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Explore every episode of the podcast The Global Gambit

Dive into the complete episode list for The Global Gambit. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Will Emerging Markets Lead the Next Financial Revolution?01 Sep 202500:34:19

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mitch Mechigian discuss the evolving landscape of geopolitics and finance, particularly focusing on the role of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. They explore Trump's shift from skepticism to support for crypto, the normalization of digital currencies among nation-states, and the implications of geopolitical events on the crypto market. The discussion also highlights the rise of stablecoins as a significant player in the financial system and the potential for emerging markets to lead the next wave of crypto adoption.

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What Happens to the Global Economy After US Hegemony? 06 Aug 202500:44:10

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Martin Wolfe discuss the evolving landscape of global economics, focusing on the return to regionalism, the implications of geopolitical uncertainties, and the role of currencies in the modern economy. They explore the impact of Trump's trade policies, the rejection of globalization, and the future of the US dollar amidst rising nationalism and protectionism.


Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 “for services to financial journalism”.

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Are Trump's Tariffs Exposing Limits of the BRICS Alliance? 19 Mar 202500:32:14

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Rohit Goel discuss the current state of the global economy, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on economic policies, particularly regarding China and emerging markets. They explore the challenges facing China, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and the implications of de-dollarization. The discussion also touches on the potential for BRICS to create a common currency, the role of cryptocurrencies, and the future of emerging markets in a multipolar world.


Rohit Goel is Partner and Head of Global Macro Research at Breakout Capital, where he leads analysis on emerging markets, global financial stability, and cross-asset macro strategy.

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Is Europe’s Uncertainty Over Russia Worsening Its Vulnerability? 05 Mar 202500:44:53

In this conversation, I am rejoined by Dmitri Alperovitch to delve into the latest of the Ukraine War, focusing on the diplomatic engagements between the US and Russia, the strategic decisions made by Ukraine, and implications of Trump's foreign policy.


We discuss the limited leverage the US has in influencing both Russia and Ukraine, the challenges of negotiating peace, and the realities of a war of attrition. We touch on the role of NATO, European defence strategies, and the significance of mineral deals in the context of US support for Ukraine.


This episode is sponsored by Military Metals Corp (CSE: MILI, OTCQB: MILIF, FSE: QN90). Learn more: www.militarymetalscorp.com/investors.


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Is Trump Putting the Global Economy at Risk to AI? 12 Feb 202500:33:57

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Chris Fenton discuss the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI technology developed in China, and its implications for US-China relations, national security, and the influence of technology on global narratives. They explore the role of open-source technology, the impact of platforms like TikTok, and the complexities of Trump's foreign policy towards China. The discussion highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by technological advancements and the need for the US to navigate its alliances and economic policies carefully.


Chris Fenton is a U.S.–China expert, author, and former Hollywood executive who led major film collaborations between the two countries and now advises on geopolitics, business, and media strategy.

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You Think Trump's Tariffs Are Bad Now? They Will Get Much Worse04 Feb 202500:13:19

In this episode, I react to and explain the implications of Trump's tariffs from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. I highlight the historical context of tariffs, their intended purpose, and the potential consequences for international relations and the US economy.


I also argue that while tariffs may seem beneficial in the short term, they could lead to significant long-term challenges, including supply chain disruptions, increased prices for consumers, and weakened alliances with traditional partners. The discussion emphasises the interconnectedness of economic policies and global power dynamics.

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My Biggest Geopolitical Risks In 202517 Jan 202500:13:19

Welcome to the Global Gambit 2025 - after some minor time off, we're back with more conversations and content, including more from me. This time starting with the 5 biggest geopolitical risks and themes in 2025!


This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic competition, the autocratic relations involving Russia and Iran, the rise of political violence and extremism, and the increasing risks associated with technology and AI. Each of these themes is explored in depth, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events and the potential consequences for international stability.


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How Critical Is North Korea to Putin's War in Ukraine? 18 Dec 202400:28:51

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Ankit Panda, about the deepening political crisis in South Korea and its wider regional implications. They discuss the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, the potential rise of progressive opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, and the resilience of South Korea’s democratic institutions. The conversation also explores North Korea’s expanding involvement in the war in Ukraine, China’s geopolitical manoeuvring, and what these developments mean for the future of U.S.–South Korea relations and security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula.


Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specialising in East Asian security, nuclear strategy, and U.S. foreign policy toward the Koreas.

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What Does Assad's Fall Mean For Syria? 11 Dec 202400:27:14

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Wladimir van Wilgenburg, journalist at the Kurdish Chronicle, about the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the shifting power dynamics across the region. They discuss the rapid advances by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups, the fall of key cities including Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, and the surprising absence of intervention from Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran. The conversation also explores the roles of Kurdish forces, Turkish-backed rebels, and the potential impact of an incoming Trump presidency on Syria’s future and broader Middle East stability.


Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a journalist and analyst specialising in Kurdish and Middle Eastern affairs, with a focus on Syria, Iraq, and regional conflict dynamics.


