Eric and Eliot welcome back Phillips Payson O'Brien to Shield of the Republic. Phil is the author of The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini and Hitler - How War Made Them and How They Made War (New York, Dutton, 2024) as well as the co-author with Eliot of The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure, a new report from CSIS. They discuss Phil's earlier work on World War II that focused on air and seapower and the competition in industrial production between the Allies and the Axis, the formative role of World War I experiences on all of these World War II leaders, the role of will as opposed to a focus on material production as a differentiator between the two sides in World War 2, Hitler's (and others') "magical thinking" about strategy, Churchill's understudied role as Minister of Munitions during World War 1, FDR's role in 1916 Naval Preparedness program, Stalin's (and Putin's) historical mythologizing, the reasons for analytic failure at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war, and prospects for escalation (and strategy) between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran.

The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini, and Hitler--How War Made Them and How They Made War
https://a.co/d/14ip0sY

How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II
https://a.co/d/erLbwrf

Report Launch: The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure
https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-russia-ukraine-war-and-study-analytic-failure

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot provide their thumbnail review of the Trump-Harris debate and then welcome their special guest Lindsay Chervinsky, the Executive Director of the George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon and the author the new book Making the Presidency: John Adams and the Precedents that Forged a Republic (New York: Oxford University Press, 2024). They discuss the role of the January 6th insurrection in sparking her interest in the peaceful transfer of power in the United States and the first instance of a transfer via election in 1800. She discusses how this perspective provided new insight into understanding John Adams's Presidency which is frequently depicted as a failure but which successfully resolved the Quasi-War with France in the late 1790s, established the norms of civilian oversight of the military and Presidential command of foreign policy and control of the executive departments of government. They discuss the political intriguing of Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson who sought to undermine Adams, the fears of a standing army, the extremism of the "Arch Federalists" and the violent rhetorical excesses of factionalism in the party, the role of the French Revolution and immigration in American politics in the early Republic, and ultimately how Adams put country over party and personal political success to establish the norms of a peaceful transfer of power. Finally, she discusses how the death throes of the Federalist Party (and later the Whigs) might shed light on possible futures for the GOP.

Making the Presidency: John Adams and the Precedents That Forged the Republic:
https://a.co/d/3v539F7

What History Tells Us Might Happen to the Republican Party:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/history-political-parties-republican-gop

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot host Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies based in Bologna, Italy. They discuss Sergey’s personal story of growing up in Sakhalin in the Soviet Union, living in China, becoming an historian and gaining access to documentary sources in both countries that were heretofore unavailable and which shed new light on the history of the Cold War. The discussion covers ideology vs. realpolitik in explaining Soviet foreign policy, the USSR as both a status quo and revolutionary power, the contingency of historical events, the psychology of Russian and Chinese leaders, the Sino-Soviet rivalry and competition for leadership of the communist world, who was responsible for the outbreak of the Cold War, and how Russia’s search for legitimacy, equality with the US and greatness, deeply rooted in Russian imperial and Soviet history has re-emerged in new forms under Vladimir Putin.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot dissect the war in Ukraine and discuss Eliot's articles in the Atlantic and Foreign Affairs. What is the new phase of the war? Are Russian forces exhausted, what is their strategy? How will the Ukrainians counter? Is the Biden package enough? Eliot asks Eric about the lessons of Ukraine for other parts of the world and his Bulwark article on ending the policy of strategic ambiguity for Taiwan. Should we settle in for a long war of attrition?

Articles Discussed:

• The Return of Statecraft: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-04-19/return-statecraft
• This Is the War’s Decisive Moment: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-russia-war-consequences/629541/
• The Lessons of Ukraine for Taiwan—and the U.S.: https://www.thebulwark.com/the-lessons-of-ukraine-for-taiwan-and-the-u-s/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eliot and Eric welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss security in the Indo-Pacific, the role of Australia, the AUKUS partnership, John Quincy Adams and U.S. foreign policy—do the "restrainers" read Adams correctly?—and the role of literature in understanding history.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eliot and Eric host Professor Elizabeth Samet of the US Military Academy to discuss her new book Looking for the Good War: American Amnesia and the Violent Pursuit of Happiness. They examine the role of mythology in justifying US military action.

Was World War II the "Good War" and was the "Greatest Generation" different from subsequent generations of Americans caught up in fighting the nation's wars? Does de-mythologizing war lead to moral equivalence? Is there a role for myth-making in democracies in wartime to inspire the sacrifices necessary to fight wars and to console the families of the fallen?

A spirited discussion of very difficult topics.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

The views Elizabeth Samet expresses on this podcast do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

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Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric talk with ancient historian extraordinaire Barry Strauss. They discuss his new book on Antony, Cleopatra, Octavian, and the Battle of Actium which served as the foundation of the Roman Empire. They discuss what a study of the ancients can tell us about statecraft in general and specifically how it can illuminate statecraft today as well as the current state of intellectual life in the academy.

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Eric and Eliot consider the first month of Russia-Ukraine War and Eliot's Atlantic article on why it has been so hard for some observers to admit that Ukraine is winning. They also talk about how the Russian military's failures to achieve its objectives might lead to stalemate, and how we should think about the risks of escalation and what is a theory of victory.

Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eric and Eliot host British author and historian Andrew Roberts and discuss his revisionist account of King George III and how a good man was nonetheless the monarch under whom the American colonies were lost.

They discuss his new podcast Secrets of Statecraft, the most important characteristics of leadership in wartime, and the role Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is playing today and its Churchillian and Reaganite overtones. They also talk about Vladimir Putin, the role of individuals in history, and more.

Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eric and Eliot host Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute. They discuss civil-military relations, Joe Biden as a war President, the struggle over foreign policy in the GOP, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on the trajectory of U.S. national security policy. All three endorse a trillion dollar defense budget.

Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eric and Eliot discuss Putin's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, what Eliot heard at the Munich Security Conference and in Poland last week, as well as what the West's theory of victory should be in the conflict over Ukraine, and how should the U.S. and the West more broadly should treat Russia now that it has become a pariah state.

Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eliot and Eric host CSIS's Jude Blanchette to discuss Neo-Maosim in China, the impact of Xi Jinping's personalistic authoritarianism on China's domestic and foreign policy, the Xi-Putin joint statement last week, and prospects for Sino-Russian relations, as well as Chinese science fiction and what it might tell us about Chinese society.

Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eliot returns from travels to discuss the secret origin story of the Shield of the Republic podcast, a review of the Biden administration's national security policy in its first year, the difficulties that the President has faced in articulating a foreign policy, the deficiencies of his national security apparatus, the impact of the catastrophic departure from Afghanistan, the AUKUS decision, and the effort to deter Russian President Putin. Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eric is rejoined by Eliot who has been reconnoitering his old stomping grounds in Boston. They discuss a series of upcoming elections, including in the UK on July 4 where the Tory Party (the oldest political party in the world) looks to be obliterated by a Labour landslide, France where President Macron's "party" looks likely to be squeezed out by Marine Le Pen's renovated version of the old anti-immigrant National Front and a New Popular Front of Leftist parties, and in Iran where reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has emerged a real threat to conservative forces divided among Saaed Jalili, the former hard-line nuclear negotiator, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Qalibaf, and a gaggle of other conservatives amidst broad public apathy and disinterest in the election. They discuss the factors underpinning what seems like a global anti-incumbent wave. They also discuss the prospects for a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the prospects for a second Trump term as President.  Eliot believes that while a terrible prospect a second Trump Presidency might not be totally catastrophic both domestically and internationally while Eric argues the case for pessimism.

Scheduling Note: Shield of the Republic will be taking a two-week break for the Independence Day holiday.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Mystery guest host (Bill Kristol) joins Eric for a discussion with Johns Hopkins SAIS Professor Hal Brands about his new book the Twilight Struggle. They discuss the lessons of America's cold war strategic competition with the USSR for today's era of strategic competition with China and Russia—the role of strategy, economic competition, political warfare, and more. Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Historian, journalist, and essayist Anne Applebaum joins Eric and Eliot from Poland. They discuss Vladimir Putin's grand strategy, the conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, why the "bad guys are winning," as well as the state of American democracy and the January 6 insurrection. We hope all our listeners had a safe, healthy and happy holiday season and a happy new year. Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Guest Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute and Center for American Progress joins Eric and Eliot to discuss public opinion and foreign policy, the lack of support for policies of "restraint" in polling, American exceptionalism, connecting policy debates to the concerns of everyday Americans, the deficiencies of the Biden Administration's "technocratic managerialism" and the need for a new inclusive narrative to frame strategic competition with China. Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Eric and Eliot discuss three dangerous men (Russian General Valeriy Gerasimov, the late Iranian IRGC leader Ghassem Soleimani and PRC Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia) with Seth Jones who has written a new book on irregular or, if you prefer, political warfare. They discuss the active conflict in this domain in which the US finds itself with Russia, China, and Iran as Russia's use of private military companies to serve as proxies in conflicts around the world. They examine what alternative options existed to the Biden Administration's approach to Afghanistan, the role of public opinion and the future trajectory of the country. Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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Former National Security Council Senior Director for Europe (and star impeachment witness) Fiona Hill is this week's guest discussing her book, There is Nothing For You Here, her service in the Trump Administration, the mortification of Trump's press conference with Putin at Helsinki (and transient thoughts of faking a seizure to make it stop) as well as the causes of and remedies for authoritarian populism. Eric Edelman's essay for the Ronald Reagan Institute: The Great Communicator and the Beginning of the End of the Cold War Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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In this episode Eliot and Eric explore why Woodrow Wilson was unable to end World War I in 1916 despite the exhaustion of Britain, France, and Germany (the main combatants on the Western Front), how the lack of an adequate staffing may have contributed, the rise of a staffing culture inside the US government and the more recent loss of staffing and strategic competence, the role of reviewing past policy failures, the work of the House January 6 Committee investigation, and prospects for an Afghanistan and COVID-19 independent commissions. Our special guest is Philip Zelikow, the White Burkett Miller Professor of History at the University of Virginia, the former Executive Director of the 9/11 Commission and author of the recent book, The Road Less Travelled: The Secret Battle to End the Great War, 1916-1917 (New York: Public Affairs Press, 2021). Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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A discussion of why the war in Afghanistan was in General Mark Milley’s words “a strategic failure,” why the Afghan government failed to inspire Afghans to fight for their own country, and the legacy of former ambassador and peace agreement negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad. Our special guest is Carter Malkasian, who was a political advisor to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Commanding General of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and is the author of The American War in Afghanistan (New York: Oxford University Press, 2021). Shield of the Republic is co-sponsored by the Miller Center.

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Eric welcomes Professor Christopher Lynch, Chair of the Political Science Department at Missouri State University, the editor and translator of the most recent edition of Machiavelli's The Art of War and author of Machiavelli on War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2023). They discuss Machiavelli as statesman, military leader and diplomat and Machiavelli as Political Philosopher, The Art of War as a treatise on combined arms warfighting, Machiavelli as the father of modern grand strategy, his views on war as revealed not only in the Art of War but his posthumously published works The Prince and The Discourses on Livy, whether Machiavelli was a "teacher of evil," his role as one of the progenitors of "realism" in international affairs, whether his teachings prefigure our modern notions of strategic competition between authoritarian states and liberal democracies and "the Prince's Dilemma" -- or what is the proper relationship between political authorities and military leaders, and both the time-bound and timeless nature of Machiavell's arguments.

https://a.co/d/0dxfml05

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Eliot back from scenic Lake Champlain where Eliot communed with the spirit of Benedict Arnold. They host Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and Ambassador (ret.) Robert Blackwill, the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. They discuss Fontaine and Blackwell's new book Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power (New York: Oxford University Press, 2024). They review the origins and history of "The Pivot" to Asia during the Obama Administration, the reasons that this rebalancing of U.S. power and policy to the East was not implemented, the various efforts to do so subsequently and the reasons that they too did not succeed, the trade-offs among U.S. responsibilities for security in Europe and the Middle East and re-orienting to the Indo-Pacific, the need for a substantial increase in defense spending, the lack of a real trade policy for East Asia, the balance between diplomacy and deterrence and whether or not productive diplomacy with an autocratic regime and leader like Xi Jinping is even possible.

https://a.co/d/3VvFaeh

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric hosts New York Times Chief Washington Correspondent David Sanger, author of The Inheritance, Confront and Conceal, The Perfect Weapon and most recently New Cold Wars:  China's Rise, Russia's Invasion and America's Struggle to Defend the West. They discuss the underlying assumptions that led American policymakers to underestimate the rise and threat of great power competition, whether hawks or doves have been more correct in analyzing the course of events over the past 15 years, the tensions, both past and present, in the Biden-Zelensky relationship, the Biden Administration's efforts at "escalation management" during the war in Ukraine, Russian nuclear threats and how seriously to take them, the question of whether the US and China have been engaged in an action-reaction spiral of distrust or whether Chinese actions have unfolded against a backdrop of American complacency, the unprecedented challenge of deterring two nuclear peers and the Biden Administration's Iran policy which seems to be on autopilot.

New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West: https://a.co/d/9nTIoD3

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot ruminate on the past 100 episodes of Shield of the Republic looking back retrospectively on big takeaways about US national security since the show began in September 2021 in the shadow of the catastrophic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. They talk about President Biden's limitations as a communicator and the broader difficulties of communicating a coherent strategic message in our current fractionated media and information ecosystem. They discuss the bandwidth difficulties for any American administration's dealing with more than one and a half crises at a time and the specific problem of dealing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza at the same time and touch on the issues left unaddressed -- like having a policy to deal with Iran's growing stock of low enriched uranium at the 60% level. They contrast the troubles on campus today with the university upheavals of the late 1960s and early 1970s and the decline of the academic discipline of history and the catastrophic collapse in history enrollments in Universities. They discuss Eliot's article in Foreign Affairs on a theory of victory for Ukraine and the dangers of a Trump election victory as well as the necessity of loosening the US (and German) imposed restrictions on the use of weapons by Ukraine against legitimate military and logistical targets inside Russia.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theory-victory-ukraine

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/university-gaza-protests-squirm/678437/

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-cant-win-if-it-cant-shoot?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot returns from the Lennert Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia and he and Eric are joined by Bret Stephens, columnist for the New York Times, founding Editor-in-Chief of SAPIR: A Journal of Jewish Conversation, former Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Post, Pulitzer Prize Winner for Commentary at the Wall Street Journal and author of America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder, (New York:  Sentinel, 2014). They discuss the war in Gaza, Israel's apparent lack of a strategy, the ICC decision to seek warrants for PM Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant for war crimes, the anti-Israel bias of the UN system, the spread of anti-semitism on campus and beyond, the return of isolationism of both the left and the right, the prospects for this fall's election and the political failures of the Biden Administration, and the prospects for American resilience in the face of all this darkness.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric hosts Dale Copeland, Professor of International Relations in the Department of Politics at UVA and faculty senior fellow at the Miller Center. Dale is the author of A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China, (Princeton, NJ:  Princeton University Press, 2024). They discuss Dale's dynamic realist theory of international relations which seeks to meld "offensive realism" which sees states as power maximizing entities in an anarchic world and "defensive realism" which sees states as acting to modulate power maximizing in order to avoid a spiral into conflict. Dale contrasts this theory to liberal institutional theories that see foreign policies as driven by internal dynamics including ideology. They discuss his account of American foreign policy which sees US statesmen as successful practitioners of realpolitik in a way that has advanced the U.S. national interest and created what Dale calls the "FDR legacy" or the liberal international order over which the U.S. has presided since the end of World War II. They talk about analysts who are either China "pessimists" who believe a conflict between the U.S. and China is unavoidable and China "optimists" who think it may be possible to avoid conflict. They discuss China's tightening relations with Russia, whether or not the U.S.-China relationship will be a bipolar one, whether or not we have seen "peak China," Xi's recent trip to Europe, how one would know enough to conclude that China was a threat that require containment and much more about the U.S.-China relationship.

A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China:
https://a.co/d/8GWjZVd

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes back Robert W. Kagan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and editor at large at the Washington Post, to the show to discuss Kagan's new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism is Tearing America Apart - Again (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2024). They discuss the origins of America's liberal tradition in the radicalism of the American Revolution. How the American Revolution differed from the French, the persistence of an anti-liberal tradition that from its inception was wrapped up with the defense of slavery and white supremacy. The persistence of that anti-liberal tradition in the 19th Century, today's Catholic integralism and Christian nationalism and the tensions between those schools of thought. The connections between anti-liberalism and America First and the connection to anti-semitism, left-wing anti-liberalism and the from whence the threat to American democracy is greatist, the stakes in the 2024 election and the global struggle against liberal democracy by Russian and Chinese autocrats.

Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart--Again:
https://a.co/d/hkh6fxJ

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/06/china-russia-republican-party-relations/678271/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric welcome Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of The National Interest, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, and author of America Last: The Right's Century Long Romance with Foreign Dictators. They discuss the origin story of "America First" during the First World War when critic and satirist H.L. Mencken and German-American propagandist (and paid agent) George Sylvester Viereck led the charge against American intervention in the Great War and how both played roles in the 30s and early 40s America First movement to prevent FDR from aiding the Allies. They discuss the hostility of America Firsters to the liberal tradition in America, its connection to anti-Semitism, William F. Buckley's role and evolution on anti-Semitism, Jeanne Kirkpatrick's views on authoritarianism and totalitarianism and the left's own tradition of admiration for tyrants as well as how these tendencies are reflected in today's MAGA movement.

America Last: The Right's Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators
https://a.co/d/91qv3YA

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot pay homage to Daily Telegraph journalist and podcaster David Knowles who was the driving force behind the podcast, Ukraine: The Latest, on which Eliot has appeared several times. They also discuss the intensifying cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea including the just announced intensified schedule of joint Sino-Russian military exercises and Iran's transfer of medium range Fateh 360 ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. They consider the historical analogies for this type of alliance/coalition and, in particular, the ideological underpinnings of the alignment, as well as the tightening institutional links among these nations. They discuss the new JINSA report on Iran's advancing nuclear program as well as the challenges facing U.S. extended nuclear deterrence. They also discuss increasing instances of state failure around the world in Sudan, Lebanon, Venezuela, Somalia, the Sahel and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the relationship of this phenomenon to the retrograde of American power and that of its allies in Britain and France around the world. Finally, they discuss the Marquis de Custine's writings on Russian national character as well as takedowns of Tucker Carlson's holocaust denying, Churchill bashing guest Daryl Cooper.

Eliot's Latest in the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/09/british-foreign-secretary-david-lammy-israel-speech/679729/

JINSA's Iran Nuclear Report:
https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/JINSA-Why-the-Next-President-Should-Start-Worrying-and-Fear-the-Iran-Bomb-2.pdf

Sergei Lebedev on Navalny:
https://libertiesjournal.com/articles/the-heroic-illusion-of-alexei-navalny/

Cathy Young on Tucker Carlson/Churchill:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/tucker-carlson-and-the-beer-hall-putz-darryl-cooper

Andrew Roberts on Churchill:
https://freebeacon.com/culture/no-churchill-was-not-the-villain/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Illia Ponomarenko, a Ukrainian journalist, formerly with the Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent (of which he was a founder), and the author of I Will Show You it Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv (New York:  Bloomsbury Publishing, 2024). They discuss how he came to write the book, the buildup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Russia's over the top rhetoric and bad assumptions about the nature of Ukraine and the likely course of the war, the criminal nature of Putin's regime, the Russian failure at the battle of Kyiv and whether that means Russia has lost the war, the delay in U.S. assistance, his own experience in the U.S. and why it made him optimistic that the U.S. would do the right thing, the impact of U.S. and western assistance on the war, the Belarus and Istanbul negotiations in March 2022 that some have alleged might have ended the war (spoiler alert: the Russians were not negotiating in good faith), the current battlefield situation, and how this war ends. You can follow Illia on Twitter (X) @IAPonomarenko and you can support his work at http://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger.  

I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv:
https://a.co/d/3QxgSKd

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot returns from his travels and provides a trip report on his visit to Ukraine. He and Eric discuss the state of the fight, the challenges that the Ukrainians face with a hiatus in U.S. assistance, the progress that Russia has made in battlefield adaptation, Ukrainian defense innovation, the U.S. efforts to limit Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and military bases inside Russia proper, and the recent article in Foreign Affairs that outlines the April-May 2022 negotiations between Russia and Ukraine that failed to yield an end to the war. They discuss Iran's massive, complex uav and missile assault on Israel, the deterioration of deterrence and Israeli options for resetting deterrence in response.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine

https://x.com/dszeligowski/status/1780183950507262201

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/04/kyiv-spring-ukraine-military-aid/678013/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/04/iran-israel-coalition-malevolent/678069/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2014/12/10/the-kind-of-thing-crisis/

https://archive.org/details/the-weekly-standard-2014-03-17/page/n11/mode/2up

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes friend of Shield of the Republic Hal Brands back to the show. Hal is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the editor of a new book, War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy and the Return of A Fractured World (Baltimore, MD:  Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024), a weekly columnist at Bloomberg.com and also has a recent article on the Foreign Affairs website. They discuss the origins of the new book and 6 overarching themes that emerged from the essays by the distinguished contributors to the volume. They also discuss why America's unique system of alliances may obscure for Americans the potential for disruption that tightening relations among authoritarian regimes presents to the global order and the rise and future of isolationism in the Republican party.

https://muse.jhu.edu/book/122782/pdf

https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/oa_edited_volume/chapter/3881912/pdf

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/new-autocratic-alliances

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Will Selber, Military Affairs Fellow with the Bulwark and a 20 year veteran of U.S. military intelligence with multiple tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition to his writing at the Bulwark, you can read Will's substack - Grumpy Combat Veteran - and listen to the podcast he co-hosts, Shoulder to Shoulder. They discuss the recent IS-KP attack on the Crocus City Theater in Moscow, the terrorist threat from both IS-KP and al Qaeda operating from Afghanistan, the difficulties of establishing an over-the-horizon counter-terrorist capability for CENTCOM, the Trump and Biden decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, the failure to hold the Taliban to the terms of the Doha agreement, the repetition of US failures in VIetnam in training the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), a post-mortem on the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the reputational damage to the U.S. for abandoning its Afghan allies, the importance of military introspection and accountability for some of the failures in Afghanistan, and the ongoing impact of the Afghanistan debacle on military recruiting for the all volunteer force (AVF).

https://grumpycombatveteran.substack.com

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/al-qaeda-in-afghanistan-how-serious-threat

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/president-biden-should-talk-about-afghanistan

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/deeper-reason-for-military-recruitment-woes

Eliot and Eric welcome CNN Chief National Security Correspondent Jim Sciutto to the show. The recipient of multiple awards for his journalism, including the Emmy, Edward R. Murrow, and George Polk awards he is also the author of The Shadow War, The Madman Theory, and recently The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War (New York: Dutton, 2024). They discuss why as a journalist he writes books, how the shooting war in Ukraine changed the perspective of both journalists and government officials about the danger of great power competition, the role of frontline states like Finland and Estonia and understanding the threat of Russian revanchism, Jim's reporting on the potential for Russian use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield in the fall of 2022 and whether the threat was genuine or an example of Russian use of information operations for "reflexive control," the transformation of Taiwan's defense posture and the threat of disruption and damage to US alliances in a second Trump Presidency.

The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War:
https://a.co/d/1RVHvZ4

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot grills Eric on three recent articles identifying some big problems in U.S. foreign policy.  What will happen once Iran is nuclear armed? Will the Ayatollahs undergo "nuclear learning" as some political scientists suggest or will they become more emboldened (not to seek a suicidal nuclear armageddon but to unleash their proxies -- Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, the Houthis, etc)?  Should the U.S. be ready to launch a pre-emptive or prevent strike? Should it accelerate covert efforts at regime change? What about NATO decision-making? Now that the alliance is made up of 32 rather than 12 members should the decision-making move away from the consensus rules that have governed it since 1949? What should be done to avoid Hungary, Turkey or Slovakia from blocking consensus and acting as a Trojan horse inside the alliance? How tough should the U.S. be willing to be with putative allies, particularly in a wartime scenario? Finally, has the Trumpist turn to "America First" isolationism in the GOP rendered it unfit as a political instrument for conservatives who remain committed to internationalism and the US role in upholding the global order?  Is it time for a new conservative internationalist political party?

https://thedispatch.com/article/when-iran-goes-nuclear/ 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/iran-protesters-want-regime-change

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/natos-decision-process-has-an-achilles-heel/

https://sapirjournal.org/friends-and-foes/2024/03/republican-isolationists/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Peter Pomerantsev, British journalist, senior fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University, television producer and author of Nothing Is True and Everything is Possible, This is Not Propaganda, and his most recent book How to Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler (New York:  Public Affairs Press, 2024). They discuss the story of Sefton Delmer, the bilingual British journalist who headed up covert propaganda operations for the Political Warfare Executive during World War II. They touch on what makes for effective propaganda, whether idealistic appeals or trying to reach people via crasser motives is more effective, the morality of counter-propaganda efforts, distinguishing fact from fiction, people's desire to escape responsibility for government policies, creating permission structures for people subject to effective propaganda to think differently about what they are being told and the lessons from Delmer's efforts for today's world -- defeating Putin's propaganda in Russia and abroad and breaking through the cult-like propaganda of MAGA.

How to Win an Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler:
https://a.co/d/8LbiEqJ

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Finnish Professor Kimmo Rentala, Emeritus Professor of Political History at the University of Helsinki to the show to discuss his recently released book, How Finland Survived Stalin: From Winter War to Cold War (Yale University Press, 2024). The discuss Stalin's plans for Finland, Finnish resistance to the Soviet Union, Sweden's role in Finland's survival during the twentieth century, changes in access to Russian archival material from the immediate post-Soviet period to Putin's Russia, and what Ukraine can learn from Finland's experience with a large hostile neighboring country.

How Finland Survived Stalin: From Winter War to Cold War
https://a.co/d/hz6MDU5

Eric and Eliot inaugurate the first video episode of Shield of the Republic by welcoming former Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) to discuss her New York Times best-selling book Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning (New York: Little, Brown, 2023). They discuss her assessment of the impact on public discourse and public perceptions of the hearings and final report of the Congressional committee to investigate the January 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol. They discuss the domestic and international consequences of a potential second Donald Trump Presidency, particularly its impact on the ability of the US to exercise international leadership in a world beset by aggressive, authoritarian regimes in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. They talk about the intellectual corruption on display at CPAC where would-be dictators were welcomed and the prospective end of democracy in America was cheered by the participants. Finally they consider the future of conservative internationalism and the Republican Party and whether or not the GOP is salvageable or whether a new conservative party needs to arise.

Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning
https://a.co/d/aTTN4iF

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot bemoan the death/murder of Alexei Navalny, Tucker Carlson's performative buffoonery in Moscow, and the irresponsibility of the Republican House of Representatives. They also welcome Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University and author of How the War Was Won, The Second Most Powerful Man in the World, and the forthcoming book The Strategists. They discuss the reasons for overestimation of Russia at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the prospects for Ukraine with and without US aid, what a Ukrainian victory would look like, the situation in Avdiivka, whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker and what a Russian defeat would entail. They also discuss the prospects for the transatlantic alliance if Trump is re-elected, the recent change of command in Ukraine and Phil reflects on what historians bring to the discussion of war today.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes back Eliot from his trip to the High North in Svalbard, Norway where he was attending a workshop on Nordic-Baltic views on European security. Eliot discusses the views of the Nordic countries vis a vis Russia, the role of climate change in the Arctic, and great power competition in that region. They also discuss Eliot's recent Atlantic piece on What Kamala Harris might face with regards to foreign policy if she is elected in November notably including: the dangerous world we face, the chronic underfunding of the nation's defense budget, and the priors of the Obama and Biden alumni who will likely populate a Harris administration. They discuss the lack of debate about national security issues so far in the Presidential campaign and the Reaganesque "mood music" on defense at the DNC with speeches on Thursday night by the Bulwark's own Adam Kinzinger, former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta quoting Reagan, and finally the Vice President's commitment to maintaining the strongest and most lethal military in the world. They discuss the British Foreign Secretary's statement announcing the suspension of some 30 odd licenses for British defense goods to Israel, its spectacular bad timing and what it might portend for the US-UK "special relationship." Finally, they discuss the situation in Ukraine including the Kursk incursion by Ukrainian forces, the marked but costly progress of Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, the meaning of "strategic" terrain and what the Ukrainian theory of victory might be.

Eliot's Piece in The Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/09/kamala-harris-foreign-policy-challenge/679678/

Phillips OBrien on Strategy:
https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/strategic-is-more-than-lines-on-a

Occupied Trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfqRRHaFyJg

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Counter to type Eric welcomes Eliot back from his travels with a discussion of the positive things going on in the world. They discuss the strong response of the European allies to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, including the German Zeitenwende and the increase in German defense spending, they discuss the Franco-American relationship and the fact that France has emerged over the past twenty years as a much stronger and capable ally, the discuss the Ukrainian naval performance in the Black Sea and the return of grain exports to almost pre-war levels, they talk about Tucker Carlson beclowning himself in his interview with Putin and that latter's unconcealed contempt for his interviewer, they talk about the PRC's muted reaction to President Lai's election in Taiwan and the seeming slight and perhaps transitory improvement in US-China relations, as well as the good work of the Biden Administration in strengthening the links among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific. They discuss the indictment of Jair Bolsonaro and the success of Ecuador's President in fighting drug cartels and gangs. Eric also apologizes to Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan for misattributing an article to his journal that actually appeared on the Council of Foreign Relations website.

https://www.ft.com/content/51cf54ed-55df-4369-bdef-6f98be17d26c

sonofadiplomat.substack.com

https://www.sgdsn.gouv.fr/files/files/20240212_NP_SGDSN_VIGINUM_PORTAL-KOMBAT-NETWORK_ENG_VF.pdf

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes former Supreme Allied Commander (SACEUR) of NATO General Philip Breedlove.  General Breedlove is one of the nation's preeminent military strategists having served as commander of US Air Forces in Europe as well as Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force. He is currently a Distinguished Professor of Practice at the Sam Nunn School at Georgia Tech (General Breedlove's alma mater). They discuss the state of play in Ukraine, the successes and failures of Ukraine's counter-offensive (including successes in the air and naval domains), the prospects for renewed Russian offensive operations in the direction of Kupyansk, the longer term trajectory of the conflict absent the supplemental aid bill currently before the U.S. Congress, the role that different weapons systems can make on the battlefield, how the U.S. administration has assessed the escalation risks, the long term consequences of defeat and the prospect of a reconstituted Russian threat to NATO, as well as the travails of Israel fighting in Gaza.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia

Eric and Eliot (joining from the Iberian Peninsula) discuss the Iranian strike on US soldiers located at Tower 22 in Jordan and the Administration's options for retaliation. They consider the argument's in Eliot's Atlantic piece suggesting that the US needs an entirely new strategy for Iran, the nature of the regime, and the difficulty American government officials  have with ideological antagonists motivated by religious impulses. They discuss the current situation in Ukraine and the divisions between President Zelensky and Commander of the Armed Services General Zaluzhny as well as the Russo-centric assumptions of American politicians and policymakers. They discuss the potential for European states to fill the gap in material support to Ukraine created by the US political stalemate. They also consider the ICJ genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel and the scandal surrounding UNWRA workers participating in the Hamas October 7 assault and hostage taking in Israel. Finally they discuss the role of Antonio Salazar's corporatist, authoritarian (but not Fascist) dictatorship in Portugal.
  
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/iran-problem/677282/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2015-12-14/time-get-tough-tehran

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-04-13/next-iranian-revolution

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/iran-protesters-want-regime-change

https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-Aftermath-Forging-Strategy-toward/dp/0817921540#customerReviews

https://www.amazon.com/Salazar-Dictator-Who-Refused-Die/dp/1787383881

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot are joined by General David Petraeus and historian Andrew Roberts to discuss their New York Times bestselling book Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine (N.Y.:  Harper, 2023). They discuss how and why the two authors came together to write the book, the link between the causes of war and the manner in which wars are waged, the nature of regimes and the advantages that authoritarians have when fighting against liberal democracies, the challenge of maintaining liberal values in the midst of intense warfare, the influence of history on the waging of war and vice-versa, the way in which military commanders should provide their best military advice to Presidents, and the necessity and likelihood of fielding a generation of general/flag officers who are intellectually equipped to deal with the extraordinarily complex and dangerous international environment that the nation faces in the remind of this century.

Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine:
https://a.co/d/aNagP0I

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome David Stahel, Senior Lecturer at the University South Wales, Canberra and author of a multivolume history of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union and other works on World War II on the eastern front. They discuss the historiography of World War II on the eastern front, the new primary sources he has tapped for his historical work, the sheer scale of the combat operations and the virtues of writing operational military history (as opposed to concentrating at the grand strategic level), the tensions inside the German high command between Hitler and the Army command as well as the rivalries among the army commanders on the eastern front. They cover the issue of how professional vs. how ideologically committed to Nazism the military commanders were, how the war turned from a war of maneuver to a war of attrition that doomed Nazi Germany to military failure and the echoes of history that can be found in the war that Russia is waging in Ukraine today.

Operation Barbarossa and Germany's Defeat in the East:
https://a.co/d/egI7OKv

Kiev 1941: Hitler's Battle for Supremacy in the East:
https://a.co/d/5xRmorZ

Hitler's Panzer Generals: Guderian, Hoepner, Reinhardt and Schmidt Unguarded:
https://a.co/d/8d3Xw2F

The Battle for Moscow:
https://a.co/d/h9Idyjf

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Yaroslav Trofimov, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent of the Wall Street Journal and author of the new book Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence (N.Y.: Penguin Press, 2024) released on January 9, 2024. They discuss Putin's rationale for the war, his long-standing views (shared by many Russians that are dismissive and disdainful of Ukrainian national identity), why some Russians (like Igor Girkin and Yevgeniy Prigozhin who had some actual knowledge of Ukraine) had more realistic views of Ukraine's ability to inflict damage on the Russian army, the potential of a negotiated settlement in the spring of 2022 and why negotiations failed, the tensions between President Zelenskiy and Commander of the Armed Forces General Zaluzhny, the fate of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the role of the high command in making decisions like the defense of Bakhmut, the views of the Ukrainian military about U.S. military advice and training, the Biden Administration's self-limiting fears of potential nuclear escalation by Putin and the consequences of the hesitant provision of advanced military equipment to the Ukrainians as well as the likely consequences and dangers of failing to pass the Supplemental Aid legislation currently before Congress and resuming the flow of military aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Eliot back from his long travels who reports back on his trip with a bipartisan delegation of national security experts to Israel and recounts the ongoing trauma that both the Israeli public and national security elite are experiencing over the attacks on October 7 and the ongoing saga of the hostages. He describes the comprehensive nature of the failures (intelligence, political, operational and tactical) that Israel experienced that day and over the next several weeks as well as the resilience with which Israeli society and the IDF have reacted. They discuss the adjournment of politics in Israel while the war is underway, how long that will last and Bibi's political prospects in the long run (spoiler alert: Eliot thinks Bibi will go at some point). They discuss the rules of engagement, how Israel is fighting the war, the prospects for a ceasefire and hostage exchange, the dangers of escalation in the north with Hezbollah, and the links that Eliot believes exist between the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine and the prospective conflict over Taiwan.

https://sonofadiplomat.substack.com/p/2024-a-year-of-global-consequence

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric visits the Miller Center and joins John Owen IV, the Amb. Henry J. and Mrs. Marion R. Taylor Professor of Politics, and a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Culture and the Miller Center for Public Affairs and Marc Selverstone, the Miller Center's director of presidential studies, co-chair of the Center’s Presidential Recordings Program, and professor of presidential studies. They discus John's new book The Ecology of Nations:  American Democracy in a Fragile World Order (New Haven, CT:  Yale University Press, 2023) and Marc's book The Kennedy Withdrawal:  Camelot and the American Commitment to Vietnam (Cambrdige, MA:  Harvard University Press, 2022). They discuss tensions in JFK's commitment to Vietnam and the question of whether or not he would have withdrawn US forces from SE Asia had he lived, the role of botched withdrawals in Vietnam and Afghanistan on US standing in the world, America's diminished reputation for competence and the defense of global order, the relationship between American democracy and the state of democracy in the international order with the rise of populism globally and much else.


https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+kennedy+withdrawal&hvadid=676976545333&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9051515&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=1675637251603091413&hvtargid=kwd-1935195859327&hydadcr=22165_13517535&tag=googhydr-20&ref=pd_sl_4mgav3wic7_e


https://www.amazon.com/Ecology-Nations-American-Democracy-Politics/dp/0300260733/ref=sr_1_1?crid=SZU0KJM5NX1F&keywords=the+ecology+of+nations&qid=1702755136&sprefix=the+ecology+of+nation%2Caps%2C93&sr=8-1

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

While President Zelensky is meeting in the White House on Dec. 12, Eric welcomes former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor to Shield of the Republic. They discuss the state of play on the supplemental aid legislation, the causes for the Ukrainian Counter Offensive's "failure" this summer, the search for a new strategy, General Zaluzhny's ideas about the changing character of warfare, the stresses and strains of domestic Ukrainian politics, the prospects for negotiations, the consequences of failure to get the assistance money and Plan B if the effort on the Hill fails.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.