Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"?

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords.

We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK's rental market and the "construction crisis" in Scotland .

In this episode, you will learn:

• The "Golden Quarter" Explained: Why the period leading up to the full implementation of the Renters' Rights Act in May 2026 is creating a unique buying window for professional investors .

   

• Trumpomics & The Global Economy: How a 4.3% US GDP growth, driven by AI investment and tariffs, is rippling through to the UK economy and tech investment .

   

• UK Market Reality Check: A look at the 2025 stats, including 1.7 million listings, rising fall-throughs, and why Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) is down despite GDP growth .

   

• The "Rachel" Case Study: A hypothetical look at why high-earning, "accidental" landlords may be forced to exit the market due to new possession grounds and regulatory fatigue .

   

• The 5 Ingredients of the Golden Quarter: Understanding how FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), MEES regulations, and regulatory risk are reshaping return expectations .

   

Key Quote:

"Be greedy only when others are fearful." — Adam Lawrence (quoting Warren Buffett) on the mindset for professional investors in 2026 .

Timestamps:

• 00:00 – Market Forecast & The 22% Price Surge

   

• 02:22 – Trumpomics: US GDP & Trade Wars

   

• 11:15 – UK Property Market Review: 2025 Statistics

   

• 24:36 – The Scottish Housing Crisis

   

• 36:03 – Deep Dive: What is "The Golden Quarter"?

   

• 52:40 – The 5 Ingredients Driving the Landlord Exodus

   

Tune in to understand why the amateur exodus might be your professional opportunity.

Buy workshop tickets: www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026.

From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game.

Key Topics Discussed:

• The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided.

• The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%.

• Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing.

• Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%.

• Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs.

• The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs.

Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range.

Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

*****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX*****

This AI-Generated episode was output from Google's NotebookLM, based on a single source - an influential and seriously comprehensive report about social housing that was recently published. The source paper is here:

https://homesforpeopleweneed.co.uk/

And I very much recommend you read it. However, it is an 81-page PDF so I wanted to share this and see if people found it useful. A deep-dive style summary, AI produced, limited work from the "chef" here - and hopefully it will spark some interesting debate and conversation. Please let me know what you think!

This week - the macro includes Liz the Lettuce alongside some less bearish figures for the markets than the weak summer.

I also go back to a piece of primary research I did in July this year regarding real house prices, multiples and earnings - and rents. The conclusions are very surprising!

This week Dr Michael Burry gets a shoutout, as I look at why he placed such a big bet on the markets falling earlier this year.

I ask what we are missing when it comes to the pieces of the jigsaw in the UK housing market and what we can learn from the past as I continue to speculate on what's likely to happen in the near future.

This week covers the upcoming Bank of England meeting and takes apart not two but three important recent reports, as well as the macro roundup.

What's coming? I finish with some real-time conclusions about where we are in the cycle right now.

Keep Calm......

This week's supplement goes right into the details around the Bank of England's most recent Monetary Policy Report and the decision that the Bank faces - and shares some fascinating stats about the true makeup of the UK buy to let market.

This week I dive into the macro markers for a stalling UK economy - get stuck in to the problems facing us at the top level - attempt some forecasts for the remaining months of the year and and top of all of that - discuss the energy performance certificate and the theoretical changes coming our way as a sector.

This week looks at the inflation roundup and the ever evolving scenario, and gets into some practical advice as to what to do in these times.

1. UK Retail sales up 4.2 per cent in nominal terms, down nearly 5 per cent after inflation adjustments

2. UK unemployment up to 4 per cent, a surprise jump from 3.8 per cent compared to forecasts - good for rates

3. Average earnings up 7.3 per cent annualised using the last 3 months as the base - bad for rates as seen to be driving inflation

4. RICS house price balance -46 per cent (so of those surveyed, 73 per cent reported a downwards market in pricing terms, 27 per cent reported sideways or upwards) - back to the negatives of January and February, but at what's normally a good time of year to sell - this will filter through to Q3/Q4s figures. Tough time to be a sales agent

5. GDP down 0.4 per cent for the year - avoided the technical recession (remember, two quarters in a row of negative growth) - but the effect is similar - teetering on the brink of abject sideways movement - weak as water

6. In the Bank of England's own words this week: "The global economic outlook is highly uncertain, and the risk environment is challenging". Pope also catholic in shocking revelation……

7. Homeowner mortgage payments aren't looking as if they will increase as much as you would be led to believe if you trusted the mainstream media for your economics news

8. UK banks still look solid and very resilient

9. UK companies don't have as much debt maturing in the next 12-18 months as in previous cycles - they are stronger in cash terms, just as households are

10. Nonbank financial institutions are not as strong or resilient and it is an international task of some magnitude to fix this problem (nonbank FIs would include insurance firms, venture capitalists, currency exchanges, some microloan organisations, and pawn shops)

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's cooking?

