Explore every episode of the podcast The Chuck ToddCast
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interview Only w/ Seth Bodnar - Can An Independent Win Montana’s Senate Seat? | 28 Oct 2026 | 01:02:04 | |
Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides 04:30 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders 08:45 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders? 12:15 What can actually be done on affordability 14:45 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch 19:45 Would either party talk him into caucusing? 24:30 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand 32:00 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule 34:45 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana 38:30 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking 45:30 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Trump’s Closing Message Couldn’t Be Worse + Can An Independent Win Montana’s Senate Seat? | 28 Oct 2026 | 02:43:58 | |
Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party. Then, Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS. Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel 08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency 12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted 20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate 24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening 28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates 33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio 40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex 48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson 50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets 1:08:15 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:09:45 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides 1:12:45 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders 1:17:00 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders? 1:20:30 What can actually be done on affordability 1:23:00 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch 1:28:00 Would either party talk him into caucusing? 1:32:45 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand 1:40:15 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule 1:43:00 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana 1:46:45 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking 1:53:45 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football 2:05:30 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ 2:06:00 Ask Chuck 2:06:15 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset? 2:08:15 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate? 2:12:45 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers? 2:15:00 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects 2:19:15 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens? 2:21:45 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP? 2:30:45 How did Tim Russert influence your career? 2:36:45 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Closing Message Couldn’t Be Worse + Trump’s Politics Receives International Rejection | 28 Oct 2026 | 01:44:36 | |
Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party. Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel 08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency 12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted 20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate 24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening 28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates 33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio 40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex 48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson 50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets 1:06:15 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ 1:06:45 Ask Chuck 1:07:00 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset? 1:09:00 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate? 1:13:30 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers? 1:15:45 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects 1:20:00 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens? 1:22:30 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP? 1:31:30 How did Tim Russert influence your career? 1:37:30 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| THE Ohio State: Woody Hayes, Michigan, and the Birth of a Dynasty (Part 1) | 27 Oct 2026 | 00:56:23 | |
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore how the Buckeyes became a college football powerhouse and the complicated legacy of legendary coach Woody Hayes. From the historic Michigan rivalry and the infamous Snow Bowl to Hayes' coaching philosophy, controversial temper, and lasting influence, they uncover the people and moments that built Ohio State's football dynasty. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Super Tuesdays - The Worst Version Of Trump We’ve Seen In An Election Year… One Week Out From The Midterms | 27 Oct 2026 | 01:09:10 | |
One week out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza go hunting for the counterfactual — the actual data that would tell a Republican this election isn’t what it looks like — and come back with exactly one: a polling error. “That’s a hell of a thing to bank on.” Chuck argues this is the worst version of Trump we’ve ever seen in an election year, a candidate reduced to the Nobel committee and calling Abdul El-Sayed a “jihadist” in Michigan, while his own top economic adviser went on Fox Business to call the affordability crisis a myth eight days out. Plus: why Democrats may run better in red states than blue, how Republicans sat on their money until it was too late to define Talarico, how Ohio got away entirely, what the Ramaswamy ad says about where the line is, and the new Times/Siena 2028 numbers. Plus their election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS
Timeline: 00:00 One week out: what could still change this, and the red-state theory 07:00 The worst version of Trump, and a party that won’t say “affordability” 13:00 Hunting for the counterfactual, and why every Republican ad is nostalgia 19:00 The money came too late: how they let Talarico define Paxton 24:00 Kalshi: Iowa, Maine and Kansas as the three most divided markets 30:00 Where the line is on the Ramaswamy ad, and building a firewall 36:00 Adding states to the 2028 map, and Minnesota’s outlier year 44:00 Times/Siena 2028: Harris at 12, Vance at 33, and a wide-open field 52:00 “All the Projection”: the election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ 58:00 The World Series, the sports equinox, and a two-Hurricane Heisman problem 1:05:00 Newsphere, one more show on Election Day, and sign-off See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - There’s No Evidence That Disproves The Blue Wave + The “Packers Model” For Local Development? | 26 Oct 2026 | 02:43:42 | |
Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations.
Then, Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats? 15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting 19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash 23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote 29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave 32:15 Republicans have no closing argument 42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins 47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals 57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play 1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles 1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people 1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election 1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days 1:33:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:34:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history 1:37:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it 1:42:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage 1:50:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out 1:56:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development? 1:59:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks 2:02:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem 2:09:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field 2:12:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary 2:21:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job 2:24:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964 2:25:15 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech 2:27:45 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment 2:29:15 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights 2:31:00 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message 2:33:00 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country 2:34:15 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people 2:37:30 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message 2:42:00 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Thomas Nelson - The “Packers Model” For Local Development? | 26 Oct 2026 | 00:56:07 | |
Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history 04:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it 09:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage 17:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out 23:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development? 26:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks 29:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem 36:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field 39:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary 48:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - There’s No Evidence That Disproves The Blue Wave + Candidate Trump Would Destroy President Trump | 26 Oct 2026 | 01:51:30 | |
Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats? 15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting 19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash 23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote 29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave 32:15 Republicans have no closing argument 42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins 47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals 57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play 1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles 1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people 1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election 1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days 1:32:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964 1:33:30 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech 1:36:00 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment 1:37:30 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights 1:39:15 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message 1:41:15 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country 1:42:30 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people 1:45:45 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message 1:50:15 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + J.D. Vance Defends The Indefensible | 22 Oct 2026 | 01:49:04 | |
Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad 12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues 17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters 19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election 24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map 30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification 36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity 43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way? 45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi 51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out 54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it 1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 1:19:00 Ask Chuck 1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out? 1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar? 1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin? 1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out 1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable? 1:39:00 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ William D. Cohan - Media Consolidation, Private Equity & Shadow Banking | 22 Oct 2026 | 00:58:41 | |
Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:30 Will public companies offload their news networks? 04:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN 08:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney 12:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning 17:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money 24:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums 29:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman 36:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback 38:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation 45:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + Media Consolidation, Private Equity & Shadow Banking | 22 Oct 2026 | 02:44:48 | |
Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.
Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad 12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues 17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters 19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election 24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map 30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification 36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity 43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way? 45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi 51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out 54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it 1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 1:21:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:23:30 Will public companies offload their news networks? 1:25:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN 1:29:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney 1:33:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning 1:38:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money 1:45:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums 1:50:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman 1:57:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback 1:59:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation 2:06:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward 2:15:00 Ask Chuck 2:15:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out? 2:19:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar? 2:24:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin? 2:28:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out 2:29:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable? 2:35:00 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Corruption Might Be The Dems’ Best Closing Argument + The Most Disgusting Campaign Ad Of The Cycle | 21 Oct 2026 | 01:28:22 | |
Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.
Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument 06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party 10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami 12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary 14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy 15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton 18:45 Congress needs to investigate 27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption? 32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother 38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it 43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket? 47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now? 0:54:15 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip 0:54:30 #1 North Carolina 0:55:15 #2 Ohio 0:56:30 #3 Texas 0:57:45 #4 Alaska 0:58:15 #5 Maine 0:59:30 #6 Kansas 1:00:45 #7 Michigan 1:02:15 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska 1:07:15 Ask Chuck 1:07:30 Why not eliminate political parties entirely? 1:13:30 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t? 1:17:30 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors? 1:19:45 Could Starshield decision be a war crime? 1:22:45 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Corruption Might Be The Dems’ Best Closing Argument + The Founding Father You’ve Never Heard Of | 21 Oct 2026 | 02:26:04 | |
Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.
Then, Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Chuck get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over.
Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument 06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party 10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami 12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary 14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy 15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton 18:45 Congress needs to investigate 27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption? 32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother 38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it 43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket? 47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now? 56:45 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast 58:15 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris 1:00:45 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison 1:04:15 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten 1:08:30 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw 1:11:45 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office 1:20:15 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror 1:24:15 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812 1:28:00 Laying out the city of New York 1:31:00 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets 1:39:15 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically 1:44:15 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom 1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip 1:52:15 #1 North Carolina 1:53:00 #2 Ohio 1:54:15 #3 Texas 1:55:30 #4 Alaska 1:56:00 #5 Maine 1:57:15 #6 Kansas 1:58:30 #7 Michigan 2:00:00 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska 2:05:00 Ask Chuck 2:05:15 Why not eliminate political parties entirely? 2:11:15 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t? 2:15:15 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors? 2:17:30 Could Starshield decision be a war crime? 2:20:30 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Scott Greenberger - The Founding Father You’ve Never Heard Of | 21 Oct 2026 | 00:59:53 | |
Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Todd get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over.
Timeline: 00:00 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris 04:00 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison 07:30 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten 11:45 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw 15:00 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office 23:30 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror 27:30 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812 31:15 Laying out the city of New York 34:15 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets 42:30 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically 47:30 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Super Tuesdays - Corruption Is Now A Top Voting Issue: That’s Bad News For Trump & Republicans | 20 Oct 2026 | 01:11:06 | |
With 14 days left, Chuck Todd & Chris Cillizza make the argument that should scare Republicans most: corruption has climbed to the number two or three issue, and unlike any other message, it hands a lifelong conservative permission to punish his own party without admitting he was ever wrong. The evidence is already in the ad buys — Trump appeared in 47% of Republican broadcast airings in May and 1% in October — even as he opens a nine-stop closing tour in Wichita and calls the polls rigged. Chuck and Chris dig into why his Senate coattails are a myth Republicans keep believing, read the Kalshi market where an Abbott-plus-Talarico split is the likeliest Texas outcome, and unpack the five-day implosion of press secretary Katie Zacharia. Then the hardest question either of them gets: if Democrats actually sweep, what does December look like? Chuck’s answer is paralysis inside both parties, a Schumer who won’t walk away, and a president who’s less a partisan than a dealmaker. Plus Ann Hornaday, Miami at No. 1, and the cheapest World Series ticket in years. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS Timeline: 00:00 Fourteen days out and Trump’s closing tour 08:00 Corruption, the permission slip, and ad data that gives the game away 15:00 What Trump says versus what he’d actually do after polls close 21:00 Kalshi: the Texas two-race market, vouchers, and the Beshear fight 29:00 The five-day press secretary and a West Wing built to keep Trump busy 35:00 What December actually looks like if Democrats sweep 43:00 DC statehood, the scorpion and the frog, and the race to replace him 49:00 Election-night tea leaves, and whether Schumer walks away 55:00 Miami–Florida State: the double-overtime finish and No. 1 since 2002 1:01:00 A 12-team playoff, Mensah, and the Arch Manning question 1:07:00 Rays–Brewers, and an election-night announcement coming See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Trump’s Treasonous Capitulation To Putin + Rebuilding Newsrooms In The Deep South | 19 Oct 2026 | 02:54:41 | |
