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In the wake of the recent U.S. election which was beyond disappointing to those of us who care about the planet, Sea Change Radio will not be closely covering political issues and the machinations of the incoming administration simply because it will be too depressing. Instead, we will continue to cover the shift to sustainability. Rather than focusing on humans this week on Sea Change Radio, we dig into the archives and turn our gaze to the insect world. First, we speak to two scientists, Dylan Gaeta and Scot Miller, from Johns Hopkins University, who share their research on the effects that termite pesticides are having on the climate. Then, we hear from Anne Carlson, the CEO of Jiminy's, who talks about the benefits of her company's insect-based dog food.
Lloyd Alter on Sufficiency
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 • Duration 29:00
It seems fitting this week, as millions of Americans sit down to an enormous feast, that we discuss the topic of over-indulgence -- and we are not just talking about turkey and pie. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Canadian environmental journalist Lloyd Alter about sufficiency. We discuss the need to develop sufficiency measures in the sustainability space, talk about examples of sufficiency from the corporate world, and look at Paul Brannen's recent book "Timber!" which makes the case that wood is a more sustainable building material as compared to mined or manufactured compounds.
Bob Berwyn: COP29 In Azerbaijan
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 • Duration 29:00
Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan. For three years in a row now, the United Nations has chosen to hold its flagship environmental meeting - the UN Conference of the Parties, or COP - in a country largely dependent on oil revenues for its economic well-being. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News, currently in Baku, Azerbaijan covering COP29. We examine the problems associated with holding this ever-expanding event in a petro-state, discuss the logistics behind the selection, and consider the key takeaway policies from the conference.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio, covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Bob Berwyn (BB) | 00:22 - And there's people every day here telling me stories about their islands, where their wells are full of salt water, where they can't grow food anymore, where their shoreline communities are being flooded. And then go into these, uh, sort of glitzy reception in pavilion areas where people are backslapping each other and making deals and smiling and drinking espressos. I mean, there's hundreds of boots that everyone has its own little espresso stand. And, you know, it feels like a business convention.
Narrator | 00:56 - Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan for three years in a row. Now the United Nations has chosen to hold its flagship environmental meeting, the UN conference of the parties or cop in a country, largely dependent on oil revenues for its economic wellbeing. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News. Currently in Baku, Azerbaijan covering Cop 29. We examine the problems associated with holding this ever expanding event in a petro-state. Discuss the logistics behind the selection and consider the key takeaway policies from the conference.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:50 - I am joined now on Sea Change Radio by Bob Berwyn from Inside Climate News. Bob, welcome back to Sea Change Radio.
Bob Berwyn (BB) | 02:04 - Hello Alex, and thanks for having me back again. I appreciate it.
Alex Wise (AW) | 02:08 - Well, it's always a pleasure. I wish there'd be better news as an expat based in, uh, Austria, you have a, a different perspective, a unique perspective on the American political process, and it's been a very difficult one for all of us to deal with. But we're not going to talk about that moving forward on Sea Change Radio as much as possible. It's just too depressing. So let's focus on something else depressing, which is last time we had you on, well, I don't know if it was the last time we had you on, but we did talk to you last year when you covered the Cop 28 Conference, the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Dubai this year. It's in another petro-state, not that far from it. It's in Azerbaijan. And this one might be even more depressing from what I've been reading about it. From your coverage set, the stage, if you will, for what this conference means and what the message is coming from the United Nations ho having it hosted by Azerbaijan.
Bob Berwyn (BB) | 03:09 - Sure. Depressing is probably, uh, a good word. Saddening is another good word. And it is the third year in a row that the conference has been hosted in an oil dependent petro-state with, uh, authoritarian tendencies. So, uh, there were concerns going in about restrictions on civil liberties and dissidents of the government here being imprisoned. And quite some restrictions on protests. You probably recall that sub past cops, there have been fairly large, uh, demonstrations in the streets of the host cities, really with thousands of people turning out. And that's been kind of ratcheted down the last three years to the point that this year demonstrators are only allowed inside the blue zone. The so-called Blue Zone of the conference, which is for the duration of the event, is designated as United Nations territory. So the United Nations rules apply rather than the host country laws.
