Explore every episode of the podcast The Dismal Science

When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the prospects for more to come. 

For more insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell head to https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.

In this week's episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump's unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week's RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week.

For more from AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table.

Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html

Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

The Reserve Bank keeps hiking and there's more to go Governor Lowe says. But with protesters hitting Martin Place, will the bank be able to withstand the public pressure to slow up? Plus, Australian GDP keeps growing despite the cost pressures, job ads are up again and we talk about the persistence of inequality in Communist China.

Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to 'keep at it' raising interest rates, house prices in Australia are falling, we take a look at the ideas from the Jobs Summit, and the future of Ethereum.

Australia's flash Purchasing Managers' Index has fallen into contractionary territory. Is it a sign of a slowdown to come? Plus, we preview this week's Jackson Hole monetary policy jamboree.

The latest data out of China shows the slowdown deepening. The People's Bank of China has bucked the trend in the rest of the world by cutting interest rates. Will Chinese authorities also be forced to reconsider their zero covid stance? Plus, Australian unemployment falls again but wages remain sluggish and UK inflation hits double digits.

As tensions increase between China and Taiwan, we look at the risks for the global economy. Plus, business and consumer confidence continue to diverge and US inflation eases.

The IMF says the outlook for global growth is increasingly gloomy and uncertain, Australia's productivity growth is its lowest in 60 years, the Reserve Bank continues to hike rates and the US is in recession. We're not called The Dismal Science for nothing.

Is the situation in Sri Lanka a harbinger of an emerging market debt crisis? We look at the pressure emerging markets face from rising costs and interest rates. Plus, we catch up on the extraordinary unemployment result for June, the RBA review and the mortgage boycott in China.

Who should be on the Reserve Bank board? Economists are calling for more, uh, economists. But is monetary policy an entirely technocratic endeavour? Or should the views from businesspeople and workers be represented? Plus, retail sales are holding up, a call to arms from the central bankers' central bank and Russia's debt default.

The market has the cash rate in Australia at 3.6% by year's end, up from the current 0.85%. This would be the sharpest tightening in three decades. RBA Governor Lowe thinks this is unlikely but concedes the market has had a better record than the bank at forecasting rates. So who is right? And can the economy handle it? Plus, iron ore plummets and NSW takes on stamp duty.

A bit going on. The Fed is tightening, markets are freaking, crypto is collpasing. Are we headed for a global recession? While at home, will the Fair Work Commission's decision to raise the minimum wage fuel inflation?

This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure.

Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falling living standards?

We also look at what's driving Australia's poor economic performance relative to other OECD nations.

Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html

Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

The world is facing a period of prolonged stagflation akin to the 70s, according to the World Bank. Are there any reasons for hope amid the ongoing global omnicrisis? And what lessons can we take from the 70s experience? Plus, the Reserve Bank's biggest rate hike in two decades and what to do about gas prices.

Amid calls for a wide-ranging review of the RBA, we look at what's at stake. Plus, house prices fall, a preview of next week's interest rate decision, Q1 GDP and trouble in the Eurozone.

Paul Keating said when the government changes, the country changes. But does the economy change? We ponder the economic implications of the election. Plus, people are moving jobs again, capex goes backwards and China's slowdown.

Unemployment is now lower than it's ever been but real wages continue to go backwards. What can we do about it? Plus, is it a good idea to let people draw on their super to buy a house?

The RBA has lifted the cash rate for the first time in more than a decade. How much more is there to go? And is there a risk of a hard landing if they go too quickly?

We run through the latest labour market data and ask whether it's ok for a Prime Ministerial candidate not to know the unemployment rate. Plus, business and consumer confidence, US inflation and how far might house prices fall?

The Reserve Bank is signalling it will raise rates imminently, while the Fed Reserve is about to embark on quantitative tightening. But how soon and how quickly can central banks normalise monetary policy without scaring the horses?

The budget position is better than expected and treasury forecasts are rosy for the Australian economy. Are they overly optimistic given the uncertainty in the world? Plus, retail sales rebound from omicron and the yield curve inverts again.

An OECD simulation warns of a 1 percentage point hit to global growth from the war in Ukraine, consumer confidence dives on cost of living concerns and we preview the budget.

The global economy is being hit hard by supply shocks - first war in Ukraine and now the covid resurgence in China. Will higher food and commodity prices flow through to inflation expectations? What are central banks to do? How dependent is the German economy on Russian gas? And what is going on in the nickel market? Plus, the Australian jobs miracle continues.

We are reposting this episode because it originally had an audio glitch. Apologies. Ivan's fault.

This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe's economic powerhouse - Germany.

We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing.

We discuss whether these challenges are merely cyclical or point to deeper structural issues with the German economic model.

With a shrinking workforce, rising fiscal pressures, and declining global trade, is "Germanification" a cautionary tale for other advanced economies, including Australia?

We also examine the impact of China's growing dominance in key industries, particularly the automotive sector, where Chinese companies are now leading the world in EV production. Can Germany adapt and compete, or is its era of economic dominance over?

Surging prices, war in Ukraine, the spectre of nuclear conflict – how worried should we be? This episode was recorded live last week in Melbourne at the Australian Governance Summit.

Wages growth is off the pandemic floor but remains historically weak. How low can unemployment go in Australia before we start to see inflationary pressures? Plus, we look at the potential eocnomic impact of war in Ukraine.

We are back! Markets are roiling at the prospect of interest rate hikes over 2022. Will central banks take away the punchbowl? Should we be worried about a crash? Plus, a mixed confidence picture in Australia as we emerge from Omciron and the latest on Evergrande's debt workout.

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's quiz, look ahead to 2022 and run through The Dismal Science summer reading list. Plus, the final extremely strong jobs numbers for 2022, Biden's troubled stimulus bill and the MYEFO. We'll be back with more episodes in late January.

Directors have identified labour shortages as the biggest economic challenge facing Australian business, according to the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index. Plus, the Australian residential property market passes $9 trillion in value, record job ads and European carbon prices skyrocket.

Our founding economist Stephen Walters, now NSW Chief Economist, comes back for our 100th episode to reflect on what's changed in economics since we started in 2017 and his role in advising the NSW government during the pandemic. Plus, 3Q GDP turns out not to be as bad as we feared, Omicron looms on the horizon, another record current account surplus and house prices keep on going up.

Grab bag this week for our 99th episode: Four more years for Jerome Powell, President Biden taps the US strategic oil reserves, PMIs turn positive for Australia and decentralised autonomous organisations.

The COP26 climate talks were largely a failure against their stated goals. So is there any hope for the future of negotiations and the planet? Plus, wages remain subdued, the RBA's view on the inflation debate and the war for talent.

We go back to the Paris Agreement and ask if its vision, particularly restraining warming to less than 2 degrees, can be met at COP26 and beyond. Plus, central banks begin the task of unwinding unconventional pandemic support programs.

The government announces a 'plan' for net zero, plus is the inflation genie coming for Australia?

This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut.

Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be?

Plus, the Dismal Science takes a metaphorical visit to Baku for COP 29 and finds "upside-down geopolitics" at play.

And will President Trump's reelection derail the action items out of COP29?

Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au

The China economy is creaking. Could the crash be coming and what can the authorities do to stop it? Plus, the market questions the RBA, lockdowns hit the job market and how COVID impacts football performance.

NSW reopens and spending takes off, the Great Resignation, a global tax deal and a Nobel Prize for natural experiments.

Gas shortages are leading to spiraling energy prices across the world. Are we headed for another era of stagflation? Plus, APRA tries to cool the housing market, another record trade surplus for Australia, and should the US mint a trillion dollar coin?

"Everything Evergrande owns belongs to the Party and the Chinese people," Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan once said. Will the Chinese people now own the crashing property company's $300bn of debt or is China headed for a financial crisis? Plus, housing affordability, monetary tapering and vaccinating the world. This is a long one but we're taking next week off so listen at your leisure.

Large parts of the economy are in 'wait, survive and see' mode, according to RBA governor Philip Lowe. We look at the latest deceptive unemployment data, the OECD's Australian economy fan fiction for a post-pandemic world, house prices and urban planning, as well as US inflation, the softening in the Chinese economy and central banks' role in fighting climate change. It's a big one!

The RBA is expecting the economy to bounce back in December but should the halting recovery of other more open economies around the world be tempering our optimism? Plus, is the China property bubble about to burst?

The Delta lockdowns have caused widespread job losses and decimated consumer demand. Were economic policymakers inadequately prepared for the downside risks of a new COVID strain? Plus, Q2 GDP, takeaways from this year's Jackson Hole conference, and the Taliban economy.

The latest confidence numbers tell a tale of two Australias as the bickering continues over the national COVID strategy. Plus, the case for board diversity.

As more of Australia goes into lockdown, the RBA is maintaining what some are describing as a 'bizarrely' optimistic view of the recovery. Plus, a weird jobs report and the OG gold standard.

Despite the lockdowns, businesses and consumers are clinging to vaccine hope. Plus, the IPCC's Code Red, US infrastructure and China's billionaires.

Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result.

We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates, inflation, growth, and other economic variables.

President Trump's proposals could send US average tariff rates to their highest level since the 1934 Great Depression. What would this mean for inflation, the US dollar, and the global economy?

We also explore the potential impact of tax cuts and deregulation on growth and profits, as well as the implications for the Federal Reserve and US debt and deficits.

And is this a sign of a broader global shift away from neoliberalism?

Tune in to find out.

Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au

Guided by the Doherty Institute modelling, National Cabinet has outlined the path out, but much is still uncertain. Plus, can cash incentives work for vaccinations and the rise of buy now pay later. Apologies for the audio on this one, we had some technical difficulties.

Base effects are starting to show up as inflation spikes in Australia. But with Delta ravaging the Australian and world economies, is inflation the least of our concerns? Plus, UK's Freedom Day two weeks on.

The shut down of the construction industry is another hammer blow to the NSW economy. Are policymakers doing enough to soften the impact? Plus, vaccine hesitancy and we ask if hosting the Olympics is worth it.