Explore every episode of the podcast S2 Underground
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Wire - October 21, 2026 | 21 oct. 2026 | 00:02:58 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: Yesterday the Iranians claimed that the United States and/or Israel struck a coastal defense site, which resulted in an anti-aircraft gun being destroyed. CENTCOM denies these reports, and there's not much from the Iranian side to prove it wasn't an accident or something else entirely. Separately, this evening another strike was reported in Sirik, though no details have been provided by either side yet. Middle East: Iranian attacks on shipping continue, with a handful of ships being struck over the past few days in the Strait of Hormuz. Around the region, preparations continue to lay the groundwork for hostilities to recommence. Over the past few days Israeli forces have conducted at least two sorties over southern Iraq, surging fighter aircraft into Iraqi airspace before withdrawing without conducting any combat operations. Analyst Comment: Yesterday, SECWAR Hegseth conducted a surprise visit to Israel to meet with PM Netanyahu regarding the future status of the war, though his exact reasons for traveling and the topics of conversation have not yet been disclosed. This afternoon unconfirmed reporting from within the State Department indicates that the families of embassy staffers around the region are quietly being relocated out of what are expected to be hot zones (such as Saudi Arabia). These claims have not yet been verified specifically, however drawdowns of diplomats has been ongoing for a while, with the State Department issuing increasingly more serious travel advisories over the past few weeks. -HomeFront- Ohio: This morning a chemical leak was reported at the MC Tank facility in North Toledo. Shortly before sunrise, large vapor clouds were observed at the facility, which rapidly spread to the surrounding area. The circumstances of the initial event are unclear, however at some point a tank containing glycidyl methacrylate ruptured and/or leaked which caused toxic fumes to cover the area. A 1 mile evacuation zone was placed around the facility containing the leak, and locals up to three miles away were advised to take a shower if they were outside during the explosion and were contaminated. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: So far, the response to the Ohio crisis has presented more questions than answers. During this morning's press briefing, local authorities did not have a clear picture of how toxic this chemical really is. This lack of knowledge is to be expected to some degree in the minutes after a disaster takes place; this specific chemical is not listed in the latest version of the DoT's Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG), which is the standard guide for determining how bad a particular chemical is during a disaster. However, analysis of the Google Streetview data available for the incident site reveals many isotainers marked with UN number 2922, indicating the contents of many of these containers may produce corrosive and/or toxic fumes. Local reports corroborate the serious nature of this incident, as citizens have reported burning lungs and eyes some distance away from the incident site. As of this afternoon the emergency response remains in place, and the investigation into the origins of the incident continues. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire Special Report - 1300Z October 21, 2026 | 21 oct. 2026 | 00:06:43 | |
//The Wire//1300Z October 21, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Today will be a very interesting day for the internet. Neither issue is worth undue panic, but these incidents are causing questions for the bedrock of internet security. In terms of what the average user should do, today will be "update day" for the majority of the planet. Anyone who runs internet-connected home servers, hobby PC's, or muddles in the tech world at all, will probably want to update their systems sometime today. For more causal internet users, the immediate actions that would be helpful are simply to adhere to good internet security practices: Enabling two-factor authentication for web-connected devices, not re-using passwords, and being aware that phishing attempts will be extremely likely over the next few days, which will seek to capitalize on these major vulnerabilities. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The timing of two major cybersecurity incidents taking place at the same time is exceptionally rare and very remarkable. To be clear, these issues are totally separate from each other, with neither one causing the other. However, due to the sheer scale of both incidents, it's possible that some sort of compounding effect could be achieved. One major global tech vulnerability is bad enough, but two on the same day is very serious. Knowing the rough details of how both incidents came to be, is helpful for understanding the seriousness of these events. The first incident revolves around a vulnerability being discovered within the ecosystem for issuing certificates for various websites. Under normal conditions, when a person visits a website (such as (https:)//www.google.com), a certificate is used to ensure that the website is genuine. Essentially, the web browser itself cross-checks that website with a trusted authority (called a Certificate Authority), which vouches for that website being genuine. This happens after the website gives the webs browser it's certificate, which the browser or app can automatically check against a big list of genuine certificates, to make sure the certificate provided by the website matches what it should be. 18 months ago, the Indian cybersecurity firm eMudhra issued a series bad certificates that had extremely low security; instead of being a long string of numbers which would be hard to crack, some certificates ended up being only the number 4. Since these certificates were genuine, and came from a genuine trusted authority, websites and platforms which trusted these bad keys are now at major risk of exploitation, and malign actors could forge fake keys for any website on Earth, and the fakes would be accepted by most devices (because the keys are genuine, they're just bad). To frame the magnitude of this incident with an analogy, imagine that a large safe company builds a safe that uses a master code to get into their safes. And after selling and installing a bunch of those safes in homes around the world for 18 months, it becomes clear that the master code to get into most of those safes, was the number 4. Under the right conditions, someone who finds the safe could theoretically guess the code without the owner ever doing anything wrong on their part. More importantly, a thief could access the safe for as long as they want (using the master "code"), and the owner would be none the wiser. Now imagine that a thief actually had access to the safe company, and could generate a master key of their own, that would work with any safe sold by that company. That's essentially what has been happening for 18 months. As far as how many websites have actually been compromised, the true number is not known. Theoretically, this incident has the potential to affect every single website and internet-connected device on the planet. eMudhra themselves state that zero fake certificates have been issued using this vulnerability. So in terms of magnitude, the potential scale of this is somewhere between zero, and every device on Earth. Considering that eMudhra themselves allowed this shockingly bad incident to take place (and not being noticed by two separate security audits), trust in this company is quite low. Moreover, this vulnerability will probably be made worse by an exponentially more serious separate incident that was disclosed overnight. The second major cybersecurity incident which was revealed overnight, revolves around a problem being discovered within the PHP programming language. As noted with the eMudhra vulnerability, when a user visits a website, a lot of stuff happens in the background. Certificates get exchanged, databases are consulted, and if all goes well, data is sent to a user's device to load the webpage. PHP is one of the programming languages used to make all of this happen. As of early this morning, a vulnerability was discovered within this programming language itself, which can allow malign actors to breach web servers, by leveraging a vulnerability in the way that PHP handles data from the server. In this way, the PHP vulnerability is much like the eMudhra vulnerability, in that both can allow malign actors to gain unauthorized access to systems. The differences are that both vulnerabilities are completely separate and unrelated...but in theory one could compound on the other, especially since IT departments are scrambling to fix both issues right now. The PHP incident is more serious, because the details were leaked before patches were written, and malign actors were indeed observed trying to take advantage of the vulnerability ahead of it's discovery. Normally, major cybersecurity incidents are not disclosed on a more widespread basis, until patches have been rolled out to fix the problem. This is to prevent malign actors which might not have noticed the vulnerability from knowing about it and capitalizing on it. In this case however, the vulnerability was so severe, that the PHP Foundation released the notice before patches went live. The British National Cyber Security Centre even went as far as to suggest organizations bring their systems offline until a patch is released...in some cases this vulnerability is significant enough to warrant pulling server racks, and websites/servers going offline completely, until the fix is pushed out. As of this morning, many government websites were taken offline globally, and throughout the day millions of websites will also probably be taken offline by IT departments as a precautionary measure, until fixes can be rolled out. In terms of mitigating both events, the most substantial risk will be for internet connected devices which do not receive regular updates. Using a smartphone or a regular web browser will be fine as mass updates were already pushed out days ago, before the disclosure of the certificate vulnerability was made public. The real risk will be for 'Internet of Things' or IoT devices: Smart thermostats, portable power stations, lawn irrigation systems, doorbells, smart TV's and appliances, utility meters, streetlights, dash cams, remote data servers, and many other older devices that have internet connectivity, and still use the bad set of keys. These are the kind of IT disasters that get technicians woken up during the night, and in both cases IT departments around the world are rapidly patching their own devices to fix the vulnerability now that two major cybersecurity incidents are public, and have the potential to become much more serious problems within the cyber realm. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 20, 2026 | 21 oct. 2026 | 00:04:05 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 20, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: With the implementation of curfews throughout some districts of Paris, substantial deployments of police forces were noted throughout the city overnight. Before nightfall, riots had already broken out in some areas despite the curfews, but in other areas the situation remained calm due to the overwhelming police presence throughout many cities. Counter-protests have also become more common after the chaos of the weekend, and many random groups of citizens have begun the cleanup and restoration of order in Paris. This afternoon, France announced the deployment of the Army throughout major cities next weekend, with soldiers expected to provide security during the wave of protests expected on Saturday. Europe: This morning an IT outage was reported with Google Cloud services throughout the continent. Within the U.K. banking services were most heavily affected, though many other random services were affected within the tech sector. The outages did not affect customers' money or personal accounts, but systems were offline for a few hours. The cause of the outage has not been specified, however several companies have stated that it might have been the result of a power loss incident at a data center. Ukraine: This morning Zelenskyy stated that the Pentagon has blocked/delayed the latest shipment of munitions for Ukraine. Specifically, Zelenskyy claimed that his latest shipment of Patriot interceptor missiles has been delayed due to a hold up within SECWAR Hegseth's office. SECSTATE Marco Rubio acknowledged the delay this afternoon, however he did not state that it was due to policy but rather a supply issue due to the currently high demand for interceptor missiles. This comes a few days after the Starlink scandal, in which Zelenskyy also accused the US government and/or SpaceX of limiting the speed of Starshield (the military version of Starlink), which the US has denied having a role in affecting. United Kingdom: Overnight the Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters to Saudi Arabia, to conduct missions in an air defense capacity throughout the Kingdom. Per the press release, British forces will not be conducting offensive missions targeting the Houthis in Yemen, but will instead be focused on intercepting missile attacks. -HomeFront- North Carolina: Last night the Department of Justice announced a settlement between the federal government and the University of North Carolina regarding their admission standards and academic operations. Per the terms of the settlement, in addition to abiding by all preexisting civil rights laws, all students will be required to take "mandatory antisemitism training". Per the exact terms of the settlement this training program was not described in detail, other than being mandatory for all students, faculty, and staff. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within the Middle East, preparations continue to indicate most regional players are expecting the war to reignite within a few weeks. However, the focus of this expected intensification is up for debate...by now it could just as easily be the Houthis which escalate the war as it could be the United States and Iran. This is most clearly demonstrated within Saudi Arabia. The upcoming Future Investment Initiative (FII) Conference has been postponed until next year, due to the threats posed by Houthi missiles and drones. This conference being postponed is a big deal; this summit is colloquially called "Davos in the Desert" due to the hundreds of billions of dollars that are on the line in terms of investments within Saudi Arabia. Canceling this summit is a major loss of prestige for the House of Saud, however Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman (MBS) is worried enough about the Houthis that the loss of prestige was worth the trade, to prevent very wealthy benefactors from being struck by missiles. With the United Kingdom now entering the war with the Houthis to some degree, this will present more flashpoints to watch out for. The Houthis know that third-party nations sending forces to the region is not exactly a de-escalatory measure, but they also know that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been bombing Yemen with the finest weapons money can buy for over a decade without much result at the strategic level. So even if the United Kingdom (and/or the US) were to kick off more strikes with the Houthis, another bombing campaign is not likely to put a dent in Ansar Allah's aspirations for autonomy. Even with the substantial missile defenses around the nation, and the supplement of British and American forces staging to help provide air cover in the desert skies, it's still not enough to prevent very embarrassing attacks by the Houthis. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 19, 2026 | 20 oct. 2026 | 00:07:29 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 19, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Canada: Saturday afternoon, a mass casualty incident was declared at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Wainwright, following a major incident that occurred during training. At approximately 4:00pm local time, a wildfire broke out in the training area at roughly the same time a strong outflow boundary was approaching the base. Within a matter of minutes, the resulting high winds caused the fire to shift direction toward hundreds of service members taking part in training operations. Due to the catastrophic nature of the fire, the true casualty count is unknown. A total of 4x fatalities have been confirmed, however more victims are expected. 39x others were injured, 19x of which are in critical care. Analyst Comment: The circumstances of the incident's origin are unclear, however claims have been made by eyewitnesses on the base disputing the origin of the fire. Officially, the cause of the fire is under investigation and has not yet been disclosed. However the press statements presented by officials have been extremely carefully worded to due to the ongoing investigations. Whatever the cause of the incident (either a training accident or a genuine wildfire situation) decisions were made which lead to the deaths of Canadian soldiers, so the investigation into what happened will take time. France: Riots continued to escalate over the weekend, as arson attacks and states of unrest remained constant in most major cities throughout the nation. Many government buildings and structures have been set alight, and looting has become commonplace in many cities due to the unrest. This afternoon, curfews were emplaced for the Republique and Châtelet districts of Paris, as more rioting is expected throughout the next few days. Albania: Mass riots have continued throughout the nation after the Supreme Court ruled that Jared Kushner's luxury resort project on Sazan Island can go forward. Protests began last week and have been intensifying for several days, before reaching a flashpoint over the weekend, which was spurred on by Prime Minister Rama refusing to resign. Yesterday the Supreme Court was burned down, after rioters breached the compound, and set the building on fire. Analyst Comment: This situation has been brewing for a while, and has been a major focus for Albanians for several months. The Kushner project on Sazan has been a major source of both protests, but also corruption concerns. Locals claim that their Prime Minister has been paid off, and that he's selling off major national real estate for personal gain. As a result, these riots will be worthy of monitoring more closely due to the potential for instability to spread throughout the Balkans. Middle East: Travel warnings throughout the region continue, as US Embassies in nearly the entire Middle East have issued more pressing travel advisories warning of an imminent increase in wartime conditions. Other than the United States, the diplomatic missions of most other western-aligned nations have issued similar warnings, indicating that preparations are being made for the war to expand at some point. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Early this morning a shooting was reported on 8th Street SE, which resulted in a National Guard soldier being wounded. Local authorities state that a street fight erupted in front of the Engine Company 18 Firehouse just before midnight. A vehicle containing a squad of National Guard soldiers was parked on the street at the time the fight broke out, with the soldiers exiting the vehicle to stop the fight. Immediately after the squad exited the vehicle, one suspect produced a firearm, which resulted in a small arms engagement in street, with three soldiers returning fire during the skirmish. One soldier sustained a gunshot wound to the leg, and the suspect was also shot during the engagement. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Many of the riots underway around the world are the real deal, and appear to be transitioning into more of a protracted state of global civil unrest. However, most of the reasons for the rioting vary widely between nations. In short, the various states of unrest around the world are summarized as follows: France: Student/economic protests turned riot, large migrant communes looting. France is the epicenter for much of the unrest, and the development and motivations for the French riots are complicated. The origin of the riots is multi-fold; these events started as student protests regarding conditions in schools, as well as more general economic concerns. At the same time, there was an element of children from second and third-generation migrant families, which were protesting government spending being cut for them in schools. These protests started under relatively low-level social terms, but after the first day this initial spark rapidly transitioned (within a matter of hours) into a series of much larger issues, and now, several different factions are participating in the fray. What started small has turned out the be a pressure relief valve for tensions that have been boiling for weeks. Students are engaging in bedlam in most areas, migrant communities are looting whatever they can, pro-Palestine and ANTIFA activists are conducting their own riots for their own reasons, and now, many regular French citizens are protesting as well due to the high costs of fuel brought on by the war in the Middle East. Perhaps the clearest view of the types of demographics rioting, are the raw, unfiltered videos from the riots themselves. Many people are emotionally and politically invested in avoiding the migration element to the looting and violence throughout the nation. Many videos indicate a lot rioters are of African descent, and even for those who seek to be as neutral as possible, it is challenging to find videos (not still images that can be more easily selectively framed, but raw videos) which do not feature individuals of non-French heritage. To be sure, there are a lot of ethnic French citizens engaging in the original protests that started this all, and many are indeed rioting as well. Determining exactly how much of the unrest is local unrest vs. migrant unrest will take time, as the situation is incredibly nuanced and there are certainly interests on all sides which seek to scapegoat their adversaries while also downplaying other demographics. As of this evening, this is even more complicated as pro-police demonstrators have gathered in certain areas to protest against the riots (protests which have remained low-intensity gatherings for now). In terms of the riots in other nations that are coordinated with the French riots, the unrest in Belgium and Italy are most similar to the unrest that is underway in France. Belgium popped off around the same time as France, due to a lot of cross-border traffic allowing easy access to major metropolitan areas outside France. The riots in Italy are also somewhat related, however Italy's problems mostly have arisen more directly from the economic realm, as agricultural protests regarding fuel prices began a few days ago, which presented the distractions necessary for looters to break into stores. Most of the looting appears to have taken place a decent distance from the farmer protests, unlike in France which has presented the old standby tactic of "peaceful protesters" starting off just fine during the day, but putting on masks and breaking things once night falls. Within Argentina, Brazil, Albania, Mexico, and other nations currently experiencing unrest, riots are being conducted for their own reasons, which vary by locale. Timing wise, many are speculating that it's odd for all of these protests to come about on the same weekend. However this is not true; Mexico's riots have been brewing for months, with several smaller riots taking place earlier this month. France's protests have been ongoing for weeks, and Albania's protests have been constant for several months. It would be worthwhile to examine whether or not some of these riots are being funded more directly, however at this point it's going to be a case-by-case evaluation which is not going to be easy. What is certain, is that within France the riots will continue for some time, and likely grow in severity as the main elements driving the chaos (the migration situation, and the energy crisis) remain unaddressed. Analyst: S2A1 ADMIN NOTE: Slight edit, the remarks on Brazil should have been worded better. Bolsonaro is obviously not in office anymore, instead of "resign" I should have said "concede". (as a lot of the unrest is centered around his son's quest to return his family to power). I should have made that more clear, sorry. | |||
| Intel Update - Oct. 17 - Course of Action | 18 oct. 2026 | 00:38:44 | |
Oregon Shooting GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/communities/bend-oregon-school-shooting-relief-2026#fundraisers Kaylub Giamanco GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/stand-with-kaylub-supporting-a-father-who-p-x7jh5 Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 00:41 - Strategic Movement 07:15 - Oregon 11:52 - Washington D.C. 14:02 - NarcoWar 16:23 - Middle East 22:09 - Courses of Action 35:07 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - October 16, 2026 | 16 oct. 2026 | 00:03:39 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 16, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Russia: Overnight, Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery again, with locals observing fires at the facility throughout the evening. Otherwise, Russian targeting continued as before, with strikes being reported at various logistics depots and gas stations in central and western Ukraine. Black Sea: Due to the rise in targeting of commercial vessels, Bulgaria has requested additional NATO assets to defend their airspace. Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov stated that Bulgaria has requested missile defense and anti-drone systems due to yesterday's targeting of two vessels off the coast of Bulgaria and Romania. Azerbaijan: The 7th Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia continued in Baku, which is a geopolitical conference dedicated to managing international diplomacy and economic projects in Asia. This morning, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, stating that Israel should stop their forced resettlement operations in the West Bank, and cease their territorial expansion ambitions in the region. Analyst Comment: This statement is incredibly important as China very rarely intervenes (even with words) to address such activity; Chinese diplomats are legendarily coy and usually take half an hour to get through greetings over tea, so a blunt statement that is akin to an order being given is, in a word...surprising. In the context of the wider war being waged in the Middle East, this comparatively bold statement is probably accompanied by a subtle warning...if the Israelis continue pushing their luck in the diplomatic space, China will probably more directly supply their chief adversary, which is Iran (at the moment). -HomeFront- Oregon: Yesterday afternoon, a mass shooting was reported at an elementary school in Bend. At approximately 1:00pm local time, one gunman entered the Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, and began shooting. Shortly after the shooting began, one armed and prepared citizen observed the shooter entering the school, and pursued the suspect into the facility. After making contact, the good Samaritan shot and killed the suspect. Nevertheless, three children and one teacher were killed during the engagement. The suspect has been identified as 16-year-old John J. Griffin, though no motive or manifesto has been released. Washington D.C. - This morning newly appointed White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia is reportedly transitioning out of her role after conducting her first press briefing yesterday. Her resignation has not been formalized yet, however President Trump confirmed to the press pool that he recommended her to reconsider taking the job. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: As the usual weekend targeting window opens this afternoon, indications continue to mount regarding another round of American targeting within Iran. This afternoon, crude prices spiked upon the news that Iran has placed military forces on high alert, and that the Israelis have begun digging in and distributing portable concrete bunkers throughout Tel Aviv. As of this afternoon, these tensions are mostly based on a lot of circumstantial evidence, so it's hard to pinpoint exactly what might happen (and when). Predicting the exact day and hour of a resumption of strikes is going to be nearly impossible, but more generally it's exceptionally likely that some form of targeting will be taking place within a few weeks, probably close to the midterm elections (either before or shortly after). In any case, weekends tend to be a window for more increased targeting potential all around, and the volatility within financial markets is another indicator of the uncertainty of how this war will continue. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 15, 2026 | 15 oct. 2026 | 00:03:35 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 15, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Russia: Overnight, Ukraine conducted an attack at Borisoglebsk Airfield, which resulted in the destruction of roughly 4-6x Russian fighter aircraft. Russia also continued sporadic strikes around Kiev as well as along the southern front with drone strikes targeting infrastructure in the vicinity of Odessa. Black Sea: Two more commercial vessels were targeted in drone strikes overnight. The M/T WINE TRADER (IMO: 8808707) was struck by a drone off the coast of Romania, suffering damage to the bridge as a fire spread throughout the superstructure. A total of 8x crew members remain missing following this strike. Separately, the M/T YARA J (IMO: 9221803) was also struck in a similar manner in the same general area. Strait of Hormuz: Strikes on merchant vessels continue as before. The UKMTO issued two time-late reports of strikes on merchant vessels yesterday, at least one of which involved a large containership which was separate from the M/V GFS PRIDE (IMO: 9349045) that sank yesterday afternoon. Yemen: Last night, Houthi forces claimed to have engaged a Saudi Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft over Saada. Ansar Allah has not claimed to have shot down the aircraft, as the missile was a narrow-miss, and the pilot appears to have survived the detonation of the missile in close proximity to the aircraft. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday, the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) levied a $1.2 billion fine on Bank of America, after the bank reportedly failed to enforce (or even report) money laundering efforts undertaken in violation of Office of Foreign Assets Control regulations. Analyst Comment: The Treasury Department stated that this was in relation to a series of money laundering efforts undertaken by nationstate actors (such as China) and cartels in Central America. The exact nature of what kinds of networks were being run has not been disclosed, however Bank of America has already mostly written off the fine as a line item, and no one has been arrested for knowingly using Bank of America resources to help cartels funnel money throughout their organizations. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the past few days, the USS George H.W. Bush CSG arrived on station in the Arabian Sea after conducting a short R&R port call in Thailand. The USS Makin Island ARG and the USS Teddy Roosevelt CSG should also be arriving within a few days after crossing the Pacific. In terms of aviation assets, nothing major has been moving around for about a week. Cargo flights into the region are fairly routine, though the baseline for what is considered normal military aviation has changed somewhat since the war began. No heavy bombers have forward deployed yet, but considering how far the United States has withdrawn from Iranian missile range, this might not be an indicator of much. The Carrier Strike Groups are holding hundreds of miles from the Gulf of Oman, the US airbase in Erbil is no longer an asset after the drawdown of American forces in Iraq, and Al Udeid Airbase has a lot more aircraft staged on the parking aprons as of this morning (indicating that strikes are probably not imminent within the next 24 hours). However some commercial satellite imagery companies have outright banned all imagery of Diego Garcia, the infamous base which has become one of the main logistical staging areas that is being used to continue the war. This ban on all paid future (and prior) satellite imagery is more strict than in the past as even during the height of the war, historic satellite imagery that had no intelligence value was still offered for sale. Now, all imagery has been scrubbed, at least from some American companies. The intense censorship crackdown due to OPSEC reasons is a fairly significant indicator that something is being planned which requires Operational Security in the first place. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 14, 2026 | 15 oct. 2026 | 00:04:47 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 14, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Ukraine/Russia: Mutual targeting of energy infrastructure continues as before. Ukraine struck the Saratov and Ryazan refineries yesterday, and Russia struck electrical substations in Kiev overnight. This morning, Zelensky accused the United States of limiting Ukrainian access to Starlink due to Ukraine's continued targeting of Russian infrastructure. This afternoon, Elon Musk stated that his companies have no control over Starshield (the military version of Starlink), but the commercial-grade Starlink has been restricted for offensive operations since the start of the conflict. Analyst Comment: This continued targeting is concrete evidence that the "energy ceasefire" never existed. Neither side is interested in halting the targeting, and the conflict is likely to continue for some time. As a result, the American deal for diesel is at risk to some degree, and the next flashpoint will be the potential targeting of tankers intended to transport diesel to the United States. Bulgaria: Overnight, reporting came to light regarding a sabotage attack that took place near Sofia several days ago. On October 9th, two masked assailants set fire to 11x Starlink terminals at the Teleport Plana communications facility just north of Sofia. The incident itself was deliberately concealed from the public, and only leaked after MP Ivaylo Mirchev stated the attack took place. Analyst Comment: Recent satellite imagery indicates that there are actually 18x Starlink terminals at this location, with this site being co-located with the much larger Teleport Plana communications and intelligence collection station. This is an incredibly important facility which is host to much secrecy regarding exactly what NATO uses this facility for. As a result, more details are not expected to come to light regarding this arson attack. Strait of Hormuz: This morning a containership was struck while attempting an inbound transit into the Persian Gulf. The M/V GFS PRIDE (IMO: 9349045) was struck by an unidentified munition which resulted in her sinking after uncontrolled flooding took place in the aft engineering spaces. Analyst Comment: Iran targeting a cargo vessel that was headed into the Gulf (instead of out of the Gulf) is another indicator that Iran is not just interested in the petroleum front. The overwhelming majority of trade arrives in the Gulf States via containership, so this is probably a reminder to other regional players that everything from televisions to Twinkies arrives on ships within Iranian missile range. Middle East: Houthi targeting continues in Saudi Arabia. The airports in Riyadh and Dammam were hit yesterday, after Saudi forces struck targets in Sana'a. The headquarters building for ARAMCO in Riyadh was also struck, with locals reporting a large fire being observed at the main office building. Around the region, politicians and diplomatic sites continue to prepare for a return to the more kinetic phases of the war. A few days ago, the Emir of Qatar urged citizens to prepare for a worst-case scenario, as increased targeting is expected soon. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the world, cyberattacks continue to plague grocery chains, as the hacking of IT systems in Europe has begun to spread to the United States. Within Europe, the hardest hit companies are the various subsidiaries nestled under the Ahold Delhaize group. As this major corporation owns many small companies, many of the IT systems used by local grocers end up being managed by higher corporate teams, which tend to be centralized. As several American companies are subsidiaries of the higher corporate structure, what started off as more direct cyberattacks on European stores, has also affected American establishments as well. For instance, the corporate websites for Stop & Shop, Food Lion, and Hannaford all went down this morning, due to the follow-on effects of the cyberattacks in Europe. When the parent company's data centers were targeted by malign actors, the subsidiaries also went down. As with most cyberattacks, truly attributing the attack to one specific malign actor is challenging, but the end result is effectively the same (a degradation of services). Thankfully, the effects of these cyberattacks within the U.S. are not yet as bad as in Europe. Within the EU, refrigeration units within grocery stores are held to extremely strict data-logging standards for food safety reasons, which results in most larger chains controlling and monitoring the temperatures at a central corporate office. This allowed hackers to breach the temperature controls, and defrost thousands of refrigeration units around Europe. In the United States, it turns out that our lower health standards do offer some benefit on the modern digital battlefield...no internet connectivity means fewer attack vectors. The FDA does mandate (and inspect) the temperatures of refrigeration units in stores, but does not mandate digital or internet-connected meters. More broadly, cyberattacks are likely to continue both in severity and prevalence. Every time a major election is upcoming within the United States, it's field day for malign actors, who might seek to benefit from a more active news cycle. Likewise, both the war in Europe and the two wars in the Middle East are escalating all around, which brings more incentive for malign actors to take the fight to the cyber realm. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 13, 2026 | 13 oct. 2026 | 00:06:35 | |
//The Wire//2100Z October 13, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Strait of Hormuz: Yesterday the UKMTO published a series of time-late reports regarding the targeting of merchant vessels in the region. All total, the UKMTO states that at least 6 different vessels were struck all on October 11th, as Iranian attacks within the Strait have intensified. Saudi Arabia: Following Houthi attacks, the disruptions to civil aviation continued overnight, with many global airlines canceling flights in and out of the region. Severe GPS jamming has been observed in Jeddah, Dammam, and Riyadh as Saudi forces attempt to use electronic jamming means as a countermeasure against Houthi drones. Qatar Airways has canceled all flights to Riyadh and Dammam, and the US Embassy in Riyadh has elevated their threat warning to "Reconsider Travel" due to the threats posed by drones and missiles. The British Embassy in Riyadh issued similar warnings, and published a 'duck-and-cover' infographic regarding what to do in the event of future attacks. Analyst Comment: Based on the current warnings and flight delays expected over the next week, indications are growing suggesting the Saudis will be ratcheting up their counteroffensives against the Houthis. This will in turn result in more Houthi targeting of Saudi infrastructure, thus the threat warnings that were issued overnight. Overall, the situation is deteriorating, and more strikes are expected over the next few days, as both sides have issued target lists of what they are expected to hit. The Saudis will be targeting the Yemeni Oil Company in Sana'a (which they have already been striking), and Ansar Allah (Houthis) will be targeting the airports in Riyadh and Dammam, as well as several Saudi refineries. France: Yesterday a major cyberattack was noted nationwide, affecting the refrigeration units used by a variety of grocery store chains around the nation. As these refrigerators were connected to the internet, malign actors were able to breach their control devices, and set the temperature much higher than was safe, causing food to spoil. The main victims of the attack have been the Intermarché supermarket chain (which reports 300x affected stores) and Coopérative U locations (which report 100x stores affected). Netherlands: This morning a series of suspected sabotage incidents resulted in the national rail network experiencing disruptions during the commute this morning. At least one signal switch box was set on fire early this morning between Rotterdam and Delft, which resulted in the line being shut down for some time. Other reported instances of sabotage were indicated elsewhere, which involved metal pipes being placed on other lines to shut down the tracks. Germany: This morning a possible hijacking incident was reported onboard a flight bound for Nuremburg. Corendon Airlines Flight XR456 took off from the Greek island of Corfu at 9:45 pm local time last night. At some point during the flight, the aircraft began squawking the transponder code of 7500, indicating a hijacking. The aircraft continued it's flight, landing at Nuremberg where authorities had already closed the entire airport due to the emergency. Some time after landing, German police stated that there was no threat. Analyst Comment: The exact details of what happened are unclear. No radio traffic was noted during the incident, as German police stated that all radio contact was lost with the aircraft during the emergency. Even the initial statements by police indicate they did not know what was going on either. The pilots switching their transponder code to the one used for hijackings is no-joke, and a loss of radio contact as well is a major indicator that something was wrong. There is a dedicated transponder code for the loss of radio communications (Code 7600), and while it is possible that a mistake was made in selecting the right code, if that's the case it would have been a very serious mistake. Due to the circumstances of an aircraft declaring a hijacking and not responding to radio calls, Eurofighters were scrambled to intercept this aircraft and escort it to the airport. Also of note, this morning drone sightings were reported at the Nuremberg airport shortly before the hijacking concern. More details are expected to clarify exactly what took place during this incident. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Last night, operators at the PJM Interconnection power grid declared an emergency Maximum Generation Alert, as generation capacity has become strained due to unusually warm fall weather throughout the northeastern United States. Analyst Comment: Last week, federal regulators rejected plans by PJM to mitigate the effect of data centers on their already strained power grid. PJM had proposed to cut power to large data centers during times of extreme stress on the grid, so as to prevent rolling blackouts. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected this idea, and is still working with PJM to come up with a plan to account for the higher strain placed on current electrical infrastructure by large data centers which have recently been constructed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the world of cryptocurrency, a major scandal is brewing surrounding compromised hardware wallets made by Ledger, one of the largest manufacturers of cryptocurrency storage solutions globally. Users of several different models of Ledger Nano hardware wallets discovered extra circuitry within the physical devices, which contained an eSIM board that was wired to the screen. When users first set up the device the seed phrase was logged as it flashed on screen, and was transmitted via a cellular connection back to the hacking group. For those not familiar with cryptocurrency, hardware wallets provide a form of offline cryptologic "proof" of what crypto is owned by a particular user on the blockchain. Cryptocurrency is not stored digitally on these devices themselves; hardware wallets are convenient ways to store the cryptologic keys used to access that cryptocurrency. In this case, Ledger wallets appear to have been "bugged" at some point in the supply chain, possibly even before they left the factory and/or distributor. This is the financial version of the infamous Israeli pager attack in Lebanon (which itself was a continuation of Project ELDEST SON from the Vietnam era). However, instead of explosives being implanted in devices, malign actors installed spy chips which stole the keys on devices, and transmitted that data back to the hackers. As it stands, this is a major scandal as the compromised devices were sold through official distributors. Ledger has confirmed that CryptoBilis was the main authorized dealer affected by these "bugs", which mostly serves southeast Asia. However once this hit the internet, users in Europe cracked open the cases of their brand-new/still-sealed Ledger devices, to confirm that devices sold in Europe by MediaMarkt are also compromised. Users have also reported finding suspicious hardware inside other models of Ledger devices, such as their brand-new Stax and Flex lines. MediaMarkt has pulled all Ledger products from their shelves while the investigation continues. So far, the true impact of this hardware breach is not known, but there are claims of upwards of 102 million dollars being stolen so far by the spy chips reportedly being found implanted in over 500x devices. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 12, 2026 | 12 oct. 2026 | 00:04:58 | |
//The Wire//2000Z October 12, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Ukraine: President Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy ceasefire", to halt the targeting of petroleum infrastructure. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have publicly verified this claim, and Ukraine has stated that any ceasefire depends on Russia to reciprocate. Poland: This morning one arrest was made regarding what is being described as an assassination attempt on Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as well as the Polish Defense Minister. The nature of the alleged plot has not been disclosed, and the identity of the suspect has not yet been released. Analyst Comment: The details of this case are not clear, as authorities have not stated whether or not the assailant had taken physical action to conduct an attack. So far, all official statements have indicated that a 60-year-old man made threats against the Prime Minister on social media, but no physical act of violence (or preparation for such) has been noted so far. Saudi Arabia: Over the weekend, Houthi targeting continued with more strikes on Saudi airports. On Saturday, Ansar Allah (the Houthis) launched one ballistic missile toward King Khalid International Airport, with the missile directly impacting Terminal 3. Video footage from the time of impact confirms that no warning was given, and the terminal was packed with travelers at the time of the strike. As a result, over 300x people were wounded and 12x people were killed instantly. The next day, Ansar Allah struck Terminal 4 in a similar manner. Saturday night, missile strikes were also reported at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, with unknown success. Separately, a total of three gas and petroleum facilities were also struck, including the Ghawar Oil Fields, the Shedgum Gas Complex, and the Tanajib Oil and Gas Complex. Strait of Hormuz: Strikes on merchant shipping continued to escalate over the past 48 hours. Several ships were struck over the weekend with a variety of munitions, and strikes continued throughout the day within the Strait itself, as well as the Gulf of Oman. Analyst Comment: At this point, there are so many ships getting struck daily in the Strait of Hormuz that it's challenging to confirm each one. The UKMTO has mostly been withholding reporting for several days, and only releasing "time late" reports at least a day after a strike takes place. The United States did strike one tanker over the weekend, however Iran has been striking several ships per day for about two weeks. -HomeFront- Gulf Coast: Due to the disruptions caused by the arrival of Hurricane Isaias, the Department of Energy authorized an emergency release of 4 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This latest release will take the SPR below 279 million barrels in the Reserve all total, minus whatever crude is drained as part of the 40 million barrel exchange that was authorized last week. Washington D.C. - Yesterday the Department of Homeland Security conducted a raid at the residence of Rep. Ilhan Omar as part of an ongoing investigation. Analyst Comment: No details or acknowledgement of the raid has been provided by officials regarding what this was about, however based on recent statements by the White House this could be related to the years-long allegations that she married her brother to secure his greencard status, or her own immigration status. More details are expected later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The escalation of targeting in Saudi Arabia is incredibly serious, and is starting to bring about long-term problems for the Kingdom. In short, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is in trouble, and if the Houthi targeting keeps up (and civilians keep getting killed), his inability to protect his nation is starting the threaten the throne itself. Missile strikes are bad enough, but ever since the East-West Pipeline was first taken offline by Houthi missiles a few weeks ago, the very GDP of the nation itself is at risk. Due to their main source of national income being mostly offline, two weeks ago Saudi Arabia requested a series of emergency loans totaling roughly $8 billion USD from various banks, just to keep the lights on in the Kingdom. The economic status of the House of Saud has always been a complicated affair, but generally speaking for a nation that is built upon a financial bedrock of crude....things aren't going so well. Ansar Allah expanding their targeting efforts to include airports is (unfortunately for Saudi Arabia) a very effective means of both taking the fight to their enemy's capital city, but also in exerting some ability to impact airspace thousands of miles away from the front lines on the ground. This morning a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) was issued for the majority of Saudi airspace, warning of continued fighting, and that the security situation presents risk to aircraft at all altitudes. Also, King Khalid airport remains fully closed for at least a week due to the airstrikes. Though the strikes around the region have been desensitizing after almost 8 months of war, the inability for Saudi Arabia to protect their own capital city is extremely significant for the political situation in the Kingdom. MBS has been unable to protect his nation's income source, and now is incapable of protecting the airport where his family keeps their private jets. If this keeps up, the House of Saud is going to face some very serious threats, not just from outside the nation...but from within. Throughout the war, MBS himself has reportedly been physically traveling between bunker facilities each night, and even though Saudi Arabia is not likely to experience regime change anytime soon, that possibility remains on the table as the tensions within government keep escalating with each Houthi missile. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - Oct. 10 - Digging Deeper | 11 oct. 2026 | 00:22:12 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:05 - Strategic Movement 02:24 - Europe 03:38 - Middle East 05:45 - Wartime Preparations 08:40 - Dire Straits 11:00 - The Numbers, Mason 15:34 - Homefront 21:01 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - October 9, 2026 | 09 oct. 2026 | 00:03:27 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 9, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Belgium: Following the widespread riots in France, protests have transitioned into riots in Liège. As within France, nearly all of the riots are being conducted by second and third generation children of migrants, who have decided to engage in their own form of student riots in Belgium. Similar riots have remained constant in Brussels, with riot police being deployed throughout the city to handle unrest. Saudi Arabia: Battle damage assessments indicate that yesterday's missile attack at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh resulted in the destruction of 1-3x commercial aircraft, and the possible damage of several more airframes. This morning more flight disruptions were reported in Riyadh, after another missile strike targeted the airport once again with unknown success. To the east, large-scale emergency flaring was observed at the Abqaiq Processing Plant this morning, indicating that an unknown incident might have transpired. No missile or drone strikes were reported, but Saudi Arabia has quietly halted their drone/missile alerts so as to conceal strikes on refineries, so exactly what strikes have been conducted so far is not clear. Analyst Comment: This morning, the USS George H.W. Bush CSG departed port Phuket in Thailand, and was observed steaming south. If this battle group is intended to return to combat operations in the Middle East, this scheduling would put her back in the northern Arabian Sea within a week at the latest. -HomeFront- Gulf Coast: Overnight Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane, picking up energy over the Gulf before it's expected landfall sometime tonight or tomorrow. Analyst Comment: In addition to the standard concerns of flooding and storm damage, this year's hurricane season is complicated by the extremely fragile petroleum situation in the United States. During hurricanes, localized fuel shortages always take place, but as the war in Iran has stretched our refining and logistical capacity to a breaking point, the addition of Mother Nature into the mix can cause chaos. Washington D.C. - This afternoon, President Trump announced a trade deal with Russia, removing the sanctions on the sale of Russian diesel in western markets, much of which is expected to be imported within the United States. The Treasury Department issued a license for American companies to buy diesel from Russia, with President Trump stating that Russia is to provide 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, with an additional 500,000 tons next month, and a further shipment of 1,000,000 tons and an additional 3,000,000 tons later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Whether or not the Russian diesel will help the global market is hard to determine at the moment; surely the lifting of sanctions on a major global fuel producer will alleviate some pressure in the short term. However the second and third order effects might be more of a problem later on, and this decision is a bit of a mixed bag that complicates the situation quite a bit. All total, the 4.8 million tons of diesel equates to roughly 36 millions barrels...which is not much. Depending on the season, the US consumes about 4 million barrels of diesel each day, so if all of this diesel is directly imported into the United States, this would supply us for less than ten days. Additionally, Russia also has an export ban on diesel in effect right now, and it's not clear as to if the White House clarified that detail. Questions also remain as to whether or not Russia can even increase exports to fulfill this agreement, but the proof will be in the shipments that arrive in western ports over the next few months. Even though every little bit helps, by the stated numbers this won't help the fuel crisis by much. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 8, 2026 | 08 oct. 2026 | 00:03:57 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 8, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: Nationwide riots have continued over the past 48 hours. various pockets of unrest remain constant in many major cities, with rioters burning debris in the street, as well as looting various commercial businesses whenever tensions become inflamed in local areas. Clashes with police have remained a constant, and arson events have continued in hundreds of cities around the nation. Europe: Throughout the continent, Civil Defense plans continue, with various communities and groups conducting training exercises related to the homeland responses to a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine. Last week, citizens in the town of Grums, Sweden conducted what they claim is the first overnight exercise testing out the bunker under the Edsholms Retirement Home, which familiarized locals with the concepts of shelter life. Over the past two days, Latvia conducted a nationwide readiness drill, testing out various evacuation routes and plans in the event of a Russian ground invasion. Similar exercises have been observed in Romania, Lithuania, Poland, and most other NATO members in eastern Europe. Middle East: Flight delays have been reported in Saudi Arabia, as Houthi targeting of critical infrastructure has remained constant. This morning, the airport in Riyadh was struck again by Houthi ballistic missiles, as the Houthis targeted the airports fuel point as well as parked aircraft. Videos from the ground confirm that several commercial airliners were destroyed during the strikes. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday the DoJ announced the creation of a nationwide initiative, the American Tour Against Hate, which is being led by the DoJ Task Force to Combat Anti-Semitism. The first stop on this nationwide tour is scheduled to be in Southfield, Michigan next Wednesday. Also in Washington, the Congressional Research Service released a report detailing the combat losses of equipment so far during the current war with Iran. This update indicates that previous data provided by the Pentagon was inaccurate, and that all total, 81x fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft have been lost or damaged during the war. Previously the Pentagon had claimed that 42x aircraft had been damaged or destroyed, when in reality the number was nearly double the figure stated in May. Gulf Coast: Overnight, Hurricane Isaias strengthened and is expected to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow night. Heavy rain is expected throughout much of the American southeast over the weekend, as the hurricane drives north into Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, a blitz of mainstream media reports were published (originating from Axios) claiming that plans are being made by the Pentagon to reengage targeting within Iran. Specifically, some claims state that the targeting campaign is planned for the next two weeks, before the midterm elections, and could possibly include a wider range of targeting options than witnessed so far. Some claims have stated that the decision has already been made, whereas others state that options are only being considered at the moment. Right now, these reports are based on unconfirmed rumors and leaks from insiders, and therefore can't be given that much weight considering the information war that's been spun so far on all sides during this war. The timing of these plans does align with the general atmospherics surrounding the conflict in the region, but if this is the chosen course of action, a lot more resources are going to be needed in theater before any major American offensive is conducted. The USS George H.W. Bush CSG is off station conducting an R&R port call in Thailand, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG has not yet arrived in CENTCOM's area of responsibility. As of three days ago, the most recent satellite imagery confirms that a lot of aircraft are still sitting on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, so those will have to be moved before any major targeting begins. Timeline wise, targeting kicking off again immediately after the midterms is supported by the forces currently in the region. At the shorter-end of the possible escalation window, strikes could take place as early as next week (if the midterms are not a concern), either by the United States or Israeli forces, if the decision is made to return to the war. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 7, 2026 | 07 oct. 2026 | 00:04:14 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 7, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Yemen: Houthi forces have recaptured much of the terrain that was threatened by Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) forces, the Saudi-backed, pro-government militia groups which had made advances along the Red Sea coast. A few days ago, PLC forces were observed running over surrendering Houthis with their vehicles, after a few skirmishes turned in favor of the Saudi militias. However, within a day, Houthi forces have pushed back PLC forces once again, using FPV drones along with ground assaults to slow the PLC advance in many key areas. Analyst Comment: For casual war-watchers, the Yemeni situation is a prime example of why it is wise to wait 24 hours before making judgement calls about which cities are taken. In the span of 24 hours, the Saudi-backed PLC militias captured most of the Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, to include some patrols entering the town of Mocha...before they were pushed right back out again by the next evening. Within this region, terrain changes hands quickly, and is just as easily lost as gained. As a result, this conflict will probably be a series of back-and-forth exchanges for a while. Middle East: Within the Strait of Hormuz, the now-daily targeting by Iranian forces has continued to escalate over the past few days. Over a dozen ships have been hit over the past week, and now multiple ships are being struck every single day while trying to make the crossing. As a result of this increase in targeting, two ships have turned around due to Iranian warnings over the radio within the past 24 hours. This afternoon, a ship was struck by Iranian cruise missiles off the coast of Qatar, much further into the Gulf than targeting efforts have been noted over the past few weeks. Analyst Comment: Despite this increase in targeting, narrative shaping operations continue all around. Most mainstream media sources claim that the Strait is fully open, and the Saudi East-West Pipeline is fully back in operation. However, Iranian attacks on merchant shipping have continued to increase daily, and the Houthi strikes on anything flammable in Saudi Arabia are probably doing more damage than the Kingdom wants to admit. Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but the situation is definitely not static; moves are being made and the war is intensifying once again, at least from the Iranian side. -HomeFront- Minnesota: This morning one individual was arrested for allegedly planning to conduct a terror attack. The FBI arrested Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud after a two-year investigation, which indicated he had expressed violent intent online. In September, Mohamud began making violent threats in conversations with an undercover agent, which culminated in the suspect being offered an AK-47 for purchase, to conduct an attack with. Mohamud agreed, and was arrested during the sale in a public park immediately afterward. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For those who hold the opinion that the FBI is incapable of stopping a terror attack that they don't plan themselves, the Minnesota case will not exactly help refute that argument. Per the press statements on this case, Mohamud was under investigation for two years...but the violent threats only emerged in September of this year, after he had already turned 18. So far, this seems to be a lone individual speaking with an undercover agent online, who also sold him a rifle and some ammunition before arresting him. Since this investigation lasted two years, it looks like the FBI was trying to entrap a juvenile, and groomed him until he became a legal adult, and they could arrest him. To be sure, the suspect did express radicalization and intent to carry out an attack, but there is no indication that he was actually able to do so without the FBI's help...if he was only talking about these threats to an undercover agent, this is not exactly an indication of a wider terrorist network (or even a particularly capable lone wolf either). Somewhat poignantly, his violent intentions are not out of the ordinary for the Twin Cities. As a reminder, there are many other well coordinated and well funded groups around the city with the means, motive, and opportunity to cause harm; the previous terrorism and fraud concerns throughout the greater Minneapolis area have remained constant threats for years. However, this individual does not appear to have been a part of any coordinated group and despite the good news of one less individual with nefarious intent being out on the street, this is not exactly the Bin Laden-grade takedown that the DoJ is claiming that it is, and the concerns of entrapment will probably grant the suspect a decent legal defense when this case goes to trial. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 6, 2026 | 06 oct. 2026 | 00:04:42 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 6, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Black Sea: Overnight, attacks on merchant shipping continued. Two merchant vessels were struck off the coast of Bulgaria, with one of the vessels sinking early this morning. The M/V ALFA WATAN (IMO: 7510884) and the M/V ABLE (IMO: 9001136), both dry cargo ships reportedly carrying grain, were struck by unidentified drones shortly after departing Turkey (bound for Romania). Following the strikes, the ABLE suffered a catastrophic fire that spread to most of the ship, and the ALFA WATAN sank shortly before sunrise this morning. The M/V DIOSCURIA, a passing ferry, rescued most of the crew of the ABLE, who had abandoned ship and were awaiting rescue in life rafts. As of this morning, the entire crew of the ALFA WATAN remains missing. The DIOSCURIA and the Bulgarian Coast Guard conducted a search of the last known location of the ALFA WATAN and nothing was found apart from three overturned life rafts, and empty life jackets. On the eastern coast of the Black Sea, later this afternoon a large oil fire was reported in the Russian port of Sochi, with local sources claiming that a tanker ship had exploded in the harbor. This is a developing situation at the time of this report and more information is expected later on. Germany: This morning, the former head of Germany's foreign intelligence service was arrested after allegedly engaging in espionage on behalf of a foreign government. August Hanning, the former director of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), was allegedly paying for continued access to classified material after leaving his post, using an aide to get him access to classified material totaling roughly 2,000 documents over a period of five years. These documents were allegedly used to produce intelligence products for a foreign government. Analyst Comment: This arrest is a big deal, and one of the most high-profile espionage cases in recent memory. This will be interesting to follow as the foreign government at the center of this case was not named. Red Sea: Yesterday evening one U.S. Navy MH-60R Seahawk was involved in an incident, with public flight tracking data suggesting the helicopter may have gone down feet wet just off the coast of Yanbu. Shortly after the helicopter began squawking the emergency transponder code, she disappeared from tracking services. The U.S. Navy sent out a P-8A Poseidon to conduct search and rescue, along with the Saudis sending a King Air 350C to also search the same area, though the status of the helicopter and her crew remains unknown. No official acknowledgement of the incident has been issued. Analyst Comment: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has issued a very carefully worded "fact check", which uses manipulative language to gaslight the reader. In their post on social media, CENTCOM claims that the reports of a "crashed" helicopter were false, but they subtly change the language in their "fact" portion of the post, to use the word "downed". Nobody is claiming that the aircraft was shot down (it was far outside the range of any hostile action in the region), but CENTCOM is using circular reasoning to imply that the flight tracking feed itself doesn't exist (which it does and can be easily cross checked). The U.S. Navy and the Saudis sending out search and rescue aircraft is more evidence that CENTCOM is concealing the truth of this incident. What is strongly indicated beyond reasonable doubt, is that a U.S. Navy helicopter went down in the Red Sea for some reason, but exactly what happened is not known at this time. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the world, the energy crisis continues to deteriorate. The CEO of ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia's state-owned petroleum giant, stated yesterday that "until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify". He also stated that global oil stockpiles are "scarily thin", and getting back to normal could take up to two years. This is a defacto admission directly from the horse's mouth, that things are not back to normal right now and this confirms what has been plain to see for a long time...the Strait of Hormuz is not nearly as open as one might be lead to believe. Lloyd's of London also agrees to the risk as well, with insurance rates for commercial shipping in the region continuing to sharply increase, as the daily Iranian targeting of merchant vessels has remained constant for weeks. Despite this targeting, Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers to ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman are continuing, even though the capacity of this operation is limited. Concerning the East-West Pipeline itself (the most reliable alternative to the Hormuz route), the exact timeline for getting some level of crude flowing reliably is not known. The Saudis have consistently lied about the operational status of the pipeline, and have claimed that it's been fully operational despite the strikes on several pumping stations. Some level of oil will certainly return within a few weeks, but many of these facilities will not be easily repaired overnight. Considering Saudi Arabia continuing to press their ground war with the Houthis via proxy groups, the Houthis will continue striking the totally undefended petroleum infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 5, 2026 | 06 oct. 2026 | 00:05:38 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 5, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Russia: Concerns are growing regarding an accident involving pneumonic plague at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia. A few days ago, one researcher at the facility died from the plague after accidentally breaking a test tube containing the Yersinia pestis virus. Analyst Comment: Though this story seems quite alarming, this is not to the level of outbreak just yet. The researcher who caused her own initial infection did so accidentally, and immediately followed the proper procedures for such an incident. She was promptly hospitalized, but nevertheless died from the plague a few days later. This will be important to monitor just in case additional infections appear, and 197 people are currently under observation. So far, the only infected person has been the original researcher who broke the test tube. United Kingdom: Over the weekend authorities issued a Section 34 dispersal order for the entire town of Gosport, effectively locking down the entire population of this town. This order has been issued specifically to protect the migrant arrivals in the town, as major deployments of police are underway to aid and abet the migrants arriving on small boats, which are being escorted into the country. At the same time the lockdown of Gosport was announced, large and coordinated groups of migrants arrived on the beaches in France, to facilitate the highly organized illegal migration during the time that the Section 34 mandate was in place. Analyst Comment: This is a major concern. To be clear, the Section 34 order is not to the level of outright martial law, but right now if a locals in the town Gosport were to take out their phones and record the migrant hordes being protected and escorted into the country by the police, the police could order that person to leave or be arrested. United Kingdom: Over the weekend, reports emerged claiming that Simon Andriesz was found dead a few days ago under unclear circumstances. Andriesz was a former employee of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's firm, who turned whistleblower after unearthing new data confirming Lutnick's direct link to Jeffrey Epstein. He testified before the House Oversight Committee, and his work was used to directly summon Lutnick for closed-door testimony before the Committee regarding his financial ties to Epstein. Previously, Lutnick had claimed that he had briefly stopped at Epstein's island for lunch on one occasion, however Andriesz discovered emails between Lutnick and Eptsein, indicating that they were exploring the creation of a business together. On August 9th, Andriesz posted this discovery on social media, and over the weekend he was found dead. The cause of Andriesz's death has not yet been confirmed by authorities. Saudi Arabia: Last night Houthi forces struck another pumping station along the East-West Pipeline, with heavy smoke plumes being observed by locals being emitted from the facility. Fighting continued throughout the day, with Houthi strikes being reported in Riyadh, Yanbu, and Jizan, which was prompted by continued fighting on the ground between Houthi forces and Saudi backed militia groups. Analyst Comment: Saudi sources claim that the East-West pipeline is still operational, however if the Saudi-backed militia groups keep poking the bear and making gains on the ground, the Houthis will continue hitting the extremely exposed and undefended Saudi oil infrastructure. In any case, a smoke plume 30 miles long is not exactly good news for pipeline repairs. The Houthis have already demonstrated multiple times that they will wait for the pipeline to be repaired, before hitting it once again, and will continue to do so until something changes on the diplomatic front. Persian Gulf: Strikes have continued on merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A total of two vessels were struck over the weekend, and two more were hit today. Also this morning the UKMTO reported one vessel turning back after being hailed by Iranian forces, and warned to not proceed further. Analyst Comment: If this report is true, this would be an indicator that at least the crew of this vessel did not have any confidence in the American abilities to protect them, so they turned back before being struck. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the weekend, the United States withdrew the flight of B-1B Lancer bombers that were stationed at RAF Fairford. This withdrawal was reportedly of an emergency nature; the bombers departed England before the usual refueling tankers had departed the United States to refuel them along the way, and unconfirmed closed-source reporting from personnel at the base suggest that the movement was not announced very far in advance. Currently the Pentagon is insinuating that this movement is being conducted for security reasons. However, this is almost certainly not the case. Right now, at this very moment, a dozen U.S. Air Force refueling tankers are sitting on the tarmac at Al Udeid airbase, the same base which got hit hard by Iran during the height of the war. This is also the same base that has so far been a key indicator of escalations...when Al Udeid empties out, major strikes are likely to follow within a couple of days. If the US is going to keep these aircraft in Qatar, there is absolutely zero chance that they would move B-1's from England due to being struck by Iran directly, or via proxy groups. Also, the United States maintains a significant presence at other bases in England, such as RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath. Both of these bases are arguably more important for the United States, with both having been used to house bombers as well. Both of these bases remain at a heightened security posture, but the American presence remains the same as before. As to why the US is moving these bombers, it's anyone's guess. It could be a de-escalatory measure, or it could be a feint and they're going to forward-deploy somewhere else. For launching additional strikes on Iran, the B-1's would be helpful (as they launch long-range cruise missiles and larger bombs), but not strictly necessary. B-2's can always deploy from within the United States and fly directly to Iran for precision strikes on certain locations, and considering that the main armament of the B-1B's includes the JASSM cruise missile, and the JDAM smart bomb (both of which are reportedly in short supply), the cost/benefit analysis of keeping the B-1's in the U.K. might suggest this deployment is no longer necessary. Either way, it will be interesting to see what other movements might take place over the next few days, as the war in the Middle East remains as kinetic as before. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - Oct. 3 - False Flag Season | 04 oct. 2026 | 00:31:25 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:04 - Strategic Reserves 04:30 - The Fairford Five 07:35 - Ukraine 08:18 - Hormuz Shenanigans 12:31 - Dodgy Statistics 19:53 - False Flag Season 25:40 - Strategic Movement 30:08 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - October 2, 2026 | 02 oct. 2026 | 00:04:19 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 2, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: This morning the United States and other G7 countries gathered to examine the release of strategic diesel fuel reserves, to combat the current global fuel crisis. Following morning meetings, the G7 nations agreed to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel, 50 million of which will be released by the United States. France: Overnight riots continued to grow in size and scope, with mobs increasing attacks on random citizens. Fire has remained a constant weapon, with schoolteachers and firefighters alike being doused with gasoline and set on fire, or having been hit with Molotov incendiary devices. Reports of looting have emerged in some areas as authorities are not able to maintain order. Saudi Arabia: Last night, an incident was reported at the Grand Mosque in Mecca. Initial reports circulated suggesting that a man had been arrested after being discovered wearing an explosive vest which failed to detonate. After a few hours, Saudi officials stated that one individual had been arrested for harassing people and "causing panic and alarm", without any mention of any sort of terrorism concern. Analyst Comment: At face value, it does not make sense for an Islamic terrorist to conduct an attack at the most revered site within Islam, and accounts of what happened very widely. In this case, the cultural significance of the site warrants further investigation to determine exactly what happened. In the videos of the incident that have circulated on social media, bystanders don't seem to be too concerned with evacuating, and the response by security guards is rather lackluster for this to have been a terror attack. -HomeFront- Texas: Following a cross-border shooting in the vicinity of Garceño a few days ago, a surge of US military forces was conducted this morning, reinforcing the border region with approximately 500 soldiers. Helicopter Assault Force (HAF) operations were conducted today, inserting several platoons to combat outposts along the border. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, indications and warnings are growing to suggest significant logistical efforts are being conducted by the United States and Iran, to prepare for a further intensification of the conflict. Earlier this week the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN-71) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) departed port San Diego, bound for the Middle East. The USS MAKIN ISLAND (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) also departed port San Diego the next day, also bound for the Middle East. The crucial unknown detail is whether or not the US intends to replace the assets on station with these new platforms. If this is a standard relief-in-place operation, this is normal and not an indication of much. However, if these new battle groups are not intended to replace, but rather supplement the assets already on station, this would be a major indicator that major escalations of the war are very likely within a few weeks. As it stands, the current disposition of US forces in the region includes the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CSG, the USS GEORGE HW BUSH CSG, and the USS BOXER ARG already on station in the Indian Ocean. Of these three, the BUSH has been on station the longest, having been in the region since April, and should be approaching the end of a standard deployment. Similarly, the BOXER has been on station since the end of June, and should be about halfway through her deployment. Considering the fiasco with the USS LINCOLN which resulted in her rapid withdrawal from theater, it's possible that the US Navy is playing it safe and trying to replace battle groups more frequently. However, if these new groups arrive on station and the already-deployed groups stay on station (which happened during the lead up to the war), this would put a total of three aircraft carriers, two amphibious assault ships, and at least one Special Forces Expeditionary Sea Base...a total of six flattops...in the region at the exact moment to be within the predicted window for an intensification of the war. In addition to naval movements, cargo flights continue to take place around the Middle East. Following the combat loss of the headquarters for US 5th Fleet in Bahrain, much of the logistical effort to keep the Navy supplied has been relocated to Diego Garcia. Concerning air defenses, Axios claims that the US has moved two Patriot air defense batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to bolster defenses in the region. The battery in Qatar was destroyed earlier in the war, and would need to be replaced in any case, and the relocation of another Patriot battery to Saudi Arabia would explain the sudden effectiveness (or existence) of air defenses that intercepted Houthi missiles last week. All things considered, purely in terms of the hardware that is moving into the region, capabilities are stacking up to support whatever (if any) escalation of force that might be in store for the next few months. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - October 1, 2026 | 01 oct. 2026 | 00:03:41 | |
