Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4e7CyLM    - 

Today, a full-service podcast with slide deck: we talk crude oil and risk appetite as Trump tries to press pause on the Iran-Israel conflict, the metals and grains outlook as wheat has caught a significant bid, the FX lay of the land, Tesla's high-stakes upcoming weekend and much more, including some links to other great content. Today's pod with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. 

Link to John's June 19th FX Webinar

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Today - a look at the FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed smelling stronger stagflationary risks, while the US dollar rose across the board on the failure of the Fed to wax more dovish perhaps. Elsewhere, we look at the latest interesting batch of US data and the latest on Iran-Israel. In stocks, we discuss Coinbase leading the gainers among S&P 500 stocks on the rise in stablecoin uses, which also drove two superstar stocks to post the worst declines of all S&P 500 members yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today we look at what looked like a key reversal day for the near term yesterday - as the US equity market rolled over after attempting to pierce key resistance, and the US dollar rally attempt was likewise crushed. Also, we cover the Nvidia earnings, some key provisions in the "big beautiful bill" that could spell trouble for US markets and the USD and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Risk sentiment is positive ahead of the next critical event that will determine whether the US market can achieve new all-time highs: the Nvidia's earnings call after the close today. Elsewhere, still signs of trouble in Japan's bond market, even as the pressure on the US treasury market has continued to ease, helping fuel risk sentiment. Thoughts on gold, crude, uranium and more also on the pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today a look at Japanese Government Bond yields getting crushed overnight on signs that the MoF is planning to tweak its issuance to avoid further pressure on long yields. This inspired a JPY sell-off and the US dollar has backed up across the board as well. Elsewhere, risk appetite is in fine form, if we have some longer term concerns on heavy retail participation. Today's pod hosted by Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

Jacob's preview of Nvidia earnings

John's second article in four-part series covering Rule #2 for Trading and Investing in the Trump 2.0 era.

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It's a new week and we have the latest example of what an FT columnist has called the TACO trade engaging once again: Trump Always Chickens Out. In this case, it was Trump's announcement late yesterday to delay the threat to slap 50% tariffs on the EU already to July 9 rather than June 1 (which he threatened on Friday). The US is out on holiday today, but we have plenty to discuss on geopolitics, further Trump tariff threats and executive orders on nuclear, moves in FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's article (first in four part series) on trading and investing in the Trump 2.0 era.

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Today, we ask whether too many have gotten too bearish on US treasuries, the one asset nearly everyone agrees no on should own. If so, US treasuries could be in for quite a painful squeeze ahead of a long US holiday weekend that would inevitably have interesting repercussions across markets, not least for the US dollar and gold. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's latest FX Update.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/44JSSzS   -

Today we look at the big spike in US treasuries yesterday on a weak treasury auction, which cratered confidence suddenly for the first time in weeks and sparked fresh USD selling. Elsewhere, a rundown of the action in metals, where platinum is making a strong bid for relevance, as well as weather risks for grain prices. Also, a long look at the massive uncertainties for market outcomes from here as the macro backdrop is without precedent. On today's pod are Ole Hansen, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.

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Today, a look at the USD breaking down and bitcoin trying to break up to new all time highs as the US treasury market looks like a cat waiting to pounce as it awaits the passage of President Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax cut and spending bill that is set to cement huge US deficits for years to come. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Head of Global Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today, we check in on the technical status of the US equity market, noting meanwhile that leading versus coincident indicators on the economy have yawned to one of their greatest divergences in the past 50 years, something that usually coincides with trouble. Thoughts on make or break time for Tesla, geopolitics, FX, US treasuries and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today, a breakdown of why US markets are stumbling so badly at the start of the week after some renewed menace on the tariff front from the Trump administration at the weekend and as US treasury yields are under pressure from Trump's big tax cut and spending bill clearing a hurdle in the House. Today's pod with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today, a blitz of news, from geopolitics on latest trade deal developments and more, to specific company news, particularly United Health and Meta, which faces possible major business risks that are perhaps underappreciated. Today's pod also covers the latest macro data, the big bounce in gold, the outlook for USD and JPY, huge tectonic issues for the US treasury market and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Michael McNair post on X mentioned on the pod.

John's latest FX Update. 

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Link to John's Mastering FX Webinar tomorrow Thursday, June 19.

Today, a look at how this Israel-Iran conflict moves toward a "conclusion", with the risk that Israel has maximalist goals leaning toward regime change, so the timeline of the conflict is more likely to remain extended. Elsewhere, we look at the FOMC meeting today and the likely outcomes, as well as how the market "pricing" of the Fed's policy trajectory may be very misleading on what actually happens. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Today's slide deck   -

Today we look at the equity market comeback now having almost come full circle as we are a mere few percent from all-time highs after a broad-based surge, but also signs of the most speculative names have been leaders, including the notorious Palantir. Lots to discuss today in the macro outlook, gold after the big correction, oil and even soybeans with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.

