Explore every episode of the podcast Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalising on change: Japan’s growth champions | 29 Aug 2024 | 00:29:49 | |
Upheaval can create opportunity. Baillie Gifford’s Japan Team seeks out companies that will derive the greatest long-term benefit from transformational forces impacting business and broader society. In this podcast, investment manager Matthew Brett identifies four ‘structural growth’ drivers and the portfolio companies taking advantage of them.
Background: Matthew Brett is the investment manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust and our Japanese Fund, as well as co-manager of the Japanese Income Growth Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he discusses four forces creating long-term growth opportunities: - Japan’s late embrace of digitalisation - the rising spending power of its Asian neighbours - the accelerated adoption of industrial automation - the unmet health needs of an ageing population Brett also names some of the Japanese companies driving these changes or otherwise gaining advantage, including ecommerce conglomerate Rakuten, skincare beauty firm Shiseido, machine vision specialist Keyence and Alzheimer’s drug developer Eisai.
Resources: Kohei Saito: Slow Down – How Degrowth Communism Can Save The Earth
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:45 From psychology to investment 2:25 Changing Japan 3:15 Japan’s distinguishing market characteristics 4:15 Visiting companies and other equities research 6:00 Performance versus the TOPIX 8:00 Defining digitalisation 8:30 Leaving paper behind 10:15 Rakuten’s online enterprise 10:50 The advantage of QR barcode payments 11:30 Rakuten’s loyalty points scheme 12:25 Accelerating automation and industrial robots 13:30 DMG Mori’s precision machines 14:40 Keyence and robotic vision 16:40 China’s chance of catch-up 17:40 Rising wealth of Japan’s Asian neighbours 19:00 Shiseido’s skincare advantage 20:10 Unmet healthcare needs of an ageing population 21:30 Testing further uses for Eisai’s Alzheimer’s drug 23:30 PeptiDream’s synthetic peptides 24:00 Using AI to put peptides to use 25:10 Calbee’s continued innovation 26:00 Book choice 28:50 Conclusion | |||
| The efficiency effect: how four companies shaped up for a new era | 04 Jul 2024 | 00:34:30 | |
Sometimes, you have to take a step back to leap forward. Over the past couple of years, Meta, Amazon, Block and Shopify are among the growth companies to have made efficiency cuts following the pandemic. Gary Robinson, an investor in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Team, says that’s made them more agile and resilient – qualities that will let them take advantage of artificial intelligence and other opportunities to drive long-term growth.
Background: Gary Robinson is joint manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, a manager of the American Fund and a partner in our firm. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores how four leading internet-focused firms have streamlined their operations and reallocated resources to become more adaptable during a period of rapid change. Robinson draws a parallel with companies that made cutbacks after the global financial crisis to suggest that the markets may have underestimated how much growth can be unlocked by leaders taking a hard look at their firm’s spending, organisational structure and business priorities. Robinson suggests that recent efficiency drives will help Shopify, Meta and Amazon pursue AI-related opportunities that could meaningfully increase their earnings. And at Block, efforts to bring two products closer together could help the firm challenge Visa, Mastercard and American Express.
Resources: Behind The Tech: Tobi Lütke: CEO and Founder, Shopify Dwarkesh Podcast: Mark Zuckerberg – Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models & Caesar Augustus Bent Flyvberg: How Big Things Get Done Cyril Northcote Parkinson: Parkinson’s Law, and Other Studies in Administration
More from Gary Robinson: Lessons from evolutionary biology Why companies should embrace chaos
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:40 A background in biochemistry 02:55 The appeal of American companies 03:30 Parallels with the global financial crisis 04:40 Post-Covid efficiency efforts 06:25 Addressing overhiring and patched-together processes 07:40 Future-proofed businesses 08:00 The potential of AI 08:10 Shopify and the distraction of side quests 10:45 Shopify’s Sidekick assistant 12:50 Engineering Shopify’s internal operations 14:20 The authority of founder-leaders 16:00 Meta’s ‘year of efficiency’ 18:00 How AI can drive further growth at Facebook and Instagram 20:10 Business chatbots on WhatsApp and Messenger 21:15 Investing in Block 22:30 Capping employee numbers without compromising growth 24:40 Square and Cash App’s potential to rival Visa and Mastercard 26:35 Meeting Jack Dorsey 27:40 Discipline and focus at Amazon 29:00 Amazon’s fast-growing advertising business 30:20 Generative AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity for AWS 31:25 Offloading routine tasks to artificial intelligence 32:25 Book recommendation 33:40 Outro | |||
| From steam trains to AI vision: 150 years of investing | 26 May 2023 | 00:27:30 | |
To mark the pioneering Trust’s anniversary, James Dow delves into SAINTS’ origins and explains how he helped reinvigorate it for a new age. Background: The Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS) made its debut in 1873, introducing the first trust to prevent shareholders from facing ruin if a business they backed failed. This groundbreaking approach instilled confidence, paving the way for the public to invest in a vital US railway among other enticing overseas opportunities. Nearly 20 years ago, Baillie Gifford took over the Trust’s management. Joint manager James Dow helped revitalise SAINTS by focusing on exceptional income-driven global companies. As he tells podcast host Malcolm Borthwick, their activities range from making AI-enhanced factory cameras to creating some of the world’s most sought-after cosmetics. Resources: The Scottish American Investment Trust Company Order a copy of the SAINTS: 150 Years book SAINTS Manager Insights video, April 2023 The SAINTS approach webinar video, March 2023 Shoemaker by Reebok founder Joe Foster My Years at Volkswagen by Carl Hahn Baillie Gifford’s Trust magazine Follow us via: Companies mentioned include: | |||
| Investing in a sustainability revolution | 14 Apr 2023 | 00:17:25 | |
Keystone Positive Change’s Kate Fox on thinking about the world in 2050 to spot opportunities today. Background: Kate’s conversation with Malcolm Borthwick covers her work with the Deep Transitions Futures project, coordinated by the University of Sussex and Utrecht University and supported by Baillie Gifford. The project aims to identify patterns and insights from past ‘deep transitions’, such as the Industrial Revolution, to inform and guide our approach to identifying solutions to present and future challenges. These include climate change, social inequality, and biodiversity loss. The initiative seeks to develop strategies for fostering radical innovation. It engages investors, policymakers and researchers, among other stakeholders, to promote a transformative investment philosophy and drive systemic change. Resources: The second deep transition: Johan Schot’s theory of radical change Deep Transitions Futures project Previous Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking episodes Follow us via: Companies mentioned include: | |||
| Why small companies are big in Japan | 24 Feb 2023 | 00:21:21 | |
Meet the lesser-known niche players thriving in the shadow of the country’s big brands
Think of Japanese companies and chances are giants such as Sony, Hitachi and Mitsubishi come to mind. You probably don't think of Shima Seiki - a maker of automated knitting machines, Descente, which owns licences to use brands such as Le Coq Sportif and Umbro, or Shoei, a maker of handmade motorcycle helmets. But these kinds of companies are the beating heart of its economy. Japan’s three and a half million small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) employ about seven in 10 private sector workers. These firms are sometimes overlooked by investors in Japan, but not by Praveen Kumar, manager of Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon, who explains why they provide ample opportunities for growth investors.