//The Wire//2300Z October 1, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: The fuel crisis continues to deteriorate. This morning the White House requested France and Germany to tap into their emergency diesel reserves, to ease high prices. The proposal as described would release around 120 million barrels of diesel from the strategic reserves of EU member states over the next 6 months. Analyst Comment: So far, this is not a formalized demand, but rather an indirect request made by the White House. No European nation has officially responded to the idea, but many mainstream media reports suggest that the indirect threat has been made of cutting off diesel exports to noncompliant nations. France: Mass riots continue around the nation. Several days ago, protests began at schools around the country due to long schooldays and declining infrastructure. After the initial low-level protests began in Paris, civil unrest spread throughout the nation. This morning, limited protests and arson incidents had spread to Belgium, with students beginning to conduct similar protests there. Analyst Comment: This initially started small but after some vandalism took place on the first night, the situation snowballed from there to be more of an African uprising than a simple school schedule dispute. Now, a substantial number of the participants of the attacks are visibly not of French ancestry...most of the arson attacks are being conducted by the children of African migrants. Throughout this afternoon, the riots have expanded to include other non-student migrant enclaves. The mayor of Saint Dennis, Bally Bagayoko (who is ethnically Malian) joined students in setting fire to a trash can in the street, encouraging them to destroy more infrastructure. Many school officials and police officers have been attacked by violent mobs, and several hundred arrests have been made so far nationwide. As it stands, this situation is already very violent, and is only likely to increase in severity over the next few days. Far East: Last night, China suspended all exports of fuel for the month of October, effective immediately. Hong Kong and Macau have been granted an exemption, but all other export partners will receive zero fuel from China in October. Analyst Comment: This move will probably affect the decision that the United States has been weighing regarding halting diesel exports. China is not a major exporter of petroleum products, but Singapore and the Philippines are major importers of diesel from China, which is now completely cut off. Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are also likely to be heavily affected by the halting of Chinese exports. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Yesterday the Department of Energy authorized an emergency release of 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is an attempt to retry a sale that was initially offered in June, that did not pan out because oil companies did not want to commit to the sale when prices were at new heights. As a reminder, SPR releases are really loans. When a private oil company is given oil from the SPR to sell on the open market, they have to replace it with more oil than they took out. Now that the market is in a disastrous state, a lot of oil companies have not wanted to take on that obligation, because they think that by the time they have to re-fill that loan, it won't be financially viable (because oil will be more expensive than it is now). Since the SPR has been drained heavily over the past few months, the current levels sit at roughly 283.8 million barrels. As a result, if petroleum companies take up this contract for all 40 million barrels, and don't replace it soon enough, SPR levels will probably bounce below the Congressionally mandated limit of 252 million barrels. Whether or not companies will indeed take this contract is up in the air, but as it stands emergency levels are being approached, and concerns are growing regarding the structural integrity of the SPR caverns housing America's emergency oil supply. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 30, 2026 | 30 sept. 2026 | 00:06:36 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 30, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Overnight a possible hijacking incident was reported onboard a FlyDubai aircraft. At 0653 local time, Flight FZ1073 departed Dubai International Airport, bound for Tel Aviv. Approximately 136 minutes into the flight, the transponder data indicates the aircraft conducted a very sharp nosedive, losing over 14,000 feet of altitude in 37 seconds. Within the aircraft, reports indicate that the copilot stabbed the pilot multiple times, and attempted to deliberately crash the aircraft. After the initial nosedive, the wounded Captain was able to open the cockpit door, allowing passengers and cabin crew to subdue the copilot. Over a period of six seconds, a passenger was able to recover from the dive, banking hard to the north. Two off-duty FlyDubai pilots who were passengers on the flight regained control off the aircraft, and twenty minutes after the incident, the aircraft turned around over Jordanian airspace and diverted to Prince Sultan International Airport in Tabuk. The aircraft landed safely despite the sharp decent causing a significant portion of the rudder to break off. Analyst Comment: If these details are true, this incident was host to multiple aspects which are nothing short of miraculous. Based on the rate of decent, the aircraft was approximately 27 seconds from hitting the ground before a passenger was reportedly able to pull up on the yoke and recover the aircraft from the dive. The presence of two other pilots onboard the aircraft is also itself remarkable, as if the copilot was the terrorist, and the lead pilot was stabbed, there was no one left to fly the aircraft except the passengers in the back. Nearly all details are known via video recordings from passengers onboard the aircraft, but the exact nature of what took place inside the cockpit (and when) is not confirmed yet. Videos from within the cabin indicate both the pilot and copilot were severely wounded during the fight, and the status of both is not known. The nationalities of all involved are also important due to the current tensions around the region. Most of the passengers were Israeli citizens traveling back to Tel Aviv. The pilot (who was stabbed) is Indian, and the alleged terrorist copilot is Omani. Iraq: This morning, the Pentagon announced the completion of the withdrawal of the last troops from Erbil Airbase, marking the official end of Operation INHERENT RESOLVE in Iraq. Officially, the only American military personnel within Iraq are located at the American Embassy in Baghdad, with the diplomatic mission being the only officially recognized deployment location at this time. Analyst Comment: While the ending of a 23 year war is significant and worthy of further reflection, in the more immediate short term, the abandonment of the Erbil Airbase confirms prior reporting that the Patriot battery had been relocated from this facility weeks ago. The withdrawal from this critical air defense sector will probably affect American bases in Jordan, if Iranian missile launches continue. Persian Gulf: This morning the UKMTO released a batch of "time late" reports, confirming that a total of three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian cruise missiles while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days. Due to the delay in reporting these strikes, it is not clear when they took place, however several Iranians reported witnessing missile launches from Sirik yesterday. Iran: Civil defense preparations continue to expand in size and scope. The week of October 26 - November 2 has been designated Civil Defense Week nationwide, with various drills and exercises being planned among the civilian populace to prepare for three different scenarios: Normal natural disaster emergencies, a state of ceasefire, or a full-scale war. IRGC-affiliated social media accounts have also claimed that military units in southern Iran have been issued Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment, such as gas masks and decontamination kits. Analyst Comment: These reports are sporadic at best, and the photos from one soldier on social media are not exactly indicative of what the entire 600,000-man army is doing. However, the Iranians are not taking any chances an very clearly expect and escalation of attacks, possibly to include the use of more serious weapons. Saudi Arabia: This morning an incident was reported at ARAMCO's North Ghawar processing facility, with locals on the ground observing a large smoke plume emitting from the installation. No official statements have disclosed what happened, but no missile/drone warnings were noted by locals. Analyst Comment: This may or may not be the result of a drone strike; it could be the result of an industrial accident or exceptionally abnormal gas flaring. The Abqaiq processing plant at this facility is a major complex, and critically important as it's the start point for the East-West Pipeline (the other end being the terminals at Yanbu). By now, the pipeline should be functional to some degree, pumping an unknown amount of oil to the terminals on the Red Sea, but if this was an unplanned event of some kind, it might be slow going to get this pipeline fully back online. Syria: This afternoon, a major explosion was reported at a natural gas pipeline near the Tishreen Power Plant in Damascus. The resulting fire burned throughout the evening, and the power plant was shut down. The cause of the blast has not yet been publicly released. Analyst Comment: This follows yesterday's pipeline attack in southern Syria, which was directly confirmed to be sabotage. It's not clear as to if this pipeline explosion was sabotage, but at this point malign action is likely. Various insurgent groups within Syria have been hitting gas pipelines for weeks now, but no one group has claimed responsibility for these strikes yet. India: Overnight a major explosion was reported at the MRPL refinery in Mangaluru. One worker was killed and several others injured after a rupture occurred in a high-pressure tank at the Coker Hydrotreater Unit. At the time of the explosion, this refinery was already operating at peak capacity, to refine and process as much crude as physically possible at the site. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the United Kingdom, more questions than answers remain concerning two incidents which have captured media attention for the past few days. At RAF Fairford, not many details have come to light that can be corroborated with much reliability. The US continues to claim that this was a major terror attack that the US was involved in tracking, while British authorities claim that no explosives were found in the vehicles and the contents turned out to be drums of gasoline. However, this morning British authorities radically shifted their position, with PM Burnham stating that there are "strong indications that Iran played a part" in the incident. Despite these claims, all of the assailants are still free from detention. In Rotherham, almost zero details have been released regarding yesterday's explosive incident. The individual who was killed has not been identified, but authorities have stated that the incident was the result of a "household accident", without providing any further amplifying information. Due to the sheer lack of information, speculation has run rampant, but nothing is verifiable yet. Considering the very odd circumstances of this incident, more scrutiny on this case would be worthwhile, especially considering the heightened terrorism concerns around the continent. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 29, 2026 | 29 sept. 2026 | 00:03:55 | |
//The Wire//2000Z September 29, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Estonia: This morning federal authorities officially released the results of the investigation into an arson attack that was conducted at the Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn last month. The Estonian Internal Security Service stated that this attack was an act of sabotage conducted by Russian Security Services. Syria: Overnight a major natural gas pipeline was sabotaged near Deir Al-Zour. Local officials state that explosives were used to damage an isolation valve along the pipeline, which resulted in a fire that lasted throughout the night. As of this morning, the fire is out, but the pipeline is still offline. United Kingdom: This morning an explosion was reported in Rotherham, which resulted in the death of one individual. The victim has not yet been identified, and the cause of the explosion has not been disclosed. No further details have been provided by authorities, other than statements claiming that there is no further threat to the public. Analyst Comment: Eyewitnesses report that this was a very significant blast that resulted in the dismemberment of the deceased individual. This is a major red flag worthy of further investigation. In residential areas, there are very few accidental situations which would result in the body parts of a victim being recovered down the street, so the possibility of malign action must be considered. Also of note, the gas utility (Cadent Gas) issued a statement confirming that whatever it was, it was not the result of a gas explosion. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation, the fuel crisis continues to deteriorate, with multiple states enacting emergency measures to ease high costs. In Georgia, a state of emergency was declared yesterday, suspending the gas tax for 30 days, and bringing down prices by about 37 cents per gallon. Texas also declared a state of emergency this morning due to the fuel crisis, lifting the restrictions on the use of red diesel in on-highway vehicles, as well as to increase the allowable weight limits for trucks carrying fuel or agricultural products. Washington D.C. - Andrew Bailey, the co-Deputy Director of the FBI resigned last night. Bailey cited family reasons for his departure from his position, which was set up by Dan Bongino before he departed the other half of the "co-deputy" position last December. Within the Pentagon, officials have confirmed that a major data breach from months ago resulted in the leak of millions of service members' personal information via an unencrypted file sharing system. The Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) initially noticed malign activity on July 16, and on September 18th issued a data breach notice. This morning the DMDC confirmed that the vulnerability has been open since October of 2025, and the records of roughly 3-4 million people were accessed by malign actors. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, Iranian strikes on merchant shipping continued overnight, with at least one vessel being struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, indications and warnings are growing down south suggesting that an intensification of the fighting with the Houthis may be on the verge of escalating. Various meetings have taken place between Gulf states over the past few weeks to examine the Houthi problem, and as of this morning reports are circulating suggesting several Gulf states may be forming a coalition to wage war against the Houthis in Yemen. On the ground, the situation in Yemen does support this possibility. Saudi Arabia has been staging forces in the southern regions along the border with Yemen for weeks, and several other Gulf states have been making preparations for a further expansion of the war in Yemen. As far as the United States becoming involved, American involvement is still on the table following the attack plans that were in place two weeks ago (but were called off at the last minute). Nothing has changed in terms of American readiness in the region, and forces are still more or less in the same spot as before, with the chief concerns being the lack of sufficient stocks of interceptor missiles, and a shortage of bombs needed to wage a wider campaign. Whatever the Gulf states plan to carry out, most throughout the region seem to think that the campaign against the Houthis will begin in a few days. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 28, 2026 | 28 sept. 2026 | 00:07:44 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 28, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Ukraine: Substantial strikes on Kiev have continued over the past few days, with Russian munitions impacting several government facilities within the capital city. The Dobrobut Medical Center was struck this morning, and the main building continued to burn throughout this afternoon. Several gas stations around the city were also hit, along with various governmental agencies and scientific research facilities. In the far western districts of Ukraine, another Russian drone strike was reported in close proximity to a border crossing with Poland, with eyewitnesses at the checkpoint visually observing the impact. Middle East: The situation remains much the same as before, with various rhetoric surrounding diplomatic efforts remaining steady. So far, nothing concrete has emerged from either side regarding whatever indirect talks or messages might be getting conveyed. More tactically, fighting has continued within the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian forces continuing strikes on merchant convoys attempting to exit the Gulf. Over the weekend, American efforts to get larger convoys through the Strait increased, along with Iranian attempts to strike these ships. Several cruise missile launches were noted by locals, though it is not clear as to if any vessels were struck. United Kingdom: Questions remain following the incident at RAF Fairford, with very little information being conveyed to the public throughout the day. The suspects have not been identified publicly, and the general situation of what took place is not fully clear. Counterterrorism police have stated that the five suspects that were arrested, have been granted bail and released from detention while the investigation continues. Unconfirmed reports also suggest that forensic analysis of the materials found in the vans outside the airbase did not contain explosives, but this has not yet been confirmed via official statements. Furthermore, President Trump made statements this morning implying that this was a real terror attack, though he did not state whether or not he received this information from official British channels or from his inner circle. British authorities have stated that the reason for the discovery of the suspects was due to the actions of a concerned citizen, and that these individuals were not rolled up as part of trigger-based criteria, or an ongoing surveillance effort. This afternoon, other reports from locals emerged claiming that they were warned about the potential for attacks on the base in the days leading up to the incident. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: So far, an intense amount of sheer insanity has hit the timeline regarding the RAF Fairford saga, which is largely the result of the sheer lack of information and the confusing nature of what actually happened. On the one hand, some governmental sources claim that an attack was foiled by the farmer who found the individuals, but other sources claim that intelligence agencies were watching these suspects for some time. Clearly, discrepancies in the official story exist, and an objective approach is still called for to determine what is really happening...because this might not be over just yet. Based on what little evidence is in the public eye, there are a few possible explanations for what happened: Theory 1- A genuine terror attack was foiled by a prepared citizen before it could get underway. As it stands, determining exactly which theory bears more weight is challenging, but as noted this morning, there are a lot of data points that don't make sense if this were a terror attack. Likewise, the "fuel theft" theory might not be correct either, but this theory certainly cannot be dismissed and most of the evidence does support this theory. Also, there is a history of thieves stealing fuel specifically from American bases in Europe, with a major fuel theft ring being busted in Romania five years ago. Similarly, diesel prices today in the U.K. reached a historical record, reaching more than 199.18p/liter (roughly the equivalence of $10 American per gallon). This is merely tangential to the exact incident at Fairford, but it is important to know in a broader sense. The release of the assailants on bail is not really an indicator of much either, as the British government probably would release legitimate terrorists and diesel thieves alike. Another non-helpful detail is the list of charges themselves. All five men were arrested under suspicion of Offenses under the Explosives Act, as well as Section 5 of the Terrorism Act of 2006. Both laws are catch-all legal codes, and the terms by which both laws are applied are extremely broad, so being held (without charge) under these laws is not entirely proof of much without amplifying information. To balance out all factors by examining one detail which does NOT directly support the diesel theft theory, locals report that RAF Fairford was actually at a higher Force Protection (FPCON) level than normal this week. Though the exact timeline is critically important (but not confirmed yet), the base was allegedly at a heightened state of alert before the incident involving the three vans. Daring to go out on a limb to interpret this data point, it's possible that the base was quietly preparing for a terror attack, and some idiots stealing fuel just let the cat out of the bag regarding what the base had secretly being preparing for. It's possible that the base responded to this threat, thinking it was "the one" but in reality it was something unrelated. Two things can be true at the same time; the base could have been expecting a major attack, and jumped the gun on some idiots with fuel cans. The off-the-cuff statements by President Trump also support this eventuality; maybe he thought that this was indeed the attack that had been expected, and jumped the gun himself based on media reports. This leads into the real danger with events like this: If this was not a genuine terror attack, but instead just some rather brazen thieves, any actual terrorist group that's out there just went underground and are hardening their security practices. Due to the internet getting spun up over this incident, real terrorists have learned quite a bit and they also now know just how primed society is for a real attack. Likewise, any activist groups now know that they will get their own bright and shiny news helicopter to photograph their propaganda banners, if they were to try another breach of an RAF facility, like the Palestine Action group has been known to do. At the end of the day, the truth of what actually happened is the only thing that matters, because truth helps us to determine where future risks may lie. If this was a deliberate terror attack, a certain course of action would be indicated. If this was NOT a terror attack, a different course of action would be a better fit, because other terrorists are probably out there waiting. In the early hours after what seems like a major incident like this, no one can be blamed for making decisions out of an abundance of caution. In most cases, it is wise to over-assess the threat during the heat of the moment, and then walk back the assessment to more reasonable ground once the fog of war clears and more information becomes available. In this case, the only thing worse than catching a group of terrorists, is not catching a group of terrorists, who can then learn from the situation and alter their attack plans accordingly. With tensions palpably high throughout the continent, it would make perfect sense for this type of overreaction to take place. The United Kingdom is currently facing many serious disasters. From the importation of millions of people who seek to cause harm, to the aging military infrastructure that has been unable to keep up with modern war in the homeland, the U.K. certainly has problems. Like most western nations at this point, public trust in government is also at an all-time low and the British government specifically has a long track record of covering up incidents like this, which might cast decision makers in a bad light. Whatever the truth is, it will eventually come out one way or another. Clearly, if the US is increasing FPCON levels at overseas bases (levels which have varied over the past few months) a genuine attack is expected. Focusing on idiots stealing fuel could be a distraction from a real attack, which could strike at any time. Constant vigilance is recommended as more generally, the western world has been primed for terror attacks for some time. The hard part is knowing which incidents are genuine, and which events are not what they seem. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 28, 2026 - 1300Z Priority | 28 sept. 2026 | 00:09:13 | |
//The Wire//1300Z September 28, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- United Kingdom: Yesterday a possible terror attack was foiled at Fairford Airbase, after a group of men were discovered acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the base. Local authorities state that a local farmer visually observed three vans parked in the roadway just outside the base. When the farmer approached the vehicles blocking the road, a group of masked men fled from the scene. After the alarm was raised, authorities responded and a total of five men were detained after being found hiding in the woods near the van site. A search of their vans revealed large containers of hazardous material, which prompted a mass evacuation of the local area. A total of 85x homes were evacuated for several hours while EOD personnel examined the contents of the vans, with residents being allowed to return to their homes last night. All five suspects have been detained, and government officials have declined to officially attribute motive. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, many of the details as presented to the public either are not clear, or do not make much sense in terms of what attack might have been planned. Right now, the finger is being pointed at Iran for this incident for obvious reasons, however before attribution can be laid on any group or nation, the basic facts of the case must be ironed out. Government officials and media groups are insinuating that this was a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED) attack that was foiled before it could materialize. Other claims are being made suggesting that this incident is not terrorism...but rather a group of thieves who were trying to steal diesel from the farm that they were discovered at. Examining the Most Deadly theory first, if it was a VBIED attack, it would be one of the most unorthodox VBIED attacks in history, for many different reasons. First of all, multiple people being located in each vehicle is odd; these types of attacks almost never result in multiple attackers being located in the same vehicle...it's almost always just one person inside the VBIED. If multiple people are to take part in an attack, it would have made more sense for the additional personnel to travel to the site in separate vehicles, to conduct a more complex attack (such as the infamous Bataclan attack back in 2015). In this case however, local authorities have not stated whether or not any small arms were found inside the vehicles, and no ideological material (such as flags, banners, or other paraphernalia) was found either. Additionally, the local farmer who claims to have been the original source for visually observing these individuals stated that she initially became suspicious after these men were seen wearing hoods and masks. If this observation is true (and it probably is), this is another detail that does not make sense. VBIED attacks are usually a one-way trip, and therefore the attackers aren't normally concerned with keeping their identity a secret. On the contrary, they usually want to be known publicly as martyrs, so wearing masks goes against nearly all other similar attacks. Furthermore, the attackers were spotted by the farmer blocking the roadway, and fled from the scene on foot after the farmer drove up on them. This is once again another clue that something is amiss. Normally, once a terrorist begins moving into the final stages of their attack and starts maneuvering to the attack site, a series of events is in place that would be difficult to stop. Once they've committed to the attack, violence from authorities is usually the only thing that can stop an attack at that point. Following the narrative as presented, five very physically fit Military Aged Males spent months planning an attack, had obtained three vehicles packed with explosives, had arrived at the attack site, and were preparing the attack...but were shooed away by an unarmed British lady right as they were about to detonate. This framing makes absolutely zero sense unless the story as presented is missing large and very critical details. Another discrepancy is the exact location of where the vehicles were discovered blocking the road. The farmer who made the discovery found these men and their vehicles at a junction on Horcott Road, a quiet English lane just to the east of the base itself. This road is nowhere near a main entrance to the facility. Speculating a bit (and following the VBIED theory), it is possible that the attackers intended to attack the perimeter fence itself, and not a main gate. Right at the junction where the vehicles were parked is a farm which features a small path that leads somewhat close to the perimeter fence itself. However, based on the satellite imagery (which the attackers surely would have had) this is a rather poor attack site. There is no High-Speed Avenue of Approach, and even if they detonated their cargo right where they were sitting, it's not very likely that any military aircraft at the base would have been damaged (although a LOT of citizens would have been killed). There are several other points where the attackers could have breached the perimeter, including one site that is directly on a main road, easily accessible, and offered absolutely zero resistance to a vehicle ramming through the flimsy fence to drive directly onto the runway itself. If the attackers were dedicated enough to fill three vans with explosives in an attempt to carry out one of the most substantial IED attacks in British history...they would have had to drive past one of the most devastatingly vulnerable parts of the base, to pick a far less effective target. Now that the jig is up and base security is heightened, there is no risk to pointing out this glaring vulnerability, because base security have parked heavy vehicles near all of the gates that are easy to ram through. This indicates that the vulnerabilities along the base perimeter were genuine...and the alleged terrorists did not choose to exploit them for some reason. Finally, the vehicles themselves provide a major clue which adds helpful context that must be considered in the broader context of what might have happened. At least one of the vans was marked with the logo of "Fuel 2You" a fuel delivery company, which provides fueling services to machinery and industrial sites, for customers who need small fuel deliveries. However, the logo is NOT the same as the company...they misspelled the name. The vans are marked with "Fuel 2YOU", but the actual company is stylized as "FUEL2U" with the letter "U". The logo is also green in the United Kingdom; the red logo that the suspects copied is from an American company. This small detail alone is the strongest evidence of malign action. Camouflage is an act that, when discovered, betrays intent to conceal something. And in this case, it's fantastic camouflage, because if a terrorist were to be pulled over with barrels full of flammable liquid, there is no better camouflage than to take on the identity of a company that is known for operating mobile gas stations. The problem is that the suspects googled "Fuel 2 You" and got the logo from the American company, instead of the British company that is called "Fuel2U". The actual company released a statement confirming that their company likeness was used by the suspects without their permission, and that these vehicles had no affiliation with their company whatsoever. As a result of this final detail, the suspects were almost certainly up to no good, but exactly what they were planning is up for debate and will have to be determined later on. The use of camouflage on their vans is a clever trick that would support either the VBIED theory or the diesel theft theory, but adding up all of the details that are known, every factor lines up more with the diesel theft theory than the VBIED theory. Speculating on the diesel theft theory, everything so far makes sense. A band of thieves masquerading as a fuel delivery service company, and using that as cover to steal fuel would be a rather slick criminal operation (that is, if they weren't dumb enough to use the wrong logo). Since the suspects were captured alive, it is certain that some information will be obtained, but for now a lot of guesswork is required both to determine what actually was being planned, and also what future threats might be still on the horizon. The discrepancies in the other details of the case indicate that this case is not as cut-and-dry as depicted in the media...there is very clearly something that the authorities are not telling the public. This does not necessarily indicate much on it's own; there is certainly enough wiggle room in the official story for everything to technically be true. Maybe the attackers got lost, or had a breakdown, or were not that great at planning. Maybe they weren't trying to conduct an attack at the time of their discovery, and were instead trying to stage IEDs for later on. On the other hand, it's also possible that these individuals were not terrorists, but rather thieves attempting to steal fuel from the farm at which they were caught. As it stands, the possibilities vary widely, and until more details are known we just don't know. More broadly, this incident is a high profile matter that will have several follow-on effects even if it was just diesel theft. First and foremost, the American B-1B bombers will probably be moved around the base, since news helicopters revealed where they are parked. Fairford is not the only base where American bombers are located, and these assets are rotated around fairly regularly anyway. Random Antiterrorism Measures (RAM) are certain to increase at | |||
| Intel Update - Sep. 26 - Magic Dirt | 28 sept. 2026 | 00:33:50 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 00:44 - Europe 05:36 - Illegal Surveillance 06:56- UNGA 08:10 - Media Ban 09:28 - Ethiopia 17:38 - Middle East 19:38 - Magic Dirt 26:31 - Calm Before the Storm 29:52 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - September 25, 2026 | 25 sept. 2026 | 00:04:51 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 25, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Baltic Sea: Tensions are high as a series of escalations have remained constant between NATO and Russia. Overnight a flight of Russian Tu-134 transport aircraft being escorted by fighters was observed patrolling over the Gulf of Finland, prompting Finland and Sweden to scramble fighters to intercept and identify the Russian aircraft. Analyst Comment: This was the first time a joint identification mission was carried out between Finland and Sweden, but more generally this is a routine mission set and not really anything out of the ordinary. However, as the tensions around the continent remain high and European leaders have issued serious statements over the past few days urging war, these standard identification missions are usually the tip of the spear in terms of the potential for sharp escalations to occur. Fighter aircraft intercepting each other tends to be an opportunity for nations to keep up more active "foreign relations", and an increase in flights over international waters tends to be a barometer for determining how serious nations are with regard to their rhetoric. As it stands, a lot of bluster is going around between NATO and Russia, which will probably get more intense over the next few weeks. Russia: Overnight, Ukraine increased attacks on Russian infrastructure in retaliation for last night's strikes in Kiev. Ukrainian drones targeted petroleum refineries in Perm and Rostov. A chemical plant was also struck in Voronezh, and a factory was hit in Ulyanovsk. In response, Russia continued strikes in and around Kiev, most notably targeting a McDonald's warehouse. Analyst Comment: The strikes conducted by Ukraine were the most significant reported in a few weeks, all of which were conducted hundreds of miles from the front lines. The continual Ukrainian strikes on Russian petroleum infrastructure despite President Trump's order to cease these attacks is quite interesting, and highlights the frustrations within the United States regarding the administration of the war. At the moment, many are pointing the finger at Zelensky for his open defiance of the United States regarding strikes on Russian refineries, but reading between the lines in a larger sense, these strikes are also probably not explicitly and solely Zelensky's decision. Looking within, if the US genuinely wants to stop diesel refineries from getting hit (even Russian ones) a quick phone call to Langley is probably more effective in stopping Ukrainian targeting than anything else. China: Yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel, raising the national price cap for the second time in two weeks, bringing fuel prices to levels roughly 24-26% higher than pre-war levels. Middle East: Overnight Houthi forces launched a total of 6x ballistic missiles toward various targets in Saudi Arabia. Saudi forces intercepted all missiles, with no impacts being reported on the ground. Analyst Comment: Thankfully for the Saudis, this time missile defenses were effective at neutralizing the threat. However, this latest attack has strained the newly-signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which is a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Both Pakistan and Turkey are in a tough spot, because this new agreement is essentially the Arab version of NATO's Article 5 in that an attack on one, is treated as an attack on all. Neither Turkey nor Pakistan want to become involved in the Houthi crisis, and as a result have treated the Houthi problem as a "preexisting condition" which is not covered by their new defense policy. Either way, it's semantics at the end of the day, and the biggest threat to Saudi Arabia at present, is the Houthis. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the past few days, mainstream media reporting has claimed to have leaked emails describing a potential American ground invasion of Cuba. While this sounds fantastical at face value (which is not helped by the lack of any corroborating sources being publicly available), this has been on the table for some time. Right now, the origin for these claims is a single CBS news report, which references internal Army communications concerning this potential campaign. Examining the raw data, the current situation in the region does not indicate an imminent invasion or other military campaign. There have been no increases in observable aircraft staging in Florida, nor have there been any irregular troop movements to the region. The US Navy is currently not staging forces for an expected increase in operations within SOUTHCOM, and all naval deployments so far seem to be routine. There has been an observable increase in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights around Cuba for a few months, but nothing that indicates anything serious. In terms of the likelihood of American intervention in Cuba, the likelihood must be considered in the context of the past few months of rhetoric. President Trump quite literally stated back in March that "Cuba's going to be next", and various statements over the past few months have rather strongly depicted American aspirations on the island. Whether or not the US intends to actually follow through on the desires to seize the island (or do something else) is anybody's guess, but it's not likely to happen anytime soon in any case. For the moment however, posturing and pressure are likely to continue, and probably will escalate over the next few weeks. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 24, 2026 | 24 sept. 2026 | 00:03:11 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 24, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Ukraine: Major missile strikes were reported in Kiev overnight. Several Iskander missiles struck targets around the city, targeting factories and various production facilities. Additionally, at least four different Zircon hypersonic missile strikes were reported, in addition to the short range ballistic missiles. Poland: Overnight, a sabotage attack was reported at a Starlink communications hub south of Warsaw. Unidentified assailants set a generator on fire, along with a power distribution hub on site. This site is owned and operated by Exatel (the state-owned telecoms company) and functioned as a ground control station for the Polish military's use of Starlink. This attack took place at roughly the same time as the heavy missile strikes in Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that the attack is being treated as an act of sabotage. Also in Poland a stabbing attack was reported this morning at a Benedictine Abbey in the town of Jaroslaw. One assailant attacked two priests on the grounds of the monastery, after stealing a knife from the kitchen. During the fray, a total of three clergy and two laypeople were wounded. One of the Sisters of the abbey stated that Father Stanisław was killed during the attack, and Father Marek remains in critical condition. The assailant was detained at the scene and was not identified by name. However local authorities state that the attacker is a Ukrainian national. Europe: Following the intense targeting campaign between Russia and Ukraine overnight several runaway drones were reported, striking third party nations around the region. This morning a drone struck a wooded area near the border in Romania, and another drone impacted a farmers field in Moldova. Middle East: Yesterday the Pentagon disclosed the death of another soldier related to the current war with Iran. Major Bianca Wilkerson died after suffering a non-combat related medical incident while onboard an aircraft bound for Saudi Arabia. Analyst Comment: It is important to note the process for categorizing wartime casualties has changed somewhat since the start of the war. Operation EPIC FURY officially ended on May 5th. Ever since that date, all casualties have been logged under the general banner of "Overseas Operations", which includes US military casualty figures from all around the world, which are not cataloged under a different operation. As a result, it's challenging to determine exactly how casualties (both deaths and the wounded) are being counted. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the United States, the energy situation continues to deteriorate. The national average for gasoline remains around $4.50/gal and diesel has steadily risen to around $6.52/gal. Early this morning the Houthi's announced that they had hit more Saudi infrastructure, which has not yet been confirmed by satellite imagery. Regardless, the report alone was enough to cause crude futures to rise further, back up to around $108/bbl. The White House has not yet announced a decision regarding a potential export ban on diesel, though at the moment most experts (and even Trump himself) are hesitant to implement any export ban, because it might cause more problems than it solves. Either way, a decision will have to be made soon, as diesel prices continue to slowly rise right at peak harvest season and fuel prices for farmers are going to be reflected in the price of food and goods very soon. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 23, 2026 | 23 sept. 2026 | 00:05:28 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 23, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- United Kingdom: Immigration issues continue to develop, as channel boat crossings have escalated over the past few days. At least two inflatable boats made landfall in Kent overnight, prompting concerns as to why they were not intercepted and turned around before reaching land. The recent migration surge has resulted in widespread protests at port facilities throughout the country, which have also become more tense as authorities provide security for migration operations. Middle East: This morning a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in a major fire. The crew of the M/V CAPE DAO abandoned ship, after one crew member was killed and another wounded during the strike. Poland: Overnight one border incursion was reported near Braniewo, as a Russian helicopter from Kaliningrad flew south over the border. The helicopter flew about 300 meters into Polish airspace before returning to Kaliningrad less than a minute later. Poland scrambled fighters to intercept the aircraft, and ground forces were placed on alert in the border region. Analyst Comment: This was probably a classic probing incident. Russia has very obviously been carrying out reconnaissance to probe air defenses and test NATO's response, and this case was probably intended to spin up Polish responses, which they dutifully did. Russia probably doesn't need to do this, but these types of light border incursions have been common over the past few decades. This incident is not exactly earth-shattering, but it's also not unremarkable either, and mostly serves as yet another example of how the Cold War era escalations remain constant. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - As of this morning, American sanctions took effect to sanction nations which allow Iranian commercial aviation to operate within their country. These sanctions target nations that allow Iranian aircraft to land and refuel, with the United States threatening to cut off those nations from the US banking system. Analyst Comment: In response to the United States announcing a total ban on Iranian commercial air travel around the world, China has announced that they will continue to allow Iranian commercial aircraft to operate within their nation. This position was announced the same day that the White House welcomes President Xi for his first state visit in a decade. New York: The United Nations General Assembly continues as before. Various protest events took place outside the UN building throughout the day, including a few minor groups which blocked traffic for a short while. Analyst Comment: Otherwise, an alleged meeting also took place between American and Iranian diplomats on the sidelines of the Assembly, which does not appear to have resulted in any sort of positive movement toward a peace agreement. Both sides appear to be heavily entrenched in their positions, with no real room for actual negotiations at the moment. Illinois: The Joliet Refinery is returning to normal operations, after being offline for the past ten days due to flooding which caused a power outage. Fuel prices are expected to drop by a few cents throughout the Midwest as this refinery begins to come back online, with gas prices expected to return to the national average after being elevated due to this refinery being offline. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within northeastern Africa, trouble is brewing in Ethiopia. This beleaguered African nation has been host to civil unrest for many years, as tensions between government forces and rebels within the Tigray region have remained constant. Northern Ethiopia has become inflamed following years of dispute over the administration of the Tigray region. In 2022, a tenuous peace settled in throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea, after Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a sort of truce regarding the administration of the Tigray region. Last month, the peace deal started unravelling, and as of the past few days, the TPLF is mobilizing once again. This time, a coalition of various militia groups has formed, comprised of the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and a handful of others operating under a common banner. As of this morning, TPLF militants have captured the airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, which are comparatively important airports throughout the region. Based on statements by the group, the TPLF is once again trying to overthrow the Ethiopian government and re-take power (as the TPLF ruled the country from the early 90's up until 2018). While it looks like yet another typical African conflict between the standard warlord types, this conflict is escalating at the worst possible time, when there is already tension in the region as brought on by the Houthis just across the Red Sea. Perhaps most importantly, is the complex web of relationships and alliances. As is extremely common throughout the region, when there's trouble in one African nation, the culprit is usually next door. And in this case, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of funding the TPLF and trying to overthrow Ethiopia (accusations which Eritrea denies). How this develops over the next few weeks will be important to watch, simply due to the tensions that are already complicating the region. Nobody needs another war adjacent to a major international waterway, and if this gets worse there's no telling how more destabilization will affect the region. If the TPLF can keep their grievances centered on the Ethiopian government, and if the conflict stays within Ethiopia (as it has so far) this won't be that impactful to the world economy. But if this conflict becomes more regional in a few weeks, this could get ugly. Now that the TPLF has a coalition of other groups, they cover a wider swath of public sentiment, and have the potential to turn up the heat, and if they so choose...allow the pot to boil over. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 22, 2026 | 22 sept. 2026 | 00:06:05 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 22, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Saudi Arabia: Officials have announced that some repairs to the East-West Pipeline have been conducted, and some form of capacity has allegedly returned. Some exports are expected to return within a few days, however no onloading of crude has actually occurred yet. Analyst Comment: It will take about a week or so to determine exactly how much crude is able to flow through whatever repairs were made. Europe: Overnight Lithuania disclosed an airspace incident in Vilnius, claiming that Belarus released large balloons which drifted into Lithuanian airspace in the vicinity of Vilnius International Airport. Aircraft were grounded for some time due to the incursions, but flights were able to resume later on last night. Analyst Comment: This has happened before, and is a common annoyance that is squarely in the realm of an act that is enough to cause problems, but not big enough of a problem to launch a war over. Lithuania lost no time in calling this incident a "hybrid war attack", and as a result tensions remain high throughout the region. -HomeFront- New York: The UN General Assembly continues, with President Trump speaking before the UN this morning. During his remarks, the main items of note included threatening regime change in Cuba, and threatening further military action in Iran. In addition to the standard proceedings, President Trump also signed a trilateral agreement with Greenland and Denmark, securing terms to build two new American bases in the arctic, which will bolster the American presence in Greenland. Washington D.C. - Media concerns continue as the White House has banned several legacy media outlets. CNN, Politico, and MS NOW have been banned from the press pool, and not allowed on White House grounds. As a result, most other media outlets have refused to cover White House events, with journalists protesting the move by not showing up, leaving the White House Press Pool effectively empty. At around the same time as the media ban, the White House announced a new state-sponsored media outlet, Trump TV, which will feature all approved messaging from the White House. Analyst Comment: Though the squabble between the White House and the legacy media would normally not be worthy of note, at this point this saga is resulting in logistical issues. No tears shall be shed for legacy media, but right now things are happening around the world, and they are quite literally the only entities that are allowed into the White House to directly question officials. At a time when the US is involved in two major wars that are expanding by the day, a state-sponsored TV channel is not an ideal form of information exchange. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the nation, the fuel crisis continues to develop. Nationwide fuel prices continue to rise, with average gasoline prices remaining at $4.48/gal and diesel at $6.50/gal (and continuing to climb). Heating oil prices in New England have risen sharply over the past few weeks, with prices reaching almost $6.00/gal throughout the American northeast, a 70% price increase from last year. This afternoon, rhetoric surrounding a potential export ban on diesel continued to escalate, with President Trump stating that a decision either way is coming soon. Concerning the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), releases from the SPR have dwindled over the past month, as the salt caverns begin to reach emergency levels. Some reports indicate that at least some of the salt caverns that comprise the bulk of our strategic reserve may be starting to reach unsafe levels of drawdown. As a reminder, most of the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve is located at four locations that host a series of old salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. These caverns are a few hundred feet wide, and half a mile deep. These were formed by pumping water underground which mixed with the salt, and the mixture was pumped out again to sell as commercial grade salt back in the 1940's. After these caverns were empty, they found renewed use for storing crude oil. The mechanics of getting crude out of these caverns is simply to pump in water, and the crude floats to the top to be pumped out. At a certain point, the cavern becomes mostly water...and water and salt mixing tends to be bad for the structural integrity of salt caverns. As a result, many of these salt caverns are theoretically rated for only one-time use...as in, when all the oil is sucked out and only water remains, the cavern might collapse in on itself. This is an oversimplification, but this is the general gist of how it works, taking into account that most details of exactly how this system works are classified for national security reasons. As a result of these security concerns, speculation has to be heavy because the exact details of the "red line" are not publicly known and are complicated by the unique geography of the caverns themselves. The term "hitting brine" is one of the scariest phrases that can be uttered around this system, because it means that not only is the "tank" dry of crude, but that "tank" might collapse and not be able to be used again. The older caverns obviously suffer from this effect more, as the earlier caverns are oddly shaped and more prone to collapse, whereas the newer caverns don't present much of that risk. In short, when pushed to extremes (as we are right now) the entire SPR system is a grand mystery, and we're not really sure how far it can go. Every cavern is different, but most experts guess that the SPR can be safely emptied down to about 30-40% of it's total capacity. Some caverns can be emptied out more, but pushing beyond that might result in permanent damage to parts of the system. Theoretically, alarm bells should have been ringing when the SPR level dipped below 300 million barrels, which happened for the first time in history last month. As petroleum stockpiles have dropped to emergency levels, the US has less wiggle-room in terms of market fluctuations brought on my missiles and drones zipping into refineries around the world. Currently, the SPR sits at 284.6 million barrels in storage, all total. Congress has set a legal hard limit of 252.4 million barrels, meaning that the President would have to declare a full-blown emergency to dip below that. This is probably a contributing reason for why gas prices have continued to rise; SPR releases have slowed down because we're approaching the bottom of the tank. How much further that "tank" can be emptied is becoming mostly an exercise in guesswork, since we are now operating at the far edge of the initial specifications of our national strategic petroleum reserve. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 21, 2026 | 22 sept. 2026 | 00:05:29 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 21, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: Tensions are escalating between NATO and Russia, after Lithuania and Latvia have released alleged Russian plans to conduct more active "hybrid war" targeting within the Baltic states, as major military exercises continue around the region. In Lithuania, the STRONG GRIFFIN 2026 large scale military exercise came to a close after running for two weeks near the Belarussian border. Separately, a larger exercise (Perkūno Griausmas 2026) is currently underway, which seeks to test Lithuania's ability to shift from peacetime, to a wartime footing. As a result of both major defense initiatives, tensions have risen as both Belarus and Russia react to wartime preparations on their borders. Against the backdrop of these major exercises, other developments took place over the past few days which have complicated the situation further. On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland had intelligence indicating that Russia will seek to escalate "hybrid warfare" tactics throughout Europe over the next few weeks, to include within Poland. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys also confirmed that Lithuania had the same intelligence, and concurred with Poland's assessment. Similar concurrences were issued by the Czech Republic, France, Estonia, and Latvia. -HomeFront- New York: This morning the United Nations General Assembly began, which notably included appearances by Iranian officials, which were allowed to enter the United States to attend the proceedings at the UN. President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived this morning, and so far have been confined to the United Nations building as the United States has not issued visas for their free travel around New York. Washington D.C. - On Saturday the State Department issued a worldwide travel warning for Americans abroad, warning of increased potential for attacks as the wars in the Middle East and Europe are expected to escalate. The American Embassies in all Middle Eastern nations also issued similar warnings, reemphasizing the risks to Americans abroad. Analyst Comment: The United States had originally planned to conduct strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, but President Trump decided against the operation at the last minute. This was possibly due to the UN summit today, or more specifically, to prevent the White House from having to deal with another escalation of the war while key leaders and diplomats are located within the US for the summit. Northeast: This morning ground stops were issued for several airspace sectors throughout the region, after a series of mechanical issues resulted in communications systems going offline. The FAA stated that a contractor working on an Amtrak line accidentally cut into a series of underground communications cables at a critical juncture, which resulted in a loss of radar systems throughout the Newark sector. Newark Liberty, JFK, Teterboro, LaGuardia, and dozens of other airports nationwide experienced ground stops and delays while the cable was fixed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Going back to the height of the Cold War, the nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been some of the most vocal NATO members concerning Russian aggression in the region, purely due to where they are located. To put it bluntly, these three nations tend to freak out quite often anytime Russia sneezes in their direction, simply due to geography....if Russia is to launch a Cold-War-style ground invasion of Europe, she will probably do so via the Suwałki Gap separating Kaliningrad from mainland Russia. As a result of this extreme closeness to Russia, NATO tends to rather unceremoniously treat these three nations as a "speed bump" for Russian tanks, which is intended to buy NATO some time to activate their true defensive line...which is mostly in Poland. Nearly all serious land-based defenses are in Poland and Germany, and have been for a long time. In nearly all defensive drills Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are unfortunately expected to fall to Russia nearly immediately, in the event that war were to break out. These concepts are certainly outdated based on the technological advances that drones bring to modern warfare, but this has been the training assumption for several decades. All three of these nations suffer from unfortunate geography and very small military forces (Estonia's entire national army, for example, is smaller than the Arkansas National Guard). This is why any reports of "imminent war" from these three nations in particular, must be viewed with a giant heaping of salt. However, all of this history does not automatically mean that the claims of increased Russian "hybrid war" are not true; in the boy-who-cried-wolf story, the boy eventually does see the actual wolf one day. That might be what's happening in Europe, when viewed in the wider context of the tensions that have been building; Russia probably does seek to increase their own probing "incidents", after NATO has helped Ukraine carry out attacks on Russia. Helping Ukraine defend their terrain is one thing, but allowing Ukraine to carry out offensive attacks deep into Russia is being perceived by Russia as being a direct attack by NATO. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but that's the reality of the situation. Now that NATO has been supporting Ukraine for so long, NATO has been slowly creeping toward a more direct confrontation with Russia...and the Balkan states are now concerned that this might be starting to happen. How this will develop over the next few days will be telling. Right now there are no major Russian troop movements within the border regions, and there is no threat whatsoever of a ground offensive through Lithuania. Mysterious drone sightings continue to plague European airports, and probably will remain constant for some time. Drone flights through Lithuanian airspace to Kaliningrad are probably going to increase over the next few weeks as well, which will impact commercial aviation mostly in the form of aircraft being grounded during the incursions and drone sightings. Otherwise, sabotage attacks in Europe will probably escalate over the next few weeks, as tensions remain high throughout the continent. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - Sep. 19 - Just Walk Away | 20 sept. 2026 | 00:30:30 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:04 - Saudi Arabia 05:16 - Hormuz 11:46 - Europe 14:30 - France 18:41 - HomeFront 24:27 - 5th Generation Warfare 26:24 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - September 18, 2026 | 18 sept. 2026 | 00:02:57 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 18, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: Throughout the continent, various world leaders are attempting to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis, which is rapidly increasing in severity due to Saudi oil shipments being largely cut off. Italy has reduced taxes on vehicle ownership, and earlier this week Spain introduced further reductions in their tax on diesel. France has indicated the desire to hold a G7 summit dedicated to addressing the energy crisis over the coming weeks, though no specific date has been announced. Strait of Hormuz: Multiple explosions were reported overnight, as Iran struck ships attempting to transit via the Omani route. The UKMTO confirmed that at least three separate ships were targeted just north of the Musandam Peninsula, at least two of which were successfully struck last night. This afternoon, reports of 4x Iranian cruise missile launches were reported, targeting merchant vessels in the Strait. The status of these strikes is not known as of this report. Analyst Comment: The exact timing of these reports is not indicative of whether or not all of these vessels were struck on the same night; at least one of these strikes could have taken place the day prior. Regardless, the United States probably tried to get another convoy out last night via the southern Omani route, continuing efforts to export crude despite ships getting struck on every single transit. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation, commercial airlines are continuing to draw down flights, with Southwest, United and American Airlines announcing the cancellation of some of their cheaper routes due to the rising cost of jet fuel. Nationwide, diesel prices have continued to rise with the most significant price increases being noted in the midwest, as the Joliet Refinery remains offline. Analyst Comment: Most airlines have already scaled back their flight plans, so the recent airline drawdowns are just the latest round of further belt-tightening as a result of the worsening energy crisis. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Some sources claim that Saudi Arabia has quietly requested a ceasefire with the Houthis, so that the Saudis can recover from the recent round of targeting. No one has officially acknowledged this request, and whether or not the Houthis will agree is unknown. Otherwise, repairs continue on the East-West Pipeline, with satellite imagery indicating that Aramco is trying to lay new sections of pipeline bypassing the pumping stations that were destroyed. On the diplomatic front, the Saudis have pivoted to China for diplomatic solutions to the Houthi crisis, urging China to pressure Iran, to pressure the Houthis to stop their attacks. Similarly, Pakistan has increasingly indicated that they are interested in defending Saudi Arabia, with various diplomats and military leaders "pledging full support" for the Kingdom (though no specifics have been released regarding what this might entail). So far this afternoon, missile alerts were issued for Yanbu and Jeddah, however no impacts have been reported yet. In southern and eastern Yemen, the Houthi advance continues to expand, as they consolidate the ground taken over the past few days and dig in for the long haul. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 17, 2026 | 17 sept. 2026 | 00:04:57 | |
//The Wire//2000Z September 17, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- India: Multiple world leaders have reportedly fallen ill after attending the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Chinese President Xi Jinping skipped the gala dinner and returned to China early, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa also had to depart India early due to an unspecified illness. His Deputy President, Paul Mashatile, also fell ill at the same time, as has been confirmed by the South African government. Analyst Comment: Right now, it's not clear as to if the illnesses are the result of malign action, or just the natural reaction to being in India. Multiple leaders from separate countries falling ill at around the same time is a big clue, but Chinese sources are speculating that President Xi might have had a stroke. At the moment, there is nothing confirming this as Xi's personal life tends to be extremely private, and there has been no official confirmation regarding why he departed the BRICS summit early. Saudi Arabia: Repair work up and down the East-West Pipeline continues, along with repairs at Yanbu. Saudi forces have also requested air defenses from various European nations, as the United States has declined to become involved in defending their refineries. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Concerns continue to mount regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell. Yesterday, he was transported to the Capitol to vote on an agricultural spending bill, and footage of him continues to indicate that he is very visibly not well or coherent. Sen. McConnell has generally been conscious, but unresponsive to verbal comments made by journalists attempting to ask him questions. USA: Around the nation, reports of gasoline and diesel shortages are beginning to manifest, as several gas stations have announced that they are out of gas. Gas stations in North Texas, Florida, and California have all reported being out of gas as of last night. Analyst Comment: Right now it's hard to pinpoint exactly what is causing these specific shortages. To be sure, a handful of gas stations running out of gas is not indicative of a dire and imminent nationwide shortage; based on the EIA's Weekly Status Report, last week gasoline stocks in the US were only down 4.6% from what they were last year. However the empty pumps don't lie, and right now the most likely explanation for localized gasoline shortages is a combination of logistical issues delaying shipments to individual gas stations...and panic buying which will drain a gas station much faster than normal. Due to oil execs saying gas prices are going to increase over the next few days, people are probably trying to get ahead of the curve. Since most gas stations only have a day's worth of gas (and rely on nearly daily deliveries to refill their underground tanks), it doesn't take much of an increase in demand to generate a localized shortage. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Saudi oil contracts continued to be canceled as the scale of Houthi attacks continues to expand. All oil onloading at Yanbu has been halted for at least six days, and the only other source for Saudi exports is now through smaller ports, or through Ras Tanura via the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the devastation, some Saudi officials claim that the East-West Pipeline will return to at least 50% of it's capacity within a few days, though this appears to be wishful thinking at best. At the moment, formalized force majeure declarations have not taken place, but Aramco has "deferred" deliveries of crude for the rest of the month of September, and various contracts continue to be canceled. As it stands, Saudi Arabia is seriously in trouble and it's extremely unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be exporting any sizable amount of oil for a while. European oil traders seem rather adamant that Saudi Arabia has already canceled most of their contracts with various customers for oil deliveries, however Saudi officials assure the world that everything is fine and they will be back to full capacity soon. Saudi sources have claimed that the SUMED pipeline (with it's capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day) can be used as a partial-backup to the East-West Pipeline being down. However there is one problem with this plan...geography. The SUMED pipeline is not in Saudi Arabia, it's in Egypt. And the only way that the Saudis can use this pipeline, is to load oil at Yanbu, sail it on ships across the Red Sea, and deposit the crude in Egypt to be sent down the pipeline. The single point of failure for this "backup" pipeline is the same point of failure for the East-West Pipeline...Yanbu. Which is currently offline due to Houthi strikes. Whatever the truth is regarding exactly how much oil is able to exit the Middle East, it will be discovered rather quickly as crude cannot be conjured up out of thin air, and at some point the sheer lack of volume will have to be acknowledged. Within the homeland, the United States has begun more serious mitigation efforts due to the Saudis being offline for presumably a long time. The Department of Transportation has issued a 90-day waiver for truckers carrying fuel, easing Hours-of-Service (HOS) regulations to allow truckers to drive more hours in a 24 hour period. The White House is also still considering an export ban on diesel, in order to ease rising costs in the United States. If this were to be enacted, domestic prices would probably dip, but the shock to the system could result in unintended consequences in the long term. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 16, 2026 | 16 sept. 2026 | 00:05:43 | |
//The Wire//2100Z September 16, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: Fuel prices have begun to spike throughout the region, after Saudi Arabia announced that they will be halting all shipments of oil to the European continent. In Germany, the average diesel price is almost $11.00 per gallon nationwide, having increased steadily over the past few days. Other than diesel and gasoline, natural gas levels are also at the lowest level in years, with natural gas continuing to dwindle after Qatar shut down production after being targeted during the height of the war. Red Sea/HOA: Conflict between the Saudis and Houthis has continued to escalate. Overnight, the Houthis shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter aircraft over Marib. The status of the aircrew is not known. Analyst Comment: Several instances of fake or confusing videos regarding the crash have circulated social media regarding this shootdown. Due to several Persian websites using the Hijri Islamic calendar system for timestamping their articles, Google's auto-translate feature is mistranslating that date, and indicating that the video is from 2021. As a result, Saudis are claiming that the videos of the shootdown are either fake or from years ago. However, this is an error; the video is a new product released by official Houthi accounts and does appear to depict the shootdown overnight. To the north, Houthi forces also hit Yanbu with substantial drone strikes overnight, with dozens of impacts being reported at the oil terminals. Satellite based fire detection sensors indicate that the port of Yanbu remained on fire throughout the night. Proper battle damage assessment will take a few more days to materialize, but as of this morning the Houthis have continued to press the attack, and have struck Saudi facilities regularly over the past few days. Analyst Comment: Yesterday, rumors began to circulate that the Houthis have begun to lay mines in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, as a way of restricting travel through the waterway. As it stands, this is probably not true for many reasons. For one, the Houthis have historically not show interest in laying sea mines. Secondly, the Houthis have very carefully NOT instituted a blanket ban on travel through the Strait...they are only blockading Saudi ships. Everybody else is free to pass without being targeted or even contacted by radio. The Houthis are certainly still a threat to commercial shipping, and could possibly expand their blockade to include nations other than just Saudi Arabia, but there is very little chance that the Houthis have mined anything at present. Middle East: This morning Fox News leaked details of an Iranian strike on a merchant vessel in the strait of Hormuz, which was struck last week while attempting to exit the Gulf. At the time, this vessel was not any different than the dozens of other strikes that have taken place, however Fox News reports (via unnamed leakers) that U.S. personnel were onboard this vessel at the time of the Iranian strike. The report has not explicitly stated whether or not these individuals were military service members, or were U.S. citizens/contractors crewing the vessel. However, several people were wounded as a result of the Iranian targeting, and are currently being treated at an undisclosed location in the region. -HomeFront- Washington D.C - The Capitol Police Union has voiced outrage concerning the use of Flock cameras by the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). The Union alleges that Internal Affairs officers were using the intelligence collection sensor network to monitor their own officers without their knowledge. The Union also alleges that there are no guardrails for the use of this technology, nor is there any transparency on how these sensors are being used by the MPD. Analyst Comment: As has been noted by nearly everyone who is not actively getting paid to promote these technologies, one aspect of tracking every human being in the country is that high ranking individuals (who might be prone to being blackmailed) are also caught in the sensor network's dragnet. As demonstrated by the DC Police Union (perhaps not in the way that they intended), nobody cares when the taxpayers are surveilled relentlessly...but the elites and most law enforcement agencies do care when they themselves are being monitored. The National Capitol Region (NCR) is a very sensitive area, and all elected officials might be a little upset to find out that every vehicle that arrives at their homes on Capitol Hill in the middle of the night...is logged by a private company that now has leverage over them, which would serve as rather powerful blackmail potential. California: Yesterday evening, a helicopter crash was reported in Los Angeles. An NBC news helicopter crashed while covering a motor vehicle accident in the neighborhood of Chatsworth. The incident was captured live on air as the helicopter crashed, and both crew members were killed during the impact. One bystander on the ground was also killed after being hit by the debris from the crashing helicopter. No word yet on what caused the crash, but early indications suggest the helicopter may have suffered from engine failure or a catastrophic loss of power, which resulted in a loss of lift. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, the energy crisis is worsening by the hour, with some industry professionals stating that the exponential curve of escalating problems has arrived. Yesterday Tom Kloza, the Chief Energy Advisor for Gulf Oil, stated that sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices are expected over the next few days. Other oil executives have corroborated these sentiments as well, with several alarming statements being made over the past 24 hours. Mike Wirth, the CEO of Chevron, stated that the fuel crisis has officially arrived, and will be compounded by most mitigating efforts used to keep prices low, being expended due to the war lasting so long. China has also reversed course over the past couple of weeks and is now buying up as much crude as possible, from any source they can get it from. Most of China's "teapot" refineries (i.e. the cluster of smaller independently-owned refineries in Shandong Province) are now increasing purchases of oil, in a market that is already quite strained. This is a not-so-subtle indicator that China thinks that right now is the cheapest oil will be for a while. Yesterday, oil futures in Shanghai traded at $129 per barrel...a full $8.00 higher than the absolute peak prices observed during the height of the war months ago. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 15, 2026 | 15 sept. 2026 | 00:05:12 | |
//The Wire//2000Z September 15, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Russia: Yesterday evening the conflict escalated, as Ukraine continued to target Russian petroleum infrastructure. The Syzran Refinery was struck by Ukrainian drones, which heavily damaged the facility. Analyst Comment: This series of attacks was notable as they occurred immediately after President Trump announced that both sides had agreed to not target each other's energy infrastructure. About six hours after this ceasefire was announced, it was broken by Ukraine's attack on this refinery. As of this report, Russia had not retaliated yet. Lithuania: NATO fighter aircraft were scrambled to intercept an unidentified drone within Lithuanian airspace. The drone, which Lithuanian officials claim was Russian, originated from Belarussian airspace, and was shot down near the region of Kaunas. Netherlands: Early this morning a series of sabotage incidents were noted throughout the nation's rail network. Malign actors located all around the country placed metal pipes across the tracks at more than 20x locations. These pipes contacted both rails, tripping the sensors which register train movement on a particular section of track. This prompted automated systems and network operators to shut down much of the rail lines around the country, while authorities inspected the tracks. Analyst Comment: As discovered by ecoterrorists within the United States years ago, this is an effective way to shut down a rail line, because it tricks the automated sensors along the line into thinking that a train is on the track. When replicated at dozens of locations along a national rail network, the entire country can be effectively shut down without any explosives or kinetic attacks being used. No word yet on who caused this specific attack, but it does fit the historical trend of various ecoterrorist groups, which have used similar tactics over the years. Libya: This morning, Libyan officials announced the shut down of most of their oil fields, after the security guards at their main oil fields have begun protests related to pay issues. The Petroleum Facilities Guard, a quasi-militia force that has provided security for the oil fields since the collapse of the Gaddafi government years ago, has essentially taken the oil fields hostage, in order to demand higher pay for their security forces. Analyst Comment: For the context of how much this matters, Libya has been exporting a little more than a million barrels of oil per day, roughly 85% of which gets sold directly to Europe. By comparison, Venezuela exports about the same amount. As such, security guards taking over random oil fields in northern Africa has effectively canceled out any perceived benefit that the capture of Venezuelan oil has made to the global oil markets. Middle East: Overnight targeting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia resulted in more Saudi oil facilities being struck. Combined with the attacks over the weekend, a total of three major pumping stations along the East-West Pipeline have been completely destroyed, and several other larger refineries have been hit hard by Houthi missiles and drones. The Abha Bulk Plant was struck and remains on fire as of this afternoon, and facilities continue to be taken offline due to the constant exchange of fire between the Saudis and Houthis. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning Senator Mitch McConnell made his first public appearance since his illness struck months ago, with Capitol Police escorting him from his residence to the Capitol. The media was present as Sen. McConnell was brought out of his residence, and the footage indicates that he was visibly not well or coherent as he was put inside the vehicle transporting him to the Capitol. Illinois: Yesterday evening the Joliet Refinery was shut down due to an undisclosed power outage caused the majority of hte facility to shut down. Emergency flaring was observed by locals as the entire refinery was shut down. As of this morning, the refinery is still offline, and is expected to be down until later this week. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The shutdown of multiple major refineries around the world over the past 72 hours is exceptionally concerning, and will have serious impact the longer these refineries and pumping stations remain offline. As nearly all refineries in the U.S. have been redlining at their absolute maximum production level for months now, it is absolutely certain that mechanical issues will emerge; when we run American refineries this hard for this long....things break. However, the other side of COIN is the passive understanding that right now, American refineries are ripe for malign action. This has been true throughout the war, but right now, any malign actor so interested can cause a lot of problems which are compounded by the effects of the war dragging on for so long. When refineries are being run at 100%, when the supply of crude is already spread thin, and when the Strategic Reserve is dwindling...there is less room for error, and the smallest effort from a malign actor can snowball and have more catastrophic effect than would be achieved during peacetime. This morning, Saudi Arabia announced that they will not be able to meet their September contracts for oil, due to the strikes on the East-West pipeline, and continued Houthi targeting. Oil onloading at Yanbu has completely shut down, and right now, the main way for the Saudis to export oil, would be to sneak tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which they have been trying to do. However, with Iranian missiles continuing to fly, the global energy crisis is becoming more desperate by the hour. Libya is also offline for completely unrelated reasons, and now a major American refinery is offline too. All of these incidents would be very important even in isolation, but since they are taking place all at the same time, the negative affect to the global energy market becomes that much more significant. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 14, 2026 | 14 sept. 2026 | 00:02:52 | |
