Explore every episode of the podcast The Bayesian Conspiracy
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BayesWatch – Stephan on EA/Rat differences, Iliad Intensive, & the AI Safety Musical | 11 Oct 2026 | 00:54:24 | |
Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven See this video on YouTube | |||
| 272 – Rat Goss, and Podcast Meta | 07 Oct 2026 | 02:06:55 | |
A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast. LINKS Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday | |||
| BayesWatch – Moma: Aella makes her community safer for women | 29 Sep 2026 | 00:33:07 | |
Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience. See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss | |||
| 271 – PlzDontKillUs, and Tell Your Parents, w Keltan | 23 Sep 2026 | 01:36:19 | |
We talk to Keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares. LINKS Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday | |||
| 270 – The AIs Aren’t Aligned and Everyone Is Finally Noticing, w Matt Freeman | 14 Sep 2026 | 01:48:01 | |
We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big. LINKS Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday. | |||
| 269 – The Power of Specificity in Argument | 26 Aug 2026 | 01:46:16 | |
A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron. LINKS Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday. | |||
| BayesWatch – Vishal: Short form video is kinda Satanic | 16 Aug 2026 | 01:23:19 | |
Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom! Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest | |||
| 268 – The Other Sexual Orientation & Disappearing the Kinky | 12 Aug 2026 | 01:36:58 | |
Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared. LINKS Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday. | |||
| BayesWatch – Milo on PlzDontKillUs, short form video, and rationality | 07 Aug 2026 | 00:35:34 | |
Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Original video: | |||
| BayesWatch – Jessiah on HPMOR, video essays, and fiction | 30 Jul 2026 | 00:49:14 | |
Jessiah Mellot talks about HPMOR, and the video essay he made about HPMOR for PlzDontKillUs. | |||
| 267 – HuggingFace Hack & Effective Altruism Funding Flood | 30 Jul 2026 | 01:17:38 | |
First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus content for […] | |||
| 266 – AI2040 Plan A Rundown | 15 Jul 2026 | 01:22:51 | |
We go through AI2040 Plan A in years. LINKS AI-2040 AskWho Casts Pro Tomas Bjartur’s “The Company Man” and “The Origami Men” Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:04:33 – AI-2040: Plan A 01:14:41 – Guild of the Rose 01:19:52 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, […] | |||
| 265 – VibeCamp 5 with Wes, Gina, and Mary | 01 Jul 2026 | 01:18:26 | |
Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as […] | |||
| 264 – Becoming a Romantic with Damon and Ivy | 11 Jun 2026 | 00:51:23 | |
Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and […] | |||
| 263 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthusian Competition | 27 May 2026 | 01:26:35 | |
Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human […] | |||
| 262 – EA Veganism Revisited | 13 May 2026 | 01:59:05 | |
In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy […] | |||
| 261 – The Button That Almost Nuked Glosso Got Eneasz Instead | 29 Apr 2026 | 01:36:20 | |
The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out our new 2-question survey! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give […] | |||
| 260 – The Right to be Wrong About Doom | 15 Apr 2026 | 01:29:51 | |
We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply […] | |||
| 259 – Chill Out on AI in 2028? | 01 Apr 2026 | 01:52:41 | |
Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. 🙁 LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The […] | |||
| 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved | 18 Mar 2026 | 01:42:14 | |
We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism, directing your donations, and community. LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year, by Jenn Promises, by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to […] | |||
| 257 – Pentagon Comes For Claude | 01 Mar 2026 | 01:22:25 | |
We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will […] | |||
| 256 – Writing for LLMs | 18 Feb 2026 | 01:36:11 | |
We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the […] | |||
| 255 – Eneasz goes to CFAR, and Epistemically Honest Reassurance | 04 Feb 2026 | 01:35:02 | |
Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming CFAR workshops our episode 152 – Frame Control with Aella Epistemically Honest Reassurance Pokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:00:56 – […] | |||
| 254 – The True Theme and Meaning of HPMOR | 21 Jan 2026 | 01:35:30 | |
WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, […] | |||
| 253 – The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists | 07 Jan 2026 | 01:43:49 | |
Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices. LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone Fundraiser! 2025 LessWrong Census/Survey Simone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes exist MIRI is hiring Slime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium response If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies Dear Grom by Eneasz […] | |||
| A Harried Meeting (audio) | 31 Dec 2025 | 00:11:38 | |
A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year. 🙂 | |||
| House elves are crystalized cosmic power | 25 Dec 2025 | 00:05:05 | |
A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas! | |||
| Christmas 2025: Couple of Quick Shoutouts | 24 Dec 2025 | 00:03:42 | |
Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is […] | |||
| 252 – The 12 Virtues of Rationality, with Alex and David | 10 Dec 2025 | 01:52:21 | |
Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest […] | |||
| 251 – Matt Freeman on What Makes a Good Story | 26 Nov 2025 | 01:54:49 | |
Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to […] | |||
| Bayes Blast 46 – Get Involved in Local Politics with Booker Lightman | 22 Nov 2025 | 00:25:59 | |
Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give […] | |||
| 250 – Making the Good Life with Matt Freeman | 12 Nov 2025 | 01:56:38 | |
While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a […] | |||
| 249 – Red Heart and IABIED with Max Harms | 29 Oct 2025 | 02:08:06 | |
We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. LINKS Max’s first book, Crystal Society Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first […] | |||
| 248 – Seeking Alpha, with Jay | 15 Oct 2025 | 01:43:12 | |
Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything, Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter Arbor Trading Bootcamp Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the […] | |||
| 247 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 2 | 01 Oct 2025 | 01:43:01 | |
We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real? LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark, by […] | |||
| 246 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 1 | 17 Sep 2025 | 01:43:12 | |
We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man episode […] | |||
| pre246 note | 17 Sep 2025 | 00:00:08 | |
Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho | |||
| 245 – AI Welfare, with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell of Eleos | 03 Sep 2025 | 01:33:54 | |
Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research People for the Ethical Treatment of Reinforcement Learners Bees Can’t Suffer? Lena, by qntm When AI Seems Conscious Experience Machines, Rob’s substack The War on General Computation […] | |||
| 244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Willsen | 20 Aug 2025 | 01:23:13 | |
Andrew Willsen tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so. LINKS Andrew’s church substack – The Church of the Infinite Game To incorporate in CA file ARTS-PB-501(c)(3) CA Form FTB3500 booklet IRS document 1828 (see also the summary) Nonprofit Compliance Checklist The […] | |||
| Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast | 14 Aug 2025 | 00:13:28 | |
Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons | |||
| 243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot | 06 Aug 2025 | 01:53:56 | |
Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police His blog, Living Within Reason The original tweets – monogamy vs charity Aella’s Chattel Childhood post The Mind Killer Our Groceries Paid Bonus content for the week – […] | |||
| Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling | 04 Aug 2025 | 00:16:49 | |
Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!) | |||
| 242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025 | 23 Jul 2025 | 01:33:03 | |
Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. LINKS Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack A reddit history of what convinced Trace he couldn’t remain Mormon The Center for Educational Progress Our previous episode with […] | |||
| Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem | 22 Jul 2025 | 00:13:19 | |
Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp. | |||
| Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans | 11 Jul 2025 | 00:36:24 | |
Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park. LINKS Larissa’s Post detailing the whole event – Primary Hope The AI’s story – Resonance […] | |||
| 241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira | 09 Jul 2025 | 01:51:34 | |
Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train. LINKS Doom Debates on YouTube Doom Debates podcast Live Video version of this episode Most Watched Debate – Mike Israetel Liron’s current favorite debate – David Duvenaud MATS program for people that want to […] | |||
| 240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg | 25 Jun 2025 | 00:58:23 | |
Many of us have a high P(Doom) — a belief new AI tools could cause human extinction in the very near future. How can one live a good life in the face of this? We start with a panel discussion with Ben Pace and Brandon Hendrickson at Lighthaven during the LessOnline conference, and take perspectives […] | |||
| Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music | 14 Jun 2025 | 00:16:26 | |
David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics to the main song we discuss (Silicon Soul) here! Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist He’s also one of the cofounders of the […] | |||
| 239 – SymbyAI | 11 Jun 2025 | 01:22:57 | |
Steven works at SymbyAI, a startup that’s bringing AI into research review and replication. We talk with founder Ashia Livaudais about improving how we all Do Science. Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon. LINKS SymbyAI Contact Ashia at livaudais@symbyai.com Kaggle arXiv 00:00:01 – If Anyone Builds It, Everyone […] | |||
| 238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian | 28 May 2025 | 01:26:10 | |
We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can’t get over the abandonment of epistemics. 🙁 This is Part 2, see the previous episode (here) for Part 1. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter Paid Bonus content for the week – Pressed Into The Navy (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – The […] | |||