Maria Gallucci: Zero Emission Marine Vessels (Re-broadcast)
Wednesday, November 13, 2024 • Duration 29:00
When it comes to energy transitions, marine vessels tend to get overlooked, even though they are some of the worst polluters of our oceans and air. The heavy duty diesel fuel used by most ships presents serious problems for the planet. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Maria Gallucci, a Senior Reporter at Canary Media, who describes efforts being made to transform boats and ships into zero emission marine fleets. We look at a project to electrify tugboats in San Diego, a cutting-edge hydrogen ferry about to launch in San Francisco, and innovations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the international cargo shipping space.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio, covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Maria Gallucci (MG) | 00:17 - When we think about the effect that these vessels have, yes, they are certainly contributing to climate change in a very real way. They're also directly spewing pollution into these communities as well.
Narrator | 00:30 - When it comes to energy transitions, marine vessels tend to get overlooked, even though they are some of the worst polluters of our oceans and air. The heavy duty diesel fuel used by most ships presents serious problems for the planet. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Maria Gallucci, a Senior Reporter at Canary Media, who describes efforts being made to transform boats and ships into zero emission marine fleets. We look at a project to electrify tugboats in San Diego, a cutting-edge hydrogen ferry about to launch in San Francisco, and innovations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the international cargo shipping space.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:30 - I am joined now on Sea Change Radio by Maria Gallucci. Maria is a senior reporter for Canary Media. Maria, welcome to Sea Change Radio.
Maria Gallucci (MG) | 01:43 - Hi. Thanks for having me.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:45 - Why don't you first tell us about Canary Media. You just recently celebrated your third anniversary, correct?
Maria Gallucci (MG) | 01:51 - Yes, we did. So, Canary Media is a nonprofit newsroom covering the clean energy transition. We are a fully independent outlet, and we focus primarily on the United States, but kind of hoping to expand globally because obviously this is an issue that affects everywhere.
AW | 02:07 - When we think about energy transitions, we're often thinking about getting an electric vehicle or making a change to our electric grid. But one of the more global issues is ocean transport. And you've written a few pieces on how maritime vessels are trying to electrify. Why don't you first kind of give us an overview of some of the industry's problems that they're facing and, and what the solutions could be on the horizon?
MG | 02:36 - Sure. So globally, the International Shipping Sector accounts for about 3% of greenhouse gas emissions every year. That includes cargo ships, harbor crafts, and all types of vessels that serve this massive multi-trillion dollar industry. And there are kind of many ways to go about tackling the problem of, one of which is, is developing greener fuels to go in these cargo ships. Another is electrifying, uh, especially the smaller vessels like tugboats and ferries. Still complicated and expensive to do, but, uh, we're starting to see a lot of progress on harbor craft and particular that operate close to ports close to communities. And so it's not just a solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but also kind of these toxic air pollutants that concentrate in communities.
AW | 03:28 - So these harbor craft, let's focus on those a little bit more. It makes a lot of sense. These are kind of the low hanging fruit for transitioning to electrification, right? You can recharge them pretty frequently because they're not out to Sea for two or three days.