Praveen Kumar is manager of the Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon and Baillie Gifford Japan Trust. You can read more about his and his colleagues’ thoughts about the positive outlook for Japan’s most inventive and disruptive companies at our Japan Forum: Steering through rough seas. For the thoughts of his colleague Donald Farquharson, Head of Japanese Equities, on the country’s post-Covid return to normality, go to Investing in Japan: Distance lends perspective. And to find out more about how Praveen and his team get to hear about exciting SMEs, watch Investing in Japan: Insights with our Japan researchers.
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| What’s next for growth stocks? | 23 Jan 2023 | 00:22:51 | |
As many question the future of growth investing, the American Fund’s Dave Bujnowski explores the new engines powering progress. | |||
| Special Edition: How AI is transforming our industries | 16 Dec 2022 | 00:28:03 | |
Kirsty Gibson and Julia Angeles on how technology is changing the way we do business. | |||
| Meet the companies disrupting the world’s biggest killer | 24 Nov 2022 | 00:23:33 | |
Rose Nguyen on the companies seeking to overcome the scourge of heart disease. | |||
| Why 'what if...' is the most vital question for investors | 28 Oct 2022 | 00:15:54 | |
Today’s outsized growth rarely follows a steady or predictable path, according to Kirsty Gibson of Baillie Gifford’s US Equities Team. | |||
| Why emerging markets have changed | 15 Apr 2024 | 00:28:14 | |
Emerging markets have sometimes promised more than they have delivered, but circumstances may be tipping in growth investors’ favour. Will Sutcliffe, head of our Emerging Markets Team, explains why it’s an opportune time to invest in the asset class.
Background:
Will Sutcliffe is the head of Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team and co-manager of our Emerging Markets Leading Companies Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he brings his 23 years of experience in the field to explain what makes the specialism different from other types of growth investing.
He makes the case that finding exceptional growth companies at attractive valuations is only part of the equation. Investors must be mindful of the broader macroeconomic environment, he explains, to avoid getting caught out by currency swings or spiralling debt costs. This leads him to conclude that recent resilience in emerging market economies could point to a favourable outlook for the asset class’s growth stocks.
All this only matters to our portfolios if there are exceptional businesses to invest in, and Sutcliffe argues that the emerging markets are home to an increasing number of world-class companies. They range from the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC to the energy, retail and telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries.
Resources:
South-east Asia’s rising export stars Gabriel Garcia Marquez: Until August
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:45 Joining the Emerging Markets Team 03:15 A ‘terrifying’ baptism of fire 05:00 Emerging markets’ ‘dirty little secret’ 05:45 Qualifying for emerging markets status 06:45 Higher-calibre companies 08:00 Macroeconomic resilience 09:30 US-China tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 12:00 Investing in China 13:45 PDD Holding’s Pinduoduo and Temu | |||
| The weight-loss drug with huge growth potential | 07 Feb 2024 | 00:27:19 | |
A new medicine that can help patients lose 15 per cent of their body weight could have far-reaching consequences for healthcare. Wegovy mimics a hormone the gut releases, reducing appetite and slowing digestion to delay hunger’s return. Research is also underway into other potential health benefits.
In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Ross Mathison discusses its maker, the Danish pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk, which became Europe’s most valuable company in 2023.
Background: Ross Mathison is an investment manager in our Global Income Growth Team, co-manager of our Global Income Growth Fund and deputy manager of the Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS).
In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how medicines that mimic the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone could help tackle the growing problem of weight gain. Forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than half the world’s population will either be overweight or obese. That’s likely to lead to more people suffering associated diseases, putting health budgets under further strain.
Novo Nordisk initially researched GLP-1s as a diabetes treatment. The company is the world’s biggest insulin producer, but it’s the release of its weight-loss drug Wegovy that’s transformed its growth prospects. News that medical trials suggest that the therapy could also reduce the likelihood of heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular threats among some patients has driven further investor interest.
Mathison explains that there could be further health benefits beyond this, how even more effective treatments could follow and why Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing edge and connection to the world’s biggest charitable foundation bode well for its future.
Resources: New England Journal of Medicine: Semaglutide trial Novo Nordisk cardiovascular trial press release Novo Nordisk kidney trial press release World Health Organization obesity factsheet
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:40 What are GLP-1s? 4:00 Scientific breakthrough 5:05 Obesity: a disease, not a choice 6:45 Novo Nordisk’s drug, Wegovy 08:10 Prescription costs | |||
| The 3 characteristics of great growth companies | 12 Jan 2024 | 00:28:34 | |
What distinguishes companies that will thrive from those that will perish? In this episode, we explore three traits that mark out the companies set to surge ahead from those more likely to struggle:
1. They solve real-world problems 2. They are financially strong and disciplined 3. They are highly adaptable
Baillie Gifford partner Tim Garratt discusses these characteristics, gives examples of companies that exhibit them and explains why this feels like a once-in-a-generation opportunity to be a long-term growth investor.
Background Tim Garratt is an investment specialist, overseeing the institutional clients who invest in our Long Term Global Growth strategy and leading our broader client specialist network.
He recently co-authored the paper Why growth, why now?, which reaffirms our beliefs about how growth investing can generate attractive returns. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how interest rate rises, restricted amounts of capital and geopolitical tensions are causing a stock market shake-out. And he explains why this plays to the advantage of patient investors who focus on the fundamentals when picking growth stocks.
Garratt gives examples of how companies, including Netflix, Roblox, Shopify and Amazon, fulfil the criteria we seek. And he explains how Baillie Gifford itself is adapting to the times, exploring the use of machine learning and other tools to hone our investment process. Resources: We’re all climate hypocrites now
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:30 From abundance to limitation 03:45 Implications for investors 05:20 Real world problems: supply chains 07:30 Deere and hi-tech farming 09:00 Financial strength and discipline 09:50 Netflix and pricing power 12:00 Keeping watch on margins 14:15 China’s electric vehicle makers 16:15 Adaptability and new business models 16:50 Roblox adds AI 19:30 Microsoft, Amazon and environmental costs 21:45 Sea and the importance of culture 23:00 How Baillie Gifford is adapting 25:05 ‘Why now?’ for growth investing 26:55 Book choice | |||
| The Amazon way: mixing ones and zeros with nuts and bolts | 15 Dec 2023 | 00:26:51 | |
Show notes Amazon and DoorDash take different approaches to bridging the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has built an extensive infrastructure of warehouses, logistics networks and data centres to directly control its operations. DoorDash instead relies on partnerships with restaurants and stores for deliveries, limiting its capital investment. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson analyses the advantages of each model and how both approaches can pose a disruptive challenge to more traditional businesses.
