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Another Marine unit deploys to the Middle East, FTC investigates OpenAI

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI fired three safety researchers for allegedly sharing information with an outside AI safety organization. The FTC opened an investigation into multiple AI companies.

• Which company's model will have the highest score on Epoch's Capabilities Index at the end of 2026? Forecasters assign an aggregate 56% chance to Anthropic, 43% to OpenAI, 7.5% to Google DeepMind, 1.2% to SpaceXAI, 1.9% to another Western company, and 0.4% to a Chinese company.

• Will there be another publicly reported case of a Western frontier AI company having paused inference because of safety concerns with a model before 2027? Forecasters think there's a 49% (20% to 80%) chance.

Geopolitics: The US is deploying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which has over 2K Marines, to the Middle East. Crude oil flows from the Middle East are nearly back to pre-Iran-war levels. The Iranian economy is increasingly tightly squeezed. Russia is now broadly targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before February 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 7.4% (5% to 23%) probability.

• [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:47) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:50) Geopolitics

(08:52) Middle East

(11:26) Europe

(12:53) Asia-Pacific

(13:03) United States

(15:00) Latin America

(15:03) Africa

(16:04) Biorisk

(19:34) Economy

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First published:
October 5th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/open-model-reaches-mythos-hacking

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI discovered more rogue AI agent incidents, and Australia's government said that a rogue OpenAI agent breached or attempted to breach some of its government systems. The US and China agreed to establish an AI incident communication line.

• Before 2028, will a rogue AI swarm hack a national government system of any country, or a major bank or investment firm, and demand a ransom of 10 million dollars or more? Our forecasters think there's a 6.2% (0.5% to 24%) chance.

Geopolitics: Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day pause in fighting. The main parties in the US continue to engage in disputes over election integrity ahead of the midterm elections.

• Will a constitutional quorum of the US House (218 out of 435 members) elect a Speaker, swear in a Speaker, and be sworn in en masse no later than January 10, 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 95% (70% to 99%) probability.

  • If so, will at least 425 members be sworn in en masse once the Speaker is sworn in? Forecasters think there's a 98% (95% to 99%) chance.

  • If so, will the Democratic Party control the House [...]

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Outline:

(00:25) Executive summary

(03:53) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:34) Geopolitics

(12:37) Middle East

(15:36) Europe

(18:18) Asia-Pacific

(19:23) United States

(23:48) Latin America

(24:23) Africa

(25:33) Economy

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First published:
September 28th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-reveals-more-rogue-ai-agent

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: Trump and Xi may discuss AI safety during their summit this week. Worries about AI may become politically polarized. Google Gemini also went rogue, and OpenAI revealed more worrying incidents.

• By November 1, 2026, will the United States and China announce or otherwise publicly confirm any policy agreed by both governments that is intended to:

  • Slow, pause or ban the pace of frontier AI development? Our forecasters give this a 1.5% (0.5% to 5.0%) chance.

  • Reduce risk from catastrophic misuse of powerful AI systems in the biological and/or cyber domains? They think there's an 8.1% (4% to 30%) chance.

  • Reduce the risk of or from loss-of-control incidents? They think there's a 14% (5% to 45%) chance.

• If YouGov asks Americans in 2027 how concerned they are that AI could cause the end of the human race, what will be the percentage-point gap between liberals and conservatives who say they are very or somewhat concerned, on the last such survey? Forecasters’ aggregate 10th, 50th and 90th percentile forecasts are 3.3%, 20% and 37.4%, respectively.

  • What about in 2028? Forecasters’ aggregate 10th, 50th and 90th percentile [...]

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Outline:

(00:25) Executive summary

(03:51) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:44) Geopolitics

(10:47) Middle East

(13:08) Europe

(15:04) Asia

(16:29) United States

(19:35) Economy

(25:05) Biorisk

(25:41) Climate and nature

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First published:
September 21st, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-safety-ahead

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: The resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic over fears about existential risk went viral, and dozens of US politicians voiced support for AI regulation. Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk called for AI progress to slow down. OpenAI claimed that an AI system generated a solution to a Millennium Problem.

• Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google DeepMind claim that an AI solved at least one more Millennium Problem before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 85% (45% to 98%) chance.

  • If so, what is the probability that at least one solution comes in the form of a proof that a conjecture or statement is universally true under all conditions, as opposed to a counterexample disproving it? They think there's a 51% (40% to 60%) chance.

• Will “advancement of computers/technology” and/or “artificial intelligence” be judged to be the most important problem facing the US today by at least 10% of respondents in Gallup polling before 2027? Forecasters think there's a 2% (0.1% to 10%) chance.

  • Will this happen before 2028? They believe there's a 14% (5% to 25%) probability. The figure currently stands at 1%.

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:29) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:42) Geopolitics

(11:45) Middle East

(14:25) Europe

(15:15) United States

(16:00) Economy

(17:51) Biorisk

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First published:
September 14th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/dozens-of-us-politicians-call-for

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, which it labelled “AGI.” Another group of OpenAI agents was found to have escaped containment and to have used a German wiki to build a message board.

• Will the US and China both ban the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) by June 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 5.5% (3% to 10%) chance.

Geopolitics: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv. Argentina's Javier Milei reiterated his country's claim to the Falkland Islands.

• Will there be any hostilities between the militaries of Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands before September 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 1.6% (0.3% to 5%) probability.

  • If so, will Britain maintain control of the Islands a year after hostilities commence? Our forecasters think there's a 96% (65% to 99.9%) chance.

• Will more than 100 ICE or CBP agents total, across the US, be present at any polling places during the US midterm elections? Forecasters believe there's a 7.7% (3% to 11%) chance.

• Will any active-duty US military or federalized National Guard troops be present at any polling places during the [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(02:19) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:33) Geopolitics

(08:36) Europe

(09:27) Latin America

(10:18) Middle East

(10:34) United States

(12:31) Biorisk

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First published:
September 7th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-labels-new-gpt-6-astra-model

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI, METR and Redwood research released the findings of investigations into the Hugging Face incident.

• By September 2027, will a rogue AI successfully exfiltrate and run proprietary AI model weights externally, as part of a loss of control incident? Our forecasters think there's a 22% (0.5% to 55%) chance.

• On September 1, 2027, will there be an active AI loss of control incident underway in which a rogue AI/swarm has already survived at least one meaningful shutdown attempt by a top-10 AI company, a cloud host, or a government authority? Forecasters think there's an 18% (10% to 40%) chance.

• At any point before September 2027, will the pursuit of an international prohibition or moratorium on the development of artificial superintelligence be the official policy of any G7 or P5 country? Forecasters think there's a 29% (10% to 55%) chance.

• On September 1, 2027, will American or Chinese AI companies be allowed to publish the model weights of AIs strictly as capable of cyber offense as Mythos 5? Forecasters estimate that there is a 41% (35% to 48%) chance.

• By September 2027, will private messages of at least one [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(03:21) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:06) Geopolitics

(08:09) Europe

(12:05) Middle East

(13:08) Asia-Pacific

(13:49) United States

(15:32) Africa

(15:40) Economy

(16:14) Biorisk

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First published:
August 31st, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/new-revelations-about-the-openai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI says their largest planned frontier RL run remains on pause. A stealth model known as ‘Ox Alpha’ was released on OpenRouter and impressed users, sparking debate about which lab is behind it.

• Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? Our forecasters assign a 24% (15% to 35%) probability to a mainstream US lab (OAI/Anthropic/GDM/xAI), 34% (20% to 40%) to China's Z.ai/GLM, 9% (5.0% to 15%) to China's Alibaba/Qwen, 5% (3% to 10%) to Nvidia, 17% (5% to 25%) to another Western lab, 9% (5% to 15%) to another Chinese lab, and 3% to something else.

Geopolitics: A Russian drone was shot down close to a Romanian natural gas facility in the Black Sea on which hundreds of workers were present. US Senator Jon Ossoff made headlines after mentioning the name of one of Trump's closest staffers, and caught the attention of some in the AI safety community for mentioning the threat of AI-induced human extinction.

• Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential election? Forecasters think he has a 12% (8% to 18%) chance.

• Will Russia successfully attack any item of physical infrastructure larger than 100m2 inside [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:01) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:55) Geopolitics

(11:57) Middle East

(13:06) Europe

(14:40) Asia

(15:54) United States

(17:44) Economy

(19:44) Biorisk

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First published:
August 24th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openais-largest-frontier-rl-run-remains

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate could force US companies to pause AI development.

• Will the US Senate succeed in pausing AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China? Our forecasters think there's a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance, which rises to 19% (12% to 30%) conditional on a treaty.

• Will a Google DeepMind model be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch's capability index? Forecasters believe there's a 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability.

Geopolitics: Trump ordered US participation in joint military exercises with South Korea to be cut. Poland says it thwarted a Russian plot to kill an American citizen in Warsaw. Trump threatened to declare the Strait of Hormuz part of US territory.

• What is the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027? Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval is 0 to 20, with the [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(02:40) Technology and artificial intelligence

(07:48) Geopolitics

(07:51) Middle East

(08:46) United States

(09:13) Europe

(12:02) Latin America

(12:14) Asia

(14:11) Oceania

(14:21) Africa

(16:13) Economy

(16:53) Biorisk

(17:59) Climate and Nature

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First published:
August 17th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/chinese-company-delays-release-of

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: OpenAI provided more details about the attack on Hugging Face, revealing that AI agents cooperated and covertly built a message board. Their new Astra model will potentially be the first to be classed as “critical” for cybersecurity capabilities, meaning it has not yet been released to the public.

• Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 84% (70% to 90%) chance.

• Will more than 10% of the population of at least one EU country be unable to access banking services for at least 72 hours before August 2027? The team thinks there's a 21% (10% to 40%) probability.

• Will it be publicly announced by an AI company based in the US or China that one of their systems successfully evaded a shutdown attempt (by the owners, to apply to all instances), before 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 2.4% (0.5% to 10%) chance.

• Before 2030, will it be publicly announced by an AI company that multiple agents cooperated to carry out unsanctioned activities on, or in a period including, August 11th 2026? Forecasters think there's a 24% [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:36) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:53) Geopolitics

(08:56) Middle East

(10:24) Europe

(11:13) United States

(11:52) Biorisk

(12:47) Climate and nature

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First published:
August 10th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-incident-involved-multi-agent

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Israel withdraws from Gaza, but Israel said it would not withdraw until Hamas gives up the weapons.

• Will Iran or its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) strike the territory of Bulgaria or Romania before October 1, 2026 with a ballistic missile, drone, or covert attack that is credibly attributed? Our forecasters think there's a 9% (5% to 15%) chance.

• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be selected by the President of Israel and successfully form a government after the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026? Our forecasters give this a 47% (30% to 65%) probability.

Technology and AI: OpenAI and Anthropic said they found more evidence of their models having been involved in attempted or actual cyber breaches. More than 1 thousand employees of frontier AI labs signed an open letter calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools to “pace” the frontier of automated AI development.

• In the US [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:27) Geopolitics

(02:30) Middle East

(05:29) Europe

(06:38) Asia

(07:04) United States

(09:13) North Africa

(10:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:49) Biorisk

(14:53) Economy

(19:15) Climate and nature

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First published:
August 3rd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-widens-openai-and-anthropic

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Representatives.

• Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before January 3, 2027? Our forecasters think there's an 18% (12% to 27%) chance.

• By December 31, 2027, will OpenAI or any of its directors, officers, or employees be arrested, charged, penalized, or subjected to formal regulatory or criminal enforcement action for conduct related to the Hugging Face attack? Our forecasters believe there's a 2.6% (1% to 9%) probability.

Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis carried out strikes on each other, while the US and Iran paused fighting for over two days, with Oman attempting to mediate a fresh ceasefire deal.

• Will the United States and Iran announce a new ceasefire by the end of August? Our forecasters think there's a 60% (40% to 70%) chance.

Biorisk: The number of confirmed deaths in the Ebola outbreak reached 1,407, up from 930 last week.

• How many confirmed deaths will there [...]

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Outline:

(00:18) Executive summary

(02:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(05:29) Geopolitics

(05:32) Middle East

(07:11) Europe

(09:18) Latin America

(09:48) Asia

(10:15) Africa

(10:25) United States

(12:50) Biorisk

(14:53) Economy

(16:58) Climate and nature

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First published:
July 27th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-model-breaches-containment

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continued its nightly strikes on Iranian territory, while Iran retaliated against Gulf states and against US bases in Jordan and Iraq, killing at least three US servicemembers. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis ended a four-year truce, and the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which could disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before September 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (10% to 45%) chance.

• Will a new temporary or permanent ceasefire agreement be reached and put into effect between Iran and the US before September 2026? The team believes there's a 53% (21% to 70%) probability.

• Will the price of Brent crude oil reach $100 per barrel before 2027? Our forecasters believe there's a 68% (60% to 80%) chance.

• Will the Houthis attempt to seize or sink at least one ship before September 2026? Forecasters think there's a 69% (51% to 77%) chance.

Technology and AI: Chinese startup Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3, an open-weight model that approaches frontier models produced by OpenAI and Anthropic in its capabilities. [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:23) Geopolitics

(02:26) Middle East

(04:34) Europe

(07:35) Asia

(09:13) United States

(12:05) Technology and artificial intelligence

(15:01) Biorisk

(18:05) Economy

(18:39) Climate and nature

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First published:
July 20th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-persists-with-more-us-troops

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman.

• Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur.

• Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per barrel again? Forecasters give this a 29% (20% to 34%) chance.

Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 following a US government review process and claimed that it produced a proof of a decades-old mathematical conjecture in under an hour. The US government is considering an executive order that would regulate open-source AIs, while China is mulling export controls on its most advanced models.

• Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? We give this a 73% (65% to 80%) chance.

• Will China restrict foreign usage of its top AI models by March 2027? We’re broadly unsure, at a 45% (22% to 55%) chance.

Biorisk: The Ebola outbreak [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(02:30) Geopolitics

(02:33) Middle East

(04:47) Europe

(06:03) United States

(08:23) Asia

(08:41) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:13) Biorisk

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First published:
July 13th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-ceasefire-breaks-openai-releases

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :(

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.

• Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement? We think there's a 41% (15% to 85%) chance.

• Will at least 100 Russian troops enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility (in total), by July 1, 2027? Irregular forces will count. We think there's a 4% (0.5% to 25%) probability.

  • If so, will NATO forces capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops in one or more of these countries, combined, by July 1, 2027 as reported by ISW? There's forecaster dissent [58% (11% to 90%)] as to this probability.

  • If so, will the following countries all come to the military aid of the invaded country(ies): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and Britain? We think there's a 91% (50% [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive summary

(03:03) Geopolitics

(03:06) Europe

(06:22) Middle East

(07:09) Asia

(07:30) United States

(07:57) Africa

(08:52) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:16) Biorisk

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First published:
July 6th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-export-controls-lifted

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks.

• Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (30% to 62%) chance.

  • What about on October 15, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 71% (60% to 80%) chance.

• Will Ukraine control all of Crimea by the end of 2026? Our forecasters give this a 14% (3% to 75%) probability.

• Will Putin still be the President of the Russian Federation on July 1, 2027? We think there's a 87% (65% to 94%) chance.

• Will more than 5,000 Pakistani law enforcement, other security personnel and troops be killed in 2026 within Pakistan? Our forecasters think there's a 3.4% (0.1% to 15%) probability.

Technology and AI: Alex Bores, who co-authored one of the world's few pieces of legislation that attempts to mitigate catastrophic risks [...]

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Outline:

(00:29) Executive summary

(02:55) Geopolitics

(02:58) Middle East

(04:46) Europe

(06:11) United States

(08:08) Asia

(08:55) Africa

(09:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:22) Biorisk

(14:28) Nature and climate

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First published:
June 29th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-iran-resumed-fighting-before

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Ebola is really about to take off.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks.

• Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 43% (30% to 60%) probability, but see below for the operationalization of the question.

  • What about on October 15, 2026? Forecasters think there's a 61% (60% to 65%) chance.

• Will Ukraine become a full member of the European Union before 2030? Our forecasters believe there's a 22% (11% to 45%) probability.

Technology and AI: Open-weight models are narrowing the gap with closed-weight frontier models on some benchmarks. The US fears that China has access to a lithography machine used to manufacture chips that is produced exclusively by Dutch company ASML.

• Will the US government explicitly prevent an AI model trained by a company other than Anthropic from being released to [...]

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Outline:

(00:28) Executive summary

(02:43) Geopolitics

(02:45) Middle East

(04:25) Europe

(05:46) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:18) Biorisk

(12:32) Nature and climate

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First published:
June 22nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-rises-us

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy.

• Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability.

• Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there's a 76% (70% to 85%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic's Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US's Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments.

• Will access to Anthropic's Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance.

• If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:28) Geopolitics

(03:31) Middle East

(04:30) Europe

(05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:42) Biorisk

(10:19) Economy

(10:49) Nature and climate

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First published:
June 15th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania.

• Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance.

• Will a peace agreement between the US and Iran, that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping with or without a toll system, be signed before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 28% (21% to 35%) chance.

Technology and AI: Trump signed an executive order that calls on frontier AI labs to provide the US government with early access to their models for pre-deployment testing.

• Will Anthropic, OpenAI and Google DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump's executive order 14409 through the end of 2026? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 77% (63% to 93%) probability.

Biorisk: While the Ebola outbreak continues to grow, hundreds of suspected cases and deaths were removed from official case tallies, with the WHO now reporting 93 confirmed deaths. The New World screwworm has been found [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:23) Geopolitics

(02:26) Middle East

(03:51) Europe

(05:32) The Americas

(05:49) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:12) Biorisk

(11:37) Economy

---

First published:
June 8th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-and-israel-exchange-fire-for

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza.

• Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance.

Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slower pace. There are currently between 220 and 300 suspected deaths.

• Will at least two countries besides the DRC have at least 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Bundibugyo Ebolavirus by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% (20% to 50%) chance.

• Will there be more than 20,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola in the current outbreak by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 55% (35% to 70%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's valuation in its latest funding round.

• What is the chance that Anthropic's valuation will exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 35% (20% to 51%) probability.

Economy:

• Will the hourly Brent crude oil futures [...]

---

Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:11) Geopolitics

(02:14) Middle East

(03:55) Europe

(05:00) Asia-Pacific

(05:33) The Americas

(05:36) Latin America

(05:59) The United States

(07:12) Africa

(07:25) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:27) Biorisk

(14:00) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 1st, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drone-hits-romanian-apartment

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work.

• Will the US carry out a strike on Cuba's territory by the end of July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 34% (20% to 50%) chance.

Biorisk: The number of suspected deaths in the current Ebola outbreak has exceeded 200.

• How many suspected deaths will there be due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of June and by the end of 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence intervals are 870 to 18K and 3.5K to 200K respectively.

• Will there be more than 10 recorded cases of Ebola in the US and Europe by the end of 2026, including imported cases? Our forecasters think there's a 68% (50% to 85%) chance.

Technology and AI: Trump held back from signing an executive order encouraging AI labs to have their models reviewed by the US government prior to release. OpenAI said that a general-purpose model has autonomously solved an Erdos problem, while DeepMind said one of its models has solved [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:34) Geopolitics

(02:36) Middle East

(03:42) Europe

(03:56) Asia-Pacific

(04:21) The Americas

(04:24) Latin America

(06:08) The United States

(06:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:19) Biorisk

(15:24) Economy

---

First published:
May 25th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/renewed-us-iran-negotiations-openai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models.

• Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability.

• Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance.

Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization.

• As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230).

Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background.

• [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:51) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(03:43) Europe

(04:09) The Americas

(04:11) Latin America

(07:21) The United States

(07:48) Asia-Pacific

(08:00) Africa

(09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:04) Biorisk

(12:56) Economy

---

First published:
May 18th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end.

• Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance.

Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering introducing an executive order mandating that the government reviews new AI models before they are released to the public.

• Will the US Federal Government through executive order or legislation regulate the release of all new AI models from frontier laboratories by November 3rd, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 32% (27% to 40%) probability.

Economy: The S&P 500's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, namely a handful of Big Tech stocks.

• Will the tech companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple account for at least 65% of overall growth of the S&P 500 in Q4 of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 33% (15% to 60%) chance.

Biorisk: Passengers who were on the cruise ship associated with the hantavirus outbreak are [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:40) Geopolitics

(02:43) Middle East

(03:35) Europe

(04:37) The Americas

(04:40) Latin America

(05:02) The United States

(05:35) Asia-Pacific

(06:12) Technology and artificial intelligence

(07:46) Economy

(09:13) Biorisk

(11:44) Nature and climate

---

First published:
May 11th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response.

• Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the War Powers Act? Our forecasters think there's a 6% (5% to 7%) chance.

• Will there be a new conflict in Africa that kills over 100 thousand people before May 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 17% (15% to 30%) chance.

Technology and AI: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was found to have a similar level of performance to Anthropic's Mythos model on the UK AISI's suite of cyber tasks. Unlike Mythos, it has been publicly deployed.

• Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027 because of its use in cyberattacks? Our forecasters believe there's a 7% (5% to 8%) chance.

Economy: Brent crude oil prices reached a new war-related high, as did gas prices in the US. Outgoing [...]

---

Outline:

(00:18) Executive summary

(02:09) Geopolitics

(02:12) Middle East

(03:07) The Americas

(03:48) The United States

(04:58) Europe

(05:30) Africa

(06:03) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:10) Economy

(13:08) Biorisk

(13:37) Nature and climate

---

First published:
May 4th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan.

• Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance.

• Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance.

• Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability.

Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model.

• Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance.

Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:31) Geopolitics

(02:34) Middle East

(04:18) Asia

(05:26) The Americas

(05:29) The United States

(06:26) The Rest of the Americas

(07:05) Europe

(07:17) Economy

(08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:59) Nature and climate

(12:57) Miscellaneous

---

First published:
April 27th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends.

• Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance.

• Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability.

• Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance.

  • If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability.

  • If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate.

    • If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(03:50) Geopolitics

(03:53) Middle East

(06:34) The Americas

(06:37) The United States

(08:55) The Rest of the Americas

(09:33) Asia

(10:08) Africa

(10:23) Economy

(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
April 20th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place.

• What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance.

• What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability.

• What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance.

• Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome.

Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...]

---

Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Middle East

(06:18) Europe

(07:45) The Americas

(07:48) The United States

(09:42) The Rest of the Americas

(10:01) Asia

(10:14) Economy

(11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:54) Nature and climate

---

First published:
April 13th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties.

• Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability.

• Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance.

  • If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030).

  • If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027).

• Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance.

Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code.

• [...]

---

Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(03:36) Geopolitics

(03:39) Middle East

(08:22) Europe

(09:52) The Americas

(10:41) Asia

(10:55) Economy

(11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Biorisk

---

First published:
April 6th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-iranian-power-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran.

• Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one ship before May 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 64% (50% to 77%) chance.

• Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 25% (18% to 30%) probability of a government being in power that does not include the IRGC.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 66% (55% to 80%) chance.

Technology and AI: Epoch announced that one of its FrontierMath open problems was solved for the first time, by GPT-5.4 Pro. A federal judge temporarily halted the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk.

• Will AI have solved at least 1 problem that qualifies as a “solid result” in Epoch's FrontierMath: Open Problems collection [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(08:03) Europe

(09:05) Asia

(09:55) The Americas

(10:21) Economy

(14:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(16:19) Biorisk

---

First published:
March 30th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iranian-steel-and-nuclear-plants

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: More oil and gas facilities in the Middle East were targeted in Israeli and Iranian attacks. Another US Marine unit is being deployed to the Middle East. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power infrastructure, and Iran threatened to retaliate against critical sites including desalination plants; Trump has backed down for now and says US-Iran talks are ongoing.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% chance (14% to 55%).

• Will the US place >10,000 boots on the ground before July? Our forecasters think there's a 13.5% probability (4% to 27%).

Technology and AI: An AI agent at Meta reportedly went rogue recently, exposing sensitive data to those who should not have had access. An AI security researcher says that there have been other “loss of control” incidents over the past year.

• Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 5% chance (3% to 7%).

Economy: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for over three weeks, and several more weeks of [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:46) Geopolitics

(02:49) Middle East

(07:44) Asia

(08:09) The Americas

(09:29) Europe

(09:45) Economy

(12:40) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
March 23rd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/oil-and-gas-facilities-attacked-in

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members don’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 42% (20% to 75%) chance,

• Will 10 or more desalination plants in the Middle East be attacked from March 16 to April 15, 2026? Our forecasters assign a 11% (5% to 20%) probability of this happening.

• When will the US cease major military operations against Iran's territory along with air and naval assets? Our forecasters’ aggregate point estimate is April 19 (March 28 to May 10).

Technology and AI: Anthropic is suing the Pentagon for designating the company a supply-chain risk, with Microsoft filing an amicus brief in support of Anthropic's case. A wide range of voices, including Yoshua Bengio, Steve Bannon and Susan Rice, signed the Pro-Human AI Declaration, with polling [...]

---

Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(09:52) Asia

(10:10) Europe

(10:54) The Americas

(12:18) Economy

(14:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
March 16th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-nato-us-bombs-kharg

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time.

• Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance.

• Will there be more than 100 combined US and Israeli deaths before July? Forecasters think there's a 38% (15% to 60%) chance.

• Will weekly shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to at least 75% of pre-war levels before April and before May? Our forecasters think there's a 39% (20% to 58%) probability before April, and a 61% (50% to 75%) chance before May.

• What will be the maximum Brent crude oil price before April and before May? Forecasters estimated maxima of $135 ($110 to $150) and $143 ($112 to $175) respectively.

• Will the month of April see no airspace closures outside Iran that are related to the Iran War? Forecasters think there's a 39% (30% to 55%) chance of this happening.

And: Trump continues to hint that he’d like to see [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:18) Geopolitics

(03:21) Middle East

(06:52) Asia

(08:51) Europe

(09:19) The Americas

(10:08) Economy

(13:00) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
March 9th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-continues-strait-of-hormuz

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly.

• Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof.

• Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance.

• Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability.

• Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here.

• Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...]

---

Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:02) Geopolitics

(03:05) Middle East

(07:35) Asia

(08:11) Latin America

(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
March 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-israel-strike-iran-iran-retaliates

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed.

• Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 66% (55% to 75%) and 79% (65% to 90%), respectively.

• Conditional on this happening by the end of June, will there have been 30 consecutive days without any US strikes on Iran on November 3, 2026 (the date of the midterms)? Forecasters estimate a 78% (60% to 90%) chance.

• Conditional on a strike by the end of June, will cyberattacks that the team believe were credibly attributed to Iran occur by the end of June and cumulatively lead to more than 10 estimated deaths? Forecasters give a 6.5% (2.0% to 15%) chance.

• Will the US remove (either partially or completely) sanctions against Cuba by the end of 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 48% (31% to 67%) probability.

• Will any oil [...]

---

Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:58) Geopolitics

(03:01) Middle East

(07:19) Europe

(08:13) Asia

(08:30) Africa

(08:46) Latin America

(09:55) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:59) Capabilities

(12:13) Governance

(17:17) Economy

---

First published:
February 23rd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-buildup-in-middle-east-continues

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”.

• Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance.

• Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability.

Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B.

• Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof.

• Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...]

---

Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:14) Geopolitics

(02:17) Middle East

(04:39) Europe

(06:58) Asia

(07:10) United States

(09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:07) Economy

(13:22) Biorisk

(14:15) Nature and climate

(14:43) Miscellaneous

---

First published:
February 16th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired.

• Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof.

• What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%).

• What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome.

Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite.

• Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence

(05:46) Geopolitics

(05:49) Middle East

(06:27) Europe

(07:30) Asia

(08:12) Biorisk

(09:11) Economy

(09:48) Nature and Climate

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First published:
February 9th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks.

• Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%).

• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance.

Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form.

• What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance.

Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India.

• Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...]

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Outline:

(00:19) Executive summary

(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:22) Geopolitics

(09:24) Middle East

(11:18) Europe

(13:18) The Americas

(13:21) Latin America

(16:06) North America

(20:22) Asia

(21:22) Africa

(21:43) Biorisk

(23:07) Economy

(25:08) Nature and climate

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First published:
February 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis.

• Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability.

• Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance.

• Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability.

• Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance.

Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Europe

(05:38) Middle East

(08:33) The Americas

(08:36) Latin America

(09:09) North America

(14:51) Asia

(16:26) Africa

(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

(20:12) Economy

(22:15) Biorisk

(22:43) Nature and climate

---

First published:
January 26th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase.

• Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI.

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention.

• Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026.

• They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:11) Geopolitics

(03:14) Europe

(07:44) Middle East

(11:58) The Americas

(12:01) Latin America

(13:25) United States

(15:00) Asia

(15:20) Africa

(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence

(19:11) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
January 19th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil.

• Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.

• They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term.

• They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:56) Geopolitics

(03:59) Middle East

(06:07) Europe

(09:42) The Americas

(09:45) Latin America

(13:33) United States

(16:24) Asia

(16:56) Africa

(17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
January 12th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran.

• Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power.

• Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025.

• They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026.

• They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:33) Geopolitics

(02:36) Latin America

(09:35) Europe

(11:29) Middle East

(13:37) Asia

(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
January 5th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items

Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites.

• 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land.

Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US.

• 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026.

• 83% (75% to 90%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:03) Geopolitics

(02:06) Europe

(03:41) Asia

(05:39) Middle East

(06:40) The Americas

(06:43) Latin America

(09:01) United States

(09:11) Africa

(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:56) Biorisk

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First published:
December 29th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items

• Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia.

• Tech and AI: METR found that Claude Opus 4.5 has the highest measured time horizon on their suite of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, at around 4 hours and 49 minutes. A former DeepMind Director of Engineering thought, very likely incorrectly, that he had solved a Millennium Prize problem with AI assistance, potentially in an example of AI psychosis/AI-catalyzed hubris.

Forecasts

This week, we forecasted on a few of the things we think may or may not happen in 2026. We’ll have more for you next week.

• Forecasters think there's a 5.7% (3% to 15%) chance that the US unemployment rate will rise above 10% at any point in 2026.

• They think there's a 44% (39% to 50%) probability that a major AI lab will hold an IPO.

• They believe [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:39) Geopolitics

(02:42) Europe

(03:46) The Americas

(03:48) Latin America

(06:52) United States

(07:35) More Epstein files were released by the Department of Justice following the success of a discharge petition in Congress, but they were criticised for being heavily redacted. They feature photographs and other materials related to Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Bill Clinton and others.

(09:24) Middle East

(10:26) Asia

(10:52) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:03) Biorisk

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First published:
December 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-unemployment-and-ipos-in-2026

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027.

  • Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months.

  • They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance.

  • They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026.

• Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2.

  • And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:52) Geopolitics

(02:55) Europe

(06:06) Asia

(06:38) The Americas

(12:22) United States

(13:28) Middle East

(13:42) Africa

(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(17:49) Economy

(18:12) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027.

• Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement.

• Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick.

Forecasts:

• Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%).

• Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026.

• [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:30) Geopolitics

(02:33) Europe

(05:08) Asia

(07:06) Middle East

(07:27) The Americas

(08:46) United States

(10:22) Africa

(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:41) Economy

(14:31) Biorisk

(14:42) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
December 8th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue.

• Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026.

• They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025.

• And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026.

Geopolitics

Europe

Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(01:40) Geopolitics

(01:43) Europe

(02:37) The Americas

(02:40) Latin America

(04:03) United States

(05:42) Middle East

(07:09) Asia

(08:15) Africa

(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:54) Biorisk

(11:01) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week

• Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.

  • Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.

  • They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.

• Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Europe

(05:35) The Americas

(05:37) Latin America

(08:39) United States

(09:26) Middle East

(10:37) Asia

(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Economy

(15:29) Biorisks

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First published:
November 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

• Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign.

• Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026.

• They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026.

• They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(01:51) Geopolitics

(01:54) Asia

(04:44) Middle East

(06:50) The Americas

(06:53) Latin America

(09:23) United States

(10:26) Africa

(10:37) Europe

(11:04) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:28) Economy

(14:20) Biorisks

(14:50) Climate

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First published:
November 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher.

• Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks.

• Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026.

• They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January.

• And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(01:45) Geopolitics

(01:47) Middle East

(06:02) Africa

(06:54) The Americas

(06:57) South America

(08:24) United States

(09:18) Europe

(09:39) Asia

(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:39) Economy

---

First published:
November 10th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

• Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware.

• Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week.

• They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...]

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Outline:

(00:31) Executive summary

(02:22) Geopolitics

(02:25) The Americas

(02:28) South America

(04:40) United States

(06:08) Middle East

(09:04) Africa

(10:37) Europe

(11:07) Asia

(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:48) Economy

(15:19) Biorisk

---

First published:
November 3rd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

• Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry.

• Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan.

• Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:06) Geopolitics

(02:09) The Americas

(02:12) South America

(06:20) United States

(09:00) Asia

(10:02) Middle East

(11:53) Africa

(12:25) Europe

(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(16:34) Economy

(17:06) Biorisk

---

First published:
October 27th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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