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What is Putin's Real Vision for Russia? 13 Nov 202400:33:38

Summary

In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Marlene Laruelle about the ideological foundations of Vladimir Putin’s regime and Russia’s evolving identity under his leadership. They discuss the tension between restoring the Soviet Union versus the Russian Empire, the influence of strongman politics, and how Russia’s future may unfold amid growing friction with NATO and shifting U.S. leadership. The conversation also explores the prospects for democratic change, the role of Russian nationalism, and the West’s ability to shape societal trends within Russia.


Marlène Laruelle is a research professor at George Washington University and an expert on Russian ideology, nationalism, and authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space.

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Can Ukraine Keep Up with Russia's Military Development? 23 Oct 202400:54:11

In this conversation, Pyotr is joined by (ret) Colonel Bob Hamilton and now Head of Eurasia Research at FPRI to discuss the current situation in Ukraine, focusing on Zelensky's victory plan, public sentiment regarding the war, military strategies, and the implications of foreign support.


We explore the complexities of defining victory, the role of NATO, and the technological adaptations in warfare. The discussion also touches on the involvement of North Korea and China, as well as the complacency of European nations in responding to the threat posed by Russia.


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Is the UN in a Permanent State of Paralysis? 02 Oct 202400:34:09

Summary


In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Richard Gowan, UN Director at the International Crisis Group, about the growing challenges facing the United Nations and the leadership of Secretary-General António Guterres. They discuss the contrasting messages delivered by world leaders at the UN General Assembly, including those from President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and explore the UN’s role in addressing humanitarian crises and global conflicts. Gowan reflects on the limitations of the General Assembly, the pressures facing Guterres, and the uncertain future of multilateral diplomacy in a fractured international landscape.


Richard Gowan is the UN Director at the International Crisis Group, where he analyses the United Nations’ role in global conflict resolution, diplomacy, and multilateral policy.

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Is a Nuclear Iran Inevitable Now?30 Jul 202500:27:12

Summary


In this conversation, Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the intricate geopolitical dynamics involving Russia, Iran, and China, focusing on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the implications of recent Israeli military actions. The dialogue explores the vulnerabilities of Iran's leadership, the reactions of global powers, and the potential future of negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The conversation emphasizes the delicate balance of power in the region and the strategic decisions that Iran must navigate in light of its recent setbacks.


Dmitri Alperovitch is a geopolitical strategist and co-founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator.

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How is the Ukraine War Transforming Modern Warfare?11 Sep 202401:01:17


Pyotr is joined by the esteemed Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London. We focus on the war in Ukraine and the conditions for a negotiated settlement and the challenges in reaching any such agreement. We debate motivations behind Putin's actions and the implications for the use of military force in international relations including role of NATO and the concerns of Russia regarding its expansion.


The principal themes discussed in the conversation include the challenges faced by NATO in satisfying Putin, the impact of events like the Kosovo War and the Orange Revolution on Russia's perception of the West, the importance of self-determination, the role of international law and norms, the rise of China as a global power, the complexities of the Russia-China relationship, and the need for the West to be aware of its limitations and engage in honest conversations about trade-offs.


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Could Cyprus Become Two Separate Nations? 10 Aug 202400:33:40

Cyprus marked the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion to the north of the island on July 20th 1974. Since Cyprus and the Cypriot people have remained divided by a United Nations buffer zone to prevent further conflict, including the only remaining split capital city Nicosia. Despite diplomatic efforts between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and even the UK that controls too strategic military bases, prospects of reunification or any change remain low.


I am joined by fellow YouTuber James Ker-Lindsay, and expert of Cyprus to cover this forgotten crisis and example of how complex geopolitics can be. We debate how Greek vs Turkish Cypriots differ in their feelings over separation, how the island has involved in the past decades, the roles of Britain, Greece, and Turkey especially, and why a 'two-state solution' may be more likely than reunification.


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Could Israel & Hezbollah Actually Go to War? 18 Jul 202400:38:39

Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of full-scale as the President Benjamin Netanyahu seriously considers sending the IDF into Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is not Hamas, being far more powerful and the flagship proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which could threaten escalating the war across the Middle East as the Ayatollah's don't want to lose such a military and strategic asset.


This time l am joined by Ryan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) to discuss this latest escalation. I challenged Ryan on how likely a Israel-Hezbollah war is, who and which assets are most at risk, how Netanyahu is costing the Israeli economy, whether the US can reign in Israel or prevent full-scale conflict, and if Iran could get pulled in.


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If we're in a New Cold War, does the USA need a new grand strategy for China? 03 Jun 202400:57:31

China thinks 'its their historical right to be' the world's foremost power, and the US 'doesn't have a moment to waste' in adequately preparing or responding to the flashpoint that could bring the 21st centuries largest powers to war: War over Taiwan. We truly are in a Cold War II and its time we stop kidding ourselves.


That's according to Dmitri Alperovitch - Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, Co-Founder of Crowdstrike, and author of the new book 'World on the Brink. A prolific voice in the areas of geopolitics, grand strategy, and cybersecurity, I challenged Dmitri to explain why he thinks we're in Cold War 2.0, what a Chinese invasion would look like, how the US needs to step up, and each's shortcomings and volatiles that could worsen escalation risks even more.


