Explore every episode of the podcast Probability

Join host Felix Mercer as he reveals why humans misunderstand probability—our closest tool for predicting the future. Explore fierce mathematical debates where experts disagree on "likely," then learn to harness probability for better daily decisions. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

Felix Mercer explores how probabilistic thinking transforms decision-making by replacing binary choices with nuanced likelihood assessments. Drawing on research in clinical reasoning, cognitive bias, and decision science, he demonstrates why thinking in bets leads to better long-term outcomes across careers, relationships, and high-stakes choices. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

Host Felix Mercer explores the century-long war between frequentist and Bayesian probability frameworks — two mathematical philosophies that can't agree on what "70% likely" means. Through medical diagnoses and real-world decisions, discover why your understanding of probability shapes everything from clinical trials to career choices, and why not knowing which framework you're using is dangerous. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.

Felix Mercer explores why humans fail at probability, from the 1913 Monte Carlo roulette disaster to the birthday problem and Monty Hall paradox. Learn how our pattern-seeking brains struggle with statistics and discover frameworks for better decision-making under uncertainty. Loved this episode? Discover more original shows from the Quiet Please Network at QuietPlease.ai, explore our curated favorites here amzn.to/42YoQGI, and catch just a slice of our AI hosts in action on Instagram at instagram.com/claredelish and YouTube at youtube.com/@DIYHOMEGARDENTV This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.