Upheaval can create opportunity. Baillie Gifford’s Japan Team seeks out companies that will derive the greatest long-term benefit from transformational forces impacting business and broader society. In this podcast, investment manager Matthew Brett identifies four ‘structural growth’ drivers and the portfolio companies taking advantage of them.

Background:

Matthew Brett is the investment manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust and our Japanese Fund, as well as co-manager of the Japanese Income Growth Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he discusses four forces creating long-term growth opportunities:

-        Japan’s late embrace of digitalisation

-        the rising spending power of its Asian neighbours

-        the accelerated adoption of industrial automation

-        the unmet health needs of an ageing population

Brett also names some of the Japanese companies driving these changes or otherwise gaining advantage, including ecommerce conglomerate Rakuten, skincare beauty firm Shiseido, machine vision specialist Keyence and Alzheimer’s drug developer Eisai.

Resources:

Japan: the next opportunity

Kohei Saito: Slow Down – How Degrowth Communism Can Save The Earth

Companies mentioned include:

Calbee

DMG Mori

Eisai

Keyence

KOSÉ

PeptiDream

Rakuten

Shiseido

SoftBank

Timecodes:

00:00    Introduction

1:45      From psychology to investment

2:25      Changing Japan

3:15      Japan’s distinguishing market characteristics

4:15      Visiting companies and other equities research

6:00      Performance versus the TOPIX

8:00      Defining digitalisation

8:30      Leaving paper behind

10:15    Rakuten’s online enterprise

10:50    The advantage of QR barcode payments

11:30    Rakuten’s loyalty points scheme

12:25    Accelerating automation and industrial robots

13:30    DMG Mori’s precision machines

14:40   Keyence and robotic vision

16:40    China’s chance of catch-up

17:40    Rising wealth of Japan’s Asian neighbours

19:00    Shiseido’s skincare advantage

20:10    Unmet healthcare needs of an ageing population

21:30    Testing further uses for Eisai’s Alzheimer’s drug

23:30    PeptiDream’s synthetic peptides

24:00    Using AI to put peptides to use

25:10    Calbee’s continued innovation

26:00    Book choice

28:50    Conclusion

Sometimes, you have to take a step back to leap forward. Over the past couple of years, Meta, Amazon, Block and Shopify are among the growth companies to have made efficiency cuts following the pandemic. Gary Robinson, an investor in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Team, says that’s made them more agile and resilient – qualities that will let them take advantage of artificial intelligence and other opportunities to drive long-term growth.

Background:

Gary Robinson is joint manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, a manager of the American Fund and a partner in our firm. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores how four leading internet-focused firms have streamlined their operations and reallocated resources to become more adaptable during a period of rapid change.

Robinson draws a parallel with companies that made cutbacks after the global financial crisis to suggest that the markets may have underestimated how much growth can be unlocked by leaders taking a hard look at their firm’s spending, organisational structure and business priorities.

Robinson suggests that recent efficiency drives will help Shopify, Meta and Amazon pursue AI-related opportunities that could meaningfully increase their earnings. And at Block, efforts to bring two products closer together could help the firm challenge Visa, Mastercard and American Express.

Resources:

Behind The Tech: Tobi Lütke: CEO and Founder, Shopify

Dwarkesh Podcast: Mark Zuckerberg – Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models & Caesar Augustus

Bent Flyvberg: How Big Things Get Done

Cyril Northcote Parkinson: Parkinson’s Law, and Other Studies in Administration

More from Gary Robinson:

Lessons from evolutionary biology

Why companies should embrace chaos

Companies mentioned include:

Amazon

Block

Meta

Netflix

Shopify

Timecodes:

00:00    Introduction

01:40    A background in biochemistry

02:55    The appeal of American companies

03:30    Parallels with the global financial crisis

04:40   Post-Covid efficiency efforts

06:25    Addressing overhiring and patched-together processes

07:40    Future-proofed businesses

08:00    The potential of AI

08:10    Shopify and the distraction of side quests

10:45    Shopify’s Sidekick assistant

12:50    Engineering Shopify’s internal operations

14:20    The authority of founder-leaders

16:00    Meta’s ‘year of efficiency’

18:00    How AI can drive further growth at Facebook and Instagram

20:10    Business chatbots on WhatsApp and Messenger

21:15    Investing in Block

22:30    Capping employee numbers without compromising growth

24:40    Square and Cash App’s potential to rival Visa and Mastercard

26:35    Meeting Jack Dorsey

27:40    Discipline and focus at Amazon

29:00    Amazon’s fast-growing advertising business

30:20    Generative AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity for AWS

31:25    Offloading routine tasks to artificial intelligence

32:25    Book recommendation

33:40    Outro

To mark the pioneering Trust’s anniversary, James Dow delves into SAINTS’ origins and explains how he helped reinvigorate it for a new age.

Background:

The Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS) made its debut in 1873, introducing the first trust to prevent shareholders from facing ruin if a business they backed failed. This groundbreaking approach instilled confidence, paving the way for the public to invest in a vital US railway among other enticing overseas opportunities.

Nearly 20 years ago, Baillie Gifford took over the Trust’s management. Joint manager James Dow helped revitalise SAINTS by focusing on exceptional income-driven global companies. As he tells podcast host Malcolm Borthwick, their activities range from making AI-enhanced factory cameras to creating some of the world’s most sought-after cosmetics.

Resources:

The Scottish American Investment Trust Company

Order a copy of the SAINTS: 150 Years book

SAINTS Manager Insights video, April 2023

The SAINTS approach webinar video, March 2023

Shoemaker by Reebok founder Joe Foster

My Years at Volkswagen by Carl Hahn

Baillie Gifford’s Trust magazine

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Email

Companies mentioned include:

Analog Devices

Atlas Copco

Cognex

L'Oréal

Keystone Positive Change’s Kate Fox on thinking about the world in 2050 to spot opportunities today.

Background:

Kate’s conversation with Malcolm Borthwick covers her work with the Deep Transitions Futures project, coordinated by the University of Sussex and Utrecht University and supported by Baillie Gifford.

The project aims to identify patterns and insights from past ‘deep transitions’, such as the Industrial Revolution, to inform and guide our approach to identifying solutions to present and future challenges. These include climate change, social inequality, and biodiversity loss. The initiative seeks to develop strategies for fostering radical innovation. It engages investors, policymakers and researchers, among other stakeholders, to promote a transformative investment philosophy and drive systemic change.

Resources:

The second deep transition: Johan Schot’s theory of radical change

Deep Transitions Futures project

Previous Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking episodes

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Companies mentioned include:

Beyond Meat

Deere

Northvolt

Tesla

Umicore

Meet the lesser-known niche players thriving in the shadow of the country’s big brands

Think of Japanese companies and chances are giants such as Sony, Hitachi and Mitsubishi come to mind. You probably don't think of Shima Seiki - a maker of automated knitting machines, Descente, which owns licences to use brands such as Le Coq Sportif and Umbro, or Shoei, a maker of handmade motorcycle helmets. But these kinds of companies are the beating heart of its economy. Japan’s three and a half million small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) employ about seven in 10 private sector workers. These firms are sometimes overlooked by investors in Japan, but not by Praveen Kumar, manager of Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon, who explains why they provide ample opportunities for growth investors.

Praveen Kumar is manager of the Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon and Baillie Gifford Japan Trust. You can read more about his and his colleagues’ thoughts about the positive outlook for Japan’s most inventive and disruptive companies at our Japan Forum: Steering through rough seas.  For the thoughts of his colleague Donald Farquharson, Head of Japanese Equities, on the country’s post-Covid return to normality, go to Investing in Japan: Distance lends perspective. And to find out more about how Praveen and his team get to hear about exciting SMEs, watch Investing in Japan: Insights with our Japan researchers. 

As many question the future of growth investing, the American Fund’s Dave Bujnowski explores the new engines powering progress.

Kirsty Gibson and Julia Angeles on how technology is changing the way we do business.

Rose Nguyen on the companies seeking to overcome the scourge of heart disease.

Today’s outsized growth rarely follows a steady or predictable path, according to Kirsty Gibson of Baillie Gifford’s US Equities Team.

It’s a small country with a large number of businesses that can keep innovating and growing for decades. Stephen Paice explores what’s so great about Sweden.

Apps and online courses have upended the economics of education, making learning more accessible, fun and relevant. Positive Change’s Thaiha Nguyen explains.

For Peter Singlehurst, head of the Private Companies Team, the difference between investing in a private company and a public company is that private companies choose their shareholders. So, why choose Baillie Gifford?

Emerging markets have sometimes promised more than they have delivered, but circumstances may be tipping in growth investors’ favour. Will Sutcliffe, head of our Emerging Markets Team, explains why it’s an opportune time to invest in the asset class.

Background:

Will Sutcliffe is the head of Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team and co-manager of our Emerging Markets Leading Companies Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he brings his 23 years of experience in the field to explain what makes the specialism different from other types of growth investing.

He makes the case that finding exceptional growth companies at attractive valuations is only part of the equation. Investors must be mindful of the broader macroeconomic environment, he explains, to avoid getting caught out by currency swings or spiralling debt costs. This leads him to conclude that recent resilience in emerging market economies could point to a favourable outlook for the asset class’s growth stocks.

All this only matters to our portfolios if there are exceptional businesses to invest in, and Sutcliffe argues that the emerging markets are home to an increasing number of world-class companies. They range from the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC to the energy, retail and telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries.

Resources:

Emerging markets: why bother?

Stock story: Pinduoduo

South-east Asia’s rising export stars

Jio Financial Services

Natura

PDD Holdings

Pinduoduo

Reliance Industries

Temu

TSMC

Gabriel Garcia Marquez: Until August

Timecodes:

00:00    Introduction

01:45    Joining the Emerging Markets Team

03:15    A ‘terrifying’ baptism of fire

05:00    Emerging markets’ ‘dirty little secret’

05:45    Qualifying for emerging markets status

06:45    Higher-calibre companies

08:00    Macroeconomic resilience

09:30    US-China tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

12:00    Investing in China

13:45    PDD Holding’s Pinduoduo and Temu

Over four decades Japan has seen 21 prime ministers come and go. Exporters such as Toyota and Toshiba have flourished but the country has also struggled with debt and deflation. Matthew Brett, manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, discusses what’s next.

Chaos is often associated with a failure of leadership. Gary Robinson, manager of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, argues that the best bosses don’t resist disorder but channel it to create ‘chaordic organisations’ in which innovation thrives.

Are your investments as good for the environment and society as you think they are? Stuart Dunbar, partner at Baillie Gifford, explains why too many people have been lulled into a false sense of security by metrics-based approaches to ESG that don’t support the transition to a more sustainable society.

Messenger RNA vaccines could provide a solution not just to Covid, but to cancer, and other diseases. Julia Angeles, co-manager of Baillie Gifford’s Health Innovation Fund, discusses how.

Karma Chameleon topped the charts, Mrs Thatcher won a landslide and Monks’ manager Charles Plowden joined Baillie Gifford. 1983 was a year to remember. Charles reflects on what’s changed and looks at the investment opportunity to come.

Are there limits to economic growth? Will we run out of ideas? Investment manager Lee Qian explains why he’s confident innovation will create a more prosperous, sustainable and inclusive world.

With the high street either shut down or harder to access during the pandemic, consumer habits had to change. Moritz Sitte, joint manager of the Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust and the European Fund, explores what this means for the future of shopping.

Income investing has been shaken by the coronavirus, but how will this affect the dividend payers of the future? Baillie Gifford investment manager James Dow gives us a glimpse of the potential star performers of tomorrow.

Over the last decade the investment industry has become increasingly short term and increasingly complex. Stuart Dunbar talks to Malcolm Borthwick about whether the industry has lost its way.

A new medicine that can help patients lose 15 per cent of their body weight could have far-reaching consequences for healthcare. Wegovy mimics a hormone the gut releases, reducing appetite and slowing digestion to delay hunger’s return. Research is also underway into other potential health benefits.

In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Ross Mathison discusses its maker, the Danish pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk, which became Europe’s most valuable company in 2023.

Background:

Ross Mathison is an investment manager in our Global Income Growth Team, co-manager of our Global Income Growth Fund and deputy manager of the Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS).

In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how medicines that mimic the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone could help tackle the growing problem of weight gain. Forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than half the world’s population will either be overweight or obese. That’s likely to lead to more people suffering associated diseases, putting health budgets under further strain.

Novo Nordisk initially researched GLP-1s as a diabetes treatment. The company is the world’s biggest insulin producer, but it’s the release of its weight-loss drug Wegovy that’s transformed its growth prospects. News that medical trials suggest that the therapy could also reduce the likelihood of heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular threats among some patients has driven further investor interest.

Mathison explains that there could be further health benefits beyond this, how even more effective treatments could follow and why Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing edge and connection to the world’s biggest charitable foundation bode well for its future.

Resources:

New England Journal of Medicine: Semaglutide trial

Novo Nordisk cardiovascular trial press release

Novo Nordisk kidney trial press release

Novo Nordisk Foundation

Wegovy

World Health Organization obesity factsheet

Hitting Against the Spin

Timecodes:

00:00    Introduction

1:40      What are GLP-1s?

4:00      Scientific breakthrough

5:05      Obesity: a disease, not a choice

6:45      Novo Nordisk’s drug, Wegovy

08:10    Prescription costs

Growth stocks have been more resilient during the coronavirus downturn. Tom Slater discusses why now is not the time to hunt for value stocks and accelerated digital disruption.

These are turbulent times for investors. Scott Nisbet shares what he has learnt from previous crises and talks about why now’s the time to read Albert Camus.

Investing in emerging markets is like marmite. It divides opinion.

Charles Plowden explains why he’s one of the optimists.

Investment manager, Praveen Kumar explains why the Japanese cosmetics industry is in a period of rapid growth and how it could be set to continue for the long term.

Stephen Paice looks beyond the negative economic headlines to explore the exciting investment opportunities that are still to be found in Europe.

From disrupting global telecoms to colonies on Mars, space enthusiast and investment manager Luke Ward looks at the potential prizes in the commercial race for space.

From synthetic spider silk clothes to plant-based burgers that taste like meat, Kirsty Gibson is fascinated by how industrial biotech could transform nearly every aspect of our lives.

‎ 

‎ 

What distinguishes companies that will thrive from those that will perish? In this episode, we explore three traits that mark out the companies set to surge ahead from those more likely to struggle:

1.      They solve real-world problems

2.      They are financially strong and disciplined

3.      They are highly adaptable

Baillie Gifford partner Tim Garratt discusses these characteristics, gives examples of companies that exhibit them and explains why this feels like a once-in-a-generation opportunity to be a long-term growth investor.

Background

Tim Garratt is an investment specialist, overseeing the institutional clients who invest in our Long Term Global Growth strategy and leading our broader client specialist network.

He recently co-authored the paper Why growth, why now?, which reaffirms our beliefs about how growth investing can generate attractive returns.

In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how interest rate rises, restricted amounts of capital and geopolitical tensions are causing a stock market shake-out. And he explains why this plays to the advantage of patient investors who focus on the fundamentals when picking growth stocks.

Garratt gives examples of how companies, including Netflix, Roblox, Shopify and Amazon, fulfil the criteria we seek. And he explains how Baillie Gifford itself is adapting to the times, exploring the use of machine learning and other tools to hone our investment process.

Resources:

Why growth, why now?

We’re all climate hypocrites now

See & Spray

Netflix engagement report

Timecodes:

00:00        Introduction

1:30           From abundance to limitation

03:45        Implications for investors

05:20        Real world problems: supply chains

07:30        Deere and hi-tech farming

09:00        Financial strength and discipline

09:50        Netflix and pricing power

12:00        Keeping watch on margins

14:15        China’s electric vehicle makers

16:15        Adaptability and new business models

16:50        Roblox adds AI

19:30        Microsoft, Amazon and environmental costs

21:45        Sea and the importance of culture

23:00        How Baillie Gifford is adapting

25:05        ‘Why now?’ for growth investing

26:55        Book choice

‎ 

Show notes

Amazon and DoorDash take different approaches to bridging the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has built an extensive infrastructure of warehouses, logistics networks and data centres to directly control its operations. DoorDash instead relies on partnerships with restaurants and stores for deliveries, limiting its capital investment. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson analyses the advantages of each model and how both approaches can pose a disruptive challenge to more traditional businesses.

Amazon and DoorDash exemplify two distinct approaches to rooting a business in both the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has done so by investing deeply in physical infrastructure, including its vast logistics operations and data centres. DoorDash, by contrast, has focused on partnering with others to offer meal and grocery deliveries. Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson explores the merits of each approach and discusses how the two companies and others like them can pose a disruptive challenge.

Background

Kirsty Gibson is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Growth Team and is joint manager of the American Fund and US Growth Trust.

In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, she explores how a growing number of companies are posing a challenge to incumbents by innovating in both the digital and physical realms. The podcast draws on an interview she gave as part of Baillie Gifford’s Disruption Week 2023 event.

In addition to discussing how Amazon and DoorDash put this into practice, Gibson also discusses the chemicals maker Solugen, self-driving lorries pioneer Aurora and electric car maker Rivian, among others.

Resources:

Where software meets steel

Disruption Week 2023 articles and videos

Growth waves: supporting companies and spotting opportunities

Past podcasts

Timecodes:

00:00   Introduction

1:30      Historical background

4:21      Capital-intensive and capital-light approaches

5:31      How Amazon blends its physical and digital operations

8:33      Rivian’s electric pickup trucks

9:57      Solugen: making chemicals with software

13:39    DoorDash’s capital-light approach

15:45    DashMart distribution centres

17:28    Aurora’s autonomous trucking business model

20:30   Reinvesting in Meta

23:25   Investing with conviction

24:18    Ginkgo Bioworks’ potential

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Companies mentioned include:

Alphabet

Amazon

Aurora Innovation

DoorDash

Ginkgo Bioworks

Meta

Netflix

Rivian

Solugen

Tesla

Twilio

China became known as the world’s factory thanks to it offering companies a way to manufacture all kinds of goods at a high quality and relatively low cost. But in recent years, south-east Asian nations, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have begun challenging it for that status. Baillie Gifford investment manager Ben Durrant recently returned from a tour of the region. He discusses some of the long-term growth opportunities he unearthed on his trip.

Background

Ben Durrant invests on behalf of the Pacific Horizon Investment Trust, the Pacific Fund, and our Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores the factors that led China to become the world’s leading exporter and how its move up the value chain is now creating opportunities for other south-east Asian countries to grasp. Durrant reviews some of his most memorable encounters in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and reveals which growth companies excited him the most. They include businesses using mined metals to make car batteries, banks serving populations with growing spending power and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the world’s leading catfish exporters.

Resources:

The Indonesian companies powering the green transition

Ben Durrant LinkedIn page

How Asia Works

How the World Really Works

Past podcasts

Timecodes:

00:00        Introduction

01:30      China’s success as a low-cost exporter

03:15        Land reform’s role

04:00        Good quality, low-cost labour

05:45        South-east Asian countries’ advantage

07:15        Vietnam’s growth opportunity

09:30        Vin Hoan: exporting catfish

11:45        Sourcing local insights

13:30        Indonesia’s move up the value chain

16:15        Clusters of expertise in Malaysia

18:00        Looking beyond tourism in Thailand

20:15        Moving up the value chain

22:15        The attraction of growth investing in southeast Asian

23:15        Paying attention to macroeconomics

24:30        Book recommendation

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Companies mentioned include:

FPT

Hyundai

Samsung Electronics

Vinh Hoan

Is the time ripe for Japanese growth stocks? Donald Farquharson is Baillie Gifford’s head of Japanese equities and knows the market better than most. In the latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he draws on a recent visit to the country to explain why conditions seem favourable for a cohort of domestic companies with long-term mindsets.

Background

There’s a sense of renewed confidence and enthusiasm in the air in Japan. The country is home to the world’s second-largest market for equities after the US, but it doesn’t get a corresponding degree of attention from international investors.

The reason is partly because of the nation’s past weak economic performance. But a recovery is underway, and critically, many of its growth stocks have strong balance sheets, big ambitions and a positive story to tell.

In this episode, Baillie Gifford partner Donald Farquharson draws on his experience of investing in Japan since 1990 to explain why he’s particularly optimistic about the opportunities ahead for a select group of companies. They include the medical equipment maker Olympus, the car components manufacturer DENSO and the takeover advisory service Nihon M&A Center.

He also shares why he thinks some misunderstand Japan and why it’s no coincidence that many of the companies he backs are founder-run.

Resources:

Discovering the unsung superstars of Japanese technology

From Yahoo! to Z Holdings: the evolution of an online pioneer

Japan: the small businesses with big opportunities

Investing in Japan: distance lends perspective

Donald Farquharson’s LinkedIn page

Aiming High: Masayoshi Son, Softbank Group and Disrupting Silicon Valley

Past podcasts

Timecodes:

00.00      Introduction

01:40        Investing in Japan in the 1990s

03:00        ‘Undiscovered’ Japan

03:55        How banks and other businesses changed

05:30      A sustainable recovery?

06:45        An exciting time for growth companies

07:45        Strong balance sheets

08:15        Olympus and endoscopes

09:45        Diversity on the board

11:00      Nihon M&A Center and company takeovers

12:50        DENSO, a major supplier to Toyota and others

14:30        Toyota City, home to one million people

15:35        Competition for car batteries

16:30      Baillie Gifford’s advantage in Japan

17:45        Looking beyond the headlines

18:20      Book recommendation: Masayoshi Son and Aiming High

19:45        Investing in founder-led firms

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Email

Companies mentioned include:

DENSO

Koganei Country Club

Nihon M&S Center

Olympus

Panasonic

ROHM Semiconductor

Softbank

Toyota

What counts as a growth stock is ever-changing. Mark Urquhart shares lessons from 27 years of investing to explain how he decides what to buy and how long to hold as he continues his hunt for outsized returns.

Background:

In 1996, our largest investments included oil and gas companies and high street banks. These days, our biggest holdings specialise in computer chips, ecommerce and biotech. We still pursue long-term growth – companies we believe will reach their potential given time. But we find it in different places.

In this episode, partner Mark Urquhart explains how he tries to identify companies that can grow for a decade or longer, allowing their sales, profits and share prices to compound along the way. He discusses the changing nature of the businesses that qualify and what gives him the confidence to back maverick founders. Other topics he covers in conversation with managing editor Malcolm Borthwick include lessons from the pandemic and the growth companies that most excite him today.

Resources:

The changing face of growth

Four cardinal questions for growth investors

Mark Urquhart’s LinkedIn page

1599: A Year in the Life of William Shakespeare

Past podcasts

Timecodes:

00.00      Introduction

1:20          Joining Baillie Gifford in the pre-Google era

03:45        An evolving attitude to growth companies

05:20        Looking for stronger compound growth

06:35        Investing in Microsoft

08:00        The quest for companies like Hermès

09:55        Learning to be open-minded in Japan

12:10        The importance of mavericks

13:40        How Tesla hit its targets

14:40        Investing in times of crisis

17:35        What the Covid pandemic teaches growth investors

23:05        Today’s most exciting growth companies

25:15        Book recommendation

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Email

Companies mentioned include:

Alphabet (Google)

Apple

ASML

Dexcom

Don Quijote

Hermès

MercadoLibre

Microsoft

Netflix

Peloton

SpaceX

Tesla

Stuart Dunbar explains why a long-term investment approach suits the new types of growth companies that are emerging.

Background:

It’s been five years since Baillie Gifford launched its ‘actual investors’ campaign. It focuses on the firm’s long-term, active approach to growth.

In this episode, the effort’s mastermind Stuart Dunbar joins Malcolm Borthwick to take stock and explain why actual investing is more relevant than ever. As he explains, capital-intensive companies are seeking to transform healthcare, transport and entertainment, among other industries, and they need patient, supportive shareholders to fulfil their potential and deliver strong returns.

Resources:

Actual investors

Let’s talk about actual investing

Baillie Gifford’s investment beliefs

The Premonition by Michael Lewis

The Economics of Fund Management by Ed Moisson

The Golfer’s Journal

Timecodes:

0:00   Introduction

1:30   What is Actual investing?

3:30   Finding great companies

4:20   Investing with autonomy and conviction

6:10   Growth investing

8:00   Companies harnessing technology

9:10   The next decade of growth

12:00   Health innovation

14:45   Interest rates and inflation

19:00   Stress testing portfolios

21:15   Guarding against group think

22:30   Book recommendations

Follow us via:

Twitter

LinkedIn

Email

Companies mentioned include:

Amazon

Apple

ASML

Moderna

Netflix

Samsung

TSMC 

China is transitioning from a property-led economy to one focused on advanced manufacturing. It already leads the world in electric car production and the batteries that power them. And it’s also a growing force in renewables, robotics and biotech. Investment manager Helen Xiong discusses some of the growth companies involved, why concerns about overcapacity seem overstated and why rising trade barriers have implications for stocks traded inside and outside China.

Background:

Helen Xiong is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Global Alpha Team and recently became joint deputy manager of The Monks Investment Trust. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking she discusses why global growth investors can’t ignore China even if they don’t directly own stakes in any of its companies.

She describes how the country has made ‘advanced manufacturing’ a strategic priority, laying the foundations for future growth. This has already yielded results, with companies such as the electric vehicle maker Li Auto and battery producer CATL creating long-term value for shareholders – with the prospect of more to come.

Xiong suggests that ‘rising trade barriers’ are one consequence of Western nations’ seeking to protect domestic industries and discusses how she takes this into account when deciding which companies to back. In addition, she considers the implications of Chinese retaliation and what that might mean for some of the US and Europe’s leading exporters.

Xiong also shares her view on recent stimulus by the Chinese central bank and government agencies, focusing on signals of a shift that could create long-term shareholder value.

Resources:

China: finding the new shoots of growth

Jonathan Haidt: The Righteous Mind – Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion

More from Helen Xiong:

Beyond NVIDIA: investing across the semiconductor ecosystem

Global Alpha Investor Forum 2024

Companies mentioned include:

Li Auto

CATL

Timecodes:

00:00    Introduction

1:30      The advantage of being Chinese, African and European

3:00      Relationships v individualism

5:15      China’s post-Covid economy

7:00      Why China matters to global investors

8:30      Overcapacity: a feature, not a bug

10:15    Brutal competition

10:55    Investing in Li Auto

13:45    Li Xiang’s attention to detail

14:30    The car industry’s iPhone moment

16:25    Trade tariffs

18:20    Potential Chinese retaliation

19:35    Chinese regulators

20:35    Stimulus

21:35    Focusing on long-term shareholder value

22:20    Book choice

23:45    Conclusion

The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour.

Background:

Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure.

Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine.

In addition, Taylor discusses what a second Trump presidency might mean for the sector and why finding standout companies involves travelling off the beaten track.

Resources:

Disruption Week

Building back: the great US infrastructure opportunity

Spotting the winners from the great US infrastructure renaissance

Companies mentioned include:

Advanced Drainage Systems

Eaton

Comfort Systems USA

Martin Marietta

NVIDIA

Stella-Jones

Timecodes:



00:00 Introduction

1:35    Exceptional businesses confronting an exceptional problem

3:20   The US v global infrastructure opportunity

4:35   Donald Trump’s second presidency

6:40   The benefits of patience

7:35   Wild weather

8:45   Investing in Advanced Drainage Systems

11:05  Labour shortages

12:15  Stella-Jones’s wooden telegraph poles

14:05  Tree-spotter specialists

16:15  Martin Marietta’s supply-side advantage

18:55  Recycled aggregates’ limitations

20:15  Finding US infrastructure investments

21:45  Comfort Systems USA and keeping datacentres cool

24:20  “Massive in terms of magnitude of spend and duration”

Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so.

Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings.

Background:

Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering.

From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing features of these pioneering firms is that they’ve been able to choose their shareholders. Nicolier reveals why Baillie Gifford’s patient approach and reputation have helped make us a favoured partner.

He also reveals how deep research helps him and his colleagues embrace the uncertainty that can be involved with backing companies at an earlier stage of growth than many public market stocks. And he introduces some of his team’s most recent investments, including the immersive experience specialist Cosm and the next-generation computing company Tenstorrent.

Resources:

Alexander Nicolier profile

Armand Spitz: seller of stars

Baillie Gifford Private Companies hub

Disruption Week

Private companies: investing in trailblazers

The hidden cost of software

Companies mentioned include:

Bending Spoons

ByteDance

Cosm

Disney

Epic Games

Loft

MercadoLibre

Meta

NuBank

Oddity

SpaceX

Starlink

Tempus

Tencent

Tenstorrent

Tesla

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction

1:30    What’s often misunderstood about private companies

2:40   Relationship building in Brazil and Colombia

3:40   Why reputation matters

5:35   “Look out for a gringo”

6:30   Private markets’ scale

7:00   Our clients’ advantage

9:25   SpaceX and uncertainty

12:40  Dealing with setbacks

13:45  Bending Spoons’ business model

16:50  Cosm’s ‘shared reality’ experience

18:50  Tenstorrent and Jim Keller’s talent magnetism

20:20 The state of the IPO market

21:55  Why Epic Games has stayed private

25:00  Disney’s $1.5bn stake in Epic Games

26:40 “Too big to ignore”

From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth.

Background:

Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge.

In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods.

Companies covered include:

Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia.

Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform.

Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends.

HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path.

Resources:

Case study: Maliga

Nubank’s Beyond Access study

Positive Conversations 2024

The Song of the Cell

Trip Notes: Brazil (UK version / Ex-UK version)

Companies mentioned include:

Chime

Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Grab

HDFC Bank

MercadoLibre

Nubank

Remitly

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

02:05  From the British Army to impact investing

03:40  A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world

04:25  The different types of financial inclusion

05:40  Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness

06:45  Volatile repayment rates

07:35  Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products

09:05  Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies

10:25   Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes

12:45   Nubank’s Mexican banking licence

14:15   Ensuring growth comes with impact

15:20   Grab’s loans and insurance

16:40   Grab’s data-driven approach to risk

19:45   The fast growth of remittances

21:25   Remitly’s cheaper money transfers

22:35  Gaining market share from Western Union

23:40  HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network

24:55  Financial inclusion in advanced economies

26:55  The ‘lucrative customers of the future’

28:15   Book choice

Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade.

Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage.

Background:

Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team.

In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend.

The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including:

• the lithium miner SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile), which is set to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand for the critical ingredient to electric car batteries and other energy storage systems
• the South Korean high bandwidth memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, whose products are critical to training artificial intelligence systems at speed
• the ‘super-app’ operator Kaspi.kz, which provides everything from bill payments, banking and travel bookings to shopping, maps and messaging
•  the Singaporean ecommerce, fintech and gaming conglomerate Sea, whose chief executive has ambitions to extend into further sectors
• China’s biggest coffee chain, Luckin Coffee, which is giving the country’s 1.4 billion citizens a passion for the beverage with its ever-changing menu of inventive recipes

In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity.

Resources:

Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world

Emerging markets: our philosophy

Emerging markets: rethinking the opportunity

Finding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast)

Luckin Coffee: looking forward

Kaspi's super-app

South-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast)

SQM: powering the future

The Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson

Companies mentioned include:

Kaspi.kz

Luckin Coffee

Sea

SK Hynix

SQM

Timecodes:

00:00  Introduction

01:35  Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong

03:15  Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond

05:05  US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence

07:25  Rising trade between emerging market nations

08:35  Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines

10:15  The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar

11:40  Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors

12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities

14:45  Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors

16:25  SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert

17:55  Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity

18:45  SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI

20:40  Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app

21:40  Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond

23:00  Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture

24:30  Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity

25:25  Luckin’s taste for invention

26:40  Investing in China amid a trade clash

28:50  The risk of underexposure

29:40  Book choice

30:55  Investing in Africa