Amazon and DoorDash exemplify two distinct approaches to rooting a business in both the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has done so by investing deeply in physical infrastructure, including its vast logistics operations and data centres. DoorDash, by contrast, has focused on partnering with others to offer meal and grocery deliveries. Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson explores the merits of each approach and discusses how the two companies and others like them can pose a disruptive challenge.
Background Kirsty Gibson is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Growth Team and is joint manager of the American Fund and US Growth Trust.
In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, she explores how a growing number of companies are posing a challenge to incumbents by innovating in both the digital and physical realms. The podcast draws on an interview she gave as part of Baillie Gifford’s Disruption Week 2023 event.
In addition to discussing how Amazon and DoorDash put this into practice, Gibson also discusses the chemicals maker Solugen, self-driving lorries pioneer Aurora and electric car maker Rivian, among others.
Resources: Disruption Week 2023 articles and videos Growth waves: supporting companies and spotting opportunities
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:30 Historical background 4:21 Capital-intensive and capital-light approaches 5:31 How Amazon blends its physical and digital operations 8:33 Rivian’s electric pickup trucks 9:57 Solugen: making chemicals with software 13:39 DoorDash’s capital-light approach 15:45 DashMart distribution centres 17:28 Aurora’s autonomous trucking business model 20:30 Reinvesting in Meta 23:25 Investing with conviction 24:18 Ginkgo Bioworks’ potential
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Companies mentioned include:
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| Beyond China: south-east Asia’s next export stars | 01 Dec 2023 | 00:26:45 | |
China became known as the world’s factory thanks to it offering companies a way to manufacture all kinds of goods at a high quality and relatively low cost. But in recent years, south-east Asian nations, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have begun challenging it for that status. Baillie Gifford investment manager Ben Durrant recently returned from a tour of the region. He discusses some of the long-term growth opportunities he unearthed on his trip.
Background Ben Durrant invests on behalf of the Pacific Horizon Investment Trust, the Pacific Fund, and our Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores the factors that led China to become the world’s leading exporter and how its move up the value chain is now creating opportunities for other south-east Asian countries to grasp. Durrant reviews some of his most memorable encounters in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and reveals which growth companies excited him the most. They include businesses using mined metals to make car batteries, banks serving populations with growing spending power and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the world’s leading catfish exporters. Resources:
The Indonesian companies powering the green transition
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:30 China’s success as a low-cost exporter 03:15 Land reform’s role 04:00 Good quality, low-cost labour 05:45 South-east Asian countries’ advantage 07:15 Vietnam’s growth opportunity 09:30 Vin Hoan: exporting catfish 11:45 Sourcing local insights 13:30 Indonesia’s move up the value chain 16:15 Clusters of expertise in Malaysia 18:00 Looking beyond tourism in Thailand 20:15 Moving up the value chain 22:15 The attraction of growth investing in southeast Asian 23:15 Paying attention to macroeconomics 24:30 Book recommendation
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Companies mentioned include: | |||
| Japan: a new dawn for growth investing | 08 Nov 2023 | 00:21:07 | |
Is the time ripe for Japanese growth stocks? Donald Farquharson is Baillie Gifford’s head of Japanese equities and knows the market better than most. In the latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he draws on a recent visit to the country to explain why conditions seem favourable for a cohort of domestic companies with long-term mindsets.
Background
There’s a sense of renewed confidence and enthusiasm in the air in Japan. The country is home to the world’s second-largest market for equities after the US, but it doesn’t get a corresponding degree of attention from international investors.
The reason is partly because of the nation’s past weak economic performance. But a recovery is underway, and critically, many of its growth stocks have strong balance sheets, big ambitions and a positive story to tell.
In this episode, Baillie Gifford partner Donald Farquharson draws on his experience of investing in Japan since 1990 to explain why he’s particularly optimistic about the opportunities ahead for a select group of companies. They include the medical equipment maker Olympus, the car components manufacturer DENSO and the takeover advisory service Nihon M&A Center. He also shares why he thinks some misunderstand Japan and why it’s no coincidence that many of the companies he backs are founder-run. Resources:
Discovering the unsung superstars of Japanese technology From Yahoo! to Z Holdings: the evolution of an online pioneer Japan: the small businesses with big opportunities Investing in Japan: distance lends perspective Donald Farquharson’s LinkedIn page Aiming High: Masayoshi Son, Softbank Group and Disrupting Silicon Valley
Timecodes: 00.00 Introduction 01:40 Investing in Japan in the 1990s 03:00 ‘Undiscovered’ Japan 03:55 How banks and other businesses changed 05:30 A sustainable recovery? 06:45 An exciting time for growth companies 07:45 Strong balance sheets 08:15 Olympus and endoscopes 09:45 Diversity on the board 11:00 Nihon M&A Center and company takeovers 12:50 DENSO, a major supplier to Toyota and others 14:30 Toyota City, home to one million people 15:35 Competition for car batteries 16:30 Baillie Gifford’s advantage in Japan 17:45 Looking beyond the headlines 18:20 Book recommendation: Masayoshi Son and Aiming High 19:45 Investing in founder-led firms
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Companies mentioned include: | |||
| The science and art of picking growth stocks | 09 Aug 2023 | ||
What counts as a growth stock is ever-changing. Mark Urquhart shares lessons from 27 years of investing to explain how he decides what to buy and how long to hold as he continues his hunt for outsized returns.
Background: In 1996, our largest investments included oil and gas companies and high street banks. These days, our biggest holdings specialise in computer chips, ecommerce and biotech. We still pursue long-term growth – companies we believe will reach their potential given time. But we find it in different places.
In this episode, partner Mark Urquhart explains how he tries to identify companies that can grow for a decade or longer, allowing their sales, profits and share prices to compound along the way. He discusses the changing nature of the businesses that qualify and what gives him the confidence to back maverick founders. Other topics he covers in conversation with managing editor Malcolm Borthwick include lessons from the pandemic and the growth companies that most excite him today.
Resources: Four cardinal questions for growth investors 1599: A Year in the Life of William Shakespeare
Timecodes: 00.00 Introduction 1:20 Joining Baillie Gifford in the pre-Google era 03:45 An evolving attitude to growth companies 05:20 Looking for stronger compound growth 06:35 Investing in Microsoft 08:00 The quest for companies like Hermès 09:55 Learning to be open-minded in Japan 12:10 The importance of mavericks 13:40 How Tesla hit its targets 14:40 Investing in times of crisis 17:35 What the Covid pandemic teaches growth investors 23:05 Today’s most exciting growth companies 25:15 Book recommendation
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Companies mentioned include:
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| The power of Actual investing during changing times | 15 Jun 2023 | 00:25:22 | |
Stuart Dunbar explains why a long-term investment approach suits the new types of growth companies that are emerging. Background: It’s been five years since Baillie Gifford launched its ‘actual investors’ campaign. It focuses on the firm’s long-term, active approach to growth.
In this episode, the effort’s mastermind Stuart Dunbar joins Malcolm Borthwick to take stock and explain why actual investing is more relevant than ever. As he explains, capital-intensive companies are seeking to transform healthcare, transport and entertainment, among other industries, and they need patient, supportive shareholders to fulfil their potential and deliver strong returns.
Resources: Let’s talk about actual investing Baillie Gifford’s investment beliefs The Premonition by Michael Lewis The Economics of Fund Management by Ed Moisson
Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 What is Actual investing? 3:30 Finding great companies 4:20 Investing with autonomy and conviction 6:10 Growth investing 8:00 Companies harnessing technology 9:10 The next decade of growth 12:00 Health innovation 14:45 Interest rates and inflation 19:00 Stress testing portfolios 21:15 Guarding against group think 22:30 Book recommendations Follow us via: Companies mentioned include: | |||
| Why growth investors can’t ignore China | 10 Oct 2024 | 00:24:58 | |
China is transitioning from a property-led economy to one focused on advanced manufacturing. It already leads the world in electric car production and the batteries that power them. And it’s also a growing force in renewables, robotics and biotech. Investment manager Helen Xiong discusses some of the growth companies involved, why concerns about overcapacity seem overstated and why rising trade barriers have implications for stocks traded inside and outside China.
Background: Helen Xiong is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Global Alpha Team and recently became joint deputy manager of The Monks Investment Trust. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking she discusses why global growth investors can’t ignore China even if they don’t directly own stakes in any of its companies. She describes how the country has made ‘advanced manufacturing’ a strategic priority, laying the foundations for future growth. This has already yielded results, with companies such as the electric vehicle maker Li Auto and battery producer CATL creating long-term value for shareholders – with the prospect of more to come. Xiong suggests that ‘rising trade barriers’ are one consequence of Western nations’ seeking to protect domestic industries and discusses how she takes this into account when deciding which companies to back. In addition, she considers the implications of Chinese retaliation and what that might mean for some of the US and Europe’s leading exporters. Xiong also shares her view on recent stimulus by the Chinese central bank and government agencies, focusing on signals of a shift that could create long-term shareholder value.
Resources: China: finding the new shoots of growth Jonathan Haidt: The Righteous Mind – Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion
More from Helen Xiong: Beyond NVIDIA: investing across the semiconductor ecosystem Global Alpha Investor Forum 2024
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:30 The advantage of being Chinese, African and European 3:00 Relationships v individualism 5:15 China’s post-Covid economy 7:00 Why China matters to global investors 8:30 Overcapacity: a feature, not a bug 10:15 Brutal competition 10:55 Investing in Li Auto 13:45 Li Xiang’s attention to detail 14:30 The car industry’s iPhone moment 16:25 Trade tariffs 18:20 Potential Chinese retaliation 19:35 Chinese regulators 20:35 Stimulus 21:35 Focusing on long-term shareholder value 22:20 Book choice 23:45 Conclusion
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| 5 inevitable and investable growth drivers | 13 Jan 2025 | 00:31:05 | |
From smarter robots to intelligently designed drugs, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar discusses some of the transformations that will define the years ahead. | |||
| ‘Ordinary’ but exceptional: firms leading the US’s infrastructure renaissance | 16 Dec 2024 | 00:25:31 | |
The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour.
Background:
Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure.
Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine.
In addition, Taylor discusses what a second Trump presidency might mean for the sector and why finding standout companies involves travelling off the beaten track.
Resources:
Building back: the great US infrastructure opportunity Spotting the winners from the great US infrastructure renaissance
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 1:35 Exceptional businesses confronting an exceptional problem 3:20 The US v global infrastructure opportunity 4:35 Donald Trump’s second presidency 6:40 The benefits of patience 7:35 Wild weather 8:45 Investing in Advanced Drainage Systems 11:05 Labour shortages 12:15 Stella-Jones’s wooden telegraph poles 14:05 Tree-spotter specialists 16:15 Martin Marietta’s supply-side advantage 18:55 Recycled aggregates’ limitations 20:15 Finding US infrastructure investments 21:45 Comfort Systems USA and keeping datacentres cool 24:20 “Massive in terms of magnitude of spend and duration” | |||
| Private companies: backing tenacious trailblazers | 09 Dec 2024 | 00:28:20 | |
Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so. Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings.
Background:
Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering. From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing features of these pioneering firms is that they’ve been able to choose their shareholders. Nicolier reveals why Baillie Gifford’s patient approach and reputation have helped make us a favoured partner. He also reveals how deep research helps him and his colleagues embrace the uncertainty that can be involved with backing companies at an earlier stage of growth than many public market stocks. And he introduces some of his team’s most recent investments, including the immersive experience specialist Cosm and the next-generation computing company Tenstorrent.
Resources:
Baillie Gifford Private Companies hub Private companies: investing in trailblazers
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes:
0:00 Introduction 1:30 What’s often misunderstood about private companies 2:40 Relationship building in Brazil and Colombia 3:40 Why reputation matters 5:35 “Look out for a gringo” 6:30 Private markets’ scale 7:00 Our clients’ advantage 9:25 SpaceX and uncertainty 12:40 Dealing with setbacks 13:45 Bending Spoons’ business model 16:50 Cosm’s ‘shared reality’ experience 18:50 Tenstorrent and Jim Keller’s talent magnetism 20:20 The state of the IPO market 21:55 Why Epic Games has stayed private 25:00 Disney’s $1.5bn stake in Epic Games 26:40 “Too big to ignore” | |||
| Quantum, space, fusion: 3 firms engineering the future | 03 Feb 2025 | 00:29:45 | |
Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Find out how a trio of private companies is bringing them closer to fruition. | |||
| European growth: unique brands, hidden champions | 18 Mar 2025 | 00:34:46 | |
Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving. | |||
| UK growth: opportunities amid tariff turbulence | 14 Apr 2025 | 00:31:12 | |
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to "turbocharge" Britain's growth strategy in response to new US tariffs. His government is prioritising key sectors poised to drive prosperity, including advanced manufacturing, AI and the creative industries. Baillie Gifford's head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, discusses some of the companies already excelling in these sectors how they can prosper over the long term despite the current uncertainty. | |||
| The ‘invisible’ millions: banking’s new frontier | 16 Jul 2025 | 00:30:54 | |
From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth.
Background: Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge.
In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods.
Companies covered include:
Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia.
Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform.
Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends.
HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path.
Resources: Trip Notes: Brazil (UK version / Ex-UK version)
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05 From the British Army to impact investing 03:40 A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world 04:25 The different types of financial inclusion 05:40 Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness 06:45 Volatile repayment rates 07:35 Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products 09:05 Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies 10:25 Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes 12:45 Nubank’s Mexican banking licence 14:15 Ensuring growth comes with impact 15:20 Grab’s loans and insurance 16:40 Grab’s data-driven approach to risk 19:45 The fast growth of remittances 21:25 Remitly’s cheaper money transfers 22:35 Gaining market share from Western Union 23:40 HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network 24:55 Financial inclusion in advanced economies 26:55 The ‘lucrative customers of the future’ 28:15 Book choice
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| Emerging markets: the next engines of global growth | 03 Jun 2025 | 00:32:07 | |
Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade. Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage.
