Explore every episode of the podcast The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

Participants 

Dr Hannah Randolph (Economist, FAI)

Prof Mairi Spowage (Director, FAI)

Jack Evans (Senior Policy Advisor, JRF)

Time stamps

(0:22) Who wants to work across Scotland 

(3:24) Child poverty and supporting parents into work 

(8:09) Why focus on "people who want to work"?

(13:29) How we talk about labour market status

(19:26) Surveys and other sources of labour market information 

(26:55) What's next?

 

 

 

00:00:08 – 00:00:35
Introduction to podcast, guests, and research topic (community supervision & re-offending).

00:00:35 – 00:01:24
Overview of pressures on the criminal justice system: court backlogs and causes.

00:01:24 – 00:02:20
Prison overcrowding explained and current capacity issues.

00:02:20 – 00:03:14
Early release schemes and their limited long-term impact on prison population.

00:03:14 – 00:04:00
Future outlook and policy pressure (Institute for Government concerns).

00:03:36 – 00:04:27
New sentencing bill: shift toward community supervision and reduced prison time.

00:04:27 – 00:05:22
Lack of evidence on effectiveness of community supervision and motivation for study.

00:05:22 – 00:06:28
Data challenges and introduction to MoJ “Data First” initiative and linked datasets.

00:06:28 – 00:07:02
Scale and capability of the linked offender dataset.

00:07:02 – 00:08:25
Why older data is used and need for causal evidence (bias in simple comparisons).

00:08:25 – 00:10:20
Explanation of natural experiments vs randomized experiments.

00:10:20 – 00:11:13
Introduction to the 2015 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA).

00:11:13 – 00:13:02
Natural experiment setup: cutoff date creates comparable supervised vs unsupervised groups.

00:13:02 – 00:14:21
Method: comparing re-offending outcomes across groups using linked data.

00:14:21 – 00:15:46
What community supervision involves (probation, restrictions, rehabilitation focus).

00:16:02 – 00:17:09
Main findings: supervision reduces re-offending (short-term impact).

00:17:09 – 00:17:30
Long-term effects: persistent reduction in re-offending even after supervision ends.

00:17:30 – 00:18:44
Who benefits most: stronger effects for first-time prisoners.

00:18:44 – 00:19:27
Why effects fade over time and importance of supervision duration.

00:19:27 – 00:21:00
Effects for repeat/prolific offenders and role of recall to prison (incapacitation effect).

00:21:00 – 00:22:18
Behavioural mechanisms and role of recall threat.

00:22:18 – 00:23:34
Context: high baseline re-offending rates; supervision helps but isn’t a silver bullet.

00:23:34 – 00:25:37
Policy implications: supervision vs prison and impact on overcrowding.

00:25:37 – 00:26:05
Long-term benefits via preventing repeat offending among first-timers.

00:26:05 – 00:27:37
Where to find research outputs (ADR UK, blog, dashboard).

In the final episode of our election analysis series, Mairi Spowage and João Sousa of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Ed Poole and Guto Ifan of the Wales Governance Centre come together to discuss what the results of the elections in Wales and Scotland mean for governing arrangements, and what the next steps are in the Senedd and Scottish Parliament sessions. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

**Please note that this recording is in Welsh - check out our other podcast episodes and our websites for analysis in English.** This is a recording of the event held by the Wales Governance Centre in Bangor on 21 April, discussing the main talking points in the Senedd election. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:14) Income tax proposals

(6:21) Land transaction tax

(9:12) Spending proposals on childcare

(12:36) Costings of proposals

(18:00) Crown Estate devolution

(21:43) Social security devolution

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:18) Rows about costings publications in Wales

(6:06) Costings publications in Scotland

(9:56) The effect of List PR on the manifesto contents

(14:30) Current vs capital block grants

(16:52) What we can expect in the coming week

Timestamps:

(0:06) Introductions

(1:57) Health's place in the Welsh Government's budget

(5:48) Performance of the Welsh NHS

(10:51) Productivity challenges

(15:31) The challenges of moving to a prevention model

 

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(0:46) The level of detail of the manifestos