//The Wire//1800Z September 14, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Saudi Arabia: Over the weekend the scale of the damage to Saudi petroleum facilities has become more clear, with high resolution satellite imagery confirming catastrophic damage at several refineries and pumping stations. To the south, the refineries close to Yemen suffered the most damage. Farther north, the East-West pipeline is also much more heavily damaged than disclosed at first, and early estimates indicate a recovery time of several weeks at minimum. Overnight, Saudi forces retaliated by conducting strikes in Sanaa. Locals report Houthi positions being struck in the Bir Zehr neighborhood near the airport, along with other sites around the capital city. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - While taking questions onboard Air Force One, President Trump was asked about Flock cameras and similar technologies. During his response, he stated that he "likes" the surveillance sensors. Analyst Comment: This is the first concrete statement indicating the current administration's stance on a major issue that has swept the nation, in the lead up to the midterms. USA: Around the nation, the impacts of the energy crisis are beginning to manifest with random shortages. Costco announced that they would be rationing purchases of motor oil, limiting purchases of their 10-quart full synthetic motor oil to two units per person, per week. Analyst Comment: Even since the early days of the war, random shortages of petroleum products have quietly been increasing in severity. Many manufacturers have changed blends (of synthetic products), and many commercial vendors have had a hard time keeping certain weights of motor oil in stock. Now that a major retailer at the consumer level is impacted, other vendors will probably follow suit. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within Saudi Arabia, indications and warnings are growing suggesting a major Saudi campaign against the Houthis is developing. Troop movement and various armored columns have been observed along the Saudi border regions with Yemen since the United States declined to become involved in the Saudi/Houthi conflict. It's too soon to tell if the Saudis are going to launch a proper ground invasion; right now they are mostly just staging and conducting airstrikes in Sanaa. However, the United States is not fully hands-off with this conflict either; last night planewatchers observed a sharp increase in cargo flights to Camp Lemonnier...which is the central hub for most American activities in the region. This base, is also extremely close to Yemen, and well within range of even short range munitions. As the crow flies, less than a hundred miles of airspace separate this base from the Houthi missile launch sites along Yemen's Red Sea coastline. As a result, it is very likely that the United States is planning for escalations in the region, which could result in very substantial American positions being targeted. Since the Saudis have begun bombing Sanaa once again, Houthi targeting will continue to hit Saudi petroleum industry, but if the US is to become roped into this more directly, it will probably involve the American presence in Djbouti. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - Sep. 12 - Tanker Wars | 13 sept. 2026 | 00:21:37 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:07 - Homeland Cyberattacks 03:08 - The Houthis 05:19 - The Gulf 08:35 - Tanker War 13:12 - Energy Crisis Deepens 17:20 - Closing Thoughts Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - September 11, 2026 | 11 sept. 2026 | 00:03:43 | |
//The Wire//1500Z September 11, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Saudi Arabia: Overnight Houthi forces conducted major missile and drone strikes on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. Local sources claim that the pipeline was struck in 8x different places, which resulted in major damage to the pumping and control stations along the entire pipeline network. A smoke plume roughly 80km long was observed on satellite imagery, along with a substantial column of smoke being observed from the ground. Analyst Comment: While the Saudis have not explicitly confirmed this, it is almost certain that this pipeline network is offline, and will be so for some time. These two pipelines were the main avenue of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, so if the Houthis took them offline, this will have an immediate and devastating impact to the global energy crisis. Yemen: Throughout the evening, the Houthis continued their advance, seizing more islands in the southern Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb Strait. Perim Island (also known as Mayyun Island) fell to Houthi control overnight, further cementing Houthi control of the entire coastline along the Red Sea. Analyst Comment: The seizure of these islands means that the Houthis don't have to rely on drones anymore...they can hit passing ships with coastal artillery and smaller weapons systems. Europe: Ukrainian attacks on Russia oil infrastructure continue, with major strikes being reported at the Saratov Refinery overnight. A nearby Ozon warehouse was also struck during the attack, and remained on fire throughout the morning. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Mainstream media has reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman (MBS) called President Trump twice yesterday in order to urge the United States to intervene and coordinate strikes on Houthi positions. According to witnesses (which cannot be corroborated), President Trump declined to get involved with the Houthis again, however CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper flew to Riyadh to conduct emergency coordination efforts. New York: This morning remembrance events began in Manhattan, as the world reflects on the 25th Anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. Vice President Vance is expected to speak at the National September 11 Memorial, and various other officials are expected to make appearances at the various memorial sites throughout the day. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Due to the events in the Middle East over the past 48 hours, energy prices are likely to climb higher and the immediate concerns are purely a logistical numbers game. Before the war, 20 million barrels of crude transited through the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, we found out that on average, the United States has only been able to recover half of that capability during the "ceasefire" (under the best possible conditions). If the Houthis managed to take out the Saudi East-West Pipeline for a long time, that would mean the loss of the main pipeline bypassing the Strait, and therefore the loss of 5 million barrels per day from the global market. Since traffic through the Strait itself has been minimal over the past few days due to Iranian and American targeting, this is going to snowball into a much more serious problem very soon. On the retail side of the equation, prices for gasoline and diesel spiked yesterday afternoon throughout the United States. As diesel has been experiencing a global shortage (and thus was more strained already), several new records were set overnight. According to GasBuddy, a total of 28x states reported all-time-high diesel prices topping $6.00 per gallon. This brought the national average for diesel over $6.00 for the first time in history. At the more extreme ends of the spectrum, several gas stations in California reported maxing out their displays for diesel. The price was stuck at $9.999 simply due to the digital display on the gas pump not having the space for an extra digit, which would have brought the price into double-digit territory. As the scale of the attacks on the Saudi pipeline become known over the next few days, the impact to the global energy crisis will become more clear, but as it stands, the events in the Middle East are continuing to develop by the hour, with new records being reached every day. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 10, 2026 | 10 sept. 2026 | 00:04:26 | |
//The Wire//2100Z September 10, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Following the large-scale missile strikes in Jordan, a more clear picture of the damage caused by Iran has emerged. MSM reporters with access to closed-sources stated that a total 8x F-15 fighter aircraft were damaged, most of which have been returned to service since the strikes. One additional A-10 ground attack aircraft sustained damage during the strikes, and was damaged beyond repair. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have posted a video of the destruction of an American Saildrone Explorer Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV), with the video evidence confirming that the vessel caught fire as a result of the attack. Yemen: The Houthis have continued their advance on Yemeni government positions, after the Saudi-backed government forces attempted to kick off a renewed ground offensive a few days ago. Houthi forces conducted an attack of their own, which has resulted in major gains being made by Houthi forces over the past 24 hours. The Houthis made advances of several hundred kilometers (in some cases), which concluded with the capture of the city of Mocha. The mass surrender and disbandment of several pro-Saudi factions has been reported as Houthis forces have made some of the most significant advances of the past few years. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - President Trump stated that if the Republicans win both the House and the Senate in midterms, he plans to issue a $5,000 payment to every American. Separately, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran is once again attempting to build nuclear weapons, which President Trump also alluded to by recent statements regarding Pickaxe Mountain, where digging and possibly fortification activity has allegedly been observed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Even though the war in Yemen has been largely classified as a tribal conflict that most people have not cared about for years, the developments in Yemen over the past week have been rather important when viewed in conjunction with the Gulf War. Time and time again, an extremely complicated series of interconnected geopolitical developments can be boiled down to rocks on the beach. In other words, geography and weather are nearly always the most important aspects of any military efforts that are undertaken. If both features can be read correctly, success can be obtained. If analyzed incorrectly (or if ignored altogether) geography can humble the strongest military in the world. Saudi Arabia (much like the United States) is learning this lesson the hard way right now. The town of Mocha was previously contested, but mostly held by Yemeni government forces, which were still clinging to the notion that they (not the Houthis) controlled Yemen, despite the Houthis controlling most major cities and the capital. Most importantly, it is a coastal port city, which allowed Saudi Arabia to land supplies to fight the Houthis. As of this morning, this city appears to be in Houthi control. Whether or not they can hold it after they advanced into the town, is anyone's guess. Controlling the port facilities themselves, while a very small port, is still a major loss of cargo offloading capability that the Saudis were counting on to wage their war against the Houthis. In hindsight, it was probably unwise for the Saudis to bomb dirt next to a runway in Sana'a two weeks ago, because it has snowballed into them losing their main foothold in Yemen on the Red Sea. Even worse, some reports emerged this morning indicating that Houthi forces have captured Zuqar Island, in the southern Red Sea. If this island can be held, this will be a major problem in very short order. This island offers superior command and control of the southern Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait. It's also a mountain that is hard to attack, but easy to defend. The Houthis did conduct their own version of an amphibious assault with small boats, landing on the island this morning, however this assault was probably not necessary because most of the pro-Saudi, pro-Yemeni Government forces stationed on these islands immediately defected and/or surrendered, because these islands were being supplied by the port of Mocha...when Mocha fell, the islands were cut off within hours. As far as what military advantage this island offers, it's mostly beneficial for projecting power out into the Red Sea. There is a helicopter base on the island, but minimal port facilities and structures. If the Houthis can hold this terrain for a few months, and dig in, this island could probably be a very effective base from which to launch drones and missiles, which could threaten maritime shipping quite significantly over the next few months. At this rate, the Persian Gulf being mostly shut off to the United States Navy is not the only complicating factor...this morning's advances are setting the stage for the Red Sea to be cut off as well, as the Houthis now have the terrain and logistical Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 9, 2026 | 09 sept. 2026 | 00:03:54 | |
//The Wire//1300Z September 9, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Major escalations were reported around the region, as the fighting on both sides has intensified back to levels not seen since the height of the war in April. From the United States, attacks on merchant shipping have continued. Overnight, a total of 5x civilian tanker vessels were targeted, some of which were sunk. As of this morning, the full list of ships struck by the United States since yesterday evening is as follows: M/T RIESCO (IMO: 9251822) - Sunk, Gulf of Oman From the Iranian side, attacks also escalated sharply overnight, targeting merchant shipping and American bases around the region. These attacks occurred in multiple waves, with the initial waves of missiles being intended to soak up missile interceptors before the most significant second and third waves. As a result of this coordination, substantial missile strikes were reported at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase, many of which were confirmed to have hit the base. Video evidence from locals confirms that a total of 4x ballistic missile warheads impacted the base. Prince Hassan Airbase was also targeted in a similar manner. Aside from the targeting of American bases, Iran has claimed to have attacked over 20x commercial vessels in the region overnight. The IRGC-N also claims to have targeted two American Destroyers, the USS JOHN PAUL JONES (DDG-53) and the USS DELBERT D. BLACK (DDG-119). CENTCOM denies that either vessel was hit, but did confirm that evasive action was required, and the United States struck more civilian ships in retaliation. Within the Gulf, Iranian forces also posted photo and video evidence confirming that Iran has captured a highly classified Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). One American Dive-LD drone submarine was captured intact by Iran, which was likely being used by the United States to conduct highly precise scans of the seafloor throughout the region, probably in conjunction with mine clearance operations in the Gulf. This platform is one of the most capable submersibles used by the U.S. Navy, and was originally unveiled by Anduril last year. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: A full-blown return to the war is probably already underway throughout the Middle East, and all indicators support a widening and/or intensification of the fighting (at least for the time being, as the Tanker War continues). Last night's targeting efforts on all sides were the most significant seen since the height of the war a few months ago. During the attacks in Jordan, the Iranians appear to have used cluster munitions, though the type is not known (these could have been dozens of bomblets, or these could have been inert devices intended to soak up interceptor missiles so that the actual munition penetrates defenses). The last time this type of munition was used was during the targeting of Israeli military bases during the opening days of the war. Based on the footage observed overnight, dozens of PAC-2 missiles were spent attempting to intercept Iranian missiles, with just one night of fighting probably expending more munitions than have been used over the past 2-3 months. Locals report that by the time the final waves of Iranian missiles arrived in Jordan, zero interceptors were even launched. As a reminder, based on the recent reports of munitions stockpiles, the US has largely expended most of the newer PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system, and have been down to mostly the older PAC-2 missiles for several months. The PAC-2 missile is physically larger than the PAC-3, so each PAC-2 battery can hold fewer missiles than one equipped with PAC-3 canisters. The standard Launching Station holds four missile canisters, which can hold either 4x PAC-2 missiles...or 16x PAC-3 CRI missiles. This means that a Patriot system that has been depleted of the PAC-3 missiles, has to mostly rely on a mix of PAC-2 missiles, which reduces the overall total number of interceptors that could be launched during an engagement. This major logistical detail appears to have worked in Iran's favor during last night's attacks, as locals report that over one hundred PAC-2/3 missiles were fired to intercept the dozens of Iranian missiles that targeted American bases throughout Jordan. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire -September 8, 2026 | 08 sept. 2026 | 00:02:26 | |
//The Wire//1300Z September 8, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Saudi Arabia: Overnight, major escalations occurred between the Saudis and the Houthis, after a few days of fighting snowballed into a wider conflict. After several days of staging forces near Yemeni government sites, the Houthis caught wind of the Saudis preparing for a larger campaign, prompting the Houthis to launch major strikes overnight. The Jazan Refinery was struck again, with abnormal thermal hotspots being observed (which are not normal gas flaring) at much of the facility. To the south, the entire Jazan Bulk Plant remains on fire, and there is a large thermal hotspot near the airport. To the north, the Abha Bulk Plant was hit and remains on fire, and the Asir Power Plant was struck as well. Germany: More sabotage attacks were reported over the weekend, with more rocket launch sites being located near the Weisweiler Power Plant, the same power plant where the initial rocket tubes were found last week. Separately, German authorities announced the arrest of one suspect who they claim is the only individual suspected of being linked to the series of sabotage attacks on power infrastructure. The suspect has not been identified, and authorities are still investigating whether or not the suspect acted alone. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia were no-joke, and these are the largest attacks conducted by the Houthis in a long time (possible ever). As a result it is almost certain that the Saudis will have to shut down a significant portion of their oil production due to the damage from the strikes. This will compound the energy crisis, and possibly erase much of the mitigating efforts that have been undertaken to use the Saudi pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. As a reminder, in July Saudi west coast exports dropped below 1 million bbl/day (a fraction of their rated output), which was caused by a combination of export bottlenecks at the ports, and the Houthi strikes causing several major facilities to shut down. The Jazan refinery itself has minimal effect on the export market (it mostly serves domestic Saudi markets), but this many strikes targeting multiple facilities...to include power plants...is a sharp escalation that is going to have wider impact than might be noticeable at first. Since the Yemeni Civil War appears to be ramping up again, this is another front to be concerned about, since the Houthis have confirmed that they can hit the oil terminals at Yanbu and if they so desire, bring Saudi exports nearly to zero. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 7, 2026 | 07 sept. 2026 | 00:05:06 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 7, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Over the weekend, the general situation remained as before. This morning, Iranian forces reportedly launched two cruise missiles toward a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, with unknown success. Otherwise, CENTCOM announced that the M/T KYLO has sunk at undisclosed coordinates in the Gulf of Oman. In Saudi Arabia, Houthi attacks from this morning targeted the Jazan Refinery once again, with locals observing large smoke plumes in the vicinity of the facility. Analyst Comment: Jazan had just come back online after making repairs due to the latest round of Houthi strikes. Less than a week after the refinery was due to come back online, the Houthis hit it again. Lebanon: Israeli attacks have intensified with a new series of attacks being reported over the weekend. Significant bombing runs were reported throughout Nabatiyeh, mostly focusing on striking residential structures in the town of Kfar Rumman. Mediterranean: Overnight Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian cargo ship off the coast of Crete. The M/V LADY MARIIA was struck by Ukrainian drones while reportedly carrying a cargo of Iranian weapons, which Iran was allegedly attempting to export to Russia. -HomeFront- Florida: Yesterday evening a plane crash was reported at Miami International Airport, after a cargo aircraft overran the runway. Prime Air Flight 7598 (an Amazon cargo plane) made a rough landing on Runway 30, touching down farther down the runway than usual. The aircraft also possibly had issues with their left landing gear, as indicated by video evidence of the landing. The aircraft failed to stop in the allotted distance, and either overran or missed the Engineered Materials Arresting System (EMAS). Once off the runway, the aircraft skidded across NW 67th Avenue, striking multiple vehicles that were on the road. A total of 5x fatalities were reported, and several others wounded. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Following the intensification of airstrikes on commercial shipping over the weekend, the United States has altered the Commander's Intent with regards to the American targeting of commercial shipping. Per Secretary of War Hegseth, the United States will target Iranian noncombatant civilian ships for every attempt by Iran to strike an American warship. In terms of targeting doctrine, conducting kinetic strikes on civilian ships can be interpreted in several ways. Kinetically targeting a ship so as to disable it's movement due to noncompliance with boarding procedures in one's own territorial waters is normally considered acceptable under current international maritime norms. However, verbally stating that random noncombatants will be sunk for no other purpose than for revenge, is generally not in keeping with the Department of Defense Law of War Manual, which states on page 200 that "Combatants may make military objectives the object of attack, but may not direct attacks against civilians, civilian objects, or other protected persons and objects." The deliberate targeting of random civilian ships purely for reasons of revenge/reprisal and NOT for reasons of self-defense or due to Hostile Intent or Hostile Action, is a new milestone, and the public statements by Admiral Brad Cooper and SECWAR Hegseth don't leave much room for interpretation. Regardless of how anyone spins it, in every wartime publication that has been written thus far, this conflict has now transitioned into a state of Unrestricted Warfare, and the follow-on effects of this will probably result in very bad things happening in the very near future, as it becomes common to blur the lines between civilians and military targets. From Ukraine and Russia striking civilian ships in the Black Sea, to Iran and the United States striking civilian ships in the Middle East...in many cases civilians are no longer protected by the general norms of what it means to be a noncombatant. Of course, Iran has been striking civilian merchants this entire war, so this new policy from the Pentagon does not excuse their behavior. But, the overall impact of the United States engaging in an eye-for-an-eye targeting doctrine is going to be made worse, because Iran has already stated that they will be retaliating in kind. Reflecting back on what prompted this new targeting milestone, the theories have been circulating for a few days. Over the weekend however, both the Iranian government and CENTCOM have added some context for why the United States struck the three tankers on Friday. Cutting through the narratives on both sides, the most likely explanation is that the Iranians conducted a live-fire operational test of a new missile...and it got way too close for comfort for the U.S. Navy. CENTCOM confirmed that the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) had to take evasive action to avoid the missile, which is a startling admission that is not normally disclosed publicly, as it is a major indicator that the missile penetrated the Aegis missile defense screen, and possibly entered the aircraft carrier's Terminal Defense Zone...which means it got really close. The missile that was tested has not been named by official sources, but the most likely candidate is the Qasem Basir Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), which was unveiled in March of last year. As to whether or not the Iranians were engaging in "testing" as they claim, or if that "test" was also intended to actually target the Washington, that would be something only confirmable with the radar track of the projectile itself. Regardless of what the intent was, this effort (and the American retaliation) will keep escalating the war at a time when the energy crisis is reaching new heights. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - Sep. 5 - Hybrid Warfare | 06 sept. 2026 | 00:19:16 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 00:50 - Europe 07:28 - Middle East 13:37 - Homeland 18:00 - Closing Thoughts Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - September 4, 2026 | 04 sept. 2026 | 00:03:30 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 4, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: This afternoon Iran conducted more strikes around the region, allegedly targeting American bases in Jordan. The United States has disputed these specific launches, however locals have provided videos of the missiles in the air. Battle damage reports are expected by morning, when new satellite imagery products become available. Yemen: Clashes between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces escalated as both sides conducted strikes on each other overnight. Fighting has being reported in western regions of the country and several missile launches have been reported throughout the night, though most missiles appear to have targeted locations inside Yemen. Germany: Yesterday evening another possible sabotage attack on an electrical substation was reported in Dormagen-Gohr. Local authorities responded to reports of at least one rocket launcher being emplaced near a substation, complete with copper wire and a timer mechanism. Separately, German police in Cologne stated that they received a letter from Vulkangruppe claiming credit for at least one of the attacks this week. Analyst Comment: Vulkangruppe is an infamous ecoterrorist organization that is well known for conducting sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure around the country. Whether or not this group actually is the culprit, will be a part of the investigation. Homemade rocket launchers trailing copper wire set up on timers is a level of sophistication that would be a big leap from what Vulkangruppe has conducted in the past, so they might just be taking credit for attacks that were committed by somebody else. Nevertheless, if it is ecoterrorists trying to conduct attacks, these incidents are taking place at a time of maximum pressure within Germany. Russia/Ukraine: Attacks continue to escalate by both sides, with Ukraine intensifying attacks on the Russian port of Sochi. Ukrainian drone boats carried out strikes targeting Russian shipping in the port, with at least one boat being intercepted. In the city of Adler to the south, Ukrainian drones successfully struck a Russian SAM system near the local airport. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: On the energy crisis front, the situation continues to deteriorate further. This morning the national average for diesel climbed to the all-time high of $5.85 per gallon. During the month of August, the national average for gasoline reached a high point never before seen in history, with the national average remaining over $4.00 per gallon every single day of the month. Spikes in gas prices due to sporadic targeting and market speculation notwithstanding, the energy crisis has crept into more serious territory as the war in the Middle East doesn't just continue, but continues to escalate. Over the past few days, the White House has touted the recent deal with Venezuela to take control of a portion of their oil industry, and provide access to 17 different oil fields, which are assessed to contain roughly 65 million barrels of crude. The main concern, is that it will take many years to actually get that oil out of the ground. Right now, Venezuela is assessed to be providing an absolute maximum of 1.25 million barrels of crude per day, all total. Due to the earthquake and the recent political upheaval in the wake of the capture of Maduro, investments in Venezuela have been rather tepid, with most American oil companies not being enthusiastic about ramping up operations during a time of uncertainly. Just from purely a numbers game, if Venezuela were to increase their output by ten times they would be able to make up a little more than half of the oil that transited through the Strait of Hormuz each day, before the war. At this point, every single barrel that can be reliably provided each day is valued greatly, but it's going to be several more years before Venezuela is able to even put a dent in the daily American demand for oil. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 3, 2026 | 03 sept. 2026 | 00:02:27 | |
