0:28 Tragedy strikes the Wright household 4:20 Breaking down the big Trump-Kamala debate 22:44 Are debates actually valuable? 26:16 Kamala’s worst debate moment (according to Bob) 33:39 Elon vs Taylor Swift, Brazil, and himself 37:19 Bob and Paul argue about free speech 45:18 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded September 11, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:00 Is Ukraine’s Kursk invasion failing? 6:05 Why Russia may outlast the West in Ukraine 14:20 Zelensky’s cabinet shakeup 16:50 Prospects for a peace deal 26:25 Russian elites’ views on the war 36:44 How the Global South can help end the conflict 42:40 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Anatol Lieven (The Quincy Institute). Recorded September 05, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:28 Nick’s influential book Superintelligence and his new book Deep Utopia 3:13 Has Nick flipped on AI doom? 10:57 Life in the “solved world” of an AI utopia 20:44 Can technology address the deepest problems of human nature? 30:07 Meaning, artificial purpose, and the value of golf 46:22 The promise and perils of virtual reality 51:23 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nick Bostrom (Superintelligence, Macrostrategy Research Initiative, Deep Utopia). Recorded July 11, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from The Earthling. Read this edition of the Earthling at: https://nonzero.substack.com/p/israel...

Recorded October 27, 2023.

1:18 Why Leonid considers his nationality “journalist” 8:40 How the West alienated Russia 14:36 Are Russia’s pro-Ukraine “liberals” actually far right? 25:30 How Putin is responding to Israel's war on Hamas 35:25 Are western experts more clear-minded about Israel-Hamas than Russia-Ukraine? 39:47 Is Ukraine at risk of losing significant amounts of territory? 50:51 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Leonid Ragozin (Rest of World, West of Providence, Lonely Planet). Recorded October 26, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

2:06 Why hasn’t the ground invasion happened yet? 8:22 Do conditions in Gaza make terrorism more likely? 16:37 Palestinian violence compared to Israeli violence 27:05 Did Israel really offer the Palestinians a state two decades ago? 32:43 Does Hamas have much support in the West? 39:55 What should be done about Hamas? 51:09 Israel’s blockade of Gaza and strategy of massive retaliation 58:27 Indignities suffered by Palestinians in the West Bank 1:08:21 Should West Bank Palestinians focus on demanding the vote? 1:13:30 Eli’s growing interest in the deep state

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Eli Lake (The New York Sun, Commentary, Clements Center, The Re-Education). Recorded October 24, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Recorded October 20, 2023.

0:34 The Unspeakeasy, the newest arm of the Meghan-industrial complex 7:53 Meghan’s prestigious place in Parrot Room history 11:20 Has wokeness won? 19:48 How common is anti-semitism on the left? 32:40 Israel-Palestine’s destructive non-zero-sum dynamics 50:02 Meghan’s highly therapeutic Unspeakeasy retreats

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Meghan Daum (https://meghandaum.substack.com, https://aspecialplace.substack.com, https://www.theunspeakeasy.com). Recorded October 19, 2023.

Meghan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/meghan_daum

2:05 Israel’s military plans for northern Gaza 5:05 How does international law apply to Israel and Hamas? 16:15 The first casualty of war is truth 24:50 Do Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute ethnic cleansing? 32:06 The evolving definition of genocide 39:36 How the US and Israel helped Hamas seize power 50:18 America’s ill-fated push for Arab-Israeli normalization 53:17 The hazards of overreacting to Hamas’s attack 1:01:26 How western media has covered the conflict so far

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Sarah Leah Whitson (Democracy for the Arab World Now). Recorded October 16, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Recorded October 13, 2023.

0:33 Paul’s humble new ventures with Substack and Nonzero 6:07 Israel-Palestine, exploitative media, and the pitfalls of empathy 19:04 Paul’s plaudits for Mickey and the Parrot Room 22:11 Elon Musk and Derek Parfit: compare and contrast 29:24 Is there a method to Musk’s mad genius? 36:01 The radical rationalism that forged SBF 43:07 How real is implicit bias? 55:48 How real is SBF? 58:25 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded October 13, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment and American Prestige discount subscription link available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

0:33 Nonzero/American Prestige cocktail with a hybrid episode twist 2:23 Was Hamas’s attack a predictable response to conditions in Gaza? 14:43 Did Biden’s foreign policy make the attack more likely? 25:20 America’s unstrategic Middle East strategy 30:35 Can anything good come out of the current crisis? 39:56 The Nonzero/American Prestige crossover arc 42:39 How to stay sane as a critic of US foreign policy 48:13 Biden vs Trump: Who’s the lesser evil on foreign policy? 52:12 Strains within the restrainer coalition 57:37 Is there any hope left for international law? 1:07:19 Bob’s pitch for (sober) AI alarmism 1:12:20 Heading to Overtime—and a special offer for listeners!