(9:47) Costings in the manifestos

(16:44) The SNP's food price cap

(18:39) Reform's plan to bring in half a million people into the labour market

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:20) Reflections from the event in Bangor

(2:49) Reflections from the event in Edinburgh

(5:31) Mutual investment model and proposals in Wales

(8:09) Fiscal framework

(13:27) Appetite for further devolution of income tax in Wales

(17:19) Council tax revaluation

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:55) Tuition fees and the higher education funding landscape in Scotland

(11:59) The future sustainability of Scotland's universities

(14:29) Further education funding in Scotland

Timestamps

(0:05) Introductions

(0:42) Health spending over the last Scottish Parliament term

(7:59) The increase in procurement spending

(11:12) Parties' proposals for health

(19:31) The National Care Service bill

(25:42) Parties' proposals for adult social care

(00:00) Welcome and episode overview
(01:02) Meet Ed Roddis and Lesley Smillie
(03:44) What is the State of the State report?
(10:11) The big takeaway for Scotland in an election year
(11:32) Public priorities: cost of living, healthcare and immigration
(18:44) How Scotland compares with the rest of the UK
(21:06) Public satisfaction with services and pressure on the NHS
(29:14) The mood among public sector leaders
(36:19) Is there a real opportunity for public service reform?
(38:04) AI, digital transformation and the future of public services

Timestamps

(0:06) Introductions

(1:27) The SNP price cap plan for 'essential' foods

(5:28) The campaign in Wales this week and the Welsh Lib Dems manifesto

(7:07) Tax policy and unwillingness to confront fiscal trade-offs

(11:20) The remaining Scottish manifestos from the week

(15:13) What's been left unsaid

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:25) Scotland's child poverty targets

(5:15) Devolved and reserved social security systems

(8:32) Child poverty delivery plan

(13:00) Scottish Child Payment

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introduction and the overall funding challenge

(3:30) The wider role of universities in local economies

(6:33) International students

(9:49) Difference in funding between Wales and the rest of the UK

(19:44) Proposals from the different parties so far

Timestamps

(0:06) Introductions

(1:00) Welsh developments: Plaid Cymru and Welsh Green Party manifestos

(2:26) Childcare proposals in Wales

(8:49) Scottish developments: Scottish Conservatives manifesto

(17:16) Efficiency proposals in Scotland

Timestamps

(00:05) Introduction and the current state of childcare policy in Wales

(4:14) Why the government intervenes in this area

(7:53) Differences between Welsh provision with the rest of the UK

(14:41) Trade-offs between universal and more targeted approaches

(19:04) The effect of policy objectives on childcare policy design

Participants

Prof Stephen Sinclair, GCU & SPIRU 
Hannah Randolph, FAI 
Spencer Thompson, FAI 

Time stamps

(1:10) Latest child poverty statistics
(4:45) Changes to the Family Resources Survey
(12:00) Final child poverty delivery plan
(16:10) Child poverty targets
(23:20) More on data revisions
(25:30) Scale of actions in the delivery plan and distance to the 2030 targets
(30:15) A time for optimism

Timestamps:

(0:06) Evolution of funding during the last Parliamentary term

(7:13) Income tax policy and divergence from the rest of the UK

(13:39) Public sector pay and pressure on the Scottish Budget

Timestamps:

(0:05) Introductions

(1:00) The Welsh Government's funding landscape in the last few years and the Barnett formula.

(5:31) Claims about the "largest ever settlement" and how meaningful those are

(12:09) Differences in funding between Wales and England

Timestamps

(00:07) Introductions

(00:40) The project and why we are doing it

(03:35) Highlights from the Welsh setting the scene report

(05:55) Similarities and differences relative to Scotland

(10:44) Issues in the campaign in Scotland: taxes, health service

(12:05) Comparison with issues in Wales

(14:33) Public sector pay and efficiency

(16:58) Capital spending outlook

Participants

Hannah Randolph - Fellow, FAI

Allison Catalano - Fellow, FAI & SHERU

Spencer Thompson - Senior Fellow, FAI & SHERU

Time stamps

(0:25) What is No One Left Behind and how is it structured? 