Chuck Todd argues the environment hasn’t moved an inch and the only real question is whether this is a Category 1 blue wave or a Category 5 tsunami — with Trump already running the blame game, pre-blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for a Paxton loss. Democratic small-dollar fundraising is enormous, early voting shows higher Black and Latino engagement, and Todd sets the benchmark: 245 House seats is a governing majority, 220-225 isn’t. But the story he keeps circling is Starshield. Reporting indicates Musk pitched throttling Ukraine’s satellite system directly to Trump, who “agreed” — though Trump denies it, Musk points at the government, and two senior officials told CNN the order didn’t come from the president. Todd’s question is the one nobody’s answering: how much control does Elon Musk have over American foreign policy? Then, Andy Lack — the former NBC News and MSNBC chairman who founded Mississippi Today and Deep South Today, and has now committed $12 million to nonprofit journalism — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why he went from running the most-watched news division in the world to building newsrooms in the Deep South. He argues Democrats simply don’t know how to talk to rural voters, white or Black, and describes a Mississippi that has made real gains in early education while still fighting brain drain and a sense of being stuck. On the business, Lack is clear-eyed: trust is the whole formula, video is essential, and the concentration of media ownership among billionaires and tech executives is a genuine threat. Plus what happens to medium-sized markets when the affiliate structure collapses, and why state and local government desperately needs watchdogs again. Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the stock market meltdown on Black Monday, how automation made the problem worse, and what lessons we can draw as we enter the age of AI. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Category 1 wave or Category 5 tsunami? 06:15 Trump gets a head start on the blame game 07:30 Democratic fundraising vs. the GOP’s billionaire money 14:30 What early voting is telling us 19:15 What a real governing majority looks like 24:00 The Senate map, Collins vs. Jackson, and AOC’s million-dollar play 34:15 Nebraska oppo and Bodnar’s internal poll 38:15 Susie Wiles, Katie Zacharia’s five-day tenure, and Trump’s bubble 45:45 How much distance can GOP candidates find? 51:30 Corruption starts to resonate — and Guilfoyle’s burn book 56:00 Trump sides with Putin again, and the diesel deal 1:03:00 The Starshield throttling and who actually ordered it 1:11:30 Republicans struggle to defend it 1:20:30 Andy Lack joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:22:00 Why he founded Deep South Today 1:24:15 Mississippi’s politics, and the openings Democrats miss 1:26:45 Early education gains, brain drain, and a state stuck in the past 1:30:45 The model: pairing capital cities with smaller ones 1:33:00 Local news in a fragmented media era 1:34:45 The formula for success — video, and trust above all 1:45:30 Tech billionaires owning the media ecosystem 1:49:45 What happens when the affiliate structure collapses 2:00:00 Streaming, legacy brands, and journalism in the age of AI 2:05:45 Data centers and how tech engages communities 2:10:15 Expanding into news deserts and why watchdogs matter 2:14:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 19th, 1987 Black Monday 2:15:30 Wall Street finding out the risks of automating decisions 2:18:30 Automation compounded the sell off 2:21:00 Monday arrives and a massive sell off occurs 2:23:30 The underlying economy wouldn’t have dictated a crash 2:25:15 Fed announces it will provide liquidity to keep markets functioning 2:31:30 Market started assuming fed would save them from their stupidity 2:33:15 Similarities with how AI is being regulated today 2:36:45 Ask Chuck 2:37:00 What if Miami had joined the SEC? 2:40:15 What happens to anti-Trump Republicans a decade from now? 2:41:30 How will congress govern & how will Trump respond after a massive wave? 2:45:30 College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Treasonous Capitulation To Putin + Cat 1 Blue Wave Or Cat 5 Blue Tsunami? | 19 Oct 2026 | 02:00:00 | |
Chuck Todd argues the environment hasn’t moved an inch and the only real question is whether this is a Category 1 blue wave or a Category 5 tsunami — with Trump already running the blame game, pre-blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for a Paxton loss. Democratic small-dollar fundraising is enormous, early voting shows higher Black and Latino engagement, and Todd sets the benchmark: 245 House seats is a governing majority, 220-225 isn’t. But the story he keeps circling is Starshield. Reporting indicates Musk pitched throttling Ukraine’s satellite system directly to Trump, who “agreed” — though Trump denies it, Musk points at the government, and two senior officials told CNN the order didn’t come from the president. Todd’s question is the one nobody’s answering: how much control does Elon Musk have over American foreign policy? Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the stock market meltdown on Black Monday, how automation made the problem worse, and what lessons we can draw as we enter the age of AI. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Category 1 wave or Category 5 tsunami? 06:15 Trump gets a head start on the blame game 07:30 Democratic fundraising vs. the GOP’s billionaire money 14:30 What early voting is telling us 19:15 What a real governing majority looks like 24:00 The Senate map, Collins vs. Jackson, and AOC’s million-dollar play 34:15 Nebraska oppo and Bodnar’s internal poll 38:15 Susie Wiles, Katie Zacharia’s five-day tenure, and Trump’s bubble 45:45 How much distance can GOP candidates find? 51:30 Corruption starts to resonate — and Guilfoyle’s burn book 56:00 Trump sides with Putin again, and the diesel deal 1:03:00 The Starshield throttling and who actually ordered it 1:11:30 Republicans struggle to defend it 1:19:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 19th, 1987 Black Monday 1:21:00 Wall Street finding out the risks of automating decisions 1:24:00 Automation compounded the sell off 1:26:30 Monday arrives and a massive sell off occurs 1:29:00 The underlying economy wouldn’t have dictated a crash 1:30:45 Fed announces it will provide liquidity to keep markets functioning 1:37:00 Market started assuming fed would save them from their stupidity 1:38:45 Similarities with how AI is being regulated today 1:42:15 Ask Chuck 1:42:30 What if Miami had joined the SEC? 1:45:45 What happens to anti-Trump Republicans a decade from now? 1:47:00 How will congress govern & how will Trump respond after a massive wave? 1:51:00 College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Andy Lack - Rebuilding Newsrooms In The Deep South | 19 Oct 2026 | 00:58:18 | |
Andy Lack — the former NBC News and MSNBC chairman who founded Mississippi Today and Deep South Today, and has now committed $12 million to nonprofit journalism — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why he went from running the most-watched news division in the world to building newsrooms in the Deep South. He argues Democrats simply don’t know how to talk to rural voters, white or Black, and describes a Mississippi that has made real gains in early education while still fighting brain drain and a sense of being stuck. On the business, Lack is clear-eyed: trust is the whole formula, video is essential, and the concentration of media ownership among billionaires and tech executives is a genuine threat. Plus what happens to medium-sized markets when the affiliate structure collapses, and why state and local government desperately needs watchdogs again.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Andy Lack joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why he founded Deep South Today 03:45 Mississippi’s politics, and the openings Democrats miss 06:15 Early education gains, brain drain, and a state stuck in the past 10:15 The model: pairing capital cities with smaller ones 12:30 Local news in a fragmented media era 14:15 The formula for success — video, and trust above all 25:00 Tech billionaires owning the media ecosystem 29:15 What happens when the affiliate structure collapses 39:30 Streaming, legacy brands, and journalism in the age of AI 45:15 Data centers and how tech engages communities 49:45 Expanding into news deserts and why watchdogs matter See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| The Kevin Harlan Interview | 16 Oct 2026 | 01:00:32 | |
Kevin Harlan joins Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande for the final chapter of Dynastic's Green Bay Packers series. Growing up in Green Bay as the son of longtime Packers president Bob Harlan, Kevin witnessed the franchise's transformation firsthand. From the fading glory of Vince Lombardi's dynasty to the resurgence under Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Harlan offers a behind-the-scenes perspective on one of the most remarkable organizations in professional sports. Kevin shares untold stories about the Packers' financial struggles, the signing of Reggie White, the transformation of Lambeau Field, and the decisions that helped secure the franchise's future. He also reflects on the legendary Ice Bowl, the origins of the Lambeau Leap, and what makes Green Bay unlike any other NFL city. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Dr. Ayanna Howard - Higher Ed In The Age Of AI | 15 Oct 2026 | 01:05:10 | |
Dr. Ayanna Howard — the former NASA JPL roboticist who became Spelman College’s 12th president in August — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue America needs a dedicated federal agency to oversee AI, regulated by specialty rather than treated as one monolithic technology. Her warning is pragmatic: without guardrails, the backlash after an inevitable bad event will be enormous. She explains why there is no such thing as general AI, why the technology is simultaneously oversold and improving fast, and why models trained on history risk writing marginalized groups out of it. On education, Howard argues critical thinking and basic learning skills matter more than ever, that COVID lockdowns damaged study and social skills in ways schools still haven’t addressed, and that the demographic cliff will force some universities to close. Plus: why America still hasn’t built a moon base. Timeline: 00:00 Dr. Ayanna Howard joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:30 From NASA to academia 05:15 The case for a new federal AI agency 08:45 Guardrails, backlash, and regulating by specialty 11:45 What people fundamentally misunderstand about AI 17:45 The risk of AI training on an incomplete history 21:00 Teaching math and critical thinking in the AI era 29:30 The demographic cliff and universities that won’t survive 32:00 Spelman’s focus, trade schools, and classical education 36:45 Reforming K-12 and the lingering damage from lockdowns 44:00 Equity in AI development and the case for diverse models 50:15 Why we haven’t gone back to the moon
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - How America Can Produce Another “Leader Of The Free World” + Republicans Risk Losing Latinos For Decades | 15 Oct 2026 | 01:44:36 | |
Chuck Todd opens with Saturday’s fourth No Kings rally and the question of whether protest energy converts to turnout — noting the movement may now be more credible with voters than the Democratic Party itself. Then the story out of Pensacola Beach: ICE confronted four roofers repairing Hurricane Isaias damage at the Grand Marlin, and the men refused to come down until agents left, sending their paperwork down instead. Todd calls targeting hurricane recovery workers egregious and terrible politics with Hispanic voters, especially with families afraid to use storm shelters. The back half turns philosophical — Bill Kristol’s four leaders who’ve emerged as defenders of the world order (Zelenskyy, Magyar, Carney, Pope Leo) and Todd’s argument that America is perfectly capable of producing someone similar, if Democrats don’t mistake a midterm win for a mandate.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews a huge upcoming weekend in college football.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 No Kings and converting protest energy into turnout 07:45 ICE confronts hurricane recovery workers in Pensacola 14:45 Why this is terrible politics with Hispanic voters 15:45 Roger Marshall’s desperation ad 19:15 Accelerating inflation and a bleaker environment for the GOP 21:15 Ossoff rules out 2028, Wes Moore keeps the door open 24:00 Raskin’s Smithsonian proposal and the problem with negative ads 31:00 Could a viable independent stop the GOP in swing states? 38:30 Kristol’s four defenders of the world order 47:00 Could America produce a leader like that? 50:45 What the GOP does after a repudiation 54:15 The wrong lesson Democrats could learn from winning 58:30 The next president inherits a mess 1:11:00 Ask Chuck 1:11:15 Is Trump truly this out of touch about the struggle of everyday Americans? 1:15:00 Could a wave produce massive gains for Dems at state level in Iowa 1:18:45 How much can media bias and coverage skew narratives? 1:24:30 Could a gas tax holiday meaningfully change perception of economy? 1:26:00 Where would a livestream execution actually be platformed? 1:29:45 College football preview
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - How America Can Produce Another “Leader Of The Free World” + Higher Ed In The Age Of AI | 15 Oct 2026 | 02:43:42 | |
Chuck Todd opens with Saturday’s fourth No Kings rally and the question of whether protest energy converts to turnout — noting the movement may now be more credible with voters than the Democratic Party itself. Then the story out of Pensacola Beach: ICE confronted four roofers repairing Hurricane Isaias damage at the Grand Marlin, and the men refused to come down until agents left, sending their paperwork down instead. Todd calls targeting hurricane recovery workers egregious and terrible politics with Hispanic voters, especially with families afraid to use storm shelters. The back half turns philosophical — Bill Kristol’s four leaders who’ve emerged as defenders of the world order (Zelenskyy, Magyar, Carney, Pope Leo) and Todd’s argument that America is perfectly capable of producing someone similar, if Democrats don’t mistake a midterm win for a mandate.
Then, Dr. Ayanna Howard — the former NASA JPL roboticist who became Spelman College’s 12th president in August — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue America needs a dedicated federal agency to oversee AI, regulated by specialty rather than treated as one monolithic technology. Her warning is pragmatic: without guardrails, the backlash after an inevitable bad event will be enormous. She explains why there is no such thing as general AI, why the technology is simultaneously oversold and improving fast, and why models trained on history risk writing marginalized groups out of it. On education, Howard argues critical thinking and basic learning skills matter more than ever, that COVID lockdowns damaged study and social skills in ways schools still haven’t addressed, and that the demographic cliff will force some universities to close. Plus: why America still hasn’t built a moon base.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews a huge upcoming weekend in college football.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 No Kings and converting protest energy into turnout 07:45 ICE confronts hurricane recovery workers in Pensacola 14:45 Why this is terrible politics with Hispanic voters 15:45 Roger Marshall’s desperation ad 19:15 Accelerating inflation and a bleaker environment for the GOP 21:15 Ossoff rules out 2028, Wes Moore keeps the door open 24:00 Raskin’s Smithsonian proposal and the problem with negative ads 31:00 Could a viable independent stop the GOP in swing states? 38:30 Kristol’s four defenders of the world order 47:00 Could America produce a leader like that? 50:45 What the GOP does after a repudiation 54:15 The wrong lesson Democrats could learn from winning 58:30 The next president inherits a mess 1:12:00 Dr. Ayanna Howard joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:14:30 From NASA to academia 1:17:15 The case for a new federal AI agency 1:20:45 Guardrails, backlash, and regulating by specialty 1:23:45 What people fundamentally misunderstand about AI 1:29:45 The risk of AI training on an incomplete history 1:33:00 Teaching math and critical thinking in the AI era 1:41:30 The demographic cliff and universities that won’t survive 1:44:00 Spelman’s focus, trade schools, and classical education 1:48:45 Reforming K-12 and the lingering damage from lockdowns 1:56:00 Equity in AI development and the case 2:10:15 Ask Chuck 2:10:30 Is Trump truly this out of touch about the struggle of everyday Americans? 2:14:15 Could a wave produce massive gains for Dems at state level in Iowa 2:18:00 How much can media bias and coverage skew narratives? 2:23:45 Could a gas tax holiday meaningfully change perception of economy? 2:25:15 Where would a livestream execution actually be platformed? 2:29:00 College football preview
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Republicans In Triage Mode As The Map Gets Worse + Ranking Colleges By ROI Rather Than Prestige | 14 Oct 2026 | 02:21:22 | |
Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July.
Then, Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label 10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter 13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help 15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina 18:15 How big can the House wave get? 21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play 26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem 33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces 37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement 41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility 47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 57:30 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast 59:30 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools 1:03:00 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure 1:08:00 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble 1:13:00 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking 1:18:00 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about 1:22:45 Higher ed as a political wedge issue 1:27:30 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform 1:33:30 What AI actually does to the value of a degree 1:38:45 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale 1:44:00 The standout state systems and what makes them work 1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips 1:55:30 #1 Iowa 1:56:45 #2 Kansas 1:58:15 #3 Ohio 1:59:00 #4 Alaska 1:59:45 #5 Texas 2:00:30 #6 Georgia 2:01:30 #7 Nevada 2:02:30 #8 Oregon 2:03:30 #9 Wisconsin 2:04:00 #10 Florida 2:06:30 Ask Chuck 2:06:45 Predictions for Missouri house race 2:09:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed? 2:13:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success? 2:14:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers? 2:18:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Paul Glastris - Ranking Colleges By Value Rather Than Prestige | 14 Oct 2026 | 00:58:11 | |
Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country. Timeline: 00:00 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:00 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools 05:30 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure 10:30 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble 15:30 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking 20:30 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about 25:15 Higher ed as a political wedge issue 30:00 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform 36:00 What AI actually does to the value of a degree 41:15 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale 46:30 The standout state systems and what makes them work See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans In Triage Mode As The Map Gets Worse + Elon’s Insane Campaign Spending | 14 Oct 2026 | 01:24:16 | |
Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label 10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter 13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help 15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina 18:15 How big can the House wave get? 21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play 26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem 33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces 37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement 41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility 47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 55:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips 58:30 #1 Iowa 59:45 #2 Kansas 1:01:15 #3 Ohio 1:02:00 #4 Alaska 1:02:45 #5 Texas 1:03:30 #6 Georgia 1:04:30 #7 Nevada 1:05:30 #8 Oregon 1:06:30 #9 Wisconsin 1:07:00 #10 Florida 1:09:30 Ask Chuck 1:09:45 Predictions for Missouri house race 1:12:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed? 1:16:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success? 1:17:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers? 1:21:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Super Tuesdays - Republicans Reek Of Panic & Desperation As The Midterms Loom | 13 Oct 2026 | 01:09:49 | |
Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS
Timeline: 00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it 06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief 12:00 Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone 18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave? 22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas 30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race 36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do 41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting 46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it 50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol 54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this 1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guy See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Are We Underestimating The Democratic Wave? + The Case Against AI Doomerism | 12 Oct 2026 | 02:51:45 | |
Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. Then, AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and it’s impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at? 10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic 12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think 19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024 23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions 25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates 28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map 34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates 39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters 47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo 56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 1:06:30 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:08:30 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI 1:11:30 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair 1:14:00 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive 1:18:30 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years 1:25:30 What risk level should we demand from AI companies? 1:26:45 The nuclear power cautionary tale 1:31:45 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts 1:38:30 Silicon Valley’s communication problem 1:43:00 Accountability, visibility, and young companies 1:50:30 Where does a free-market conservative go now? 1:56:30 Competition, monopolies, and the China race narrative 2:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912 2:06:30 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway 2:10:00 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power 2:13:00 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out 2:16:45 The Bull Moose Party is born 2:17:30 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump 2:19:30 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal 2:23:00 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it 2:25:30 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties 2:27:30 Ask Chuck 2:27:45 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job? 2:32:30 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize? 2:35:30 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity? 2:38:00 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel? 2:40:00 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps? 2:45:00 College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ James Pethokoukis - The Case Against AI Doomerism | 12 Oct 2026 | 01:03:03 | |
AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership
Timeline: 00:00 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:00 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI 05:00 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair 07:30 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive 12:00 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years 19:00 What risk level should we demand from AI companies? 20:15 The nuclear power cautionary tale 25:15 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts 32:00 Silicon Valley’s communication problem 36:30 Accountability, visibility, and young companies 44:00 Where does a free-market conservative go now? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary- Are We Underestimating The Democratic Wave? + Pete Hegseth Is A Sick, Broken Man | 12 Oct 2026 | 01:50:09 | |
Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and its impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at? 10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic 12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think 19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024 23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions 25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates 28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map 34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates 39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters 47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo 56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 1:04:15 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912 1:04:45 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway 1:08:15 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power 1:11:15 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out 1:15:00 The Bull Moose Party is born 1:15:45 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump 1:17:45 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal 1:21:15 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it 1:23:45 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties 1:25:45 Ask Chuck 1:26:00 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job? 1:30:45 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize? 1:33:45 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity? 1:36:15 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel? 1:38:15 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps? 1:43:15 College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Could Democrats Actually Win 270+ House Seats? + Wargaming An American Coup | 08 Oct 2026 | 02:41:06 | |
Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats.
Then, Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus 13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps 17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple 25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending 28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late 31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates 34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean 42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing 46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats 54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test 1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 1:13:15 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:14:15 The simulation, the three factions, and how it works 1:17:15 Why the Nationalists keep winning 1:22:00 The predictable playbook of authoritarians 1:25:30 What happens if 2028 is disputed 1:33:45 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats 1:36:30 The midterms as practice for 2028 1:42:30 The next 75 days and seating the winners 1:45:15 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians 1:55:30 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI 2:00:00 Is the constitutional period already over? 2:07:45 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope 2:18:00 Ask Chuck 2:18:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle 2:20:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain 2:21:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea? 2:22:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross? 2:24:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham? 2:30:15 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Could Democrats Actually Win 270+ House Seats? + The Scott Bessent Mess At The Treasury | 08 Oct 2026 | 01:33:36 | |
Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus 13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps 17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple 25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending 28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late 31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates 34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean 42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing 46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats 54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test 1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 1:11:00 Ask Chuck 1:11:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle 1:13:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain 1:14:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea? 1:15:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross? 1:18:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham? 1:23:15 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Dmitri Mehlhorn - Wargaming An American Coup | 08 Oct 2026 | 01:08:47 | |
Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028.