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True), Derek Davison (Foreign Exchanges, American Prestige, Discontents), and Daniel Bessner (American Prestige, University of Washington). Recorded October 05, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

American Prestige on Substack:

1:52 Important reminder about the Friday podcast 3:33 Sam Bankman-Fried’s plan to stop Trump 8:20 Biden’s new policy: Build the wall! 17:28 Why is life expectancy dropping for some demographics in America? 20:07 Should Democrats have helped Kevin McCarthy remain speaker? 27:28 The Blob starts to think like Bob on Russia-Ukraine 34:45 Should the US impose conditions on aid to Ukraine? 45:08 What war with China over Taiwan would look like 49:12 Parrot Room preview: McCarthyism at the news outlet Semafor. Michael Lewis’s new book on Sam Bankman-Fried. Parrot reminiscing. Evolution and homosexuality. Christopher Rufo defends Nixon

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded October 06, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

1:13 Dmitri’s new book, World on the Brink 9:26 Is America’s behavior more destabilizing than China’s? 17:22 China-Taiwan compared to Russia-Ukraine 28:00 Is the US making a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more likely? 41:31 Should the US try to maintain global hegemony? 55:06 The “autocracy versus democracy” framing

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Dmitri Alperovitch (Crowdstrike, Silverado, World on the Brink). Recorded July 24, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

2:16 Has Biden abandoned longstanding US policy on Taiwan? 9:31 The sobering results of recent US-China war games 19:33 Would China ever accept defeat in Taiwan? 28:17 Why the US might bomb Taiwan’s microchip factories 34:44 How war over Taiwan could unfold 48:33 Lyle: DC think tanks are underestimating China's military 55:43 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Lyle Goldstein (Defense Priorities, Watson Institute, Meeting China Halfway). Recorded October 02, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:33 Mickey, the man from the future, times out on this week’s quiz 8:00 Winners, losers, and bigger losers of the GOP debate 20:18 Semafor’s Iran influence exposé: (semi-)exposed! 28:04 How is Menendez still standing? Mickey has a theory 33:15 Bad socio-economic omens for Biden’s 2024 bid 39:05 Ukraine war update 45:47 Is elite opinion on immigration shifting? 52:23 Next week: The final Parrot Room

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded September 29, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

2:02 Senator Bob Menendez accused of brazen corruption6:46 The issue that could sink Trump's campaign17:29 Unpacking the mystery of America’s open border24:47 Is Biden worried about a coup by Democratic Party elites?34:35 Ukraine’s international support shows signs of waning44:54 Democrats downgrade Senate dress code49:48 Parrot Room preview: Marty Peretz’s new book; UAW strike; insidious AI sexbots

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded September 22, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

1:37 Azerbaijan attacks Nagorno-Karabakh 6:28 Preview of this week’s Biden-Zelensky meeting in DC 16:26 Does the new technology of war favor defense? 24:26 Is Zelensky thinking clearly about Ukraine’s military chances? 30:09 What Anatol learned from his discussions with wounded Ukrainian soldiers 36:34 If the US pushed for peace, would Putin be ready to make a deal? 48:08 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Anatol Lieven (The Quincy Institute). Recorded September 19, 2023.

2:38 Walter Isaacson’s Elon-Ukraine walk-back 7:01 Debating Biden replacement theories 16:02 Bob’s hurricane-induced bandwidth problems 20:03 Biden’s age-induced bandwidth problems 30:48 Ukraine war update 40:48 Mitt Romney bows out 51:11 The smoke-filled room shortage 56:28 Parrot room preview: UAW strike; JFK assassination revelation; Where in the world is Tim Scott’s girlfriend?; Poverty stat controversy; knives out for Noem; Bob’s agent on Bob; Mickey’s fashion corner

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded September 15, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

1:23 Almut’s work as a feminist activist in the former Soviet Union 11:53 How economic anxiety helped tear Ukraine apart 23:12 The very complex coalition behind the Maidan Revolution 30:24 Could wiser European Union policy have averted the Russia-Ukraine conflict? 37:11 Queer feminists and the ultra-right in Ukraine 48:20 The nature of Ukrainian nationalism 59:12 Heading into Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Almut Rochowanski (https://discomfortzone.substack.com/). Recorded September 12, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Subscribe to The Parrot Room at https://patreon.com/parrotroom

0:42 Nikki Haley beats Biden in new poll 8:14 How big is Ukraine’s military "breakthrough"? 15:35 Signs that Russia is ready for peace talks 26:49 Why are Americans feeling down on the economy? 33:52 DeSantis takes care of business in hurricane-wrecked Florida 41:06 Are the punishments for January 6 rioters too severe? 51:42 How much time is there for a formidable Democrat to challenge Biden for the nomination? 56:57 Bob and Mickey make big announcement

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded September 08, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

0:33 Tim’s article explaining large language models 03:23 Do LLMs reverse engineer the human mind? 11:24 GPT’s mesmerizing emergent properties 17:43 The ‘T’ in Chat-GPT 30:33 How AI models evolve during training 41:59 Human intelligence compared to artificial intelligence 49:10 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Timothy B. Lee (Full Stack Economics, Understanding AI). Recorded August 16, 2023.

Tim's Substack newsletter: understandingAI.org

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Seems like only last week I was saying there wouldn’t be a Nonzero Newsletter sent out today, owing to the end-of-summer quasi-vacation granted to hard-working NZN staffers. And it’s true that the Earthling, the weekend edition of NZN, is skipping this week and next. However, yesterday I had a conversation that was so timely and interesting that I figured I’d share some transcript excerpts—below—with NZN subscribers.

The conversation is with Nikita Petrov, who left Russia shortly after the invasion of Ukraine but is monitoring the Russian zeitgeist (and publishing his newsletter Psychopolitica) from Armenia. The subject of the conversation is Yevgeny Prigozhin, long-time leader of the mercenary Wagner Group.

This June, you might remember, Prigozhin staged a short-lived mutiny against Russia’s military leadership. So when his plane blew up a couple of days ago, pretty much everyone suspected Putin’s handiwork. (Although, as Nikita explains, according to a conspiracy theory circulating in Russia, there’s less to Prigozhin’s apparent death than meets the eye.)

Paid subscribers can listen to the full conversation via the audio player above or via their NZN member podcast feed. (To set up that feed, if you’re a paid subscriber and haven’t done that already, click “Listen on” in the audio player and follow the directions.) 

Hope you enjoy the excerpts below. More of the conversation will be available in the public podcast we post next week, though the Overtime segment—the final 40 minutes or so—will remain exclusive to paid subscribers.

—Bob

Bob: We’re taping this on the day after a plane went down that apparently included Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, along with his top commander, the guy from whom the Wagner Group got its name—“Wagner” was his call sign. 

Nikita: Yep.

Bob: And I actually haven't even looked at the news this morning, but it didn't seem to me there was that much doubt, even though they hadn't identified bodies or anything. I assume no one's doubting that he's— 

Nikita: Well, there are two main theories that I've been hearing. One is the straightforward one: Prigozhin and the top command are dead, and Putin is behind it. 

The other version is: This is Prigozhin’s disappearance. He’s somewhere on an island right now drinking a martini, and this is his way out of the business. Normally I would say there's no reason whatsoever to contemplate that approach. But since this is Prigozhin, and we've seen like six fake passports of his with toupees and beards and whatnot. And generally, he’s, you know, a peculiar character, he's fighting in Africa, and then he's in Ukraine, and he also has a catering business, and a troll farm. I think that's not a zero-chance probability, but I don't think it's a high-chance probability either.

Bob: On the other hand, Russia has always been a hotbed for this kind of theorizing, right? 

Nikita: Yes. Yes. It’s a normal thing for Russians. Whatever happens, there's always a conspiracy theory right away.

Bob: So there’s a pretty high false positive rate on conspiracy theories in Russia—and increasingly in America. Maybe this can bring the two nations together, that we have this in common.

Nikita: I think there is some overlap. I mean, before the war, there were tribes within Russia and the US who were growing closer together, like the QAnon people. And even with the war—

Bob: That kind of makes sense actually. Go ahead.

Nikita: I was surprised. About a month and a half ago, RFK [Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.] got into that scandal because he said something about Covid, and the way his words were interpreted was that there is a chance that it was designed by the Chinese in a lab and it targets certain groups more than others.

Bob: Right. 

Nikita: And he started talking about bioweapons and whatnot. I think he talked about biolabs in Ukraine. 

Bob: Yeah. That's a thing. That’s a talking point.

Nikita: Until then, I was not aware that anybody in the West thinks that. But it was a big part of the Russian propaganda, some versions of which are very strange. On the one hand, according to Russian state propaganda, the Russians and Ukrainians are really the same people, but also, there are biolabs in Ukraine that were designing viruses that would target specifically Russians.

Bob: It’s a very discerning virus! It picks up on the most subtle differences in DNA. 

. . .

Bob: But, on Prigozhin, tell me… presumably the [staged disappearance] theory is that he actually feared something like this happening for real, right? I mean, he didn't feel safe in this world. 

Nikita: Either that, or another version of the same theory would be that he made a deal with Putin, that this is how I’m gonna go out. 

Bob: Oh, and then you [Putin] will look like you were the tough guy and did crack down. 

Nikita: That's right. And I’ll [Prigozhin] get my pension and I’m fine. 

Bob: I've got a feeling he doesn't need a pension. I forget how much cash was found in his apartment, but I suspect that he's got stashes in various places. 

Nikita: [laughter] That’s right.  

Bob: So anyway, your sense is, not that you're in Russia, but your sense is that this will be a minority interpretation anyway, that he's not actually dead?

Nikita: From what I've heard so far, most people say there's also this possibility, but it's probably a low possibility. So, I haven't met a true believer in this theory so far. I mean, it's been a day—it's been less than a day. But it's brought up and discussed as a low probability option. 

And we will never know, I suppose, because the bodies are burned. We’re not going to see a picture of Prigozhin that we can recognize. And the people who will tell us (and they might have already; I saw some reports that sounded more official than what I saw last evening, saying yes, this is Prigozhin and Utkin and the other passengers who were supposed to be on the plane) the people who are going to tell us this are the authorities, which if they are the ones who decided to do this staged disappearance, you know, you're not supposed to trust them.

Bob: Right. 

Nikita: But I don't think it matters, frankly. I think that’s the low probability version, and I don't think it matters, because both options lead to Prigozhin not being here anymore. If he lives a private life on an island somewhere—

Bob: He seems out of the picture. And everyone else will act on the assumption that Putin did it.

Nikita: That's right. 

Bob: Is your sense that among those Russians who do believe Prigozhin’s dead, overwhelmingly the assumption is Putin decided to take him out? 

Nikita: Yes. Yes. 

Bob: I can't even come up with another theory. Has it been confirmed that there was an anti-aircraft missile fired at the plane, or is that still—

Nikita: No, I think they are saying now that there was an explosive in the chassis, the wheel of the plane. And they say they have a suspect, Prigozhin’s private pilot, who was supposed to be on the flight maybe, or at least was able to access the plane. And he’s MIA somewhere. Some friend of his said that he's trekking in Siberia, or something along those lines. So, they have a suspect and a theory. It doesn't go further than that guy so far, like, why would his pilot do this? But I think that might become the official narrative. This is what I'm seeing this morning.

Bob: So is it confirmed that the pilot was not on the plane, the regular pilot? 

Nikita: I think. He was called Prigozhin’s private pilot.  I'm not sure he was supposed to be on this plane. He just flew with Prigozhin before, so they are singling him out as a suspect. 

Bob: I see. Do you think Putin would go to the trouble to frame somebody, and do the whole court proceeding, and put them in prison? I mean, it's weird, because presumably Putin wants a certain crowd to know he did it, including possibly much of the world, right? He wants some people to think, yeah, Putin cracked down, let's don't plot any mutinies anytime soon. I mean, that's the thing about this. It's so blatant, right? 

With most of the past assassinations attributed to Putin, there wasn't rock solid evidence. And in fact, I would run into smart people who paid attention, and I'd say, what do you think the chances are that this guy was taken out by Putin? They'd say, well, probably, or 90 per cent or 95 per cent. I don't think you're going to hear many people as low as 95 per cent on this one. It seems like this time, it’s a more unabashed assassination.

Nikita: I think that's true. But also, nobody tried to, you know, take his private army and march on Moscow before. 

Bob: Right, right. Absolutely. You know, right after this happened, right after the mutiny, and after the deal was negotiated, American Russia hawks like Michael McFaul said, see, all this stuff about how Putin if you corner him is dangerous, is wrong. We don't need to worry about pushing them out of Crimea and back into Russia and even, what is happening now, attacks on Russian territory. McFaul said, this just shows he'll fold; it's a bluff.  What McFaul said is that he capitulated. And first of all, I pointed out, he did not capitulate. He didn't meet Prigozhin’s demands. That's capitulation, if you do fire Shoigu and Gerasimov, the two military chiefs he wanted fired. 

And I'd be interested in your take on this. Leave aside the fact that apparently, ultimately, Prigozhin paid the ultimate price. I thought, given the situation Putin was in, he didn't handle it that badly. I mean, you’ve got 5,000 troops marching to Moscow. Things could get seriously out of hand, even if you're confident you can put it down. These people are considered war heroes by a lot of Russians, right? They're the guys who did Bakhmut. They have a base. And after Wagner had shot down the planes, to get out of it with no further bloodshed… 

Leaving aside the fact that ultimately Putin had it both ways, he finessed it without a big confrontation and got Prigozhin killed, what did you think after the event?

Nikita: Well, first of all, during the event itself, and the few days after, the prevalent feeling among all the Russians I know, whether inside or outside Russia, was just how bizarre this whole thing is. Especially as the events were unfolding, like, he started to march, you start to get these audio messages, you get updates in Telegram from Prigozhin himself.

For a while, it wasn't clear whether this is actually happening or not. He’s saying that they're marching on Rostov and it’s like, is he? I haven't seen any pictures. It's just Prigozhin saying that, and he's known for playing games. And then suddenly there are tanks in Rostov.

And then he's saying he's marching on Moscow. My brother was in Moscow at the time, and he went into the streets, and he said it was a weird, weird feeling, having been there for a long time, that the cops and the people are on the same side, because the cops in Moscow and people in Moscow were expecting this army to show up. And the cops seemed nervous and unsure what to do.

. . .

Nikita: So the prevalent feeling from this whole experience was just: This is bizarre and weird. When the analysis started to come in three days, four days after the thing, I had the feeling that maybe this is us trying to pretend that we understand what is going on. Because these past couple of days, nobody knew what was happening. Every theory was thrown out there, whether it's staged, whether it's real. You've heard these, you know, Prigozhin agreed with Putin that he's going to do this thing to find the people who are actually not loyal enough. There was all of this, and nobody had a good theory because the straightforward one seemed also too weird.

Bob: Yeah.

Nikita: But now in the aftermath, I agree with you that Putin did not lose control. And now, the Russian word they use is signal. This is a strong signal that he's sending that if you try to do this, you're going to blow up.

But I think a lot of people did feel as this was happening, surely, that this is not the behavior of a strong leader, because he was nowhere to be found. The day of, Peskov, his spokesperson, said that Putin knows about the situation. But that was all. And then in the morning, he [Putin] made this speech. And during the day, as this was happening, there weren't a lot of people who really jumped in front of the situation and said, I support the president of my country and this is mutiny. They started saying that as the situation progressed and it became more clear that this is what you're supposed to be doing.

. . .

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

0:42 Nikita’s life as an expatriate 5:18 Theories among Russians about Prigozhin’s death 17:29 Putin’s handling of the Wagner mutiny, reassessed 25:46 Did Prigozhin lose his mind? 35:36 How worried should Putin be about Prigozhin’s supporters? 43:15 Russians’ evolving views of the invasion 50:50 Is Putin feeling heat from the nationalist right? Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nikita Petrov (https://psychopolitica.substack.com/). Recorded August 24, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66636 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Subscribe to The Parrot Room at https://patreon.com/parrotroom

0:33 Mickey gets a C on the news quiz 10:11 Prigozhin postmortem: Is Putin’s regime more secure now? 17:31 The Ukraine war as “politics by other means” 20:24 The good, the bad, and the ugly of the GOP debate 25:45 Will the indictments help Trump in the general election? 34:21 Parrot room preview: Why Bob finds Vivek scary and “Rich Men North of Richmond” icky; Extraordinary Attorney Woo; Hurricane Hilary hype; retail “shrink” hits the big time; Bidenomics and E.J. Dionne; Do presidential candidates need to be optimistic?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded August 25, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66623 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from this week’s Earthling.

0:33 Has David’s grim outlook on the climate changed? 20:15 How “global warming” became “climate change” 13:38 What wilder wildfires signal about the environment 25:02 Which climate measures are the surest bet? 31:41 Climate science’s time-scale problem 39:03 The pros and cons of carbon capture 48:20 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and David Wallace-Wells (The New York Times, The Uninhabitable Earth). Recorded August 17, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66601 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Subscribe to The Parrot Room at https://patreon.com/parrotroom

2:52 Yet another Trump indictment—How strong is the case? 12:46 Is America becoming a banana republic? 20:47 DeSantis debate strategy goes public 31:35 Bob floats secret elite plot to get Biden off the Democratic ticket 37:07 Why Ukraine’s stalled offensive is politically hazardous for Biden 48:47 Parrot Room preview: US-China war games; Sam Bankman-Fried back in jail; Hunter Biden scandal updates; populist anthem sweeps America; colorful LA character passes away; San Diego’s successful homeless policy; Twitter versus Threads; and signs of AI enlightenment.

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded August 18, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66569 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Robert Wright and Tamler Sommers discuss what you can and can't say about UFOs.

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Tamler Sommers (Very Bad Wizards, University of Houston, Why Honor Matters). Recorded August 03, 2023.

Nonzero Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Very Bad Wizards: https://verybadwizards.com/

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

0:33 Sohrab’s idiosyncratic ideological journey 10:04 What makes Sohrab a conservative? 15:58 Sohrab’s new book Tyranny, Inc.—a critique of neoliberal capitalism’s effects on American life 24:09 What happened to the labor movement in America? 36:12 Private equity’s role in Sears’s demise 45:19 “Ghost papers”: Wall Street's effect on local news 51:22 Overtime preview: Sohrab’s foreign policy; supporting Donald Trump; re-industrializing without Cold War II; and what is to be done?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Sohrab Ahmari (Compact Magazine, Tyranny, Inc.). Recorded August 15, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66557 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Subscribe to The Parrot Room at https://patreon.com/parrotroom

0:33 New challenges for Ukraine 7:06 What do lead pipes have to do with climate migrants? Ask Biden 14:07 Are the Bidens corruption “disruptors”? 23:41 Mickey’s craziest theory of the week 26:32 Another wrinkle in the Hunter Biden scandal 32:20 What mainstream media won’t tell you about Iran 37:53 Mickey’s searing critique of Obama 47:24 Parrot room preview: Mickey on the Trump cases; RIP Robbie Robertson; Tim Scott’s campaign expense weirdness; Biden's strange Saudi-Israel plan; Code Pink; assessing the UFO whistleblower; San Francisco's autonomous cabs; Michael Lind vs Richard Hanania; losing Sugar Man; Oppenheimer (the documentary); Sohrab Ahmari; a cornucopia of comments

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded August 11, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66546 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

1:41 How US-China rivalry is shaking up the region 12:44 Why Washington wants to control the Middle East oil spigot 25:01 The odds of an imminent confrontation with Iran 30:49 Is America breaking international law in Syria? 42:55 What would a Middle East without US intervention look like? 48:25 Why Israel lacks a written constitution 55:27 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Joshua Landis (University of Oklahoma, SyriaComment.com). Recorded August 08, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66533 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Subscribe to The Parrot Room at https://patreon.com/parrotroom

0:33 Jeffrey Goldberg becomes King of Washington 5:24 Does Trump prosecutor Jack Smith have the goods? 21:48 Hunter Biden’s corruption defense: It was all an illusion 31:52 President Biden’s Ukraine quagmire 41:25 What Trump gets right about Russia-Ukraine 48:17 Is West Africa heading toward a major war? 52:08 Parrot Room preview: A PBS lament; Mickey’s border worries; Bob’s reflection on jury duty; the economics of electric vehicles; the UFO files; Italy pivots away from guaranteed income; over-the-counter Alzheimer’s test; US-China decoupling; room-temperature superconductors; and the limits of AI

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded August 04, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66526 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

1:06 Bob and Dan reminisce about blogging and Bloggingheads 8:17 Was the first year of Russia’s invasion a success for US foreign policy? 17:45 When will Putin be ready to cut a deal? 23:13 The odds of a wider war—or a nuclear one 27:45 What good can come from continuing the war? 41:08 Has the US mismanaged its relationship with Putin’s Russia? 50:56 Putin’s fear of western-backed color revolutions

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Daniel Drezner (PostEverything, Tufts University, Drezner's World). Recorded July 31, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66511 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

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0:34 Bob extols the virtues of jury duty 4:27 Ukraine’s counter offensive surge 16:42 What does Hunter’s failed plea deal mean for Joe? 24:03 In search of a DeSantis strategy 32:13 The Niger coup and Cold War II 44:12 Parrot room preview: Israel’s issues; musings on late musicians; Is Ramaswamy surging?; New lab leak controversy; Mickey’s border question for Biden; Is DEI d-e-a-d?; A crazy (ex-)Twitter theory; AI self-regulation

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded July 28, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66501 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

(Overtime segment available to paid subscribers below the paywall.)

2:21 Where AI fits in Connor’s tech threat taxonomy 15:10 What does the “general” in artificial general intelligence actually mean? 22:26 What should worry us about AI right now? 30:01 Connor: Don’t put your trust in AI companies 39:28 The promise and perils of open-sourcing AI 49:52 Why "interpretability" matters 56:31 What would an aligned AI actually look like? 1:01:00 Bridging the technology wisdom gap

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Connor Leahy (Conjecture). Recorded July 11, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66476 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:28 The Nonzero-American Prestige all-star team 2:13 Why didn’t the Trump shooting matter more? 7:16 What anti-Trump historians get wrong 18:05 Why Kamala shouldn't demonize Trump 29:59 Heading to Overtime—and a discount deal

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True), Derek Davison (Foreign Exchanges, American Prestige, Discontents), and Daniel Bessner (American Prestige, University of Washington). Recorded July 25, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

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0:34 Senator Chris Murphy declares war on loneliness 8:58 Why is the Ukraine offensive going badly? 14:51 Why Biden should push for peace talks now 24:37 Threads unravels 35:23 Was RFK’s Covid conjecture anti-Semitic? 43:11 Mickey reviews the MSM version of DeSantis 52:15 American diplomacy update: murky scandals and trash talk 56:39 Parrot Room preview: Biden corruption scandal; electric car paranoia; what Trump will do if he wins; Mickey on Xi Jinping; Trump’s trials; Tony Bennett passes away; Meta’s dubious AI policy; Is the internet annoying, or is Bob just old?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded July 21, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/664663 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:33 What is this new Overton Windows series about? 10:05 Tamler’s connections to Israel and Bob’s experiences there 19:22 What does Zionism mean in practice? 27:35 The shifting Overton window around Israel/Palestine 45:35 The heavy-handed response to the BDS movement 57:13 What the Israel/Palestine discourse says about Overton windows 1:02:09 So where should the boundaries be set?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Tamler Sommers (Very Bad Wizards, University of Houston, Why Honor Matters). Recorded June 21, 2023.

Nonzero Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPodsVery Bad Wizards: https://verybadwizards.com/

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0:04 Mickey bats .500 on this week’s news quiz 5:19 Gen. “Spartacus” and other Russians with attitude 17:01 What (or who) is impeding peace in Ukraine? 24:00 What Biden has that other possible Dem candidates don’t 36:04 What Trump’s messaging has that DeSantis’s doesn’t 39:41 Untangling Threads’s early days 53:06 Parrot Room preview: AI update; the mysterious Gal Luft; the irony of Klaatu’s speech; Mickey’s diversity epiphany; Canadian euthanasia initiative; Silo spoilers; AMC Pacer maker passes; Bob’s China vindication; Alan Arkin speech debate round three

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded July 13, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66441 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

RWA Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RussiansWith... RWA podcast episodes: https://www.patreon.com/rwapodcast 01:10 Why Bob invited Russians with Attitude onto the Nonzero Podcast 7:30 Why do Kirill and Nikolay support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? 15:23 Shortcomings of US mainstream media in covering Russia 25:40 The roots of the Donbass rebellion 37:33 Parallels between the Maidan Revolution and the Donbass rebellion 49:05 What was Putin’s main reason for invading? 1:00:53 Is Russia systematically committing war crimes? 1:14:23 Final thoughts from Nikolay and Kirill before heading into Overtime 1:22:23 What was the Prigozhin mutiny really about? 1:29:50 The chances of an imminent ceasefire 1:37:06 How do Nikolay and Kirill self-identify ideologically? 1:44:47 The extent of Russian government repression of dissidents 2:01:14 America’s missed opportunity to bolster global peace and prosperity

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nikolay and Kirill (Russians with Attitude). Recorded July 5, 2023.

2:39 Should GOP candidates attack Trump—or praise him? 14:10 Prigozhin mutiny aftermath gets messy 22:56 Signs of a coming ceasefire in Ukraine 31:57 Does the foreign policy Blob really care about Ukrainians? 38:31 MSM deep-sixes affirmative action ruling 44:24 Is Zuckerberg’s Twitter clone anti-old people? 52:42 Parrot Room preview: New anti-censorship ruling; private companies and the First Amendment; The Day the Earth Stood Still; riots in France; Macron’s good policy idea; artificial intelligence and war; complaints about Timothy Snyder; complaints about the New York Times; Foundation episode 1 review; Elon-Zuckerberg cage match. Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded July 6, 2023. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

02:26 Why Tim thinks AI chatbots are more than just “stochastic parrots” 9:27 Do AIs “understand” things? 21:18 The multidimensional mind of AI 26:28 Humans designed AIs, so why don’t we fully understand how they work? 34:42 The real mystery of smart machines: They learn things we didn’t teach them 42:36 Why deep learning was such a game changer for AI research 57:22 The T in ChatGPT

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Timothy Nguyen (Google).

