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Want to know the single map that can tell you whether a day will explode with supercells or fizzle into nothing? In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, you'll learn how to read the 500 millibar map like a pro — decoding troughs, ridges, geopotential heights, and trough tilt to spot severe weather setups before they unfold.
00:00 The 500mb Map & Big-Picture Pattern
00:49 Why Forecasters Start at 500mb
01:24 Geopotential Height Contours
02:33 How Troughs Appear on the 500mb Map
03:43 Trough Exit Region & Severe Weather
04:46 Trough Tilt & Severe Weather
In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down one of the most essential tools in severe weather forecasting: the 500 millibar map. If you've ever wondered why forecasters always start here when evaluating a severe weather setup, this conversation walks you through exactly why.
Trey explains that the 500mb level reveals the overall atmospheric pattern, giving forecasters a snapshot of troughs, ridges, and the general flow that dictates what happens closer to the surface. The discussion covers geopotential height contours — what they represent, how they differ from surface pressure analysis, and why falling heights signal rising motion that can fuel thunderstorm development.
You'll learn how to identify troughs and ridges on a 500mb map by spotting downward kinks in the height contours, and why troughs are the key features to watch for severe weather. Trey dives into the exit region of a trough, where rising motion is maximized, and breaks down how jet streak geometry and vorticity advection drive that upward motion.
The episode wraps with a deep dive on trough tilt — the difference between negatively and positively tilted troughs, why negative tilt often means better overlap of instability, wind shear, and vorticity advection, and how a mature negatively tilted trough can signal a higher-end severe weather event. Whether you're a beginner storm chaser or refining your forecasting skills, this episode gives you a practical framework for reading the big-picture pattern.
Most Storm Chases Are Won Hours Before the Tornado
Most storm chases aren't won when the tornado drops — they're won hours earlier when you decide where to be, and in this episode Coach Trey Greenwood breaks down exactly how to time your arrival, adjust your target on the fly without falling into analysis paralysis, and evaluate your chase afterward so every single outing makes you a sharper, more confident chaser.
00:00 Intro and Storm Chase Arrival Strategy
00:35 Why Arriving Early to Target Matters
01:33 Timing Your Arrival: Early vs Late
02:53 Avoiding Analysis Paralysis in Chasing
06:30 Adjusting Chase Target On the Fly
08:31 Evaluating Your Chase & Post-Analysis
In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down one of the most underrated skills in storm chasing: arriving at your target the right way. Most storm chases aren't won when the tornado drops — they're won hours earlier when you decide where to position yourself and how to get there with time to spare. Trey explains why arriving early to your initial target is critical, giving you the flexibility to review surface observations, assess changing weather data, and adjust your position as storm initiation evolves throughout the day.
On August 28th, 1990, a violent F5 tornado tore through the Chicago suburbs in conditions that shouldn't have produced anything close to that powerful — and the reason why will change how you read the sky forever. Join Gabriel Harbor and meteorologist Trey Greenwood as they break down the hidden storm-scale processes behind the Plainfield F5, revealing practical forecasting and chasing lessons that could help you spot the next tornado that "wasn't supposed to happen."
00:00 Plainfield F5: Tornado That Defied Odds
01:25 Why Plainfield Was Historically Unusual
01:59 Synoptic Pattern: Aug 28, 1990 Setup
Unraveling the Largest Tornado Outbreak West of the Rockies
When you think of tornado outbreaks, Arizona probably isn't the first place that comes to mind — but on October 5th and 6th, 2010, the Desert Southwest defied every expectation with the largest tornado event ever recorded west of the Rockies. Join storm chaser Gabriel Harbor and Coach Trey Greenwood as they break down the rare atmospheric ingredients, surprising dry line dynamics, and critical forecasting lessons from this historic event, so you'll know exactly what signs to watch for the next time severe weather threatens an unlikely location.