Pick up Dmitri's book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096.

Watch this interview and more on the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg

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What has the Russia-Ukraine War Done to Human Rights, War Crimes & the Law of War?10 May 202400:32:36

Thanks to all who support my work on Patreon - you make this possible If you'd like bonus content, your own questions put to guests, and appreciate my efforts to bring diverse, nuanced conversations consider joining as a patron too or buying me a one-off coffee.


Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If you want more, subscribe to the YouTube.


The Russia-Ukraine War is the most documented conflict in history. One of the darkest, toughest parts is recording evidence to expose Putin's war crimes and hold this war in line to international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict). A pioneer in this is Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, head of the Center for Civil Liberties and a 2022 Nobel Laureate.


We cover the importance of the US aid package to Ukraine, Oleksandra touring America and rallying Congress for support, her work documenting Russian war crimes, why the Russia Ukraine War is threatening human rights international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict) and much more.

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Have the Iran-Israel Clashes put the Middle East in a New Permacrisis? 03 May 202400:34:49

Israel and Iran’s clashes over April 2024 has left the Middle East in state of permacrisis. While immediate threat of war escalation seems to have subsided, the long term geopolitical implications are unprecedented. Many consider this to be a new reality for the region and how we interpret developments.


To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam Vakil - Director of Chatham House’s MENA programme, joined me for this extraordinarily timely conversation.


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Are the Houthis in Yemen permanently reshaping global commercial shipping? 18 Jan 202400:50:48

Since Oct 7th the world has been rocked by the Israel-Hamas War. That has caused a series if escalations, including the ongoing Houthi disruptions to maritime security and global commercial shipping.


Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. However, the long-term of these events on shipping are unprecedented, and not merely about the Houthis actions, but those of the ship insurers, explains Sal Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University. And the ramifications really are redefining global economic processes as well as geopolitical tensions.


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South Asia: A region in Good or Bad Condition? 31 Dec 202300:51:02

South Asia - or the Indian subcontinent to others - is going through a concentrated set of shifts. Three of the main players - Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, all have major elections next year with each proposing potentially different directions - but which?


Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and details of these 3 countries on the geopolitical landscape. And while they all share elections, the reasons for, and potential consequences from, vary significantly, in a globe already highly unpredictable.


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Can the UN's COP28 deliver on Climate Change? 07 Dec 202300:22:30

The United Nations Climate Change Conference - known to most as COP - and in this case, COP28, is the highest-level of international engagement and gathering to find collective solutions to the globe's greatest collective challenge.


Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and attending COP28, this years began with an uplifting start - implementation of the loss and damage fund. But that's just the start, and as Nazanine made clear, there is real need to include one specific aspect: climate-conflict and security challenges.

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Is the BRICS bloc Overhyped or Underestimated?17 Nov 202300:30:34

2023 was a big year for multinational, multi-forum events, ranging from the G20 to BRICS to the annual UN General Assembly. But of these, the concept and symbolism of BRICS is often the one that captures the minds of people, especially those who tend to have anti-Western sentiments and desire for a multipolar order.


But why this fascination, arguably infatuation for the BRICS? Is it purely about it removing the US hegemony or something else? What of the expansion consisting of 6 new members? My guest Ali Wyne, senior analyst in Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joined me for an in-depth conversation and exchange of ideas in this thoroughly enlightening yet entertaining episode.


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Is Trump Triggering Gold to Replace the Dollar? 09 Jul 202500:32:12

Summary


In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Frank Giustra about the spiralling U.S. debt crisis, the fragility of dollar dominance, and how rivals like China and the BRICS bloc are accelerating moves away from the post-war financial order. From unfunded liabilities to currency alternatives, we unpack whether the U.S. is facing a market correction — or the beginning of the end of its global economic power.


Frank Giustra is a Canadian entrepreneur, philanthropist, and geopolitical thinker. He is co-chair of the International Crisis Group, founder of Lionsgate, and former CEO of Goldcorp.

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What is Israel's long-term military objective in Gaza? 23 Oct 202300:58:01

Since the Oct 7th, the world has been rocked by events that many have always agonised and speculated - escalation and war between Israel and Gaza, specifically Hamas. From there, we have witnessed continued intensification, with a growing fear over the possibility of a regional war.


Much of this rests on the near-inevitable ground operation the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will undertake - the severer, harsher their approach, the more it might trigger a response from others, namely Hezbollah, because of a need to protect, defend, and similar motivations to their brethren. But what could that look like? What form of operations, what broader strategic objectives? And what about the relevance of external forces, such as US input, Iranian support and more?


Guests, Bryan Cunningham - former CIA analyst, and Patrick Fox, USAF Veteran, broke down some of the details from their experiences on this highly sensitive, hugely complex matter. Indeed, this podcast isnt attempting to cover all aspects and historical context, merely provide some takes to better make sense of the situation.


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Can the UK Salvage Brexit or is 'Bregret' Permanent? 17 Oct 202300:37:38

Context


Since June 24th 2016, the UK has had its entire economy, society and political environment largely defined by a singular issue - Brexit. The word itself, before diving into anything at all, is a source of contention.