(4:10) Localised services and decision-making

(9:10) Outcomes and prevention under No One Left Behind

(18:45) Prioritisation

(22:15) Data and evaluation

 

This episode is the latest in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.

(00:00) Welcome and episode overview
(00:57) Meet Paul Lawrence and Phil Cragg
(06:20) Why Edinburgh matters to Scotland’s economy
(11:42) Edinburgh’s regional economy and city region approach
(14:09) The constraints on growth: housing, affordability and space
(17:46) Why Edinburgh stands out as an AI city
(20:47) AI opportunity and labour market risk
(28:07) Can AI improve public services?
(38:39) Universities, talent and Edinburgh’s innovation ecosystem

This episode is the latest in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. This collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.

(00:00) Cyber + AI: why this matters now (Cyber Scotland Week)
(01:12) Meet the guests: Deloitte + ScotlandIS / Cyber Scotland Partnership
(01:51) What “cyber resilience” really means (it’s not just IT)
(04:07) Scotland’s cyber ecosystem: what ScotlandIS + the Partnership do
(07:03) Cyber careers: the roles people don’t realise exist
(09:11) Scotland’s cyber skills gap (and why it’s still here)
(14:06) AI in cyber: big benefits, new risks, and trust issues
(19:02) AI adoption 101: start with the problem (not the hype)
(30:41) Building the talent pipeline: schools, placements & real pathways in
(41:05) The future: new roles, diversity, and what needs to change next

(00:00) - Welcome + what we’re covering (survey + energy transition investment)
(04:20) - SNIB explained: mission-led impact investing + how they operate
(09:47) - Survey headlines: opportunity vs uncertainty (2030/2050 confidence gap)
(12:27) - Risk, returns, and what’s investable (mature tech, “comparable returns”)
(17:44) - What’s blocking progress: grid, planning/consenting, enabling infrastructure
(28:30) - Scotland context + role of public capital (reserved powers, NWF/GB Energy, crowding-in)
(40:31) - Momentum signals + what needs to happen next
(47:42) - Closing + wrap-up and links

Timestamps

(0:30) Overview of the Scottish budget

(5:02) Fiscal sustainability 

(10:28) Clarity of planned transfers between portfolios

(14:00) Future spending plans

(00:00) - Introduction

(03:22) - Rationale for the Policy

(04:40) - Glasgow City Council's Evidence

(06:45) - Emissions & Air Quality

(10:23) - Piecemeal Approach to Implementation

(11:37) - Concerns of Businesses & Residents

(16:19) - Using Revenue Raised

Timestamps: 

0:30 Budget expectations, OBR leak, and response 

4:29 Lifting of the two-child limit on the child element of Universal Credit

10:23 Clearing confusion around child benefit, two-child limit, and the benefit cap

14:01 Freezing tax thresholds

19:25 Smorgasbord of smaller taxes 

28:26 Spencer reflects on his first Budget with the FAI

 

This episode explores whether the energy sector – and particularly the North East of Scotland – is at a genuine turning point. The conversation looks at how a “just transition” could play out for workers and supply chains as the North Sea continues to decline, and how policy choices over the next five to seven years could mean either many more jobs in offshore energy or a sharp loss of capacity and capability. The guests unpack the idea of an “energy workforce”, not tied to a single fuel, and discuss how companies are increasingly global, chasing projects and moving people across borders while trying to stay agile in a volatile market.

Alongside that, they dig into the UK’s shifting tax regime in the North Sea, the impact of the windfall levy, the challenges of the current investment climate, and the added frictions from employment law changes and immigration policy. New modelling shows that the pace of decline in oil and gas could have material economic impacts, especially for Scotland and the North East, where offshore activity underpins a large share of jobs and GVA. Despite the risks and recent redundancies, the tone ends up cautiously optimistic: with clearer policy, better signalling from government and the right incentives, the UK still has the chance to turn its existing strengths – workforce, supply chain and North Sea assets – into a world-class, net zero-focused energy powerhouse.

This episode is the fifth in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. Culminating in a landmark event in March 2026, this collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.

