Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps:

01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks

03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges

05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts

07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes

09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing

14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility

17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power

22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications

25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints

31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options

35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies

42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility

45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system

48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications

50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis

52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment

54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal

57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

00:00 Intro and welcome Jim

01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction

04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact

06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment

09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics

11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions

14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario

17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact

19:59 Stock market return expectations

22:25 Bond market competition with stocks

23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion

26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities

31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome

33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases

37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world

40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod

Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/

0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson

1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy

4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing

8:54 What is gold signaling?

14:22 Global demand for gold

17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained

24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system

30:22 Market outlook

37:42 Are markets in a bubble?

41:51 Gold price outlook

45:35 2024 election impact on markets

49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks

56:17 The global system as one big carry trade

59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets.

Links:

Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

“China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show 

1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view 

2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit 

3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption 

4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’ 

8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China 

10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market 

11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out 

15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5 

20:25 Implications of higher rates 

24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down

26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment 

37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target? 

42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster? 

43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance 

49:00 Biden 

53:58 Leadership 

56:00 Message for Millennials 

1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties 

1:04:22 Parting thoughts 

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.

In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.

When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.

As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.  
Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process.

Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.

0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show 

0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research 

2:23 Macro view today

4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down 

6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy 

8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy

11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year 

14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?

16:06 Higher for longer 

18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months

20:00 Consumer 

22:25 Markets 

25:08 Bond market 

32:00 Stock market 

36:40 Opportunities in the market 

39:15 Traditional 60/40 

41:30 Parting thoughts 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees just under $6 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 104 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion. 

In this episode, Zook shares that he still sees stagflation ahead. In this environment, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets, particularly in energy and real estate.

Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber.

0:00 Welcome Christopher Zook to the show

1:07 Macro view today 

2:50 The Fed likely to maintain credibility 

4:08 Inflation and stagflation 

5:40 Stagflation impact on stocks and bonds 

8:30 Entering into a lost decade 

11:44 Passive investing v. Active investing 

16:20 Dichotomy in the market 

19:00 Fiscal picture in the US

22:19 Betting against subprime 

22:53 Concern about the consumers’ spending habits

25:27 Investment opportunities 

28:52 Commercial real estate 

34:27 Energy

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential. 

Links: 

Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X?

Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins

Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/

RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/

A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins 

1:16 Macro view 

2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt

5:00 Housing market at a stalemate 

6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling” 

8:50 Valuations 

10:45 Purpose of raising rates 

13:12 Only way out is a reckoning 

13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing? 

15:45 Bullish long-term 

17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime 

20:12 Burn The Boats book 

25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back 

31:09 Career 

35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are 

38:30 Opening up

41:30 Most important skills of a founder 

42:45 Rex Ryan 

46:15 Best part of the book

48:40 Parting thoughts 

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more.

https://www.dayoneventures.com/

0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show

1:08 Venture capital landscape today

2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage

4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom

7:45 Robotics

9:25 Correction for generative AI companies?

11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos

14:00 Valuations

19:00 Investment activity

20:50 Vetting companies

26:48 Public relations to venture capital

31:35 When to get a PR agency?

36:12 Changing media landscape

40:00 Exits

45:35 Meeting founders through social

48:40 Starting a VC fund

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.

0:00 Welcome Larry to the show

1:00 Macro picture 

2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising

3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation 

5:32 Stagflation 

9:20 One-year breakevens 

10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI

14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market 

18:40 Indexing creating a bubble 

23:15 Regional bank risks 

27:25 Buy into capitulation selling 

29:17 Economic picture today 

34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade

37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now) 

39:34 Zombies 

42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value

47:00 Shift to stagflation

50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (@BillAckman), CEO of Pershing Square Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 100 for an exclusive and wide-ranging conversation. In this episode, Ackman revisits the various eras of his investing career, from his first stock purchase as a Harvard Business School student to his bet against MBIA and his activist stake in Wendy’s. He also discusses his transition to a “quieter” phase of activist investing and his foray into tech investing with the recent addition of Google's parent company, Alphabet. Along the way, Ackman shares lessons and insights on a range of topics, including raising capital in the face of rejection, learning from mistakes, and the importance of optimism and free speech. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook, shares his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, discusses the recent regional banking crisis, and more.

0:00 Welcome Bill Ackman to the show 

0:25 A ‘self study’ in investing 

1:30 The first stock Ackman purchased 

4:00 Raising capital like ‘blind dating’ 

5:45 Willingness to go against ‘the system’ 

8:30 Origins of Ackman’s persistence 

9:20 Incentives drive human behavior

11:30 Learning from mistakes/failure 

12:50 Optimism 

15:05 Why Ackman/Pershing Square survived the challenging years  

17:50 Codifying the eight principles in stone 

19:30 Three eras of Pershing Square

26:30 Rise of passive/indexing

31:10 Twitter/ free speech 

34:10 Macro assessment 

35:30 Longer-term risks to the economy 

37:45 2024 election 

39:40 Would Ackman ever run for office? 

41:10 Regional banks 

43:00 Buying Google/ impact of AI 

48:06 $600 million to philanthropy 

50:30 Parenting 

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession.

Links:

https://www.axoniccap.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/

0:00 Intro

0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp

2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession

4:19 American consumer

5:31 Equity markets

8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing

15:43 Vulnerabilities

18:08 Zombie companies

22:37 Fed outlook

26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation

27:50 Long and variable lags question

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 98, featuring a discussion on the macro environment. Rule, who has 50 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He's long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic. 0:00 Intro 0:59 Macro picture 2:30 Arithmetic of the deterioration in purchasing power 4:10 Rich Men North of Richmond 5:20 Rule’s savings losing purchasing power at about 7% compounded 7:00 Severe but survivable 10:45 What is the fair value of gold? 12:50 No one size fits all for how to own gold 15:20 Arithmetic around long bonds is lousy 19:40 Underlying economy has been amazingly strong 22:47 A richer world is good for everyone 23:40 Future for younger generations

Legendary trader Peter Borish, president of the Computer Trading Corporation, joins Julia La Roche on episode 97. In this episode, Peter shares his macro outlook, and why we’re in the early stages of a longer term rising rate cycle. He also revisits his time working with Paul Tudor Jones at Tudor Investment Corp, the 1987 stock market crash and its aftermath, and some of the lessons and principles he’s learned over the years. 

Links: 

https://twitter.com/pborish

https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-borish-bb54119/

00:00 Intro

0:43 Macro view 

2:30 This really isn’t the 70s 

4:55 More like post WWII 

7:14 Tax rate

8:42 Debt

11:38 Implications of higher rates

13:50 We’ll see wages go up more

14:53 S&P likely to move down from here 

16:10 Difference between cautious/bearish 

17:15 Concern is making policy mistakes 

18:30 More on the markets 

21:03 Risk management 

23:10 Learning from mistakes 

25:00 You have to trade your own personality 

27:30 Advice for young people 

29:50 1987 Crash 

35:00 Robin Hood Foundation

38:00 Assessment of New York City today 

40:30 Return to office 

42:00 Brady Commission 

44:40 Paul Tudor Jones 

48:30 Parting thoughts 

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Chapters

00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not?

02:24 Labor market

03:44 Home prices

07:53 Recession  

10:40 Rate policy

12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation

14:00 Liquidity explained

17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out

21:30 Intervention

23:05 Fed

24:50 Deficit

28:40 Election

32:36 Parting thoughts

Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 96 to discuss what's happening in the bond market. Howell recently shared a piece on his Substack, "It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous." Read the piece here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-bonds-not-banks-that-look-dangerous Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro 1:02 Macro view today 2:26 Why is the bond market so important 6:40 Pressures in the bond market 10:15 Term premia 14:43 BRIC economies’ gold-backed currency 16:16 Who is going to want to buy the Treasuries? 19:00 Bond market is distorted 22:50 US dollar 27:30 Liquidity

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 95 to discuss her newest bestseller, "You Will Own Nothing." 

Links: 

You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/

Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth

0:00 Intro 

1:00 World War F 

4:19 Writing for the underdog 

7:50 Social credit 

13:50 Useful idiots 

19:45 Cancel culture 

21:55 ESG 

27:00 Elon Musk 

29:50 Housing 

35:20 More institutions buying homes 

39:30 Macro picture 

44:40 What can the individual do to reclaim the ‘American Dream’? 

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 94 to break down markets and the opportunities he sees in this current environment.

Todd has been a CNBC contributor since 2010 and continues to provide actionable, insightful, and light-hearted commentary for CNBC.  He is known for blending technical and fundamental analysis to interpret the ever-changing market landscape to produce specific trading and investment ideas for CNBC viewers and his clients. Currently, he is one of the only CNBC contributors who manages his actual investment account live with full transparency on the ‘TradingNation’ web show.  He has appeared on various shows such as CNBC Fast Money Halftime show, Fast Money, Squawk Box, Power Lunch, Squawk Alley, Squawk on the Street, Money in Motion, and the CNBC Stock Draft.

He started his career as a professional proprietary trader of NYSE listed stocks in San Diego, California in 2001, then moved to Connors Capital, A CTA and hedge fund in 2004, and then back east on Wall St with Forex.com / Gain Capital.  In that dual role, Todd wrote the widely followed Strategy of the Day research report, while trading for the parent company’s hedge fund GAIN capital during the 2008 financial crisis. Todd successfully guided his readers through that wild market time building enough of a following to launch his own research business TradingAnalysis.com in 2010.

Since 2010, TradingAnalysis has grown to serve clients in over 100 countries as Todd and his team guide their clients through the markets by trading their actual live portfolios showing the good, bad, and the ugly. He is gearing up to launch his own wealth management business in 2021.

Todd attended St Lawrence University while majoring in economics and competing on their Division I alpine ski racing team. He transferred out to focus on business at University at Albany, earning a Bachelors of Economics, where he continued his ski racing career.

Follow Todd on Twitter @toddgordonTA

0:00 Intro

1:16 Macro setup today

2:25 New age of investing

4:30 Soundbites and hot takes

6:00 Bullish?

8:18 Interpretation of the yield curve

12:35 Disinflationary environments and stocks

15:07 Tech boom

20:00 Rally is broader than you think

23:07 Relationship between US yields and value/growth rotation

27:23 Stocks in a rising rate environment

31:07 What have the bears gotten wrong?

33:54 Elliott Wave, explained

38:05 Dow to double in the next five years?

41:00 Made a mistake from being too bearish?

42:30 Parting thoughts

46:35 Active v. passive

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93. 

Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society.

A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement.

Links: 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration

The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734

0:00 Intro

1:21 Generational Theory 

5:00 Generations arrive in patterns 

8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime

11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997 

13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts 

15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic 

16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning 

20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy 

21:18 Generational archetypes 

27:43 Millennials as the “Hero” 

33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s 

39:00 An internal or external conflict? 

44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning 

49:00 Relationships 

50:28 What keeps Neil up at night? 

53:00 Optimistic about the future 

Milton Berg, CFA, the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors (https://miltonberg.com), joins Julia La Roche on episode 92 for a deep dive into his technical analysis and macro.

Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. In this episode, Berg shared reasons for why he sees strong evidence that this market won't do well and the bull market may be ending and heading toward a significant correction.

0:00 Intro

0:37 Long-term big picture

6:27 Short-term big picture

8:54 Turning points in the market 

11:00 No evidence of momentum. It’s an emotional feeling

21:30 Accelerations

27:02 Bank stocks and the bear market 

35:40 Why he’s short right now 

37:38 Gap down and gap up, explained 

47:00 Price target for the S&P 500

50:00 Worried about dissing capitalism 

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.

Links: 

The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/

Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/

0:00 Intro / Background

2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making

3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong

4:30 The role of confidence 

6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework 

10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level 

13:00 Executives discussing AI 

14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant 

15:35 The K-shaped recovery 

17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower 

18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences 

20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today 

24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election 

28:00 Gen Z’s confidence? 

31:00 Millennials’ sentiment 

33:00 Real life moves us around 

35:00 Music and the mood 

38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon 

39:30 Peak confidence? 

40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven 

41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat” 

44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme

47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood” 

50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands” 

53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession 

55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 90 to share his macro outlook, his views on the U.S. dollar, and his latest venture — Market Reader — a startup providing real-time explanations of market movement for investors and advisors.

Links

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jnordvig

Substack: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/

Market Reader: https://marketreader.com/

Exante Data: https://www.exantedata.com/

0:00 Intro

0:55 Macro picture

1:57 A turning point in inflation

4:10 Evidence of an inflection point

7:35 Market

8:30 Don’t see evidence of a dramatic tip in the economy

10:00 Housing not crashing

12:40 A brief history of dollar hatred

19:00 Impact of weakening dollar on investments

20:25 Artificial Intelligence and building Market Reader

24:33 Started Market Reader pre ChatGPT

26:55 AI and the macro outlook

28:48 Two trends that are worrisome

31:40 Will Fed policy have to consider AI?

33:43 No cuts any time soon

35:13 Positives of AI for a researcher

37:50 Impact of AI on certain finance jobs

42:00 Founding a startup

45:00 Market Reader examples

48:49 How Market Reader has helped Jens' productivity

51:20 Study

52:52 Parting thoughts

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@BiancoResearch), the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche again for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment.

In this episode, Bianco shares why he thinks we've seen a bottoming in inflation and that it will start to creep back up. He also explained why he doesn't see the Fed pivoting because the inflation rate is likely to be problematic. Elsewhere, Bianco explains why he's not necessarily in the recession camp.

0:00 Intro 

1:00 Macro view 

4:20 That’s not “TINA” 

6:35 Unusual market performance this year 

10:29 Thoughts on passive investing

14:00 On AI: Overhype the short-term, underestimate the long-term 

18:00 Impact of AI on finance

25:05 Might not be in the recession camp 

29:40 Did something already break? 

32:34 Sticky inflation 

36:00 Labor market is very different from what anyone thinks it is right now 

43:00 Impact on cities, commercial real estate, public transportation 

51:33 Regional bank risk 

55:15 Energy 

1:01:00 Parting thoughts 

Dr. Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 88 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle and the global phenomenon of zombie companies.

Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work.

Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967.

He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management.

Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis.

Links: 

Where We Are In The Credit Cycle: https://creditorcoalition.org/special-feature-professor-ed-altman-on-where-we-are-in-the-credit-cycle/

Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/

Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/

NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman

0:00 Intro 

0:49 Where are we in the credit cycle? 

2:43 5 indicators (Default Rates; Recovery Rates, Required Rates of Return; Distressed Ratio; and Liquidity) 

10:00 Is the market underestimating the near-term risk of defaults?

15:50 We’ve reached an inflection point 

18:00 Historical default rates, benign credit cycles, and recession periods in the US

22:00 Warning of a great credit bubble in 2007 

25:15 Why have defaults been so low? 

28:20 Scenario of 10% default rates in credit markets?

33:30 Zombies and the Z-Score

39:40 Zombieism globally has increased from 1.5% to about 7% 

44:00 Implications of keeping zombie companies alive 

48:30 Why does the US have so many zombie companies? 

50:00 Triple Cs risk of default 

53:48 Bankruptcy v. Bailout

1:01:00 Bankruptcy reforms and impact on zombies 

1:04:25 Zombies only increased slightly during Covid 

1:06:30 What are people asking Dr. Altman on his lecture tour? 

1:08:36 Starting a fintech called Wiser Funding 

1:12:08 Parting thoughts 

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture.

Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.

0:00 Intro

1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy 

2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession 

4:33 The magnificent seven 

6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months 

7:10 Inflation 

9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing 

10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now 

12:30 Opportunities, energy sector 

15:30 Thoughts on AI  

17:50 Themes 

18:40 The end of globalization 

22:11 Labor market 

24:17 Hard or soft landing 

26:00 Regional banks 

27:48 Energy sector

32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities) 

37:24 TINA 

40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100

42:00 Career in financial markets 

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.  

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer

1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence

5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates

7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens

11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try

15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy

19:00 Five pillars of prosperity

24:17 Tariffs

28:30 Trade and geopolitics

33:30 Trade is not a political weapon

42:50 Government spending

50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events

53:55 A Harris presidency

57:20 Parting thoughts

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche again for an unfiltered conversation on macro, markets, Bitcoin, the Fed, and more. 

Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.

These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called "Acid Capitalist" and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack.

0:00 Intro

1:18 Macro picture, ‘my imagination is as dark as it was in 2007’

5:00 “I’m fearful”, already in recession as we speak 

8:18 Want to own equities right now 

12:30 Bitcoin 

15:00 Sitting with cash, waiting to buy 

17:58 Been in a depression since 2008 

22:30 Banking sector 

27:30 Eurodollar system 

32:00 Entrepreneurial dream has been replaced 

34:50 Inflation Reduction Act is actually smart 

38:00 A recession of a similar magnitude to 2008-2009 

42:47 The five who know 

45:30 Music and charts 

47:30 Twitter

49:23 Parting thoughts 

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, geopolitics, and the rising threat of China. 

0:00 Intro 

0:35 ‘Out of body experience’ meeting with former central bankers, academics

3:30 Fed is ‘completely out of touch with reality’ 

5:30 This has nothing to do with the Phillips Curve 

6:58 Chain-weighting inflation 

9:57 Frictions in society 

12:15 Heading toward a recession 

14:15 Commercial real estate 

19:22 Yellen’s trip to China

26:00 Wall Street greed 

21:03 Is the business community waking up? 

26:20 Exposure to China

28:00 Risk of invading Taiwan 

30:00 Talk about what Xi Jinping says 

34:00 Should be ringing alarm bells about China 

38:00 Need peace through strength 

41:00 Economic War Department is needed

44:00 We sit at a hinge in history right now 

Michael Green (@profplum99), Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 84 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market.

In this episode, Mike Green breaks down some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they lead to the current market phenomena.

Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.

Follow Mike on Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99

Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/

0:18 When are we going to see a recession? 

1:06 In the recession camp 

2:40 Labor is bifurcated 

4:55 Student loan debt 

8:00 Implications of AI 

13:55 Markets and the implications of passive investment strategies 

18:10 Creating an asset bubble 

21:57 What happens when the selling starts? 

24:00 Driving a car uphill with no brakes 

28:20 Growth of passive 

33:58 Inelasticity of the markets 

36:20 The Fed 

42:22 Operating off fantastically outdated theories 

45:00 Downside of these strategies 

49:30 Narratives in the markets 

54:00 Parting thoughts

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb), the author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile," joins episode 83 of The Julia La Roche show alongside veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott), author of “Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions In the New Age of Crisis.” 

“Chaos Kings,” which features Taleb, recounts the story of Universa Investments, a Miami-based investment firm specializing in risk mitigation, deploying a tail-risk hedging strategy to limit losses from an outsized market event, like a Black Swan. Taleb is the Distinguished Scientific Advisor at Universa.

Led by Mark Spitznagel, Universa is among the best-performing investment managers of the last 15 years, reaping massive gains from market crashes. During the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Universa delivered a stunning 4,000% return during the first quarter when markets sharply sold off. The firm has posted a 15-year average annual return on capital north of 100%.

0:00 Show open

1:00 Chaos Kings story 

6:40 A problem with infrequent but large losses  

9:45 Precautionary Principle 

12:29 Tail risk hedging 

15:30 Flaws of modern finance 

17:17 Mark Spitznagel learning to “love to lose” 

19:00 Fragilities, hidden risks, big picture macro environment 

23:43 Addressing misconceptions around Black Swans 

25:30 Optionality 

30:16 Experience and execution of the strategy 

31:49 Black Swans v. Dragon Kings 

34:30 Predicting an event is one thing; benefitting is another thing

36:00 Sornette’s Dragon Kings 

38:50 Universa’s 4,000% gain 

41:45 Getting to know Nassim Taleb 

46:01 Rethinking investing 

49:01 New age of crisis 

54:40 Parting thoughts 

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian), Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy.

Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust. 

He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half. 

0:00 Intro 

0:40 Becoming a contrarian 

2:40 Macro view 

5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators 

8:40 What is the market forecasting? 

11:22 Another melt up in the market 

16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market

18:24 Economic and market cycles 

20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024

23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop

29:00 Deflation

34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade

41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar 

44:00 Treasuries 

47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’

49:20 Challenge to the thesis 

52:30 Parting thoughts  

Steve H. Hanke (@Steve_Hanke), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

Two years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. Hanke thinks the inflation story is over, and a recession is likely on the way. 

Read “Did Lockdowns Work?” Here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perspectives-_1_Did-lockdowns-work__June_web.pdf

The Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Score: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com/

0:00 Open

0:47 Money supply drives the economy

3:00 Inflation story is basically over 

4:49 Economic picture around the world 

5:25 Inflation is a local problem

7:02 The Fed has been a complete disaster 

12:13 One-to-one linkage in change in money supply and inflation 

13:00 Path to becoming a Monetarist 

15:00 Why doesn’t the Fed pay attention to the quantity theory of money 

18:24 Recession 

20:47 Preparing for a recession 

22:18 Long-term bullish on gold 

27:29 Covid lockdowns biggest policy mistake in modern times

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.

Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Show open

1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman

1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds

2:28 Harald Malmgren 

5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade 

6:25 Assessment of macro environment 

7:24 The Fed 

9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate 

15:00 Liquidity

18:00 Liquidity impact

23:30 China 

25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model 

29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China 

34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country 

37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult 

43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China 

46:40 China Is The Next Japan 

51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade” 

55:30 EV cars

58:00 Parting thoughts

Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, returns to the podcast for episode 79.

Brent, who believes we’re heading for a currency crisis, is the creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, a framework he developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.  

During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory and what’s changed since publicly sharing his thesis five years ago. Brent weighed in on the de-dollarization narrative and why he expects the U.S. dollar to go higher. He also made a case for investing in gold. 

0:00 Show Open 

1:22 Welcome Brent Johnson 

2:04 Macro framework 

2:57 Heading toward a sovereign debt and currency crisis 

4:04 Rate hikes will likely pinch economy in back half of the year

4:50 The Dollar Milkshake Theory, explained 

6:52 Why we’ll likely see easy money again

7:45 “This is not a story that ends well”  

10:00 Has the Dollar Milkshake Theory changed in 5 years?

13:42 Last year solidified our thesis 

17:37 Catalysts for a higher dollar

19:19 Credit crunch 

21:43 Geopolitical concerns 

22:40 De-dollarization 

29:49 A blowback from rate hikes? 

35:00 Headlines don’t match reality 

37:33 Debt ceiling short-term and long-term implications 

44:14 Why is the Fed continuing to hike? 

48:20 Why the Fed will pivot 

50:05 Regional banks 

52:52 Owning physical gold as an insurance policy 

55:05 Cash for optionality 

56:56 Camino de Santiago 

1:01:01 Parting thoughts 

Zurich-based author and investor Guy Spier (@GSpier), the founder and CEO of Aquamarine Capital, joins Julia La Roche one episode 78.

In 2008, Guy and his friend Monish Pabrai bid just over $650,000 for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. That meal with the Oracle of Omaha was a transformative experience for Guy, which he wrote about in his book, “The Education of a Value Investor,” which has sold more than 40,000 copies and has also been translated into Hebrew, German, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Mandarin and Spanish.

Guy completed his MBA at the Harvard Business School, class of 1993, and holds a First Class degree in PPE (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics) from Oxford University, where he studied at Brasenose College with British Prime Minister David Cameron. After completing his MBA, Guy started the Aquamarine Fund, an investment vehicle inspired by the original 1950s Buffett partnerships and run with a close replication of the original Buffett partnership rules. The focus is on investing for long-term capital appreciation and capital preservation by running a portfolio of equity investments with the goal of acquiring companies with outstanding long-term economics at a reasonable price and where there is a sufficient margin of safety between the company’s market price and its intrinsic value. Typical investors include high net-worth individuals, family offices, and private banks.

0:00 Show open

1:50 Welcome, Guy Spier

3:00 Started as a Gordon Gekko wannabe, found a ‘lifeline’ through Buffett

6:13 Reading about Warren Buffett

9:47 The pilgrimage to Omaha

11:00 Power of sending thank-you notes

17:00 Handwritten notes from Buffett

18:09 Bidding on lunch with Buffett

22:30 Lunch with Buffett was “transformational.”

27:44 The inner scorecard

30:00 Deep fear ahead of meeting Buffett

34:06 How much does the macro matter?

37:28 Siren songs of the hyped stocks

40:25 Writing with William Green

44:26 Why he changed his mind about not talking to company management

49:20 New investment process checklist items

54:15 Debt

57:10 Buffett spends time thinking about the downside

1:01:20 Content diet for investing

1:08:40 Surrounding yourself with a mastermind group

Harold Bradley, a long-time investment manager and chief investment officer, joins Julia La Roche on episode 77 to discuss why Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have distorted the role of equities markets in capital formation while posing systemic risks.

Bradley has broad and deep experience in mutual funds, foundations and endowments, exchanges, and private equity partnerships, including venture capital and hedge funds. His experience also encompasses investments in farmland, metals and mining, futures and options, and a track record of successful engagement with venture-backed technology and FinTech companies, including W.R. Hambrecht's OpenIPO, Euronet Worldwide, StarMine Corp (sold to Reuters) and Archipelago, LLC (IPO).

In 1982, Bradley introduced first of a kind cash-settled stock index futures contract in the Value Line Composite Index while at the Kansas City Board Trade before purchasing a membership and trading for five years on the floor. In 1988, he was hired at Twentieth Century, now American Century, as the first equity trader, and built a globally recognized trading operation over the next ten years. He was the lead portfolio manager of small-cap growth funds from 2003 to 2007. He was later appointed Chief Investment Officer of aggressive growth strategies before being named President of American Century Ventures in 1999, which invested $63 million in businesses likely to disrupt the mutual fund industry. From 2003 to 2007, he managed American Century Tomorrow and a team of software engineers and developers who used artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, inference engines, and pattern recognition to develop manager compliance systems and quantitative investment strategies for American Century growth mutual funds managing $10B. The American Century trading desk received global recognition as an innovator of electronic trading techniques and protocols, including the Financial Information Exchange (FIX) Protocol steering committee that created open source standards for order, trade and settlement instructions between investment firms, brokers and exchanges in global equities and foreign exchange trading.

Throughout his career, Bradley delivered Congressional testimony on stock market regulation, electronic trading, soft dollars, decimalization of stock prices, and ETFs. As Chief Investment Officer of the Kauffman Foundation from 2007 to 2012, he co-authored a vital research paper with Robert Litan highlighting risks to market stability from lax regulation of ETFs. He also co-authored widely-cited papers on subpar venture capital fund returns, with recommended best practices. He's been interviewed by CNBC, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others.

Read Harold Bradley's October 2011 testimony on ETFs here: https://www.etf.com/docs/Bradley_Testimony_10-19-11_SII.pdf

0:00 Open

1:21 Harold Bradley

2:15 Accidental investor

3:00 Agricultural commodities reporter

5:43 A major structural shift

6:45 Pace of change

7:50 Wheat pit to stocks

10:29 1987 crash

13:04 Black Monday blamed on portfolio insurance. ETFs 'a form of portfolio insurance'

13:45 20 Building trading operation

16:30 Electronic trading

21:15 Fees

22:40 Flawed system was a bug, not a feature

23:01 Soft dollars

28:59 Testified before Congress six times

30:10 Risk in ETFs

32:00 Drawback to mutual funds

35:12 Why did ETFs start

38:22 Decimalization

40:30 How D.C. works

43:00 ETFs are presented as a passive investment, but they're not

48:30 KRE

53:29 ETFs have instant liquidity, but the component securities within an ETF aren't immediately liquid

57:00 Gold/silver ETFs

1:00:45 Margin lending

1:03:18 How are ETFs distorting markets and the systemic risk they pose

1:06:00 Undermining price discovery

1:10:38 Bubbles

1:11:50 AI next ETF craze

1:13:00 Punishing good management

1:17:00 Investing today

1:20:00 Investing challenges

1:22:54 Why market won't go down?

1:27:00 Fragile markets

1:28:00 ETF risk likely won't go away

1:34:00 Markets today

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 193 to share his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts.

Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.  He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.

**DISCLOSURE** Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back Tom

1:00 Where we are today in the markets

2:00 McClellan Oscillator showing the bulls are no longer in control

6:30 Presidential Cycle Pattern

10:50 Liquidity

12:40 Gold

20:29 Japanese Yen

22:00 Mexican Peso

23:25 Gold

25:25 Dollar

31:40 McClellan Oscillator explained, signaling an overbought and bearish condition in the markets

33:16 Are recession signals flashing in the market?

36:00 Demographics

38:27 Market timing

40:41 Federal Reserve is 13 months overdue for cutting

43:00 Presidential Cycle

46:29 Parting thoughts

Links:  

https://www.mcoscillator.com/

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc

Herb Greenberg (@HerbGreenberg) is the editor of the Empire Financial Daily e-letter, Herb Greenberg's QUANT-X System, and Empire Real Wealth.

Previously, he was the co-founder of Pacific Square Research and Greenberg Meritz Research & Analytics – both independent, short-biased investment research firms.

Greenberg spent more than 40 years as a financial journalist at some of the country's leading newspapers, websites, and broadcast media, where he covered almost every industry.

He served as senior stocks commentator at CNBC and was a financial correspondent at the Chicago Tribune. He also spent 10 years as the daily business columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle, during which time he started his five-year run as Fortune's monthly Against the Grain columnist and was the morning business reporter for San Francisco's KRON-TV.

When the Internet and online media were still emerging, Greenberg was one of the first mainstream journalists to make the shift online, when he became senior columnist at TheStreet. He later shifted to the same role at MarketWatch. When Dow Jones bought out MarketWatch, he added a weekend investor column for the Wall Street Journal to the mix.

Earlier in his career, Greenberg was a reporter at Crain's Chicago Business and a business reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He also spent a year as an analyst at a risk arbitrage firm.

Greenberg holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Miami and completed the Herbert J. Davenport Fellowship at the University of Missouri.

0:00 Show Open

1:54 Welcome Herb Greenberg

2:40 Wanted to be a radio disc jockey, turned out to be a business journalist

4:06 Getting hooked on reporting 

5:40 Path to the University of Miami 

6:00 Late bloomer in journalism career 

9:00 From Miami to St. Paul

10:25 Herb’s big break at Crain’s (the “bootcamp” of his career)

14:00 ‘Golden era’ of business journalism 

15:08 Herb wrote the ‘original Business Insider’ column

18:08 The story Herb never talks about 

22:00 State of business journalism today 

24:44 Stories 

27:14 Assessment of the markets and the economy 

28:44 Paying the price for ridiculously low rates 

30:00 Discrepancy between what’s real and the data 

31:16 Markets are messy 

32:55 Wish I had been more aggressive in funding 401k and IRA

34:55 Best question anyone has ever asked me 

37:57 Family office analysts are happier than hedge fund analysts 

42:00 Red flags 

46:00 Silicon Valley Bank, regional bank failures

49:00 The ETF Monster https://www.cnbc.com/2010/09/13/man-vs-machine-the-etf-monster.html

51:30 Blaming the short-seller narrative 

53:10 Concept of avoiding loss

53:50 ChatGPT is the ‘new weather’ on earnings calls

58:00 Longevity 

Mike Maloney (@mike_maloney), author of Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver and founder and CEO of GoldSilver.com, joins Julia La Roche on episode 75 to discuss his newest book and latest warning that an economic storm is coming that will dwarf the 2008 global financial crisis and why we could see the unleashing of a massive bull market in gold and silver.

You can buy Mike’s newest book, The Great Gold And Silver Rush Of The 21st Century here: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Gold-Silver-Rush-Century/dp/B0BP3HW5HJ

You can read Chapters 3 and 4 of The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st here: ⁠https://ggsr21.com/online-chapters/⁠

You can buy Mike's first book Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver here: https://www.amazon.com/Guide-Investing-Gold-Silver-Financial/dp/1937832740/

0:00 Show open

1:30 Welcome Mike Maloney

2:56 Mike says the new book is not easy to find on Amazon

4:00 Macro picture today — the world is drowning in debt

5:59 ‘An evil monetary system’

7:20 ‘You have been monetized’

13:00 When we used gold 

14:29 Modern monetary system based on ‘fraud, theft, and enslavement,’ says Mike Maloney 

17:00 ‘Unless it stores value, it’s not money. Period.’ 

17:15 Money v. Currency 

22:12 A monetary system that’s ‘an illusion' 

24:00 ‘On a path toward an implosion’ 

26:00 CBDCs 

27:58 Central Banks buying gold 

28:47 China and gold 

33:00 A bigger financial crisis than 2008? 

35:00 ‘The Almost Everything Bubble’ and ‘The Bernanke Bust’ 

39:00 Open Market explained 

48:33 Warping the economy 

50:35 Interest in gold and silver 

53:00 US dollar 

54:00 Trapped in an ultra-complex system 

56:26 Taxpayer takes a loss 

59:00 Benefits of owning precious metals during a meltdown 

1:02:50 Gold and silver could soar 

Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 74 for a deep dive into macro, the regional banking crisis, inflation dynamics, and more.

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.

Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard.

0:00 Intro

1:43 Welcome Bob Elliott 

2:27 Macro picture 

3:30 Many people haven’t experienced a typical macro cycle in their careers

4:48 Income-led cycle, not a credit-led cycle 

6:33 Areas that aren’t sensitive to rise in rates

9:33 Banking crisis 

9:54 Not like 2008

13:30 Not a credit problem. It’s a policy problem. 

16:00 The bank run issue 

19:00 We’ve entered a point in the crisis where the ineffective policy framework is creating the instability 

20:10 Bank runs are self-reinforcing 

21:00 Speculators creating sizable moves in banking stocks 

23:00 Best way to deal with banking crisis 

25:35 Impact from the Fed’s policies 

29:18 Commercial real estate risk 

32:55 Globalization 

36:16 Disconnect between the market and the Fed 

38:42 Higher for longer most probable 

40:20 Paths that align with the bond market pricing 

42:30 Likelihood of getting back to the 2% inflation target 

44:32 Inflation entrenchment 

46:20 Risk Fed faces with inflation 

47:46 Wage inflation 

48:50 Raising prices and not seeing demand destruction 

51:33 Teaching macro 

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 73 to discuss the failure of First Republic Bank, the Federal Reserve’s role in the spate of bank failures, and why we should expect more failures ahead. 

In this episode, Whalen outlines why thee will be a repricing across the banking industries as banks have to raise deposit rates to get closer to T-bills, but many banks can’t do that. As a result, he expects that the Fed will have to drop rates before the end of the year or risk more bank failures. 

0:00 Intro 

1:41 Welcoming Chris Whalen 

2:22 The false narrative around First Republic’s failure 

3:14 The Fed panicked and started excessive open market intervention in 2019

4:09 Outliers in banking are the ones going down 

5:02 It’s just like the 1980s 

5:48 If banks don’t reprice, they’re not going to make it

6:20 The Fed likely didn’t recognize this existential risk 

7:00 Fed buying MBS was a terrible mistake 

7:47 Monetary policy is implemented in the bond market 

8:11 Why was the Fed buying MBS? It’s dangerous.

10:19 Not surprised by bank failures

11:45 Most banks are insolvent 

12:45 Weaker banks will get picked on, but larger banks could go down

13:36 Bank of the Ozarks successfully raised more deposits 

14:00 Powell will have to drop rates before end of the year or we’ll have more bank failures 

16:38 Not a failure of supervision 

17:24 Where is the blame placed? 

18:50 All banks are going to be vulnerable 

19:50 Net Interest Margin is going to get squeezed 

20:45 How many more bank failures can Powell and Yellen survive? 

22:41 Different from 2008? 

24:00 Impact or rate hikes 

25:11 Fed raised too far, too fast, and left the banks with big losses

26:40 Commercial real estate risk 

29:33 Powell could lose control of the situation if he doesn’t talk to Congress and the public about the situation 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion. 

In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.  

In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true. 

Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber.

0:00 Intro

2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show

2:50 Beginnings in investing 

3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college

4:40 Reading about traders 

5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully 

7:20 Starting own firm 

8:20 Managing money at age 22 

8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years 

9:50 Tony Robbins 

10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try 

14:00 Zook’s “why” 

16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus 

18:36 Thematic approach 

20:30 Betting against subprime housing 

25:00 Macro outlook

25:12 Meme stock bubble 

26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations 

27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet 

27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think 

28:08 A manufactured recession 

29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year

30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession 

31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market 

33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful 

33:54 Stagflation 

34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets 

38:13 Opportunities 

40:20 Themes right now 

41:09 Cord-cutting 

41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights

43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today 

45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing 

46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet 

47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed 

50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook 

53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying 

56:29 Growth of private assets 

57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes 

Omeed Malik (@RealOmeedMalik), founder and CEO of Farvahar Partners, a boutique merchant bank and broker/dealer which invests partner capital into growth businesses and acts as a liquidity provider of private placements on behalf of companies and institutional investors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 71 to share what he sees as an emerging parallel economy in the U.S. that’s in stark contrast to ESG.

Omeed is the chairman and CEO of a SPAC called Colombier Acquisition Corp. that is taking PublicSq., a marketplace for “pro-America business and consumers,” public later this year. He also started a fund called 1789 Capital to provide “venture and growth capital to companies building the next era of American prosperity.” 

Prior to starting his own firm, Omeed was a Managing Director and the Global Head of the Hedge Fund Advisory Business at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Omeed was also the founder and head of the Emerging Manager Program within the Global Equities business. In this capacity, Omeed was charged with selecting both established and new hedge funds for the firm to partner with and oversaw the allocation of financing/prime brokerage, capital strategy, business consulting and talent introduction resources.

Before joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Omeed was a Senior Vice President at MF Global, where he helped reorganize the firm’s distribution platform globally and developed execution and clearing relationships with institutional clients.

An experienced financial services professional and securities attorney, Omeed was a corporate lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP working on transactional matters in the capital markets, corporate governance, private equity and bankruptcy fields.

Omeed has also worked in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Omeed received a JD, with Honors, from Emory Law School (where he serves on the Advisory Board) and a BA in Philosophy and Political Science, Cum Laude, from Colgate University. He holds Series 7, 63, 3, 79, and 24 registrations. 

Omeed is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Centennial Society Member of the Economic Club of New York and a Chairman’s Circle Member of the Milken Institute. Omeed is a Contributing Editor and minority owner of The Daily Caller.

0:00 Intro

2:06 Welcoming Omeed Malik

2:50 From D.C. to corporate law to Wall Street

3:30 Started as a speechwriter in D.C. 

4:11 Working for Jon Corzine at MF Global

5:12 Launching Farvahar in 2018, advising founders

5:38 New opportunity in a new economy called the “patriot economy” 

6:33 D.C. is a place where you get a lot of power, but not money

7:20 The country has changed

8:05 No longer identifying as a Democrat

8:33 2016 election of Trump

9:12 Rise of China 

11:33 Leaving the Democratic Party 

14:15 Tulsi Gabbard 

16:22 China is the most significant geopolitical threat in my lifetime 

20:16 ‘Red America’ is a huge TAM 

21:02 ESG is a marketing scam 

23:00 ESG backlash 

26:20 Opportunity for a parallel economy focused on ‘EIG’ (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Growth)

28:30 A $7T opportunity 

33:00 A bifurcated economy 

34:30 Taking PublicSq. public via SPAC

35:00 Bud Light Dylan Mulvaney backlash led to spike in search for alternative beer

36:30 Scratching the surface of the opportunity 

38:40 Changes on a personal level

40:00 TikTok a ‘Trojan Horse’ in a modern-day Opium War 

41:00 Evisceration of the middle class

42:00 Ceding liberty when you work for a large corporation 

44:41 Need to reevaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China 

51:27 Optimistic for the future of the U.S.

53:00 Big Tech’s “Devil’s bargain” 

55:00 Impact on relationships 

Long-time macro investor Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, returns to the pod for episode 70 and a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, the economy, the banking crisis, problems plaguing commercial real estate, the U.S. Dollar, gold and more.

In this episode, Merk points out how the economy is a mess. He also explains that those in the “soft landing” camp are ignoring “the big elephant in the room,” which is the bank balance sheets exposed to interest rate risk and commercial real estate. He later adds that the Fed’s actions are converting an acute problem into a chronic problem, where banks with holes in their balance sheets will lend less, which is a headwind to growth. 

Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies.

0:00 Intro

1:50 Welcome Axel Merk

2:22 Background in macro

3:32 Deep dives into central banks 

4:00 The Fed is higher for longer 

4:53 Big elephant in the room are the banks 

6:02 Banking crisis is still here

8:40 Banking system limping along 

10:38 Policymakers will bend the rules 

11:29 People will invest based on next bailout as opposed to fundamentals 

13:00 Commercial real estate 

15:22 How to fix banks 

20:07 Moral hazard? 

21:30 Banking is risky 

23:22 SVB depositors

29:00 Converting acute problems into chronic problems

30:00 Inflation

34:00 Stagflation a longer more persistent issue

48:00 Dedollarization 

51:47 Risk of people moving out of the dollar is more than theoretical 

56:41 Debt ceiling fight 

1:01:01 Capitalism 

Joseph Wang (@fedguy12), the CIO of Monetary Macro and a former senior trader on the Open Markets Desk, joins Julia La Roche on episode 69 for a wide-ranging conversation on the monetary system, macro economy, and recent banking panic. 

Wang is also the author of Central Banking 101, which is now an Amazon best-seller, and operates Fedguy.com, a blog on developments in the financial markets.

During this episode, Wang said it’s almost inevitable that the U.S. will have a decade of persistently high inflation. He also mentioned that this trend is difficult to combat and is driven mainly by the culture and politics of the era. According to Wang, we are in the early stages of the inflationary cycle.

0:00 Introduction

1:40 Welcoming Joseph Wang on the show

2:11 From practicing law to trading on the Open Markets Desk

3:20 Practicing law is boring

4:02 Graduating in 2008 

5:38 Open Markets Desk at the Fed 

7:02 Central Banking 101 

8:26 Misconceptions around the monetary system 

10:50 Disconnect between school and real-life in macro

11:58 Commercial banks create money out of thin air 

13:49 Eurodollar system 

16:42 Eurodollar futures market 

19:08 Market is fighting the Fed 

20:17 Eurodollar banking 

21:33 De-dollarization

24:00 There aren’t a lot of good alternatives to the U.S. Dollar

25:00 What it takes to be a reserve currency 

25:45 Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar 

26:58 Bitcoin 

28:06 Will the U.S. Dollar lose its reserve status in our lifetime? 

28:47 Implications of the U.S. dollar losing its global reserve status 

30:33 Inflation will be a lot higher than we are used to 

31:08 Big driver of inflation is the culture and politics of the era

34:27 Macro outlook 

35:46 Demographic changes

39:48 Banking crisis is over 

44:42 Intervention during the banking crisis 

49:19 Is banking safer for depositors? 

50:15 Fed is in inflation-fighting mode 

53:38 Parting thoughts

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China.

Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945.

0:00 Intro

1:52 Introducing Ray

2:14 Macro picture

2:56 3 big forces shaping the world

5:14 2 other big influences

7:20 Tracking the typical cycle

7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict

10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War

11:02 Debt problem

12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide

13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine'

18:00 Political internal fighting

19:45 Emergence of populism

21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945

23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps

25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps

28:01 Can we avoid the decline?

28:41 If Ray Dalio were president…

30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry.

31:22 U.S.-China relationship

35:00 The redline

36:40 Brinksmanship

37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China

40:00 World order breakdown

41:33 The bifurcation

43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…'

44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind

45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.'

49:30 U.S. Treasuries

51:42 Portfolio construction

54:24 Diversify internationally

55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story

57:57 Bitcoin views today

1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down

1:03:57 Parting thoughts

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. He is a regular contributor to Real Clear Markets and a columnist for the Epoch Times and is active on Twitter as well as He has been a guest on countless programs, including MacroVoices, and Real Vision, for his insights into the Eurodollar system, LIBOR and repo/securities lending markets., etc.

During episode 67, Jeff explains that since late last year, markets have been "screaming bloody murder" in a way that hasn't been since 2007. According to Jeff, markets are hedged for a 2008-style scenario.

0:00 Introduction

1:53 Welcome Jeff Snider

2:40 Macro picture is “all sorts of ugly”

3:29 Economy in 2021 was an “artificial high”

4:00 Not just about macro, also about monetary system too

4:40 Still in the beginning stages

5:11 The economy is looking worse in short to intermediate-term outlook

6:00 Base case is mass layoffs

6:33 A false sense of confidence about the unemployment rate

9:48 Unemployment

11:43 The market is screaming bloody murder

12:48 A 2008-style scenario

14:40 Something wrong in the global system

17:30 How’d we get here?

18:20 Misconceptions around money printing and interest rates

19:45 Suffering from a lack of credit growth

22:06 The Eurodollar story

26:00 The Fed doesn’t print money

27:50 Distortions in the economy

29:00 Fed is ‘smoke and mirrors’

33:00 What is money?

34:34 Banking crisis

36:23 Monetary system has become incredibly fragile

37:33 Fragility of the monetary system

38:07 A shortage of good quality collateral

43:00 Treasury Bills

46:00 De-dollarization story

49:00 Shortage of dollars

49:37 The Eurodollar system will be replaced at some point

53:00 The shadow money system

55:00 Eurodollar system is a black hole

58:00 Digital currencies

1:01:37 What keeps Jeff up at night?

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, EVP and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company, joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy.

In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨  

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. 

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ 

Timestamps: 

0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt

1:16 Macro picture 

3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant 

5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunt's model

9:00 The economy is deteriorating 

15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem

21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings 

25:00 Decline in the standard of living

34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice 

40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility 

45:40 Fed is behind the curve 

47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle 

49:44 The global economy

Bethany McLean (@bethanymac12), author and journalist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 66 to revisit some notorious corporate failures and discuss fraud. Bethany is the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron and All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. She has also written two mini books, Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the US Mortgage Giants and Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World.

She also serves on the board of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago. She's a 1992 graduate of Williams College.

0:00 Background and path to journalism 

1:47 Goldman Sachs to fact-checking at Fortune 

4:15 Writing about investing 

5:45 Another side to stories 

6:37 Enron 

9:20 Reporting the Enron story 

14:45 Lessons from Enron 

15:20 Do you own homework 

18:00 Emotion in business 

20:00 Short-selling 

23:11 Do your own homework 

24:19 Valeant stock battle 

26:10 Legal fraud 

30:38 A thin line between a fraudster and a visionary 

33:15 World of business is crazier than ever before 

37:45 Golden age of fraud? 

41:03 Venture capital and private equity’s reliance on low-interest rates 

43:43 A different environment 

44:44 Curiosity covering corporate failures 

47:00 Can greed be eliminated? 

48:48 Banking crisis 

49:55 State of journalism 

Mark Yusko (@MarkYusko), founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which manages close to $2 billion in assets, joined Julia La Roche on episode 65.

In this episode, Yusko, a long-time macro investor, frames up the current macroeconomic backdrop and why we’re on the precipice of what he calls the Global Financial Crisis II as banks fail and jitters spread throughout the financial system. As Yusko puts it, “calm is the edge we need” as the crisis worsens.

Yusko was the CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.

Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, contributing to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

In this episode, Yusko provides a deep dive into the Endowment Model, which takes advantage of time-horizon arbitrage. He also delves into the mandate of investing in innovation, sharing an example of a half-a-million-dollar investment that turned into a $200 million return thanks to Sequoia’s early bet in Google on behalf of Notre Dame.

Yusko points out that the greatest wealth is created by being an early investor. However, making that investment requires believing in something before most people understand it, making you mocked, ridiculed, and criticized for your non-consensus action. Today, he continues to see that opportunity in blockchain technology, digital currency, and digital assets. He is again at the forefront of institutional investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018 to invest in these opportunities.

0:00 Intro 

3:08 The Endowment Model 

4:08 Taking advantage of time-horizon arbitrage

6:47 What else makes the Endowment Model unique?

8:00 Equity

10:20 Greatest wealth is created by being an early investor in innovation  

12:08 Mark’s background

13:33 Dialogue and debate through active listening

16:00 Lessons investing in bonds

19:00 A-ha moment in venture capital 

20:00 Investing in Sequoia early 

21:19 Being a journalist might be the best training for investing 

22:08 Half-a-million investment turns to $200 million thanks to Google investment 

25:30 Living the path of technological innovation 

30:40 The Truth Net explained

32:44 Macro backdrop 

34:19 Liquidity drives markets 

35:55 Fractional reserve banking 

39:00 Banking system driven by liquidity

41:20 Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin 2009 white paper 

44:00 Digital asset innovation 

47:00 Bitcoin as a digital store of value

50:15 A better system 

51:00 Duration mismatch in the banking system 

55:00 Impact of money printing 

57:16 Bitcoin 

58:49 Money printing doesn’t create wealth 

1:01:10 On the precipice of GFC II 

1:07:00 Chance meeting with Howard Marks

1:14:30 Blockchain is an Operating System

Ken Shinoda, portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 64 to provide his macro outlook and views on housing. He also shares one of his highest conviction ideas right now.

Ken joined DoubleLine at its inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans, and other mortgage-related opportunities. He is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Ken is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and also participates in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. Ken is also the host of DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (@DLineChannel11), a YouTube and webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. 0:00 Intro 0:38 A ‘master’s degree in finance’ analyzing MBS during the GFC 2:20 Macro view 5:07 Way more negative on the economy 6:00 Structured Products, explained 7:50 Why housing didn’t crash 8:27 Mirror opposite of the financial crisis 9:30 Office space 12:00 Less of a soft landing now 13:30 Housing outlook 17:50 Existing home sales 19:11 The Great Migration 21:00 Institutional buying in housing 24:55 Why the desert states are declining 25:30 Seeing homebuilding pick up again 26:37 Investing in RMBS explained 31:50 Forbearance 33:00 Views on credit quality, performance during different market cycles 37:00 Rates 40:00 Structured products 41:41 Commercial real estate 45:00 Parting thoughts