Yet, very little to many, including myself, has changed. Certainly not in terms of improvements. Merely a country that is suffering an identity crisis as much as it is political turmoil, economic stagnation and social polarisation.


However, it doesnt necessarily need to stay that way, and are there still ways to make the most of it? Can we realise 'buccaneering Britain'? Or will be remain at risk of 'boiling the frog' - both these analogies and more are outlined by Peter Foster, Public Policy Editor at the Financial Times in this episode and his new book.


Peter's Book - What Went Wrong With Brexit And What We Can Do About It


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How bad is the Niger Coup & Could it lead to Regional War? 28 Aug 202300:48:01

In late-July 2023, the country of Niger - a critical Western ally in Africa, and against the threats of Islamic Jihadism, experienced its 7th coup since WWII. The democratically elected President Bazoum was ousted, and there have been many claiming the role of Wagner/Russia or that this is positive for greater independence, autonomy from former colonial masters, France.


But its not that clear cut, and Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings Institute, emphasises that while there is some support for Russia, its definitely not that high; while the hatred of ECOWAS, the regional body that could lead a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum is not as high either.


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Could we see conflict between Serbia & Kosovo? 22 Jul 202301:00:37

Over 2023 there has be an intensified number of clashes and tensions occurring within an area already heightened and swamped in tension: Serbia & Kosovo. Most notably, these led to rare and unsettling clashes between Serbia communities and members of KFOR - the NATO mission stationed to help address and ideally, prevent, these very scenarios.


So what happened, and why? What about these clashes made them worse and why was NATO directly involved? Why were Western capitals critical of Kosovo over these events when they're usually defensive? How does this all impact Ukraine and Russian interests?


These themes were put to Ivana Stradner, research fellow at Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD). During this live talk, we also joined by Colonel (R) Jeffrey Fischer and former diplomatic defence official to Kosovo.


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Is France's Macron Undermining or Advancing Europe's Strategic Autonomy?01 Jun 202300:42:48

France has always been more strategically independent relative to other European such as the UK. But Macron's trip to China while important for French and European interests, caused a stir after he commented about the need for Europe to be more autonomous. Some, like Poland, took it as a snub to the US and transatlantic relations, while many other EU nations tacitly agreed.


But which is right? What did Macron mean and where does he stand? I put these questions to Tara Varma, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institutions, Center on the United States and Europe, and French expert. Prior to that, she was senior fellow and the head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).


FOLLOW Tara: https://twitter.com/tara_varma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor



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What does Turkey's election mean for the country and globe? 12 May 202300:38:02

Its hard to overstate the importance of Turkey's election on May 14th. And as Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Turkey Program at  @MiddleEastInstitute , makes clear, its more than just about policies. It is about the very identity of Turkey; and whether it remains on the path towards democracy or authoritarianism.


In this Part 1, of a mini-series, Gonul joined  @theglobalgambit  for a preview to the election, Erdogan's resilience, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu & the main opposition, and more! Stay tuned for Part 2 on foreign policy implications.


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Is Ukraine creating a new interpretation of international relations: Neo-Idealism? 17 Apr 202300:33:11

Context

Ukraine continues to fight for not merely for its sovereignty and freedom, but arguably and in the eyes of some, values of many democratic, more specifically Western, values.

While not everyone views the war as a case of David vs Goliath, with some believing it to be a typical proxy war, my guest this episode, Benjamin Tallis, certainly isn't one of them.

Indeed, Benjamin is a firm advocate for the concept and academic theory: Neo-Idealism. He believes it to be a new approach to Grand Strategy & International Relations' emerging from the Ukraine-Russo War.

To make more sense of it, l sat down with Benjamin to outline more about this exciting concept alongside his book: To Ukraine With Love.

Follow Benjamin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bctallis.

*NOTE: This conversation was part of a broader one on Twitter Spaces, including a Q/A which last 45 mins more. To access that, and more exclusive content, consider becoming a Patreon for only $2: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit. 

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Can the BRICS+ Really Challenge the West? 20 Mar 202300:40:20

Context

 The globe is experiencing even more instability, unpredictability and more - even more than ever, as we arguably enter a multipolar world, with alternative forms of currency, balance of power and so on. 

Could the BRICS countries really create an alternative financial system to challenge or undermine the US-led order? 

I put this question, and others such as the potential of cryptocurrency to Frank Giustra, co-chair of Crisis Group and founder of Fiore Group in this broad conversation. 

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Could China & the US engage in space conflict?28 Feb 202300:44:32

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Context
Between Jan 28th-Feb 4th 2023, the world and especially the US were captivated by a UAP - unidentified ariel phenomenon. Turning out to be a Chinese spy or surveillance balloon, it rose many questions, including one around US-China relations in space - known as astropolitics.

Conveniently, the timely and insightful report, China and Strategic Instability in Space, was just released and l spoke with its authors: 
Carla Freeman: senior expert on China at USIP & former director of SAIS's FPI.
Bruce MacDonald: expert on nuclear proliferation, military space and cyber, teaching at SAIS and lifetime member of CFR.

Read the report here: https://www.usip.org/events/china-and-strategic-instability-space. In partnership with Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute. 

There were also audience questions that didn't make the final cut. You can find those available on Patreon when you sign up for as little as $2. 

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What is on the UN Agenda in 2023 and can it do more for Ukraine?14 Feb 202300:50:32

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Episode Outline

More than ever, the UN has a lot on its plate in 2023. Top of this remains Ukraine and is what largely will define its agenda according to my guest, Richard Gowan. But we also discussed others questions including:

  1. Is the UN capable of doing more?
  2. Is it time for the Security Council to be modernised and if so how?
  3. Has Sec Gen Antonio Guterres be an effective leader?
  4. Why should we remain optimistic about the UN in 2023?

There were some additional questions from the audience that didn't make the final cut. Find those available on Patreon

Guest Profile

Richard Gowan oversees Crisis Group’s advocacy work at the United Nations, liaising with diplomats and UN officials in New York. He has also worked as a consultant for the UN Department of Political Affairs, the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on International Migration and more. 

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Why Didn't Oil Prices React to the Middle East Crisis? 25 Jun 202500:32:19

Summary  


This conversation delves into the intricate relationship between energy geopolitics and conflict, particularly focusing on the Iran-Israel tensions and the implications for global oil markets. Anas Al-Hajji provides insights into the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, the dynamics of oil pricing, and the roles of major players like the US and Russia in shaping energy policies. The discussion also highlights the future of energy demand in light of climate change and technological advancements, emphasizing that the world cannot overlook Iran's potential in the energy sector.  


Dr. Anas F. Alhajji is a leading energy economist and former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital, known for his global expertise in oil markets, energy policy, and macroeconomic strategy.

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How critical is the 2023 North American Summit (NALS) for the global economic outlook? 31 Jan 202300:51:54

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Episode Outline

In Jan 2023, the three leaders of North America met for the North American Summit. This year, with Ukraine, Chinese decoupling and reopening, covid-remnants, this years could be even more significant. To make sense of it l turned to Amb. Juan-Jose Gomez Camacho to cover:

  1. What is NALS and why's it matter?
  2. How much are current events influencing regional priorities?
  3. Did the capture of El Chapo's son play in Mexico's thinking?
  4. How do Canadian-Mexican relations play vis-a-vis the US?
  5. What should we make of this growing 'near-shoring' or 'friend-shoring'?

We also had a few audience questions, some that dived deeper in Mexican affairs and also the Ambassador's thoughts on LATAM given Peru.

Find those available on Patreon

Guest Profile

Amb. Juan Jose Gomez Camacho is a veteran diplomat, serving most recently as Ambassador of Mexico to Canada and 30+ years of a career! He has also served as Ambassador to Singapore, Myanmar and Brunei, as well as the EU, Luxembourg, and the United Nations as Mexico's Permanent Representative. 

This talk happened in the collaboration from Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI).

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How pivotal has Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) been in the Ukraine War? 11 Jan 202301:00:53

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Episode Outline

In the fall of 2022, l held a panel on the unprecedented role Open-Source-Intelligence (OSINT) has had on the Ukraine War. It is has hard to believe what the state of the conflict would be without social media communities that have emerged over time. Therefore, it is also hard to overstate how influential it has been in changing fortunes on across Ukraine. Yet, they have been surprisingly underrepresented in the media, despite, referenced by outlets, and often being quicker to provide updates than the mainstream media.

OSINT focuses on legally gathering information from free tools or resources, usually public sources about an individual or organization. In practice, that tends to mean information found on the internet, with examples being geolocation, satellite imagery or documentation. I spoke with 3 accounts on Twitter, who were some of the first to begin tracking and sharing details about developments in the Ukraine War.

Guest Profile

Spook: Began their account in November 2021 to follow the Russian build up on Ukraine's border and began posting various updates, especially concerning graphic content.

The Intel Hub: Despite already a full-time analyst, this account began focused on the war looking at imagery, footage, and materials, focusing on OSINT, aggregation and analysis.

OSINTdefender: Acted as a OSINT monitor with an emphasis on Eastern Europe and increasingly the Central Asian / Eurasian regions. Holds a background in geospatial analysis.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from this  interview, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

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What did the West get wrong about Russia and Ukraine? 16 Dec 202201:15:11

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Since the last episode, Pyotr started a Substack where he shares his reflections on interviews and produces backgrounders to current or emerging events.

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Episode Outline

On Nov 28th, 2022, Pyotr met with Alex Vindman for an in-person interview at Johns Hopkins SAIS, where Vindman is a fellow. Alex and Pyotr had a wide-ranging conversation - some topics like Taiwan or US-China rivalries, are available exclusively to Patreons - but questions on this podcast episode include: 

  1. What is the status of democracy vs autocracy?
  2. How much is the West to blame for what happened in 2022? 
  3. Where is the Russian airforce and why hasn't it been used? 
  4. What could the endgame look like and the prospect of negotiations?

This event was done in collaboration with Johns Hopkin's Foreign Policy Institute. Many thanks especially to Sophia Salazar RA for helping arrange the talk!

Guest Profile

Alex Vindman - a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and former Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council. He is authoring the book: Here, Right Matters: An American Story & currently pursuing his doctorate degree at Johns Hopkins.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from Alex Vindman's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

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Is President Xi's leadership at risk, especially after China's zero-covid protests?02 Dec 202200:53:34

ALERT!

Since the last episode, Pyotr started a Substack where he shares his reflections on interviews and provides explainers to current or emerging events.

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Episode Outline

The last weekend of November 2022 saw protests across China, largely associated with the country's zero-covid policies. Despite responses by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), protests continued, leading some to wonder how far they might go, if they could become a new Tiananmen Square, or threaten the CCP's legitimacy - especially in light of the 20th National Congress of the CCP where Xi was elected for life. Pyotr explored these themes with James Palmer, with questions involving:

  1. What triggered the protests and how severe were they?
  2. Is there a high probability they will continue?
  3. How does this affect Xi's popularity or his decision-making?
  4. Are these trends and other internal issues undermining Chinese foreign policy?
  5. What could these developments mean for Taiwan?

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from James's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Guest Profile

James Palmer - deputy editor at Foreign Policy and writes FP’s weekly China Brief newsletter. He authored The Bloody White Baron: The Extraordinary Story of the Russian Nobleman Who Became the Last Khan of Mongolia and The Death of Mao: The Tangshan Earthquake and the Birth of the New China.


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Could drones change Russia's fortunes in the Ukraine War? 20 Nov 202201:12:37

Episode Outline

Over the autumn, the Ukraine War took a notable turn. Aside from Putin's renewed nuclear threats or Russian mobilization, the role of drones began to increase - especially on Russia's side.  These 'kamikaze' drones are being supplied exclusively by the Iran regime, whose sales they leverage to help oppress the Iranian people - as speakers, John Spencer, Patrick Fox and Sam Bendett comment on.  Questions in this episode include:

  • What are the current conditions around types of drones and their use in war?
  • How have the Russians been using them in Ukraine?
  • What do the supply chains between Iran and Russia look like?
  • Does their use fall under conventional war crimes?
  • How should and could people piloting drones be prosecuted?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!

Guest Profile

Major John Spencer - an expert and advisor on urban warfare currently serving as Chair of the Urban War Studies with Madison Policy Forum, previously doing so at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Patrick Fox - former Air Force Security Forces airman who spent time in a diverse set of roles and achieved a Bachelor's in Political Science from Tennessee State University and Master's in Security from UCL.

Sam Bendett - an Adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans and Programs Center (SP3), where he is a member of the Russia Studies Program. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

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Is the Ethiopian Civil War worsening 2 years on? 10 Nov 202201:02:32

HOORAY!

TGG has reached 20 episodes! Thank you to all who listen and support the show via methods like Patreon - without you this passion of mine would not be possible. 

If you want to support the show you can become a patron at: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit and gain additional perks too!

Episode Outline

For TGG's 20th episode and after 2 years, the Ethiopian Civil War has shown few signs of slowing down or ceasing. In 2021, it was considered the deadliest war in the world.  In this conversation, Pyotr spoke with Will Davison of the International Crisis Group, at the beginning of October - before the major peace talks were successful - to reflect on the past several months and the successes or setbacks facing both sides. Questions in this episode included:

  • How have the conditions changed in Tigray, as well as across other provinces in Ethiopia?
  • What is the role of Eritrea in the conflict and how significant is it? 
  • Have the interferences from others like Turkey or UAE with drones influenced the direction of the war? 
  • What could be a realistic and mutually-acceptable solution for both sides?
  • Could the conflict destabilize the Horn of Africa? 

Guest Profile

Will Davison, is the International Crisis Group's Ethiopia expert. Previously he was Bloomberg’s Ethiopia correspondent from 2010 until 2017 and has also published in The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Al Jazeera, and other international media. In 2018 he founded Ethiopia Insight.

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Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine?20 Oct 202201:28:09

Episode Outline

As the Ukraine War worsens, the threat of nuclear weapons has remained present throughout. Yet, Putin hasn't followed through and so the question remains around the propensity for him to use them, alongside the narratives that emerge on nuclear use more broadly. Alongside scheduled guests, TGG had surprise expert appearances enriching the conversation in the latter half. Questions/themes included: 

  • What are the current conditions around nuclear weapons and the existing treaties? 
  • How does Russia approach nuclear weapons and their treatment compared to the West?
  • What would be the propensity for Putin to use them and how would the West/NATO respond?
  • If Russia did use them, how would that influence other countries who want to pursue nuclear proliferation? 
  • How significant would tactical nuclear weapons be next to strategic ones/ICBMs? 
  • How can we improve the narrative surrounding nuclear weapons? 

Guest Profiles

This episode had the following experts:

Dr. Alexander Bollfrass works as a Senior Researcher at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Security Studies from Princeton University and worked on nuclear issues at Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom, as well as the Stimson Center and the Arms Control Association.

Dr. Nicole Grajewski is a Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A scholar of Russian foreign policy, she holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Dr. Stephen Herzog is senior Research at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies, as well as an Associate of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom. He worked for the Federation of American Scientists and at the U.S. Department of Energy. Stephen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University.

Surprise appearances were also made by:

Heather Williams
, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

Pavel Podvig, a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR. 

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SPECIAL: The Fall of Kabul - 1 year on. With Mariam Wardak, Hasib Noor, and Graeme Smith & Timor Sharan (Crisis Group)06 Oct 202201:36:36

Episode Outline

On August 15th, 2021, the globe witnessed one of the most redefining geopolitical events in a place that in itself reshaped 21st-century foreign and international policy. The fall of Kabul by the Taliban's rapid advance resulted in the US-supported government collapse and the Taliban's takeover, undoing 20 years of progress and rights/freedoms of Afghans. This special panel episode of TGG reflected on the changes to Afghanistan 1 year on. Questions/themes covered include:

  • Since the takeover, and as international attention has shifted elsewhere, how have conditions in Afghanistan changed?
  • What has the return of the Taliban meant for civil society, particularly women?
  • Who, if anyone, has recognized the Taliban or given them legitimacy as a proper government? 
  • If most countries, particularly the West, aren't willing to deal with the Taliban, how should humanitarian support be provided to reduce crises?
  • What threat has Islamic State and its regional branch, ISK posed?
  • Should there be partial engagement with the Taliban if they compromise on their governance and reintroduce them to the global stage? 

Guest Profiles

This special episode how an all-star line-up of experts:

Hasib Noor - a specialist in Sirah and Islamic history, Hasib studied at the Islamic University of Madinah. He is the founder of director of the Legacy Institute and Prophetic Legacy.
Graeme Smith - a senior consultant at International Crisis Group (ICG), Graeme also worked in the UN Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) as a Political Affairs Officer.
Mariam Wardak - a longstanding human rights activist, Mariam has been a leading voice in raising awareness of the struggle of women and girls in Afghanistan. Mariam was also a Senior Advisor to the NSA and Strategic Planning Adviser at the Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
Timor Sharan - a former senior analyst at ICG, Timor is a fellow at the LSE Ideas foreign policy think tank and Founder and Director of the Afghanistan Policy Lab.

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What is it like being part of Ukraine's parliament during the Ukraine-Russia War?23 Sep 202200:53:57

Episode Outline

The rapid and unexpected counteroffensive by Ukraine’s forces has redefined the shape of the war, with mass graves being found around Izyum, and Putin scrambling to mobilize 100,000s of troops which saw Russians fleeing in response. Not to mention the renewed threat of nuclear war. Lesia Vasylenko joined Pyotr to address these and questions including:

  • As the war has evolved, how have the Ukrainian parliament's responsibilities changed?
  • To what extent have the US, UK, or other intel played a decisive role in helping Ukraine with its defense such as by striking the Moskva?
  • Was the Kherson front a feint for the Kharkiv counteroffensive? How much has it helped reinvigorate Ukrainian morale?
  • What role has civil society and social media played in directing the military responses?
  • How should post-war reconstruction efforts be undertaken? How will Russia be ensured to pay reparations while Putin remains in power?

Guest Profile 

Pyotr was joined by Lesia Vasylenko, Ukraine MP of the Voice/Holos Party in the 9th Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada. Lesia is also a member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, President of the Inter-Parliamentary Unions Bureau of Women’s Parliamentarians, and founder of the Legal Hundred, a human rights NGO. During the discussion, Lesia based in Kyiv, mentions that air raid sirens are going on around her, illustrating the very real threat she faces daily, alongside so many Ukrainians from the Russian forces.

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Is there too much reliance on humanitarian organizations in crisis and warzones? 14 Sep 202201:22:32

Episode Outline

With the war in Ukraine set to continue, the impact on humanitarian conditions will persist, especially as the weather worsens. Within all the chaos, humanitarian organizations, charities, and NGOs have been central in trying to support refugees, asylum seekers and IDPs, in states like Poland. Of these, the ICRC has been a leading group as special guest Sebastian Stachowski, and returning expert, Professor Steven Schrage explains. Questions covered include:

  • How have the conditions changed as the war progressed?
  • What has been the response of Ukrainians entering Poland and also local populations receiving them?
  • How has the reputation of some agencies been affected, in light of actions by some like the Red Cross or Amnesty?
  • Is too much pressure or expectation put on NGOs, without substantial support from bigger donors like the UN or EU?
  • Why hasn't there been better coordination between NGOs or relevant stakeholders and what lessons might we take forward?

Episode 16 sees your host Pyotr rejoined by Professor Steven Schrage - of the John's Hopkins SAIS's FPI and former Deputy Assistant Sec of State, and special guest Sebastian Stachowski, a senior officer in the Polish branch of the ICRC, to discuss the evolving humanitarian crisis and responses more broadly from within Poland.  Recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - the 24/7 longest and largest audio room in history, the guests then took a string of questions from the live audience on Clubhouse.

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Are Russia's Tactical Gains Offsetting Its Strategic Setbacks? 08 Jun 202500:31:22

Ukraine’s frontline is holding, but the real battle may be behind closed doors. As peace talks falter, Russian forces regroup, and Western support for Kyiv begins to fray.


In this episode, former UK Defence Attaché John Foreman joins me to unpack the fragile diplomacy, shifting battlefield tactics, and the deeper power struggles shaping the war’s next phase. We explore how Russia’s economy is adapting under sanctions pressure - barely, and why internal shakeups in the Kremlin could point to a regime preparing for escalation, not peace.

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Is maximum pressure or diplomacy better for inducing change in Iran? 03 Sep 202200:54:30

Episode Outline

Ramifications from the Ukraine War are being felt globally. Not merely by intensifying the potential for conflict in other regions, but also by undermining peace and mediation efforts. This is the case with the Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA, which has been at risk and remains controversial to many, including Jason Brodsky. Questions covered this time include: 

  • Since the Ukraine War began, how have sentiments changed around the feasibility and desire for a renewed deal?
  • Is there a genuine appetite for the Iranian Deal or have they been hoping to squeeze the US and others for concessions?  
  • How should we assess the Russian role and positioning in negotiations given their activities and interests elsewhere?
  • Were efforts to renew any deal futile, what would be the best alternative - a new deal or a new sanctions program?  

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews Jason Brodsky, Policy Director of United Against Nuclear Iran, or UANI, since 2016. Previously, he was Research Associate and Advisor to Aaron David Miller at the Wilson Center & Senior Middle East Analyst at Iran International.  Recorded on Twitter Spaces, Jason then takes questions from the live audience who challenge him on some of his points and perspectives raised during his conversation with Pyotr.

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Are we entering a new cold war or multipolar world order? 08 Aug 202201:15:37

Episode Outline

The parallels between Taiwan & Ukraine have been and are continually being made, despite the seemingly obvious differences, largely because of their symbolism in the fight for democracy vs autocracy. And one person, who's devoted a particular amount of focus to the themes of liberalism, democracy, and governance is Francis Fukuyama. Questions he covered with Pyotr include: 

  • How does one compare or apply the theories of liberalism and realism in the current geopolitical climate?
  • To what extent should we be concerned by the growing disassociation between liberalism and democracy? 
  • What role, if any, does the nation-state have in influencing the issue and unpredictabilities surrounding Taiwan? 
  • How much does the West balance supporting Ukraine to uphold democracy vs alienating or compromising domestic unity and exacerbating polarization/isolationism?
  • Should there be a Southeast Asian NATO (re)created like the previous SEATO?
  • What should the USA's prevailing grand strategy be in this new multipolarity? 

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews a world-renowned figure in the form of Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History & the Last Man, but moreover, a political juggernaut who has influenced the discipline, foreign policy, and approaches to areas like international relations, geopolitics, or democratization. Professor Fukuyama is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and former Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of IPE at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS. 

His latest book, Liberalism & its Discontent released in May 2022. He also has a blog, Frankly Fukuyama, on American Purpose. 

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How does Russia's use of the Wagner Group in Libya or Mali compare to Ukraine? 02 Aug 202200:55:20

Episode Outline

The Russian Wagner Group is an infamous private military contractor (PMC) operating in the Ukraine War. However, little is known of them, and so we should look to learn more by looking at their activities elsewhere, including where they first came to light: Libya. These themes were explored with Hafed, with questions such as:

  • Why is the Wagner Group increasingly active in Ukraine and what could their objectives be? 
  • Should we expect the Wagner Group to take a leading role in trying to improve Russian fortunes on the eastern front? 
  • Is there an overlap or similarity in its behavior between Libya and Ukraine?
  • How instrumental have they been in controlling or influencing the direction of food supplies? 

This time, Pyotr is joined by Hafed Al Ghwell, the latest senior fellow of Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) to tackle these questions and more. Hafed is also a Senior Advisor at Maxwell Stamp, an international economic consultancy firm, where he specializes in the Middle East and North Africa political economy issues. He is also a Senior Advisor with Oxford Analytica, the global risk consultancy. 

As usual, the first 40 mins see an interview-styled discussion, followed by a 15 mins Q/A with audience members who were listening live to the conversation, this time recorded on Twitter Spaces. If you want to join next time, be sure to follow Pyotr at @pkurzin to when future events are taking place!

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How bad is the global food crisis and is the UN doing enough? 25 Jul 202200:47:54

Episode Outline

The Russian-Ukraine War has exacerbated the already fragile food insecurity affecting multiple states around the globe. These have driven such questions like:

  • What does the Ukraine-Russia grain deal mean for global food supplies and the crisis?
  • Should we expect this to lead to the potential for a broader ceasefire or peace deal being made? 
  • How does the food crisis, especially in the Middle East, be directly or indirectly affected by the war?
  • How has the deal and the war more widely, influenced the perception/relevancy of the UN?
  • How does climate risk influence food insecurities? What about the role of women specifically?

In this episode, Pyotr attempts to put aside his wonderment as he puts the questions above and more to Sir Mark Lowcock, the former UN UnderSecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator & Head of OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs).  With more than 30 years of humanitarian and development experience, Sir Mark was also Permanent Secretary for the Department for International Development (DFID)leading the UK's humanitarian response to conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria alongside natural disasters.

Sir Mark's book: Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times is available for purchase now!

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