Explore every episode of the podcast The DIY Investing Podcast
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A lot of time is spent on buying stocks. Yet, almost just as important, if not more is knowing when to sell stocks.
I find this area relatively underexplored, so I want to begin a long-term series on selling stocks from the framework of a value investor.
Previously talked about selling in a single episode on Ep. 106
Today’s focus: Strategy matters
There is no one-size fits all approach
How you buy stocks will influence how you sell them
Your portfolio allocation strategy will matter
THe number of stocks you review in a year will matter
Whether you plan to own a cash position or not will matter.
Excluded from this series:
Won’t be discussing momentum investing
Won’t be discussing trading or technical analysis investing (except as a marginal part of value investing when relevant)
Entire focus assumes that you are a value investor of some sort (whether deep value, compounder, graham value, quality, etc…)
Deep Value:
Buy at 2/3rds of value and sell at “full price”
Compounders:
You want to hold for a long-time.
Sell when compounding ends, plateaus or you were wrong
Net-Nets
Hold a year then reassess
Waterfall Stocks:
Hold so long as dividend yield is sufficient to provide target return
Dividend Growth Investing:
Buy companies that pay dividends and grow them and sell them when they cut or eliminate their dividends
Buy and Hold
“Never sell”
Works for a subset of stocks
Tends to overlap well with compounders and Dividend Growth investing
127 - Scuttlebutt on Overlooked Companies
06 Feb 2022
00:37:28
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Scuttlebutt
Quality Investing
Capital Stack
Dark Stocks
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Scuttlebutt on Overlooked Companies - Areas of Focus
Capital Stack:
Clean is better. Ideally only common stock.
No lending to insiders or other self dealing.
Has management issued themselves options in the past? Were the prices reasonable? How much of the company does this represent?
"Overdue or delayed payment to insiders."
Red flag. This basically menas the company is in default putting your equity at risk. Can't even really mount a proxy fight because the management could force the company into bankruptcy.
Filings:
Current or pink limited on filings with the SEC
I want to see financials. (They don't have to be audited)
Some sort of management commentary is nice. (Shows shareholder friendliness)
Business Model:
Change
New products
New management
Growth of some kind
Asset Base:
Ideally assts to cover the market cap (providing a margin of safety)
Earnings Power:
Profitable (every year for 10 years, no more than one loss in 10 years)
Summary:
Overlooked companies are often cheap. Therefore, scuttlebutt on overlooked companies needs to focus on filtering for the quality of the business. High-quality and cheap makes for a great stock. Look for abnormal signs of positive potential.
37 - Liquidity: Risks and Opportunities
28 Jul 2019
00:47:38
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Liquidity
Risk
Insurance
First Principles
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Someone or something that creates or suggests a hazard
The chance of loss or the probability of loss
The chance that an investment (such as a stock or commodity) will lose value
What this should suggest to you is that there are many different types of risk.
This is especially true for investing risk. Each type deserves its own discussion and it would be a mistake to believe that
Two Key Elements to risk:
Uncertainty,
Negative Event
Liquidity Risks
Personal
Value of an Emergency Fund
Value of Life Insurance
Investment
Liquidity Risk - Time to receive your money back in cash
More liquid stocks reduce liquidity risk
Opportunities offered by Liquidity
Personal
Large sums of cash provide flexibility
Move across the country
Make investments
Get a good deal on a car
Investment
Liquidity Opportunity - Less liquid stocks tend to have higher returns than high liquidity stocks
When is Liquidity Important?
Time-Bound: On the personal side, liquidity is important when you need to spend a large sum of money. Can either be planned for or it is an emergency.
When you want to sell: On the investment side, liquidity is important only when you sell a stock. You don't really care about liquidity when you are purchasing a stock. The key point is that you want to be able to sell a stock at a price close to its fair value at the time you determine you need to sell.
If done optimally, you can buy illiquid stocks during your buying period and when yous ell them, they will have transitioned into liquid stocks.
Liquidity First Principle:
More liquid stocks are better than less liquid stocks because they reduce liquidity risk.
"All else Equal" Considerations:
Unfortunately, this statement is only true when we can rely on everything else being equal.
In practice, less liquid stocks tend to have higher returns.
Therefore, you really have to make a tradeoff. Would you rather have low liquidity and high returns or high liquidity and low returns?
The reason this first principles still holds true is that there may be circumstances where high liquidity can offer high potential returns. When that occurs, it would be preferable to low liquidity options.
Summary
Liquidity is a topic that offers both risks and opportunities. Lack of liquidity is fraught with risk, especially in your personal life. However, a lack of liquidity can offer many opportunities when it comes to investment potential. You should manage your liquidity risk across all spectrums of your life such that you can receive optimal returns with minimal risk of a total loss of principal.
36 - What is Risk? Price Risk, Volatility, and Beta (Types of Investing Risk)
21 Jul 2019
00:26:56
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Velocity - Direction matters
Relative vs Absolute measures
Volatility / Beta
Risk
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Shorter Holding Periods are Better (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
Someone or something that creates or suggests a hazard
The chance of loss or the probability of loss
The chance that an investment (such as a stock or commodity) will lose value
What this should suggest to you is that there are many different types of risk.
This is especially true for investing risk. Each type deserves its own discussion and it would be a mistake to believe that
Two Key Elements to risk:
Uncertainty,
Negative Event
Volatility / Beta - the size of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in a security's value. (Reference: Investopedia)
Problems: the definition of volatility is based solely on the size of fluctuation.
The more volatile the stock, the riskier the stock. However, this fails to account for only negative volatility. Instead, you can calculate high volatility for a stock that goes up quickly. This would not be a risk though. High returns are the exact opposite of risk.
Often used as a relative measure. Relative measures are not useful to an individual investor, because all they care about is their own personal results. The focus should be on absolute results.
Price Risk - The potential for short-term downside fluctuations in stock price below the intrinsic value of the company and below your purchase price
Focus is only on the downside
Highlights the importance of price fluctuations being short-term in nature
Price relative to intrinsic value is what matters
Price relative to your purchase price is important solely for the psychological harm it can cause if you lack the proper temperament for long-term investing.
