Space Strategy – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode, AFPC Senior Vice President, and host of the Disinformation Wars podcast, speaks with Col. Peter Garretson, AFPC Senior Fellow in Defense Studies and former chief futurist for the U.S. Air Force, regarding China’s recent strides forward in space internet, and what it might mean for the unfolding “great power competition” between Washington and Beijing.  

MATERIALS REFERENCED IN THIS EPISODE:

— Ilan Berman, “The Fight for Informational Freedom Is Moving to Space,” Newsweek, September 4, 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/fight-informational-freedom-moving-space-opinion-1948104

— Richard M. Harrison and Peter Garretson, The Next Space Race: A Blueprint for American Primacy (Praeger Security International, 2023), https://www.amazon.com/Next-Space-Race-Blueprint-International/dp/1440880808

— Peter Garretson and Richard M. Harrison, “Reacting to Major Space Events at or Below Geostationary Orbit - After Action Report 1,” AFPC Special Report, July 5, 2024, https://www.afpc.org/publications/special-reports/reacting-to-major-space-events-at-or-below-geostationary-obit-after-action-report-1. 

— Peter Garretson and Richard M. Harrison, “Reacting to Major Space Events on the Moon and in Cislunar Space - After Action Report 2,” AFPC Special Report, September 24, 2024, https://www.afpc.org/uploads/documents/Workshop_2_-_After_Action_Report_-_9.16.24.pdf. 

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with Dr. Greg Autry, Associate Provost for Space Commercialization and Strategy at the University of Central Florida, and former member of the 2016 NASA Agency Review Team and White House Liaison to NASA in 2017.  They discuss a number of ideas in Dr. Autry's new book Red Moon RISING: How America Will Beat China on the Final Frontier. They touch on how Dr. Autry moved from being a software entrepreneur into the New Space movement, including his early work in China on human rights, the impact of his earlier book Death By China, and what are the stakes of Space Race 2.0. They also delve into Dr. Autry's recent testimony on the stakes of the in-space mineral supply chain, including relegating the U.S. to an economic backwater, and potentially existential threat to the US. They explore the big idea of Space Settlement, Millions of people living and working in space on new space stations, the surface Moon and Mars, and why we should populate Mars, and how China's decision to turn inward multiplied rather than solved their problems. They talk about the contribution of space toward our understanding of climate and the environment, and toward offering solutions, and Autry's contention that America can afford to have a future in space. They assess communism, authoritarianism, capitalism, billionaires, nuclear power, and the remarkable bipartisanship in space. They discuss how cooperation is boring and has resulted in very little comparative progress. They converse about NASA's tragic plans to trash the ISS, and alternatives for this tremendous piece of human heritage. They evaluate the progress of NASA's Artemis vs the tasking in the National Space Policy, and the historical reasons for its complexity and schedule delay, and concerns of a lack of urgency, and that the US may be losing in the race with China.  Bridging on Dr. Autry's recent review of the Republican Platform space strategy, Greg discusses what is a vision worthy of our nation and what must be done to move forward. They conclude by discussing ways for individuals to get in involved in the Space Movement, including the National Space Society (NSS), Mars Society, Moon Village Association, and the open & welcoming nature of the Space Movement and ways to seek the education to become a space leader, such as University of Arizona's Thunderbird Executive Master of Global Management: Space Leadership Business and Policy. More of Dr. Autry's thinking can be found in his regular Forbes Science Column and Foreign Policy, and New Space Articles.

In this episode, Senior Fellow Peter Garretson interviews best-selling author Howard Bloom and founder of the Space Development Steering Committee. They discuss fundamental motivations for developing and settling space—humanity's destiny—and the roles that NASA and the Space Force are called to play to support that purpose. They focus on how to balance near-term threats and priorities vs. the power of Cislunar to determine the future. Howard discusses the opportunity cost of the current expandable architecture, and the possibilities suggested by reusable systems like a SpaceX’s Starship. He ends with an urgent plea to the Administration to get Starship flying without delay.

About Howard:

https://www.howardbloom.net/about-howard-bloom/

Screw Sustainability

https://lifeboat.com/ex/screw.sustainability

China Silk Road vs America's Platinum Highway in the Sky

https://theentrepreneurmagazine.com/2021/03/19/chinas-new-silk-road-vs-americas-platinum-highway-in-the-sky-by-howard-bloom/

https://othjournal.com/2018/09/24/chinas-new-silk-road-vs-americas-platinum-highway-in-the-sky/

Garden the Solar System - Green the Galaxy

https://kiss.caltech.edu/workshops/adaptive/presentations/Garden%20the%20solar%20system-Green%20the%20Galaxy%204-23-2014.pdf

https://vimeo.com/67413529

Humanity's Destiny

https://pjmedia.com/culture/david-swindle/2013/06/17/humanitys-destiny-howard-bloom-garden-the-solar-system-green-the-galaxy-n145825

Howard's Books and Articles

https://www.howardbloom.net/

The Space Development Steering Committee

http://spacedevelopmentsteeringcommittee.org/

The 2 billion dollar Moon Prize

https://www.newsweek.com/one-small-step-toward-2-billion-moon-prize-opinion-1476945

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/19/newt-gingrich-michael-jackson-moon-1466853

The Howard Bloom Institute

https://howardbloom.institute/

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Dennis Wingo, CEO of SkyCorp, Inc. and author of Moonrush. They discuss the strategic rationale for space development and industrialization, the strategic importance of the Moon, the grand strategy consequences of failure, and the proper division of labor between government and the private sector. Dennis lays out a vision for Lunar development, and concrete policy steps to mobilize private capital and accelerate Lunar industrial development.