The deep dive looks at a whole plethora of reports released in the past week about the sad state of our housing starts in the UK at this time.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The labour market numbers - (un)employment and inactivity

Growth - a bit

The MHCLG numbers on temporary accommodation - improving

The deep dive gets into the state of the UK housing starts situation, from multiple different sources and angles. Spoiler alert - it is ugly! I also go into detail about some of the recent Bank of England speeches regarding the future path of the interest rate.

Book workshop tickets: https://bit.ly/pbw9 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at a long and strong article about the mess at the Bank of England over Quantitative Tightening, and "how to fix the Black Hole". 

We also have, in the Macro section:

The construction PMIs for September - slightly less ugly

The Halifax House Price Index 

The RICS Residential Market Report

The deep dive gets into the details on Government funds and a sensible solution for saving tens of billions as we approach another miserable budget. THE ANSWER IS THERE, RACHEL - YOU JUST NEED TO READ IT AND GET IT DONE! 

Book workshop tickets: https://bit.ly/pbw9 

In this episode, we talk about the latest Sunday Supplement on the necessity of evolution as an investor in order to stay ahead of the game.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley (Couldn't make it this week)

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we debrief the latest from the Bank of England from Adam Lawrence's Sunday Supplement and also the latest auction results.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we take a look at what to do with Mortgage Rates rising and the threat of recession.  We also will be looking at property investor news magazine...

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we delve into the latest supplement from Adam Lawrence. Are we starting to see the first green shoots in the market? Let's find out...

Your Expert Hosts: 🎙️ Jay Howard 🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts: 👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley 👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel 🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast 🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property 🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below 🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we catch up with not one but two supplements on Alternative investment and gaining an advantage.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast.

We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we look at mortgages, rates and the latest from the Bank of England. 

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

👨‍🏫 Helen Chorley

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast.

We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

In this episode, we have 2 award winners and we take a look at some of the property deals that helped them get there.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Our Award Winning Guests:

⭐ Saif Derzi

⭐ Elizabeth Warburton

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Zoopla about Housebuilding Viability and another from the Resolution Foundation regarding the difference 300k/homes/year would make.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The actual PMIs for September - ugly

The Nationwide House Price Index with a REAL price update

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - healthy enough

The gilts and swaps markets - of course

The deep dive gets into the housing landscape situation and the scale of the challenge facing Steve Reed - and provides some objective data overall that will probably surprise you quite a lot……alongside a data blast roundup of some insightful figures released this week.

In this episode, we talk banks, rates and survival in property with your usual suspects. Also joining us on this episode is Ross Harper.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we delve into the uncertainty, chaos and just how many Prime Ministers will we end up with this year?

To make sense of it all we have...

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we talk about property, finance, economy - is there any left?

To help take you through the uncertainty we have...

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we are talking INFLATION.  Where is it going and does it matter?

We have the usual suspects joining us:

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence

Your Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithad...

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even more in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySist...

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, we look at how to get true below market value and yields of 20% plus and of course our usual roundup of all things property, finance and economy.

Your Expert Hosts:

🎙️ Jay Howard

🎙️ Adam Lawrence Y

our Resident Property Experts:

👩‍🏫 Helen Chorley

👨‍🏫 Piotr Rusinek

Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix!

Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel

🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithad...

Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast

🟣 https://propenomix.com/

Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property

🔴 https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySist...

Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below

🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/

#Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

In this episode, find out what happened at this years HMO awards and will Adam even make his own show?

Your Expert Hosts: Jay Howard Adam Lawrence Your Resident Property Experts: Helen Chorley Piotr Rusinek Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix! Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel  https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast  https://propenomix.com/ Subscribe to the Property Sisters Channel for even in property  https://www.youtube.com/@PropertySistersUK/ Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below  https://partners-property.com/blog/   #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Shelter, and another from the JRF - and commemorates 3 years post-lettuce, as well.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Flash PMIs - not great

The Rightmove House Price and Zoopla Rents Indices

The ONS on Housing Purchase Affordability

The gilts and swaps markets - of course

The deep dive tries to assess credibility of Shelter's recent research on social homes as they continue to pressure the Chancellor. The JRF claim they have better figures than the ONS. Then, we consign the lettuce to the history books one more time……

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive is DEEP - firstly into recent UK Finance Data publications, rent affordability and then a bombshell of a report dropped by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this week. 

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Halifax House Price Index

The RICS residential market report

No-wth - that's growth, when there is none

The gilts and swaps markets - of course - a quieter week with a kick

The deep dive gets into the JRF report titled - Rebalancing the housing market through tax reform. It isn't one for those with weak stomachs. It does, however, contain a number of leaps of faith that are a bridge too far in my view - and as usual I don't mince words

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive had no choice - it goes to the heart of Raynergate and a new housing secretary

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Nationwide House Price Index

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report

The final PMIs for August - great news (selectively)

The gilts and swaps markets - of course - quite the week

The deep dive gets into the actual factual detail of the Rayner case and departure - which far too many seemed to avoid, suggesting this is a matter of opinion - it isn't, the legislation is clear. However it is more about the aftermath and whether, indeed, she'll be back.