Unavoidable - present in all investments
Can be mitigated by only purchasing stocks below their intrinsic value. Purchasing overvalued companies will increase your price risk.
Summary
Risk involves two key elements: Uncertainty and Negative Events. Volatility and Beta are false measures of investments and make key errors in their assumptions. They measure both upside and downside price movements as risk and they equate stock prices to stock values. You should ignore calculated measures of volatility in your investment decisions. Price risk is the key focus. Price risk is the potential for short-term downside fluctuations in stock price below the intrinsic value of the company and below your purchase price. You can mitigate price risk by only buying companies below their calculated intrinsic value.
35 - Shorter Holding Periods are better (Investing First Principle)
14 Jul 2019
00:37:10
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Reversion to the Mean
Moats
First Principles
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Shorter Holding Periods are Better (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
Hypothetical Question: Would you rather earn a 10% return in one year or ten years?
To clarify: I don’t mean compound annual return, but total return.
Would you rather earn a total of 10% return in one year or in ten years?
When phrased in this manner, the answer should be obvious. (One year)
The shorter the holding period, the better, all else equal.
When you hold total return constant, you want to earn that return in the shortest period possible.
“All Else Equal” considerations - There are a lot of them
Long-term thinking is critical for successful investing
Difference between CAGR and Total Return
The methods by which you earn a high long-term CAGR might be different from how you achieve a short-term high total return
In the end, the long-term is made up of many short-term periods
Value vs Growth Investing perhaps?
I consider all investing to be value investing
However, traditional Benjamin Graham value investing was the result of harnessing the power of mean reversion to earn high total returns over short time frames of 3-5 years.
Net-Nets strategy
Buying at a 30-35% discount to fair value and selling when the stock price reaches fair value after a 50% gain. (The shorter time period over which this occurs, the most profitable the investment)
Warren Buffett is an advocate of buy-and-hold and his returns are driven by long-term growth investments in earnings over time.
Focus on High Quality
The longer that high profitable growth of earnings per share, the higher the returns.
Returns are driven by moats and high ROIIC.
Summary
Shorter holding periods for the same total return result in better investments. The key question: Is the brevity of your holding period within your control. I would argue it is NOT. While reversion to the mean is powerful and can be a huge driver of high returns, you should always make investments with a long-term time horizon. As Warren Buffett would advise, don’t invest in a company if you aren’t willing to hold it for ten years.
34 - Companies with no debt are better than companies with debt (Investing First Principle)
07 Jul 2019
00:18:52
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Potential Energy vs Kinetic Energy
Leverage
All Else Equal
First Principles
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Companies with no debt are better than companies with debt (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
There is a concept in physics called potential energy and kinetic energy.
The basic explanation is that potential energy is the energy available in an object to perform work. Meanwhile, kinetic energy is a measure of the current energy an object possesses due to its motion.
Example: Water held in a lake behind a dam. (A lot of potential energy) This energy can be used to produce electricity if the water is allowed to flow through turbines at the bottom of the dam. Yet, once the water is released, the potential energy no longer exists. Instead, it has been converted to kinetic energy, creating motion, and electricity. You’ve used up potential future gain for the benefit of the present.
How does this apply to companies and investing?
A company without debt is like water held in a lake behind a dam. It has a lot of potential energy. When a company has no debt, there is the possibility of adding debt in the future in order to increase earnings and therefore returns.
However, a company with large amounts of debt is like water already past the dam. There is no longer any potential to quickly increase earnings by taking on additional debt. Instead, you have to “PAY” cash to reduce debt if you’d like to gain additional potential energy in the future.
In our water example, this would be analogous to pumping the water back uphill to put it behind the dam again.
Debt also increases risk
Companies without debt or liabilities cannot go bankrupt.
However, the presence of debt creates the possibility of bankruptcy.
When you own companies with medium or high levels of debt, you are taking on the risk of permanent wipeout of your capital due to bankruptcy.
While the additional return is possible due to leverage, your risk is inherently higher.
Debt creates automatic forced future payments
The value of a company is the net present value of future cash flows available to be paid to you in dividends.
If a company has debt, any earnings in the future must first be used to make interest and principal payments on the debt, before you can receive any dividends.
By owning companies that use debt to earn higher returns, you are allowing debt holders to have the first claim on future cash flows.
“All Else Equal” considerations
Debt creates leverage - While leverage can be dangerous it can also provide benefits. It is possible that the leveraging effects of debt can allow a company to increase its returns.
This is why I use the term “all else equal.” You need to compare apples to apples.
If a company provides 10% returns with no debt, this is inherently better than a company that provides 10% returns while holding large amounts of debt. The debt-free company is lower risk.
This investing first principle doesn’t apply if you are trying to compare a 10% returning debt-free company to a 20% returning high debt company. That’s not a fair comparison.
Summary
Companies without debt are better investments than companies with debt, all else equal. While debt can provide the benefits of leverage, you must never forget the risks. If debt-free companies offer returns that exceed your discount rate, then you should always prefer them over debt-laden companies.
33 - Low stock prices are better than high stock prices (Investing First Principle)
30 Jun 2019
00:23:02
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Margin of Safety
Price vs Value
Time Value of Money
All Else Equal
First Principles
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Low stock prices are better than high stock prices (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
It is preferable to purchase stocks at low stock prices for 2 key reasons
The margin of safety is higher (What happens if you are wrong)
Potential Return is higher (What happens if you are right)
Relationship between Price and Value
Value investing, at its core, is all about purchasing assets for less than they are worth.
Price represents what you pay
Value is what you receive
Obviously, the lower the price you pay, the better the outcome. (Regardless of the value you actually receive)
"All Else Equal" considerations
Time Value of Money - You can’t directly compare the stock prices across time. (ie. today versus the stock price one year ago.) It’s quite possible that it makes sense to pay a higher price today than it did a year ago if the value has increased.
Variable Business Quality - Some businesses are of higher quality than others. You can’t directly compare one company’s P/E ratio to that of another. A high-quality business might be worth 20x P/E while another business is only worth 10x P/E. It would be a mistake to assume the 10x P/E company is a better deal.
Variable Growth Rates - Some businesses have the capability of profitably growing their earnings, and others do not. Those with profitable and sustainable growth in the future are going to be worth more. You can’t directly compare P/E ratio’s in that circumstance.
Industry Differences - some industries are more attractive than others
Summary
The scope of this first principle is limited to simply understanding that your goal is to purchase the highest amount of present and future earnings possible. The way you do this is by paying a low price for those earnings.
32 - Shorting Stocks is a Negative-Sum Game (Investing First Principle)
29 Jun 2019
00:27:43
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Zero Based Thinking
Negative Carry
Opportunity Cost
Hidden Costs
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Shorting Stocks is a Negative-Sum Game (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
Any gains by one participant must be offset with losses by other participants.
The sum total of all value for all participants is equal to zero
Why shorting Stocks is a Negative-Sum Game
Stocks as a whole provide a positive expected value
Shorting stocks is the opposite. Now you have a negative expected value.
Further complicated by the issue of "negative carry."
When you purchase stock in a company the only cost of holding it, is an opportunity cost. What you could have spent the money on or what alternative investments you could have chosen. This opportunity cost is an implicit or hidden cost.
Shorting is different.
The act of shorting a stock involves two key explicit costs, both of which create negative carry.
Borrowing Costs
Dividend Payments
Other Key Problems with Shorting
Time Horizon Matters a lot:
You can be right and still lose money
Everyone is working against you. CEO, Employees, debt markets, other investors, etc...
The economy generally gets better over time. You're fighting the tide.
Like gambling in a casino
"The House Always Wins."
31 - Buying Stocks is NOT a Zero-Sum Game (Investing First Principle)
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Buying Stocks is NOT a Zero-Sum Game (Investing First Principle) - Show Outline
Any gains by one participant must be offset with losses by other participants.
The sum total of all value for all participants is equal to zero
Why buying Stocks is NOT a Zero-Sum Game
Stocks as a whole don't provide a positive expected value
You don’t have to “take” from others in order to receive. When companies create value this is “new value.” The economy grows, everyone becomes wealthier.
Stock Picking vs Index Funds?
The thought is that half of the money must underperform an index, and half of the money can outperform an index. The thought, therefore, is that buying stocks is zero-sum.
Where is the fallacy?
Index’s have historically had a positive expected value. If an index returns 10%, even if half of the money receives 8%, and half receives 12%, both parties are successful in growing their wealth.
One party doesn’t lose 10% so that the index can grow 10%. That’s not how this works.
Instead, stock ownership is best described as a positive sum game.
What is a Positive-Sum Game?
A positive sum game is where the total value received of all participants is greater than zero.
This means that you can be successful without worrying about the success of others.
Frees you from the need for comparison, jealousy, or envy.
Just because someone else made money, doesn’t mean you lose money.
Takeaway: You can ignore index funds and focus on your own personal goals
Takeaway: You can ignore macroeconomic trends. As long as your fundamental analysis of a company is correct, the broader economic picture is irrelevant.
Why is this true? - Capitalism grows the economic pie
Companies are full of employees who go to work each and every day trying to find a way to make your profits grow.
While this sometimes involves taking market share from other companies, the greatest gains come from innovation, improved efficiencies, new markets, and new products.
This raises the standard of living for all and the overall economic pie for the economy.
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GameStop Stock Investment Post-mortem - Show Outline
29 - "All Else Equal" Mental Model (Ceteris paribus)
02 Jun 2019
00:17:48
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"All Else Equal" Mental Model or Ceteris Paribus - Show Outline
In the section that says "Did someone refer you to Mr. Rebates?" as the "Referrer Email"
This is clearly marked optional and I encourage you to see the section in the show notes below called "What's in it for me?"
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You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast.
How to earn cash back online using Mr. Rebates - Show Outline
You make a purchase at a retailer's website through your Mr. Rebates affiliate link
The retailer pays Mr. Rebates a commission
Mr. Rebates passes that commission on to you for cash back after taking a small cut.
Benefits of Using Mr. Rebates to make Online Purchases
Earn bonus cash back on top of any cash back you receive from your credit cards
My most recent purchase:
Received 2% cash back from my credit card
Received 5% cash back from Mr. Rebates
Total: 7% cash back
Membership is Free and you receive a $5.00 bonus added to your account when you make your first purchase. (as of recording date, this may change in the future)
Drawbacks
I have used Mr. Rebates for over a year now testing it out. I wanted to make sure that the website was authentic and worked before recommending it to anyone. Here is my review of the drawbacks.
Doesn't work on every website
Thousands of stores are available to use Mr. Rebates on
Includes Amazon
Yet, there are numerous stores that Mr. Rebates does not work on. You'll have to see what stores Mr. Rebates offers compared to the online stores you shop at.
I have not had a 100% success rate in receiving the cash back.
I'd say my success rate has been about 90%.
The other 10% of the time is usually due to my adblocker preventing the tracking link from working.
You only earn cash back on the Pre-Tax Pre-Shipping price.
This is your sub-total, not the final total.
While credit card purchases will provide cash back on the total, you only earn Mr. Rebates cash back on the Pre-Tax Pre-Shipping price.
What's in it for me?
Disclosure: If you sign up and write in my email address the referral email section on the form, "trey@diyinvesting.org" then I will receive a commission when you save money using Mr. Rebates.
Our incentives are aligned:
I don't earn any commission for you signing up.
I ONLY earn a commission WHEN YOU SAVE MONEY.
Listing me as having referred you will not affect the cash back you receive in any way.
You'll not earn more or less cash back because I referred you.
My goal is to save you money.
I only earn a commission if you actually save money and earn cash back.
I hope you will and I hope you'll save a lot of money by using Mr. Rebates
The easiest way to sign up is to click my affiliate link at the top of the show notes of the podcast. Or you can go to www.diyinvesting.org/cashback
126 - Series I Bonds: My Inflation Protected Emergency Fund
30 Jan 2022
00:31:02
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Inflation
Emergency Fund
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Normally lacks inflation protection (nice to have, not a need)
My plan:
50% savings account
50% Series I Bonds
Take a few years to move into the I Bonds slowly to limit liquidity risks
Normal recommendation is 3-6 months of expenses. I like 12 months as a long-term goal.
Summary:
Series I Bonds are an inflation protected security issued by the United States Government to individual US Citizens. These non-marketable securities offer interest rates comparable to inflation and are an ideal asset to include in an emergency fund.
27 - How to calculate Intrinsic Value using Discounted Cash Flows (DCF)
19 May 2019
00:29:56
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How to calculate Intrinsic Value using Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Show Outline
26 - Owner's Earnings: Why Net Income or EPS can be deceiving
12 May 2019
00:27:04
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25 - Long Term Growth Rate Assumptions: How to Calibrate using SEC 10k Disclosures
05 May 2019
00:29:17
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A key component of a discounted cash flow calculation. (Along with Discount Rate [Ep.23] and Owner's Earnings[Ep.26])
How much growth a company can expect in its earnings over an infinite time horizon.
How you can make long-term growth rate assumptions
Bounds:
0% lower bound (no growth)
5%-6% upper bound (nominal GDP growth rate)
Key components:
Inflation
Population Growth
Productivity Growth
Don't assume that a company can grow faster than the economy in the long-term.
How to calibrate long-term growth rate assumptions based on management's regulatory disclosures
Example: Omnicom (OMC)
Using management's forecasts of 4% long-term growth rates, I lowered my growth forecast from 5% (matching nominal GDP growth) to match the 4% forecast by management.
This lowered my calculated intrinsic value by 13% for Omnicom stock.
24 - Emergency Fund Sizing for the Enterprising Investor
28 Apr 2019
00:19:06
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Value investing requires managing risk and accepting volatility
Lack of liquidity can cause you to sell investments when your stocks are undervalued and priced too low
A strong emergency fund protects you from this possibility
Where should you store it? (Hint: Maximize Safety)
You should maximize the safety of your emergency fund. Don't worry about maximizing the rate of return you receive.
Store your emergency fund in a government guaranteed account. This can be with either an FDIC-insured savings account. I believe Ally Bank is a good option.
A great alternative is TreasuryDirect.gov where you can lend money directly to the US government. Emergency Fund money would obviously need to be invested only in short-term government bonds. (3 months or less to maturity)
23 - What is a good Discount Rate to use for Discounted Cash Flow Calculations?
21 Apr 2019
00:26:52
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Books Referenced in this Podcast
Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
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Your discount rate should be based upon the rate of return you expect to earn on your investments. If you want or need to earn 8% on your investments, then your discount rate should be 8%.
If you want or need to earn 10% on your investments, then your discount rate should be 10%.
When to use Nominal versus Real Discount Rate:
You should use a Nominal discount rate when you are uncertain whether the company you are analyzing will be able to always grow their earnings at least at the rate of inflation.
You should use a Real discount rate when you are confident that a company will be able to automatically adjust their prices at least as fast as the inflation rate. In other words, the company must have pricing power. This behavior is typically only seen in high-quality companies.
Use the Same Discount Rate for ALL Companies
The discount rate you use heavily impacts the result of your valuation analysis. Therefore, it is critical to base this discount rate off of your expected rate of return.
You should also not adjust the discount rate you use based upon the risk of one company versus another. If you make this mistake, then you are likely investing in companies that are too risky to make reliable forward estimates of long-run earnings.
If you find yourself wanting to use a higher discount rate for a single company, take that as a red flag.
22 - How Disney+ improves the quality of Disney's business model
14 Apr 2019
00:26:04
Thank you for your support!
In this podcast episode, I mentioned one of the exclusive member benefits for those who choose to financially support this podcast as a Patron.
Patron's of The DIY Investing Podcast, receive exclusive access to my business quality reports.
$6.99 per month or $69.99 per year ($5.83 per month if paid in advance - basically 2 months free)
Launch Date: November 12th, 2019
Access to Disney's incredible library of old TV shows and movies, including:
The entire Pixar lineup of movies by the end of the first year
All of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (eventually), but Captain Marvel will be available on Day 1
National Geographic
All 9 main Star Wars movies, with Rogue One and Solo on top of that
Historic Disney Channel movies and TV Shows
The Signature collection of Disney classics including Cinderella and Lion King
Disney's Business Model
“Content is King”
Well Disney is the “King of Content”
Entertainment giant that has a flywheel effect allowing shareholders to profit off of branded content in numerous ways
Disney+ combines the best parts of the TV Channels, Movie Rentals, and Theatre Releases
Creates lasting fans
Movie Releases in Theatres
DVD and Movie Rentals and Purchases
Theme Parks (Disney World and Disney Land)
TV Channels like Disney Channel
Cruise Lines
Toy Sales and Licensing
New Addition: Direct to Consumer Streaming Service (Disney+)
Streaming is Sticky
Disney + is going to be a Brand Ambassador for Disney.
They will “lock-in” families when they have young children, building life long fans.
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21 - Keystone Habits of a Healthy Lifestyle
07 Apr 2019
00:23:01
Thank you for your support!
This podcast was inspired by the book "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhigg. You can support the podcast by purchasing the book through one of my affiliate links:
*Disclosure:If you make a purchase through one of these links, I may earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. Please understand that I have personally read all the books that I review. I recommend them because I believe they are helpful and useful, not because of any small commission I might receive. Please do not spend any money on these books unless you feel you need them or that they will help you achieve your goals.*
Keystone Habits of a Healthy Lifestyle
Exercise Regularly
The definition of "regular" will vary by the person. The key is to exercise at least every week with a focus on multiple times per week.
My personal goal is to exercise 6 times per week every week. This is as close to "daily" as I consider reasonable.
The more often you exercise, the greater the results you'll gain from turning exercise into a keystone habit.
Cook most of your meals at homefrom scratch
Inspired by the books of Michael Pollan outlining how and why of eating healthy to promote a healthy lifestyle.
This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron.
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20 - Keystone Habits of Investing
31 Mar 2019
00:34:44
Thank you for your support!
This podcast was inspired by the book "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhigg. You can support the podcast by purchasing the book through one of my affiliate links:
*Disclosure:If you make a purchase through one of these links, I may earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. Please understand that I have personally read all the books that I review. I recommend them because I believe they are helpful and useful, not because of any small commission I might receive. Please do not spend any money on these books unless you feel you need them or that they will help you achieve your goals.*
Keystone Habits of Investing
With investing there are both habits that you should consider adopting and habits that you should avoid.
Positive Keystone Habits of Investing you should adopt
Read one 10k every week.
Always write out an investment thesis BEFORE purchasing shares of stock in any company.
Negative Keystone Habits of Investing you should avoid
Checking stock prices every day
Once a week is the most frequently you need to check your stock prices.
Ideally, target once a month.
Use price alerts for stocks you're interested in buying. That way you will be alerted if they hit your buy price. Otherwise, don't spend any time worrying about stock prices.
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19 - Keystone Habits of Personal Finance
24 Mar 2019
00:23:12
Thank you for your support!
This podcast was inspired by the book "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhigg. You can support the podcast by purchasing the book through one of my affiliate links:
*Disclosure:If you make a purchase through one of these links, I may earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. Please understand that I have personally read all the books that I review. I recommend them because I believe they are helpful and useful, not because of any small commission I might receive. Please do not spend any money on these books unless you feel you need them or that they will help you achieve your goals.*
Keystone Habits of Personal Finance
Track every dollar you spend
Track the monthly changes in your net worth
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The Power of Habit Book Review
17 Mar 2019
00:29:08
Support the show by purchasing The Power of Habit through one of my affiliate links:
*Disclosure:If you make a purchase through one of these links, I may earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. Please understand that I have personally read all the books that I review. I recommend them because I believe they are helpful and useful, not because of any small commission I might receive. Please do not spend any money on these books unless you feel you need them or that they will help you achieve your goals.*
Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron. You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast Show Notes available at DIYInvesting.org
A written blog post review of this episode is available here.
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125 - Phase Change Investing
23 Jan 2022
00:34:28
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Phase Change (Chemistry)
Earnings Power
Consolidation Period
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In Chemistry, you have the mental model of a phase change.
Think: Solid, Liquid, Gas
In order to exercise a phase change youhave to increase the energy in a fluid. Increasing energy causes the temperature to rise, but when a phase change is close to occurring, the temperature will stop increasing for a period of time.
During this time, you have to keep increasing the energy, but the temperature will stay the same.
Why?
The excess energy is being applied to changing the phase of the fluid. This pause is incredibly important and the amount of energy needed to change phase is the "latent heat."
In the same way, you should try and profit from businesses undergoing a phase change.
Applying the Phase Change Mental Model to Stock Investing
Two ways to look at this:
Underlying earnings power
Shareholder base changes
Underlying Earnings Power
Often, stocks may be stuck in a trading range for a period of time, months, maybe years. On the surface (via the stock price) no change appears to be occurring. However, under the surface, the company is improving, cutting costs, building new products, and pleasing customers.
Then all of a sudden, th e company breaks out to new highs as eanrings go up 50%, 100%, or 200% when a new product launch occurs and operating leverage plays itself out.
Shareholder Base Changes
There are a diverse set of possible shareholders you need to be aware of.
Types:
Deep value
Value
Growth
Momentum
Speculators
Sizes:
Retail
Institutional Investors
Active Funds
Passive Funds
It can take a long time for a shareholder base to change over and that's one of the things that can occur during this consolidation period. Deep value sells to value, value sells to growth. Retail sells to Active funds, and active funds sell to passive.
If you want above-average returns, it can help to ride the wave from one set of investors to another.
If you can buy stock as a retail investor when NO isntitutional investors are involved and then wait long enough to sell to institutional investors, you can be bneefit from massive multiple expansion as the liquidity that they bring forces the stock price up faster than earnings.
Phase Change Investing Applied to My Portfolio
I want to buy stocks when they are nano-caps, trading for sub $50m and sell them after they have 10-20x becoming Small-Cap companies. The goal is to hold them through their nano-cap and micro-cap phases when there are no institutional investors and sell them once they are in the $500m-$1bn+ range.
At that time, ETFs, mutual funds, and hedge funds will be involved and I may be able to benefit from buying at sub 10x P/E multiples and sell at 25+ P/E multiples to these passive investors.
This process may take many years, but it can lead to supercharged returns.
Summary:
A phase change occurs when excess energy is added to a fluid. For aperiod of time, energy rises without temperature changing. Investors can learn from this mental model how to seize investing opportunities during consolidation periods.
Top Ten Personal Finance Lessons from Joshua Sheats (Episode017)
10 Mar 2019
00:38:50
In today’s episode, I will be sharing ten of the most important lessons I’ve learned from Joshua Sheats. These are lessons that apply to personal finance, investing, and beyond.
The Top 10 Personal Finance Lessons I have learned from Joshua Sheats
Conventional advice should not be accepted simply because it’s conventional advice
Conventional advice should also not be rejected simply because it’s conventional advice.
A strategy is more important than tactics. Tactics change over time, but a strategy is enduring.
Action leads to life change. Ideas, learnings, and study are all meaningless if you don’t take action to improve your life.
There is more than one way to become financially successful.
There is more than one definition of success. Don’t simply accept the definition given to you by society.
Don’t compare yourself to others, only your past self.
Personal finance is behavioral, not mathematical. The mathematics is simple and straightforward. Mastering your behavior takes a lot more effort.
You are capable of controlling and curating your desires by what you expose yourself to.
Don’t be afraid of helping others. Sharing of ideas, knowledge, and skills do not less your own worth. It only improves yourself, others, and the world. (Could be a business idea, how to get ahead, etc. ties into action.)
Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron. You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast Show Notes available at DIYInvesting.org
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The Joshua Sheats Framework for Wealth Building (Episode016)
03 Mar 2019
00:39:22
In today’s episode, I will be discussing Joshua Sheats’ Framework for Wealth Building.
The 5 Key Parts of Personal Finance
Increase Income
Decrease Expenses
Invest Wisely
Avoid Catastrophe
Optimize Lifestyle
Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron. You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast Show Notes available at DIYInvesting.org
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Investing in Advertising Holding Companies (Episode015)
24 Feb 2019
00:36:16
In today’s episode, I will be discussing the idea of investing in advertising holding companies. My guess is that many of you have never even considered investing in an advertising holding company. I hope that this podcast will introduce you to advertising holding companies as a possible investment candidate.
List of the largest Advertising Holding Companies:
WPP
Publicis
Omnicom
Interpublic
Havas
Dentsu
Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron. You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast. Show Notes available at DIYInvesting.org
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The Pros and Cons of Retail Chain Investing (Episode014)
17 Feb 2019
00:40:38
In today’s episode, I will be discussing the Pros and Cons of Retail Chain Investing. This topic is particularly interesting for me right now as I have been studying multiple retail chains as potential investments this past month.
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Don't Trust 2017 Reported Earnings! (Episode013)
10 Feb 2019
00:30:27
In today’s episode, I will be discussing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and its effect on reported 2017 earnings for US-based companies.
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Investing in the Oil Majors (Episode012)
03 Feb 2019
00:38:16
Oil majors: ExxonMobil (USA), Chevron (USA), Royal Dutch Shell (UK and Netherlands), BP (UK), TOTAL (French)
Traditionally, being an oil major has meant being a fully vertically integrated company from oil exploration, drilling, refining, and chemical production. ExxonMobil continues to fulfill that role, but they are much more than an oil company today. Although they are typically billed as an oil AND gas company. They are much more.
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Patreon: Why I am launching a DIY Investing Membership Program (Episode 011)
27 Jan 2019
00:50:36
Why Patreon?
The DIY Investing membership site is hosted on DIYInvesting.org with Patreon used as the payment processor and platform partner. Members are offered exclusive access to investing research and educational resources on how to be a better investor. Patreon allows me to carefully curate this insider content for each individual member of our community.
Exclusive Community Member Benefits
The public facing content of DIY Investing is focused on providing general purpose investing insight and personal finance education to the masses. In contrast, your membership will offer you exclusive behind-the-scenes access to my personal investing process. As you increase your contribution/membership level you will gain an increasingly inside look at the investment research that I perform on weekly basis.
All of the benefits provided here are meant to save you time and help you earn more money from your investing. You'll be gaining access to my personal notes, fundamental analysis, and valuation on companies.
Member Benefits Include:
Company Quality Analysis Spreadsheet
Individual Company Quality Reports
Company Intrinsic Value Spreadsheet with Buy/Hold/Sell Ratings
"Insider Access" to my Personal Investment Portfolio and Company Holdings
Small-Cap Stock Research - My personal notes and fundamental analysis
Micro-Cap Stock Research - My personal notes and fundamental analysis
"Buy Thesis" reports on each and every company that I currently own and purchase in the future
Short-Term Investment Alerts - Updates when I make changes to my personal portfolio
Gilead Sciences is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on treating and curing diseases. Their areas of focus include HIV, Hepatitis C, Oncology, Inflammation, and NASH.
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Business Model Overview
HIV
Hepatitis C
Oncology/Cancer Treatment (KITE) – Yescarta
Inflammation - Filgotinib
NASH (Liver disease) – Selonsertib
Leading cause of liver transplants. Generally related to Obesity
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First Principles of Investing (Episode009)
14 Jan 2019
00:45:31
First Principles are a critical mental model for you to understand to be a successful investor. Most people don’t make decisions based on facts and reality. Yet, the world of investing is unforgiving. The only way to succeed in the long run is to align your actions with fact-based decision making. There are specific fact-based actions that will increase your odds of financial success. These are the first principles of investing and personal finance.
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How to choose a Stock Brokerage Company (Episode008)
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124 - How I Value Trade Stocks
16 Jan 2022
00:30:41
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Value Trading
Horizontal Risk Shifting
Rebalancing
Look-Through Earnings
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Partial selling of a core holding to buy more of another core holding.
If the core position size is 20%, you may buy up to 25% or 30% of a surplus position when relatively undervalued and then sell it back when it is relatively overvalued.
Key: Using valuation specifically to change the weightings in your portfolio
Necessary assumption: Assuming you have a sufficiently good comparable idea
Goal
Only value trade when the exchange is clearly beneficial
High bar
50-100% increase in look-through earnings
I use a spreadsheet that constantly calculates look-through earnings for each position.
Horizontal Risk Shifting
Diversification of my risk by reducing my exposure to a single stock without having the value trade component. May not increase look-through earnings but minimizes risk.
Say splitting a 30% position in Coca-Cola into a 10% position in KO, Pepsi, and Dr. Pepper.
Want to target similar P/E ratios or better, but this has a lower bar.
Really used mainly for overly high current allocations or used when a stock is highly valued.
Summary:
Value Trading is the process of rebalancing a portfolio using valuation specifically to adjust the weightings of your individual stocks. I value trade to optimize the performance of my portfolio, increase returns, and reduce risk.
Should you use a Traditional or Roth IRA for retirement savings? (Episode007)
05 May 2018
00:26:06
Description
In this episode, I answer a listener question about how to save for retirement. Specifically, "Should I be using a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, or both for retirement saving?"
In order to answer this question, I provide a general overview of the features for both a Traditional and Roth IRA. I compare the similarities and differences. Finally, I provide some rules of thumb which you can choose to make a decision on which type of IRA best fits your situation.
Important Links
What is your #1 question about investing or personal finance? Answer this one question survey and your question might appear in a future podcast episode.
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The Little Book That Beats the Market Book Review (Episode006)
20 Apr 2018
00:35:02
Synopsis
This is a book review of The Little Book that Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt. The basic concept of the book is that it's quite simple to beat the market. So simple in fact, that a specific magic formula can be used to beat the market.
If that sounds too good to be true, that’s understandable.
The author Joel Greenblatt understands your skepticism. His goal is twofold:
1. Share his magic formula with you
2. Explain the concepts that make the magic formula work.
Purchase the book through one of my affiliate links
*If you make a purchase through one of my affiliate links, I receive a small commission at NO additional cost to you. This small commission helps to support the show and keep the episodes available for free.
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Asymmetric Risk and Reward: GameStop 2018 (Episode005)
20 Apr 2018
00:37:35
GameStop in 2018 is a prime example of an investment with asymmetric risk and reward. The company offers a greater than 10% dividend yield with a payout ratio less than 50%. As long as the dividend can be paid we'll make a good return. (NYSE: GME)
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Richest Man in Babylon Book Review (Episode 004)
22 Sep 2017
00:32:27
In this episode, I review the personal finance classic, The Richest Man in Babylon. This book provides the basic formula for building wealth. Every investor should be aware of the basic habits one must have to become rich.
If you'd like to purchase The Richest Man in Babylon, I would appreciate it if you use my affiliate links below:
If you purchase through one of my affiliate links, I will receive a small commission which helps to support the show. Thank you for your support.
If you would like to see a full written review of The Richest Man in Babylon, you can check it out through this link.
Stock-based compensation expense is a real expense for shareholders (Episode 003)
18 Aug 2017
00:28:00
In this episode, I discuss the effect of stock options or stock-based compensation expense on the after-tax returns of shareholders. These expenses paid to executives as compensation are often excluded from expenses when non-GAAP earnings are reported.
The show notes for this episode, including a transcript of today's podcast, my sources, and more can be found at https://www.diyinvesting.org/episode3
Gradualism Mental Model (Episode 002)
18 Aug 2017
00:36:18
In this episode, I discuss the mental model of Gradualism and how to become a millionaire by investing only $1 a day. Gradualism is a mental model built upon biology and geography which can be leveraged to enable you to achieve financial independence.
The show notes for this episode, including a transcript of today's podcast, my sources, and more can be found at https://www.diyinvesting.org/episode2
Mythbusting: Stocks are riskier than Bonds (Episode 001)
18 Aug 2017
00:33:53
In this episode of The DIY Investing Podcast, I discuss the common myth that stocks are riskier than bonds. Join me as I bust this myth, by discussing the capital asset pricing model, beta, volatility, and redefine risk for an investor.
The show notes for this episode, including a transcript of today's podcast, my sources, and more can be found at https://www.diyinvesting.org/episode1
123 - Maintenance Due Diligence
09 Jan 2022
00:33:11
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Due Diligence
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I can't accurately predict the future, so I know I will make mistakes, but I do make estimates on future performance AND management decision-making. Therefore, I attempt to monitor where future performance deviates from my estimate. That allows me to steadily inform myself whether the company is a mistake OR a success from an investment process standpoint.
Short: I want to know where I was wrong when I predicted the future and to validate or destroy my thesis.
Summary:
Maintenance due diligence is a critical skill that experienced investors practice in order to minimize potential mistakes after buying a stock. This ongoing effort is spent validating or proving wrong the original stock buy thesis.
122 - Are you the next Warren Buffett?
19 Sep 2021
00:33:25
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Second-Order Effects
Passive vs Active Investing
Standing on the Shoulders of Giants
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I have seen many writers, presentations, and discussions around this idea that YOU are NOT the next Warren Buffett, therefore...X
"Don't concentrate"
"Don't buy individual stocks"
"Buy Index Funds"
"You won't outperform...etc..."
What is the impact of this?
Is it true?
How many future Warren Buffett level investors will never arise because we've convinced them it is impossible?
Imagine if we treated scientists like this.
"You aren't the next Einstein (or Bezos or Zuckerberg)"
The lesson: Don't even bother trying
How many future inventions would we lose out on?
Summary:
Are you the next Warren Buffett? This question discourages potential investors from attempting to outperform. I discuss the second-order effects this has on the investing landscape and your personal financial situation.
121 - Q/A: Questions for Management, Due Diligence, Share Issuance
12 Sep 2021
00:29:33
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Capital Allocation
Due Diligence
Share Dilution
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Best questions to ask management and/or investor relations
When would you be happy to see management raise capital by issuing shares?
How much time do you put on initial vs maintenance due diligence?
What are some of your preferred research resources for due diligence?
Favorite company filing and why is it the proxy statement?
120 - Philosophy of Concentrated Investing
05 Sep 2021
00:52:01
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Concentration vs Diversification
Hurdle Rate
Circle of Competence
Conviction
Opportunity Cost
Satisficing
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What is the highest level of concentration an individual investor should be willing to place into a single stock (when buying?) Specifically, asking about non-special situations, more long-term holdings. Presumably, at some point, cat-risk is too high even when you have an edge.
Imagine you own a 5-10 stock portfolio. Over the weekend, it is announced that all 10 companies are merging and will be subsidiaries under a single capital allocator that you like. Do you make any portfolio changes? You still own the same companies, but now 1 stock, not 10.
What are you buying when buying a stock?
Concentration: " The number of stocks you own is dependent on how you view yourself as an investor."
Is it possible to produce alpha?
If yes, concentrate
If no, diversify
Are you a good investor?
If yes, concentrate
If no, diversify
Conviction
If yes, concentrate
If no, diversify
Summary:
How many stocks should you own? This is a critical question without a single answer. Your portfolio concentration is constrained by time, circle of competence, and conviction.
119 - How to become a Self-Made Millionaire
29 Aug 2021
00:51:52
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Self-Made Millionaire
Cumulative Advantage
Compounding
Power of Habit
Privilege
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Self-Made Millionaires are created by the choices and habits under your control, not your starting point in the world. Focus on the slow accumulation of advantages and ignore anything outside of your control.
118 - NACCO Stock Post-Mortem $NC
29 Jun 2021
00:48:37
Mental Models discussed in this podcast:
Durability
Post-Mortem
Resulting
Capital Allocation
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NACCO spun off Hamilton Beach Brands in September 2017
I first bought shares in March 2018 at a price of $40 per share
I averaged down in May and June 2018 with shares at a price of $34 per share.
Averaged down in September 2018 at $32 per share and October 2018 at $29 per share
Within a year, the stock doubled to over $65 per share in October 2019. This is the recent peak. Instead of selling, I held because I valued the company at $75 per share at the time. It wasn't yet at fair value.
May and June 2020, I averaged down again at $26 per share and then $22-24 per share.
In March 2021, I recognized that holding $NC was a large opportunity cost on my portfolio and I shifted some money to other stocks while the stock was around $24-25 per share.
In May 2021, I exited my stake in $NC completely at a loss around $25-26 per share.
Some lots were sold at a gain and some at a loss. Overall, the position was a net loss and a much bigger loss on an opportunity cost basis.
Thoughts and Key Questions
I should have sold or trimmed after the stock doubled in less than a year. $65 per share was within my error margin for my $75 fair value estimate. Even simply reducing my stake by half would have been a good decision.
The main reason I didn't do this was that it would have had to sit in cash. I didn't have many other good ideas at the time.
My biggest mistakes are often made when I'm in cash or when I would be creating a cash position. (Always do research for new ideas!!!)
Was buying $NC in the first place a mistake?
No, I don't think so. My theory was sound. I expected positive news from NACCO and it was cheap at $40 per share. It was the best idea I had at the time, I was also running a diversified 10-15 stock portfolio when I bought NACCO.
My thesis was correct, but I had thesis creep as news flow came out. My original valuation placed the stock as worth between $50-65 dollars. I only upped my estimate after high natural gas income. I should have recognized that was temporary and sold.
I thought NACCO was a 3-5 year hold business, but it probably should have been sized as a last puff cigar butt. When that puff came within a year, I should have sold.
Did I accurately assess NACCO's business model quality?
Yes. NACCO's service model of earning money from unconsolidated subsidiaries allows it to earn high returns on capital as the customer puts up all of the capital.
Did I accurately assess the durability of NACCO's business?
No. I misestimated the likelihood of a coal mine closure.
I did assess that coal mine closures were likely and I accurately predicted the degree to which they would harm the business. However, I underestimated the degree to which NACCO's stock would decline. I thought the decline was overdone.
Did I accurately assess management/capital allocation?
Partial yes, Partial No.
I accurately predicted that management would NOT dedicate new capital to new coal mines.
I accurately predicted that free cash flow would be dedicated to growing the North American Mining business.
However, I underestimated the maintenance CapEx needed for the MLMC consolidated coal mine. This sucked up a large amount of cash flow for the 3 years I owned the stock. Future maintenance CapEx is going to be lower, but the timing was bad on my part.
I also underestimated the ROIC from the money put into the North American Mining business. I expected higher returns for the cash outlay.
Thoughts and Lessons Learned
Don't buy companies that lack durability and really dive into this question of durability.
A mistake on durability could mean that a very low P/E is justified.
Personal preference: I highly prefer buying steady growth companies.
I did not enjoy the constant negative and bad news reports from the company while I owned it. The primary problem with owning NACCO for the last 3 years was the opportunity cost of how that money could have grown with other better companies.
My actual losses weren't that high. Some of my purchases made a profit.
However, the process of turning one profit center (COAL) into a new profit center (NAM) is slow and costly. That's basically a turnaround situation.
I don't want to own turnaround situations until after they've been turned around.
It's basically dead money
Creates large opportunity cost situations
Management is critical
I want a management team that I believe is fully aligned with me on skin-in-the-game.
NACCO has a good management team, but they don't run the company how I would run the company. They receive regular ongoing stock options and issuance which dilutes me as a shareholder. There isn't a lot of insider buying and there weren't a lot of share buybacks which I would have preferred.
If I were assessing NACCO today, while I still believe it is cheap, I don't think it would pass my current management/capital allocation filter. Perhaps that will change in the next 5-10 years.
Be wary of thesis creep.
NACCO would have been one of my best success stories if I simply sold it after it hit $60 per share. A quick double and it would have been a lot of money for my portfolio as a 20% position.
Instead, I allowed my thesis to creep which resulted in $NC being a drag on my performance for years 2 and 3 of my holding period.
Summary:
I want to buy and hold high-quality, durable businesses that are growing AND are selling at a cheap price. NACCO had a cheap price and was high-quality, but it was of low durability and had no growth.
Going forward, I am going to be more diligent at filtering out ideas that don't meet ALL of my highly stringent criteria.
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Today’s podcast will focus on a single precept: You can’t predict the future
First and Second Order Effects
Margin of Safety
Preference for cash now vs cash later (Plays into want for profitable companies) Time value of money.
Growth is important because it can correct for mistakes, but you know you can’t predict it
Some of what you “know” about investing may not be true
Importance of Zero-Based Thinking (what is the best decision today based on what you know today)
Wrong because past price performance can’t predict the future (it may, but it may not)
Wrong because it assumes that winners will keep on winning and losers will keep on losing
“Don’t catch a falling knife”
“Hold onto winners, trim your losers”
The central problem with rebalancing
It is definitely true that successful rebalancing CAN add value
It is also true that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know if your rebalancing will be successful
How then do you behave? How do you invest in the face of uncertainty?
First order:
Second order:
Investing in the face of uncertainty
You cannot assume business momentum. You plan for it and buy stocks you think will have it, but your strategy cannot assume it will continue.
You cannot assume reversion to the mean. You plan for it and buy cheap stocks because it offers the opportunity of reversion to the mean, but your strategy cannot assume stocks WILL mean revert in the time frame you want.
You cannot assume that growth will continue.
You cannot assume a specific growth target will be hit.
You cannot assume that your predictions about business quality will be better on company A than on company B.
The only thing you can know to be true is that the future is uncertain.
I personally use some absolute rules (like no margin debt, no options, and no shorting). Not because they’re optimal, but because they limit my risk and allow me to take risks in other areas.
Some of your decisions will be a mistake. That doesn’t mean you don’t make a decision. Indecision is a decision.
Selling some winners may be correct and selling others may be a mistake. Your strategy needs to incorporate that understanding. “Absolute rules” can be helpful to limit mistakes, but they will inherently be suboptimal.
What is my point:
It would be a mistake NOT to trim when I am given the opportunity to do so. Failing to take advantage of opportunities that ignore zero based thinking will result in me having lower returns across an investment lifetime.
You want to build a strategy that follows this precept: “If I lived my life 10,000 times, what strategy would result in a favorable outcome across the most possible lifetimes?”
Don’t optimize for the “perfect” scenario.
Don’t optimize for the “worst case” scenario.
Optimize for uncertainty. Prepare for the worse, plan for the best, and adjust daily.
There are aspects of my strategy that go against established norms. However, there are clear reasons for that. I know that I cannot predict the future.
Therefore, I am willing to sell or trim my winners when I believe it improves my potential returns and reduces my risk.