Dennis Wingo:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/skycorp-incorporated?trk=public_profile_topcard-current-company

NDU Towards A Theory of Spacepower (see Chapter 8):
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/spacepower.pdf

Moonrush:
https://www.amazon.com/Moonrush-Improving-Earth-Resources-Apogee/dp/1894959108

The Early Path Not Taken:  
https://denniswingo.wordpress.com/2015/02/16/the-early-space-age-the-path-not-taken-then-but-now/
https://denniswingo.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/the-early-space-age-the-path-not-taken-then-but-now-part-ii/

The Lunar Industrial Facilty:
https://denniswingo.wordpress.com/2017/07/31/the-lunar-industrial-facility-and-orbital-shipyards-how-to-get-there/

Dr. John Lewis' Mining the Sky
https://www.amazon.com/Mining-Sky-Untold-Asteroids-Planets/dp/0201328194

Dr. Paul Spudis The Value of the Moon
https://www.amazon.com/Value-Moon-Explore-Prosper-Resources/dp/1588345033

Skycorp:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/skycorp-incorporated?trk=public_profile_topcard-current-company
https://www.skycorpinc.com/

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, about their recent China-U.S. wargame. They discuss the impetus for the game, who was involved, the force structure, how the game unfolded, the surprises, and the key takeaways. Key takeaways included the need for bodyguard satellites, 'self-executing' norms that allow self-defense, the emerging importance of orbits above GEO and in Cislunar, the space domain awareness required to keep track of dual-use servicing assets, the need to work and share with allies, and to engage South Korea on space cooperation.

Henry:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-sokolski-3b5409ab

https://npolicy.org/leadership-staff/henry-d-sokolski/

NPEC:

https://npolicy.org/mission/

@NuclearPolicy

A China-US war in space: The after-action report

https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-01/a-china-us-war-in-space-the-after-action-report/

https://npolicy.org/china-waging-war-in-space-an-after-action-report-occasional-paper-2104/

https://npolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2104-China-Space-Wargame-Report.pdf

What a space war might look like Circa 2030:

https://npolicy.org/article_file/What_War_In_Space_Might_Look_Like_In_The_Next_One_To_Two_Decades.pdf

Why Cislunar Is Important and Hard:

https://www.afrl.af.mil/Portals/90/Documents/RV/A%20Primer%20on%20Cislunar%20Space_Dist%20A_PA2021-1271.pdf?ver=vs6e0sE4PuJ51QC-15DEfg%3D%3D

https://spaceforcejournal.org/posturing-space-forces-for-operations-beyond-geo/

Federalist Papers on Public Debate:

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-10-02-0178

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Jean-Jacques Tortora, Director of the European Space Policy Institute in Vienna.  They talk about European space policy, the organization and roles of the European Space Agency (ESA), European Commission (EC), NATO, and member states. They discuss changes in how Europe is thinking about the security dimension of space. They also cover European perspectives on natural and man-made threats (Near Earth Objects, Solar Flares, Debris, Congested Traffic, ASATs), and a vision for global governance in space. They discuss the Russian ASAT test, change in NATO posture, French Defense Space Strategy, China & Russia's International Lunar Research Station, the Artemis program, Artemis Accords, a vision for space commerce, and opportunities for U.S.-European space cooperation.

Jean-Jacques:
https://www.iafastro.org/biographie/jean-jacques-tortora.html
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jean-jacques-tortora-3b32645a/

ESA:
https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Corporate_news/ESA_facts#:~:text=Us%20%2F%20Corporate%20news-,The%20European%20Space%20Agency%20(ESA)%20is%20Europe's%20gateway%20to%20space,organisation%20with%2022%20Member%20States.

EU Space Policy Web Page:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-space-programme/

European Space Strategy:
https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Business_with_ESA/ESA_and_the_European_Union_adopt_a_common_strategy_for_space
https://www.siliconrepublic.com/innovation/eu-space-strategy-2021
https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/send/2-public-espi-reports/549-european-space-strategy-in-a-global-context-executive-summary

NATO: Space as an Operational Domain
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_175419.htm

NATO’s Overarching Space Policy :"Such attacks could lead to the invocation of Article 5. A decision as to when such attacks would lead to the invocation of Article 5 would be taken by the North Atlantic Council on a case-by-case basis"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_190862.htm

French Defense Space Strategy:
https://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/layout/set/print/content/download/574375/9839912/version/5/file/Space+Defence+Strategy+2019_France.pdf

UK Proposal:
https://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/C.1/75/L.45/Rev.1
https://www.orfonline.org/research/assessing-the-british-proposal-on-space-security/

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Wayne White, author of the Space Pioneer Act. They discuss the utility of real property rights in space, consistence with the Outer Space Treaty, and how national legislation can help set norms and enable U.S. leadership. They outline the contents of the Space Pioneer act and the next steps for the draft legislation.

Wayne White:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/waynenwhite/

https://independent.academia.edu/WhiteWayne

Space Pioneer Act (Full Act):

https://www.academia.edu/45290412/The_Space_Pioneer_Act

Space Pioneer Act (FAQ):

https://www.academia.edu/49138575/The_Space_Pioneer_Act_Frequently_Asked_Questions

Space Pioneer Act (Outline Only):

https://www.academia.edu/49138580/The_Space_Pioneer_Act_Outline

Real Property Rights in Space:

http://www.space-settlement-institute.org/Articles/research_library/WayneWhite98-2.pdf

https://www.academia.edu/9176166/Real_Property_Rights_in_Outer_Space_unpublished_long_version_1985

Salvage Law for Outer Space:

https://www.academia.edu/6983159/Salvage_Law_for_Outer_Space

National Space Society (About):

https://space.nss.org/nss-statement-of-philosophy/

NSS Space Settlement Library:

https://space.nss.org/space-settlement-library/

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Dean Cheng, a Senior Research Fellow with the Heritage Foundation on Chinese political and security affairs. They discuss modern China, whether it is a peer or near-peer, whether it is totalitarian or a dictatorship, what are its national interests, and how the regime thinks about space. They examine China's global and space ambitions, the reasons for its behavior and adversarial stand, its Lunar, Mars, Space station and anti-satellite and orbital hypersonic program and its capabilities, its military reorganization, whether it can innovate and what policymakers and the Space Force must do in response.

Dean Cheng:

https://www.heritage.org/staff/dean-cheng

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-cheng-b340221

Cyber Dragon: Inside China's Information Warfare and Cyber Operations

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1440835640/ref=cm_sw_r_awdo_navT_a_JWEQ8803R313FX73EJ1X

Lawfare

https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/winning-without-fighting-chinese-legal-warfare

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Kevin O'Connell, Founder and CEO of Space Economy Rising, and former Director of the Office of Space Commerce. They discuss the Kevin's time at Commerce, including the three types of entrepreneurs: the disruptors, the inventors, and the infrastructure builders. Kevin details the history and future of the Office of Space Commerce, and the appropriate roles for government within markets. They outline work to improve the methodology for measuring the space economy and the U.S. proportion of the broader $450 billion space economy, which enables >$5 Trillion in economic value to the U.S. They cover the various current and emerging space sectors, the problems and opportunities of proliferating satellite mega constellations, debris, space traffic management and active debris removal. They predict how reusability and On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Maintenance will change the economics of space. They detail the imperative to regulate at the speed of business, and how the U.S. may lose companies overseas if its regulation is too tight. They speak to the potential for the cislunar economy and the need for enabling infrastructure, resource exploration, and new services to better life on Earth. Next, they discuss space resources, asteroid mining, the Starship Singularity, and the challenge of China. Kevin outlines the need to energize the human capital talent base, and in general, that this is "a game of offense not defense" and that the U.S. needs to run faster. Finally, they close with a discussion on the possibility of space settlements, the role of U.S. states, a space agenda worthy of the nation, and what work remains undone and opportunities for the new administration's space council.

Kevin O’Connell:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-o-connell-092a684/

https://spaceeconomyrising.com/about

Space Economy Rising:

https://spaceeconomyrising.com/

Dept of Commerce Office of Space Commerce

https://www.space.commerce.gov/

Efforts to Elevate Office:

https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/house-appropriators-continue-to-reject-elevating-noaas-office-of-space-commerce-to-department-level/

State of the Space Industrial Base 2021

https://www.diu.mil/latest/state-of-the-space-industrial-base-2021

In this episode, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies Peter Garretson interviews Todd Harrison, Director of Defense Budget Analysis, Director of the Aerospace Security Project, and Senior Fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). They discuss the role of thinking tanks in helping policymakers ask the right questions, and what Todd sees as the most important question at present: How to improve protection of our critical space assets. Their talk focuses on the importance of space to our nation both militarily and economically. They cover the history and emergence of the Space Force and Todd's thoughts on a separate department and consolidation of the NRO. They discuss the changed orientation and priorities of the Biden administration and what major policy initiatives are left undone, including on norms, regulation and licensing. They assess the recent Chinese hypersonic and perhaps fractional orbital bombardment test, the contribution of a sensing layer to missile defense, the technical concerns with space-based missile defense. They close by speaking about Space Force Acquisition reform, and end with a discussion of a space agenda worthy of the nation.

Todd:

https://www.csis.org/people/todd-harrison

https://www.linkedin.com/in/todd-harrison-7832461/

CSIS:

https://www.csis.org/

CSIS Aerospace:

https://aerospace.csis.org/

CSIS Space Threat Assessment 2021

https://www.csis.org/analysis/space-threat-assessment-2021