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Explore every episode of the podcast The ACID Capitalist Podcast

Dive into the complete episode list for The ACID Capitalist Podcast . Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Is the Market Running Out of Money?06 Nov 202501:21:20

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What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the form of sharp pullbacks.

We dig into why professionals rarely short meme‑charged leaders like Palantir even when valuations look unhinged, and how the “malicious” habit of strong markets is to snap back toward the one‑year moving average before pushing higher. Along the way, we revisit the Supreme Court’s tariff signals, the politics of New York’s vote, and the way those headlines filter into liquidity creation via trade flows. On jobs, we unpack an ADP beat that hides softness in information and professional services while healthcare and utilities carry the print, and we talk frankly about how AI threatens a quarter of tasks, particularly in admin and legal support.

Finally, we ask a contrarian question: is Apple right to avoid an AI capex arms race? Preserving balance sheet flexibility might be the smarter bet if we’re edging toward a collateral recession where financing gets stingier and optionality becomes a moat. Expect volatility, not apocalypse; respect the cadence of liquidity; and plan for violent, normal pullbacks within long trends. If this perspective challenges how you track markets, follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review. What’s your top stress indicator right now?

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A One-in-a-Thousand Market Moment04 Nov 202501:16:52

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When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic.

Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why. 

Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’s CarMax hedge to the intricacies of dating, calculating sexual market value and the Fed’s confused dance with Treasury policy, Hugh dissects how a “Z-score of 3” moment becomes a one-in-a-thousand event that reshapes portfolios.

He links collapsing used-car stocks to compressed thirty year immigration trends, digs into the stealth recession in U.S. housing, and considers how risk managers unknowingly amplify panic by reducing exposure. Along the way he spotlights Martin Marietta, BioNTech’s AI ambitions, and why the next big opportunity may lie inside America’s housing-linked equities.

This is a raw, late-night macro sermon from St Barts: part reflection, part market therapy. Traders and macro mavens will find insight in Hugh’s irreverent exploration of fear, liquidity, and conviction.

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Acid Breath: Any Fool Could Make Money in Gold18 Oct 202501:05:35

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Any Fool Could Make Money in Gold

But Only a Lunatic Could Explain It Like This

The lights flicker but they don't go out.

Today I tracked the silence. No CPI, no jobs print, no retail sales. The government is shut. The market is not. What moved was subtle. What didn’t move, the real story.

Treasury yields dipped below 4 percent momentarily. Safety or something stranger? Bank stocks cracked again. Zions and KeyCorp lit the fuse with rising provisions and sour auto and credit card loans. That wasn't just a repeat of 2023. This feels like the credit cycle got squeezed. A demographic surge hit too fast. Fifty years of migration change compressed into one. The models never caught up. Now they're breaking.

Steve Miran, the Fed’s newest voice, kept it cool. No surprise. But that calm tone is the tell. He knows the maps are wrong. They're flying with a faulty speedometer, in a world shifting too fast.

Gold hit $4,300. Not from inflation. From doubt. I revisited the Sinclair thesis. A flawed but compelling idea. What if gold is just a mirror for broken trust? 

Bitcoin’s thesis is also resurfacing. Ten trillion isn’t far off if even a sliver of cash or pensions tip in.

That’s where I leave it. No script. No forecast. Just recognition.

Listen now and subscribe to ACID BREATH because when the official data disappears, the distortions are the data.

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Three Bowmen of the Apocalypse01 Oct 202200:47:25

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Cem Karsan's breadth and depth of knowledge has the Acid Capitalist reaching for the Ashwagandha! 

NOTE: Apologies for the audio quality. We are trying!  

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I believe, I believe?23 Sep 202201:02:43

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Saving retail investors one podcast at at time...all I can ask is that you stick with us till the end on this one...

NOTE:  We've sped up our guest’s audio. You'll understand why when you listen. 

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Hendry Goes to China: the Great GDP Swindle 17 Sep 202200:10:00

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Hendry Goes to China: the Great GDP Swindle 

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Ghost in the Machine (Remix)10 Sep 202200:19:48

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Welcome to a special episode of the Acid Capitalist --  ghost in the machine. This week we have an interview with an institutional trader on Wall Street who focuses on exotic derivatives and volatility. After the interview was over the guest's firm threatened legal action and tried to stop this episode from airing. The guest and firm will remain anonymous. Listen and judge for yourself why they tried to stop us. I suggest the guest and firm panic. The tribe of Acid Capitalism will not be stopped. Enjoy.

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Voodoo Lounge with Jared Dillian02 Sep 202201:31:02

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Join the Alchemist and Hugh as they enter the voodoo lounge with with Jared Dillian... 

*HATS NOW FOR SALE* www.acidcap.com

Hugh Hendry
YouTube: Hugh Hendry Official
Twitter: @hendry_hugh
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Substack:  hughhendry.substack.com
Hats: www.acidcap.com


00:00:00 - Leaving summer behind 
00:03:00 - Dirt nap
00:12:40 - Mistakes were made
00:19:30 - Getting sentimental 
00:25:50 - Theory of a**holes 
00:42:44 - Sucked out of the mainframe 
00:46:45 - Propaganda Machine
00:59:20 - Uranium tourists
01:07:00 - The most compelling trades...
01:12:24 - Cannabis is the next bitcoin?
01:20:00 - DJ Stochastic 

Support the show

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Arrogance And Conceit of BTPs with Russell Clark26 Aug 202201:23:12

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Rampaging Russ AKA Russell Clark, is back for round two! 

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Hugh Hendry
YouTube: Hugh Hendry Official
Twitter: @hendry_hugh
Instagram:  @hughhendryofficial
Substack:  hughhendry.substack.com
Hats: www.acidcap.com

00:00:00 - Fetching and sexy
00:02:20 - Melt our minds... 
00:20:00 - Whatever it takes!  
00:26:30 - The world has changed 
00:28:00 - Playing politics 
00:29:00 - Adam Smith and beavers
00:35:30 - The great vol machine 
00:41:18 - Asset rich, cash poor  
00:44:30 - The Texas Hustle 
01:04:00 - Bloomberg and other scams 
01:07:00 - RIP 
01:11:00 - Tail to my fox 
01:15:00 - Melt away! 

Support the show

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Central Banking Isn't Working featuring Prof. Blanchflower19 Aug 202200:55:57

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Prof. Blanchflower joins Hugh and the Alchemist for a no-holds-barred discussion on the folly of group think and failure of central banks.

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Twitter: @hendry_hugh
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Hats: www.acidcap.com


00:00:00 - The PM rang me up
00:00:45 - Danny, "Champion of the World"
00:02:10 - Group think
00:04:40 - Silent depression
00:11:40 - Fool me once...
00:22:30 - How did I get here?
00:27:00 - The den of conformity
00:30:00 - The thing that really worries me
00:32:10 - No penalty for being wrong!
00:36:14 - Yanis
00:41:00 - What's the answer?
00:43:19 - Desert Island Discs with Mervyn King
00:50:20 - A world we don't understand
00:51:20 - I recommend the BBC panic
00:52:29 - www.acidcap.com

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Cowboys and Pirates with Javier Blas12 Aug 202201:08:29

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Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) joins the gang to talk commodities, Indiana Jones, pirates and cowboys. Hugh mulls a run for President of Libya; and the Alchemist discusses Hugh's death defying journey through Zimbabwe! Please rate 5-stars, comment and subscribe on Apple Podcasts.

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Hugh Hendry
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Twitter: @hendry_hugh
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Hats: https://pixel-gallery.co.uk/collections/acid-capitalist-trucker-hats

Support the show

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Crude Talk with @ChiGrl aka Tracy Shuchart 05 Aug 202201:28:06

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 @ChiGrl aka Tracy Shuchart is on this week's episode to discuss all things oil!

**HATS NOW FOR SALE**

**NEW: www.hughhendry.substack.com**

Don't forget to rate, share and comment on Apple Podcasts.

Hugh Hendry
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@ChiGrl aka Tracy Shuchart
Twitter: https://twitter.com/chigrl

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Part II: Halfway up the River with Ben Hunt29 Jul 202200:58:50

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Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory is back for part II of our journey. Tune in, drop out and hold on tight as we enter the heart of darkness...

**NEW: www.hughhendry.substack.com**

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Hugh Hendry
YouTube: Hugh Hendry Official
Twitter: @hendry_hugh
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Ben Hunt
Twitter: @EpsilonTheory
Website: epsilontheory.com 

***
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Acid Breath. Inside the Macro Storm: Fed Policy, TSMC Earnings, and the Next Credit Crunch17 Oct 202500:45:05

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There’s a smell in the air, that faint electric tang before a storm. The markets are choppy, the screens green and red in alternating flickers, and behind it all you can almost hear the static of something old returning.

In this episode of Acid Breath, I drive straight through the fog. The Philadelphia Fed survey just recorded its steepest drop since 2020; the factory heartbeat of America skipping hard. Across the Pacific, Taiwan Semiconductor printed perfection: record profits, guidance raised again, AI demand still climbing precipitously fast. Two worlds, one slowing, one racing ahead.

And under it all, the same hum: leverage. I talk about the sub-prime echoes in auto credit and the quiet bankruptcies and American neighbourhoods with no lights on. It’s a signal. Then I go back in time to 2007 and recount a period when the whispers first started and nobody listened. 

It’s a long, cinematic ride through shutdown politics, manufacturing uncertainty, silicon glory, and the strange beauty of markets pretending to be calm. Think late-night jazz, not CNBC.

If this episode makes you think, or even makes you uneasy, that’s the point. Give it a five-star rating, share it with a friend who still believes in “soft landings,” and help this show keep cutting through the noise. The more you amplify it, the further we can push the conversation away from headlines and back toward truth.

Because markets may forget but memory still compounds.

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Halfway up the River with Ben Hunt22 Jul 202201:04:11

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Join Hugh Hendry and Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) for a cerebral journey halfway up the river of your mind. Colonel Kurtz and villagers await you on a macro expedition like no other! 

Don't forget to rate, share and comment on Apple Podcasts.

Hugh Hendry
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Twitter: @hendry_hugh
Instagram:  @hughhendryofficial

Ben Hunt
Twitter: @EpsilonTheory
Website: epsilontheory.com 

***
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Asian Tigers with Russell Clark15 Jul 202201:03:31

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The Acid Capitalist and the Alchemist reunited and ready for a magic mystery tour of Asia with special guest Russell Clark

***

Russell Clark on Substack https://www.russell-clark.com

Russell Clark on Twitter https://twitter.com/rampagingruss


***

Leave a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts! 

Like and subscribe to Hugh's channel on YouTube

Follow Hugh on Twitter

Follow Hugh on Instagram

***

REMINDER: Want to be notified about limited edition hats before they go on sale? Rate, review and comment on Apple Podcasts and send a screenshot to info [at] upsonpartners [dot com] -- the first 100 commentators will get on the list!

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👏 BONUS 👏 EDITION: 👏 Featuring Tom Roderick 👏👏👏12 Jul 202201:17:16

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Jump on the bucking bronco🐎 with a special 👏bonus edition👏 of the Acid Capitalist Podcast, featuring the one and only Tom Roderick (@ToStRo)!

Don't forget to rate, share and comment on Apple Podcasts.

Follow Hugh on Twitter  @hendry_hugh

Like and subscribe on YouTube at Hugh Hendry Official

***
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UFOs, Bitcoin, & the End of the World w/ Matthew Pines 08 Jul 202201:34:54

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Jason Bourne aka Matthew Pines joins the Acid Capitalist for a deep dive on tail risk. Let the war games begin. Don't forget to rate, review, comment, and share on Apple Podcasts... the hats are coming people!

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Psychedelic Therapy with Denise Shull01 Jul 202200:57:35

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The Acid Capitalist podcast | Psychedelic Therapy

Do you watch @SHO_Billions? If so, you’re going to love this week’s episode of the Acid Capitalist podcast. Listen here now: 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcasts/id1511187978?i=1000568464181

CC @DeniseKShull

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The Week That Commodities Confirmed the Worst25 Jun 202200:56:32

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Another live performance reflecting on tribal questions and the precipitous decline in commodity prices one week after the Fed's latest interest rate hike.

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CARL ICAHN'S IDIOT BUTTON17 Jun 202200:51:10

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I hate Fridays.This week we had a bantam weight world title decider between the contrarian and the populist. The Acid Capitalist squares up against Dylan Grice. Dylan spent years as a macro advisor tussling with the world's best hedge fund minds. He's worth a listen although the passing years haven't been kind. Still he's coining it in 😘

He takes us through his fund of fund allocations which have paid off this year. We go way back to discover revelations from his earlier career; just what was the payroll number? Schwager interviewed macro talents who could dream the number, Dylan wasn't bothered...

Everyone has a 2008 story. @dylangrice worked for disgraced Ponzi hedge fund manager Bernie Madoff ! An impressionable Dylan thought they rivalled Buffet in the liquidity stakes that fateful winter, little did he realise that he was part of a giant money laundering scheme.

Later @dylangrice was invited to pay his respects at the Manhattan palace of the great Carl Icahn. He regales us with the wonders of what he found there. If Steinhardt kept a gun in his drawer, Carl was more a hammer type guy. A young Dylan feared his seat was rigged to eject

#hedgefunds #macro #economics #trading #deflation

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HUMPTY DUMPTY MACRO10 Jun 202201:23:23

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Another live edition. Humpty Dumpty? Remember the children's poem.  With all the king's horses and all the king's men. They couldn't put Humpty together again...Are we closing the chapter that saw asset prices surge post the great financial crisis? Inflation or deflation? Which crisis seems more likely to the shroomers? The church debates.

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Hurricane MACRO02 Jun 202201:27:10

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We're joined by the Macro Compass writer, Alfonso Peccatiello, former bank prop trader, to discuss all things macro in the wake of JP Morgan's chief, Jamie Dimon, issuing a hurricane warning - bad things are coming. 

We examine the meteorological  landscape.

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Banned in China27 May 202201:28:04

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The Acid Capitalism show went live this week. The Alchemist's hair morphed into a flock of seagulls. The Acid Capitalist levitated above the week's noise. He's a plastic thief with no belief in what he steals. A shirtless Good Kid B.a.a.d City holds it together. The Capitalist raps, 'The American Queen, she be smoking Prozac, The Totalitarians, they be smoking Napalm.' Macro thoughts from a bunker on a ting rock on a sea of oblivion. The church is open for prayers

#chinanews #economics #trading #tradingstrategy #apocalypse 

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Acid Breath: The Bank of the Sopranos & Unlocking Gresham's Law16 Oct 202500:45:36

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ARM Ascends, Oil Drifts, Queens Endures

I open on macro static and shutdown fog, a strange steadiness where the market beat goes on. The Beige Book whispers fractures, three Fed districts up, five flat, four softening, a recalibration more than a roar. 

The feature turns to ARM, where the data center bottleneck is power, not code. ARM sells the blueprint, cutting CPU energy use perhaps by half, and the live question is simple: can it win 50 percent of data center CPUs. 

Then energy’s riddle: oil sits near $56, where it was in 2005, with about 1.5 trillion barrels of proven reserves setting the rough scale. 

I close with Queens County, a Tony Soprano thrift that became my acid test and first great trade, the name fades, but the fuse remains.

If this hit the mark, tap 5  🅂🅃🄰🅁, share the show with one friend who thinks in megawatts, and drop your one question for tomorrow's episode. Your questions shape the map.

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There Will Be Blood20 May 202201:33:53

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There will be blood. Let’s discuss. The Acid Capitalist continues to fume about injustices. He has the Fed and the mercantilistes in his sights. First the global economy has failed to regain its previous trajectory of greater prosperity ever since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. GDP is lost somewhere over the Atlantic, destination unknown. The economy has recovered for sure but its no way near the level that a rational investor at the turn of the century might reasonably have expected. The shortfall at the global level might be more than $20 trillion. It’s absence froments social anger. There will be blood.


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Buck Broke Bitcoin14 May 202201:08:50

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Bloody hell. So much for stable coins. Fight it out in the comments; does anything matter anymore if the crypto well has been poisoned by lies and malfeasance? The Acid Capitalist saw a debate on twitter about whether he was a misunderstood genius or a pretentious riddler. Neither, he's a fool in a foolish world.

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Money Too Tight To Mention07 May 202201:24:39

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The Alchemist explores the mysteries of hedge fund management further. This week's deep dive sees him wearing a suit! Can he cut it? The Acid Capitalist had a rough night but he's taken a magic pill to restore his superpowers and he eventually finds his mojo. This week we review central bank rate hikes. Surely, its the end, not the beginning? Private providers of credit have been raising rates since the summer of 2020. The US economy contracted last quarter. Official economic data is heavily revised in later years. Did the British economy relapse into recession last year? Just why are they insistent on more rate hikes? The Acid Capitalist is afraid, very afraid that equity markets might need to reverse all of their post covid glory.


But rather than accentuate the negative, he wants to offer guidelines and solutions. He believes that they should plead a mea culpa, their primary responsibility rests with preserving asset prices. Only by revealing that they're essentially custodian officers charged with preserving the collateral that underpins the huge debt mountain will we move forward. Better yet, they should move to enfranchise those citizens that have no assets. They should create a sovereign wealth fund. QE has only prolonged the depression. Better to impose a withholding tax on mercantilist nations that choose to park their trade bounty in treasury markets. These countries forsake endogenous domestic growth in favour of chasing exports. They perceive this as a more robust economic plan. But the world of international trade is the business of robbing Peter to pay Paul.


To enact their cunning strategy,  global savings must rise. In China, savings rise because their currency is set too low, preserving a comparative trade advantage that market capitalism would otherwise bid away. Without their state interventions their currency would rise to bring the world  into balance. Chinese households' incomes would reset higher and they might reasonably consume more. This does not happen. Instead savings rise; the share of consumption to gdp is remarkably low for such an advanced state.


The same  applies elsewhere. With their comparative advantage, their lower relative manufacturing costs, secured by their "cheap" currency, they bleed jobs and income security from western households. You might lose your job but you still have non discretionary commitments to make; mostly these are energy and food related, credit cards must be tapped to prevent hunger and freezing. This dictates that western savings ratios decline, and more and more debt is necessary to restore equilibrium. The cycle amplifies itself in favour of the mercantilist.


Whilst the Acid Capitalist's ire is presently directed at the central bankers, he recognises that the primary fault lies with the mercantilists. And so he proposes that western finance ministries  adopt a withholding tax. Think of it as an economic rent imposed on those who choose to game the economic system. Left unchecked, and it has been for way too long, we've created an extraordinary volatility machine that leaves today's risk markets in maximum jeopardy.


That's why the withholding tax ticks all the right boxes; it is vital not to throw grit into the global trading system. Global trade, if conducted properly, enriches all of us; but left in this perilous state it resembles the longest suicide note ever written. Charge them 3%. They wont balk; they'll gladly pay it. Nothing is too expensive in order to preserve the longevity of the Chinese Communist Party. Collectively, other nations own around $10 trillion of US Treasuries. A tax would raise $300 billion a year and it could underwrite a sovereign wealth fund that effectively underwrote the downside risks in equities and other risk assets.  

...continued on twitter @hendry_hugh

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The Precipe, Markets on the Brink30 Apr 202201:24:01

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This week's episode is probably the most profoundly ridiculous exercise in hyperbole ever attempted. The boys are sensing a regime shift. Volatility is like a prolonged period of high pressure in the atmosphere. Hedge fund types gunned it for all it was worth. Leverage, concentrated portfolios, lies and misdemeanours, they raked up huge profits and made themselves into billionaires many times over. 
But the times, they are a changing. Risk-less businesses are been revealed as risky. One by one, these feted masters of the universe are coming unstuck. We discuss. 
But we end on a deep dive into the theory of money. With US GDP contracting just as the Fed has committed itself to an aggressive hiking sequence of higher rates, we examine why they always seem so blind to events in the real world. Hiking during a depression has never worked. 
We've had four such calamities: 1830-1900, 1873 to 1900, 1930 to the onset of WWII and ever since 2008. They all ended with innovations: the railroads and the discovery of Californian gold, the chemical revolution of leaching that opened up the enormous S African gold supply and the mass adoption of telephony that facilitated  correspondent and then eurodollar banking.
At each turn, the free world attempted to rid itself of tyranny. First we removed monarchs and kleptocracies from their nasty habit of specie clipping, then we successively removed governments from money printing. One hundred years since the introduction of the land line, does bitcoin offer the prospect of removing the banks from money? It's a tantalising prospect and it goes far to explain why the Feds are hopeless with money and hence the economy. Truth be told, they're no longer active in the domain of money creation.

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Risk Markets set to Self Destruct 23 Apr 202201:17:44

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The alchemist doesn't speak, he yells; he's a proclaimer seeking the truth. Hear ye, hear ye, he bellows, the apocalypse is coming. Fear, greed, loathing, they're all set to knock the financial world off its perch once again.
The Acid Capitalist has seen it all before. A block of digital energy, he's vibrating wildly in his bunker and taking down all that antagonises him; poison pills, suave, beige, star hedge fund managers, Netflix, those that purport to save the planet by banning hydrocarbon extraction. This week he's uncut, unkempt, unruly, and channelling a higher frequency. This is financial improvisation at its most unexpected. Wannabe hedge fund stars stay tuned.

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The God Trade15 Apr 202200:40:39

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The Reverence Episode. The Alchemist @writes_sweeney finds himself exalting at the triple religious whammy of Easter, Passover and Ramadan. But it's Franz Kafka that holds sway. The messiah will come only when he is no longer necessary; he will come only on the day after his arrival. The  Acid Capitalist  proclaims that the mysticism demanded to see the future for risk assets demands that you listen to those pursuing deviant pathways. He offers up his wooly hat as evidence...reject the front pages, listen to the Church of Acid Capitalism.
The editing this week has been excessive, "buts", "umms", " "halting silences", they've all been eliminated. The result being that the boys sound as though they've dropped some speed. Have no fear, wisdom awaits the patient. 
First on the block, the recurring message that society's fear for the planet has left the hydrocarbon complex under-valued, priced for imminent death and yet the impervious Saudi dollar peg sits unchallenged. Acid wisdom states that when the lego bricks don't fit, you have a  giant trading opportunity. 
Where have all the dollars gone? A common refrain at cyclical turning points. Stocks are down, government bond prices have been massacred, just where are those dollars? The Capitalist reveals the perils of turning points. That when dollar assets are destroyed, dollar liabilities remain forever, setting off a mighty stampede to deleverage. The Fed's greatest nightmare. 
In the 1920s the credit system was predicated on gold, by contrast it is dollar collateral that feeds today's eurodollar credit system. Gold scarcity, and the demands placed on society to cover gold deficits in the 1920s, caused the global economy to crash spectacularly in the 1930s. Could the same thing be playing out again with the dollar? Will the touch  point be a renminbi devaluation? Ruminations and distant rumblings are laid bare. 
The Alchemist has discovered Libya. Has he dropped some acid? The Capitalist adopts the Ringo Star note of diffidence when pressured to film the Let it Be album there. But in a world constantly changing, in a world where the giant Australian superannuation funds are suddenly pouring money into UK public sector assets, who is really the mad one.? "If I was responsible for $300 bn in pension assets, why not commit a cumulative $15bn over 30 years investing there? I would write it off each year (15 basis points) but in 50 to 100 years it might look very differently - the power of convexity"
Libya has got proximity. The sustainable energy of the future will not be transported. It's just unimaginable. Better to tap wind and solar in the desert and its sparsely populated hinterlands and relocate  gas guzzling, carbon polluting industries from the northern territories. The boys are willing to conceive of alternative realities. But first, someone's got to provide a robust democracy that can cradle and protect the mammoth investments required. Will it happen?  Life changes, and 15 basis points a year, for the convexity of capturing change? The Acid Capitalist is in.
Gluts of pessimism by economic agents can create scarcities in the future that in turn can feed an orgy of price explosions to the upside. The Acid Capitalist reveals all the skeletons in his cupboard.

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The Soros Trade09 Apr 202200:55:35

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This week, the Acid Capitalist is restored to his spiritual home, Blanc Bleu and boy is The Alchemist on form ! He's dug up some ancient manuscripts from 2007 from the legend, James Dines, the original gold bull. The foolish reject what they see, the wise reject what they think and accept what they see. Except, the Acid Cap is about to do the unpardonable and reject the wisdom that defined his hedge fund career.

He's been looking at the Ruble. He refers to it dismissively as the Barney Rubble. The Barney has eliminated all of its losses since the shock of the unexpected military campaign against Ukraine.  Men in Suits are adamant that this marks a profound moment in economic history. That Vlad the Bad is Vlad the Economic genius.

The decision to peg to gold, a modern day gold standard, has many in the financial community proclaiming this as the moment Russia defeated the proxy economic war. But more than that, they claim it as a great pivot in history. Where Russia goes, we will follow. Huh??

The Acid Cap is having none of this. The screen price of the Barney is paint taping propaganda. It doesn't trade except by invitation. It's the preserve of the monetary authorities in Russia and those shameful nations that continue to dance with the Bear. Russian citizens certainly can't sell their Barneys, foreign nationals still holding Russian assets can't sell the rally and, heck, even Russian exporters must return their dollars to the kleptocracy.

A gold standard is feasible in Russia because they've defranchised their citizens but elsewhere, democracies rejected the rigours of gold a century ago. The Wizard of Oz captures this poignantly. In the 19th century it was the elites that determined the outcome of elections. The lion depicts the mighty William Bryan Jennings, the populist presidential candidate who ran 2x and lost. The elites robbed him of his courage...

Gold ain’t neutral. It favours the creditor over the debtor, forces the pain on the We, the People. With no vote, the people back then had to take it on the chin. When Treasury Secretart, Mellon, said purge the system of its rottenness in 1929, he was set to crucify the populace on the cross of gold. Thankfully, saner heads prevailed and the system was de-weaponised within 3 years but not before adult unemployment had surged beyond 20% and the banking sector had been bankrupted. The Capitalist loves gold as an investment, as a store of wealth,  but he love's the people more...

Zoltan, another monetary wizard, is discussed. He's one of the most influential financial seers. When he speaks, the whales of the market listen. He believes that the dollar's days are inevitably numbered, that the currency of China is set to supplant the global hedgemon of the $. The Capitalist is having none of it. But rather than bicker, he's established a magical line of clarity. Today, you need 6.3 yuan to buy a dollar. The yuan has been the strongest currency. If the yuan appreciates further, which is to say below 6, the Capitalist is ready to doth his cap to the mighty wizard and proclaim his own Muppetry. 

And finally, the fixed pegs of Hong Kong and Saudi are put under the spotlight. Nothing lasts forever and the days of Hong Kong's dollar peg seem fast running out. The capitalist describes how you can wager a billion dollar bet against the Honkers and your max loss would be $12m whereas your upside is unlimited. Future George Soros wannabes are lining up to take a shot. And just why should the Chinese authorities protect what they see as an anachorism from the past, a potent symbol of when China was poor ?

The Saudi? We might need to wait longer. But, he proclaims, the price of energy falls over the course of history, you want to be a long term consumer, not producer, the Saudi peg violates this rule, it will do a Honkers one day, just not yet. And remember, Joy is our Energy... 

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Crazy Hedge Fund Idea02 Apr 202201:01:40

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The unplugged episode. The Acid Capitalist appears down on his luck this week. Recovering from another bout of dengue fever and yet another evening of rock and roll indulgence, he laments that if only he had found more time to prepare, perhaps the show would have been more spontaneous?  Have no fear, the show is interrupted as the French police arrive to question the Acid Cap, the screen drops to an intermission and  he returns  only to knock out his mic. This is a wild ride. Watch the mayhem unfold.

This week, the membership is asked to reflect on the meaning of mysticism, fantasy and the occult. The Achemist, is incredulous that investors might turn to corn as an alternative to dollar reserves to preserve their wealth. An exasperated Chris demands, " who would do such a crazy thing?" Crazy, retorts the Acid Cap? No more crazy than the faith based system that underpins today's fiat money. I believe... believe...I believe. Our financial world is a religious cult collateralised by blind promises; a score card of broken promises.

Wealth denominated in paper money. China owns around $3 trillion greenbacks at last count, The attraction seems to rest on a promise to pay the bearer on demand. But scratch further and you uncover a web of deceit and broken promises. A promise not to confiscate your assets, to maintain a civil, enterprising society, a promise to uphold civil liberties, a promise that the state serve We the People, a promise of free movement of labour and capital, a promise not to engage in reckless military adventures overseas. He who casts the first sone? No system is faultless but the dominance and endurance of the dollar as the reserve currency of choice testifies perhaps to fewer broken promises... 

Coca-Cola jealously guards the secrets of its magic formula. Imagine, instead, if the most successful nation in history were to broadcast its secrets openly to friend or foe? Surely other nations would seek to copy the "sauce" as they sought to emulate if not over take the hedgemon? Despite the transparency, many large economies seem reluctant to steal such a march. Few leaders are willing to let go of their iron-grip control. The Acid Capitalist doubts any command based economy will surpass the USA in our lifetimes.

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ACID ASSETS FOR THE MANY25 Mar 202201:23:15

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Macro Confessions Part XXXII, The Sweeney Alchemist (@writes_sweeney) is worried that the Acid Capitalist (@hendry_hugh), has been detained in Kyiv en route back to his Blessed isle. Recent images reveal a stark concrete bunker. Just where is he this week? He calls upon the aid and inspirational insight of the political economist @MkBlyt, The Tangerine Bishop of Dundee. It's an unforgettable, Scottish ménage-à-trois that will have you reaching for the closed caption service sooner rather than later.

Men in finance have a tendency to talk to themselves, to be swallowed up in a grey, prohibitive universe to the exclusion of the rest of us. Not here...the bunker gets the spray can graffiti treatment, bass guitars are played loud and badly by the Acid Cap and with a swinging rhythm by The Bishop.

What wanna hedgie can resist the exploration of money by those in the know. The contracts governing the external economic relationships of sovereign nations are revealed for all to see. Myths are exploded. Gold, Bretton Woods and the Eurodollar system are assessed and judged. The boys can see a fourth turning point emerging in this mysterious chess game between continents. But what will replace our dying monetary order? The question is pursued with vigour.

Take red pills, get angry, get even...a market based system that seemed set to reset asset values to zero was effectively rescued by a put option, previous generations called it a cross of gold. A system of winners and losers. Where asset values have to be maintained to support the debt, a support system paid for by the serfdom of the working classes.

Either divide our monolithic world into smaller pieces that aren't too big to fail or award asset values to the debtors, to those unlucky enough to be unable to afford assets. Rather than have the Fed accumulate $7 ton of useless laundromat tokens via QE, lets distribute economic tokens to the 99%. Thatcher did it with the public assets. All privatised. The public housing stock, returned to the home seekers. Awarding assets to the majority sparked the moribund economies of the 1970s back into life, could it work again?? The Bishop has a proposal...

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HEDGE FUND INTEL18 Mar 202201:19:47

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Macro Confessions Part XXXI,  a very tired Acid Capitalist, having flown half-way across the globe, joins the The Sweeney Alchemist (@writes_sweeney), in London Town to review the week when risk markets rallied.

But first Chris is intrigued by the re-emergence of Adam Newman and his crypto plan to save the planet. We Work for the Planet but really? The idea is rubbished by a sceptical Acid Capitalist as way too many blue pills and not enough red. And the boys start quoting Madonna, "How High can we go". This graced the cover of the Eclectica April 2007 investor letter just 4 months before depositors at the failing bank, Northern Trust, formed orderly British queues to withdraw their savings as the financial world tilted into a devastating crisis.

Chris pursues his journalist's curiosity. How are Hedge Funds trading the war? Are they redeeming wealthy Russian clients? Why bid for soccer clubs? And just how many computer screens does a manager need to take on holiday? Twitter is celebrated. Hugh reveals he spends more time scrutinising the platform than traditional newspaper outlets. Did you know that the Russian foreign minister's flight to China was aborted mid way into its journey?

But the big news is China. Has China pivoted from its allegiance with Vlad the Mad? Is it the allure of the $85 trillion global economy versus exclusive rights to Russia's imploding $1.7 trillion?  Or was it stark signs of the dreaded economic dominoes starting to crash and set off a chain reaction that could humble the mighty Chinese economy? Is this the real explanation behind the 25% reversal in the oil price?

War propaganda, objectivity, dark political arts...just how high can we go? In the week that Bono's peace poem was ridiculed by many, the Acid Capitalists concludes, "Like a thief in the night, see the world by candlelight". No wanna be hedge fund student wants to miss this provocative take on the week's events.

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Acid Breath: The Gold-Oil Puzzle15 Oct 202500:32:02

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A market meditation disguised as weather report, part Fear and Loathing, part BBC Shipping Forecast. 

Markets drift in a haze of caution and theatrical boredom. 

Bankers profit without joy, express bubble caution

Traders fears resemble yoga poses held too long. 

Everyone trembling, pretending its balance when its really strain.

This is macro as performance art: 

  • wind light to variable, 
  • visibility ironic
  • confidence intermittent. 

Verdict, witty, contrarian, and usefully boring in the best way.

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UNMISSABLE HEDGE FUND INTEL12 Mar 202201:43:11

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Macro Confessions Part XXX,  the Acid Capitalist is joined by his trusted lieutenant, @ToStRo and together with The Sweeney Alchemist, they brew a heady mix of Putin Put Downs and attempt re-set the global macro chessboard. Chris busies himself with a meaty cheese burger..

Convexity has jumped from our computer screens to the theatre of war. The asymmetry of urban war was well understood by all those not intoxicated by the greed and fear of fascist states. Urban assaults favour the defenders, but like a Bloomberg scenario analysis, convexity has leapt from the city to the surrounding fields and outer limits of the metropole. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft technology supplied liberally to the democracy of the Ukrainian statehood is making this war more asymmetric than any one could ever have hoped for. 

Putin hasn't lost his marbles. Rather his gangster political system has left him bereft of proper intelligence. State corruption has fostered an almighty state failure in intelligence. It's as though the former KGB has been transformed into mammoth PR agency intent on amplifying the wishes of its only client.

Ok, enough war-war. Bretton Woods died in the 1960s. Those that seek to right off the hegemony of the dollar collateral system owing to the escalation in the world's first truly global war are mistaken. Is the world shifting, tilting on its axis? You bet! But not as the apologists and doomsayers would have you imagine. 

The axis has always been defined by the supposed might of the current  account surplus nations versus the receding power of those nations succumbing to current account deficits. Think again...

Channel all your paradoxical thinking. It's been a Wizard of Oz illusion all along. To quote the mighty Wizard, My people have been wearing green glasses so long that most believe this really is the Emerald City. The Acid Capitalist spells it out. Having assets that people crave, that they must own, gives you power. If you can't create enough assets in your own currency that outsiders really want then you never had wealth in the first place. This chimera of wealth is simply the confiscation of other nation's benevolence. 

The world is changing, hallelujah! The mighty Sampson like China. What should it do? It should revalue its currency higher to the dollar. It should promote economic policies that promote trade deficits. It should abolish capital controls. It should celebrate individual liberty and a rules based, transparent legal system. Never gonna happen. The elite leaders of mercantilist nations surround themselves with the same corruption and fear that is responsible for the debacle in the balkans. 

Bitcoin? The problem is almost the same. It's one of distribution. The price needs to crash to liberate the distribution and promulgation of the digital system. Presently, The Bitcoin represents another form of wealth confiscation. BTC and the CCP billionaires, hmm? All of the early adopters hold all of the system-wide wealth. To buy today you have to pay a deadweight rent that requires cash money. Is the Russian state going to buy with rubbles?

The acid Cap portfolio. I'm long as much gold as volatility constraints would permit, maybe its 25pc of the fund. I'm long the corrections. EU Carbon Permits, the price is a steal. Facebook, Paypal, Shoprite, Snap, I'm making this up (!) but 60% drawdowns in serious businesses are magnetic like. 

I'm long agricumtural equities. This is really simple. It’s just fertiliser - Russia exports all 3 nutrients. No need to be too clever - Nutrien, Mosaic, CF, OCI, K+S. There’s aren’t formal sanctions on Russian/Belarusian potash - it’s 30% of global supply combined - but Yara did just say they stopped buying, hmm, I'm a buyer. You set up to buy Jordan?? Arab potash  looks great.

So far, so short vol so I would bet against the Arab oil princes. A line is being drawn in the sand.

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Hedge Fund Masterclass - Make Profits Not War05 Mar 202201:03:19

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Macro Confessions Part XXIX,  the Acid Capitalist is mad as hell. Bewildered and traumatised by the human catastrophe in Ukraine, he's left exasperated by sinister political forces seeking to stymie the advance of the European carbon trading platform to advance their own selfish causes. Carbon permit prices have fallen sharply.

He mans his pulpit. An uncommon occurrence. Rarely can one say that you can do-good and make money. The Exchange Trading Scheme has pursued truth via the price discovery system. Competing exchanges in America limit speculation, limit truth seeking activities. The result? The precious resource of the depleted ozone layer trades for just a third of the European scheme. Truth is always the victim.

But Europe's political class teeter on the brink. States fail when they neglect to replenish their energy supply. Having allowed the region's mighty energy reserves to dwindle to less than five years' worth, the Acid Cap fears the euro will spiral lower. Fight them on the beaches, fight them in the markets...but look after your pennies.

Energy? It's still all about energy. Why is OPEC not pumping more oil demands the Chief Disciple, Chris? Because we shouldn't equate oil reserves with brains, snaps Hugh. Warming to his subject, he proclaims that the Dawn of Chaos will wipe out all dollar pegs, even that of the mighty oil sultan. You see, high oil prices are DEATH to price cartels. He elaborates on his thesis.

Everyone is asleep. Time to take the red pills, time to wake up and seize the trading opportunities. Every wannabe hedge should take note. There's work to be done. Hugh declares himself an intellectual psychopath, whatever could he mean? But he's not tempted to buy Alibaba, the once mighty Chinese retail platform. For whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. He's not buying.

No he's starting a hedge fund cult. He's reeling from Cotard Syndrome. An uncommon malady were the victims believe they've died and gone to hell. It seems an apt metaphor for the last week witnessing the Russian advance on Kiev. Contentious narratives that might form the accepted belief system of the future. Carbon offsets are the blue pills of the dozing masses. Cap and Trade is a red pill means to evade The Matrix and protect the planet's future. The Acid Master concludes by speculating that the permits may trade for less than €50, but he can logically assert a value approaching €300. Cults were formed on less...

Take the reds, reject the blues...

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HEDGE FUND MASTERCLASS - NAVIGATE EUROPE ENERGY CRISIS26 Feb 202201:12:07

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Macro Confessions Part XXVIII, projecting forward from the macro year 2007. Chris finds a Hank Moody like Acid Capitalist holed up in his friends' beautiful villa in St Barts. staring wistfully at the surf. The unthinkable has happened, Russian tanks have broken ranks and are moving in on Kiev.

Risk becomes philosophical. The Dice Man declares that if you can't think then you have no soul, for a soul is something subject to reflection. Little thinking seems apparent in this modern outbreak of war within the central theatre of Europe and so emotions will determine the landscape of European markets. 

The boys begin with a push back on the comments from Shell's trading desk. They claim that speculators are pushing energy prices up to levels that will impact harmfully on ordinary citizens. Pas de tout claims Hugh. It is the long awaited entrance of price discovery that reveals the lamentable record of Europe's leaders. No foresight, no courage has bequeathed a  generation with an acute shortage of local energy sources and no infra-structure to link with democratic suppliers. Fight them on the beaches, fight them in the markets...

Gas? It's still all about gas. The High Priest presents a detailed look behind the futures market for energy and the perils of trading commodity futures. He concludes that the blip in energy prices is most unlikely to prove transitory but will be levitated for much longer to encourage better political energy sourcing and to accelerate much needed energy infra structure.

When will the macro reset end? Hugh estimates that one has to keep an eye on mean reversion in the zeitgeist stocks of Apple and Meta. Are times changing? It does look like a return to a time of chaos. The 1970s had an energy crisis, the Russians ignored sovereign niceties and invaded another country and gold? Gold went to the moon. It bares close attention.

Tune in or miss out.

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HedgeFund MasterClass - Profit from Russian Conflict19 Feb 202200:59:48

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Macro Confessions Part XXVII, projecting forward from the macro year 2006. Chris finds a dishevelled Acid Capitalist holed up in his cement bunker in St Barts. The initial salvos find the boys reminiscing about the Fight Club, The UNIBomber, Nirvana and bereaving the passing of Agent 007 as one of their own.

Hugh picks up the pace, sharing how he bought the chip company AMD and shorted its larger, more successful competitor, Intel simply because he thought the pattern reminiscent of the gold price's resurgence.  Oh Gosh, Oh Gosh I'm Juliette Binoche whispers a wistful Hugh as he confesses to inherent flaws in his trade, but the Dice Man vows never to stop throwing.

The child like wonders of curiosity, Hugh was always asking why the sky was blue? However, he's still furious about environmentalists seeking to prevent all new permitting and exploration for hydrocarbons. Such anarchy is driving energy prices higher. Europe's profound lack of resources is seeing governments subsidizing household energy bills. Could this be the fabled "helicopter money"? Will persistently higher and higher oil prices create permanent and rising  cash subsidies. Is this how inflation finally emerges?

A liberty Gas Pipeline from the US to Europe? The boys ask, would this not be a more elegant solution to confronting Russia's bear hug on the European energy market; better than NATO raising defence spending by $100 bn ? The Acid Shamen levitates with excitement at the notion of what a Europe with a cheap source of energy could achieve for the world.

Gas? Chris couldn't let the opportunity pass without asking about the 2006 hedge fund disaster, Amaranth's $6bn implosion, one of the largest ever. Hugh confesses that he too was long nat gas, just not that long!! Why? Because the price of oil had exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time in 25 years. Hugh explains the perils or opportunities from trading commodity futures curves, beware contangos at the short end. Gas prices rise from $1 to $6 per btu and yet you lose 80% trading futures. The boys explain why.

And finally, the Acid Capitalist reveals his new macro trade.

Tune in or lose out.







 

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HedgeFund MasterClass - The Great Carbon Swindle11 Feb 202201:15:46

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Macro Confessions Part XXVI (somewhere in the future) This week the camera never lies. Hugh is trotting out responses under cross-examination from Chris. Bridgewater, Ray Dallio, Is he the greatest hedge fund manager ever? He's certainly made more money than anyone else...And then, Hugh goes freestyle. You can literally see the moment when the Acid Capitalist forms a new idea in his head. You can share that light bulb moment. Be in the room as Hugh brings down absurdity to try save the planet.

No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present. Our resident Time Lord reveals his trippy macro insights and explains why his own endorsement of EU carbon trading permits from last year may now be bearing fruit.

This week, Hugh aims his sights against Extinction Rebellion. Just what purpose does it serve? It feels more like fin de siècle, Dadaism than a logical plan to reduce carbon emissions. He snorts, it's more like the great generational swindle. Kids seeking to make a difference should spend their money buying closed end mutual funds designed to permanently reduce the number of available pollution permits. Stick it to the guy, we should buy the permits before the polluters. It's totally absurd...

They wince as they consider the zero tolerance for new oil field exploration. 6.5 billion people on the planet consume 3 barrels of oil per person per year. We consume 13. Are they to live in poverty, denied our lifestyle? Or will oil demand double before 2050? What to do, pleads Chris? Corner the market for permits, drive the pollution cost higher demands Hugh. And get smarter, use renewable energy to fuel oil and gas exploration. Don't ban oil, that's suicide, find lower carbon oil instead. Only by being smart can we avoid oblivion.

And NFTs, vouchers, permits. nothing is considered out of bounds. Hugh proposes a radical idea to enfranchise all of us. Distribute pollution NFTs to every household for free. Then start issuing fewer and fewer of them and demand that households pay for their own carbon footprint with such vouchers. Those that pollute less will own more vouchers and accrue a very valuable asset. Use crypto technology to spread ownership of the planet's problem, to create the love-cult 2050 with smart people solving the world's greatest problem.

In probably the most important of the series, Hugh and Chris ask that you share this discussion with friends and family to see if we can all start a revolution. To see if you and me can make the world a smarter and better place...

Who dare refuse?​

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HedgeFund Masterclass: CHINA CRASH 202404 Feb 202201:23:35

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Macro Confessions Part XXV (APRIL,2012) This week Hugh felt a movement in the time-expanse of the financial universe. In a land far, far away, an elderly, wise man of his acquaintance, his Master and Macro overlord bore testimony to a prophecy of bad tidings.

Despite their evident excitement, the boys compose themselves and set about deciphering the godfather of macro, George Soros, and his latest missives delivered in a face-off challenge to China's President Xi. 

No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where the Time Lord reveals his trippy macro insights and explains why his own apocalyptic warnings from 12 years ago may now be bearing fruit.

This week, in the high stakes game of international trade, they ask, is China the nation that reneged? Does history repeat? Has the Chinese property market mimicked the unstable rise of the DJI in the 1920s? Will there be blood? They wince as they consider the ramifications and ponder how best to start a mania.

Regrets for being 10 years early? Perhaps, admits a frank Hugh, if only he had used the Chinese zodiac. Can the world save China, asks Chris? Hugh compares it to the gripping finale of The Squid Game. The curious tale of the Brazilian Icarus, Eike Batista, is revealed as well as the Soros Open Society. Just why do America's right revere Vlad the Blunderer? And will the rubble's gold backing protect the expansive Putin's flank? Not bloody likely! Snorts a dismissive Acid Capitalist.

In probably the best of the series, Hugh takes us from the Gold Standard to Bretton Woods and now the last days of the EuroDollar Standard. A China reset will likely usher in the end of the dollar hegemony, how will nations reconfigure after the great crash?

Chris continues to spin his wheel...

Can you dare miss this special issue..?

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Hedge Fund MasterClas - BIGGEST MACRO MISTAKE28 Jan 202201:32:36

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Macro Confessions Part XX IV (2006) This week risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. The boys review the slaughter of the innocents, namely the abject poor performance of some of last year's most hyped new companies to emerge on the stock market.

The conversation is fast paced. Chris has led Hugh to the Valley of Happiness but he wants to know more about what's causing the melt down in high profile stock names Peloton, Deliver and Oatly. 

No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where Hugh reveals his latest macro insights and explains his Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...

This week they consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The event you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the greatest minds share their best-ideas with their competition?

Regrets, Hugh has a few and he travels back to December 2008 to confront his younger self. You see back in early 2006 he predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing. But when his prophesy came true, he failed to load up on gold. Hugh is raging mad with his younger self.

And with markets in turmoil, the chart rotator returns to examine the Dow Jones constituent 30 stocks to determine where prices are versus their slower, longer-dated moving averages. Hugh invokes his Acid Capitalist powers to draw predictions and stock ideas for the coming year. 

Chris continues to spin his wheel...

Tune-in or be square...

Charts can be found here
 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCs4X8HJf2dQog8-CCaDBlsg

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Hedge Fund Masterclass - Shorting21 Jan 202201:23:29

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Macro Confessions Part XX III (November 2005) This week the boys kick back. Inspired by Jeff Bezos, and his recent jaunt to St Barts, Hugh reveals his 20 hour fast and avocado regime. He believes that longevity and contrarian investing are bedfellows. Chris shakes his head in disbelief.

The conversation is fast paced. Chris has his runner's legs on and wants to know more about what's knocking the capital markets this week. Bonds, not James but the ongoing disturbance in the US Treasury market are discussed. Better to construct an inventory of ideas than trade a market whose long-term trend has yet to change course, cautions Hugh. Check your premises!

No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss this journey from the past to the present day where Hugh reveals his latest macro insights and explains how sometimes he outwitted the market's smartest minds.

This week they take on The Raiders of the Lost Ark, via Cathy Wood's flailing tech fund, and ask why markets generate mysticism to create retail super-star managers and why their unwieldy funds often hit the skids.

Shorting is this week's focus. Why do it? The epic short squeeze of Volkswagen in the midsts of the chaos of October 2008 is explored. Hugh shares his November 2005 Eclectica investment letter to lavish praise on John Armitage, a legendary British hedge fund manager who stopped shorting entirely. The cautionary tale of AW Jones, the manager who first brought  L/S strategies to the public's attention, is examined. You wont believe the paradox of what befell him in 1969.

No one is spared. Hugh loved Ken Fisher's book Superstocks but less the man himself. The gloves are well and truly off and at the end Hugh confesses that he's starting to see a re-awakening in the gold sector. Really? Is that possible?  Chris' insatiable curiosity remains dialled to the max.

 Tune-in or be square...

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Hedge Fund Masterclass - Paradoxical Investing14 Jan 202200:41:55

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Macro Confessions Part XX II (October 2005)
The Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, is pumped to the max as he seeks to understand the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.

This week, Chris continues to audit great hedge fund managers' recent performance. Hugh gives them a pass. And Chris is channeling investments via his viewing habits. He asks, is Succession accurate? Are investors petty or the guardian dogs of capitalism? Hugh favours the latter interpretation and  responds in an Ayn Randian manner. Never apologise for the wealth created by your intellectual graft, he barks.

The investment discussion goes back to 1979, 1982 and 2005 to ask questions about today's epic bull market in the US Treasury market. Hugh accepts that bond yields will rise over the next 40 years but cautions that nascent bull markets protect their bounty of profits with enormous moats. Investors seeking to capture a bear market in Ts better beware. Adopt paradoxical investment techniques to capture the upside.

And somewhere in the mix they discuss African jeep safari research trips and the prejudice of the present. Tune-in or be square...

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Hedge Fund Masterclass- Don't Look Up - Trading Convexity07 Jan 202201:16:05

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Macro Confessions Part XX (Autumn 2005)
We welcome back again,  the Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, to chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.

This week, they examine the first time Hugh really got a good hosing. Warning, it's a shocking tale. And having navigated Christmas,  the boys are channelling The Beatles back catalogue; inspired by Let it Be, they ask why exactly was Hugh channeling Abbey Road back in 2005?  More big currency gyrations this week. This time Hugh attempts to fit together the jigsaw pieces of 5 year lows in the Japanese yen, the sell-off in US Treasuries and the absurd and persistent cheapness of volatility in Japan. Blame Netflix, but Hugh fears a direct meteor strike on planet "markets" and he is dusting down some convex trades.

And somewhere in the mix they discuss Money Heist and wading through pools of reindeer blood. Tune-in or be square...

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Acid Breath: The Day Silver Spoke and AI Went Industrial14 Oct 202501:07:22

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The Day Silver Spoke and AI Went Industrial

The age of abundance is over: compute, energy, and silver say so.

Acid Breath Daily is Hugh Hendry’s financial freak show : a daily dive into markets where logic wrestles madness and central banks juggle chainsaws. It’s macro with a migraine, tequila spilled on spreadsheets, silver screaming at AI, and politicians pretending they can count. No safe takes, no sermons, just volatility with a pulse.


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Macro Christmas Confessions24 Dec 202100:51:29

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Ever attended a Hedge Fund Christmas Party? We've super charged the subtitles as we welcome back the Scottish tornado, Chris Sweeney to once more chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.

This week, we examine Hugh's relationship with Crispin Odey, his vexation at seeing music business valuations explode to the upside this year. He rues his failure to buy EMI back in 2005 when valuations where just 5% to 10% of today's levels. It all makes for A Blue Christmas, the boys are channelling Elvis as they pick over this week's big currency gyrations from Turkey, a country of 85 million inhabitants with a GDP equal to less than a quarter of the value of Apple's stock market capitalisation. Apples and Turkey...merry Christmas one and all.

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Hedge Fund Masterclass - Creativity17 Dec 202101:17:25

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This week we have a Shared Confession. Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, is joined by Dr. Angus Fletcher (Phd, Yale) , a neuroscientist and professor of Shakespeare. Angus rocks ! His latest book, Creative  Thinking, was written especially for US special operatives engaging with live risk. We discuss the carry over principals for all wannabe hedge fund investors. This is hedge fund bootcamp for narrative warriors. The pursuit of linguistics and rogue imagination over data; the rejection of logic. Data predicts yesterday. We suggest a non logical mode of intelligence that dares to see tomorrow. We explain how to react at the speed of life. If you can open yourself up to all the points of perspective when everyone else is rooted in the past then maybe you might just come to find yourself "in the moment". We discuss the principals for seeing the future. Brains don't need spreadsheets but exceptional data. Chaos is brain food.

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China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock10 Dec 202100:33:29

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Ex macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape. This week Tom discusses his new macro essay, China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock. Hugh becomes nostalgic for March 2009 and his slow train journey to Wuhan which revealed abundant evidence of China's property overbuilding 12 years ago. 
Tom explains why their China blow-up fund never made them a billion dollars. The answer was written in the stars. China's wise men acknowledged Confucius - wise man's clock is slower. Beijing's bureaucrats socialised risk and relied upon rapid gdp growth, urbanisation and population growth to remedy the situation.  
The Chinese zodiac has 12 characters like our own system but takes 12 years, not months, to travel the galaxy and back. The gonzo investor shakes his head. A question of faulty time keeping ? 
The boys move on and consider whether inflation is deflationary ? This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and Tom asks why investors never consider debt levels to wealth rather than GDP ? The episode concludes with the contest between real and nominal US Treasury yields...which is the centre of our financial universe ?

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⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes  ⬇️

https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry
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https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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