Background: Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team. In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend. The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including:
In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity.
Resources:
Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world Emerging markets: our philosophy Emerging markets: rethinking the opportunity Finding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast) Luckin Coffee: looking forward South-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast) The Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson
Companies mentioned include: Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong 03:15 Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond 05:05 US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence 07:25 Rising trade between emerging market nations 08:35 Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines 10:15 The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar 11:40 Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors 12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities 14:45 Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors 16:25 SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert 17:55 Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity 18:45 SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI 20:40 Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app 21:40 Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond 23:00 Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture 24:30 Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity 25:25 Luckin’s taste for invention 26:40 Investing in China amid a trade clash 28:50 The risk of underexposure 29:40 Book choice 30:55 Investing in Africa | |||
| Skin in the game: the hidden power of persistence | 15 Aug 2025 | 00:29:48 | |
Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence.
Background: Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability. In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners where control has passed between generations, and businesses backed by a foundation or holding company with long-term objectives. Companies covered include: Discovery – the health insurer that has gone global, using data to nudge customers into improving their fitness. Ryanair – the European airline that benefited from its chief executive’s obsession with controlling costs. Technoprobe – the family-run ‘probe card’ specialist whose ability to spot faults in computer chips has kept pace with semiconductors’ increasing complexity. Demant – the hearing aid specialist backed by a charitable foundation, which has invested in getting closer to its customers. Scout24 – the German property portal whose independence Baillie Gifford helped preserve, allowing it to pursue a successful long-term growth strategy. Resources: A new age of discovery: the case for international (restricted to certain clients) Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant Entrepreneurs Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking
Companies mentioned include: Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:55 The “scenic route” to asset management 03:00 Focusing on quality growth 04:35 Persistence’s enduring edge 05:45 Different types of inside ownership 06:30 Discovery’s healthy nudges 08:10 Adrian Gore’s visionary leadership 09:45 How Michael O’Leary turbocharged Ryanair 12:45 Ryanair’s scale advantage 14:00 Technoprobe’s family leadership 16:25 Engaging with Richemont’s Johan Rupert 18:30 Demant’s long-term philanthropic backer 20:55 Providing persistence’s benefits to Scout24 22:55 Selling out of Credit Suisse 24:30 Persistence and alignment 26:10 Book choice | |||
| Where obsession meets opportunity: Japan’s ‘overlooked’ small caps | 23 Oct 2025 | 00:31:37 | |
From using AI to create better weather forecasts to helping people with disabilities get their dream job, Japan’s small companies are a disruptive force. | |||
| Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk – and other new investments | 01 Dec 2025 | 00:31:31 | |
AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, representing some of the world’s fastest growing and most disruptive businesses. Investment manager Robert Natzler tells host Leo Kelion how and why we backed them on behalf of our clients.
Background: Robert Natzler is an investment manager on our Private Companies Team and deputy manager of The Schiehallion Fund. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, he brings you up to date on his team’s recent activity, bringing our tally of private company investments to more than 160, with a total value of over $10bn. Companies discussed include: Mottu – the motorcycle rental and service provider, serving gig workers and others in Latin America. Revolut – the digital bank that has surpassed HSBC and other traditional lenders in terms of its customer count. Anthropic – the frontier AI lab behind the chatbot and coding champion Claude. Xiaohongshu – the Chinese social network, also known as RedNote, with a strong and growing following, especially among young women. Zetwerk – the outsourcing specialist giving western brands and manufacturers the ability to broaden their supply chains beyond China. Resources: From code to culture: private companies shaping the world Private growth: looking over the overlooked Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Mottu CEO Rubens Zanelatto’s masterstroke 02:20 Investing in ‘real’ companies with ambitious leaders 05:20 Helping growth-stage companies prepare to go public 08:35 Exceptional companies in California and beyond 09:55 Mottu: providing motorcycles and maintenance to an underserved segment 13:10 Revolut: pursuing a different playbook to traditional banks 16:35 Gaining conviction in AI lab Anthropic 23:40 Dario Amodei’s appeal to other AI talent 24:30 Xiaohongshu (RedNote)’s popularity among women in China’s wealthiest cities 26:25 Zetwerk: expanding access to factories around the world 28:37 How Baillie Gifford clients can access private companies 29:35 Taking a global perspective on private companies | |||
| Emerging market companies leapfrogging western rivals | 16 Dec 2025 | 00:28:29 | |
From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager Alice Stretch reveals to host Leo Kelion some of the most disruptive companies innovating at speed in Asia and Latin America.
Background: Alice Stretch is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, she explores some of the growth companies in her portfolios turning constraints to their advantage and reducing friction in their customers’ lives.
Companies discussed include:
PolicyBazaar – the Indian insurance platform making it easier for people to protect themselves against life’s financial shocks. Nubank – the Brazilian digital lender extending access to banking and credit. Meituan – the food delivery and local services app extending its reach beyond China. MercadoLibre – the Latin American ecommerce and fintech giant expanding into advertising. Mobile World – the Vietnamese conglomerate that has expanded from mobile phones to competitively priced groceries. Sea Ltd – the Singaporean gaming, shopping and fintech group eyeing the possibilities of agentic AI. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer. E Ink – the Taiwanese e-paper pioneer building on its ebook success to provide supermarkets with updateable price tags and marketers with low-power digital billboards. Pony.ai – the first driverless car company to offer a robo-taxi service in four of China’s most populous cities.
Resources: Emerging markets: how we do what we do Emerging markets: from imitators to innovators Emerging markets: the next engines of growth (podcast) Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Pony.ai takes to Shanghai’s roads 02:00 The imitators become the innovators 05:10 How PolicyBazaar benefits from not being locked into a legacy system 07:10 Nubank: reducing friction while expanding access to banking and credit 09:25 MercadoLibre’s multi-act expansion leads it to advertising technology 10:25 Mobile World’s move from selling handsets to groceries 11:50 Ways Sea Ltd developed capabilities while operating under constraints 13:45 Sea CEO Forrest Li’s ability to adapt and pivot 15:25 Taking the long-term view and a generalist approach 17:30 Studying the semiconductor industry with the help of Imec and TSMC 19:45 Investing in Chroma and E Ink in Taiwan 21:10 Walmart and other supermarkets adopt E Ink’s updateable price labels 22:45 The case for investing in Pony.ai as a long-term growth investor 24:10 Pony.ai’s cost advantage and international partnerships 25:55 Taking macroeconomic and geopolitical risk into account 27:15 Putting deep knowledge and research to our clients’ advantage | |||
| China’s new growth leaders: inventing, not copying | 13 Feb 2026 | 00:32:16 | |
From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China’s top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west’s footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere.
Background: Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust.
In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state’s efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today’s critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future.
Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on behalf of our clients.
Portfolio companies discussed include: - CATL – the battery maker whose products power electric vehicles worldwide and increasingly support the renewable energy sector - BeOne and Innovent Biologics – pharmaceutical firms developing the next generation of cancer drugs - AMEC and NAURA – semiconductor equipment makers enabling China to develop increased self-reliance in computer chips - Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent – China’s ‘big tech’ companies, whose artificial intelligence tools are becoming embedded into people’s daily lives - MiniMax – the AI startup rolling out video and agentic tools at a fraction of the cost of western counterparts - Horizon Robotics – the automated driving tech provider with its eye on an even bigger opportunity.
Resources: China investment strategy hub (institutional clients only) Private investor forum 2025: investing in great growth companies Trip notes: on the road with Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:55 Joining the China Equities Strategy 02:40 Intense competition 04:00 The government’s influence 06:10 CATL, the electrification champion 08:45 Investing with a 5-year time horizon 10:25 Shanghai office, local expertise 11:45 Regulations and geopolitics 14:30 China’s next Five-year Plan 16:15 Innovent Biologics’ new cancer drugs 18:10 Lower-cost clinical trials 19:45 Being selective in semiconductors 21:25 Investing in chip equipment makers 23:00 China’s ‘big tech and AI’ 25:10 MiniMax making AI like ‘tap water’ 27:45 The road to robotics 29:35 A market you can’t ignore 30:30 Book choice
Glossary of terms (in order of mention):
Third plenum: a major policy meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party, often used to set big economic/political direction. Sovereign bond issuance: The government raising money by selling bonds (IOUs) to investors. Opportunity set: the range of investable companies available to choose from. Capex: capital expenditure – money spent on long-term assets like factories, equipment, or data centres. Fiscal deficit target: how much more the government plans to spend than it collects in revenue (taxes plus other income), expressed as a share of the economy. GDP: gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services a country produces in a year. Market capitalisation: the total value of a company’s shares (share price × number of shares). ESG: environmental, social and governance – how a company manages environmental impact, people issues, and corporate oversight. Large-form batteries: big battery packs used in things like electric vehicles and grid storage. Energy storage systems: large batteries that store electricity for later use (helping balance the grid). Generic drugs: copies of medicines whose patents have expired; usually cheaper, same active ingredient. Bi-specific (bispecific) drugs: drugs designed to bind to two targets at once (often to direct immune cells to cancer). ADC drugs: antibody–drug conjugates – antibodies that deliver a toxic payload to cancer cells. Out-licensing: selling rights to your drug/technology to another company (often for upfront + milestone payments). EUV machines: extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment used to make the most advanced chips. Foundry: a factory business that manufactures chips for other companies. Etch and deposition: steps in chipmaking – etch removes material to form patterns, deposition adds thin layers. Picks and shovels: a metaphor for companies that sell essential tools to an industry (rather than end products). Digitalisation: moving processes and services from offline to software and data-driven systems. Compute: the processing power (chips and servers) used to train/run AI. Large language model (LLM): an AI trained on lots of text to generate and understand language. Margins: how much profit a company makes per pound/dollar of revenue (after costs). Cloud business: selling computing power/storage/software over the internet instead of on a local machine. Algorithm layer: the method or software logic that makes the AI work (as distinct from the hardware). Gross margin: revenue minus direct costs (before overheads), a rough measure of product profitability. Assisted driving: features that help a driver (lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc) but don’t fully replace them. Autonomous driving: a car driving itself with minimal or no human input. Software attachment rate: the percentage of customers who add paid software features and/or subscriptions. | |||
| Smarter models, sharper founders: growth investing in the AI era | 14 Jan 2026 | 00:35:48 | |
With developments in generative AI progressing at such a furious pace, how can investors cut through the noise to identify the companies that will really matter? Baillie Gifford’s Kyle McEnery shares his approach to meeting the entrepreneurs building the future – including his encounters with AppLovin, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Roblox and Reddit.
Background: Kyle McEnery is an investment manager in our Long Term Global Growth Team (LTGG) and previously led Baillie Gifford’s Artificial Intelligence Research Project.
In this conversation, he tells host Leo Kelion why AI’s ever-increasing capabilities make this one of the most exciting times to be a growth investor, and how leadership and culture act as signals in the noise to help identify companies with the greatest long-term growth potential.
In addition to discussing which of the firms enabling and using today’s language-based ‘frontier’ AI models are leading the pack, he explains how efforts to understand and simulate real-world physics could unlock further progress.
Portfolio companies discussed include: Anthropic – developer of the Claude AI models, which excel at coding, among other tasks. NVIDIA – the semiconductors firm whose accelerator chips are powering many of the advances in generative AI. Roblox – the video games platform whose Cube 3D technology allows creators to build objects and environments out of text-based descriptions. AppLovin – the ad-tech company whose AI-first strategy keeps the business lean and nimble. Reddit – the online discussion forum, whose authentic human conversations are gaining in value as a counterpoint to AI-generated output.
Resources: AI and the future of everything: a long-term perspective Anthropic: why we are backing the AI frontrunner Long Term Global Growth Strategy (institutional investors only) LTGG philosophy and process (institutional investors only) Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk The forge of intelligence: exploring the rise of physical AI Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction – Dartmouth College’s artificial intelligence workshop 01:50 From quantum to AI via asset management 02:50 Creating and then culling a machine-learning initiative 08:05 ChatGPT’s wake-up call 10:35 Exceptional companies at the dawn of generative AI 12:10 Anthropic’s appeal to business customers 14:55 A winner-takes-all opportunity? 17:05 Dario Amodei and the scaling laws 19:10 NVIDIA’s foundational role in neural networks 22:55 Making video game items in Roblox with AI 25:00 AppLovin – a company built for the next era 26:55 Reddit’s valuable conversational communities 29:35 World models, spatial AI and the physical world 32:35 Staying open-minded and humble 33:35 Book choice
Glossary of terms (in order of mention):
Generative AI: AI systems that create new content such as text, images or code rather than just analysing data. Machine learning: AI techniques where systems learn patterns from data rather than being explicitly programmed. End-to-end, systematic (investment strategy): Fully automated, with decisions made by predefined rules rather than human judgement. Agentic AI: AI systems that can plan and carry out tasks autonomously rather than just responding to prompts. R&D: Research and development. GPT: OpenAI’s models, which power its ChatGPT chatbot. Natural language processing: AI that enables computers to understand and generate human language. Token: A chunk of text, such as a word or part of a word, used by language models. Foundation models: Large AI models that can handle a wide variety of tasks. Know your customer (KYC): Financial checks used by banks to verify customers’ identities and risks. Scaling laws: The idea that AI performance improves predictably as models, data and computing power increase. Compute: The processing power required to train and run AI models. Jevons’ paradox: The counterintuitive idea that efficiency gains can increase, rather than reduce, overall usage. CUDA: NVIDIA’s software platform for programming its chips for high-performance computing. Jensen: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s co-founder and chief executive. Metaverse: Shared virtual worlds where people interact, create and play online. Large language models (LLMs): AI systems trained on vast amounts of text to understand and generate language. Multimodal models: AI systems that can process multiple types of data, such as text, images and video. World models: AI systems that learn how the physical world works in order to predict and simulate it. Embodied AI: AI that learns through physical interaction with the real world, such as robots or vehicles. Imitation learning: Training AI by having it copy actions demonstrated by humans. | |||
| The active edge: the case for growth in uncertain times | 16 Mar 2026 | 00:38:56 | |
A series of “extraordinary” events has made the environment more challenging for growth stocks. But “this level of trepidation can’t go on forever”, says Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar in this latest episode, suggesting that patient investors will benefit when stability returns and the markets value exceptional companies at a premium again.
