Explore every episode of the podcast RBC's Markets in Motion

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion with Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy) and Amy Wu Silverman (Derivatives Strategist) on their latest views on the US equity market outlook and what they’ve been hearing from investors.

The big things you need to know: First, we review our basic framework for thinking about drawdowns in US equities, a topic that’s been coming up in client meetings over the past few weeks, as investor uncertainty regarding the economy has increased. Second, we have refreshed the math behind our YE 2025 bear case of 5,775, specifically our valuation/EPS stress test. Third, we run through our latest updates on the vibes breakdown in the US, where investor sentiment has plunged to crisis lows on one key metric. Fourth, some of our work suggests opportunity is opening up in Small Caps, though we think it’s too early to go overweight.

The big things you need to know: First, we found more evidence of weakening investor and consumer vibes in last week’s data updates, while getting a mostly positive data point on corporate vibes, and a flattening in political vibes. Second, the rotation of funds flows from US equities to bonds and European equities strengthened last week.

The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, and EPFR funds flows.

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the earnings backdrop has softened a bit on the stats for the broader US equity market, and has also justified the rotation in performance leadership that has been seen. Second, company commentary in last week’s earnings calls highlighted the uncertain optimism that is driving US equity market performance at the moment. Third, weakness in investor sentiment and a miss on consumer sentiment stand out in our high frequency updates last week. We continue to closely monitor the vibes whose anticipated strength has been an important part of the bullish thesis on the US equity market for 2025.

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.

The big things you need to know: First, the initial batch of 4Q24 earnings call commentary, which is mostly from Financials, highlights the optimism and uncertainty that are both embedded in the current outlook for stocks. Second, investor sentiment on the AAII survey continued to slip last week despite stabilization in the S&P 500 itself. Third, we continue to see some signs of mild rotation affecting US equity funds flows where we continue to see a loss of momentum. At the same time, we are seeing improvement in flows to bond funds, global equity funds, and several categories of non-US equity funds.

The big things you need to know: First, we review our thoughts on last Friday's jobs report and reaction in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Second, with 4Q24 reporting season getting underway, we review what we’re listening for in S&P 500 company earnings calls. Third, we run through updates on other high frequency indicators, including a new chart comparing market cap and net income concentration for the biggest names in the S&P 500.

The big things you need to know: Today in the podcast, an update on our S&P 500 sector outlook for 2025, and the results of the quarterly RBC analyst survey that we just updated in late December. Three big things you need to know: First, globally – taking into account the views of our analysts in all of our coverage regions -- our analysts tilt constructive on performance, valuations and demand, but have more mixed/neutral views on the US and non-US political backdrops. Second, our work on global equity funds flows highlights how US, growth-oriented sector, and most cyclical sector flows faded in the final weeks of 2024, while Western Europe and defensive sector flows improved marginally. Third, within the US we have upgraded Utilities to overweight and, to offset the move, have downgraded Energy to market weight. The views of our US analyst teams as captured by the survey results really drove these changes.

The big things you need to know: First, modest downward revisions have returned to bottom-up consensus S&P 500 EPS forecasts. Second, frothy US equity market sentiment has been a problem for the US equity market, but our work suggests that many investors have become cognizant of this problem and that it is starting to self-correct. Third, outside of the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500, a number of our valuation indicators have started to contract. Fourth, US equity funds flows deteriorated as 2024 came to an end.

The format of this special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024. We hope you enjoy the discussion and wish all of our regular listeners a very happy New Year.

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.

Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view.

The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weight.

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call.

The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 12 month view but also makes the case for a near-term pullback. Third, we don’t see much room for further P/E expansion but our valuation work still helps us see how stocks can move higher next year. Fourth, US equities may soon lose their appeal relative to bonds. Fifth, the US economy is at an important crossroad from a stock market perspective. And sixth, the political backdrop presents both tailwinds and possible headwinds for stocks.

Three big things you need to know: First, over the past week we’ve become increasingly convinced that a 5-10% pullback in the S&P 500 may have already started. Second, post-election company commentary has been heavily weighted to tariffs, a part of the Trump agenda that has concerned many equity investors. Third, other things that jump out from our high frequency indicators include Financials valuations that remain slightly attractive vs. the broader market.

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season is winding down with a disappointing feel to us on the stats, though it’s admittedly not driving price action right now. Second, in our transcript reading, a mixed macro and consumer remained in focus, as companies began to highlight key policy issues they are watching post election. Third, positioning in US equity futures, for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, looks stretched. Valuations have some room to run, but not a ton.

Today in the podcast, we run through three things in focus in our conversations following the US election.  First, we review the tailwinds for US equities that we’ve been highlighting from a Trump win, along with some of the headwinds to watch out for. Second, we highlight why we think Small Caps have at least a little bit more room to run and what we’re watching to help us know when it’s time to fade the trade. Third, we review our thoughts on the old economy, value-oriented sectors that did well on Wednesday.

We’ve recorded this on the day of the US Presidential Election, and that’s what we're focusing on today.

There are 7 big things you need to know: They focus on the set-up, the historical playbook, bottom-up policy implications per our analyst survey, our thoughts on positioning trades, one tailwind that will manifest regardless of what happens, tail risks, and our rundown of what we’ll be watching on election night and possibly the days beyond.

Three big things you need to know: First, the early S&P 500 stats are now pointing to a mildly disappointing 3Q24 reporting season so far. Second, a mixed backdrop, the need to wait a bit longer for interest rate relief, and the need to get through the election were key themes in last week’s earnings calls. Third, the US election has been in focus in our recent meetings with US-based long-only investors, who we encourage to be ready for all outcomes.

Three big things you need to know today: First, the early earnings stats are mixed for the broader market but promising for the rotation trade. Second, company commentary continues to suggest the plumbing of the economy is in good shape, with a few clogs. Third, our examination of index, sector and industry performance and trends in polling and betting market averages suggest to us that several traditional Trump trades (specifically, Small Caps, Energy, Financials) have remained intact.

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve done some housekeeping on our S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025, resulting in very modest changes. Second, we highlight the two things we’re paying the most attention to in reporting season – specifically, qualitative color from companies on hot macro topics and whether mega cap Growth can maintain its earnings dominance. Third, we highlight what else jumps out from our high frequency indicators on sentiment and the US election.

Two big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are generally constructive on performance, valuations and interest rates, with Materials most in favor and Consumer Staples most out of favor across all of the questions we asked. Second, within the US we are reiterating our overweights on Financials and Materials, upgrading Health Care to overweight, and downgrading Utilities to market weight. Energy remains a tactical overweight but goes on downgrade watch.

The big thing you need to know: Small Caps got a boost from the better-than-expected jobs report on Friday, reinforcing our belief that a return of economic tailwinds is the catalyst they need to take valuation and positioning to the next level.

Three big things you need to know: First, our survey results, which are bottom-up in nature and driven by domestic policy views, imply that the event is relevant to US equity markets, but perhaps less so than some market participants may believe. For our US analysts, a Republican sweep was seen as the most bullish outcome, while a Democratic sweep was seen as the most bearish outcome, but the key thing to note is that the tilts were extremely mild. Second, some of the traditional Trump trades continue to emerge in policy assessments and sector views. Among our US analysts, Energy and Financials had some of the most bullish tilts in a Republican sweep scenario, and some of the most bearish tilts in a Democratic sweep scenario. Third, in terms of our own broader market call, we’ve viewed the elections as creating near-term uncertainty in the US equity market and the potential for some short-term choppiness, but the survey results add to our growing belief that the thing that may matter most for US equities (for 2024) is getting past the event so companies and investors know what they are dealing with.

Two big things you need to know: First, valuations continue to look full for 2024 on the S&P 500, but our model argues for upside in 2025. Second, there’s a lot of little stuff to talk about right now. We run a few of the key updates on our high frequency indicators including those on the rotation trade, small caps, and the election.

Two big things you need to know: First, a few things (besides renewed optimism over a 50 bps cut) went right for Small Caps last week. Second, we highlight our current, top-down US equity market read throughs from the domestic policy platforms of the Harris and Trump campaigns. The longer-term signal their platforms are sending is more interesting to us than the noise around any shorter-term policy related sector trades.

Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded September 9th, 2024. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.

Three big things you need to know:

First, Friday’s jobs report added to investors’ uncertainty regarding the labor market, but the data point that concerned us from last week was the spike in Tech layoffs in the Challenger report.

Second, election uncertainty has persisted with policy getting greater attention from both sides. We run through our US equity market read throughs from Trump’s economic speech last week.

Third, in our discussion of other updates from our high frequency indicators, we review what we’re watching in terms of potential near-term downside levels for the S&P 500, sentiment, and the Semis trade.

If you’d like to hear more, here’s another 6 minutes. Now, let’s jump into the details.

Starting with Takeaway #1: Employment Uncertainty Has Grown After Friday’s Jobs Report, But The Spike In Tech Layoffs In The Challenger Report Spooked Us The Most Regarding Stocks

• RBC’s economics team noted that while the report “doesn’t point to a sharp contraction in the labor market, it also gave no indications that the broader cooling trend – which is not welcomed by the Federal Reserve – has in any way run its course.”  From our seat in US equity strategy, we generally agree with the idea that the jobs report is still consistent with cooling and normalization as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession.
• That being said, we were a little spooked by some of the details in the Challenger layoff report that came out earlier in the week. The overall level of layoffs moved up in August, but remained well below the spikes associated with past recessions, and was even a bit below the moves higher seen in 2023-2024 and 2015.
• What caught our attention was the spike in layoffs for Technology companies which wasn’t as bad as those seen in late 2022 and early 2023, but otherwise rivals some of the worst spikes this industry has seen over time. This primarily worries us in regards to the Tech sector itself and the broader market by way of the rotation trade. Though layoff announcements moved up slightly in a few other industries, those were generally mild relative to history.

Moving on to Takeaway #2: Election Uncertainty Persists, With Policy Getting Greater Attention

• We continue to see the US election as a key challenge that the US equity market will need to work through in coming months, due to the uncertainty that the event has injected into the outlook. We do usually see a pullback in the S&P 500 in September and October of Presidential election years, with a rebound afterwards.
• Thinking about today specifically, a number of companies referred to this idea that the election has injected some uncertainty into the outlook in their recent earnings calls.
• Meanwhile, Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in the PredictIt betting market and RCP polling average, but the race still looks quite close on these data sets, as well as in the polling for the swing states.
• We do believe the stock market has been paying attention to the event given the alignment we’ve continued to see between S&P 500 performance and expectations that Trump will win in betting markets.
• One of the primary things the stock market cares about regarding the election is domestic policy, and investors have been getting new information on the policy leanings of both Harris and Trump over the past few weeks. In our latest report, we’ve recapped our early thoughts on the stock market read throughs of Trump’s domestic policy agenda as described in his speech to the Economic Club of New York last week. We think it’s premature to put on any significant sector or industry trades...

Two big things you need to know: First, as we return from the Labor Day holiday weekend in the US, we find that major challenges for US equities are still lurking. We remain confident in our 5,700 YE 2024 S&P 500 price target, but acknowledge the challenges that must be worked through. Second, other updates from our high frequency indicators keep us in the camp that believes the US economy is slowing but isn’t on the cusp of an outright downturn. Overall, we continue to take comfort in earnings and economic data.

The big things you need to know: First, 2Q24 earnings season is ending up solid. With most reports in, we highlight a few of the most interesting charts in our deck on earnings right now. Second, other updates on our high frequency indicators were generally positive for US equities and mixed for the rotation trade. We end the summer of 2024 with increased conviction that August 5th was the low in the recent pullback, even if some choppiness seems likely to be there to greet us when we return in September, and feeling good about our 5,700 YE 2024 S&P 500 price target.

Three big things you need to know: First, last week’s price action relieved some pressures on the stock market, but didn’t solve its major problems. Second, earnings remain solid with no major deterioration in corporate tone. Third, we’d be more selective with value-oriented defensive sectors going forward.

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season has been fine so far, and what we’ve read has kept us in the “tired goldilocks” camp. Second, we run through the latest updates for the indicators we’re monitoring in the rotation trade. We are mindful of headfakes, but think the trade may still have some room to run in the short term. We also still think whether a durable multi-year leadership transition is underway remains to be seen. Third, individual investor sentiment took a big hit last week per the AAII survey, while US equity flows have remained strong, keeping us on guard for an end to the current pullback.

Four big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has gotten as extreme as it did last August and this past March. Second, earnings season is off to a solid start, but we are still looking for some additional evidence in support of the idea that we’re seeing a durable leadership shift rather than a short-term rotation trade. Third, we’ve been monitoring our other high frequency indicators for clues on the rotation trade. Some suggest the rotation trade has room to run but others are less clear. Fourth, we highlight what we’re watching in the equity market regarding the US election and our initial thoughts on how Biden’s decision to withdraw may impact US equities.

Two big things you need to know: First, we see 2Q24 reporting season as a key test for the rotation trade that attempted to start up again last week. Second, we remain worried about a pullback in the S&P 500 given the latest developments on our sentiment and positioning work, but timing seems a bit more complicated due to last week’s CPI print and surge in optimism on Fed cuts.

Three big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,700 from 5,300, which we would characterize as a nervous raise. Second, we think the risks of a short-term pullback in the S&P 500 are growing, similar to what occurred in April. Third, on positioning, we think it will be tough for the US equity market to see a sustainable leadership transition away from mega cap Growth until we are through the economic soft patch.

Three big things you need to know: First, the Duke CFO survey highlights how C-Suite confidence has remained steady, with monetary policy and automation in focus. Second, our new valuation stress test suggests the S&P 500 has been baking in optimistic views on inflation, interest rates, and the Fed. Third, recent funds flow trends point to a lingering desire for a shift in market leadership.

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC’s Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week’s episode while Lori is out.

Three big things you need to know: First, while gold prices have had a strong rally this year, having hit record highs last month, we remain cautious. We think that gold is overvalued from the perspective of a number of key macro drivers and that there are some unrealized vulnerabilities to the pillars of gold’s rally. While we are cautious, it’s more because we do not think gold should be at such high levels just yet. Second, while May and June have seen a less weak and more rangebound trend for gold-backed ETPs, we are not convinced that investors are beginning to follow through just yet. Investors sold their gold holdings as prices rallied, and we’ve yet to see a sustained return to buying. Third, central bank demand has been a key pillar to the gold rally but as China’s pause in purchasing showed, there are vulnerabilities. To be clear, we still think that central bank demand will continue to be strong, but there are reasons to be cautious on the volume at record prices and after such a sustained period of strength.

Three big things you need to know: First, the continued outperformance of mega cap Growth stocks has been logical, but still somewhat jarring to us. Second, Small Caps broke to clear new lows relative to Large Caps last week as risks piled up including a Fed that seems inclined to cut just once this year. We’d stay on the sidelines with Small Caps for now. Third, investor sentiment continues to concern us, and we’ve added consumer sentiment to our list of worries for the stock market following the Michigan survey miss. One offset is that the US may benefit from safe-haven seeking if flows to European equity funds deteriorate.

Special Edition: This is a special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded on June 4th, 2024, from the RBC Capital Markets 2024 Global Energy, Power & Infrastructure Conference (EPIC). Lori is joined by two of her road warrior colleagues, Ben Fisher (Midwest Equity Sales, specializes in macro) and Amy Wu Silverman (RBC’s Equity Derivatives Strategist). The format this time is a bit different from the typical Markets in Motion podcast. Ben moderates a discussion with Lori and Amy about the big things you need to know from their recent conversations on the outlook for equities. Topics include stock market concentration and the potential catalysts for leadership rotation, the influence of retail trading, and views on the Energy and Utilities sectors.

Two big things you need to know: First, we highlight how and why old leadership in the US equity market has returned with a vengeance and run through our latest thoughts on what might get the rotation trade going again. Second, several of the gauges of investor sentiment and equity market risk that we track are keeping us neutral on stocks through year-end for now, and tactically cautious.