//The Wire//2000Z September 3, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Overnight, Iran conducted another round of drone and missile strikes, mostly targeting American bases in Kuwait. Satellite imagery of the American bases in Jordan also indicate that some Iranian missiles evaded defenses to strike their targets, but full battle damage assessments will take some time, as high resolution imagery is not yet available. This afternoon, reports of more Iranian missile launches have emerged, and the situation continues to develop by the hour. Germany: This morning the sabotage attacks continued throughout the country. Two Bulgarian nationals were arrested in Munich after throwing a Molotov incendiary device at the headquarters for Rohde and Schwarz, a major defense contractor of communications and radar equipment. Poland: Local authorities have announced that they are treating an industrial fire that tool place over the weekend as a potential act of state-sponsored terrorism. The WB Electronics factory in Skarzysko-Kamienna reported a fire at their facility a few days ago, which is assessed by Polish authorities to be an act of sabotage caried out by foreign intelligence services. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Yesterday evening a shooting was reported at an apartment building, which resulted in multiple fatalities. Local authorities initially responded to reports of shots fired on an upper floor of Loring Towers, a Section 8 residential housing facility. Upon arrival, police were immediately engaged with small arms by at least one shooter. A total of three fatalities were reported as a result of the engagement, including the shooter and two unidentified individuals. Three officers were also severely wounded during the engagement. The suspect has been identified as Carlton Johnson II, who had a long history of threatening residents in this building with firearms. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The shadow war throughout Europe has remained hot this week, and very few people seem to realize the severity of the situation. To be sure, there is a solid argument for thinking that at least some of the attacks in Europe might be false-flag attacks intended to draw the global west further into the war. However, just because an incident might be a false-flag attack, doesn't mean it isn't a genuine threat....At the end of the day, if you step on an IED while walking your dog in the German countryside, it doesn't matter who planted it there, the result to the victim is the same. Right now, the lines are blurred to the point that attributing cause or culprit is nearly impossible for most attacks, but the explosions continue nonetheless. Daily attacks/incidents in Germany (and now Poland) are probably going to continue for the time being, and regardless of who's actually behind the attacks. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 2, 2026 | 02 sept. 2026 | 00:04:14 | |
//The Wire//2100Z September 2, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Last night's attacks by Iran were somewhat successful, with strikes being reported at the airport in Erbil. An Iranian Shahed-type drone also took out the Persistent Threat Detection System (PTDS) balloon at this location, in addition to striking the fuel point. In Bahrain, several Shahed-type drones targeted the former headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama and Sheikh Isa Airbase to the south. Several locations were also targeted in Kuwait, with unknown success. As of this report, the United States has not yet responded to the round of Iranian targeting conducted overnight. Ukraine: Overnight a small arms skirmish was reported in Kiev, which reportedly involved two different Ukrainian governmental agencies engaging each other in the street. Allegedly, the Security Service of Ukraine (the SBU, which is like a uniformed and militarized version of the FBI) detained Stepan Kaplunov who was the deputy commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, a unit of ethnic Russians fighting on Ukraine's side during the war. Kaplunov was staying at a residential building in Kiev for Independence Day celebrations last week, when he was reportedly abducted for unknown reasons. After this kidnapping, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (the GUR, or the main military intelligence unit) launched an investigation into why the SBU took him, which resulted in a scuffle and subsequent shootout at the scene of the earlier abduction. One GUR officer is dead, and several others were wounded during the initial engagement. Analyst Comment: As one might expect, Ukrainian sources are downplaying this incident, and Russian sources are trying to amplify it, so determining the truth is challenging. However the incident did take place, and the small arms engagement in the street between these two agencies was captured on film. As it stands, video evidence from the time of the shooting indicates that tensions were high between the SBU and the GUR right before shots were fired. Both agencies were arguing with each other, with the SBU refusing to allow the GUR into the crime scene, and a standoff situation emerged. As the agencies continued arguing and fighting with each other, eventually the altercation became physical, and devolved into a shooting. After the shooting, the standoff situation continued throughout the night and the next morning. Eventually, the SBU ended up releasing Kaplunov, ending the incident. Several prominent Ukrainian leaders have called for an investigation into what happened, and for more details to be made public. Germany: Yesterday afternoon, another electrical substation was targeted by malign actors conducting sabotage operations. Locals observed an explosion and arcing at the Bergheim Power Station in western Germany, shortly before the power went out. Local authorities state that 6x rocket launch sites were located in a field near the second substation that was attacked, continuing the same attack vector as witnessed at a different power station yesterday. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Germany, the attacks on electrical substations over the past two days have been substantial. In short, these attacks were probably not carried out by amateurs. Locals report that upwards of twenty separate rockets were launched over the top of the substation near Berlin. These rockets were not fireworks, but specifically constructed devices built for the task. These rockets were also trailing thin copper wire, which was intended to cause electrical shorts. This is not entirely a new tactic, after all the United States pioneered this tactic of taking out enemy substations with "blackout bombs" that operate very similarly. Cruise missiles were used to deploy such devices over Baghdad during the initial invasion of Iraq in 2003, with thin graphite wires being trailed over the top of exposed substation transformers and electrical connectors. More recently, an unidentified malign actor also attempted to target an electrical substation in Pennsylvania back in 2020, which resulted in widespread media coverage at the time. Malign actors using almost thirty rockets to achieve the same effect in Germany is a substantial escalation that is not likely to have been undertaken by non-state actors. Germany is infamous for having some of the more serious ecoterrorists around the world, who have conducted IED attacks, train derailings, and other similar attacks on electrical infrastructure. However, since no ecoterrorist organization has claimed credit yet, right now the leading theory is that these sabotage operations could be sleeper cells conducting attacks around the German countryside. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - September 1, 2026 | 02 sept. 2026 | 00:08:18 | |
//The Wire//2300Z September 1, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Overnight, Iranian targeting of merchant shipping continued, with a total of 3-4x vessels being struck since the targeting in the Strait of Hormuz re-ignited over the weekend. At least two of these targeting efforts involved VLCC tankers being struck as they attempted to exit the gulf. The M/T SIDR and the M/T SENEGAL PROSPERITY were hit by unidentified munitions (one of these ships was hit three times), with the effect of the targeting being a halt of their transit through the Strait. This afternoon, the United States conducted larger-scale attacks on Iran, continuing the strikes that kicked off the fighting again over the weekend. The United States struck targets on Qeshm Island, Sirik Island, the port of Chabarhar, and several other targets along the Iranian coastline. After these strikes took place, Iran launched more missiles at American bases throughout the region (mostly in Jordan and Kuwait). As of this report over 20x Iranian ballistic missiles have been launched, with the launches continuing into the evening. Europe: Over the past few days, the war in Ukraine has become increasingly more serious, as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each others' infrastructure have intensified. Over the past two days, large-scale waves of drone and missile attacks have been reported, with Russia and Ukraine focusing on targeting Kiev and St. Petersburg respectively. Several dozen smaller cities on both sides have also reported missile and drone impacts within the past 48 hours. Germany: This morning several explosive devices were discovered near a electrical substation at the Jänschwalde Power Plant southeast of Berlin. Several IEDs were discovered at this location by workers, though the exact number and composition of the devices has not yet been disclosed. Analyst Comment: Details of what actually happened at this substation are very hard to come by. Initial reports suggested that workers found IEDs at the site, but throughout the afternoon other reports emerged indicating that these were actually warheads from improvised mortars/rockets, which landed at the substation and failed to explode and/or had a different purpose altogether. Some reports from local sources in the community claim that rockets were found that contained "conductive material" which were fired over the top of electrical transmission lines at this location. This undescribed conductive material caused an electrical short on two transmission lines, which took out the power for a few hours. If these details are accurate, this would be a deliberate infrastructure attack, though the culprits could be anyone from climate groups, to foreign nationstates. More details are expected as the situation develops. Kyrgyzstan: As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for a series of press conferences and brief talks. During the media events, President Putin directly stated that Russia is providing resources to Iran to help circumvent the effects of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Analyst Comment: While this is certainly no big secret, Putin saying this openly is a message to the United States, which is probably a tit-for-tat response to the global west arming Ukraine for years. Though it is largely forgotten, Iran actually does share a border with Russia, but it's not by land...it's via the Caspian Sea. Russian boats can easily transfer large amounts of cargo to Iranian ports on the northern coast of Iran, in addition to the large-scale railway projects in the northern districts, which serve as vital logistical lines to Russia and China. -HomeFront- Mississippi: Yesterday afternoon, a major fire was reported at an industrial facility in Laurel, which began after a truck caught fire near a paint locker at the Howard Industries facility which produces electrical transformers. The initial fire sparked a much larger blaze that consumed much of the main factory complex as well as the storage yard for large transformers. Analyst Comment: The U.S. imports about 80% of the electrical transformers needed to keep the electrical grid functioning, and as recently as May of this year, the industry was facing a dire shortage of transformers (a shortage which has been problematic for years). Howard Industries is a major domestic US producer of transformers, producing over 10 million transformers that are still in service around the nation. This company has a total of 14 different factories around the state, but even just one facility being offline (and the stored transformers being lost in the fire) will probably negatively impact the nationwide shortage of these critically-needed components. Washington D.C. - Last night Dan Driscoll, the Secretary of the Army, reportedly tendered his resignation to President Trump. Dave Fitzgerald, the Deputy Undersecretary of the Army is also expected to resign sometime this week. Analyst Comment: These resignations are extremely important, and very significant during a time of war. Normally, the resignation of the Secretary of the Army during an active conflict is something that is a major indicator of things not going well in upper management circles, however the terms of Driscoll's resignation also add more fuel to the fire. Allegedly, Driscoll resigned due to clashes with SECWAR Hegseth regarding the operational readiness of the Army. Officially, Driscoll's resignation has not been confirmed from official sources, and he himself has not commented on the reasons for his departure, so until he does, it could be for any number of reasons. However, the timing of the resignation the day after the war reignites (and indications are growing of shaping operations being prepared), is quite coincidental for this to be unrelated. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: It will take a few more days before the dust settles and proper assessments of battle damage can be conducted regarding the latest rounds of targeting both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. As it stands right now, the war in Ukraine remains very hot and very active, and the war in the Middle East has ebbed and flowed as the United States adopts more of a "mowing the lawn" approach to the conflict (or at least, that seems to be the motivation for the latest round of strikes). Separately, time is running out on the petroleum front, and the attempts to mitigate the energy crisis have not been as effective as hoped for. The American operation to shuttle tankers back-and-forth through the Strait, to play a grand shell game of shuttling oil from ship-to-ship once in the Gulf of Oman has had some positive impact. How much impact is hard to say, because how the data is being counted can be framed in many different ways to support various contradictory arguments, but right now (as per Kpler) the bottom-line figure for how much oil is exiting the Gulf via the Strait is 8.6 million bbl/day (or at least it was during the lull over the past month). Since Kpler did not factor in the Saudi East-West pipeline for this figure, we have to add that critical resource to the overall total. However Kpler also confirmed that as of July, these two pipelines that are supposedly rated for allowing around 7 million barrels per day to bypass the Strait...were only resulting in a total export of 1 million barrels, a fraction of what the ecosystem is rated for. The reason for this, is the bottleneck at the ports. Even loading oil onto ships as fast as humanly possible, they can only manage to get 1 million barrels out per day. It doesn't matter how fast the oil flows through a pipeline, if it cannot flow onto ships at the same rate, and right now, the oil terminals on the Saudi coastline are the weakest link in the chain. These bottlenecks, combined with the Houthi attacks on the Jazan refinery, have sharply reduced the main alternative method for bypassing the Strait with at least some petroleum product. Around the region more optimistic reports indicate that, all total, as much as half of the world's pre-war needs have been met by the efforts to get oil out of the Gulf region. Even with all of the tricks we've tried (and factoring in Omani-shuttle operations AND the Saudi bypass pipeline), we're only reaching "half of normal", at best. As this 8.6 million bbl/day figure is the absolute maximum theoretical figure (due to much of this oil being secretly transferred between ships as part of the shell game), there is variance in the data. Regardless of how it's counted, 8.6 million barrels is most assuredly welcome, but it's still nowhere near enough to prevent the civilization-level energy crisis that the entire planet is experiencing at present. Now that the tit-for-tat strikes have resumed over the past few days, this absolute-best-case-scenario figure of 9 million barrels per day is likely to be reduced quite a bit. Looking forward over the next few weeks, this crisis will probably be complicated even further by a decline in demand; most major prediction models project a decline in demand due to the petroleum shortage going on for so long now. Also, the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will be running dry soon, to the point that tank-bottom will be approaching within a couple of weeks, if the current rates of release continue. Now that the war has resumed somewhat (and oil prices are spiking), solutions d | |||
| The Wire - August 31, 2026 | 01 sept. 2026 | 00:03:28 | |
//The Wire//2300Z August 31, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Over the weekend, the war resumed it's more kinetic phase as the United States carried out strikes on Iran. Larak Island was the primary target, with strikes taking place to target Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to launch rockets suspected of carrying sea mines. Locals report that two launchers were struck, killing two soldiers. In retaliation, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, all targeting US bases in the region. Jordan and the UAE reported strikes targeting airbases used by the United States, but the success rate is unknown. Initial imagery obtained via the Sentinel-2 sensors indicates a hanger and a barracks building might have been hit at Muwwafaq al Salti. Footage provided by locals indicates that at least two Iranian ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but it's likely that at least several got through missile defenses to strike at least two bases in Jordan. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Once more into the breach, so it seems. The grand question now is whether or not the weekend strikes will continue to escalate. The White House has stated that the US will respond to Iran's counterattack with a counter-counterattack, and as it stands, more targeting is likely. More broadly, the weekend targeting confirms several different lingering theories. For one, diplomacy is completely off of the table for now. Many people theorized that the past month of essentially very little fighting was a prelude to an exit strategy. However, conducting strikes during a lull in the fighting is not indicative of any kind of diplomatic intent to end the war. Secondly, conducting strikes targeting sea mine launchers also directly confirms that Iran has this capability. For years, it has been widely known that Iran has the ability to lay mines in the Strait via rockets (without ever sending boats out), but how effective they are at such has been hotly debated over the years. The fact that the US hit these launcher sites confirms that this capability and threat is genuine enough to warrant kinetic action. Also of note, President Trump posted two AI-generated videos on his Truth Social account last night, depicting the United States blowing up Kharg Island. As of this morning, Kharg Island (which is at the opposite end of the Gulf) has not been targeted during this latest round of strikes. The intent of posting AI-generated videos regarding kinetic targeting is not clear. This could be a classically flamboyant Trump post, or it could be intended to deceive people who might not understand that they are not real videos. Even more concerningly, President Trump himself might believe it to be a genuine video (or an AI approximation of a real-world event). One might think that this would be preposterous (because the videos are obviously AI), but the precedent has already been set in Congress....AI-generated content that claims to be real footage has already been used by members of Congress on the House floor several times over the past year. AI models are already blurring the line between fiction and reality, and now the line is blurred even further, if the White House is going to start providing AI-generated content of airstrikes that never happened. When it comes to corroborating what has been targeted via other governmental agencies, the picture is not so clear either: The CENTCOM social media page on X did not disclose the fact that strikes took place. However, CENTCOM did issue one of their infamous "fact check" posts, which indirectly confirms that they did conduct strikes in Iran (though they did not confirm the exact location of those strikes). Where we go from here is anyone's guess, but the truth of what's going on on the ground is getting harder to discern. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| Intel Update - August 29 - Deception Abounds | 30 août 2026 | 00:22:13 | |
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:38 - Cyberattacks 01:38 - Secret Route? - No. 06:29 - Could it work? 11:16 - Ukraine 16:01 - Homeland Weirdness 20:16 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA | |||
| The Wire - August 28, 2026 | 28 août 2026 | 00:03:11 | |
//The Wire//2300Z August 28, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Europe: Following yesterday's assassination in St. Petersburg, long-range Russian and Ukrainian drone attacks continued. Several more warehouses and logistical hubs were hit within Ukraine, and this morning Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Tu-95 Bear H parked on the apron at Engels Airbase in Saratov. United Kingdom: This morning a large fire was reported at an industrial warehouse in London, near Wembley Stadium. Local authorities state that this facility was a waste processing facility located next to an Amazon warehouse (which was evacuated due to the fire). The cause of the fire is not known at this time. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning an incident was reported aboard the Presidential MARINE ONE helicopter, while President Trump was onboard. The tower at Reagan National experienced communications issues with MARINE ONE, which involved radio transmissions being dropped between the helicopter and the tower. Analyst Comment: As the protection and transportation of the President is a zero-fail mission, what would ordinarily be a minor issue becomes a mission-critical failure. Ordinarily, today's incident would be a minor issue for any other aircraft, as it's not uncommon for minor comms issues to be present within the world of aviation and not being able to contact the tower for a few seconds is hardly groundbreaking news in most other circumstances. However, little mistakes become big ones in D.C, especially considering the wider implications. If the most important aircraft in the country has to relay comms to the tower via other aircraft, that is a national security concern. If this were an isolated incident it would be nothing more than something to mention at a turnover briefing for the day, but Washington Tower has a long history of major incidents: From fistfights in tower last year, to the deaths of 67x people during the AA5342 disaster, and even the incidents involving MARINE ONE just a few weeks ago, the management of the personnel and communications systems at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport have been persistent issues that present very real risks to the National Capitol Region. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the situation remains much the same as before, with a brief lull in the targeting efforts being undertaken overnight by Iran. This lull came to an end this afternoon, after another vessel was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, with unknown success. On the American side, there's lots of rumor and talk behind the scenes regarding the overall strategic plan, most of which is only a loose indicator of how the war is going. This morning Axios leaked details pertaining to several Foreign Ministers around the Middle East being told by SECSTATE Marco Rubio, that the US is probably not going to resume kinetic targeting until at least after the midterms. While the sourcing of this is dubious at best, this does make sense based on how things have gone over the past month. Months ago, the war lasting until next year (at minimum) sounded laughably unlikely, but at this stage, this timeline seems realistic. The one determining factor is the underlying energy crisis, and what happens when a global maritime choke point remains in the conflict zone for this long. Uncharted territory is ahead, and in terms of the tactical situation on the ground, no indicators are present that suggest the conflict will reach a point of conclusion anytime soon. Analyst: S2A1 | |||
| The Wire - August 27, 2026 | 27 août 2026 | 00:02:50 | |
//The Wire//2100Z August 27, 2026// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: Overnight, Iran struck another tanker vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel has been identified as the M/T AL SALAM II, a Kuwaiti-owned tanker attempting to exit the Gulf. Analyst Comment: Claims are circulating that Iran conducted this strike using underwater drones, similarly to claims that were made last week regarding Iran using underwater drones to conduct attacks. There is no way to verify this either way, but if true, this would be the second such attack on a vessel this month. Russia: This morning an assassination was carried out in St. Petersburg, which took the form of an IED exploding inside the vehicle of a Russian Air Force Lieutenant Colonel. The man (who has not yet been identified) was killed instantly, and his wife remains in critical condition following the blast. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the United States, various federal databases have been hacked by malign actors, including the systems used by high-level government agencies. The DoJ alleged that the Nanjing Xinjiuwei Network Technology Company was responsible for compromising the systems used by the Federal Reserve, three different National Laboratories, the National Institute of Health, and several other unnamed agencies. On the same day, the ATF also disclosed that systems related to their gun registries were breached. The Chinese hacking group Qilin posted the ransomware disclosure on their website, claiming to have a trove of unspecified documents that they stole from the ATF. These confirmed cyberattacks continue the trend that has been building over the past few weeks. From the cyberattacks on water treatment facilities a couple of weeks ago, to federal agencies being hacked in undisclosed ways, the war on the cyber front is palpable. This cyberwarfare has not been confined to the United States either; at the exact same time that unknown hackers were taking out the water infrastructure in Minnesota, the United Kingdom reported that one of their power plants was hacked and taken offline for a total of four days. This afternoon, Manchester Airport Group announced that another major cyberattack has breached the data of over 8.7 million customers who traveled through three airports in the U.K. As the United States and Iran continue their latest stage of the war, and Russia and Ukraine continue their war, these cyberattacks are probably going to get a lot worse, both in the scale of what systems are affected, but also the types of targets selected. So far, none of the groups engaging in cyberattacks have demonstrated any hesitancy to avoid targeting civilian targets...these groups on all sides will exploit any vulnerability they find, particularly to target a civilian populace. As civilian critical infrastructure around the world remains vastly more vulnerable than government networks...when those government networks themselves are constantly proven to not be safe, much softer targets are very likely to be impacted more severely as global tensions continue. Analyst: S2A1 | |||