Stuart Dunbar is a director in Baillie Gifford’s Clients Department and is responsible for helping shape and communicate the firm’s investment philosophy. In this conversation, he considers how a succession of disruptive events – the most recent being the current war in the Middle East – has rattled markets and led investors to focus on companies’ short-term profits rather than their long-term potential. However, this period of flux will not last forever, he argues. And when we re-enter a period of stability, patience should be rewarded as markets recognise exceptional companies’ future earnings potential and price them accordingly.
In the meantime, Baillie Gifford’s investment teams remain focused on finding and supporting businesses that will prosper from change and supporting their management to take the long view. And as Dunbar reveals, as the sources of growth broaden out, we are backing some companies that come as a surprise.
Portfolio companies discussed include:
Resources: The Compound and Friends podcast
Companies mentioned include:
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 Active v passive 03:35 “Know what we own” 06:15 Building relationships with company leaders 07:55 Causes and effects of uncertainty 11:05 Beyond the Magnificent 7 12:45 A period of relative stability 17:50 Compressed valuations 19:25 Nubank and Medpace’s promise 23:10 Meetings with clients 25:40 Broader sources of growth 28:15 Private equity growth 31:25 Better-informed stock picking 33:25 Staying independent and standalone 35:45 “Wait until the market comes to its senses” 37:10 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention):
Latent heat: energy absorbed or released during a change of state, like ice melting, without a change in temperature. Active investing: trying to beat the market by choosing investments based on research and judgement. Passive funds: investment funds that track a market index rather than picking stocks actively. Quantitative approaches: investment methods that use data, models and statistics to make decisions. Market capitalisation weights: an index method that gives bigger companies a larger influence based on their total market value. Alignment of incentives: making sure different parties are rewarded in ways that encourage the same goals. Drawdowns: significant falls in the value of an investment from a previous peak. R&D: research and development – spending on innovation and new products or technologies. Backdate options: setting share-option dates retrospectively to make them more valuable, often controversially. Shareholder registers: the official records of who owns a company’s shares. Benchmark: a standard, often an index, used to compare investment performance. Magnificent 7 / Mag 7: the seven giant US tech stocks that have dominated market performance in recent years. GPU: graphics processing unit – a specialised chip often used for AI computing because it handles parallel tasks well. Sub-market multiple: a valuation lower than the market average. Strategic asset allocation: deciding how much to invest in broad asset classes like shares, bonds or private markets. Benchmark-aware: closely focused on performance relative to a benchmark index. Venture capital: investment in early-stage, high-growth private companies. Private equity buyout funds: funds that buy controlling stakes in companies, often using debt. Private equity growth: investing in more mature private companies that are expanding but not yet public. Roadshow: presentations by company leaders to investors ahead of an IPO or fundraising. Alternative asset classes: investments outside traditional shares and bonds, such as private equity or infrastructure. Path dependency: the idea that outcomes are shaped by the sequence of earlier decisions and events.
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| The big squeeze: when bottlenecks work to your advantage | 04 May 2026 | 00:34:44 | |
Bottlenecks often act as constraints on growth, but companies that create funnels through them can gain pricing power and capture long-term value. Investment manager Mike Taylor reveals some of the companies he thinks achieve this best and how he spots such pinch points before they fully form. Mike Taylor is a Baillie Gifford partner, an investment manager in its Global Alpha Strategy and a co-manager of The Monks Investment Trust.
In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about how bottlenecks can confer an advantage on companies that sit astride them. That includes those that serve a mismatch between supply and demand created by others, and those whose products and services create a new pinch point, which they control. In addition, he explains why mixing a cocktail of bottlenecks in his portfolios can deliver smoother growth for their shareholders.
Portfolio companies discussed include:
Resources: Don’t Burn Your Boats: the case for selective AI investing Global Alpha Investment Strategy SPQR: A History of Ancient Rome Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive Valuing scarcity in the age of AI
Companies mentioned include: Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:10 Investing inside and outside Baillie Gifford 03:55 Defining bottlenecks 04:45 How Medpace helps biotechs meet regulatory requirements 07:35 Founder-leader, August Troendle 09:30 Stress testing the bottleneck 12:00 Games Workshop creates its own pinch point 14:50 Shepherding Warhammer over the long term 17:45 Mixing bottlenecks to reduce volatility 20:05 Tidewater and the coming offshore vessel shortage 23:30 Freeport-McMoRan feeds the US’s copper needs 26:20 AI bottlenecks: silicon wafers and high-bandwidth memory 30:00 Enduring versus fleeting bottlenecks 31:25 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention):
Adenovirus: A common type of virus that can cause mild illnesses such as colds, sore throats or conjunctivitis, but can also be modified for medical uses such as delivering genes into cells.
Gene therapy: A treatment that works by adding, altering or replacing genes inside a patient’s cells to treat disease. Clinical trials: Research studies in people that test whether a medicine, treatment or medical approach is safe and effective.
FDA: The US Food and Drug Administration, the regulator responsible for approving medicines, vaccines and medical devices in the United States.
Contract research organisation: An organisation that helps biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials. Private partnership: A business owned by its partners rather than by public shareholders.
Supernormal profits: Profits above what would normally be expected in a competitive market. Supply side: The part of an industry concerned with how much of a product or service companies can provide. Demand side: The part of an industry concerned with how much customers want or need a product or service.
Rate limiter: The factor that determines the maximum speed at which something can grow, expand or be produced. Novel therapies: New types of medical treatments, often based on recent scientific advances. Intellectual property (IP): Legal rights over creations such as brands, stories, characters, designs, patents or software. Free cash flow: The cash a company produces after paying the costs needed to run and maintain the business. Energy transition: The shift from fossil-fuel-based energy systems toward lower-carbon sources such as renewables, batteries and electrification. Compute: The processing power needed to train or run AI models or other computing tasks.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM): A type of advanced memory chip that can move very large amounts of data quickly to processors, making it especially useful for AI systems.
Steam turbine: A device that uses steam to spin a wheel or rotor, converting heat energy into mechanical motion.
