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Explore every episode of the podcast The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Dive into the complete episode list for The Decision-Making Studio Podcast. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Ep. 228: Dave Snowden - On How to Make Sense of an Uncertain World15 sept. 202400:58:57

Today, my guest is Dave Snowden, a leading expert in complexity theory and knowledge management. Dave is the creator of the Cynefin Framework, which is a tool for understanding challenges and helping us make decisions within the right context. His work is international in nature. It covers government and industry, looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He is a popular and passionate keynote speaker on a range of topics, and he's well-known for his pragmatic cynicism - and you will hear that come through as you listen to this episode.

I wish I had come across Dave's work earlier in my career because I think I'd have made some different career choices. In particular, his 2007 Harvard Business Review article with Mary Boone is excellent. It was on the cover of the November edition of the HBR and won the Academy of Management Award for Best Paper of that year.

In this episode, we dive into the nuances of decision-making in complex environments. He walks us through the Cynefin Framework and how it helps us understand the challenges at hand. Dave shares insights into how organizations can avoid the pitfalls of traditional decision-making approaches that often oversimplify complex issues. We also explore the role of narrative in making sense of complexity and how his work with something called SenseMaker, supports capturing and interpreting diverse perspectives. If you're interested in how to navigate complexity and make better decisions in uncertain times, this episode is a must-listen.

Show notes:

Dave Snowden

The Cynefin Framework

Dave and Mary Boone’s 2007 HBR Article, “A Leader’s Framework for Decision-Making”

SenseMaker

Estuarine Mapping

EU Field Guide to Managing Complexity (and Chaos) in Times of Crisis

Wardley Maps - A strategic mapping technique that helps organizations understand and adapt to their competitive landscape.

Gary Klein’s Pre-mortem

Max Boisot’s I-Space

London taxi drivers’ “The Knowledge”

Taylorism

Agile

Hawthorne effect

Cynefin’s ‘risk matrix’

Abductive thinking

Dave on algorithmic induction

Dave on AI: “anthropomorphising idiot savants”

_ _ _ _

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Ep. 227: Jonny Miller - On Nervous System Mastery and Decision-Making04 sept. 202401:36:05

Today, we delve into the role of our nervous system in decision-making, and we explore whether the best decision-making is emotional. This one will perhaps make you think differently about that. That does not mean that we ought to decide impulsively or like a toddler, but it does mean that we should integrate our emotional states into our decision-making. And doing that is a skill that involves knowing how to work with our nervous system.

My guest is Jonny Miller, who makes his second appearance on the show. Jonny works with leaders and founders on burnout and how to regulate their nervous systems. He was a successful startup founder himself, but for the last several years has studied and practised nervous system mastery intensely, he has curated the most effective evidence-based practices he's found, and he leads a program called Nervous System Mastery.

On this episode, we cover breathwork and how to regulate our nervous system, how to work with our emotions, the body and its role in emotions and decision-making, why Johnny believes that the best decision-making is indeed emotional, making decisions in triggered states and how to avoid that, leadership, and so much more.

Show notes:

Jonny’s website

Jonny’s Nervous System Mastery programme

Jonny’s article “Why The Best Decision-Making is Emotional”

Curious Humans with Jonny Miller

Rory Sutherland

Iain McGilchrist

Confabulation

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates

The Sports Gene by David Epstein

Patrick McKeown, The Oxygen Advantage – Ep. 137 of  our podcast

The Body Keeps the Score by Bessel van der Kolk

Non-sleep deep rest

_ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 226: Paul Orlando - Why Now? How to Harness the Power of Great Timing22 août 202401:08:28

Today, our focus is on timing. How much of a success or failure is because of timing? To answer that question, I welcome Paul Orlando back to the show. Paul is an expert in the world of startups, having built and operated startup accelerators around the world. He teaches at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.

He is the author of a fascinating new book, Why Now? How Good Timing Makes Great Products. Paul and this conversation will make you think differently about the role of timing in decision-making. You will understand why you never want to be “ahead of your time”, you want to be at the right time.

That is driven home by an example that Paul shares at the outset and something that I didn't know about. The first video phone was launched back in 1964. And the reason why it didn't take off is because of timing.

This is a fabulous conversation in which Paul shares the myth of first-mover advantage, serendipity, his timing drivers, problem-finding versus problem-solving, AI and timing, and so much more.

Show notes:

Paul on LinkedIn

Why Now – How Good Timing Makes Great Products

Startups Unplugged

Paul’s previous episode on the podcast

YouTube version of the episode

_ _ _ _ _

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Inbetweenisode: Risk - We're Breaking Up19 août 202400:04:27

 

We are changing our name. Why?

This tongue-in-cheek Inbetweenisode explains

Ep. 225: Alex Edmans - On "May Contain Lies"08 août 202400:53:59

Today, I am delighted to welcome Alex Edmans to the show. You may have heard of him or you may have come across him. He is a Professor of Finance at London Business School. He was voted professor of the year by Poets and Quants. He is also a prominent speaker and an author, including of his most recent and fabulous book, May Contain Lies -  How Stories, Statistics and Studies Exploit Our Biases.  He joined me to talk about the book.

The book is excellent because it emphasises a number of things crucial to good decision-making, including things like why a fact is not data, data is not evidence, and evidence is not proof. Alex shares his work on things like football results and their impact on stock market performance, biases, evaluating research, ESG investing, trade-offs, cognitive diversity, dissenting viewpoints, and much more related to decision-making.

Show notes:

Alex’s website

May Contain Lies – How Stores, Statistics and Studies Exploit Our Biases

Alex on football results and stock market sentiment

McKinsey’s “Diversity Matters” results revisited by Jeremiah Green and John Hand

_ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 224: Michael Hartley: On Decision-Making, Human Factors, Data, Culture and more01 août 202401:25:45

Today I welcome fellow Canadian Michael Hartley to the show. Michael is the director of InterKnowlogy, mining and energy. And that is a firm that operates at the intersection of risk management, human factors and data science to enhance decision-making. This conversation covers a wide range of fascinating stuff, mostly about how decisions get made during complexity and crises, mostly from Michael's background in energy and mining. However, the insights are applicable to a huge number of other contexts. And we cover the importance of decision making and critical thinking, understanding when decisions get made in organizations, data quality and presenting information, managing crises, AI and much more.

Show Notes:

Michael on LinkedIn

InterKnowlogy

Books and Papers

  • "Thinking in Systems: A Primer" by Donella H. Meadows
  • "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • "The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization" by Peter M. Senge

Concepts and Tools

Additional Resources

_ _ _ _

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Ep. 223: Monique Borst - On Leadership, Emotional Mastery, Time, and More11 juil. 202401:30:41

Today, I am joined by Monique Borst, who is a coach, a strategist, a CEO catalyst, and as she describes it, "Human WD-40." She helps leaders thrive and wants to redefine modern business leadership. 

And this is a conversation all about leadership, including self-leadership, self-awareness, and emotional mastery. And if you are or if you aspire to be in a leadership position or you work with leaders, then I think you are going to be in for an eye-opening conversation.

We cover so much here from how to think about our personal and professional lives, emotions in decision-making, seeking diverse perspectives when making decisions, and experience over analysis, and we also have a fabulous, fascinating conversation about the concept of time.  

Show notes:

Monique’s website

Monique on LinkedIn

Monique’s newsletter

Andrew Huberman scandal

Niksen – the Dutch concept of doing nothing

HBR Article – Manage Your Energy Not Your Time

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Ep. 222: Marta Cadavid - On "No Fraud"26 juin 202401:12:58

Today, we talk about fraud and human behaviour. And my guest is Marta Cadavid. Marta describes herself as a “fraud fighter.” She's worked in anti-fraud roles for many years. And her interest, as you'll hear, started in her native Colombia. And she's now a partner in a very interesting firm called No Fraud, which uses prediction models to anticipate criminal behaviour. Yes, you heard that right, to anticipate criminal behaviour. So there's lots to discuss here.

Marta also hosts her own podcast called “Fraude al Desnudo”, or “Naked Fraud”. And we get into lots of interesting stuff in this episode, including the role of decision-making environments in fraud and financial crime, monitoring employee behaviour, and some of the intricacies of that using AI, bias in AI, eye, cultural and behavioural factors, the cost of fraud, sexual harassment, and much more. I do have my questions on this as you'll hear. I am sure you will find this one contains lots of food for thought. Marta is very insightful.

Show notes:

Marta on LinkedIn

NoFraud

Fraude al Desnudo

The Fraud Triangle

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Ep. 221: Melina Moleskis - On Meta Decisions, and more10 juin 202401:15:23

Today, I am delighted to be joined by fellow decision-making professional Melina Moleskis. I came across Melina via Christian Hunt, who I've had on the show a couple of times now. Melina and I featured in a two-part series on decision-making in Christian's Human Risk podcast

Melina is the founder of Meta Decisions, a consultancy that leverages decision and behavioural science to help people and organizations make better decisions. She has a PhD in managerial science, an MBA from NYU Stern, and a bachelor's degree in mathematics. 

And she takes all that training and applies it in very useful and interesting ways. You will hear a lot of that reflected in this wonderful conversation that covered so much interesting ground from:

  • what the decision and behavioural sciences are;
  • the concept of indecisiveness and how to overcome that;
  • dealing with complexity
  • documenting decisions -This is something that is actually quite overlooked at times:
  • “Kill criteria”
  • the state of decision education

·      And we even get into some discussion about sport and its role in decision-making as a microcosm of good decisions. Melina has a great perspective on that because she's also a former competitive basketball player.

Show notes:

Melina on LinkedIn

Melina’s firm Meta Decisions

What’s Your Problem by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg

Adam Grant

The Alliance for Decision Education on Keeping a Decision Journal

Emotional Agility by Susan David

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Ep. 220: Fraser Battye - Part Two of Two: On Uncertainty, Options, Creativity Cognitive Biases and more29 mai 202400:54:17

This is Part Two of Two with Fraser Battye of the NHS Strategy Unit. If you haven’t heard Part One, I suggest you give it a listen, although it’s not strictly necessary. This episode is a continuation of the same conversation and covers creativity, uncertainty, cognitive biases and the limits of nudges.

Show notes:

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Ep. 219: Fraser Battye - Part One of Two: On Decision-Making, Creativity, Leadership, and More28 mai 202401:10:28

Today we have Part One of my two part conversation with Fraser Battye. Fraser is a Principal at the Strategy Unit of the UK National Health Service the NHS, and the Strategy Unit provides analysis and strategic change expertise. As part of that role, Fraser provides expert guidance on decision-making. And this is a two-part conversation which covers a huge number of fascinating dimensions of decision-making. In Part One, we cover :

  • balancing values with ethical considerations,
  • integrating the two brain hemispheres into the decision-making process
  • decision options as theories to test
  • AI and decision-making, and a lot more there

Show notes:

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 218: Nuno Reis, PhD - On Uncertainty, The Dangers of Probability Dogma, and more17 mai 202401:30:04

Today, I have the pleasure of welcoming Nuno Reis to the show. I came across Nuno via his LinkedIn posts on uncertainty and in particularly around something called Bayesian Analysis or Bayesian Thinking. If you’ve never come across the term, Bayesian Analysis is the mathematical interpretation of probability. And it underpins so much of our world  - and increasingly so because many AI models are built on Bayesian Thinking.

Nuno is quite critical of how Bayesian Thinking is applied – because we can never remove the human from the numbers and the models. He says that an embrace of Bayesian Thinking – useful as it is, has become an unhealthy dogma. And – that resonated with me particularly because as I looked at Nuno’s background I saw someone saying this who is a trained mathematician with a PhD in Mathematics in String Theory and did a postdoc at Oxford. He worked in the financial sector during the Global Financial Crisis where he sees parallels now in the worlds of AI and related areas.

So, I invited him to the show and we had a great conversation that covers not only the topics of Bayesian Thinking, the financial industry, but also the topic of uncertainty, lots of philosophy and running.

I hope you enjoy it and find it insightful. Here is Nuno Reis.

Show notes:

Nuno on LinkedIn

Nuno’s free book, Beyond Luck

Bayesian Thinking

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Ep. 217: Nuala Walsh - On How to "Tune In" to Make Smarter Decisions in a Noisy World27 avr. 202401:17:08

In this episode, we talk about “tuning in” – into a noisy world so that we can make the best decisions possible. My guest is Nuala Walsh. Nuala is a best-selling author, an adjunct professor of behavioural science at Trinity College in Dublin, an independent non-executive director, a TEDx speaker and one of the 100 Most Influential Women in Finance. She is the author of the fabulous new book Tune In: How to Make Smarter Decisions in a Noisy World.

This conversation covers that and it is incredibly insightful and fun. Nuala shares several misjudgement ‘traps’ from her book – everything from ego to memory, power, identity and more. We also discuss whistleblowing, regret and so-called “deaf spots”. Nuala shares a number of solutions and ways forward so that we can start to “tune in” and make smarter decisions.

Show notes:

Nuala’s website

Tune In: How to Make Smarter Decisions in a Noisy World.

Nuala on Linkedin

Nuala’s Harvard Business Review article “How to Encourage Employees to Speak Up When They See Wrongdoing”

Innocence Project

Fred Clay – found innocent after 38 years for a murder he didn’t commit

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 216: Alison Taylor: On "Higher Ground" - How Business Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World17 avr. 202400:37:13

Today, I welcome back my friend Alison Taylor to the show. Alison is a clinical professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and she is also the Executive Director of Ethical Systems. She spent the last two decades consulting with multinationals on anti-corruption, risk, human rights, stakeholder engagement, and ethics and compliance.

And she is the author of the fabulous new book, Higher Ground:  How Business Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World. And one of the reasons why I think it's a fabulous book is because it opens up a long overdue grown-up conversation about business in society. Alison takes on and challenges a number of pithy myths and notions that this stuff is always easy, and that there are always win-wins all over the place. The reality is, it's quite hard.

And whether we're talking about employee unrest over racial injustice, justice, supply chains, climate change, or bribery and fraud, some of the things that may seem obvious and easy are actually anything but - doing the right thing can be very confusing, and there are lots of traps associated with it, including balancing interests, what ethics really means, how the concepts of transparency and “zero tolerance” can get in the way, and Alison shares insights on some of these challenges.

We also talk about trust, which stakeholders companies should listen to, how the book has been received (and it's been received incredibly well, but as you will hear, you'll be surprised to learn where some of the pushback has come from) and so much more. This is a great conversation!

Show notes:

Higher Ground: How Business Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World

Alison’s website

Alison on LinkedIn

Alison’s work with the World Economic Forum on the Rise and Role of the Chief Integrity Officer

Alison’s article “How to build an ethics program for a new era”

BSR

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 215: Paula Reid - On Cycling Across Ukraine02 avr. 202401:15:32

Today, I welcome back Paula Reid to the show. Paula is known as the “Adventure Psychologist” because of her expertise in adventure psychology, which is all about surviving, coping, and thriving during challenge and uncertainty. So obviously, there are huge parallels to decision-making under or uncertainty and to many of my show's themes.

And we talk a little bit about that at the outset of this episode. However, beyond that, this one is focused particularly around Paula's adventure cycling across the Ukraine from Odesa in the south to Chornobyl in the north, about 400 miles or 600 kilometres. She did so to raise money for Siobhan's Trust, now called “HopeFull” a charity involved in delivering humanitarian aid to Ukrainians.

This one covers an awful lot of ground, from adventure psychology to the origins of Paula's work in Ukraine, to the insight on trauma and mental health. Paula is actually in Ukraine as this goes out.

Video version: https://youtu.be/k_CNfLoFpDY 

Show notes:

Paula’s website

Paula’s Ukraine cycling adventure

Siobhan’s Trust (now called “HopeFull”)

Paula’s fundraising page

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 214: Laura Fox - On "Canary Risk"15 mars 202401:22:28

Today, I'm delighted to welcome Laura Fox to the show. Laura is a risk management professional and the founder of Canary Risk, a firm that helps clients with outsourced risk management and to navigate uncertainty. Canary Risk is a relatively new firm, and Laura took her own personal and professional risks to set it up, so we obviously talk about that. We also cover the state of the risk profession, hiring, cognitive diversity, values, and so much more.

Laura's enthusiasm, her curiosity, courage, and authenticity come through so well in this conversation, and my favourite part is towards the end when she talks about her own decision-making approach in deciding to set up Canary Risk. And I won't say too much here because I want you to listen to it, other than to say that it's a powerful reminder that in order to make quality decisions, we need to have clarity about what's It's important to us. And that's different for each one of us.

One-size-fits-all, never fits.

Link to video version of the podcast.

Show notes:

Canary Risk

Canary clinics

Laura on LinkedIn

Michele Wucker

Rogue Waves by Jonathan Brill

How to Measure Anything by Doug Hubbard

Decision Quality by Spetzler, Winter and Meyer

Christian Hunt

FAIR methodology

_ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 213: Colin Pereira - Decision-Making in International Journalism in High-Risk Environments01 mars 202401:03:41

Today, we discuss decision-making in international journalism, particularly when it comes to high-risk environments like conflict zones and natural disasters. My guest is Colin Pereira who was the Deputy Head of High Risk Security at the BBC and later Head of High Risk Security at ITN. Now he is a Director of the security consultancy HP Risk Management and a co-founder of Risk Pal, a risk assessment platform. Colin knows all about decision-making and risk to journalists in places like Ukraine and Gaza. 

He talks about that and the result is a fascinating conversation. We cover how decisions to deploy journalists are made, insights into covering the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the future of international journalism including misinformation, as well as Colin's own decision-making as a start-up founder.

Show notes:

Colin on LinkedIn

RiskPal

HP Risk Management

John Schofield’s death

CNN’s Clarissa Ward

Committee to Protect Journalists

_ _ _ _ _ _ 

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Ep. 212: Daniel Wagner - On The China Epiphany13 févr. 202401:02:04

This is part 2 of 2 with Daniel Wagner on focuses on his fourth and latest book about China: The China Epiphany – Comprehending China’s Relationship With America and The Rest of the World.

Show notes:

Daniel Wagner

The China Epiphany

Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era

_ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 211: Daniel Wagner - Living in China Under Zero Covid11 févr. 202401:22:12

This episode was recorded in June, 2022.

My guest is Daniel Wagner, my co-author of Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era. Daniel had just spent 15 months living and working in China with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This coincided with China’s “zero covid” policy. This is a fascinating conversation that covers:

·      Quarantine in China

·      Life in Beijing as an expat (and under zero covid)

·      Working at the AIIB

·      Geopolitics

·      Much more

Show notes:

Daniel Wagner

The China Epiphany

Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era

_ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 210: Garry Honey - On Leadership and Navigating Uncertainty04 févr. 202401:06:20

My latest guest is Garry Honey. Garry trains boards, non-executive directors, and business leaders on strategy, governance, risk, and communication. He is the founder of the consultancy Chiron Risk and runs leadership courses for various business schools.

In this conversation, we cover reputation, strategic risk, leadership, and decision-making in a crisis, why so few organizations try to map out a purpose, and a vision for their futures, uncertainty in the limits of knowledge, human factors, the problem with ESG, and so much more.

If you are a leader in an organization, or if you're interested in some of the challenges with leadership in large organizations, you will want to listen to this. It's fascinating stuff.

Show notes:

Garry on LinkedIn

Chiron Risk

Larry Fink on ESG

Ataraxia

Radical Uncertainty by Mervyn King and John Kay

The Carillion bankruptcy in the UK

Wicked problems

Wilful Blindness by Margaret Heffernan

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Ep. 209: Ben Cattaneo and Daniel Wagner: Decision-Making in the Poycrisis Era29 janv. 202401:18:33

This episode is a rather special one because it is about a book I have co-written entitled Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era and I am joined by my co-author Daniel Wagner. We are dealing with a range of overlapping and acute crises – from climate change to geopolitical upheaval and societal polarisation. At the same time, the tools and the mindset to approach decision-making are no longer fit-for-purpose.

Daniel and I discuss the polycrisis era and various aspects of it. We also cover a bit more at the end on decision-making, as we felt it was worth adding to the initial conversation. Daniel has been on the podcast previously. He is an accomplished author, country risk expert, and has recently been in Beijing and Abu Dhabi (the latter for the COP28 climate conference).

Show notes:

Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era (links on how to purchase in your geography)

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Ep. 208: Constance Dierickx - The 'Decision Doctor®' on 'Meta Leadership'19 janv. 202401:14:01

In this episode, I welcome Constance Dierickx to the show. She is known as the “Decision Doctor®” and advises leaders on high-stakes decisions (think mergers, divestments, strategic changes, crises, and so on). She has a PhD in Clinical Psychology and is the author of three books, the latest of which is called Meta Leadership – How to See What Others Don’t and Make Great Decisions. We talk about that in this episode and more including the role of physical states in decision-making, deconstructing success, the veneration of leaders, high-stakes decisions and much more.

Show notes:

Constance Dierickx

Meta Leadership – How to See What Others Don’t and Make Great Decisions

Peter Attia’s The Drive with Andy Galpin

Alan Weiss

John Stumpf

Thinkers 50

Michael Bungay Stanier

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Ep. 207: Merlin Tuttle - On Misguided Fear of Bats and Their Conservation28 déc. 202300:59:38

I was also going to release this one over Halloween, but I think that for the reasons that you will hear, it's far, far more appropriate to release it now. My guest is Dr. Merlin Tuttle, and today we talk about the conservation of bats. Merlin is a well-known American conservationist. He is the founder of Merlin Tuttle's Bat Conservation. He has studied and photographed bats for over 60 years, and in so doing, he has changed the perception of bats, from that of bats being an animal to be feared to one of them being valuable, safe, even cute, and likable. Bats also play an important role in protecting plant species, controlling deadly mosquito populations, and reducing the reliance on pesticides.

However, there is a lot more work to do because forest habitats of bats are disappearing, and bat populations are vulnerable. And as you will hear, the fear of bats is still a huge factor in all of this. This is also a conversation about fear. And we discuss that. Merlin shares his background, how and why he developed the largest collection of bat photographs anywhere in the world, bats and contagious diseases (and the myths around that). We also talk about Merlin's work protecting the bat colony of the Congress Avenue Bridge in Austin, Texas, which has now become a world-famous tourist site, and so much more.

Show notes:

Merlin Tuttle’s Bat Conservation

Merlin’s bat resources

Merlin’s video gallery

James Fairhead’s paper on the Ebola virus

Bats on the Congress Avenue Bridge in Austin, Texas

Exaggerated Disease Warnings - here you can find articles, citations, infographics for sharing all about bats and disease.

White-Nose Syndrome  

Finding, Protecting and Restoring America's Historic Bat Caves    

Pesticide Addiction: How Bats Can Help

Rabies in Perspective

Selecting a Quality Bat House 

Photo gallery

All about Austin's bats, www.austinbats.org

About MTBC field trips:

Citizen Scientists: In Search of Bats

 

Videos:

Winning Friends, Not Battles

Importance of Bats

Bats are Austin's Favorite Neighbors

Khao Chong Pran story

True Facts: Help the Bats!

Of Agaves and Bats film, https://vimeo.com/277755110

More videos for all bat values, https://www.merlintuttle.org/video-gallery/

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Ep. 206: Roger Miles - On Culture, Leadership, Performative Risk Management and more18 déc. 202301:22:58

Today's episode is a wonderful look at organizational culture, performative risk management, that is risk management theatre, ways to quickly assess a healthy culture, and much more.

My guest is the brilliant Dr. Roger Miles.

For those of you who don't know him, Roger researches and engages with many kinds of organisations about how people perceive risk and make decisions under uncertainty. He has worked on, studied, and advised organizations about ethics, culture, psychology, and risk, decision-making under stress, and many more areas.

He is the author of Conduct Risk Management: Using a Behavioral Approach to Protect Your Board and Financial Services.

Conduct risk simply means the risk of people behaving badly.

He's also the lead author of Culture Audit in Financial Services.

And this conversation came about, because of an interaction I had with Roger about performative risk management – that is, stuff that happens only for show, not because it's actually helpful. And we talk about that, and it turns out that there is a long history of it.

However, there is so much more in this wonderful episode, which covers everything from 

authoritarianism, unethical contracts, abstracts, codes of practice, AI, cognitive diversity, and a lot more.

Show notes:

Roger’s website

Roger on LinkedIn

Conduct Risk Management: Using a Behavioral Approach to Protect Your Board and Financial Services

Culture Audit in Financial Services.

Mission Improbable by Lee Clarke

States of Denial by Stanley Cohen

Fundamental attribution error

Taskmaster

  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 205: Derek Leatherdale: On Demystifying Geopolitical Risk23 nov. 202301:04:50

Today, we talk geopolitical risk, an area that, if recent surveys are to be believed, keeps CEOs up at night more than anything else. My guest is Derek Leatherdale. Derek is the founder and managing director of GRI Strategies, which helps companies thrive in a volatile world. He does that by helping them think through and respond to geopolitical risk.

Prior to that, Derek set up and ran the Geopolitical Risk Function at HSBC, helping integrate expert geopolitical risk insight into the way in which the bank manages risk. And prior to that, Derek worked in national security and intelligence roles for the UK government. He works with boards and senior leaders on issues related to geopolitics.

This one is a great conversation, not just because we talk about a fascinating area of risk, but also because it provides insights into the complexities of decision-making at large organisations. And even if you don't work in a large corporate, I think you'll find this one very interesting. The world is indeed complex and uncertain and getting more so, and it's interesting to consider how to make sense of that complexity and to make practical decisions around it, and I think that Derek's insights help us do that.

Show notes:

GRI Strategies

Derek on LinkedIn

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Ep. 204: Sabrina Segal - On Tolerable Risk in the Humanitarian and International Development 'Third' Sectors08 nov. 202301:21:07

Today, I speak to Sabrina Segal about managing risk in the so -called “third sector”, which is the charity and non-profit sector.
Sabrina is an international development and humanitarian assistance professional.
She has worked on the ground during many humanitarian crises and international development roles in the likes of the Middle East and North Africa, Sub -Saharan Africa, and South Asia.

She is an attorney by training, but for the past few years has been involved in risk management and decision making in the third sector. And she hosts a podcast called Tolerable Risk, which provides insights on these topics.

And we get into all of that in this conversation. And I always find insights about risk and decision making from other contexts to be fascinating because there are always a number of transferable things.
The third sector deals with high stakes issues, use, complex relationships, and resource constraints.
You will hear that that context is incredibly important when it comes to managing risk.

You will also hear that ‘traditional risk management’ simply doesn't work in this context.
And we talk a lot about that. And what I find very impressive and inspirational about what Sabrina does is that she is setting out to change that, and you will certainly hear more about that too.

Show notes:

Sabrina on LinkedIn

Tolerable Risk

The Tolerable Risk Podcast

Grand Bargain Agreement

The Paris Declaration

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Decision Reactions Ep. 2 - Take the Money and Run01 nov. 202300:12:39

Our second in a thing called "Decision Reactions"

Show notes: NPR piece: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/29/104149... Original Al Jazeera piece: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOjV6...

Follow The Decision-Making Studio and get our copy of the FOCUS framework primer - www.thedecisionmaking.studio 

Ep. 203: Rupert Evill - On Bootstrapping Ethics, Making Risk Relevant, and the Dark Arts of Investigation24 oct. 202301:11:40

Today on the show, I am delighted to bring you my conversation with Rupert Evill. Rupert is the founder of Ethics Insight, a firm that helps organisations make risk relevant and implement risk, ethics and compliance programmes quickly. Rupert has 22 years of experience managing risks and crises in a variety of different environments and worked on roles focused on investigations, political risk, compliance, crisis response, and counterintelligence and counter-terrorism. He has worked in over 50 countries, including in Asia for over 12 years. He has recently written a book entitled Bootstrapping Ethics to help limited resources navigate risk and ethical challenges.

Rupert is a bit of a kindred spirit in that like me, he as an aversion to “performative” risk management, ethics, and compliance activities. Many of these things are dogma and don’t work in the types of complex environments in which Rupert’s investigative expertise is incredibly helpful. We talk about all these things and more, including:

  • Why ‘zero tolerance’ stances on ethical issues backfire;
  • How bribery and corruption actually work in challenging environments – including some interesting anecdotes;
  • The ‘dark arts’ investigations;
  • Much more!

Show notes:

Ethics Insight

Rupert on LinkedIn

Bootstrapping Ethics

Erin Myer’s The Culture Map

Rapport by Emily and Laurence Alison

_ _ _ _ _ _

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Decision Reactions - Ep. 1: An Unfair Game19 oct. 202300:14:34

This is the first in a potential series from The Decision-Making Studio called "Decision Reactions" in which we look at quality decision-making practice. In this episode, we tee up our FOCUS decision-making framework and apply it to a great scene from the film Moneyball, starring Brad Pitt.

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Ep. 202: Bryce Hoffman - On Red Team Thinking10 oct. 202301:22:03

In this episode of the All Things Risk podcast, we have the pleasure of speaking with Bryce Hoffman, the founding partner and president of Red Team Thinking. Bryce is our first guest since launching the Decision-Making Studio (and we will be producing episodes more frequently) and I cannot think of a more appropriate guest.
Bryce Hoffman is best-selling author and an expert in the field of ‘red teaming,’ a practice that challenges strategies and enhances decision-making through the incorporation of contrarian perspectives. He brings a unique perspective to his work, having been the first civilian graduate of the US Army's Red Team University.
We begin our conversation by discussing leadership (and why Bryce views Elon Musk and Jack Welch as poor examples of leadership). Bryce then explains what red teaming is – it involves stress testing strategies, uncovering blind spots, and examining assumptions to improve decision-making. It's a method used by both military and corporate organizations to identify vulnerabilities and produce robust plans.
As we delve deeper, Bryce shares how red teaming can be particularly valuable in leadership roles. By embracing diverse perspectives and fostering a culture of open dialogue, leaders can prevent groupthink and make better-informed decisions. He stresses the importance of challenging assumptions and valuing dissenting opinions, ultimately creating stronger organizations and resilient teams.
Throughout our discussion, Bryce provides lots of practical examples and actionable advice for implementing red team thinking in different contexts. We touch on the power of scenario planning, the benefits of actively seeking out devil's advocates, and the necessity of constantly reassessing strategies.
We wrap up our conversation by exploring the future of decision-making and the role that red teaming will play in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. Bryce's insights leave us with a renewed appreciation for the value of critical thinking and the power of embracing opposing perspectives.
Show notes:

Red Team Thinking

Book: Red Teaming: Transform Your Business By Thinking Like the Enemy

Bryce on LinkedIn

Bryce’s Book American Icon: Alan Mulally and the Fight to Save Ford Motor Company

Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline

Shakespeare in the Bush by Laura Bohannan

Daniel Kahneman

Gary Klein

The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dörner

Blink by Malcolm Gladwell

Premortem

Four Ways of Seeing

Operation Blacklist

Annie Duke

Phil Tetlock

Think-Write-Share

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 201: Chris Hess - On Expertise, Battle Scars, Business, and More21 sept. 202300:51:13

This episode’s guest is Chris Hess. Chris happens to be a friend of mine from way back in my high school days. He, like me, has created an international career. And he is also based in the UK. I invited him to be a guest on the show because his professional experience and expertise is very interesting, and right up the street of this show's themes. Chris is a partner with Hesmur, a boutique consultancy focused on the insurance and wealth management sectors. He helps clients to address changing marketplaces, to digitize their businesses, and to build resilience.

Prior to this, Chris has been an entrepreneur and a senior executive. This has included stints doing business in both Russia and China, and obviously we talk about that. We also talk about taking risk, about decision-making, about startups. We talk about last year's UK mini-budget crisis, as Chris worked with many pension funds and had a unique view of the event. And if you aren't based in the UK, this was the crisis that almost took down the British economy and ended up taking down, the government of Liz Truss. We also talk about planning, the use of experts, and a lot more.

Show notes:

Hesmur

Chris on LinkedIn

The UK’s mini budget crisis

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Ep. 200: Gareth Lock - Decision-Making and Human Factors in Deep Sea Diving27 août 202301:07:31

In this episode, we look at decision-making in the world of deep sea diving, a topic that provides us with so many transferable lessons to other domains. It is also a very fun conversation. My guest is Gareth Lock. Gareth is the founder of The Human Diver, an organisation that improves the effectiveness of diving skills through specific human factors training.

Gareth has had a long career as a diver, starting out his career in the Royal Air Force where he spent 25 years. Over the years he realised that one thing the military does very well is teamwork – which, of course makes sense because poor decisions, bad behaviour and a lack of situational awareness can cost lives. Gareth found that the world of diving focused heavily on technical expertise – obviously important – but emphasised human behaviours and decision-making less than it should. As a result, he brings these approaches to the diving profession. Gareth has led many complex dives all over the world. He has also taken a huge amount of amazing underwater photos which you can see on his website.

This conversation is filled with wonderful insights about decision-making, working in teams, planning, the importance of constructive dissent, psychological safety, a just culture, making change happen, systems thinking and much more.

Show notes:

The Human Diver, Gareth’s website

Gareth’s book Under Pressure – Diving Deeper with Human Factors

Gareth’s documentary ‘If Only’

Steve Shorrock on Human Factors

Local rationality

Blog post: “Near misses: Were you lucky or good?”

Authority gradients

Creeping determinism

The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande

Join the Club by Tina Rosenberg

Piper Alpha

Kotter’s 8 step model for leading change

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Inbetweenisode 19 - When Do you Cross the Rubicon? A Useful Technique for Framing Decisions04 août 202300:09:33

The Inbetweenisode makes a return! This one is based on this article - https://medium.com/@bcattaneo/when-do-you-cross-the-rubicon-a-useful-technique-to-frame-decisions-e4fcdf6e9da3 

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Ep. 199: Grant Purdy - On Deciding and Why We Need to Drop 'Risk Management'19 juil. 202301:28:45

In this episode, I have the honour of welcoming Grant Purdy to the show. Grant, for those of you who may not have heard of him, has a 40+ year career in helping decision-makers make great decisions. This has involved enabling great conversations, and providing sufficient certainty to decision-makers in the achievement of their intended outcomes.

Grant is also considered one of the ‘founders’ of the thing commonly referred to as ‘risk management’, having co-wrote the world’s first risk management standard in the 1990s and later, ISO 31000, the best-known risk management standard. As you will hear however, the practice of traditional risk management has turned into something that has nothing to do with decision-making. It has become, according to Grant, a ‘millstone’ around the necks of organisations and something akin to a religious belief system together with sacred artefacts and evangelists. It’s something we need to drop, he says. If you work professionally in risk management, I urge you to listen and reflect on this.

If you don’t work in traditional risk management, you are still a decision-maker. Therefore, you are the person for whom Grant and his co-author, the late Roger Estall wrote Deciding – A Guide to Even Better Decision-Making. Grant provides us with a number of insights from the book.

Sadly, Roger passed away the day before we recorded this episode. Grant opens with a lovely tribute to Roger who perhaps saved more lives than any other New Zealander through his work. Deepest condolences go out to Rogers’s family, friends, and everyone who knew and worked with him.

Show notes:

Sufficient Certainty

Deciding – A Guide to Even Better Decision-Making

Vale Roger Estall

The risk management ‘millstone’

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 198: Roger Spitz - How to Thrive on Disruption10 juil. 202301:29:55

Today, we talk about thriving on disruption. My guest is Roger Spitz. Roger is the President of Techisential, an organisation focused on climate and foresight strategy which works with the leadership teams of some of the world’s most prominent organisations. He is also the Chair of the Disruptive Futures Institute, and education platform that teaches us how we can thrive on disruption. He spent two decades working in the world of venture capital and investment banking, advising founders and CEOs.

For the purposes of this conversation, Roger is the co-author of Thriving on Disruption – Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty. The guide is premised on the fact that disruption is a constant in our lives, and is expanding fast. It is comprehensive and very practical, with tools and techniques aimed at helping readers be more resilient and seize opportunities. It involves ‘casting aside assumptions, throwing out old playbooks, rewiring our mindset, embracing the unknown and taking agency of our own futures.’ This is a nutrient-dense conversation that covers everything from Zen Buddhism to AI.

Show notes:

Roger Spitz

Lidia Zuin

The Disruptive Futures Institute

Thriving on Disruption – Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty

Techisential

Amara’s Law

Systems Thinking

Dave Snowden and sensemaking

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence

Ep. 197: Christian Hunt - On Humanising Rules23 juin 202301:50:11

Today, we have a fabulous conversation with Christian Hunt who is making his third appearance on the show. This time he joins me to talk about his excellent new book Humanising Rules – Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics and Compliance. The book is all about using practical techniques ‘that work with – rather than against – the grain of natural human decision-making’ in designing and implementing rules. In the book and in this episode, Christian challenges widely-held assumptions about managing the risks posed by people and their relationship with rules. As Christian so often aptly puts it rule-makers need to not just think about how ‘ they’d like people to behave, but how likely people are to behave.’

If you’ve not come across Christian before, he is the founder of Human Risk, a consultancy that brings behavioural science to ethics and compliance. He is also the host and producer of his own show, The Human Risk Podcast. He is always engaging and challenges our thinking. After listening to this, no matter if you are a rule-maker, rule-taker or rule-breaker (and at times, we are all of those things), you won’t ever think about rules in quite the same way again.

Show notes:

Human Risk

Humanising Rules

The Human Risk Podcast

PWC Oscars blunder

Sander Van Der Linden on All Things Risk

_ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 196: Jen Clinehens - On Choice Hacking31 mai 202301:11:56

Today, we spend some time in the world of marketing talking about how people make choices – and how behavioural science and AI can help us make better choices. My guest is Jen Clinehens. Jen is all about making business more human and is the founder of Choice Hacking, a consultancy that approaches customer experiences with a combination of behavioural science and psychology as well as cutting-edge AI tools.

Jen has a very interesting background and worldview – she spent time as a musician and in the creative industries before working in business and later founding Choice Hacking. We spend time talking about that, about how consumers make choices and what we can learn from that, the differences between marketing and manipulation, AI, and much more.

Show notes:

Jen Clinehens

Choice Hacking

Nike’s Michael Jordan ‘Failure’ ad

Market rotation

Noom

Duolingo

_ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 195: Bent Flyvbjerg - On How Big Things Get Done15 mai 202301:28:19

Today, we talk about how big things get done. A ‘big thing’ can mean a large infrastructure project, an IT project at work, or something in your personal life like a home renovation, a big adventure, or an event you’re organising. The sad truth is, the vast majority – in fact, almost – big projects end up over budget, delayed, and they don’t provide the planned benefits. This is something well-researched and backed up by data. It is the ‘Iron Law of Mega Projects’ as you will hear.

That’s the bad news.

The good news is that joining us on this episode of the podcast is Professor Bent Flyvbjerg who is the world’s leading megaproject expert. Prof. Flyvbjerg teaches at the University of Oxford and the IT University of Copenhagen. He has consulted on over 100 megaprojects costing $1 billion or more and has been knighted by the Queen of Denmark. He is the co-author of the fantastic new book How Big Things Get Done – The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project From Home Renovations to Space Exploration.

Bent joins in what I think is a fabulous conversation in which he shares:

·      The Iron Law of Mega Projects;

·      Why projects ‘don’t go wrong, they start wrong’;

·      Why projects are not goals in and of themselves and what we can learn from legendary architect Frank Gehry;

·      What the Tour de France teaches up about risk;

·      What lego has to do with all this;

·      Much more!

   Show notes:

Prof Bent Flyvbjerg

How Big Things Get Done

Bent on LinkedIn

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Availability bias

Frank Gehry

Pixar

The Bilbao Guggenheim

The Sydney Opera House

Reference Class Forecasting

Robert Caro on LBJ and Robert Moses

The Black Swan

Madrid Metro

SSRN

Academia.edu

_ _ _ _ _ _

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_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence

Ep. 194: Carlo Gallo - On Russia-Ukraine and What We Can Learn From Geopolitical Risk Analysis18 avr. 202301:39:16

In this episode,  we dive into the world of geopolitical risk analysis – and in so doing, we also look at Russia and its conflict with Ukraine. On top of this, in looking at geopolitical risk, we are also be default considering decision-making under circumstances of extreme uncertainty and ambiguity. So, this is a conversation that offers numerous useful lessons applicable to all types of decisions.

My guest is Dr. Carlo Gallo. Carlo is the founder and director of Enquirisk, a geopolitical risk consultancy that provides analysis on geopolitics using a number of rigorous methods to help clients make better investment decisions. Carlo is an expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union. He has a doctorate in Russian politics from the London School of Economics and applies his expertise in helping clients address political, integrity and security risks.

This is a fabulous conversation that covers both the methodology behind great political risk analysis and how this relates to decision-making as well as the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Carlo shares insights on Russian society, why the Russian population, for the most part, is supportive of Vladimir Putin, and some considerations for the conflict with Ukraine may end.

Show notes:

Enquirisk

Carlo on LinkedIn

Enquirisk on Twitter

Victor Zaslavsky

Structured Analytic Techniques

Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock

Levada Centre

“Four Russias”

_ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 193: Paul McVeigh - What Elite Footballers Can Teach Us About High Performance19 mars 202301:00:58

Today, I am delighted to bring you my conversation with former Premier League footballer and now performance psychologist Paul McVeigh. Paul played professionally for the likes of Norwich City and Tottenham Hotspur and internationally for Northern Ireland. He competed with some of the sport’s best players and has taken this experience and developed his own methodology to performance psychology which he applies in his work with leaders and teams. He is also an author, having written The Stupid Footballer is Dead which discusses how football at an elite level is played every bit as much with the mind as it is on the pitch.

You certainly don’t need to be interested in football to get a lot out of this episode, but if you are, you will find it even more fascinating. Paul shares more about all this in this episode, including:

  • ·      The day he began his professional career at Tottenham which also happened to coincide with the first day of World Cup-winning colleague Jurgen Klinsmann;
  • ·      How he started to apply psychology as a professional footballer at a time when sports psychology wasn’t something very common;
  • ·      What he learned from being on the same pitch as Cristiano Ronaldo;
  • ·      What former Chelsea great Gianfranco Zola told him about Diego Maradona;
  • ·      The decision to retire as a footballer to do what he does now;
  • ·      The differences and similarities between elite footballers and high-performance leaders
  • ·      Much more

Show notes:

Paul’s website

Paul’s book The Stupid Footballer is Dead

George Best

Keith Gillespie

Manchester United’s Class of 92

Tony Robbins

The Thought Cycle and Cognitive Behavioural Therapy

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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Ep. 192: Sander Van Der Linden - Why Misinformation is a Virus, and How to Build Immunity15 mars 202301:23:40

This episode is all about misinformation, which seems like it is everywhere – it’s almost like a virus. In fact, as you will hear in this fascinating conversation, that’s exactly how misinformation behaves. My guest is Dr. Sander Van Der Linden who is a Professor of Social Psychology in Society and Director of the Social Decision-Making Lab at the University of Cambridge. He has been described as Cambridge’s professor of ‘defence against the dark arts’.

Sander is the author of the fantastic new book Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity. I don’t think that after you listen to him that you will look at misinformation and social media in the same way again. This conversation is also a great reminder that we are all susceptible to misinformation.

We spend time covering Sander’s background and the origins of the book, why our brains are susceptible to misinformation – which necessarily covers conspiracy theories, how misinformation spreads and the role of social media in that, and finally, how to create a vaccine against it. Sander also shares his experiences working with big tech on this problem.

Show notes:

Sander Van Der Linden

Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity

Sander on Twitter

Robert Cialdini

Dan Ariely

Memetics

Illusory truth effect

The MMR vaccine and autism

The truth sandwich

Conjunction fallacy

David Stillwell on Cambridge Analytica

Aleksandr Kogan

The Nicola Bulley case

Sandy Hook shooting

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Like what you heard?

Subscribe and/or leave a rating and review on Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/1PjLmK

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Ep. 191: Sarah Waylett - On Burnout and Breaking the Stress Cycle24 févr. 202301:19:20

Today, we discuss some risks to ourselves – more specifically, stress and burnout. My guest is Sarah Waylett. Sarah is a self-described recovering perfectionist and over-achiever. She spent many years in the world of high-performance management consulting. This eventually took a toll on her both physically and mentally. Ultimately, she decided to understand her perfectionist tendencies.

This led her to found her own consultancy called Dreamgarten because she saw in others the same tendencies and the same results – overwork and burnout. She developed her own method to deal with burnout using human-centred design thinking, the same techniques she used to facilitate business problem-solving. She found that this approach worked.

We get into that and a lot of other great stuff here that is highly relevant to clear thinking and decision-making. If you lead teams or want to better understand, prevent and/or recover from burnout there is a lot of great stuff in this conversation. Sarah explains her definition of burnout, its impacts on the body and on decision-making, the importance of mindfulness practices, the stress cycle, and ways to prevent and combat burnout.

Show notes:

Sarah Waylett

Dreamgarten

Sarah on LinkedIn

Sarah on stress and stressors

Burnout – The Secret to Unlocking the Stress Cycle by Emily and Amelia Nagoski

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Ep. 190: Sarah Davis - Paddling the Nile, Part 2 of 228 janv. 202301:04:14

This is Part 2 of 2 of our conversation with Sarah Davis, the first woman to have paddled the Nile from its source in Rwanda to the sea off the coast of Egypt, a 6,500+ km journey that took six months.

If you have not done so, we encourage you to listen to Part 1 first, which you can find here or wherever you get your podcasts.

In Part 2, Sarah covers the second half of her journey which includes traveling through Sudan and Egypt. She also shares a number of wonderful lessons that are applicable to any ambitious endeavour.

Show notes:

Paddle the Nile

Sarah’s website

Sarah on LinkedIn

Danielle Laporte – what will you do to feel the way you want to feel?

Annie Duke on decision-making

Viktor Frankl

Sir Ranulph Fiennes - Explorer

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Ep. 189: Sarah Davis - Paddling the Nile, Part 1 of 227 janv. 202301:10:28

We have a fabulous conversation here in two parts – this is Part One. Our guest is Sarah Davis, the first woman to have paddled the Nile from its source in Rwanda to the sea off the coast of Egypt, a 6,500+ km journey that took six months. During this time, Sarah dealt with angry hippos, the threat of kidnap, white water rapids, and parasites, and she and her team even got arrested at one point.

Who is Sarah? She is a British-born Australian with a love of travel, sport, and adventure. You might think that – in order to pull of this Nile expedition – Sarah started adventuring from a very young age. That isn’t exactly true and this is one of the reasons why this adventure is so interesting. Sarah spent most of her adult life in risk and project management in the banking sector. She decided that she wanted more fulfillment and purpose in her life which is partly how the Nile expedition came about.

In so doing, she shares a number of valuable lessons that you will hear about – from the importance of purpose to planning, crisis management, to decision-making. This is an absolutely wonderful conversation. Part One covers the origins of the expedition, planning and the first half of the journey. Part Two covers the second half and a number of lessons Sarah shares.

Show notes:

Paddle the Nile

Sarah’s website

Sarah on LinkedIn

Danielle Laporte – what will you do to feel the way you want to feel?

Annie Duke on decision-making

Viktor Frankl

Sir Ranulph Fiennes - Explorer

Like what you heard?

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Subscribe on Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/ben-cattaneo

Follow the podcast on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RiskThings

Drop us a note: allthingsrisk@gmail.com 

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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence

Ep. 188: Michele Wucker: You Are What You Risk10 janv. 202301:17:37

Today’s conversation is with someone you may have come across via a term she coined. That term is ‘gray rhino’ and that person is Michele Wucker. Michele is a strategic advisor and a best-selling author. The term ‘gray rhino’ is one she came up with to take a fresh look at how we respond to the obvious, probable and most impactful risks we face. Her book, THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore became a bestseller.

Michele has written a sequel entitled YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World. This is a book whose theme is right at the heart of many of the things we love to talk about on this show. It’s about how we as individuals can better navigate uncertainty by better understanding how our experiences and perceptions shape the way we view it. We get into that in the conversation, including terms such as ‘risk empathy’ and ‘risk fingerprint’, and so much more.

Show notes:

Michele’s company, Gray Rhino and Company

THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore

YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World.

Michele on LinkedIn

Ipos’ Perils of Perception studies

Lloyd’s Register World risk poll

The Risk Type Compass

Mark Pollock and Simone George’s TED talk – “A love letter to realism in a time of grief”

Termination Shock by Neil Stephenson

Like what you heard?

Subscribe and/or leave a rating and review on Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/1PjLmK

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Subscribe on Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/ben-cattaneo

Follow the podcast on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RiskThings

Drop us a note: allthingsrisk@gmail.com 

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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence

Ep. 187: Annie Duke - On "Quit," The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away30 déc. 202201:18:01

This episode is about something with which our society has a very unhealthy relationship: quitting. The advice of the legendarily successful is often boiled down to this: stick to things, don’t quit. But that advice is very wrong. Annie Duke makes her third appearance on the podcast to tell us that quitting is far from a vice. Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. That’s how they win.

If you are unfamiliar with Annie, she is a best-selling author, decision scientist, and a former professional poker champion. Her latest book is called Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. In it, she draws on a wealth of findings in behavioural science, real-life examples, and thoughtful analysis to make the case for quitting. She joins to talk about that, why quitting is such an important skill, and how to get better at it.

Show notes:

Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

Annie’s website

How to Decide

Thinking in Bets

Michael Mauboussin

Daniel Kahneman

Amos Tversky

Richard Thaler

Pete Carroll

Expected Value

Loss Aversion

Status Quo bias

Survivorship bias

Escalation of commitment

John List’s piece on quitting

Ep 157 of All Things Risk with Annie

Ep 90 of All Things Risk with Annie

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Ep. 186: Alison Taylor - On the Myths, Misconceptions and Problems With ESG23 déc. 202200:59:14

I am delighted to welcome Alison Taylor back to the show. Alison works on challenges at the intersection of corporate integrity, risk, and responsibility. She is the Executive Director at Ethical Systems, a collaboration between leading academics working on behavioural science, organisational psychology, and systems thinking. She is also an adjunct professor at the NYU Stern School of Business. She has advised companies for many years on integrity, anti-corruption, sustainability, and political risk.

On top of that, and for the purposes of this conversation Alison is one of LinkedIn’s Top Voices for 2022. And this is where we get into the topic of focus for this episode. Alison is one of the world’s top voices when discussing the myths and misconceptions of ESG. ESG stands for Environment, Social and Governance. It is ostensibly about how investors reward or punish companies for their performance in these areas (and in so doing help make the world a better place).

However, as you will hear from Alison, it really isn’t that. And, the fact that it really isn’t is a problem for companies, stakeholders, and indeed, the planet. Alison explains what ESG is, better ways to address some of these challenges, transparency and its limits, and much more.

Show notes:

Alison on LinkedIn

Ethical Systems

Alison on Twitter

Jonathan Haidt

Alison on ESG

Larry Fink’s 2022 letter to CEOs

Alison on Patagonia

Stuart Kirk’s infamous ESG presentation

That Milton Friedman piece on the social responsibility of business

The Balkanisation of the internet

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Drop us a note: allthingsrisk@gmail.com 

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Ep. 185: Mark Harris - On What Kidnaps and Other Acute Crises Can Teach Us29 nov. 202201:23:35

Today’s conversation is all about things going badly wrong. We cover this by talking about situations that feature in the plots of action movies. My guest is Mark Harris. Mark is a crisis management and crisis communications expert with decades of experience working at the forefront of these areas. Mark has worked on over 150 incidents of kidnapping, extortion, and hostage-taking around the world. He has also dealt with 19 cases of vessel hijacking, the majority of which were undertaken by Somali pirates. Prior to that, mark served for 14 years in the British Army. And as you will hear, saw service in Germany at the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall, in Cyprus as part of the UN Peacekeeping contingent, and as a Military Observer in Cambodia when he and his team were taken hostage by the Khmer Rouge.

Mark knows of what he speaks and his experience helping organisations and individuals deal with these types of acute crises offers a number of lessons that are applicable to a range of contexts. We talk about all of that including the dynamics of kidnapping, crisis preparedness, management and communication, and much more.

Show notes:

Mark on LinkedIn

CrisisFit

Mark’s blog post “Agile Leadership in a VUCA World”

Proof of Life

The Weaponisation of Everything by Mark Galeotti

Sheena Thomson Consulting

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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence

Ep. 184: Daniel Armanios - The Future of Infrastructure03 nov. 202201:35:30

This episode is all about our ‘built environment’. In other words, infrastructure – our roads, bridges, water system, and digital infrastructure. After listening to this one, it’s more than likely that you will never think about this topic in the same way again.

Think about when our roads and bridges were built. Who was in the room (often decades ago) making the decisions? What did they know? How do these decisions impact us today? What does that mean for current infrastructure decisions? A lot. Infrastructure can be viewed as 'institutional relics".

Meet today’s guest, Daniel Armanios. Daniel is the BT Professor of Major Programme Management at the University of Oxford’s Säid Business School. His research and teaching integrates civil engineering with organisational sociology to better understand how organisations can coordinate to build, manage, and maintain infrastructure systems. Daniel is a super interesting guy – a Rhodes Scholar with a Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University, he is an interdisciplinary expert yet a practical thinker. He has amazing insights and this leads to a fascinating conversation.

 

We cover things like:

  • How infrastructure decisions that are ‘rational’ can sometimes create unequal outcomes;
  • Why it’s important for those designing and building infrastructure to think about who they might be excluded – and how to do that;
  • Infrastructure as an 'institutional relic';
  • Political turmoil;
  • Risk and uncertainty in infrastructure;
  • Risk-taking as an academic

Show notes:

Daniel Armanios

Daniel on LinkedIn

Daniel’s inaugural lecture at the University of Oxford

Daniel’s research on bridges
Flint Michigan water crisis

Jackson Mississippi water crisis

Cancer Alley

Grenfell Tower Fire

Pittsburgh Fern Hollow Bridge and its collapse

Social sensing

Traffic by Tom Vanderbilt

Gerd Gigerenzer on heuristics

Kathleen Eisenhardt on simple rules

Agile methodology

Boeing 737 max case

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Ep. 183: Nathan and Susannah Furr - On the Upside of Uncertainty10 oct. 202201:13:12

Nathan and Susannah Furr are the co-authors of a phenomenal book that is firmly in the wheelhouse of our show. It’s called The Upside of Uncertainty – A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown. It’s been described as a “science-backed guide for navigating and thriving through uncertainty,” and it’s a book that is well overdue given the circumstances in which we find ourselves.

I am reminded of that lovely Voltaire quote – “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position but certainty is an absurd one.” And it’s appropriate to quote a French philosopher as Nathan and Susannah are Americans based in France. Nathan is an associate professor of strategy at the world-renowned INSEAD in Paris. He teaches innovation and tech strategy and is a recognised expert in these fields having written several books on these topics. Susannah is a designer, art historian with a focus on the Dutch baroque period, and entrepreneur. She founded her own clothing line which was inspired by the intricate embroidery of Dutch women in the baroque.

This conversation is fabulous.

We not only get into the beauty of uncertainty, but Nathan and Susannah share a number of tools and techniques from their uncertainty ‘first aid cross’ that you will hear about. This is all about how to prime, do, reframe and sustain in the midst of uncertainty. These are all essential skills very few of us are formally taught.

Show notes:

Nathan and Susannah

The Upside of Uncertainty – A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown

Nathan and Susannah’s site

“The Peace of Wild Things” – poem by Wendell Berry

Transilience

World Uncertainty Index

The ‘uncertainty first aid cross’

John O’Donohue

Raymond Poulidor vs Jacques Anquetil on the Puy de Dôme

James Carse – Finite and Infinite Games

Carol Dweck and a growth mindset

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