Timestamps
(00:00) - (04:30) - Welcome, context & guest introductions
(04:30) - (12:30) - Is the energy sector at a turning point? – “Striking the Balance”
(12:30) - (21:00) - From oil & gas to an “energy workforce” and a global supply chain
(21:00) - (31:30) - Investment climate and the North Sea fiscal regime
(31:30) - (38:00) - Employment rights, immigration policy and agility
(38:00) - (42:00) - Economic modelling: managed vs accelerated decline
(42:00) - (45:41) - Lessons from 2015, current mood & reasons for optimism

The full transcript is available here.

 

(06:25) Setting the Scene: Sector Snapshot & Data Challenges - Opening context, series aims, and the recurring measurement/data issues in the sector.
(11:43) — Jobs & Output: 47k Roles and £15.5bn Activity - Headline figures and what they signal about deployment and momentum.
(17:02) — Beyond Either/Or: Oil & Gas and Renewables Together - Why “one rises as the other falls” is a false dichotomy; the supply-chain reality.
(22:20) — Grid, Supply Chain & Investor Confidence - Electrification, grid buildout, portfolio procurement, and the need to secure volume.(27:39) — Communities & Skills: Place-Based Opportunities - Thriving industries mean thriving communities; skills pathways and careers.
(32:57) — Regional Tour: Inverness, Ardrishaig & the ‘Electric Highway’ - Examples of local investments and EV-enabled connectivity.
(38:15) — Shetland & Viking Wind: Community Stakes and Lessons -Decarbonisation at Sullom Voe and community participation challenges around Viking.
(48:52) — Reality Check Since 2022: Costs, Pace and What’s Next - How rising input costs and programme pace shape near-term priorities and delivery.

In the final episode of our Key Figures series Mairi Spowage speaks to Professor in Economics at the Adam Smith Business School, and previous director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, Graeme Roy.

Our next episode of Key Figures features the esteemed David Bell, Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling and a core original member of the Fraser of Allander Institute.

In the third installment of our Key Figures series, Mairi Spowage speaks to Kim Swales and Peter McGregor: two economists who were director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at various times, and instrumental to our longstanding work in CG modelling.

In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover her life, the origins of the Institute, and her thoughts on the rapidly changing economic landscape in Scotland.

Clarification 15/9/25 -  Victor Bulmer-Thomas did not resign as Director of Chatham House in 2003 over the Iraq war. He left at the end of 2006, although he did author a paper on Blair's foreign policy that was very critical of the invasion. 

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Dr João Sousa - Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Time stamps

(0:40) What pressures does the chancellor face ahead of the autumn budget statement?

(8:30) Prospects for improved economic conditions

(11:00) Potential policy changes in the Autumn Budget statement

(17:00) Impact on the Scottish budget process

 

(00:25) Price changes after removal

(01:37) Reasoning behind peak fares and removal  

(03:23) Learning from the peak fares removal pilot

(06:00) What policies might shift commuters away from cars?  

(08:47) Alternatives to rail travel

(10:57) Policy costs and potential for financial neutrality 

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Allison Catalano - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU)

Time stamps

(00:06) Introduction

(01:20) What is the LFS and what are the issues it's been having? 

(6:57) Alternative data sources for understanding the labour market

(18:23) Misunderstandings around what's happened in the post-pandemic labour market

(19:39) ONS changes to improve the quality of the LFS

(23:40) How poor employment statistics may impact local decision-making

(27:49) Information about FAI 50th anniversary conference

(00:29) What is GERS and why is it important?

(10:19) What do the latest figures tell us and what factors are driving changes?

(14:23) What were our thoughts on the Scottish Government response?

(25:51) How likely is GERS to feature in the upcoming general election?

04:27 - What does the UK innovation survey say about innovation in Scotland?

07:10 - Is there really a decline in innovation across Scotland? 

12:00 - Is business investment in Scotland really less than rest of UK?

15:44 - Product innovation versus process innovation

21:00 - How do skills shortages affect innovation?

24: 00 - How does company size affect innovation?

27:04 - How can businesses collaborate with universities to address skills development?

