Dre and Brian are back! We talk, well, a ton of the NBA and more

• Should teams trade for Jimmy Butler?
• The Wins Produced Numbers are back at Boxscore Geeks, and general stats overview/advice.
• Standout and top teams in the NBA.
• How OKC is just scary, so so scary.
• Who deserves MVP?

Thanks for listening!

Dre and Brian are back to recap the 2024 NBA Finals. How do the 2024 Celtics rack up all time?

Dre and Brian return to talk the end of the NBA Cup, if Joel Embiid is MVP, how Harden is doing on the Clippers, a couple of NBA scandals and feuds!

We're back to talk:

The Phoenix Suns

How Nikola Jokic and Tyrese Haliburton are generational MVP talents this season.

The Minnesota TImberwolves finally being good!
The Rookie of the Year race with Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembenyama

Our thoughts on the NBA Cup aka the in-season tournament with some design advice from Brian.

The Golden State Warriors, of course.

Shout out to @AtomicNBA on X!

We're thrilled to have special guest Scott Williams on the podcast today. Scott is a fifteen year NBA veteran and three time title winner. Scott is on to discuss his book "Through the Fire: A Memoir of Trauma and Loss, Basketball and Triumph."

• We talk Scott's time at UNC with Dean Smith and how he overcame major tragedy including domestic abuse.
• Scott's time in the NBA and what it was like playing with MJ, Iverson, and LeBron
• Why Scott is the ultimate answer for the coolest (nerdiest?) NBA game Immaculate Grid.

You can find Scott at

• ScottWill42 on Instagram
• Scottwilliams1767 on TikTok
• and at his site https://www.scottwilliamsbasketball.com/

We're back after three weeks! The NBA started right after we recorded this, so a lot to discuss including:

• The 76ers and Clippers and if they should pull the trigger for James Harden
• Has Dre joined the Wembanyama hype train?
• Is Boston the favorite?
• The Grizzlies and how fast predictions fall apart.
• The Warriors look good but do they have weaknesses?
• Will the Phoenix Suns have an amazing offense?
• Can Ben Simmons make a comeback?
• Will Chet and the Thunder impress this year?

We even end with a hypothetical question about if playing time in the NBA matters for injuries!

Enjoy!

The slumber of the offseason is over! We discuss the major Damian Lillard trade and follow up trades. Meaning we go over, in depth:

• The state of the Portland Trail Blazers
• The state of the Milwaukee Bucks
• The state of the Phoenix Suns
• The state of the Boston Celtics

 Broadcasted live on Twitch -- Watch live at https://www.twitch.tv/nerdnumbers

We talk:

• Anthony Davis' big contract.
• The demise of the PAC 12
• ESPN getting directly in the sports betting arena
• Rank over 130 NBA Nicknames!

Thanks to:

• Basketball Reference - https://basketball-reference.com
• Thomas Neumann - https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/li...
• Pat Heery - https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...
• Brady Klopfer (https://twitter.com/BradyKlopferNBA) - https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/12/...
• Howard Fear (https://twitter.com/hsfear)
• "Regular American" (https://twitter.com/Bot_From_Russia)
• Logan Trent (https://twitter.com/TheLoganTrent) 

We're back! We discuss:

• The Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis signings in Boston and why both are bad, but Boston will likely still be good.
• Briefly about Bronnie and how sports has a sad history of risk, even to the young and healthy.
• We review a list of 101 NBA Nicknames (https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/lists/greatest-nicknames-in-nba-history/ thanks Thomas Neumann!) and prepare for a fun Tier game in a few weeks.

We're back to talk:

• NBA Free Agency and why contract analysis is difficult -- unlike player evaluation.
• Damian Lillard's current saga in Portland
• Every, if not most, important free agency signing as of 7/11/2023. Some highlights:
  • Austin Reeves
  • Haliburton vs Sabonis
  • Brook Lopez
• Why Andre Drummond's sentiment that being a good teammate in attitude matters, really, his stats just aren't as important as others in terms of pay in the NBA.

We're back we talk:

• The NBA Finals and Dre's firsthand account of the Nuggets' historic win.
• The Chris Paul Trades, why the Suns and Wizards are who we thought they were, and the Warriors are light years ahead again.
• Why Bradley Beal and Devin Booker don't make sense next to each other.
• How the Warriors did well "drafting" Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis and how Mike Dunleavy has the right expectations.
• How the Celtics and Grizzlies lost the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and why it's harder to tell than you think.
• We're meh on the John Collins and Rudy Gay trade.
• Some top level NBA Draft thoughts, sorry, no real in-depth analysis here!

Brian and Dre talk the  NBA Finals, what happened to Boston, Bob Myers exit in Golden State, and Jimmy Butler's attitude. Tune in!

Professor David Berri returns to talk "Slaying the Trolls" the book he wrote with UMass' Vice Chancellor for Equity and Inclusion Nefertiti Walker. It deconstructs many of the myths in women sports, and touches on a lot of NBA and WNBA, which we love!

Andrew Sutton returns to talk the NBA Conference Finals with Brian and Dre.

We also talk:

• Doc Rivers firing
• Are the Heat for real?
• Can the Nuggets make the finals?
• Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.

Brian and Dre return to talk:

• Dillon Brooks plummeting value and foolish trash talk.
• Injuries in the NBA Playoffs.
• Every 2nd Round Series, including optimism for the Warriors - which paid off!

Tune in!

Brian and Dre are back to talk:
De'Aaron Fox and Jaren Jackson Jr. winning the first two NBA awards of award season.

All of the NBA Playoffs, especially the Nuggets and Warriors.

Draymond Green's stomp, and why the NBA's handling of it was already bad, and spoilers, we'll definitely talk how it gets worse.

Also, be sure to check out the Nerd! Podcast with Brian, Dre, and Jeff this week (Brian is a guest host!) to discuss Magic the Gathering. It's found under the Jeff has Cool Fans banner anywhere podcasts are found or at patreon.com/jeffmay.

Thanks!

We're back to talk:

• The NCAA and March Madness' End
• Catlin Clark and Angel Reese's "feud"
• MVPs and why Embiid briefly wasn't deserving and is now the favorite
• Why the Warriors aren't a threat in the playoffs.
• We also break a pack of 1990-1991 Fleer Cards, but the video for that can be found at youtube.com/@nerdnumbers

Podcast Week - BSG, Ted Lasso (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-creativity-education-and-leadership-podcast/id1567287356), and Star Wars CCG ()https://www.patreon.com/jeffmay), oh my!

State of the Western Conference, Including Highlights for

• The Grizzlies
• The Kings
• The Mavericks

Deep Dive on the Denver Nuggets. Boring answer - Jamal Murray doesn’t look 100%

We skip March Madness Bracket talk but highly suggest:

https://twitter.com/DataStrictly and https://twitter.com/TyWillinganz if you want good advice

We discuss why the NCAA is a bad farm system, how the top draft picks aren’t NCAA players, and how players like Zion hurt themselves going to school.

We end Rookie of the Year and why Walker Kessler, currently ranked 4th at NBA dot coms Rookie of the Year race, is ranked 4th, behind two players we say are terrible.

Zach Edey is Brian’s potential Rookie of the Year for next year IF a team has the fortitude to play him.

Some shout-outs to high school basketball squads. Oakland High Basketball - Boys and Girls! And DePere’s Basketball Squad. 

Dre and Brian return to talk:

The current state of the Warriors, and what's gone wrong and what's gone right?

The Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo and some of the frustrating realities about how the NBA is really a big grift for billionaires.

We check in early on the Mavericks/Nets trade. We question if the Nets are making mistakes or if Ben Simmons is more injured than we thought, a running theme.

We also check in a few times on the Portland Trail Blazers and Damian Lillard a few times.

Enjoy!

Holy cow, we go over every major trade at the NBA Trade Deadline including:

• Kyrie Irving for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith
• D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt to the Lakers
• Kevin Durant to the Suns!
• Josh Hart and Matisse Thybulle for the Knicks and Blazers, in another four-team trade
• Gary Payton and James Wiseman in a four-team trade with the Warriors
• Mason Plumlee to the Clippers

Dre and Brian return to talk:

The Nuggets Finals hopes!

How parity has "Returned to the NBA" and top draft picks have vanished from the top.

Why the trade market may not solve all teams woes.

Why defense remains a hard concept, and what even is defense?

Tune in!

• Find Dave on Twitter and Instagram as @wagesofwins
• FIne Dre on Twitter and Instragram as @nerdnumbers.
• You can check out nerdnumbers.substack.com for show notes, articles, and more! 

On this show, we discuss:

• Why a lot of people do science wrong.
• WNBA and NBA players being underpaid, even adjusting for league revenue.
• How the WNBA and NBA are like different weight classes in boxing.
• What Donovan Mitchell's numbers look like and why he's an MVP candidate.
• Dave Berri, Forbes, and the NBA and how Dave disagreed with them on how WNBA players were paid.
• We also compare writing to golf and gymnastics.

We talk Dre's post on NBA Award Trophies

Why Luka Doncic is the obvious MVP.

Some surprise NBA players like Lauri Markannen and Donovan Mitchell.

Dre and Brian return to talk the Conference Finals and some of the previous NBA Playoffs. Do the Wolves have a chance? We recorded this before Luka definitively answered no. Also some sad Bill Walton talk and some WNBA talk.

Dr. Jonathan Weiler (@jonweiler) joins the show! Dr. Weiler is a professor at UNC Chapel Hill, specializing in economics and politics. He also has a great Substack - jonathanweiler.substack.com. He also has the fantastic podcast "The Agony of Defeat" with Matt Andrews. He joins us to talk:

• Kyrie Irving and the deafening silence in the NBA about antisemitism.
• The New York Knicks and why the look bad and good at the same time, from someone that remembers when they were great.
• The 2022 Midterms and a ton of politics. Don't worry, we get a fair number of sports numbers in.

We're back to talk:

• The start of the NBA season. Featured teams are the Nuggets, the Warriors, the Grizzlies, the Mavericks, the Pelicans, the Cavaliers, and the Jazz.
• Is tanking a good strategy, and is Victor Wembanyama worth it?
• Dre was wrong about Russell Westbrook :(
• More chess controversy and why cheating is chess is a lot like Steph Curry's shot!

Tune in!

Recorded 10-4-2022

We're back to talk:

Small Sample Size Theater. Overreacting to preseason games! Including James Wiseman, Ben Simmons, Michael Porter Jr., and more!

Tyler Herro's massive contract and if it's worth it (spoiler, it's not)

Aaron Judge's Home Run Record and a brief history lesson.

A whole lot more on the Hans Niemann / Magnus Carlsen chess scandal.

We're back we talk:

(0:54) - A little warm-up talking about Brian's Warriors

(14:29) - Rob Sarver's Suspension and Fine

(32:37) - Robert William's Injury

(47:49) - Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen's Chess Drama

Shameless self-promotion, I just did a podcast with Jeff May on Zelda 2: The Adventure of Link. Check it out here - https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/shut-up-nerd-episode-1-zelda-2.

Also, I'm aiming to stream every Tuesday (next one on September 27th) at twitch.tv/rixtergt at 10pm EST playing a vintage NES game. Next up? Megaman 4! The other Tuesdays? Brian and I will record the Boxscore Geeks Show at twitch.tv/nerdnumbers

Dre and Brian discuss:

• Kevin Durant "staying put" in Brooklyn
• The Donovan Mitchell trade to Cleveland
• Some, definitely behind the news cycle by the time this is released, chess talk on Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann at the Sinquefield Cup.

We're back to talk about the relevant NBA trades and free-agent signings as of July 6th, 2022.

Special thanks to Spotrac for having such information readily available:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/ - Trades

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ - Free Agent tracker

Also, I review a substack piece I had on Jalen Brunson and contract rates in the modern CBA. https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/is-jalen-brunson-worth-100-million

Welcome Ben Guest for a new segment we'll be calling: "20 Second Timeout with Ben Guest", where we quickly discuss a topical subject that we don't want to wait for our "weekly" shows. Today's topic? The NBA Finals! 

Also, if you stick around to the end, I read my most recent substack article.

You can find Ben on Twitter as @bguest, his newsletter and podcast at benbo.substack.com, and his book "Zen and the Art of Coaching Basketball" is available on Amazon.com!

We're back to wrap up the NBA Conference Finals and discuss our picks for the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson Trophies.

We also "predict" the NBA Finals, with some notes on how Marcus Smart's defensive takes are wrong, and it all hinges on Robert Williams' minutes.

• Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
• Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
• Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
• Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

Shout out to Greg Steele's new site - https://www.thebasketballdatabase.com/

Brian and Dre are back to talk:

Nikola Jokic's MVP season and why Joel Embiid is a hilariously bad, albeit positive option.

The Timberwolves "overzealous" celebration in their play-in victory.

Some predictions on the first round of the NBA playoffs.

This episode was recorded Thursday April 14th.

Dre and Brian are back to talk

• The opening round of the NBA Playoffs
• Our thoughts on the various award finalists
• The "rule changes" the NBA has had in regards to fouls
• The WNBA!
• Some thoughts on the FIDE Chess Candidates tournament

• The family Dynamics that make the front office both good and bad at stuff.
• How awesome Austin Reeves is.

• Liz Cambage
  Ian Nepomniachtchi
• Chris Yeh and Scott Johnson for their episodes on the Chris Yeh Podcast. A must for investors! (chrisyeh.com/podcast)

We're back to talk the sixteen trades that happened between February 4th 2022 and February 10th (the trade deadline!) Somehow we do it in less than two hours!

Full list of trades here - https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32965050/nba-trade-tracker-grades-details-every-deal-2021-22-season

Some highlights:
Tyrese Haliburton was a great pickup by the Pacers.

The Nets absolutely crushed their deal, but Daryl Morey may very well have won in his goal.

We laugh at the Wizards and give Montrezl Harrel this year's Kenneth Faried award (at least he's the front runner)

Shout out to Hikaru Nakamura for advancing in the FIDE Grand Prix in exciting fashion yesterday!

Dre and Brian are back to talk:
Some random NBA including the Nuggets, the Jazz, and the 76ers.

A lot of NFL including Tom Brady's retired, Brian Flores' coach hiring problems, and who will win the Super Bowl!

Tune in.

Short episode this week! Dre read's his piece on David Ortiz and the Hall of Fame (https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/why-the-baseball-hall-of-fame-is)

Also, extra content! Dre's thoughts on the Naismith Hall of Fame compared to Cooperstown. Issues with Hall of Fame and player evaluations in general.

Also is Andrew Wiggins a star, and what the Warriors say about the myth of meritocracy!

Shout out to Pete Croatto for his perfect encapsulation of the NBA All-Star game - https://twitter.com/PeteCroatto/status/1487067158467293185

We're back to talk:

• DeMar DeRozan and BS Game Winners
• Russell Westbrook and the silliness of "Posterizing"
• The State of the Golden State Warriors
• The Denver Nuggets deckchair trade.

Shoutout to Cristian Ramirez (@FanboyCristian) for his Game of Thrones rewatch takes.

Dave Berri returns for office hours! We talk about 2004's Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver, particularly chapter 19: "The Problem with Scorers." Particularly we go over the issue with the concept of Skill Curves, as well as dive into some of the drama of the early 2000s NBA Analytics Community.

Ben Guest, who has been helping Scott Williams -- who played on the 1991-1994 Bulls, returns to discuss an age-old topic. We also get under the hood on the Wins Produced metric and how to analyze metrics.

Ben Guest is back to discuss his podcast series on Mindful Coaching as well as some good takes on Rick Carlisle and Ben Simmons. Good news this is part 1 of 2! Ben will return next week to talk Scottie Pippen versus Michael Jordan!

We talk:

Steph Curry breaking the all-time three-point record, and why that won't stand for too long.

A lot about the Warriors' offense and how good Draymond Green is.

Issues with Rick Carlisle, coaching, the Mavericks, and "Analytic Success" stories in the NBA.

A brief farewell to the Nuggets title window.

A lot about how great Magnus Carlsen is and how bad the World Chess Championship structure is.

Shoutouts:

Check out "Old Smith/New Smith" on the Gamefully Unemployed Network - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/old-smith-new-smith-mallrats-yoga-hosers-part-01/id1345692836?i=1000544656042.

Check out Ben Guest's Newsletter, particularly his recent podcasts on mindful coaching. https://benbo.substack.com/

Topics:

• Aaron Rodgers
• The Contending Warriors
• Nikola Jokic and the Markieff Morris Fight
• Scottie Pippen and MJ
• Is DeMar DeRozan overpaid?
• Rookies!

Longer version:

Some of the silliness of Aaron Rodgers' vaccine controversy and why the data says the fans won't care.

Things like NFTs are nothing new. Case in point, the Packers have sold worthless shares in the team for years. One of the hosts is now one of them!

The Warriors are good now? Really, we're only worried about Jordan Poole. The hosts are split on how to feel about Kuminga.

The Markieff Morris/Nikola Jokic fight.

Scottie Pippen's contribution to Michael Jordan's legacy.

DeMar DeRozan's current performance, and why the Bulls are so good. We actually agree DeRozan is underpaid but the "secret sauce" is Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Artūras Karnišovas for Executive of the Year!

A little talk about the Rookie of the Year "race" and why it's maybe a little early to be this hyped on Evan Mobley.

Shoutouts:

Tonthadon was in twitch.tv/nerdnumbers live and shouted us out. Thanks!

Great quote from JP on leaving money on the table for rings: https://twitter.com/jay_pea619/status/1450848329911312384

We're back to talk:

• Super Tuesday!
• Can the Warriors win with the Rookie of the Year?
• Gotta keep up the Victor Wembenyama love!
• A fun stroll down memory lane and why the blogging analytics movement fractured, crashed, and burned, but why analytics still won.
• Tune in!

First, you can purchase Ben's book at Amazon here - https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Art-Coaching-Basketball-Namibian-ebook/dp/B09KL7P5BP

Ben discusses an amazing journey where he coached a high school squad in Namibia and somehow turned them into a pro team that had the biggest upset run in KBA playoff history.

Make sure to follow Ben's newsletter and podcast at benbo.substack.com, and follow Ben on Twitter @bguest. Also tune in, or check out Boxscore Geeks -- https://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-boxscore-geeks-show-zen-and-the-art-of-coaching-basketball -- for a fun contest around the book launch. 

Holy cow, we have returned! Good news everyone, numbers are live at boxscoregeeks.com!

We talk:

• More Ben Simmons contract drama.
• Dre's substack piece on Bill Walton and the NBA's 75th Anniversary team.
• The Golden State Warriors. Yes, they're good, but is it a mirage?
• Some "Small Sample Size Theater" including former Warriors forwards and the giant Cleveland Cavaliers.

Chris Yeh (chrisyeh.com), the ultimate Lakers fan returns to talk, what else? The Lakers!

We talk about how the 2022 Lakers might be in good shape, with an assist from a Jeremy Britton prototype.

We talk about how the 2004 Lakers "woes" are a myth.

We briefly talk about the Warriors and why Ben Simmons would be a steal.

Finally, we catch up on the first few episodes of Ted Lasso season 2, with a shout-out to LassoCon, which Chris helped put together.

Tune in!

• TLDR:
  The NBA Draft and bad decision-making.
• Oscar Robertson and the NBA's history of labor negotiations.
• David Berri's time at Forbes.
• Stephon Marbury is a First-Ballot Hall of Famer!

Welcome to Office Hours with Professor David Berri. A podcast where David Berri stops by to discuss his research and writing and writing on sports. Today Dave hops on to talk about the NBA Draft, in particular, an update to an old study, and why he’s not optimistic about his Detroit Pistons in the 2021 draft. We also talk about Oscar Robertson and his fight for players' rights in the 70s. We review Dave’s time at Forbes, where he wrote almost 100 articles, and why it ended on rocky terms thanks to the NBA. One of my favorite thesis of this is episode is how we discuss Television’s impact on the “analytics movement.” And somehow Dave even manages to end on noting that Stephon Marbury absolutely belongs in the Naismith Hall of Fame first ballot, namely for his time in China!

I want to shout out some of the research mentioned on today’s show:

We discuss the NBA draft, specifically: The fifty-fifth Reading Online Sport Economics Seminar (ROSES) by Dave Berri of the Southern Utah University, presenting “Stereotypes and Hiring Decisions: Lessons from the NBA Draft”, put on by James Reade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIJFjqYdQFs

This is based on research that appeared in Stumbling on Wins from David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and with help from Stephen Walters. Erica Hanserd helped by adding High School Ratings to make the research even more verbose!

We mention the senior paper from Greyson Hulet, a Southern Utah University student. It looks at the age curve by position! A topic I’m sure we’ll revisit in Greyson puts his paper online.

We talk about research from Jason Dana, which I first heard on Dan Ariely’s “Arming the Donkeys” podcast. The paper I believe they discuss is “Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion”

We specifically talk about Dave’s paper: Oscar Robertson, Antitrust, and the Fight Against Monopsony Power in the NBA

One correct - at one point I say in 53 of Michael Jordan’s playoff games, 44% were above average. Apologies, I meant 44 games, total which is a little over 80%!

Outro Music is Pure Magic by Chris Haugen