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Today, a look at where the markets are headed after yesterday's big capitulation in what was meant to be the macro trade of the year - the move out of the US dollar and US markets. Especially pressing now is where the focus may shift now that trade policy headlines are less likely to move markets. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

John's latest FX Update.

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Equity markets are shooting for the moon and the US dollar is rallying after the US-China trade talks at the weekend resulted in a 90-day ceasefire and temporary huge tariff reductions. We look at the implications across markets and ask whether this is as good as it can possibly get for now on the trade front, as this is a change of speed, not of direction. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

No slide deck today as we are trying out a new quick turnaround format for some days. Let us know how you feel about it and always happy for feedback: Reach out to as at marketcall@saxobank.com 

Today: extremely pivotal technical levels across US equities and in currencies ahead of a weekend that will see US-China trade talks kicking off (and where hopes are probably too high for significant developments). Also: coverage of the UK-US trade deal and what it really represents and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Sn9Ook   -

Today we discuss the US bearish case remaining intact as key resistance has held, signs that Palantir may finally be paying the price for its bubbly valuation, the latest rip in gold prices and drivers there, as well as in crude oil, the outlook for JPY,  an FOMC preview and outlook for Fed policy the rest of this year, the latest must reads and so much more. Today with Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GvSye7   -

Today we cover the latest challenge to the bearish case in the wake of Microsoft's huge recovery as AI spending commitments from that company and Meta helped lift broader market sentiment. We look at the next existential levels for badly wounded stock market bears after yesterday's price ramp, discuss gold, the latest on tariffs and trad talk prospects, the US jobs report today and Fed outlook and much more. On today's pod were Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/42V3jy8   - 

Today we look at the remarkable degree to which the market has continued to climb the wall of worry, the risk to gold prices over the next several trading days, what the market is looking for next from earnings and Trump administration policy as volatility has dropped across most assets and much more, including some links to great content for further reading in the slide deck. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jHvS8G    -

Today we look at the impact of Trump's big softening on tariffs against China as well as his declaration he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, asking whether this is a major reversal across the board or merely a big slow-down in the "direction of travel" toward a US-China economic decoupling. We talk gold, silver, crude oil, equities, currencies and key US earnings as everything has been roiled once again by Trump's latest rhetoric. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Yz632x   -

Today we look at more market volatility on the latest US-China trade friction and look ahead to the next key event risks on the geopolitical front as US-Japan trade talks are set to get under way and with Italian PM Meloni in Washington. We also wonder whether the US equity market is shaping up for the greatest bear market in a generation as market bailouts are likely no longer a major Washington priority, among other reasons. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo's Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jdtaZ6    -

After Trump's 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs, we have a short window of time to find out how the global geopolitical order will shape up from here as US trading partners scramble to make deals with the US on trade. Will they be willing to sign on to the US' anti-China policy as we now have what amounts to a US-China economic war until or unless until or unless we suddenly see a move to the negotiating table. On today's pod are Jacob Falkencrone on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on macro and hosting.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jP99HK  -

Today we talk through the impact across markets from Israel's attacks on Iran and how difficult it is to sustain a focus on geopolitics or trust the knee-jerk reaction. We also discuss what was happening before the geopolitical situation suddenly heated up as fresh weak US labor market data sent the USD overboard - or did it? A preview of the massive week ahead in macro event risks, the latest on the commodities space and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

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Today's slide deck.    -

Today we look at a historic, very bad day for US markets in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs as the market positions for disruption and widening recession risks. On that note, Europe is certainly at risk, especially relative to recent enthusiasm. Elsewhere, we talk through the FX market and how risk off may see some shifts in recent patterns, look at precious metals after the plunge in silver, discuss what OPEC+ just did that added to the downdraft in crude oil prices, and much more. On today's pod were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read John's FX Update from this morning, April 4.

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Trump's Liberation Day tariffs proved far larger than expected and have markets in a defensive posture for good reason. Today we break down why this moment has come as well as what to watch for as the ongoing impact of this historic policy move unfolds. Today hosted by John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.

