k) Investment Approach," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, Feb. 2, 2021.

"Q&A: What's the Future of Investing?" Betterment.com, Feb. 17, 2021.

"When It Comes to ESG, Investors Want Specifics—and They Should," by Elizabeth Thompson, Spark Network, Feb. 4, 2021.

"'Robo' Advisers Betterment, Wealthfront Get in on Socially Responsible Investing," by Anne Tergesen, The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2017.

"Lifestyle Creep: The Biggest Threat to Financial Planning," by Dan Egan, Betterment.com, Feb. 28, 2019.

"Tiny Changes Can Help You Achieve Savings Goals for Retirement," by Anne Tergesen, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 28, 2020.

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