MG | 03:43 - Exactly. Uh, ferries especially, and even tugboats, they kind of have a home base. They'll go out, they'll do the run, they'll come back,
Abrahm Lustgarten on “The Ghosts of John Tanton”
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 • Duration 29:00
Many of us on the Left see the fight for environmental justice as going hand-in-hand with other progressive battles, including racial justice and human rights. But, evidently, not all environmentalist efforts are rooted in the same values. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak to Abrahm Lustgarten, a reporter for ProPublica, about his recent piece chronicling an ugly, hidden side to the history of the American environmentalist movement. We learn about John Tanton, a virulent racist and eugenicist who befriended many environmental leaders, find out how he’s connected to the perpetrator of the El Paso Wal-Mart mass shooting, Patrick Crusius, and talk about how white supremacy and xenophobia have come to dominate right-wing rhetoric in this country.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Abrahm Lustgarten (AL) | 00:18 - We are all paying too little attention to, you know, the human impacts of climate change to the pressures of climate change and what that does to society and to politics, and to communities, not physically, not the disaster threats and things like that, but what it does to the way that we relate to each other.
Narrator | 00:35 - Many of us on the Left see the fight for environmental justice as going hand-in-hand with other progressive battles, including racial justice and human rights. But, evidently, not all environmentalist efforts are rooted in the same values. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak to Abrahm Lustgarten, a reporter for ProPublica, about his recent piece chronicling an ugly, hidden side to the history of the American environmentalist movement. We learn about John Tanton, a virulent racist and eugenicist who befriended many environmental leaders, find out how he’s connected to the perpetrator of the El Paso Wal-Mart mass shooting, Patrick Crusius, and talk about how white supremacy and xenophobia have come to dominate right-wing rhetoric in this country.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:35 - I am joined now on Sea Change Radio by Abrahm Lustgarten. He's a reporter at ProPublica. Abrahm, welcome back to Sea Change. Radio.
Abrahm Lustgarten (AL) | 01:48 - Great to be here. Thanks for having me.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:50 - Been almost a decade, I think, since we've spoken, but I wanted to have you on because you wrote an excellent piece recently for ProPublica entitled “The Ghost of John Tanton - Climate Change and Anti-Immigrant Hate are colliding for Telling a Volatile Future.” A lot of our discussions about the environmental movement have focused on race, and one of the criticisms that we hear is that it's too white of a movement In many ways, John Tanton is really the poster child for that discussion. Who is he and why don't you explain how you came to discuss him as part of a, a, a larger point you're trying to make in this piece.
Abrahm Lustgarten (AL) | 02:28 - Yeah, so John Tanton is a man who started most of the organizations that we now know to be hugely influential in steering and characterizing and setting the tone of our debate over immigration in the United States. But he didn't start out that way. He started out as, uh, an avid environmentalist and going back to the 1950s, 1960s, you know, he was, uh, both an early conservationist. He lived in Michigan and he started early conservation groups in Michigan. He was an early member of the Sierra Club and headed the Michigan chapter of the Sierra Club. And he, like many environmentalists of the era, was most concerned about this idea that we were overpopulating the planet, that the number of people on the planet was drawing too much on resources and making life unsustainable. And so he set out, uh, you know, a very intelligent individual and a very organized, uh, and networked individual to campaign against, uh, overpopulation, uh, and to do that in every way that he could. But that evolved over the years. And as the US reproductive rate stabilized in, in the mid 1970s,
Election Countdown: John Stoehr + Daniel Nichanian
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 • Duration 29:00
This week on Sea Change Radio, we give you one last pre-election episode with two keen political journalists. First, a free-flowing conversation about the presidential election with John Stoehr of the Editorial Board where we discuss the state of polling, take a look at the closing days of the two candidates and evaluate the impact of the Harris campaign having a significant ground game advantage. Then, we speak to Daniel Nichanian of Bolts Magazine as he breaks down his site’s new voting guide - a useful tool to get a better grasp of the many amendments on state and local ballots across the country.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio, covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
John Stoehr (JS) | 00:21 - We don't even talk about self-inflicted wounds with him because there's so many of them. There's so many. We just toss it in the pile of more of the same. We won't think of it until he loses. When he loses and all the dread is gone, then we'll look back and say, of course, of course he was going to lose.