What if a north-south warm front, a hidden radar signature, and a rogue gravity wave all conspired to spawn one of the longest-tracked EF5 tornadoes in Iowa history? In this episode, Coach Trey Greenwood breaks down the wild meteorology behind the Parkersburg-New Hartford tornado, giving you the forecasting insights and radar-reading tricks you need to spot the next violent, long-track supercell before it strikes.
Ever wondered why your forecast falls apart even when you're "reading the models right"? In this episode, Gabe and Trey break down exactly which models to trust at each stage of the forecast timeline, so you can stop second-guessing your setups and start chasing with real confidence.
00:00 Intro: The Model Mistake Explained
01:12 Deterministic Models & Their Risks
02:52 Using Ensemble Models 3-4 Days Out
05:15 When Short-Range Models Like NAM Help
06:09 Why Comparing Multiple Models Matters
07:49 Key Atmospheric Features to Analyze
09:26 Final Takeaways for Better Forecasts
Severe weather forecasting hinges on knowing which weather models to trust and when to trust them — and that's exactly what this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast tackles. Host Gabriel Harbor sits down with Lead Coach Trey Greenwood to break down the forecast timeline model by model, from long-range deterministic models to short-range convection-allowing models used the morning of an event.
Ever wonder what a supercell looks like on radar before the sky even turns green? Coach Trey Greenwood breaks down the exact reflectivity and velocity signatures — from kidney bean shapes to V notches to rotation couplets — so you can spot a supercell forming before anyone else in the field even notices.
00:00 What Makes a Storm a Supercell
00:55 Defining Supercells and Their Danger
01:50 Ideal Conditions for Supercell Growth
04:10 Reflectivity Signs of a Forming Supercell
05:29 Decoding the Radar V Notch
06:33 Velocity Data and Rotation Signs
07:56 Mesocyclone vs. Tornado on Radar
Learning how to identify supercells on radar is one of the most valuable skills any storm chaser can develop. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down exactly what separates a supercell thunderstorm from an ordinary pulse storm — and how to spot the transition happening in real time using radar data.
That first tiny blip on radar could be the difference between the chase of a lifetime and a total bust — but most chasers miss the signs until it's too late. In this episode, Gabe and Trey break down exactly how to spot convective initiation early, read echo tops like a pro, and know which storms are worth chasing before they even show up on radar.
00:00 Intro: The Convective Initiation Moment
01:39 Earliest Clues Before Storms Fire
03:00 Reflectivity Blips Explained
04:06 Echo Tops for Diagnosing Storms
05:30 Why Some Storms Die, Others Explode
07:30 Echo Tops Limitations & Mistakes
Every storm chaser knows the feeling: you've forecasted the setup, driven hundreds of miles to your target, and the sky is primed — but nothing has fired yet. That's why understanding convective initiation is one of the most important skills in storm chasing. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, host Gabriel Harbor and Lead Coach Trey Greenwood break down exactly how to use radar to catch storm development at its earliest stages.
Most storm chasers miss tornadoes not because of bad luck, but because they don't know how to read the atmosphere. In this episode, you'll learn how to analyze surface maps, interpret Skew-T soundings and hodographs, and identify the boundaries that separate a good chase from a life-changing one.
Most chasers waste precious time on chase day glued to model runs — but that's the mistake that costs them the storm. Listen to this episode and learn why observed data like soundings, surface obs, and upper air maps become your most powerful forecasting tools when it matters most, and how to use them to make confident, real-time decisions in the field.
00:00 Why Observed Data Is King on Chase Day
00:55 Best Observed Data Sets for Storm Chasers
02:09 What Is the SPC Mesoanalysis?
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The conversation covers the delicate balance of timing — arrive too late and you risk rushing, driving dangerously, and missing storms altogether; arrive too early and you may fall victim to analysis paralysis, second-guessing your forecast as every new model run and HRRR update comes in. Trey recommends arriving about an hour ahead of storm initiation as a sweet spot, giving enough time to gas up, review radar data, and reposition without overthinking your plan.
