Explore every episode of the podcast The Cusp with Paul Fain

Economist Guy Berger talks with Paul Fain about what AI is (and isn't yet) doing to the labor market, and how the U.S. should prepare for what comes next. Berger is a labor market economist who serves as workforce economist in residence at Guild. He previously was principal economist at LinkedIn. He makes the case that AI is likely to transform most jobs gradually rather than cause mass unemployment, and that the biggest gaps right now are in labor market data and in the ability of workforce systems to respond to disruption, whatever the cause. Chapters 00:00 The "Great Stay": Low levels of layoffs and hiring, and a modest 2026 recovery that hasn't reached job seekers. 02:28 Is AI hitting entry-level jobs? 04:48 Other suspects: Hiring caution amid uncertainty and some second-order AI effect on hiring of four-year graduates. 06:04 Jensen Huang vs. Bill Gates: Why 3-5 years is too short for massive disruption, and why the 10-to-50-year horizon is the one to plan for. 08:59 Not like the China shock: Organizations as the bottleneck on adoption, the unsettling part of not knowing where displaced workers will go, and pricing skills as two-to-five-year bets. 13:57 Clerical work and the first rung: Back-office automation predates LLMs. Waymos everywhere, and a coming robotics wave for hands-on jobs. 17:44 Building an early warning system: The Census Bureau's business survey on AI use, and why displacement means the job is gone, not just the worker. 21:43 The iceberg: Change within jobs is the big hidden mass, job switching sits above the waterline, and mass unemployment is the small tip. 24:11 Can layoffs be pinned on AI? "AI washing," mixed motives, and the case for cause-agnostic solutions. 26:52 Who's tracking skills and tasks? Private data as a complement, not a substitute. More frequent federal surveys, O*NET, BLS's first AI-exposure projections, and why statistical agencies are an easy target for cuts. 32:31 Can job training work? The Midwest's painful adjustment after deindustrialization, "learn to code" nostalgia, and the resilience of the four-year degree. 37:36 What employers spend on training: A long decline with almost no data, internal mobility declines, and the case for company consortiums. 41:26 Beyond training: A beefed-up unemployment insurance system 45:13 Safety nets on autopilot: Benefits that expand automatically when needed, lessons from the COVID wind-down, and whether AI companies should pay. 47:04 Human reserve jobs? Bill Gates's idea, coal country, Americans moving less than ever, and regions dependent on back-office work. 51:05 Advice for workforce pros: Avoid brittleness, favor low-cost bets that pay off in a few years, community colleges as hubs, and a more "quilt-shaped" postsecondary system. Mentioned in this episodeGuildStanford dataCensus Business Trends and Outlook SurveyAchieving the Dream About The Cusp This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work. Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletterAll episodesWork Shift on LinkedIn

Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement. Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal. Chapters 00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared. 01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken. 03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it. 06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy. 09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example. 14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs. 16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI. 19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be. 27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution. 32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed. 35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income. 37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open. 41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea. 45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers. 48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable. 51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats. Mentioned in this episode Windfall Trust: Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement. Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal. Chapters 00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared. 01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken. 03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it. 06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy. 09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example. 14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs. 16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI. 19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be. 27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution. 32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed. 35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income. 37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open. 41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea. 45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers. 48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable. 51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats. Mentioned in this episode Windfall Trust: https://windfalltrust.org/ Policy atlas: https://windfalltrust.org/policy-atlas Scenario exercises: https://windfalltrust.org/scenarios Survey results: https://windfalltrust.org/global-dialogues-survey Stanford data: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/canaries-in-the-coal-mine Apollo on wages: https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/ai-lowers-wages-but-doesnt-cut-jobs Mei Fong’s book: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/one-child-policy-ends-new-book-examines-chinas-most-radical-n462401 Gina Raimondo interview: https://thecontextwindowpodcast.substack.com/p/gina-raimondo-on-what-companies-owe NPR on The AI Doc: https://www.wwno.org/npr-news/2026-04-21/ai-doc-explores-promises-and-risks-of-rapidly-developing-artificial-intelligenc American Compass: https://americancompass.org/worker-power-in-the-age-of-ai/ About The Cusp This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work. Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletter: https://workshift.org/the-job/ All episodes: https://workshift.org/the-cusp/ Work Shift on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/workshiftnews

Brooke DeRenzis from the National Skills Coalition talks with Paul Fain about how to build a workforce agenda for the AI economy. The National Skills Coalition is a nonprofit organization that advocates for inclusive, high-quality skills training. DeRenzis is the group’s DC-based CEO. She shares how the US can leverage bipartisan concern about AI’s impacts to improve on decades of unfinished workforce policy. Chapters 00:00 How ready is the US?: The main workforce law is a generation old and its real funding has shrunk. The safety net is built for normal ups and downs, not structural change. 02:15 We spend far less than our peers: The US is at the bottom of the OECD chart on workforce spending. 03:15 What Americans are saying: Nobody has a crystal ball. People want to know what AI means for their own job, family and community. 06:05 From "second chance" to "first choice": Treating workforce spending as a core investment, and why the lack of partisan lines on AI is an opening. 11:45 "Job training doesn't work"?: What workers actually want: economic stability, and control over their own careers. 14:55 "Economic infrastructure": People shouldn't have to choose between putting food on the table and getting training. 17:20 Where basic income and reskilling overlap: New Mexico's guaranteed income for student parents, and pandemic emergency aid at community colleges. 20:00 The pilot problem: Low spending produces modest results, which justifies low spending. Per Scholas, and $2K training vouchers versus a $10K program. 25:05 Scaling up: Community colleges, union-management training partnerships, and employers who want in from the start. 29:40 Corporate money: Lowe's and others investing in the skilled trades, and the building of AI infrastructure itself driving demand for workers. 33:05 States or Washington? Why not to wait, and the broken promises of past economic transitions. 37:45 Pennsylvania: Deindustrialization, Gov. Shapiro's shift on data centers, and where people can look for hope. 41:40 Community anchors: Community colleges and community groups as the places people go when they're worried about work. 44:45 A New Promise of Work: About 500 conversations nationwide, policy proposals coming at the National Skills Coalition’s March 2027 Skills Summit, and who needs to champion them. Mentioned in this episode National Skills Coalition, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/ New Promise of Work, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/campaigns/a-new-promise-of-work/ Skills Summit, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/event/skills-summit OECD spending, https://www.oecd.org/en/blogs/2025/11/active-labour-market-policies-in-oecd-countries-why-renewed-investment-matters.html The $2K voucher, https://pw.hks.harvard.edu/post/publicjobtraining Per Scholas evidence, https://mdrc.org/work/publications/long-term-effects-sectoral-advancement-strategy/file-executive Corporate spending, https://corporate.lowes.com/newsroom/press-releases/lowes-foundation-plans-expanded-250-million-investment-help-train-and-develop-250000-tradespeople-over-next-decade-increasing-skilled-trades-workforce About The Cusp This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work. Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletter: https://workshift.org/the-job/ All episodes: https://workshift.org/the-cusp/ Work Shift on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/workshiftnews

A new season of Work Shift’s podcast returns this week, tackling some of today’s most defining questions, including: How do we prepare for AI-driven job displacement? Hosted by Paul Fain, the new season will bring in experts and leaders in the industry to dig into worker retraining as part of the solution, what the latest data tells us about how AI is reshaping the labor market, and more. Subscribe to The Cusp for more conversations about AI, work, education, and more.

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Tal Goldhamer, a former partner and chief learning officer at Ernst & Young. Goldhamer has an interesting take on how to think about AI, and has had a ringside seat on the technology's adoption in the workforce. Since leaving EY last year, Goldhamer has been advising businesses and colleges on how to get the most out of AI. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Greg Hart, the president and CEO of Coursera, which is one of the world's largest online learning platforms. Hart previously was the longtime technical advisor to Jeff Bezos, among other high-level roles at Amazon. He talks about Coursera's global perspective on the demand for AI-related skills, and how the technology is reshaping jobs.Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

Welcome to Season 2 of The Cusp. In this episode, host Paul Fain talks with Rachel Lipson, a senior policy advisor at the U.S. Department of Commerce and the co-founder of Harvard's Project on Workforce. Rachel describes the ambition of the department's strategy on regional competitiveness, which combines workforce development with economic development while seeking to forge lasting partnerships between employers and community colleges. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

Host Paul Fain introduces a quick run through of soundbites from the 15 guests who helped power the inaugural season of The Cusp brought to you by Work Shift. Special thanks to all of our guests, listeners, and supporters for a fantastic first season in 2024. Be on the lookout for more from us as Season 2 kicks off in 2025.

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Ron Smith, vice president of philanthropy at Salesforce. Smith, who has overseen more than $225M in giving, talks about how to be thoughtful about AI's rapid integration into education, to ensure that students aren't left behind. Ellie Bertani, president and CEO of the GitLab Foundation, also joins Fain for this episode. Bertani describes the foundation's data-based philosophy on AI and economic mobility. She also shares an optimistic vision for the future, with concrete suggestions about how to get there. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

Aneesh Raman is LinkedIn's chief economic opportunity officer. He's a former war correspondent for CNN and speechwriter for President Obama, among other star turns. In this episode, Paul Fain talks with Aneesh about his humanistic take on the potential for artificial intelligence to usher in a more meritocratic job market and society. Aneesh takes a sweeping historical look at the coming technological disruption, with plenty of specifics, including data from LinkedIn. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free reporting on connections between education and work.

Julia Lane is a renowned expert on public data. An economist, NYU professor, and regular advisor to the federal government, Julia recently advised the Commerce Department on President Biden's executive order on AI. In this episode, Paul Fain talks with Julia about her intriguing call for a new national center on data that would measure AI's impacts on jobs—a center that exists outside of government and would be stood up by philanthropy. Julia shares her thoughts about what we don't know about AI, and how her idea for a national center could answer big questions about how the technology is playing out in the labor market. Subscribe to The Cusp where you get our podcasts. And checkout Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

In this episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain shares highlights from the midpoint of the show's first season. Among the experts featured are George Siemens, who discusses the integration of AI in universities, and Ben Armstrong, who shares research on AI's incremental effects on jobs. Katy Knight emphasizes the importance of keeping humans in the loop when tapping AI solutions, while Lydia Logan encourages educators to embrace AI tools. The episode also touches on the challenges of AI accessibility and the need for AI literacy in education, with perspectives from Alex Swartzel, Edith Yang, and Alex Kotran. Throughout these interviews, experts shared the importance of adaptability, critical thinking, and human skills in an AI-driven future, offering valuable insights for educators, policymakers, and workers as they navigate this technological shift.

The Center for Artificial Intelligence & the Future of Work from JFFLabs seeks to shape AI's impact on skills development, job quality, and equitable outcomes. In this episode, Paul Fain speaks with Alex Swartsel and Tiffany Hsieh, who help lead the center's work. They talked about AI-specific credentialing, how community colleges can best meet this moment, and much more. Lydia Logan also joined Fain for this episode. Logan is vice president of global education and workforce development for IBM, a vantage point that gives her rare insights on AI and the workforce. She discussed the value of durable skills in the age of AI, and the role for IBM and other big tech companies in AI skills training. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

The AI Education Project seeks to help both educators and students with foundational AI literacy. Alex Kotran, the nonprofit's founder and CEO, talks with Paul Fainin the latest episode of The Cusp. Kotran says not knowing how AI will change job roles keeps him up at night. But he says we have more certainty about what the skills of the future will be. Leigh Ann DeLyser follows Kotran in the episode. The co-founder and executive director of Computer Science for All, DeLyser talks about resources educators can tap to develop an equitable AI strategy, and to judge whether it's a success. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

MIT's Work of the Future initiative is researching how generative AI can contribute to higher-quality jobs. Ben Armstrong, an MIT research scientist and the initiative's co-lead, talks with Paul Fain in this must-listen episode. Ben describes what he and his colleagues are finding, offering a highly informed reality check on AI and its impacts. Following Ben is an interview with Katy Knight, executive director and president of the Siegel Family Endowment. Katy shares her take on the research from MIT, with an eye toward helping educators and workforce development pros prepare for the ripple effects across society as the technology takes hold. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

Host Paul Fain explains what to expect on The Cusp and why you should listen.

George Siemens is a trusted, veteran thinker about technology’s impact on learning. A professor of psychology who has taught at several universities around the world, Siemens these days is helping to lead a project on artificial intelligence at Southern New Hampshire University. In this episode, Paul Fain talks with George about why he thinks AI will have a profound effect on teaching and learning. George frames this opportunity as a systems-change event, one college leaders must take on more proactively, including with strategies for workplace skills, social impacts, and more. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

Recorded live at SXSW EDU, this episode features three experts who are digging into AI’s impacts on education and work: Riddhima Mishra, research director at Learning Collider; Edith Yang, senior associate at MDRC; and Debbie Wasden, senior vice president at the Burning Glass Institute. Paul Fain talks with the three panelists about research questions they’re exploring, including how AI is reshaping jobs and what that means for educators. The conversation encompasses K-12, higher education, and the workforce, with a focus on how to ensure that lower-income learners aren’t left behind. Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.