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| Why American culture feels so chaotic – and how investors can benefit | 01 Jun 2026 | 00:36:38 | |
The US public’s tastes and habits are fragmenting, leading to new consumer behaviours. The shift from a handful of TV networks to an endless supply of streamed shows and social media clips is just one of many causes. Investment manager Dave Bujnowski discusses the characteristics that determine which growth companies should thrive in the resulting ‘high entropy’ environment. Dave Bujnowski is an investment manager in our US Equity Growth Team and co-manager of the Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund and our American Fund.
In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about his work with anthropologist Dr Grant McCracken, studying the causes and effects of the fragmentation of American culture. They believe that US culture is a system that has entered a ‘high entropy state’ – meaning that tastes and habits no longer change in an orderly manner. The result is “tremendous instability” and a sense of “continual pandemonium”.
This shift, they argue, has implications for growth companies and helps explain why some are struggling to maintain mass-market appeal. But the disorder also plays to others' advantage, and they have sought to identify which will thrive and why.
Portfolio companies discussed include: · Cloudflare – the service that protects websites from attack and optimises their performance · DraftKings – the sports gambling platform that lets Americans bet on sporting events · Samsara – the Internet of Things specialist helping companies track and make sense of data · SharkNinja – the home appliance company behind the CREAMi ice-cream maker · Shopify – the ecommerce platform serving merchants · Resources: Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive When systems fragment: entropy, cultural change and the next great US companies
Companies mentioned include: · Amazon · Meta · Netflix · Samsara · Shopify · SpaceX
Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05 System-level thinking 03:20 How change happens 06:10 Entropy and fragmentation 08:15 A conversation with Cloudflare’s CEO 10:20 Ants and anthropology 13:25 Grant McCracken on North Sea culture 15:15 The causes of splintering culture 17:05 New consumer behaviours 19:15 Challenging times for lululemon 21:00 Shopify and agility 23:10 Agentic commerce 25:40 SharkNinja and new niches 28:30 DraftKings and cultural anchors 30:40 Samsara’s entropy antidote 32:10 Finance and space: systems to watch 33:50 Book choice
Glossary of terms (in order of mention):
Entropy: In this podcast, a metaphor for systems becoming more fragmented, varied and harder to predict. Cash flows: The money moving into and out of a business. Market cap: The total stock-market value of a company: share price multiplied by number of shares. S&P 500: A major US stock-market index of large companies. Second law of thermodynamics: A physics principle often simplified as the tendency of energy in a closed system to spread out over time.
Mainframe: A large, central computer used by organisations to process major computing tasks.
Big iron: Informal technology term for large, powerful central computers.
MMA: Mixed martial arts, a full-contact combat sport.
Delulu: Internet slang for optimistic or unrealistic self-belief. Short for ‘delusional’.
Traffic aggregation: Bringing together large numbers of users or customers in one place, often online.
Total addressable market (TAM): The total potential market size for a product or service if it reached all possible customers.
Prediction markets: Markets where people trade contracts based on the likelihood of future events.
Internet of Things: Everyday equipment connected to the internet so it can collect and share data.
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| North stars: Why are Swedish companies world leaders? | 12 Jul 2022 | 00:21:33 | |
It’s a small country with a large number of businesses that can keep innovating and growing for decades. Stephen Paice explores what’s so great about Sweden. | |||
| How education escaped from the classroom | 27 May 2022 | 00:20:37 | |
Apps and online courses have upended the economics of education, making learning more accessible, fun and relevant. Positive Change’s Thaiha Nguyen explains. | |||
| Why private companies matter more | 07 Apr 2022 | 00:20:33 | |
For Peter Singlehurst, head of the Private Companies Team, the difference between investing in a private company and a public company is that private companies choose their shareholders. So, why choose Baillie Gifford? | |||
| Growth or value? It's not a black or white choice | 25 Feb 2022 | 00:18:50 | |
‘Growth or value’ has framed many investment narratives. But Monks’ Malcolm MacColl explains the two aren’t at odds. | |||
| Investing in Japan: What’s changed and what’s next | 26 Nov 2021 | 00:16:46 | |
Over four decades Japan has seen 21 prime ministers come and go. Exporters such as Toyota and Toshiba have flourished but the country has also struggled with debt and deflation. Matthew Brett, manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, discusses what’s next. | |||
| How Harnessing Chaos Can Make Companies More Nimble | 02 Aug 2021 | 00:17:35 | |
Chaos is often associated with a failure of leadership. Gary Robinson, manager of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, argues that the best bosses don’t resist disorder but channel it to create ‘chaordic organisations’ in which innovation thrives. | |||
| Exploring Sustainable Growth - A New Approach To ESG | 31 May 2021 | 00:19:25 | |
Are your investments as good for the environment and society as you think they are? Stuart Dunbar, partner at Baillie Gifford, explains why too many people have been lulled into a false sense of security by metrics-based approaches to ESG that don’t support the transition to a more sustainable society. | |||
| Breaking the Biotech Model | 16 Apr 2021 | 00:15:19 | |
Messenger RNA vaccines could provide a solution not just to Covid, but to cancer, and other diseases. Julia Angeles, co-manager of Baillie Gifford’s Health Innovation Fund, discusses how. | |||
| What I’ve Learned in Four Decades of Investing | 26 Mar 2021 | 00:16:47 | |
Karma Chameleon topped the charts, Mrs Thatcher won a landslide and Monks’ manager Charles Plowden joined Baillie Gifford. 1983 was a year to remember. Charles reflects on what’s changed and looks at the investment opportunity to come. | |||
| Sustainable investing - Finding the innovative companies of the future | 25 Jan 2021 | 00:16:33 | |
Are there limits to economic growth? Will we run out of ideas? Investment manager Lee Qian explains why he’s confident innovation will create a more prosperous, sustainable and inclusive world. | |||
| How Covid is changing the way we shop | 14 Dec 2020 | 00:15:29 | |
With the high street either shut down or harder to access during the pandemic, consumer habits had to change. Moritz Sitte, joint manager of the Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust and the European Fund, explores what this means for the future of shopping.
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| Tomorrow’s Income Aristocrats | 31 Jul 2020 | 00:15:04 | |
Income investing has been shaken by the coronavirus, but how will this affect the dividend payers of the future? Baillie Gifford investment manager James Dow gives us a glimpse of the potential star performers of tomorrow. | |||
| The purpose of investing | 11 Jun 2020 | 00:14:17 | |
Over the last decade the investment industry has become increasingly short term and increasingly complex. Stuart Dunbar talks to Malcolm Borthwick about whether the industry has lost its way. | |||
| Why this crisis favours growth stocks | 04 May 2020 | 00:15:18 | |
Growth stocks have been more resilient during the coronavirus downturn. Tom Slater discusses why now is not the time to hunt for value stocks and accelerated digital disruption. | |||
| Navigating a stock market crisis | 26 Mar 2020 | 00:16:58 | |
These are turbulent times for investors. Scott Nisbet shares what he has learnt from previous crises and talks about why now’s the time to read Albert Camus. | |||