Overtime segment:

00:00 Why Michael McFaul is wrong about Vladimir Putin 10:13 Is Putin ready for a ceasefire? 22:39 Has SCOTUS succeeded in killing affirmative action? 36:13 Americans do have to pay student loans, don’t have to make LGBT websites 47:29 Is RFK Jr. entering Trump’s orbit? 52:08 Parrot Room preview: GOP election strategy; Bidenomics and national conservatism; band name of the year; Yglesias says liberals have higher IQs; final episode of Silo; Bob reviews Invasion of the Body Snatchers; Titanic submarine tragedy; and reasons to worry about a false flag attack in Ukraine. Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded June 30, 2023.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:33 Sean’s new book, We May Dominate the World: Ambition, Anxiety, and the Rise of the American Colossus 3:52 China’s and Russia’s behavior today compared to America’s a century ago 14:00 If geopolitical realities don’t change, are great powers doomed to blow up the world? 21:12 Why did the US decide to dominate the western hemisphere? 28:19 American interventions from the Civil War to World War I 35:57 Why forceful US interventions in Latin America have become less common 44:45 Were the fears motivating the annexation of Hawaii based in reality? 54:54 Did the Spanish-American War have broad public support?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Sean Mirski (Hoover Institution, We May Dominate the World). Recorded June 22, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66385 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

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0:34 Should Hunter Biden and Trump get the Tim Geithner treatment? 10:36 Bob’s latest evidence that Biden shouldn’t run again 18:43 Have we reached peak RFK Jr.? 23:19 Does the counteroffensive hurt Ukraine’s cause? 30:28 Leaky new dam collapse theory 40:14 The rapidly metastasizing GOP primary field 49:33 Israel-Palestine gets Black Mirror-y 55:43 Alito’s ill-considered trip 1:01:34 Parrot room preview: The right’s schism over capitalism; Prigozhin's insurrection; the Titanic sub tragedy; Why Mickey is growing to hate EVs; Janan Ganesh’s elite take on populism; Bob’s (possibly) new UFO thoughts; Cutting the tax cuts from supply-side economics?; Silo; Biden’s billion-dollar battery bonuses; Biden’s reverse-Epstein problem

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded June 23, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66369 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:00 The (fuzzy) distinction between cognitive and emotional empathy 7:01 Simon’s work on autism and empathy 15:59 Should we really view autism as a spectrum? 26:17 Are powerful people bad at cognitive empathy? 40:19 Hitler, tribalism, and the societal dynamics of empathy 53:58 Can cognitive empathy save the world? 1:00:50 The “double-empathy” problem 1:04:52 How autistic kids play differently

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Simon Baron-Cohen (University of Cambridge, The Science of Evil, The Pattern Seekers). Recorded May 18, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66341 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:58 Who’s most to blame for the Biden mess? 10:23 Why Trump might duck a debate with Kamala 13:26 Is Biden locked in the basement? 22:08 Kamala’s biggest liabilities 33:12 Loyalty, the Mob, and Biden’s psychology 40:33 Conspiracy theories of the Trump shooting 48:27 The kind of VP Kamala should pick

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded July 22, 2024.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

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1:42 Mickey gets a B+ on this week’s news quiz 11:30 Is RFK Jr. the Dem’s key to booting Biden? 20:12 Chris Christie’s chances vs. Trump 24:28 Has Tucker gone off the deep end? 37:16 No, Russia didn’t blow up Ukraine’s dam 43:21 Is the Ukrainian counteroffensive failing? 59:12 Parrot room preview: Remembering Daniel Ellsberg; Elizabeth Gilbert’s self-cancellation; the fake deepfake of John Lennon; Mickey’s AI question; a bit of Epstein news; LIV golf update; Mickey contra popular vote compact; the Blob’s pro-immigration argument; Who’s going to pardon Trump? And why?; Did Harvard or the CIA drive the Unabomber crazy?; RIP Ed Fredkin; Silo; Harvard and the Inuit

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded June 16, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66333 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

00:54 Frank’s book The End of History and the Last Man 10:35 Bob’s book Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny 17:14 Do people have to be rational in order to cooperate? 24:07 Are AI and other technologies advancing too rapidly for society to adapt? 37:21 Frank’s take on Hegel 48:05 Why Frank’s a Russia hawk and Bob's a Russia dove 58:12 Will authoritarian regimes do a better job of dealing with advanced information technologies?

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Francis Fukuyama (Stanford University, The End of History and the Last Man, Liberalism and Its Discontents). Recorded May 23, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66315Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

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3:31 The GOP primary gets crowded 10:56 Will Trump’s indictment help him get the nomination? 19:07 Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive begins 25:55 Dissecting Timothy Snyder’s Ukraine analysis 36:01 Looks like Ukraine blew up Nord Stream 41:47 Tucker’s new Twitter show 49:22 Parrot Room preview: Bob draws lesson from PGA’s merger with Saudi’s LIV; affirmative action set to fall; Apple’s new goggles; Taylor Swift; food stamps and the homeless; why Gen-Zers are more likely to be non-binary; Cracker Barrel goes woke; Chinese spy situation in Cuba; Bob on the sci-fi show Silo.

Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Mickey Kaus (kausfiles, The End of Equality). Recorded June 09, 2023.

Comments on BhTV: http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/66298 Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods