The DeFi Report – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices

2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair

7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation

10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment

12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective

18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies

20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence

21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook

23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery

25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior

27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners

29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends

32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind

39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals

40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights

42:41 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset, and how investor “envy” distorts cycle perception. Mike lays out realistic downside scenarios, key support levels to watch, and the onchain signals he needs to see before deploying capital.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio Analysis

8:19 Understanding Gold's Outperformance

13:12 China's Impact on Gold Demand

14:27 Bitcoin's Future as a Reserve Asset

16:27 Potential Bottom for Bitcoin Ratio

20:25 Market Sentiment & Investor Behavior

26:35 Onchain Metrics and Market Conditions

33:41 The Future of Real World Assets in Crypto

34:59 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan lay out Mike’s full portfolio construction framework for a crypto bear market. We walk through how he sizes Bitcoin as the anchor, how core and high-beta assets fit into the cycle, and why price matters more than narratives right now. Mike also shares fair value targets across nearly 30 assets, explains why most investors rush entries too early, and what signals he’s waiting for before going risk-on again.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Market Overview & Conditions

4:03 Constructing a Portfolio

7:00 Importance of Bitcoin

10:41 Core Assets Explained

13:26 Long-Term Holds Strategy

14:06 Risk-On Assets Discussion

17:36 Price Targets for Each Sleeve

20:54 Core Asset Candidates

29:13 Long-Term Holds & Watchlist

33:13 Meme Coins and Market Cycles

36:41 Analyzing the Watchlist

40:30 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is pushing toward $100K, but is the move real or just a positioning unwind? Mike and Ryan break down the CPI surprise, real rates and breakevens, why global liquidity still looks like it’s rolling over, and what the onchain data says about true demand, from ETF flows to long term holder selling, open interest, and funding. Mike explains what would convince him this rally can reclaim $100K as support, and why he’s still staying patient and largely in cash.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Next Stop: $100K Bitcoin?

1:10 Positive Price Action

4:54 Powell's Prosecution & Market Impact

6:08 Bitcoin's Moment?

9:14 Understanding Real Rates & CPI

12:19 Global Liquidity & Bitcoin

17:57 Onchain Data Insights

21:47 Market Demand Signals

26:14 Anticipating Market Reactions

32:15 Upcoming Assets on the Watchlist

35:44 Closing

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Today on The DeFi Report, we’re mapping the 2026 setup: shifting fiscal flows, tighter liquidity, and why rate cuts are not automatically bullish for crypto. Mike stays risk off (80 percent cash) while he watches for the signals that would force a pivot, falling real yields, a dovish Fed, and Bitcoin reclaiming key levels. We also break down where we are in the market cycle, why a counter rally could be a trap, and what Mike’s $65K fair value target implies for positioning this year.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:10 Setup for 2026

5:54 Macro & Liquidity Setup

8:46 2022 Comparison 

11:40 U.S. Liquidity Cycle Insights

13:20 Bitcoin & Interest Rates

16:34 Labor Market Insights

18:49 Real Estate Trends

21:04 Midterm Year Implications

23:30 Asset Allocation Cycle

26:18 Crypto Cycle Analysis

29:38 Transition Phase in Crypto

34:23 Geopolitical X Factor

37:12 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Fed cut rates and announced $40B/month in T bill purchases. Is that the signal to buy back into crypto? Mike says no. In this episode, we explain why “QE light” is not real easing, the key indicators Mike needs before flipping risk on, and what Bitcoin’s onchain market structure suggests about where this cycle could go next.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction to the DeFi Report

2:28 Current Market Positioning

9:25 Federal Reserve's Actions Explained

13:13 Economic Conditions & Predictions

18:35 Big Picture of Economic Strategy

23:17 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Structure

29:57 Closing & Future Outlook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only. 

Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin

4:24 Mining & Network Security

8:08 Fees & Block Rewards

11:20 Security Budget Risks

14:25 The Future of Mining

15:57 Address Trends & Activity

22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge

25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin

28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets

30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns

33:34 The Future of Bitcoin

36:43 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:24 The Tension of Deployment

3:46 Market Positioning Updates

4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators

7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value

11:44 Market Value to Realized Value

15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average

18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value

20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty

24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value

28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions

33:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE

https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights

8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions

12:20 Impact on the Bond Market

12:31 AI & Investor Psychology

20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market

26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update

35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals
6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative
9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets
12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?
15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era
19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts
22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks
26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts
29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends
33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook
35:24 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.