The Julia La Roche Show – Details, episodes & analysis

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps:

01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks

03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges

05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts

07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes

09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing

14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility

17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power

22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications

25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints

31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options

35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies

42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility

45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system

48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications

50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis

52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment

54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal

57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

00:00 Intro and welcome Jim

01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction

04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact

06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment

09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics

11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions

14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario

17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact

19:59 Stock market return expectations

22:25 Bond market competition with stocks

23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion

26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities

31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome

33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases

37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world

40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod

Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/

0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson

1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy

4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing

8:54 What is gold signaling?

14:22 Global demand for gold

17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained

24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system

30:22 Market outlook

37:42 Are markets in a bubble?

41:51 Gold price outlook

45:35 2024 election impact on markets

49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks

56:17 The global system as one big carry trade

59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets.

Links:

Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

“China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show 

1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view 

2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit 

3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption 

4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’ 

8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China 

10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market 

11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out 

15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5 

20:25 Implications of higher rates 

24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down

26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment 

37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target? 

42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster? 

43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance 

49:00 Biden 

53:58 Leadership 

56:00 Message for Millennials 

1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties 

1:04:22 Parting thoughts 

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.

In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.

When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.

As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.  
Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process.

Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.

0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show 

0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research 

2:23 Macro view today

4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down 

6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy 

8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy

11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year 

14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?

16:06 Higher for longer 

18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months

20:00 Consumer 

22:25 Markets 

25:08 Bond market 

32:00 Stock market 

36:40 Opportunities in the market 

39:15 Traditional 60/40 

41:30 Parting thoughts 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees just under $6 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 104 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion. 

In this episode, Zook shares that he still sees stagflation ahead. In this environment, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets, particularly in energy and real estate.

Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber.

0:00 Welcome Christopher Zook to the show

1:07 Macro view today 

2:50 The Fed likely to maintain credibility 

4:08 Inflation and stagflation 

5:40 Stagflation impact on stocks and bonds 

8:30 Entering into a lost decade 

11:44 Passive investing v. Active investing 

16:20 Dichotomy in the market 

19:00 Fiscal picture in the US

22:19 Betting against subprime 

22:53 Concern about the consumers’ spending habits

25:27 Investment opportunities 

28:52 Commercial real estate 

34:27 Energy

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential. 

Links: 

Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X?

Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins

Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/

RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/

A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins 

1:16 Macro view 

2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt

5:00 Housing market at a stalemate 

6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling” 

8:50 Valuations 

10:45 Purpose of raising rates 

13:12 Only way out is a reckoning 

13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing? 

15:45 Bullish long-term 

17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime 

20:12 Burn The Boats book 

25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back 

31:09 Career 

35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are 

38:30 Opening up

41:30 Most important skills of a founder 

42:45 Rex Ryan 

46:15 Best part of the book

48:40 Parting thoughts 

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more.

https://www.dayoneventures.com/

0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show

1:08 Venture capital landscape today

2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage

4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom

7:45 Robotics

9:25 Correction for generative AI companies?

11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos

14:00 Valuations

19:00 Investment activity

20:50 Vetting companies

26:48 Public relations to venture capital

31:35 When to get a PR agency?

36:12 Changing media landscape

40:00 Exits

45:35 Meeting founders through social

48:40 Starting a VC fund

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.

0:00 Welcome Larry to the show

1:00 Macro picture 

2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising

3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation 

5:32 Stagflation 

9:20 One-year breakevens 

10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI

14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market 

18:40 Indexing creating a bubble 

23:15 Regional bank risks 

27:25 Buy into capitulation selling 

29:17 Economic picture today 

34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade

37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now) 

39:34 Zombies 

42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value

47:00 Shift to stagflation

50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (@BillAckman), CEO of Pershing Square Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 100 for an exclusive and wide-ranging conversation. In this episode, Ackman revisits the various eras of his investing career, from his first stock purchase as a Harvard Business School student to his bet against MBIA and his activist stake in Wendy’s. He also discusses his transition to a “quieter” phase of activist investing and his foray into tech investing with the recent addition of Google's parent company, Alphabet. Along the way, Ackman shares lessons and insights on a range of topics, including raising capital in the face of rejection, learning from mistakes, and the importance of optimism and free speech. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook, shares his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, discusses the recent regional banking crisis, and more.

0:00 Welcome Bill Ackman to the show 

0:25 A ‘self study’ in investing 

1:30 The first stock Ackman purchased 

4:00 Raising capital like ‘blind dating’ 

5:45 Willingness to go against ‘the system’ 

8:30 Origins of Ackman’s persistence 

9:20 Incentives drive human behavior

11:30 Learning from mistakes/failure 

12:50 Optimism 

15:05 Why Ackman/Pershing Square survived the challenging years  

17:50 Codifying the eight principles in stone 

19:30 Three eras of Pershing Square

26:30 Rise of passive/indexing

31:10 Twitter/ free speech 

34:10 Macro assessment 

35:30 Longer-term risks to the economy 

37:45 2024 election 

39:40 Would Ackman ever run for office? 

41:10 Regional banks 

43:00 Buying Google/ impact of AI 

48:06 $600 million to philanthropy 

50:30 Parenting