Timeline: 00:00 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:00The simulation, the three factions, and how it works 04:00 Why the Nationalists keep winning 08:45 The predictable playbook of authoritarians 12:15 What happens if 2028 is disputed 20:30 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats 23:15 The midterms as practice for 2028 29:15 The next 75 days and seating the winners 32:00 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians 42:15 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI 46:45 Is the constitutional period already over? 54:30 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Marcia Chatelain - Black Women Built The 1963 March on Washington… Then Were Written Out Of It | 07 Oct 2026 | 00:56:14 | |
Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never breaks through, and whether AI will sanitize history further. Timeline: 00:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Might Be The Democrats’ Best Midterm Asset + It’s Been A Strange Campaign Season… | 07 Oct 2026 | 01:27:22 | |
Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go 06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand 08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance 11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade 14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump 19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip 21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot 25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters 30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine 35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip 38:30 #1 North Carolina 39:15 #2 Alaska 41:00 #3 Ohio 42:45 #4 Texas 44:30 #5 Maine 46:30 #6 Kansas 47:15 #7 Iowa 49:00 #8 Michigan 52:00 #9 Nebraska 54:15 #10 South Carolina 59:00 Ask Chuck 59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists? 1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center? 1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum? 1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective? 1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Trump Might Be The Democrats’ Best Midterm Asset + Black Women Built The 1963 March on Washington… Then Were Written Out Of It | 07 Oct 2026 | 02:22:15 | |
Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. Then, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never break through, and whether AI will sanitize history further. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go 06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand 08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance 11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade 14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump 19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip 21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot 25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters 30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine 35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 40:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast 41:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington 44:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about 49:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered 52:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak 55:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism 1:02:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists 1:09:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through 1:14:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources 1:25:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian 1:32:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip 1:33:30 #1 North Carolina 1:34:15 #2 Alaska 1:36:00 #3 Ohio 1:37:45 #4 Texas 1:39:30 #5 Maine 1:41:30 #6 Kansas 1:42:15 #7 Iowa 1:44:00 #8 Michigan 1:47:00 #9 Nebraska 1:49:15 #10 South Carolina 1:54:00 Ask Chuck 1:54:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists? 1:59:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center? 2:03:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum? 2:07:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective? 2:11:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| The Green Bay Packers: How They Became the NFL’s Most Enduring Dynasty (Part 2) | 06 Oct 2026 | 02:11:41 | |
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande trace Green Bay from the Ice Bowl and first Super Bowls through the post-Lombardi struggles and the franchise’s eventual rebirth with Brett Favre, Reggie White and Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers became an NFL dynasty under Vince Lombardi. But what happened when the man who built it left? It’s the story of how the Packers built a dynasty that endured across generations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Super Tuesdays - It’s Not A Blue Wave… Voters Just REALLY Don’t Like Republicans | 06 Oct 2026 | 01:02:05 | |
Twenty-eight days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza stress-test their own assumptions: if everything points one direction, what could still be wrong? They work through all three counterfactuals — the Republican money advantage, a polling miss, and the fact that it's October 6th and not November 2nd — and find the money argument weakest, since the GOP has owned the airwaves for six weeks with no discernible movement. That sets up the episode's central frame, borrowed from Charlie Cook: this is a red undertow, not a blue wave, because the fight is happening in light-red and formerly purple states where Republicans own the status quo and there's no Democrat left to blame. The weekend's five New York Times/Siena polls back it up — Talarico at 51 in Texas, Kansas tied, and Ashley Hinson clinging to a one-point lead in the race Chuck calls the most predictive on the board. He also floats a tinfoil-hat theory about who benefits from leaked audio making Ken Paxton look ungrateful, a day before Politico published exactly that. Plus the Kalshi board and where Susan Collins is underpriced, Ted Cruz firing back at JD Vance, Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round win and what it signals about a Trump on the 2028 ballot, and Trump posting Tom Cotton's cell number over daylight saving time. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SuperTuesdays http://kalshi.com/r/SuperTuesdays Timeline: 00:00 Twenty-eight days out — and the case that we're all wrong 04:00 Red undertow, not blue wave: why the map explains everything 08:00 Five NYT/Siena polls, and the one race Chuck would want to know 14:00 Iowa as the tell — and the Republicans who are one turnover away 16:00 The tinfoil hat theory about Paxton, and the money pit called Texas 20:00 Talarico at 51 — the point where money stops mattering 26:00 The Kalshi board: 48 seats, Collins as the value & overpriced governors 35:00 If Collins wins, it's one of the great holds of all time 39:00 A little 2028: Vance baits Cruz, and why Rand Paul is the real threat 45:00 Night golf, $90 checks & the rise of the "meatloaf Republicans" 51:00 Bolsonaro's son wins round one — and the Trump 2028 question 53:00 Baseball playoffs, the ball off the roof & a Packers team with no line
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Voters Don’t Like Democrats… But They Want To Fire The Republicans + Pete Hegseth Needs To Be Impeached | 05 Oct 2026 | 01:48:21 | |
A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football.
Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage 09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers 13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans 16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split 20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved 23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics 27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks 31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time 35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt 41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 57:30 ToddCast Time Machine Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice 58:00 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS 1:00:30 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren 1:02:00 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat 1:05:00 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0 1:08:30 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren 1:10:30 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights 1:15:45 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices 1:17:15 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman 1:21:00 Ask Chuck 1:21:15 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing? 1:26:00 Best comedic political impressions? 1:29:45 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami 1:33:00 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson 1:34:30 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive? 1:38:45 College football recap 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Jennifer Palmieri - How Can Democrats Win In The South? | 05 Oct 2026 | 01:03:15 | |
Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Voters Don’t Like Democrats… But They Want To Fire The Republicans + How Can Democrats Win In The South? | 05 Oct 2026 | 02:47:02 | |
A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment.
Then, Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage 09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers 13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans 16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split 20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved 23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics 27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks 31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time 35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt 41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 58:00 Jennifer Palmieri joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:00:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics 1:04:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one 1:12:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state 1:18:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it 1:21:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places 1:28:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas 1:30:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign 1:36:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem 1:45:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem 1:53:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026 1:56:00 ToddCast Time Machine Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Trump’s Republican Party Is Infected With Intellectual Rot + How Democrats Can Compete In Florida Again | 01 Oct 2026 | 02:00:51 | |
Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology.
