The Coal Trader – Details, episodes & analysis

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Matt and Joe run a quick check on coal: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds help the setup.

Notes

• Thermal: Europe’s API2 off spring lows; Newcastle firmed (~$110s). In China, burns up, stockpiles down, prices rising toward ~$100/t with some production curtailments..

• Met: Recovered from ~$160/t with recent prints in the high-$180s to ~$197/t; could retest lows in Oct–Nov, but view is higher lows/highs into 2026-27 as quality supply tightens.

• Costs & floors: Inflation has lifted global cost curves; today’s “floors” look like yesterday’s peaks.

• U.S. power & gas: Data-center load + upcoming LNG capacity argue for firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.

• Equity color: Accumulate quality on weakness; favor buyback/clean-balance-sheet names; watch M&A overhangs for rerates.
  

Stocks mentioned (symbols): BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.

Subscribe at ⁠TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at ⁠thecoaltrader.substack.com.

Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder  

For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/ Disclaimer
For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Tickers Mentioned: $BTU, $ARLP, $AMR, $HCC, $METC, $GLEN.L

In this debut episode, Matt and Joe break down the fundamentals of the global coal market - starting with a deep dive into U.S. thermal coal basins and how they feed into domestic power demand and global exports.

We cover:

• Key differences between thermal and metallurgical coal and their market drivers

• U.S. coal basin economics: from Wyoming to Appalachia

• How coal prices translate to cash flow and margins for major U.S. producers

• Global price benchmarks: API2, Newcastle, Richards Bay

• What’s driving recent price trends in China, India, Europe, and U.S. utilities

• A primer on the steel cycle, metallurgical coal quality specs, and which companies stand to benefit

• Featured equities: Core Natural Resources, Peabody Energy, Alliance Resource Partners, Alpha Metallurgical, Warrior Met Coal, Ramaco, Glencore, and Whitehaven

Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.

Subscribe at ⁠TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at ⁠thecoaltrader.substack.com.

Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 

For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

In Episode 8 of the Coal Trader Podcast, Matt Warder and Joe Aldina break down a bifurcated coal market as met coal strength contrasts with sideways thermal pricing. The hosts dive into futures, physical pricing, equity performance, and a deep slate of listener questions covering U.S. vs. Australian coal, cycle timing, buybacks, and long-term investment strategy

Featured Equities Discussed - Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal Australia ($YAL.AX).

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

In Episode 7 Matt and Joe break down the surprise “two-handle” in premium met coal, the forward curve holding a bullish $220–250/t range, and the sharp rebound in coal equities driven more by factor flows than commodity moves. They also cover tightening U.S. gas markets, rising coal burn, and why Henry Hub in the $5–7 range could put U.S. thermal names back in the money, before touching on LNG oversupply, Asian demand, and a potential reset in Russian exports next year.

Featured equities discussed: Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco ($METC), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Yancoal ($YAL.AX), Stanmore ($SMR.AX).

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Thermal tightens, met holds firm near $200, and Goldman’s zero-value call on Ramaco’s rare earths sends coal equities sliding into tax-loss season. Matt and Joe dig into China’s demand bump, why high-quality met isn’t actually in surplus, and how the emerging 2026–27 U.S. natural-gas bull case could quietly lift domestic coal. They also break down the week’s equity moves and where the pullback may be creating real opportunities.

Featured equities discussed:

Alpha Metallurgical Resources ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Hallador Energy ($HNRG), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal ($YAL.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Stanmore Resources ($SMR.AX), Coronado Global ($CRN.AX)

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Matt and Joe sit down in person in to rip through a month’s worth of action: thermal coal’s rerate off sub-$90, a steadier met tape, Warrior’s standout quarter on Blue Creek volumes, why spreads inside the met stack are normalizing, and how to think about cycles, contracts, and capital returns. We wrap with a hefty listener Q&A on valuations, rare earth hype, PRB vs East basin setups, and whether coal’s longer cycles really give you an investing edge.

Featured equities discussed: Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco ($METC), Glencore ($GLEN.L), Whitehaven Coal ($WHX.AX)

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.

Thermal Coal

• Europe: API2 drifting in the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady near ~$100–110 during shoulder season.

• Asia: China/India imports firm; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal ~$40 → ~$43; China-destined 5,500 kcal ~$65 → ~$70.

Met Coal

• Pricing: Recovered off ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.

• Supply: BHP to close the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of additional Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.

Policy & Cost Curves

• New floors: Inflation + royalties push global cost curves up—levels that were prior peaks now look like today’s support.

U.S. Power & Gas

• Demand tailwinds: Data-center load and new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and improved coal dispatch versus recent summers.

Equities & Positioning

• Playbook: Watch M&A overhangs and prioritize buyback/clean-balance-sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.

Listener Q&A Highlights

• China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand toward India.
  

Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.

Thermal Coal

• Europe: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.
  

• Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.
  

Met Coal

• Pricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.
  

• Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.
  

Policy & Cost Curves

• Inflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.
  

U.S. Power & Gas

• Data-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.
  

Equities & Positioning

• Watch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.
  

Listener Q&A Highlights

• Coronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.
  

• China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.
  

Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.