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ariashe.substack.comđ Freight Pulse Daily â December 5, 2025
The definitive daily intelligence briefing for freight executives.
đ§ Macro & Market Pulse
The U.S. economy is growing at a steady but unspectacular pace. S&P Global expects 2026 to be another year where growth continues because of tax cuts, higher government spending, and companies restocking the goods theyâve already sold.
Freight demand follows this same pattern â not shrinking, not booming, just holding steady.
Infrastructure spending is still climbing. Water and sewer construction grew the most. Highway spending dipped only because last yearâs numbers were unusually large. Federal programs like the IIJA are pushing this activity upward through 2025 and 2026, which keeps trucks and trains busy hauling materials like steel, concrete, and large equipment even when other parts of the economy slow.
Across many industries, companies are trying to operate more efficiently. They are cutting unnecessary spending, leaning on AI to manage large amounts of data, reshoring more of their supply chains, and expanding investments in data centers for AI computing.
These changes create steady freight demand because data centers require huge volumes of electrical gear, cooling equipment, and specialized parts.
Layoffs are still elevated. In November, employers announced 71,321 job cuts, and total layoffs so far this year are the highest since 2020. Tech and telecom companies cut the most workers, and hiring plans remain near fifteen-year lows, according to a report from Challenger, Grey and Christmas (sorry no one named Hanukkah works there).
This hurts consumer spending, which reduces parcel and retail freight, but it also pushes companies toward more automation and efficiency investments â which adds demand for certain types of industrial freight.
Consumers are still focusing on essentials rather than big or optional purchases. Dollar General says shoppers are visiting more often but spending mainly on basic goods.
Overall, the macro environment points toward steady, middle-of-the-road freight levels rather than a big upswing or downturn.
đ Truckload Market
Ryder reports that the long freight recession hasnât ended â but it has stopped getting worse. Their rental truck activity is steady, used-truck prices have flattened, and truck utilization sits around 70%, which is below their preferred level of 75% or higher. This means the trucking market still has more capacity than demand.
Ryder tracks indicators like industrial production, consumer spending, housing, and a model called Active Truck Utilization (ATU). ATU is running around 94â95%, which is close to normal but not high enough to cause tighter capacity or rising rates. Since none of these indicators are improving quickly, truckload rates are likely to stay soft into early 2026.
Inside this slow, uneven market, carriers are beginning to reshape their networks. CRST just made one of the bigger moves, announcing that it will shift about 100 trucks out of the one-way truckload division into other parts of its business and retire roughly 200 trucks altogether. Thatâs less than 4% of the companyâs 4,300-truck logistics portfolio. CRST said it wants to focus capacity where it actually creates value for customers.
Changes like this always come with harder news. More than 300 employees were notified this week, many of them drivers. CRST says it plans to work with affected drivers to move them into other company fleets, but itâs still another sign of how carriers are adjusting to a freight market that hasnât fully recovered.
At the same time, CRST points out that it just logged its best quarter since 2022, thanks to a dedicated fleet, high-value specialized hauling, final-mile operations, a major flatbed and van network, and a growing brokerage arm.
In a choppy market, CRST is leaning on the parts of its business that have real staying power.
Together, these forces paint a clear picture: truckload remains at the bottom of the cycle, but the pieces are in place for a future tightening once demand improves.
đ Intermodal & Rail
Intermodal freight is dealing with the same slow-moving conditions as truckload. Industrial production is not rising, consumer spending is cautious, and the market still has plenty of extra capacity. Until factory output improves, intermodal volumes are likely to stay flat.
But there is one strong bright spot: data centers. Because AI computing requires enormous power and specialized hardware, companies are building data centers everywhere. Each one requires massive shipments of racks, cooling systems, transformers, fiber equipment, and construction materials. This is one of the most reliable sources of growth for intermodal and carload over the next several years.
For now, intermodal remains steady but quiet. Data-center expansion is key, but itâs also specialized and expensive, so rail will have to sell itself against trucking to capture some of the opportunities.
âď¸ Air Cargo & Parcel
Passenger air travel has bounced back strongly. Alaska Air says bookings recovered quickly after the government shutdown, and the airlineâs premium credit card is performing better than expected. When more people fly, airlines operate more passenger flights â and those flights create more belly space for cargo, which increases airfreight capacity and puts downward pressure on rates.
Descartes, a logistics technology company, reports record revenue because global trade rules and tariffs have become more complicated. Businesses need better tools to navigate customs, sanctions, and trade documentation. This kind of technology helps parcel and air carriers reduce delays and improve routing.
Overall, air and parcel demand is mixed: essentials are steady, but discretionary goods remain weak, and expanding passenger capacity keeps air cargo space plentiful.
đł Ocean & Global Trade Dynamics
Western Europe is seeing better local consumer demand, but its exports to the U.S. may weaken because of stronger currencies and higher tariffs.
Chinaâs economy is expected to slow in 2026, mostly because its export growth is cooling. Even so, China continues gaining trade influence in developing countries, which keeps many supply chains connected to Chinese manufacturing. U.S. companies will keep shifting some sourcing elsewhere, but China remains a major hub.
Texas, meanwhile, is becoming one of the worldâs biggest battlegrounds for electricity demand. Data centers there have requested 226 gigawatts of new load â a massive number that far exceeds expected power generation. Texas has begun approving new gas plants and tougher transparency laws to handle this surge.
These projects require heavy equipment shipped by ocean and rail, such as turbines, switchgear, and transformers.
đ Construction & Manufacturing
Infrastructure construction remains one of the strongest areas of the U.S. economy. Spending on water systems, power infrastructure, bridges, and transportation keeps rising, and federal programs are still distributing large amounts of funding. These projects generate steady freight demand, especially for flatbed and heavy-haul carriers moving steel, rebar, and equipment.
Corporate strategy trends toward cutting unnecessary operations, investing in automation, improving supply-chain resilience, and building or expanding data analysis. These choices support freight tied to reshoring, industrial inputs, and energy projects rather than consumer goods.
Lear says the auto industry is performing better than expected in Q4, even after setbacks like a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover and a fire at a major supplier. Auto production staying steady keeps parts and components moving through trucking and rail networks.
Donaldson reports record sales in filtration and industrial products, showing that demand in food, beverage, and tech-related manufacturing remains stable. This supports consistent freight activity in these categories.
Construction and manufacturing continue to anchor freight demand while other sectors soften.
⥠TL;DR â Summary for Shippers
* The U.S. economy is steady, not booming, which keeps freight levels stable.
* Truckload is still in a slump but no longer falling; pricing stays sluggish â up slightly, maybe core inflation at best across the US.
* Parcel and air cargo are mixed, with essentials strong and discretionary weak.
* Ocean trade shifts as Europe faces tariff pressure and China slows.
* Infrastructure and manufacturing remain the most dependable sources of freight.
* Job cuts, automation, and stricter driver rules may tighten capacity over time.
𧞠Authorship Note
This report was built with help from an AI model that reviewed and summarized information from economic reports, company filings, transcripts, and other publicly available documents. Itâs meant to help readers understand freight trends â not to give financial, legal, or business advice. Please double-check any data or conclusions before making decisions. Neither the author nor the AI provider guarantees accuracy or timing, and both disclaim responsibility for any losses that might come from relying on this information.