Then, Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened 11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode 17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP 27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact 31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all 36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore 39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take 43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 00:55:45 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:56:45 From community organizing to the statehouse 01:01:15 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it 01:04:15 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it 01:10:15 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee 01:16:30 What she wants to do in the Senate 01:22:15 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings 01:28:15 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer 1:35:15 Ask Chuck 1:35:30 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history 1:37:15 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed 1:39:00 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas? 1:42:30 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI? 1:44:45 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America? 1:49:45 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Angie Nixon - How Democrats Can Compete In Florida Again | 01 Oct 2026 | 00:45:13 | |
Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:00 From community organizing to the statehouse 05:30 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it 08:30 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it 14:30 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee 20:45 What she wants to do in the Senate 26:30 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings 32:30 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Republican Party Is Infected With Intellectual Rot + The Best Polling Issues Favor Democrats | 01 Oct 2026 | 01:18:14 | |
Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened 11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode 17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP 27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact 31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all 36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore 39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take 43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 00:52:30 Ask Chuck 00:52:45 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history 00:54:30 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed 00:56:15 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas? 01:00:45 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI? 01:02:00 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America? 01:07:00 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Dana Bash - The Elections That Changed The World | 30 Sep 2026 | 01:11:18 | |
CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:00 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"? 05:45 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales 08:00 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward 16:30 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao 22:30 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church 26:30 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies 33:45 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time 45:00 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas 59:30 Covering a second-term Trump White House See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - The Circus In The Senate Judiciary Committee + The Elections That Changed The World | 30 Sep 2026 | 02:39:49 | |
Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project. Then, CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight 03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump 09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle 13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for 16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating 22:45 Public education as an American advantage 25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked 30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything 40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price 47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 58:45 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast 59:45 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World" 1:44:30 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales 1:46:45 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward 1:15:15 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao 1:21:15 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church 1:25:15 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies 1:32:30 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time 1:43:45 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas 1:58:15 Covering a second-term Trump White House 2:04:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028 2:05:00 #5 Does an independent break through? 2:09:30 #4 California’s wealth tax 2:08:45 #3 Texas senate 2:10:15 #2 Texas governor 2:11:45 #1 Michigan senate 2:13:45 Ask Chuck 2:14:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments? 2:18:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning? 2:23:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms? 2:25:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control? 2:30:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - The Circus In The Senate Judiciary Committee + Vouchers Failed… How To Really Fix Public Schools | 30 Sep 2026 | 01:32:48 | |
Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight 03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump 09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle 13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for 16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating 22:45 Public education as an American advantage 25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked 30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything 40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price 47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 00:57:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028 00:58:00 #5 Does an independent break through? 01:00:15 #4 California’s wealth tax 01:01:45 #3 Texas senate 01:03:15 #2 Texas governor 01:04:45 #1 Michigan senate 01:06:45 Ask Chuck 01:07:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments? 01:11:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning? 01:16:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms? 01:18:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control? 01:23:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Super Tuesdays - Trump Keeps Playing The Hits While The Iran War Tanks The Economy | 29 Sep 2026 | 01:13:04 | |
Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one.
Timeline: 00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp 08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump? 18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved 26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio 30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen 40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate 48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks 54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets 1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced 1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes "18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Has Become The Entire Election + We Need To Update The 25th Amendment | 28 Sep 2026 | 01:43:42 | |
Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election 06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested 14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll 16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad 21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them 26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas 31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America 40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike 45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 57:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919 58:45 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations 1:00:00 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke 1:02:15 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated 1:03:45 Nobody was able to remove Wilson 1:05:30 States ratified the 25th amendment 1:07:15 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor 1:09:00 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation 1:10:00 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know 1:13:15 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment 1:16:30 Ask Chuck 1:16:45 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump? 1:21:15 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms? 1:26:00 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi? 1:28:15 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms? 1:31:15 NFL/College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Full Episode - Trump Has Become The Entire Election + Trump Screwed The Ag States… Can Democrats Win Them Back? | 28 Sep 2026 | 02:44:06 | |
Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll. Then, former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election 06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested 14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll 16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad 21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them 26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas 31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America 40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike 45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 59:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:01:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture 1:04:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force 1:09:00 What can actually lower beef prices 1:15:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches 1:21:00 Food security is national security 1:28:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest 1:35:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change 1:44:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa? 1:51:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like 1:58:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919 1:59:15 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations 2:00:30 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke 2:02:45 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated 2:04:15 Nobody was able to remove Wilson 2:06:00 States ratified the 25th amendment 2:07:45 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor 2:09:30 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation 2:10:30 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know 2:13:45 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment 2:17:00 Ask Chuck 2:17:15 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump? 2:21:45 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms? 2:26:30 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi? 2:28:45 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms? 2:31:45 NFL/College football recap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||
| Interview Only w/ Tom Vilsack - Trump Screwed The Ag States… Can Democrats Win Them Back? | 28 Sep 2026 | 01:04:44 | |
Former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, now CEO of the World Food Prize Foundation — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture 05:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force 10:00 What can actually lower beef prices 16:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches 22:00 Food security is national security 29:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest 36:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change 45:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa? 52:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. | |||