Narrator | 00:39 - This week on Sea Change Radio, we give you one last pre-election episode with two keen political journalists. First, a free-flowing conversation about the presidential election with John Stoehr of the Editorial Board where we discuss the state of polling, take a look at the closing days of the two candidates and evaluate the impact of the Harris campaign having a significant ground game advantage. Then, we speak to Daniel Nichanian of Bolts Magazine as he breaks down his site’s new voting guide - a useful tool to get a better grasp of the many amendments on state and local ballots across the country.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:20 I'm joined now on Sea Change Radio by John Stoehr. He's the founder and editor in chief of The Editorial Board. John, welcome back to Sea Change Radio.
John Stoehr (JS) | 01:37 - Thanks for having me back, Alex.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:39 - I really wanted to get a chance to speak with you before the election one last time. I think we're all on pins and needles a little bit. There's that sense of dread, not necessarily because we think Kamala Harris will lose, but because if she does, the downside is just so terrible. I think you, just like myself, have, have skipped over a lot of the articles that we've seen. Here's what will happen to the Department of Education if Donald Trump should win. Here's what will happen to the EPA if Donald Trump should win. I'm just not clicking on any of those articles right now. Well, why don't you speak to this greater dread that we're all feeling and and what it means from your perspective.
John Stoehr (JS) | 02:18 - Well, I, I think first of all, the dread is appropriate. It's appro. We are all, we're not crazy. You know, we, we do think, we do, we all understand the risks that we we're facing and that we are all feeling a bit of hype. Hypervigilance is really what that is. It's a anticipation, a bracing of oneself or some i some impact that's coming, and that's, that is appropriate. And I think, I think a lot of people, uh, actually see things in, in an upside down kind of way. Like, this is a bad thing that we're all feeling and we actually can't wait for it to be over. Now, I do think we can all, we all want it to, to be over. That's true. And I think that's also reasonable. But let's not forget how reasonable it is to be bracing for impact . You know, we, it is not crazy. And I think that's where we should, you know, if you're, if you're, um, doom scrolling or trying to get ahead, read ahead about project 2025 and so on and so forth, yes, there can be some, maybe some unhealthy obsession with that. But it's also, it begins with a very reasonable impulse to protect oneself, at least mentally and emotionally. I think, I think we can, we can spiral off into doom. And I think if you're into doom, you've, you're going too far because it hasn't happened yet. , you know, the future is unwritten.
Elizabeth Chur: The Joys Of Canvassing
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 • Duration 29:00
There is a large swath of politically aware Americans out there who would like to follow the exhortations of Michelle Obama and “do something,” but the prospect of knocking on people’s doors can be a little daunting. This week’s guest on Sea Change Radio, Elizabeth Chur, has fully embraced the art of political canvassing, however, and learned to have fun with it. In her new book, The Joy of Talking Politics With Strangers, Chur shares her experiences walking the pavement for policies and candidates she feels passionate about, talks about how to convert non-voters into voters and gives us plenty of valuable tips for canvassing success.
Narrator| 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio, covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Elizabeth Chur (EC) | 00:17 - There's something about us as volunteers that we're allowed to go off script a little bit. And to the extent that I can get away from the canned marketing script and make a person-to-person connection, I think really goes a long way to lower people's defenses, engage with them, and build rapport, which is really important.
Narrator | 00:39 - There's a large swath of politically aware Americans out there who would like to follow the exhortations of Michelle Obama and do something, but the prospect of knocking on people's doors can be a little daunting. This week's guest on Sea Change Radio Elizabeth Chur has fully embraced the art of political canvassing, however, and learned to have fun with it. In her new book, The Joy of Talking Politics with Strangers, Cher shares her experiences walking the pavement for policies and candidates she feels passionate about. Talks about how to convert nonvoters into voters and gives us plenty of valuable tips for canvassing success.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:35 I am joined now on Sea Change Radio by Elizabeth Chur. She is a swing left San Francisco volunteer, a voter engagement trainer, and author of the new book, the Joy of Talking Politics with Strangers. Elizabeth, welcome to See Change Radio.
Elizabeth Chur (EC) | 01:50 - Thanks so much for having me. I'm delighted to be here.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:55 - The subtitle of your book is How to Save Democracy One Conversation at a Time. It's a really good guide for people who want to be knocking on doors maybe for the first time or haven't had success doing it before.
EC | 02:09 Thank you so much. I wrote this book partly because it's the book that I wish I had when I was starting out. I was not a political activist before 2016. I phone banked maybe every four years for one or two shifts, and I definitely voted in every election, but I figured, you know, I was good and other people that were far more qualified would take care of the heavy lifting, of knocking on doors and making phone calls. And I figured, they're just smarter than I am. They're more capable, they're more informed and they would just handle it. And the 2016 election was a, like a buck vice water in my face. because it really did not work out that way. And I realized that it's up to each of us as citizens to step up and participate. And so, you know, I started with post carding and then I moved on to phone banking and I eventually mustered the courage to go actually knock doors in person. And I learned a lot along the way. And I think one of the biggest surprises was how much I enjoyed it. And I really wanted to share that with other people because I think there is this fear of talking with strangers and particularly talking with them about politics. So there's sort of two things. I mean, I share a lot of logistical tips, like how to navigate maybe potentially challenging conversations with people that say I don't vote, or how to address fears that a lot of my friends have. Oh, well, isn't that scary? You know, and talking to them about that sort of like being a guide. But I also wanted to kind of share some of my own journey as, uh, becoming an activist and kind of what's helped, sustain me in this work.
Recompose CEO Katrina Spade on Green Funerals
Tuesday, October 15, 2024 • Duration 29:00
Death is a topic that most of us prefer not to think too much about. While we must all acknowledge its inevitability, on a day-to-day basis, it feels better to keep it up on a shelf in a box, out of reach from quotidian life. Then again, there are decisions to be made, and they really do need to be made in advance of those inexorable metamorphic events. This week on Sea Change Radio, we learn about the burgeoning green funeral industry from the CEO and Founder of Recompose, Katrina Spade. We look at the environmental problems associated with conventional burial and cremation, hear about the rather unusual modern history of embalming in the US, and go deep on the subject of human composting.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Katrina Spade (KS) | 00:13 - Green Funerals are growing. There's a lot of interest in bringing and looking at new ways of caring for bodies after death that aren't polluting and aren't toxic.
Narrator | 00:26 - Death is a topic that most of us prefer not to think too much about. While we must all acknowledge its inevitability on a day-to-day basis, it feels better to keep it up on a shelf in a box out of reach from quotidian life. Then again, there are decisions to be made and they really do need to be made in advance of those inexorable metamorphic events. This week on Sea Change Radio, we learn about the burgeoning green funeral industry from the CEO and founder of Recompose Katrina Spade. We look at the environmental problems associated with conventional burial in cremation, hear about the rather unusual modern history of embalming in the US and go deep on the subject of human composting.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:34 I'm joined now on Sea Change Radio by Katrina Spade. She is the founder and CEO of Recompose. Katrina, welcome to Sea Change Radio.
Katrina Spade (KS) | 01:46 - Thank you very much.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:48 - Before we dive into the services that your company offers, why don't you explain from an environmental perspective, what's been the problem for a few dozen centuries in the way humans bury their dead? Why can we do better from an environmental standpoint?
Katrina Spade (KS) | 02:09 - So the way we currently bury our dead, I'll call that conventional burial started around the Civil War, and that's when modern embalming was invented by a couple of entrepreneurial young people, , who said, look at this market of potential clients. They actually went out to the battlefields in the south and pre-sold the service of embalming to soldiers who might die. And that was a way to get those bodies back from the south to the north after death. And they used arsenic, I think at the time. Now it's a formaldehyde-based process or solution. So interestingly, I mean, people have still do and have for millennia had their dead out to say goodbye to them, but they've looked dead as opposed to looked embalmed. So it's perfectly fine and pretty common in other parts of the world to have a dead person who's un embalmed be out for a goodbye and a viewing and a what is relatively new like it since the Civil War, is this idea that we should pump the body full of embalming fluid to preserve it as long as we can. That practice is not religious based. It's not, it's not even really like a deep cultural basis in, in terms of its history. It's, uh, really was this very practical way of getting soldiers back to their homes.
AW | 03:30 - It also coincided with the birth of photography as well, I imagine. So people would want to capture a photo with their loved one before they buried them, right?
KS | 03:42 - Great point. I mean, I just say again, you don't need to embalm someone to get a picture of them when they've died.
AW | 03:47 - But they look a little better this way.
KS | 03:49 - I don't know. I think you, you could say “better.” I could say “different.”
AW | 03:53 - That was the pitch in the 1880s or something,
Koolboks: Refrigerating Africa
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 • Duration 29:00
This week on Sea Change Radio, we take a break from worrying about the election and look beyond these shores. First, we speak to Ayoola Dominic, the CEO and Co-Founder of Koolboks - an innovative refrigeration solution for the large swaths of sub-Saharan Africa that don’t have reliable access to electricity. We get an in-depth look at the company’s technology, learn about the challenges they’re facing and discuss the relationship between Koolboks and the Clinton Global Initiative. Then, we revisit part of our 2023 conversation with author Tim Killeen who has chronicled efforts to curb deforestation in the Amazon.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
Ayoola Dominic (AD) | 00:17 -So what Koolboks has done is we've integrated for the first time in freezers, lithium-ion batteries. So what happens is when you have power, you can connect them to the grid, and when we don't have power you can actually charge with the solar panels.
Narrator | 00:35 - This week on Sea Change Radio, we take a break from worrying about the election and look beyond these shores. First, we speak to Ayoola Dominic, the CEO and Co-founder of Koolboks, an innovative refrigeration solution for the large swaths of Sub-Saharan Africa that don't have reliable access to electricity. We get an in-depth look at the company's technology, learn about the challenges they're facing, and discuss the relationship between Koolboks and the Clinton Global Initiative. Then we revisit part of our 2023 conversation with author Tim Killeen, whose chronicled efforts to curb deforestation in the Amazon.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:37 - I'm joined now on Sea Change. Radio by Ayoola Dominic. He's the CEO and Co-founder of KoolBoks. Ayoola, welcome to Sea Change Radio.
Ayoola Dominic (AD) | 01:47 - Thank you so much, Alex, for having me.
Alex Wise (AW) | 01:49 - It's a pleasure to have you. Why don't you explain to us what Koolboks is, and if you can summarize what your product is all about, that would be great.
Ayoola Dominic (AD) | 01:58 - So I'll, I'll start with, uh, a bit of a context. So in, in Sub-Saharan Africa, you have over 600 million people that lacks access to electricity and therefore lacks access to refrigeration. Um, as compared to Europe and America, where you have a hundred percent penetration in refrigeration in Sub-Saharan Africa, you'll be shocked to know that it's only 17%. I repeat only 17% of the people have access to refrigeration.
Alex Wise (AW) | 02:30 - We're talking permanent refrigeration, like you have a refrigerator running 24 7, right?
Ayoola Dominic (AD) | 02:36 - Correct. And you obviously, we know what that means in terms of food wastage. About a third of all food is wasted before it gets to market. And we're talking small restaurants, we're talking small bars, and these are things that normally we would take for granted in the West, but it's a real problem in Africa. So, um, looking to solve this problem, myself and my co-founder, like three years ago, designed to found a company called the Koolboks. And the goal was to make refrigeration affordable and accessible to everyone that needs it. So using the sun and water, which is abundant in Africa, we created a solution that is able to generate refrigeration for up to four days, whether or not you have power, whether or not you have sunlight. And this we did by storing energy in the form of ice as opposed to just storing energy in the form of batteries. But of course, looking at the peculiarity of the customers we serve, then the big question, I mean, what good is the technology if no one can afford it? So what we did was we integrated in our units a pay as you go technology enabling individuals and small businesses to be able to pay as low as 10 to $15 every month to own a refrigerator. And today we've deployed in over 6,000, um, units across 26 countries in only three years, and we're still doing more actually.
Tom Bonier, Pt. 2 + Doris Kearns Goodwin Rewind
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 • Duration 29:00
This week on Sea Change Radio, more of our discussion with Democratic strategist and data analyst Tom Bonier. In this part of the conversation, we talk about the importance of a political campaign’s so-called “ground game,” look at the predictive value of early voting numbers, and examine whether Donald Trump would actually have steamrolled Joe Biden as so many were assuming. Then, we take a peek back at our 2019 interview with Doris Kearns Goodwin to learn a thing or two about leadership.
Narrator | 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.
TB | 00:17 - And so on one side, Americans were saying, no, we don't want either of them. And so one side says, okay, we'll give you someone else. We'll give you someone who is going to wage a historic candidacy and can break the glass ceiling and, and is running a joyful, hopeful campaign. And on the other side, you're going to still have that guy.
Narrator | 00:36 - This week on Sea Change Radio, more of our discussion with Democratic strategist and data analyst Tom Bonier. In this part of the conversation, we talk about the importance of a political campaign’s so-called “ground game,” look at the predictive value of early voting numbers, and examine whether Donald Trump would actually have steamrolled Joe Biden as so many were assuming. Then, we take a peek back at our 2019 interview with Doris Kearns Goodwin to learn a thing or two about leadership.
AW | 01:30 - I am joined now on Sea Change Radio by Tom Bonier. Tom is a Democratic strategist and he's with the Tara Group and TargetSmart. Tom, welcome to Sea Change Radio.
TB | 01:38 - It's great to be here.
AW | 01:40 - Tom, any podcast you might listen to or any piece you're reading, almost always to the t prefaces it with, this is a very close election. You have to say that it seems like a contractual obligation. I was completely wrong in 2016. I, if I owned my home, me too. I would've bet my mortgage that Hillary Clinton was going to win. So everybody should take my analysis with a huge grain of salt. And I'm not discouraging anybody from going out and knocking on doors like I'm going to do. We should not take anything lightly. We keep talking about Pennsylvania being the crux of this election, but I think there's much more to this election than just Pennsylvania. I don't think this is going to be as razor thin as everybody is assuming.
TB | 02:23 - Well, I think there's a good amount of evidence pointing in that direction. You know, again, as I said earlier, I, I understand the tendency for some people to talk about it being incredibly close. And let's not take anything for granted that Donald Trump could win. Don Donald Trump could win. But if we're going to assign probabilities to that, that's a much lower probability outcome. Then there's the probability of Harris winning by a narrow margin, and then there's a probability of Harris winning by a wider margin. And I'm not going to assign percentages to any of those. But I would say in aggregate there's a far higher percentage of Vice President Harris winning because of all that data, uh, that, that you mentioned in terms of the intensity and the gate and engagement. We are looking much more like 2008, you know, where you have a candidate who's inspiring and enthusiasm and energy running against a candidate who is not running a very vigorous campaign and is deeply flawed, which John McCain was, and with Sarah Palin, I'm not saying McCain and Trump are the same, that's a sacrilegious thing to say at this point, given, especially how Donald Trump has attacked John McCain…
AW | 03:35 - But he was a known quantity.
TB | 03:37 - That's right. And in terms of the contours of the, the candidates and, and the candid season campaigns, there are similarities there. And so yeah, from that data perspective in 2016, again, everyone was wrong , uh, but, it didn't lend itself to that type of analysis because we didn'...