29:00 - Where is the policy environment in Scotland when it comes to innovation?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(00:38) What is the Scottish Business Monitor?

(02:44) What business types are represented and what is the sample size?

(04:28) Has poor business sentiment from Q1 2025 recovered in Q2?

(06:50) What changes have we seen based on the changes to employer national insurance contributions?

(08:37) What does business sentiment look like for 2026?

(11:26) What factors are contributing to current business sentiment?

 

Timestamps

(00:23) What is congestion charging?

(02:59) Exemptions

(04:49) Similarities with LEZs

(07:10) Timing of charges

(10:26) Use of discounts & revenue

(14:54) Clyde Tunnel Toll

(16:26) Edinburgh’s failed proposal

(20:13) Other UK charges

(21:43) Effectiveness of congestion charges

(23:37) Glasgow’s public transport system

(25:57) Public attitudes

Timestamps: 

(01:55) The Social Policy Association (SPA) and the East Asian Social Policy Research Network (EASP)

(04:15) The Hospitality Sector – Serving the Future Project 

(07:30) Learning Disabilities & Employment 

(10:30) Child Poverty 

(14:40) Housing & Health 

(19:10) Labour One Year in Office: Tax Policy & Wealth Taxes? 

(24:30) Key Takeaways from the Conference 

Yesterday, the Scottish Government published their medium-term financial strategy, which kicks off the Scottish Budget process. Hannah Randolph is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage to share their reactions. (2:08) What does the medium-term financial strategy do? (8:47) Financial strategy across spending areas (18:04) Public sector reform (25:06) Looking ahead to the Scottish spending review

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:20) History of the FAI

(5:30) FAI conference plans

(10:15) Parliamentary reception plans

(11:40) Where to find more information about the FAI 50th

Introduction

 

What are investors saying? 03:43

 

Why is policy certainty so important? 10:27

 

Energy companies versus energy investors: 13:05

 

Where should government focus on? 17:52

 

Why the grid is so important? 24:42

 

Importance of effective carbon pricing regime: 31:04

 

Policy Responses from UK and Scottish Government: 42:11

 

PARTICIPANTS 

Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Joao Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

TIMESTAMPS 

(00:30) A summary of the spending review announcements 

(08:00) What did we hear on capital investment? 

(11:50) What were the announcements on day-to-day expenditure? 

(21:14) What are the implications on Scotland from the spending review? 

(26:50) What has changed for the Medium Term Financial Strategy? 

(35:30) How important is the spending review going forward? 

Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(00:38) What do the latest child poverty statistics say?

(01:49) What was JRF's reaction to the stats?

(03:09) Can we see an impact from Scottish Child Payment?

(06:09) How do we achieve the 2030 targets from here?

(09:24) Modelling of options to meet 2030 targets

(12:57) What about cost?

(19:27) How might UK Government proposed benefits changes impact poverty levels?

(23:30) How will the changes impact Scotland's finances?

(25:41) What happens in Scotland if the work capability assessment is replaced by the PIP assessment?

(28:20) What's next for child poverty analysis at the FAI and JRF?

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:30) Economic conditions leading up to the spring statement

(16:15) What announcements were made and how do they affect Scotland?

(21:10) OBR estimates for policy costs and savings

(30:25) What fiscal policy changes might we expect later this year?

(37:40) What are the UK's prospects for growth? 

PARTICIPANTS

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Angela Mitchell, Senior Partner for Scotland & Northern Ireland, Deloitte
Lesley McEwan, Director in Deloitte's Infrastructure and Capital Programme Team, Deloitte

TIMESTAMPS

(10:50 ) What purposes could public land be put to?
(14:10) Taking the demand to the supply – data centres
(15:40) Grid infrastructure issues must still be tackled
(16:40) Digital opportunities
(19:23) Threats and opportunities from AI, including smart cities
(22:28) What can Scotland learn from other cities around the world
(24:30) A key role for research and academia
(25:23) Power hungry AI
(26:50) Use of digital and AI for public service reform
(29:57) Civil service efficiency
(31:50) Economic impact of these opportunities, including employment