White House official announcement on the tariffs: https://bit.ly/4ld2E3e 

Michael Every's latest after the new tariffs: https://bit.ly/4iSClO7 

Yanis Varoufakis on this once-in-a-generation moment: https://bit.ly/3E1VP3U 

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4lbxQ2T   -

Today we look at the state of the market a day ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements as the market braces for impact. We also discuss the outlook for gold now that it has tacked on another massive rally and run down the performance across the commodity complex in Q1, where gold was surprisingly not the top performer. The latest developments in FX, equity technical levels of note and our top must reads also in today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4iEdDRG   -  

Trump is supposedly set to go easier than originally planned with the reciprocal tariffs to be announced next Wednesday, April 2. There are few details on this story, which provided the strong boost to risk sentiment today. Does this mean that Trump has "blinked" on the tariff issue? We assess where we are and what to watch for across asset classes, as well as highlighting incoming economic data and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo's John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DLe6SW   -

The US market found some more solid buying support than it has in a while, but not yet enough to turn the technical tide. We look at what forces could drive the market in either direction, but suspect that US under-performance relative to a hard charging Europe may be here to stay for a while. A thorough look at FX, gold and silver, important links, the macro calendar and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX and Macro.

John's latest FX Update.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DwZZR8   -

Today we run down some small divergences that could spell near term relief on risk sentiment, even if there is a steep hill to climb to significantly reverse this market rise. We also discuss gold trading at $3,000 per ounce and whether silver is set for brisk and large rally higher if it can break above the 35+ dollar per ounce level. Thoughts on crude oil, copper, a great set of links for further reading and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's latest FX Update

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/43zRWgK     -

Today we look at the massive further slide in US equities, which has taken the Nasdaq 100 to the next significant support point. We also note the reasons that the US has been in for an exceptional pounding relative to the rest of the world, have a look at key commodities like gold, oil and grains, rundown the latest in and FX, the latest link-a-palooza and a VERY important event risk on Friday of this week. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, with Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

Link to Ole's COT Report analysis

Link to John's latest FX Update

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4bvm276   -

Today we look at the US stock market correction crossing its first key technical Rubicon as bear market risks ratchet higher. We also discuss the spiking Euro, Japan's likely desire to get USDJPY a lot lower, key commodities markets like oil, natural gas and copper and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Link to John's latest FX Update: 

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4hVKEbD   -

Today we unpack the historic paradigm shift as the EU and Germany have unveiled titanic fiscal initiatives that are altering the landscape for European bonds and the euro. Also, we look at whether there is a Trump put, and ponder whether Trump's moves on crypto and to supercharge money laundering risks are a feature as much as a bug.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4bsNZML   -

Markets are on technical and even an emotional edge as Trump tariffs have gone forward and as speculation swirls that Trump will announce something particularly dramatic at a speech later today. From currencies and gold to US tech and European defense, we have a look at what may come next, including the risk of a big risk-off "whoosh" here. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's latest FX Update

Ole's latest weekly COT Report update

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Today, can't help but turn more bearish on equities as the US trade policy issue finally adds some more bite and as the broader concern on the trajectory of the US economy may be picking up here. The US dollar is certainly headed south versus the euro again, and USDJPY is making a show of selling off - can the move stick this time? Thoughts on the Fed possibly cutting earlier than expected, Oracle blowout earnings and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DnFXrX   -

Yesterday's combination of Trump tariff threats and weak US data spooked the market further, as did the technical implications of a breakdown through first key support levels in the Nasdaq 100 index a day after Nvidia earnings. Today we run down the really critical support levels that must hold to avoid a bigger meltdown or even bear market kick-off. We also look at why some assets are moving as they are, and what to look at next with a very busy geopolitical and economic calendar next week. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. 

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/43cR9Ck   -

Today we break down Nvidia's earnings report. Long story short: its earnings don't look like they will be the trigger for the broader market direction from here, so now the market can do what it wanted to do with this distraction out of the way. Plenty more to talk about today, from the latest on Trump tariffs and US continuing to alter the geopolitical landscape to what is driving a huge ramp in one very old German stock. Today's pod features Global Head of Investment Content Jacob Falkencrone and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

Jacob's piece on Nvidia's latest earnings report

Jacob's piece on Tesla

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4ibC6x2   -

Today we look at the ugly rollover in risk assets as markets fret the geopolitical backdrop and perhaps rein in risk exposure ahead of the most important earnings event of the quarter: Nvidia's, which reports after the market close on Wednesday. We also talk the blistering pace of geopolitical developments and policy moves from the Trump administration as well as asking what Europe does next. On today's call are Saxo Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/431GGtt   - 

Today we look at the pivotal German election this weekend and a number of scenarios in what will inevitably prove a weak showing for the centrist parties. We also discuss the implications of Walmart's weak outlook and look ahead at the most pivotal earnings event of the quarterly cycle: the post-Wednesday close Nvidia report. The latest on FX and more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

Jacob's piece on Ali Baba's earnings. 

John's latest FX Update on JPY, German election and more.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EVhtGQ   -

European equity markets are on fire this year, and European defense stocks have lifted aggressively in recent days on fears that the entire transatlantic alliance is collapsing and will require a massive fiscal boost across Europe if it is to defend itself in a new geopolitical backdrop. We pick through one interesting angle on EU defense spending, break down the latest action in FX and commodities and much more as the world seems to spin faster and faster every day. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jWq1NY   -

Today we sift through the market reaction to Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, with the market celebrating their delayed implementation until at least after the April 1 report on US trade policy. We also discuss the mostly wound-down US earnings season, which has proven the best in three years, the big reversal in bond yields, developments in FX and some great links/must reads (see slide deck link) for those trying to grasp the Trump administration's risky strategy. Today features Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy with host John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.

Jacob's piece on BYD: https://bit.ly/4hE819m 

John's latest FX Update: https://bit.ly/3X3Axcf 

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/417UZv0   -

While we have made the USD bear case to materialize at some point, we don't have much in the way of confirmation that it will arrive sooner rather than later, even if USDJPY may have posted a significant top. Today, a look at what is needed to get that confirmation while also running through the news of the day and what to watch for next across asset classes. Hosting today's podcast is John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ECSW9o   -

Today, we round up Amazon.com's results and the refrain we are hearing from them that rhymes with Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet's complaints on capacity constraints and the need for massive further capital expenditures to build out data centers. And that being the case, how to position the DeepSeek news? Also on this podcast, Macro Strategist John J. Hardy lays out the US dollar bearish case as the US government will find that its chief priority is getting its fiscal house in order. Also on today's call is Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4gs9L4q   -

Today we discuss the weakness in US tech sector after the close yesterday on Google's operational results and huge cap-ex spending plans and on AMD's weak forecast. As well, a look at the frictions already developing after 10% tariffs against China went ahead yesterday, together with the risks from AI disappointments to China exposure in most of the Mag 7 stocks. Elsewhere, the US dollar is falling and the JPY is surging after US 10-year rates have crossed below a key chart point. Precious metals are also on the rise. On today's call are Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CyH5bX   -

Trump delivered on the comprehensive tariffs he promised at the weekend against Canada, Mexico and China, although they don't actually go into effect until 12:01 a.m (0501 GMT) tonight. That's when we find out how much the market is hoping that we somehow see Trump climb down from imposing these tariffs at the last moment. Today we discuss the quite modest market reaction to this momentous news and what to look for next across asset classes, from foreign exchange to equities, commodities and US treasuries. On today's pod are John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy.

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Today a quick update on another strong day for risk sentiment as the AI focus is reheating with a significant rise in AI commitments from Meta and even Intel showing signs of life. Also, a quick rundown on the important of today's US CPI release for May and some thoughts on what is at stake here if Trump's coalition is increasingly fragile and the implications if so. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's final article in four-part series on Rules for the Trump 2.0 Market Era.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40SLUGi

Today we look at the tepid market reaction to Trump's threat of imminent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as we wonder whether the market refuses to react until the tariffs are actually in force, thinking some last minute deal will avoid them.

Also, lots to sift through in the blitz of earnings announcements incoming this week and next, as well as some thoughts on the ECB, EURUSD and macro data in store for us in the coming week. On today's pod were Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, with Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Today we sort through the quite mixed counter-reaction to the DeepSeek news that hit the market so hard at the start of the week, noting the raft of companies that have now surged after the initial reaction as lower cost AI models are seen as powering lower cost AI solutions. We also look at the commodities complex, where softs and grains are stealing the spotlight. The latest on earnings, FOMC preview and more also on the show, now with the return of the slide deck (link below)! Today's episode features Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist.

Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40RG7Rh 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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The news of China's DeepSeek AI model suddenly gained critical mass at the weekend and triggered an avalanche of selling across the incumbent AI space as the implications of this possibly profound disruptor became clearer. Across the board deleveraging, with special intensity in AI-related tech names is the order  of the day as bonds found a safety bid and the JPY did likewise. 

On today's podcast were John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy.

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Today we look at the latest flurry of Trump headlines and whether we are any the wiser on where tariff policies are headed, even as the market takes some encouragement. We sort through some of the next questions to ask about Trump policy as well, especially whether he'll get what he wants from the oil and gas market: lower prices. Elsewhere, the market is issuing a collective yawn after the BoJ hike overnight. And we flag the big event risks of next week and an interesting US option market indicator that suggests some nervousness despite record levels in the US S&P 500. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy.

See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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