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at more proposed taxes and the architect of some of these ideas…..

We also have, in the Macro section:

Right-to-Buy figures for 2024/25

The UK Household Costs Index

The Rightmove Asking Price Index

The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch

The deep dive goes full campanologist this week and takes a close look at Torsten Bell, MP, and some of his dimmer and brighter ideas for tax reform. We really are going to see at least one of them enacted in late Autumn.

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at property taxes, CGT removal on primary residences, and the likes

We also have, in the Macro section:

Inflation once more gripping the nation

The flash PMIs

The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report

The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch

The deep dive gets into the Property Tax "reforms" and multiple leaks from the Treasury this week as they feel their way towards the budget, reading the braille as usual…….

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time Market - what's going on?

The deep dive looks at the Bank of England's Quantitative Tightening strategy

We also have, in the Macro section:

Unemployment and the labour market

Growth - yes, growth!

The RICS residential market report

The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch

The deep dive talks Bank of England money burning strategies - quite literally - and just how many tens of billions have been wasted that just haven't needed to be in recent years. Will the bonfire continue when we can afford it the least? Genuinely the biggest scandal never talked about

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight 

Episode Summary:

In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK's homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy.

As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK's housing failure. We then pivot to the global stage to analyze how US economic policy could dictate your mortgage rates, before landing on the ultimate actionable guide: The 2026 Property Playbook.

What You Will Learn in This Episode:

1. The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis: A System at Breaking Point The figures are sobering. The cost of temporary accommodation and the management of homelessness has ballooned to an estimated £2.8 billion, a burden that is breaking local council budgets and failing the most vulnerable in society. But beyond the headlines, what are the structural failures driving this?

• The Supply Deficit: Why the current planning system and development incentives are failing to produce the social housing stock we actually need.

• The "Homes for Christmas" Reality: We discuss the human cost of the crisis during the holidays and the initiatives trying to bridge the gap.

• The Landlord's Role: With the private rental sector (PRS) under pressure from regulation and tax changes, are private landlords being pushed out exactly when they are needed most to help house the nation? Adam breaks down the relationship between government policy and the shrinking supply of rental homes.

2. Trumpnomics: The Global Macro Effect on UK Property Economics does not happen in a vacuum. With the specter (or reality) of Donald Trump's economic policies - "Trumpnomics" - returning to the fore, UK investors need to pay attention. The US economy is the engine of the world, and its decisions on tariffs, trade protectionism, and debt drive global bond yields.

• Inflation & Interest Rates: If Trumpnomics fuels US inflation through aggressive fiscal stimulus and tariffs, how long before that inflationary pressure crosses the Atlantic? We analyze the correlation between US Treasuries and UK Gilts - and what that means for your mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026.

• Trade Wars & Materials: How protectionist policies could impact the cost of construction materials and the wider UK economy.

• Currency Fluctuations: What a stronger dollar means for international investment into UK bricks and mortar.

3. The 2026 Property Playbook: Strategy for the Medium Term Real estate is a long game, but the next 18 to 24 months are critical. Adam lays out the 2026 Property Playbook, a strategic roadmap for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the next market cycle.

• Survive then Thrive: Navigating the tail end of the high-interest rate environment to ensure cash flow remains healthy.

• The 2026 Opportunity: Why 2026 is flagged as a key year for capital growth. We look at the historical property cycles and the indicators suggesting a supply-crunch-driven boom in specific regions.

• Asset Selection: Which property types will outperform? A look at why functional residential stock, HMOs in non-Article 4 areas, and specific commercial-to-residential conversions might be the winners of the next cycle.

• The Regulatory Landscape: Preparing your portfolio now for the EPC changes and renters' reform legislation that will be fully bedded in by 2026.

Why This Matters Now: The property market is currently full of mixed signals. Media headlines scream crash one day and boom the next. By understanding the Propenomix - the intersection of property and economics - you can filter out the noise. Whether you are a developer looking to understand the macro headwinds, a landlord concerned about the rental crisis, or an investor planning your next acquisition, this episode provides the data-driven clarity you need.

It is not just about buying houses; it is about understanding the world in which those houses exist. From the streets of Britain where the homelessness crisis plays out, to the policy rooms of Washington D.C., everything is connected.

Join the Conversation: Are you seeing the impact of the homelessness crisis in your local area? How are you preparing your portfolio for 2026? Let us know in the comments or reach out via LinkedIn.

Connect with Adam Lawrence & Propenomix:

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Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Property investment carries risks, and you should always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time Market - how's it looking?

The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting and a historic moment

We also have, in the Macro section:

The final PMIs for July

Halifax's house price index amidst little fuss

The real time snapshot of how the economy is really working

The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch

The deep dive gets right into the Bank of England Monetary Policy meeting and the full report that was delivered, and the 0.25% rate cut that emerged - if that's all you took away from it, you missed the meat of the situation for sure - don't worry, it is all here. 

Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight