Explore every episode of the podcast The Dividend Cafe
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday - October 27, 2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | 00:08:57 | |
Brian Szytel broadcasts from the Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach headquarters on Tuesday, Oct. 27, describing a late-session recovery led by AI-related tech, with mixed underlying breadth: the Dow up 15, S&P 500 up 0.6%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and the 10-year Treasury ending at 5.0%. With ~40% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week and an FOMC decision imminent, he cautions against top-down investing or positioning around elections, citing Brazil’s surprise result and market drop, and urges a fundamentals-based, bottom-up approach; he notes an upcoming David Bahnsen interview with Mark Halperin on Nov. 5. He reviews economic data (durable goods up 1.8%, softer Case-Shiller, slightly better new home sales, consumer confidence 91.7) and discusses Middle East risk and WTI oil near $100. He also explains high gas prices as a global supply-demand commodity issue, not price gouging, noting U.S. exports of light sweet crude and imports of heavy sour crude for refinery needs. 00:00 Market Wrap and AI Rebound 01:20 Earnings Week and Fed Watch 01:49 Why Top-Down Bets Fail 03:39 Midterms Talk and Upcoming Interview 04:08 Economic Data Rundown 04:56 Oil and Geopolitical Backdrop 05:31 Why Gas Prices Stay High 07:02 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - October 26, 2026 | 26 Oct 2026 | 00:14:04 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yKFqXT From Newport Beach, the episode recaps a modest market rebound (Dow +146, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.82%) with tech leading while communication services lagged, and highlights the 10-year yield at 4.99% after falling ~35 bps in two weeks, which the host attributes more to supply/demand and positioning than inflation. He notes elevated volatility, worsening market breadth and concentration risk, and “under the hood” weakness despite the S&P being near highs. Major items include Brazil’s election (Lula victory and a sharp equity drop), a $63B AI-compute financing structure tied to Broadcom/Anthropic, and Meta announcing a $95B stock sale plan. He flags unverified reports about Fetterman, possible Iran strike escalation, and progress on a Canada trade deal. The week ahead includes Q3 GDP (~3.3%), a Fed meeting (markets price 90% no hike), hyperscaler earnings, high mortgage rates, and elevated oil. 00:00 Welcome From Newport 00:48 Market Close Recap 01:58 Bond Yields And Fed 03:38 Market Breadth Warning 05:39 Under The Hood Losses 06:45 Global And Deal News 08:09 Politics And Geopolitics 09:21 GDP Housing And Energy 11:02 Ask TBG And Week Ahead 12:00 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| A Treadmill Market: Feeling Good while Going Nowhere | 23 Oct 2026 | 00:28:22 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TYkoXw David Bahnsen explains how range-bound, volatile markets can feel productive yet deliver flat or mediocre returns over long stretches, citing the S&P 500 from 2000–2009 (about -0.9%/year with dividends) and the Dow from 1966–1981 (flat on price but roughly 4–4.5%/year with dividends). He notes periods when dividends comprise most or all of total return, but shifts to today’s math: recent S&P gains (about 15% annualized over 15 years and 22.9% over three) imply either a higher long-run average or future below-mean returns via sharp declines or prolonged choppiness. Applying this to AI, he highlights NVIDIA’s flat year despite strong fundamentals, with Palantir down 7% and CoreWeave down ~60% amid 100% revenue growth, arguing that unknowability, capital constraints, and high valuations can yield unsatisfying stock returns even if AI succeeds, and he advocates dividend growth as a way to navigate volatility and reduce left-tail risk. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 02:21 Why Flat Feels Busy 03:33 Lost Decade S&P 2000s 05:58 Sideways Seventies Dow 07:29 Dividends Matter Most 09:21 Mean Reversion Math 11:44 AI Poster Child Nvidia 13:42 Flat Stocks Despite Growth 16:21 Capital Risks and CapEx 22:24 Unknowability Meets Valuation 24:25 Dividend Growth Solution 26:12 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - October 22, 2026 | 22 Oct 2026 | 00:07:11 | |
In this Dividend Cafe episode, Brian Szytel reviews a highly dispersed market day: the Dow finished slightly up while the S&P 500 fell 1.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.6% as high-valuation growth, tech, semis, and AI-related names sold off sharply. Treasury yields declined broadly, with the 10-year down 15 bps to 4.96%, while WTI rose about 2% to 99 amid Middle East uncertainty. He notes initial jobless claims were 194,000 versus 200,000 expected and argues more reasonably valued, dividend-oriented areas held up better. He also explains the difference between non-purpose lending and margin, highlighting total margin debt around $1.5T (near 5% of GDP), elevated versus 2000 and 2021, with high leverage and lower net equity increasing risk and potential volatility. 00:00 Welcome and Market Recap 00:50 Rates Oil and Sector Dispersion 01:39 AI Valuations and CapEx Reality 02:07 Jobless Claims and What Worked 02:33 Margin vs Non Purpose Loans 03:43 Record Margin Debt and Risk 04:52 Portfolio Positioning Takeaways 05:17 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - October 21, 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | 00:09:27 | |
Brian Szytel reviews a constructive midweek market update: the Dow rose 360 points, the S&P 500 gained about 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was up a little over 1% as tech and growth led on early strong tech earnings expectations; energy is also expected to post blowout earnings due to higher oil prices. He notes calm interest rates with the 10-year around 5.12, WTI near $98 and Brent about $109, plus a quieter geopolitical backdrop ahead of midterm elections, though there is talk of relocating some U.S. embassy officials and families in the Gulf. He discusses the delayed Anthropic IPO and highlights the AI landscape’s enormous future compute and chip-lease commitments versus current revenues, warning of underappreciated counterparty and circular financing risks. Addressing a question on off-balance-sheet financing, he distinguishes today’s structures from 2008-era SPVs, but stresses understanding obligations and who ultimately “holds the paper,” with major diversified firms most able to absorb the risk. 00:00 Market Update Kickoff 00:09 Stocks Rally and Rotation 01:33 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 02:09 AI IPO Spending Shock 03:29 Hidden Risks and Commitments 04:48 Off Balance Sheet Financing Explained 06:33 Who Holds the Bag 07:41 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - October 20, 2026 | 20 Oct 2026 | 00:10:11 | |
Brian Szytel recaps an up day for the Dow (with the S&P slightly up and Nasdaq flat), framing it as ongoing rotation from growth to value amid solid earnings trends but mixed sector results and stress signals in credit, including widening high-yield CCC spreads and leveraged “neo cloud” providers facing double-digit financing costs and rising CDS. The key data focus is housing, described as broadly weak: housing starts fell 4.5% to 859,000 and pending home sales dropped 7.3% in September, reflecting a frozen market driven by locked-in low mortgage rates, high homeowner equity, and record-low affordability as mortgage rates jumped from 6.8% to 7.4%. He contrasts today with 2006, notes rents and owner’s equivalent rent ticking higher, and answers a question on CCC distress by explaining spreads don’t always equal insolvency, outlining refinancing risk and “creative destruction” dynamics. 00:00 Market Wrap And Rotation 00:35 Earnings And Credit Undercurrents 01:26 Housing Data Turns Ugly 02:22 Why Prices Stay Firm 03:13 Affordability Squeeze Explained 04:25 Rent Inflation Feedback Loop 05:07 What Unfreezes Housing 06:08 CCC Spreads Question Answered 07:56 Refinancing Wall And Defaults 08:22 Creative Destruction And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - October 19, 2026 | 19 Oct 2026 | 00:14:48 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yXvACK David Bahnsen reviews a volatile news weekend and announces The Bahnsen Group’s new Santa Barbara office. Markets were mixed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.4%, Nasdaq up ~1%) amid unusual breadth and rotation dynamics, while AI-related “pick-and-shovel” names faced pressure tied to funding concerns and slowing expectations for the rate of AI capex growth. The 10-year yield rose to 5.14% and sector performance diverged sharply (consumer discretionary led; utilities lagged). He notes Goldman Sachs earning more from lending against equities than equity trading, signaling rising leverage and potential volatility, and highlights a NASDAQ/2000-style chart comparison. He discusses violent unrest in France, a 50/50 Senate outlook and likely Democratic House control, key economic data (US industrial production +0.7%, China Q3 GDP 4.5%), surging US mortgage payments, falling homebuilder sentiment, and Fed signals favoring no October hike but likely December. Earnings season accelerates, with midstream energy updates and a forthcoming Friday episode on range-bound markets. 00:00 Welcome and Updates 01:25 Market Close Recap 01:59 Breadth Rotation and AI 04:36 Yields Sectors and Leverage 06:30 Rhyming Market Charts 07:15 France Unrest and Elections 09:23 Economic Data Roundup 10:05 Housing Affordability Squeeze 10:56 Fed Outlook and Oil 12:21 Earnings Season and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Lightly Held Views, Aggressive Investments – Money Manager Week | 16 Oct 2026 | 00:23:39 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47k5xcW David Bahnsen recaps The Bahnsen Group’s annual “money manager week,” describing its history since 2006 and explaining how he, Brian Szytel, and Kenny Molina held nearly 30 meetings and later debriefed with their investment committee. He highlights a major, disappointing lesson from an emerging markets manager whose portfolio shifted heavily into AI/semiconductor-related positions and who said they “hold views lightly while expressing it aggressively,” prompting Bahnsen to stress the importance of consistent philosophy, disciplined process, and accountability over peer-pressure-driven positioning; the team must now reallocate nearly $200 million. Additional takeaways include heightened acrimony among alternative and private credit managers, wide dispersion and growing nuance in AI views, evidence that parts of the September AI/semiconductor rally were driven by catch-up flows, the need to separate AI beta from company-specific skill, and the increasingly systemic nature of AI exposure across markets. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:48 Why This Trip Matters 01:21 Origins in 2006 02:53 Crisis Lessons 2008 03:58 How The Trip Evolved 05:14 Growth Portfolio Shift 06:21 Mutual Fund Tax Trap 07:12 Exiting The Growth Manager 08:05 Emerging Markets Mentor 09:51 AI Pivot Shock 11:29 Hold Lightly Quote 12:50 Conviction and Discipline 16:42 Other Meeting Takeaways 17:25 AI Views and Catch Up 19:07 AI Beta Versus Skill 20:21 Systemic AI Exposure 21:03 Consistency Above All 21:38 Closing and Next Episode 22:00 Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - October 15, 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | 00:09:01 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day marked by value outperforming growth, dividend payers beating growth-oriented stocks, and equal-weight indices outperforming cap-weighted, alongside notable bond-market swings following hotter-than-expected CPI and a sharply higher PPI print. He reviews key economic data: initial jobless claims in line, retail sales far above expectations, and improving manufacturing readings (Philly Fed and Empire State), suggesting a strong consumer and near full employment. On inflation, headline PPI rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% versus lower consensus forecasts, implying core PCE may run around 3.2% y/y, keeping pressure on the Fed to continue hiking, with additional hikes priced in. He argues the bond market signals concern about slowing growth rather than runaway inflation, noting low inflation break-evens and a very flat yield curve, favoring shorter-duration, income-oriented assets. In Q&A, he addresses SpaceX/Starlink’s potential impact on Verizon, emphasizing rural competition risk but highlighting existing telecom infrastructure, dividend coverage by free cash flow, and monitoring rising capex needs. 00:00 Market Whiplash Recap 02:09 Economic Data Rundown 02:40 PPI Shock And Inflation 03:45 Fed Path And Bonds 04:45 Yield Curve And Strategy 05:16 Verizon Versus Starlink 07:04 Wrap Up And Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - October 14, 2026 | 14 Oct 2026 | 00:08:12 | |
On October 14, Dividend Cafe recapped a down market day with the Dow nearly flat, the S&P down over 1%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.9% as tech and semis led declines. Markets reacted to September CPI, with headline inflation up 0.6% (in line) but core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and year-over-year core at 2.6% versus 2.5%, with broader components like airfares, transportation, and shelter costs rising. Rates rose then fell as stress prompted some flight-to-safety dynamics, and the yield curve continued flattening. The episode discussed a “mini” rate-hike cycle (around three hikes) and emerging cracks such as stressed neocloud bonds, bank loan value pressure, and widening CCC high-yield spreads. It also explained foreign withholding taxes in U.S.-listed European dividend ETFs and how foreign tax credits are claimed via year-end tax reporting. 00:00 Market Wrap and Rates 01:19 CPI Report Breakdown 02:07 Shelter Costs and Inflation Path 03:20 Mini Rate Hike Cycle 03:46 Cracks From Rising Rates 04:45 International Dividend Taxation 06:09 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - October 13, 2026 | 13 Oct 2026 | 00:09:10 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date gains alongside stronger earnings growth, implying multiple contraction and cheaper stocks. The main stress area is CCC credit, where yields are 15–17% and spreads have widened about 300 bps in five months, while broader credit remains constructive. He discusses bull market context, profit margins (Mag Seven effects, pricing power, PPI vs CPI), and notes NFIB optimism (97.9) and existing home sales (4.0M) met expectations; bonds rallied ahead of CPI. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:29 Earnings Season Begins 00:54 Rates and Yield Curve 01:38 Credit Stress Signals 02:33 Earnings Growth Outlook 02:58 Bull Market Context 04:57 Profit Margins Explained 06:45 Economic Data Check 07:09 CPI Preview and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - October 12, 2026 | 12 Oct 2026 | 00:17:25 | |
In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities. 00:00 Holiday Market Caveat 01:13 Bond Yields Recap 01:49 Market Moves Today 02:32 Breadth Warning Signs 04:39 Earnings Season Focus 06:28 AI Capex Reality Check 07:34 Weekend Geopolitical News 08:38 Senate Map Outlook 11:30 Savings Versus Spending 13:49 Housing And Fed Watch 14:45 Midstream And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| What to Make of Rising Bond Yields? | 09 Oct 2026 | 00:29:21 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2 David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials. 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 01:07 Why Long Yields Matter 03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour 03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver 09:12 Inflation Expectations Check 14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock 18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium 21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth 24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now 27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - October 8, 2026 | 08 Oct 2026 | 00:07:18 | |
Brian Szytel records shortly before the close on October 8, noting a modest down day with the Dow and S&P off about a third of a percent and the Nasdaq down about two-thirds, as value holds up better than growth amid sharply higher oil (WTI around $92, Brent around $106) and slightly higher rates. He observes the yield curve has been flattening over the past two weeks as long rates come down somewhat, with news out of France adding bond-market reverberations, and highlights better-than-expected initial jobless claims. Drawing on meetings with multiple portfolio managers, he discusses strong near-term earnings expectations—particularly in South Korean memory names—but cautions that forward-looking markets can quickly reprice if longer-term demand, productivity, or capex payoffs disappoint, arguing against over-concentration. He also explains that a 15-basis-point move in the 10-year is dramatic but more common than assumed, occurring about 34 times in five years. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:31 Market Snapshot Today 00:51 Oil and Rates Impact 01:36 Economic Data Check 01:50 NYC Manager Meetings 02:22 AI Memory Stock Caution 04:07 Rate Volatility Explained 05:23 Wrap Up and Sign Off 05:40 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - October 7, 2026 | 07 Oct 2026 | 00:08:20 | |
Brian Szytel reports a modest down day in equities after all-time highs, with oil trending lower (WTI ~88, Brent ~100), a slightly flatter yield curve, and the 10-year around 5.28%. He cites limited economic news beyond FOMC minutes reaffirming a 25 bp hike and expectations for another hike this year, alongside a well-received ~40B 10-year auction. He describes a bifurcated backdrop: higher-for-longer rates pressuring rate-sensitive, long-duration sectors (real estate, BDCs, asset/alternative managers) while credit remains stable with subdued high-yield spreads, and the economy stays strong with full employment, high corporate margins, and inflation easing slowly. He highlights AI-driven productivity expectations as pivotal, advocates measured AI exposure, and says REIT dividends can hold and grow if holdings are selective and supported by rent growth, citing defensible real estate examples and past dividend growth through prior shocks. 00:00 Market Close Snapshot 00:39 Rates Oil and Rotation 01:08 Fed Minutes and Treasury Demand 01:47 Higher for Longer Risks 03:24 Economy Still Strong 03:44 AI Productivity Wildcard 04:34 REITs and Dividend Resilience 05:17 Portfolio Real Estate Examples 06:16 Wrap Up and Q&A Invite Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - October 6, 2026 | 06 Oct 2026 | 00:04:50 | |
David Bahnsen delivers the Daily Recap from New York City while Brian Szytel meets with a manager, noting that he, Brian, and Kenny Molina are in their annual week of meetings with many money managers, having completed 16 meetings in two days and not yet halfway through. He says early takeaways include the biggest area of disagreement among managers being differing views on AI, while the common concern is the impact of higher bond yields across asset classes, with the 10-year yield (5.28% after falling three basis points) highlighted as especially important. Markets rose: Dow +250, S&P +45, Nasdaq +122; the bond market was up as yields fell. Utilities led sectors up over 3%, while healthcare was slightly down and the only sector in red. A new Ask TBG question is posted at dividendcafe.com, with Brian hosting podcasts Wednesday/Thursday and David returning Friday. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:09 NYC Manager Meetings 00:56 Key Themes AI and Yields 01:31 Market Snapshot 01:44 Rates and Ten Year Focus 02:04 Sector Performance 02:22 Ask TBG and Upcoming Shows 02:53 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - October 5, 2026 | 05 Oct 2026 | 00:10:43 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments. 00:00 Midday Recording Setup 01:24 Earnings Season Expectations 02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff 03:58 AI Task Force Policy 05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook 06:35 Weak Jobs Report 07:29 Rates Inflation Signals 08:28 Energy Midstream Notes 08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| The Past, Present, and Future of The Bahnsen Group | 02 Oct 2026 | 00:27:32 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining what changes and what does not—especially continued autonomy, culture, and client service while leveraging Hightower’s technology, compliance, cybersecurity, and client portal resources. Bahnsen recounts his path into finance from managing musical bands, early career at PaineWebber/UBS, adoption of dividend growth, move to Morgan Stanley, thriving through the financial crisis, key partnerships with Brian Szytel, Kimberly Davis, and Robert Graham, and the 2014 move to independence. He notes current scale (14 offices, 13 cities, $10.5B, ~110 employees) and reiterates he is not leaving the firm. 00:00 Welcome and Housekeeping 01:50 Why This Episode Matters 03:15 Early Life Before Finance 05:31 Entering Wall Street 07:02 UBS to Morgan Stanley 09:02 Building the Core Team 10:36 Going Independent 13:13 Choosing Hightower Partner 14:20 Growth and Evolution 16:58 Acquisition and Autonomy 20:04 What Changes for Clients 22:23 Personal Motivation Story 25:54 Closing and Next Week Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - October 1, 2026 | 01 Oct 2026 | 00:09:20 | |
Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit." 00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot 00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook 02:06 Watching Credit Spreads 02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity 03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar 04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate 06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts 06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach 07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off 07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - September 30, 2026 | 30 Sep 2026 | 00:09:48 | |
On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and consumer spending was robust, suggesting the economy is still humming despite high rates and debt concerns. He discusses a shifting Fed “put” narrative and answers why forward PEG ratios can look cheap versus expensive backward-looking metrics: higher expected growth, stronger profitability, and greater index concentration in the “Mag Seven,” with risk that earnings expectations could fall if AI spending disappoints. 00:00 Quarter End Market Recap 00:52 PCE Inflation And Yield Curve 02:07 Fed Hike Odds And Jobs Watch 02:33 GDP Payrolls And Spending 03:28 Bond Vigilantes And The Fed Put 05:35 Valuation Question CAPE Vs PEG 06:30 Tech Boom Comparisons And AI Risk 07:36 Dividend Focused Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - September 29, 2026 | 29 Sep 2026 | 00:08:59 | |
Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M vs. 7.2M), and Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.3% monthly but lag inflation amid high mortgage rates and weak price discovery. He answers why rates rise despite higher oil: the Fed targets elevated PCE/core inflation by tightening to cool broad-based price pressures. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:29 Why Yields Are Rising 02:17 Fed Put and Bond Vigilantes 03:16 Where Rates May Settle 03:37 Today’s Economic Data 04:33 Housing Market Reality Check 05:21 Why Hike With High Oil 07:04 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - September 28, 2026 | 28 Sep 2026 | 00:19:49 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1 From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week. 00:00 Welcome From Vegas 00:51 Friday Energy Plug 01:43 Market Drop Recap 02:38 Breadth Warning Signs 05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors 07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context 08:13 Valuation Rubber Band 09:30 China Talks Update 10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map 13:18 Economic And Housing Data 15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal 15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines 16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Unapologetic Energy Bull: Meet Me in the Middle | 25 Sep 2026 | 00:26:02 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large inventory drawdowns, and that energy equities appear disconnected from oil’s move, with valuations running about 70% of their historical relationship to the broader market. He makes a bullish, longer-term case tied to AI-driven power needs and highlights midstream “2.0” fundamentals: rising domestic and global natural gas demand, expanding LNG export capacity, hard-to-permit pipelines with inflation-protected contracts, better governance, lower leverage, and strong distribution growth potential. 00:00 Welcome And Setup 01:07 Why Energy Is Ignored 05:03 Index Weighting Reality 08:49 Hormuz Supply Shock 11:55 Oil Versus Stocks Gap 14:08 AI Needs More Power 15:16 Valuation Case For Energy 17:14 Midstream Opportunity 18:24 Midstream PTSD And Comeback 19:51 Midstream 2.0 Tailwinds 22:20 Pipelines And Capital Discipline 25:15 Wrap Up And Takeaway Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - September 24, 2026 | 24 Sep 2026 | 00:09:42 | |
On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and economic activity, while higher rates also boost interest income to savers and the economy. Economic data included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (197k) and stronger new home sales (684k). He also addresses international dividend stocks, noting foreign withholding taxes can be offset via foreign tax credits, but prefers U.S. dividend growers due to steadier dividend policies and less sector concentration than Europe/Asia. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:38 Oil Surge And Rate Shock 01:31 Why Long Rates Rise 03:01 Higher Rates Upsides 04:10 Economic Data Check 04:54 International Dividend Stocks 05:50 US Versus Overseas Dividends 07:43 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - September 23, 2026 | 23 Sep 2026 | 00:09:17 | |
Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy markets showed angst amid Iran-related developments and discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban, with WTI up about 2.7% to nearly $93. He then addresses comparisons between the 1990s internet boom and today’s AI boom, arguing that even profitable, durable companies like Cisco and Microsoft suffered massive drawdowns due to valuation, cautioning that today’s highly valued AI names may have too much optimism priced in. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:51 Yield Curve and Recession Talk 02:02 Flash PMI Surprise 03:02 Inflation and Energy Risks 04:09 Dotcom vs AI Debate 05:49 Valuation Lessons Cisco 06:16 AI IPO Pricing Caution 07:16 Closing Thoughts and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - September 22, 2026 | 22 Sep 2026 | 00:09:31 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as WTI slipped below $90. He observes a previously strong negative correlation between AI/semiconductors and software stocks is becoming more nuanced, creating potential opportunities. Addressing a listener question, he explains how the long-running yen carry trade was amplified by U.S. rate hikes and Japan’s zero rates, but is now unwinding as Japan raises rates, reducing arbitrage, prompting deleveraging and some risk-asset pressure, though orderly so far. 00:00 Market Snapshot 00:27 Rates and Fed Conditions 01:11 Oil Move and Inflation Signals 02:05 AI Semis vs Software Rotation 03:45 Outlook for More Hikes 04:32 Carry Trade Explained 05:52 BOJ Shift and Deleveraging 07:23 Wrap Up and Calendar Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - September 21, 2026 | 21 Sep 2026 | 00:14:10 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqV David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how its use has shifted toward non-purpose lending, highlights record ETF inflows into technology as a contrarian signal, and reviews news including media access litigation, progress on the Paramount/Warner Brothers deal, Apollo buying a 16% stake in the New York Yankees, and a newly announced AI task force. Economic data included flat industrial production, stronger retail sales, weak homebuilder sentiment, and declining housing starts, while Fed commentary shifted toward expecting a possible October hike and noting Chairman Warsh’s skepticism about a knowable neutral rate and strict data dependency; the Bank of Japan also raised rates. 00:00 Welcome and Travel Update 01:17 Market Rally and Sector Moves 02:13 Market Breadth Warning 03:29 Margin Debt and Leverage 05:15 Tech ETF Inflow Surge 05:39 Headlines and Deal News 06:27 Policy and Global Trade 07:30 Economic Data Roundup 08:04 Housing Slump Signals 09:16 Fed Outlook and Warsh Takeaways 11:18 Oil and Midstream Positioning 11:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| "The Most Performative Interest Rate Hike Ever" | 18 Sep 2026 | 00:23:29 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuI David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Trump, including Trump’s post calling for 1% rates while diverting attention to trade deficits. Bahnsen highlights the unanimous 12–0 vote, the Fed’s focus on price stability amid supply-shock pressures, and the neutral mechanics of paying 3.9% on reserves. He reviews muted bond-market moves, elevated mortgage rates near 7%, and cautions against overreading immediate stock-market reactions, emphasizing earnings, AI, oil, and valuations as bigger drivers than the fed funds rate. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Week 00:44 Why the Fed Matters 02:08 Performative Rate Hike 05:11 Politics and Independence 10:54 Midterms and Next Hike 11:52 Unanimous Vote Rationale 14:34 Bond Market Reaction 17:02 Stocks and Volatility 19:05 Practical Takeaways 21:28 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - September 17, 2026 | 17 Sep 2026 | 00:06:05 | |
Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations and initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 versus 208,000, while housing starts and pending sales missed slightly. He addresses fears about AI by noting historical patterns of technology skepticism and euphoria, citing the 1990s productivity paradox and subsequent productivity surge. He also answers a question on $100+ oil alongside Fed hikes, saying it has not always signaled recession and that current expected rate increases are modest unless policy overdoes it. 00:00 Market Rebound Snapshot 00:26 Rates Oil And Rotation 00:57 Economic Data Check 01:47 AI Fear And History 03:06 Oil Fed And Recession 03:57 Wrap Up And Next Read Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - September 16, 2026 | 16 Sep 2026 | 00:06:32 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P ~-0.6%, Nasdaq ~-0.1%) but improved off the lows, with internals not signaling a major risk-off flush. Economic data included stronger-than-expected August retail sales (1.2% vs 0.8%) and weaker NAHB homebuilder sentiment. He also answers a viewer question, distinguishing price spikes in items like oil from broad inflation driven by money supply, referencing CPI/PCE and headline vs core measures. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:17 Fed Rate Decision 01:03 Yield Curve Reaction 01:28 Why Markets Lead 02:10 Economic Data Check 02:29 Market Close Snapshot 03:30 Inflation Question Explained 04:44 Wrap Up and Thanks 04:52 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - September 15, 2026 | 15 Sep 2026 | 00:09:41 | |
Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today’s resilience with 2023’s 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries. 00:00 Market Backdrop Today 00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math 02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient 04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction 05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries 07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - September 14, 2026 | 14 Sep 2026 | 00:15:51 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes heightened volatility, a brief 10-year yield move above 5%, and sector performance led by communication services while technology lagged. He says credit spreads remain benign but will be key to watch. He covers August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), elevated PPI (5.4% y/y), tanker shipping up ~300% amid Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, cooling housing markets, the Fed meeting with an 86% implied hike probability, and WTI crude above $100 after a Saudi pipeline shutdown. 00:00 Welcome Back Monday 01:08 Program Cadence Explained 03:24 Market Selloff Recap 04:30 Anthropic AI Warning 07:28 Volatility and Credit Signals 09:05 Policy and AI Regulation 09:45 Inflation CPI and PPI 10:55 Shipping and Housing Cooling 12:04 Fed Meeting Rate Decision 13:18 Oil Surge and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| What 9/11 Meant and Still Means for Investors | 11 Sep 2026 | 00:23:37 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance. 00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro 02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors 03:26 Markets Before the Attacks 05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen 09:28 Recovery Was Not Different 11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets 15:21 National Unity Then Now 17:41 Personal Life Lessons 20:58 Never Forget Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - September 10, 2026 | 10 Sep 2026 | 00:12:33 | |
Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line. 00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike 01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets 02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math 04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise 05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons 06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk 07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons 10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - September 9, 2026 | 09 Sep 2026 | 00:09:17 | |
Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an emerging market, undermining the Fed and increasing fiscal sensitivity and inflation premiums. He notes T-bills are ~22% of issuance vs a ~15–20% target. He discusses Japan and Europe’s zero/negative-rate policies often producing unintended outcomes (carry trades, deleveraging, higher saving). No major data today; PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:33 Treasury Buyback Buzz 01:57 Yield Curve Control Limits 03:20 Why Borrowing Long Matters 04:13 Fed Mandate And Inflation Risk 05:16 Japan Zero Rate Lessons 06:33 Europe Negative Rate Backfire 07:18 Wrap Up And Data Ahead Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - September 8, 2026 | 08 Sep 2026 | 00:06:45 | |
Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday’s CPI as the key market-moving event. He discusses the strong nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 vs. ~58,000 expected) alongside discrepancies with private payroll measures, with unemployment around 4.1% and the Fed seen as having a ~60% chance of a September hike amid a split committee and upcoming midterms. He also addresses client concerns about the Hugging Face incident and argues AI will both strengthen and intensify cybersecurity threats, with costs ultimately passed to consumers. 00:00 Market Wrap Kickoff 00:38 Oil Spike And Inflation 01:13 Key Data And CPI Watch 01:38 Jobs Report Breakdown 02:51 Fed Rate Hike Odds 03:28 Cybersecurity And AI Risks 04:47 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| The Real AI Problem Made Simple | 04 Sep 2026 | 00:30:44 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hbt99a This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow is falling or turning negative under enormous AI compute and data center CapEx. It notes high customer concentration and interconnectivity across the ecosystem, including Nvidia’s revenue reliance on three customers and AI labs’ heavy dependence on a small share of customers, alongside purchase commitments far exceeding current revenues. The central risk, the host argues, is whether capital markets continue funding the buildout and on what terms before profitable utilization arrives. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:58 AI Everywhere Now 04:02 The Missing Investor Issue 06:16 Capex Funding Frenzy 07:59 Earnings Up Cashflow Down 09:44 Off Balance Sheet Reality 12:14 Why AI Economics Flip SaaS 16:28 Unknowns Behind Monetization 19:11 Return on Capital Question 20:58 Capex Bubble Spillover Risk 22:50 Concentration and Connectivity 24:10 Capital Markets Are The Gate 28:32 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - September 3, 2026 | 03 Sep 2026 | 00:08:57 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a strong Thursday rally in risk assets after a modestly positive prior session, citing improved market breadth, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, slightly lower rates, and reduced September hike odds from 68% to 50/50 amid a split committee, easing inflation, and a normalizing labor market; he also notes political sensitivity ahead of November midterms. The Dow rose 624 points, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, with strength in mega-cap tech and semis. He highlights wide sector dispersion (88% of financials above the 200-day vs. 94% of semis down 20% from highs), low volatility and shallow drawdowns, and historically positive 12-month periods after midterms. Economic data were solid: jobless claims 206K, ISM services 55.4, and a slightly narrower July trade deficit. He addresses a question on Trump Media’s Truth API, arguing it’s ethically questionable but not a major market needle-mover for long-term investors, and signs off ahead of Labor Day weekend. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:26 Fed Talk and Rate Odds 02:30 Sector Dispersion Signals 03:04 Volatility and Midterm Patterns 04:28 Economic Data Scorecard 05:00 Truth API and Trading Edge 06:53 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - September 2, 2026 | 02 Sep 2026 | 00:06:47 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained steeper than recent periods. Economic data were mixed: ADP private payrolls missed slightly (38K vs. 47K expected) while July factory orders rose 0.9%. He then addresses whether buying back one’s own debt is intrinsically wrong, arguing it’s virtuous for individuals paying off loans, but for countries it often reflects refinancing via central bank actions (e.g., QE), which can support liquidity yet distort markets if done excessively. 00:00 Market Rebound Overview 00:24 Key Data Ahead 00:52 Rates Oil And Internals 01:16 Today Economic Prints 01:43 Debt Buyback Question 01:56 Personal Debt Payoff 02:21 Central Bank Mechanics 02:53 QE And Yield Curve Effects 04:05 When It Goes Too Far 04:43 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - September 1, 2026 | 01 Sep 2026 | 00:08:47 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar’s basket weight recently increased to 43%. 00:00 September Market Recap 00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump 01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation 01:45 Economic Data Check 02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures 03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss 04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders 06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits 06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - August 31, 2026 | 31 Aug 2026 | 00:13:19 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:05 Market Snapshot 02:13 Midterm Election Outlook 05:32 Housing and Rent Update 05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways 07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets 09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus 11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal 12:06 September Midterm Seasonality 12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Profit from the Profit Part 2 | 28 Aug 2026 | 00:27:20 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps focus on individual company profits and reduces emotional extremes. He addresses five objections: buybacks as superior capital return (unreliable, often suspended, and frequently offset by share issuance); dividends as tax-inefficient (many accounts aren’t taxable, and dividends can improve behavior versus large embedded gains); dividends making companies “poorer” (stewardship and reinvestment choice matter); Berkshire not paying dividends (it receives dividends as a holding company); and dividends being only for retirees (starting earlier captures yield-on-cost compounding). 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 03:08 Why Dividend Growth Matters 06:59 Common Critiques Overview 08:35 Buybacks Versus Dividends 13:17 Dividends and Taxes 15:32 Does Paying Dividends Reduce Value 19:31 The Berkshire Dividend Myth 20:57 Dividend Growth for Young Investors 24:19 Closing Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - August 27, 2026 | 27 Aug 2026 | 00:07:41 | |
Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods trade deficit of $118 billion, which he frames within the dollar-based reserve system. He also discusses US-Canada tariff tensions, arguing trade wars are zero-sum and ultimately hurt consumers and the economy. Addressing low S&P 500 dividend yield concerns, he says the decline is largely price-driven and maintains confidence in dividend growth investing focused on efficient capital use, including dividends and buybacks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:24 AI Earnings Lift Markets 01:08 Rates Oil and Data 02:00 Trade Deficit Explained 03:02 Tariffs and Trade Wars 03:44 Dividend Yield Concerns 04:06 Why Dividends Still Win 05:40 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - August 26, 2026 | 26 Aug 2026 | 00:08:42 | |
Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan’s weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - August 25, 2026 | 25 Aug 2026 | 00:08:02 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing index, reinforcing macro-driven moves. He notes the S&P is up about 12% YTD while earnings rose around 15–16%, leading to multiple contraction to about 18.8x forward earnings, though other valuation measures (EV/sales, Shiller CAPE, price-to-book/sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow) remain near historically overvalued levels. He also addresses declining prime-age male labor participation and argues immigration trends show little correlation, pointing instead to broader societal and economic factors. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:18 Market Rally Recap 00:41 Rates Oil and Data 01:50 Earnings and Multiples 02:44 Valuation Reality Check 03:28 Rotation to Value 04:04 Labor Force Demographics 06:13 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Monday - August 24, 2026 | 24 Aug 2026 | 00:18:52 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group’s new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow. 00:00 Welcome From Montecito 01:06 Market Snapshot Today 01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated 02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained 05:53 Did It Work Short Term 06:59 Can It Work Long Term 07:55 Why Long Yields Rose 12:05 Concerns About Intervention 13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat 15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole 16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Profit from the Profit Part 1 | 21 Aug 2026 | 00:20:04 | |
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cNKVg3 David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe from Southern California and previews his new book, Profit from the Profit, releasing Tuesday, explaining it reflects the same message he has shared weekly since starting the commentary during the September 2008 financial crisis and later branding it Dividend Cafe in 2015. He outlines an investment philosophy focused on connecting client outcomes to real business profits and prioritizing what companies do over market sentiment, arguing dividend growth investing seeks sustainable returns from company cash flows and dividends rather than relying on investor psychology. Bahnsen explains why he discusses macro headlines even though he avoids frequent portfolio changes, emphasizing a bottom-up approach intended to be insulated from news. He recounts learning these lessons after the dot-com bust and highlights dividend growth’s withdrawal and accumulation benefits, with upcoming book topics including taxes, volatility, and how investors should profit from profits via durable dividends. 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 01:04 How Dividend Cafe Began 03:03 Core Philosophy of Profits 06:12 Sentiment Versus Fundamentals 09:22 News Commentary Without Trading 11:59 Personal Journey to Dividends 15:13 Key Themes From the New Book 17:01 Closing Thanks and Commitment Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Thursday - August 20, 2026 | 20 Aug 2026 | 00:07:07 | |
Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets (Dow -703, S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1%) and notes blue-chip weakness despite better-than-expected earnings, attributing it to consumer budget pressure from higher energy prices. He discusses yield-curve moves with short-end yields rising more than the long end after Treasury talk of buying back longer-dated bonds funded by T-bills, framing it largely as signaling with political relevance to midterms, gas prices, and housing affordability tied to long rates. He previews Jackson Hole as unlikely to deliver major Fed guidance and highlights strong data including the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (47.4 vs. 25 expected) and slightly better initial jobless claims (206 vs. 210). He answers a viewer question on inflation-proofing dividend returns, emphasizing dividend growth stocks whose rising cash flows can outpace inflation and compound over time. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:21 Consumer Strain Signals 01:05 Yield Curve Moves 01:12 Treasury Buyback Politics 02:03 Jackson Hole Preview 02:26 Economic Data Highlights 03:06 Rates and Growth Context 03:33 Inflation Proof Dividends 04:06 Dividend Growth Math 05:03 Closing and Weekend Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Wednesday - August 19, 2026 | 19 Aug 2026 | 00:07:58 | |
Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan’s debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||
| Tuesday - August 18, 2026 | 18 Aug 2026 | 00:07:22 | |
Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 million versus 1.3 million expected, import prices fell 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% rise, and industrial production came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. He argues media “doomsdayism” about higher long-end yields overlooks longer-term context, with 30-year yields around 5.3% being normal historically, while acknowledging deficit and debt risks and linking higher growth to higher yields. He also cautions that CEO insider buying is only one data point and not a standalone investment thesis, emphasizing bottom-up fundamental analysis. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 01:04 Housing Data Misses 01:41 Inflation and Production 02:12 Bond Yields Perspective 02:49 Debt Fears and Growth 04:21 Insider Buying Reality 05:11 Fundamentals Over Tips 05:26 Closing and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com | |||