The big things you need to know: First, Small Caps are retesting their relative low vs. Large Caps once again, as Fed rate cut optimism has faded once again. We remain neutral Small vs. Large for now. Second, investor sentiment has almost returned to the highs in place to start the year (as well as the summer of 2023) on the AAII survey, reinforcing our neutral stance on the broader US equity market for now. Third, our S&P 500 valuation model continues to suggest that the broader US equity market is fairly valued, with some modest downside risk if current inflation, interest rate, and Fed assumptions end up being too rosy. For a material move higher in the market by year-end to be justified on the math, we think investors will need to start focusing on the outlook for 2025, where visibility still seems a bit limited.

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, Tech has bounced back on performance and earnings revisions but valuations remain a problem. Second, valuations more broadly have started to look less appealing. Third, other updates in our high frequency indicators highlight how pendulums have swung on a few different fronts (namely investor sentiment, election stats, and funds flows).

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season has ended up looking just fine on the stats, with one twist at the end. Second, we update our rundown of key themes on earnings calls. Third, net bulls on the AAII survey bounced back last week as 10-year yields decoupled from their 2023 spike, hopes for Fed cuts returned, and flows to US equity funds improved.

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, after a weak start to 1Q24 reporting season, it has settled into a groove on the stats. Second, we review our thoughts on key themes on company earnings calls so far. Third, we highlight what’s jumping out on our high frequency indicators. This includes our main sentiment indicator (which we still think hasn’t fallen enough) and our rundown of the key headwinds and tailwinds for Small Caps (which both weakened last week).

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve just completed our quarterly survey of RBC’s equity analysts around the globe and found that optimism on performance persists for most sectors and coverage regions, despite the challenges associated with higher interest rates. Second, with a fresh set of survey results in hand we are making three changes to our sector recommendations. Within the US (and S&P 500 specifically) we are upgrading Materials to overweight, downgrading Health Care to market weight, and downgrading REITs to underweight.

The big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has taken a bit of a hit, but it’s too early to say the pullback is over. Second, while we continue to expect the pullback to bottom out in the 5-10% range vs. recent highs, we’ve taken a look at S&P 500 performance around recent wars to gauge potential downside risks if we are wrong in that assumption. Third, it’s been a rough start to 1Q reporting season as companies beating consensus EPS forecasts have been underperforming significantly in terms of immediate price performance. Fourth, we’ve been surprised to see Large Cap Growth underperforming given the recent move up in 10-year yields, and run through the reasons (besides crowding and overvaluation) that we think this is happening.

The big things you need to know: First, geopolitical concerns are spiking at a time when stocks already seemed due for a pullback. Second, the rotation trade has just gotten a lot more complicated. Third, companies have been keeping expectations low on earnings. Fourth, our valuation modeling suggests some modest downside risk to the stock market if we don’t get cuts, and a more significant hit if we get more hikes. Fifth, Small Caps may be stuck in a holding pattern for a while. Sixth, Biden has closed the gap with Trump in betting markets. Seventh, US equity flows have fizzled.

Two big things you need to know: First, the Energy sector still looks attractive to us, even after its big move in March, and we remain overweight. Second, Trump has lost some momentum in swing state polling, challenging a key assumption of many non-US investors.

Three big things you need to know today: First, we lift our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,300 (from 5,150). The most constructive model in our tool kit indicates upside to ~5,400, which represents our bull case if our base case is too conservative. Second, we continue to see some conflicting cross currents for stocks. Among the five models that we use, our economic, valuation, and cross-asset work are sending the most constructive signals, while our sentiment and politics work are less enthusiastic. Third, we lift our 2024 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $237 (from $234), which remains slightly below the bottom-up consensus.

Two big things you need to know today: First, our work on the R2000 relative to the S&P 600 (sparked by Small Cap PM concerns about low quality) adds to our belief that the US came close to recession in 2022. Second, CFTC buyside positioning in US equity futures rebounded last week ahead of the Fed, highlighting increased risk of a melt-up in the broader US equity market.

Three big things you need to know: First, Energy has been a top S&P 500 sector since January. We like its attractive valuations, improving funds flows, and role as an inflation hedge in our overweights. Second, Large Caps are starting to look a little better than Small Caps on a few of the earnings-related metrics that we track, suggesting to us that Small Caps’ sluggish performance of late isn’t all about Fed and inflation fears. Third, sentiment continued to slip on one of our main sentiment models from elevated levels.