Trey shares a real-world example from May 18, 2025 — the Arnett, Oklahoma tornado day — where persistent stratus clouds forced a major target adjustment from southern Kansas down to Seiling, Oklahoma, resulting in a successful chase. The episode also dives into building contingency plans ahead of time, adjusting for outflow boundaries and cloud decks on the fly, and how to honestly evaluate your chase performance afterward by reviewing radar and satellite data with a clean slate. Whether you're a seasoned storm chaser or just getting started, this episode is packed with actionable advice on target selection, chase-day timing, and post-chase analysis to make every outing a learning experience.
02:34 High CAPE, Low Shear Tornado Setup
03:47 Storm-Scale Processes Behind the F5
05:01 Outflow Boundary Tornadogenesis Cases
06:01 Forecasting Lessons from Plainfield F5
On August 28th, 1990, a violent F5 tornado carved a devastating path through the Chicago suburbs, killing 29 people and injuring hundreds more. What makes the Plainfield tornado so extraordinary to meteorologists and storm chasers alike is that the atmospheric environment that day didn't look favorable for a violent tornado at all. With extreme instability but very limited low-level wind shear, the setup typically associated with hail and damaging winds rather than F5 tornadoes, this event defied conventional tornado forecasting logic.
In this deep-dive conversation, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with meteorologist Trey Greenwood of Convective Chronicles to unpack the meteorology behind one of the most powerful tornadoes in U.S. history. They explore the large-scale synoptic pattern that day — a classic northwest flow event with an elongated trough and jet streak aloft — and examine why the high CAPE, low shear environment should have precluded significant tornadic supercells. The key lies in storm-scale processes: the Plainfield supercell generated its own outflow boundary, surged ahead of the storm, and then caught back up to it, ingesting critical low-level vorticity along that boundary to produce an EF5 tornado.
Trey also draws parallels to a similar 2019 Tahoka, Texas case where the same outflow boundary tornadogenesis mechanism produced a significant EF2 tornado. The episode wraps with practical forecasting and storm chasing lessons — always watch outflow boundaries, never write off a supercell too early, and remember that extreme instability can override weak low-level shear when boundaries are in play. From the Jarrell, Texas tornado of 1997 to the Plainfield F5, history shows that when CAPE is sky-high and a boundary interacts with a supercell, the rules can go out the window.
07:24 Forecasting Signs for Desert Southwest
08:44 Trey's Personal Storm Chasing Story
On October 5th and 6th, 2010, Arizona experienced the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded west of the Rocky Mountains — an event that shattered every assumption about where significant severe weather can occur. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with meteorologist and storm chaser Trey Greenwood to unpack the extraordinary atmospheric ingredients that converged over the Desert Southwest, producing long-tracked tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and powerful supercells in a region most people associate with dry heat and saguaro cacti, not tornadoes.
The conversation dives deep into the rare confluence of factors that made this outbreak possible: a massive closed low and trough positioned over the West Coast, anomalously strong instability for early October, remnant monsoon moisture pushing dew points into the 60s across central Arizona, and a Plains-style dry line that developed along the Phoenix metro area. Trey explains how these classic severe weather boundaries aren't limited to Tornado Alley — they can happen anywhere when the right dynamics align.
The discussion also explores how storms produced significant tornadoes during the early morning hours of October 6th despite minimal diurnal heating, how orographic forcing from Arizona's complex terrain played a crucial role in storm development, and how wind shear exceeding 70 knots compensated for modest CAPE values of only 500 joules per kilogram. Trey also shares key forecasting hallmarks that meteorologists and storm chasers should watch for to identify potential Desert Southwest severe weather events in the future, along with a personal story about living through this historic outbreak firsthand. Whether you're a seasoned chaser, a weather enthusiast, or a forecaster looking to expand your understanding of severe weather in unconventional locations, this deep dive offers valuable insights into the science of tornadoes where you'd least expect them.
7:16 Gravity Waves & Mesocyclone Strength
9:26 Shear Profile Behind an Hour-Long Track Tornado
On May 25, 2008, a violent EF5 tornado tore a 40+ mile path through Parkersburg and New Hartford, Iowa, producing catastrophic EF4 and EF5 damage along a track that would become one of the most studied long-track tornado events in Midwest severe weather history. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, host Gabriel Harbor sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down the complex meteorology behind this historic tornado outbreak.
Trey dives deep into the unusual surface pattern that fueled the event, including a rare north-south oriented warm front that defied typical mid-latitude cyclone structure and helped storms remain tornadic for an extended period. The conversation covers what forecasters and storm chasers should watch for when a supercell anchors to a boundary, and how that anchoring triggers rapid intensification of the low-level mesocyclone.
The discussion also explores cutting-edge radar science, including descending reflectivity cores (DRCs) — a key signature researchers like Chris Broyles are studying as a precursor to tornado genesis in violent tornado cases. Trey explains how 3D radar analysis can reveal these subtle signs before a tornado forms or intensifies.
Rounding out the episode, Trey unpacks the role of non-convective gravity waves in enhancing mesocyclone strength, drawing on satellite and radar evidence from the Parkersburg storm, and explains how the wind profile's shear structure — reminiscent of the "Forever Meso Hodograph" — allowed this tornado to remain on the ground for over an hour. Essential listening for storm chasers, meteorology students, and severe weather forecasters looking to sharpen their tornado forecasting and nowcasting skills.
The conversation starts by defining deterministic models versus ensemble models, and why relying on a single deterministic run (like the GFS or European Model) seven to nine days out can lead you dangerously astray. Trey explains how ensemble models average out multiple model runs to smooth over the noise and give forecasters a clearer picture of the general pattern three to five days before a potential severe weather setup.
As the timeline narrows, the discussion shifts to short-range models like the NAM and other convection-allowing models such as the HRRR and 3km NAM, which become far more valuable one to two days out or on the morning of an event. Trey also covers why comparing multiple models — rather than fixating on just one — is critical for building forecast confidence, using real examples of model disagreement on surface low placement and moisture return.
Finally, the episode dives into the specific atmospheric features storm chasers should analyze across model levels, including the 500mb pattern, surface dew points, shortwaves, and low-level jet dynamics. Whether you're a beginner storm chaser or a seasoned forecaster, this episode delivers a practical framework for using weather models correctly at every stage of the forecast process — helping you avoid the common model mistakes that wreck severe weather forecasts.
Trey explains the science behind supercell formation, covering the atmospheric ingredients that fuel these storms: instability, strong deep layer wind shear, low-level moisture, and a reliable source of lift. From there, the conversation dives deep into radar interpretation, unpacking reflectivity signatures like the telltale kidney bean shape, sharp reflectivity gradients, hook echoes, and the famous V notch (also known as the "flying eagle") — all early warning signs that a storm's updraft is intensifying.
The episode also tackles velocity data, explaining how to read velocity couplets to detect rotation and distinguish a strengthening mesocyclone from an actual tornado in progress, including the critical role that distance from the radar site plays in accurate interpretation.
Whether you're a beginner learning the basics of severe weather forecasting or a seasoned storm chaser sharpening your radar analysis skills, this episode delivers practical, field-tested knowledge on supercell identification, radar signatures, mesocyclones, and tornado warning signs — everything you need to chase smarter and safer this severe weather season.
They start with the clues that appear before anything shows up on radar — boundaries, fine lines of reflectivity, and bubbling cumulus fields that signal an atmosphere ready to explode. From there, they explain the first true radar signature of a developing storm: the blip, a small pocket of reflectivity that marks the beginning of precipitation aloft.
The conversation moves into echo tops and enhanced echo tops, key radar products for estimating cloud top heights and identifying which developing storms have the best chance of becoming severe. Trey explains the science behind why some updrafts collapse under a stubborn cap or dry air aloft, while others cluster together, resist entrainment, and blossom into dominant supercells — often with an assist from an approaching shortwave.
Rounding out the discussion, Trey covers the common mistakes and limitations chasers run into when relying on echo tops, especially when storms are close to the radar site, and why pairing radar with satellite imagery gives you the clearest picture of a storm's true potential.
Whether you're new to storm chasing or refining your forecast-day strategy, this episode delivers practical, field-tested techniques for identifying convective initiation, reading radar blips, and targeting the storms most likely to become the day's dominant supercell.
In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harbor and Coach Trey Greenwood break down the final piece of the storm chasing forecast puzzle: surface analysis and atmospheric soundings. Together, they walk through exactly how to read a weather map, interpret upper-air data, and identify the conditions that separate a tornadic supercell from an ordinary thunderstorm.
The conversation begins with surface lows — how to locate them using isobar analysis and counterclockwise wind circulation — then moves into the art of identifying weather boundaries. Cold fronts, warm fronts, and dry lines are not found by looking at a single clue. Trey explains that confident boundary placement requires a confluence of signals: wind shifts, temperature gradients, moisture gradients, and pressure tongues on a fully analyzed surface map. The dry line in particular demands attention to dew point contrasts, with high moisture on the eastern side and drastically drier air to the west.
From there, the episode dives into why boundaries matter so much for storm initiation and tornado potential. Surface convergence along boundaries focuses lift, while the enhanced low-level wind shear and vorticity along boundary zones gives supercells the raw spin they need to produce significant tornadoes. Storms that track parallel to a boundary — rather than crossing it — stay in the most favorable thermodynamic environment and maintain elevated tornado potential.
The final two topics cover the Skew-T sounding and the hodograph. The Skew-T reveals atmospheric instability through the relationship between the temperature profile and parcel trace, while capping inversions — identified by a warm nose in the low levels — help forecasters anticipate explosive storm development later in the day. The hodograph, meanwhile, maps wind shear through the atmosphere: a sickle-shaped or meat hook curve in the low levels is a hallmark signature of environments favorable for tornadic supercells.
05:38 The Cheat Code: Vorticity & 3CAPE Overlap
08:23 How to Use Convection Allowing Models
10:18 Why You Can't Rely on a Single CAM
11:27 Why the 3km NAM Is Worthless
On chase day, the models have done their job — now it's time to put them aside. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harber sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down why observed data is the single most important forecasting tool on the day of a storm chase, and how to use it to make confident, real-time decisions in the field.
Trey explains that while forecast models like the NAM, GFS, and European Model are essential in the days leading up to an event, they're simply an estimate of what the atmosphere might do. On chase day, observed data — including upper air maps, surface observations, and morning soundings — tells you exactly what the atmosphere is actually doing. Soundings reveal the instability profile, capping inversions, and wind shear in the vertical. Surface obs help you pinpoint moisture boundaries, surface low positions, and dew point trends in real time.
The episode also dives deep into the SPC Mesoanalysis page, one of the most valuable tools in a storm chaser's arsenal. Trey walks through the "cheat code" — the surface vorticity and zero-to-three kilometer ML CAPE overlap product — and explains why strong low-level instability co-located with surface spin is a powerful signal for tornado potential, especially in landspout and cold core setups.
When it comes to Convection Allowing Models like the HRRR, FV3, and NAM-3km, Trey urges chasers to use them only as a "check your work" tool rather than a primary forecast driver. Every CAM carries its own biases — the HRRR notoriously overmixes and cratering dew points — so model agreement across multiple CAMs is key before placing confidence in any single solution. And the Three Kilometer NAM? Trey's verdict: ignore it entirely.
