Explore every episode of the podcast One Decision

#OpenAI #AI #ArtificialIntelligence Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision OpenAI says it will burn $280 billion by 2030. Sebastian Mallaby gives it a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. So what happens when the world's most prominent AI lab goes bust — and does the US government step in? Sebastian Mallaby — Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Infinity Machine, a biography of DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis — joins Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine. They discuss the financial fragility of the leading AI labs, why open-weight AI models are too dangerous to permit, how a US-China non-proliferation deal for AI might work, and what a war game about nuclear submarines revealed about where this is all heading. In this episode: (00:00) AI Race Between US and China (02:08) Sebastian Mallaby on AI Safety (02:51) Is AI a Blessing or Curse? (04:03) Who to Trust on AI Safety (05:35) Demis Hassabis and AI Regulation (08:23) Cold War Lessons for AI Safety (11:42) Trump Administration AI Policy (14:59) Private AI Safety Monitoring (20:57) Open Weight AI Models Debate (23:00) Does AI Replicate Consciousness? (33:24) Is AI Investment a Bubble? (45:39) AI War Game Nuclear Submarine Scenario (54:37) The One Decision Open Weight AI Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

#Germany #Japan #Rearmament Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision For more than half a century, the two main Axis powers of WWII lived under strict limits on their militaries. Now both are rearming fast — driven by the threat of Russia in Europe and China in the Pacific, and by growing doubts about whether the US under Trump can still be relied upon. Germany is pouring money into defense and rebuilding its arms industry. Japan has created a new intelligence service, is expanding its Self-Defense Forces, and is debating whether to revise Article 9 of its pacifist constitution. Historian and journalist Ian Buruma — author of Stay Alive: Berlin 1939–1945 — joins former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann to explain how wartime guilt shaped both countries' foreign and defense policy for generations, and why that influence is now fading fast. Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision In this episode: (00:00) Intro (04:22) Sir Richard on ex-BND chief August Hanning (08:47) How Germany and Japan responded to WWII (13:11) Japan’s younger generation and Article 9 (22:11) Should Germany help fund Europe’s nuclear umbrella? (23:50) Could Japan go nuclear? (26:54) What is Article 9? (28:48) Japan’s new intelligence service and arms industry (32:55) The AfD, the firewall and German rearmament (36:34) A populist Europe and the end of Pax Americana (41:29) How the AfD weaponizes German history (45:06) The one decision to watch Join Sir Richard Dearlove and his co-hosts as they engage with leading figures in geopolitics, intelligence, and global affairs. They dissect the critical decisions behind the headlines, offering deep insights and expert analysis of the strategies that define international relations. From uncovering the implications of major geopolitical events to decoding the tactics of world leaders, One Decision is your gateway to understanding the complexities of global dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

War with Iran, record diesel prices, and a global bond sell-off: how much more can the world economy take? Mohamed El-Erian (Wharton, Allianz, former CEO of PIMCO) joins Sir Richard Dearlove (former head of MI6) and John Raine to explain what's driving the bond market sell-off, why the US is exporting instability to the UK, France, and Japan, and why AI is "80% asset, 20% liability." Plus: how PIMCO really navigated Lehman's collapse, and the one decision he's watching. In this episode: (00:00) Intro (03:07) Why this crisis is different (04:04) Permacrisis and "minilateralism" (05:46) What's driving the global bond sell-off (07:32) The hit to US households: mortgages, car loans, the K-shaped economy (10:10) "Our yields, your problem": UK, France and Japan (13:05) France, Mélenchon and Europe's leadership vacuum (17:59) AI: 80% asset, 20% liability (20:35) US-China AI Race (31:30) Did PIMCO predict Lehman Brothers collapse? (35:58) Who wins in today’s economy? (44:51) Can finance ministers fix what politicians can't? (46:32) How important are AI companies to the economy? Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Between cheap-to-produce drones and artificial intelligence, the future of warfare may already be here. Paul Scharre, former US Army Ranger and executive vice president of the Center for a New American Strategy, joins former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine to discuss how drones and AI are reshaping military conflict and militaries themselves. Scharre explains why cheap drones are beating expensive armies, how the cost asymmetry between offense and defense is reshaping the battlefield, and why the US may be losing its technological edge faster than it realizes. He also assesses Ukraine's drone revolution, the race between the US and China to adopt military AI, and why keeping humans in the loop may matter more than any weapon system. In this episode: (00:00) Cost Equation of Modern Warfare (02:39) Defining the Present State of Warfare (04:18) How Militaries Are Dealing with AI (06:24) Technology Reshaping US Military Education (09:11) Evolution of Drone Technology (14:45) Cost of Countermeasures (18:06) Likelihood of Protracted Warfare (20:38) Redefining Victory in Modern Warfare (22:20) Adversarial Distillation (25:15) Strategic Balance Between US and China (27:32) Culture of Superior Firepower (29:55) AI and the Ukraine War (33:06) How Drones Change Ground Combat (39:28) Outlook For Expensive Tech (43:00) Keeping Humans in the Loop (44:44) Drone Swarms (46:55) AI and Naval Warfare (48:52) Drones and Non-State Actors (54:32) One Decision: Xi-Trump Summit and AI (56:36) Takeaways and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel and the US may have extraordinary intelligence on Iran. But intelligence isn't the same as comprehension, according to nuclear physicist and 2015 Iran deal negotiator Ali Vaez. Vaez joins John Raine and Sir Richard Dearlove to break down what Iran's nuclear capabilities really look like after the 12-day war. Plus, how Iran's Supreme National Security Council stays united under duress, how the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains primacy over the regular army, and why sanctions now at "nine out of ten" still won't force collapse. Iran doesn't need to win this standoff. It just needs not to lose. In this episode: (00:00) Ali Vaez on wartime Iran (02:39) Is Iran's leadership a monolith or divided? (03:55) Power centers: the SNSC, the Basij, and the IRGC (10:09) The mystery of Mojtaba Khamenei (12:00) Economic and military pressure on Iran (15:00) A forever war? Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis (27:47) What does the Iranian public actually think? (32:33) Iran's nuclear program: what do we really know? (42:18) Israeli intelligence, diplomacy, and the Ahmadinejad theory (52:19) The decision only Donald Trump can make Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Debora Cahn, the writer behind The Diplomat, Homeland, The West Wing, and Grey's Anatomy, joins Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove to talk about writing political drama in an era when reality keeps outpacing fiction. Debora explains how "spy camp" research trips with real diplomats, spies, and generals shape her scripts, why she resists making her stories too close to current events, and what she learned about the strange double life of foreign service officers: the loneliness of constant relocation, the jockeying for a seat in the room, and the quiet patriotism that keeps them showing up. Sir Richard, a former head of MI6, adds his own view from the other side of the table, including a story about deliberately keeping a British ambassador out of the room in Washington. In this episode: 00:00 Cold Open 02:58 Russia Story Rewritten 04:11 Borgen Inspiration 06:15 Spy Camp Research 08:22 Diplomacy In The Dirt 09:35 Ambassadors Real And Fake 18:39 CIA And Embassy Dynamics 21:24 From West Wing To Diplomat 23:14 No Evil Characters 24:29 MI6 Reality Check 29:59 Demystifying Government Work 31:12 Female President Choice 33:51 Future Of Ambassadors Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Part Two of our two-part series marking the 25th anniversary of 9/11 reunites former leaders of the US and UK intelligence services, both of whom were in high office on September 11, 2001. Former deputy director of the CIA John McLaughlin joins former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann to give the insider’s perspective on the intelligence world’s response to the attacks. McLaughlin details what the CIA knew beforehand, the immediate aftermath inside CIA headquarters, and the rapid attribution to al-Qaeda. He also discusses the power of the US-UK "special relationship," the surge in CIA resources after 9/11, the Bush administration's push toward the Iraq War, the effects of the global war on terror on American civil liberties, and why the war in Ukraine is the single most important geopolitical issue today. In this episode: (00:00) Emotion is a Luxury in Intelligence (01:53) John McLaughlin Introduction (03:03) Pre-9/11 Threats (07:17) Why Was 9/11 A Surprise? (14:13) Considering the "What Ifs" (15:52) M16 Rushes to DC (22:46) CIA on 9/11 (25:12) Post-9/11 Intelligence Overhaul (34:16) Origins of the Iraq Focus (47:17) Legacy of 9/11 in America (57:42) One Decision: Importance of the Ukraine Conflict (01:03:00) Takeaways and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 1997, Peter Bergen found himself in the mountains of Afghanistan, face-to-face with al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. During the ensuing landmark interview, bin Laden foreshadowed the terrorist attacks of September 11. In Part One of our two-part series commemorating the 25th anniversary of 9/11, journalist and author Peter Bergen sits down with former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine to discuss the legacy of the 9/11 attacks, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bergen talks about why negotiating with Osama bin Laden would have been a nonstarter and why the attacks bin Laden orchestrated generated shock, not surprise, within government intelligence agencies. Bergen and the hosts also discuss decisions after the attacks that Dearlove witnessesed firsthand, the proper relationship between intelligence and policy, how the war on terror reshaped the US view of coalitions and allies, and how the conflict in Ukraine points to the future of warfare. In this episode: (00:00) Lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq Wars (03:23) Would Negotiating with Osama bin Laden Have Worked? (06:21) Feeling in US Immediately Post-9/11 (11:29) Origins of Iraq War (15:55) Policy and Intelligence (17:08) Imperial Power of the Presidency (21:16) Why Were There No Major Attacks After 9/11?  (25:13) Role of Coalitions and Allies (34:31) Legacy of Fighting Global War on Terror (41:10) Importance of Tribalism (46:54) Scale of Troop Presence and Outcome (50:41) Ukraine as Laboratory for Modern Warfare (54:38) One Decision: Why Trump Should Declare Victory in Iran (56:41) Takeaways and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It has been five years since the US withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, accepting defeat after a 20-year presence in the country. Was this ever a winnable war? War correspondent Jon Lee Anderson of The New Yorker walks former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine through the Taliban resurgence. Anderson discusses why it was a strategic error to not allow Hamid Karzai to actually govern, and how that blunder facilitated both the return of opium production and the Taliban comeback. He also talks about what happened to the Northern Alliance, the complexities of Afghan allegiances and loyalties, lessons in counterinsurgency, the importance of winning the hearts and minds of a people, and what diplomatic relations with a Taliban-led Afghanistan could look like. In this episode: (00:00) Ceding an Aura of Invincibility (03:15) Was Afghanistan Ever a Winnable War? (07:26) Karzai and State Building (11:12) Opium Production and Taliban (18:43) Shadow Taliban Government  (27:09) What Happened to the Northern Alliance? (33:39) Navigating US-Afghani Cultural Differences  (39:14) Afghanistan’s Geography (42:45) Lessons in Counterinsurgency (48:26) Legacy of Afghanistan War (50:09) Persistence of Taliban Government (51:58) Diplomatic Relations with Taliban (55:28) One Decision: The West Must Engage Afghanistan (56:41) Takeaways and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did a Holocaust-denying, hardline former president of Iran become the centerpiece of an Israeli plan to topple the regime in Tehran? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine sit down with New York Times investigative journalists Mark Mazzetti and Ronen Bergman to detail the high-stakes intelligence mission that preceded Operation Epic Fury. They explain how Israel’s Mossad groomed former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad into an intelligence asset, and how Mossad director David Barnea Ahmadinejad to the White House in February 2026 as part of a plan for rapid regime change in Iran. They also discuss the plan’s collapse within days of the decapitation strikes, why the plan to use Kurdish forces as a ground proxy was a non-starter, how the political fallout from the war may forever change US-Israel relations, and the electoral implications for both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this fall. (00:00) Legacy of the Iran War (02:30) Origins of Ahmadinejad Plot (05:10) Planning Iranian Regime Change (08:08) Was Ahmadinejad a Double Agent? (12:45) Why Recruit Ahmadinejad?  (15:34) Selling Trump on Regime Change (25:12) Credibility of Kurdish Option (33:27) War Planning vs. Reality (35:32) Legacy of Ahmadinejad Plot (38:55) Did Israel Manipulate the US? (41:44) Mood of Iranian People (43:58) Deal Prospects (46:18) Maximum Pressure on Iran (48:05) Impact of Israel’s Coming Elections (49:03) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Vladimir Putin promised Russia a "dictatorship of law" when he took office in 2000. He delivered the dictatorship -- but not the law. This week, Russia expert, human rights lawyer, and founder of Russia's first independent foreign law firm Jamison Firestone joins journalist Rosanna Lockwood and former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove to discuss his new book, Rule of Lies: My Wild Ride Through Chaos, Corruption, and Murder in Putin's Russia. Firestone lived through the upheaval of the early 1990s and worked alongside Sergei Magnitsky, who was murdered after exposing a Russian state built to loot itself. Firestone explains why Russia may now be close to a historical tipping point, how $300 billion in frozen Russian assets could be legally transferred to Ukraine to fund Kyiv;s war effort, and the ways in which Donald Trump has emulated Putin and Yeltsin. Plus, in Brief: changes coming to Germany's BND, the legacy of former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, Iceland's referendum on restarting EU membership talks, and the latest in the Iran War. In this episode: (00:00) Why Ukraine Matters (02:06) Germany Expands BND Powers (05:01) Zhu Rongji (07:52) Iceland EU Vote and NATO Role (11:46) Iran Deadline and Strait Tensions (15:11) Meet Jamison Firestone (16:42) Growing Up Around Gangsters (26:15) Loving Russia Despite Putin (30:46) Can Russia Reach a Tipping Point (34:32) Mobilization Pressure and Next Steps (36:15) Ukraine Aid and Frozen Funds (41:17) Legal Case For Seizure (43:57) Reparations Loan Explained (50:25) US Politics And Trump Parallels (54:24) How Putin Could Fall (57:06) Can Russia Be Democratic (59:03) Putin Isolation And Ukraine Motive (01:02:12) Life In London And Safety (01:05:08) Magnitsky Legacy And Costs (01:11:33) Drone Swarms And Future War Show Notes:  Rule of Lies: My Wild Ride Through Chaos, Corruption, and Murder in Putin's Russia | https://www.harpercollins.com/products/rule-of-lies-jamison-r-firestone?variant=44366648180770  Website to learn more about Jamison Firestone’s advocacy: https://makeputinpay.org/  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What role do intelligence services play under a president that does not heed their advice? That’s one of the questions Pulitzer Prize–winning reporter Tim Weiner posits in his most recent book, The Mission, which details how the modern Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has evolved during the era of the global war on terror. Weiner describes the evolution of the missions undertaken by the CIA, which were historically driven by presidential desires to change the world through covert action, and contrasts them with the post-Cold War agency that grapples with trust and reputation in the information era. Weiner also discusses how the delicate interplay between betrayal and trust underwrites intelligence work, the common aim of pursuing secrets that intelligence and journalism share, and why he believes the cumulative effects of partisan purges within intelligence services under President Donald Trump leaves the United States in a dire state of danger. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood dive into the news stories in geopolitics shaping the world this week: how a secret CIA task force in Cuba may be laying the groundwork for a more American-friendly government, why the construction of a new giant embassy for China is igniting political NIMBY-ism in London, and what US intelligence says about how stray Russian missiles and drones may be Putin’s way of testing NATO’s resolve.  (03:07) Secret CIA Cuba Task Force (07:24) New Chinese Embassy in London (12:31) Will Putin Test NATO’s Resolve? (14:37) Interview with Tim Weiner (15:29) Difficulty of Writing About the CIA (20:07) Human Element of Espionage (22:56) Evolution of the CIA (25:57) Sir Richard’s Post-9/11 Intel Recollections (30:08) Journalists, Intelligence, and Secrecy (34:58) Intelligence and Policy (39:59) Modern CIA Missions Under Trump (48:31) Partisan Purges in US Intel Services (54:55) Can Institutional Trust Recover? (58:48) Trump’s Potential Paradoxical Legacy (01:02:47) One Decision to Watch (01:03:32) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (international journalist). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat. Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics: the launch of Sweden’s own civilian intelligence service, whether President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects uncertainty or strategic deception, and the data supporting the skeptical American attitude about AI.  In this episode: (02:13) Sweden to Launch Its Own MI6 (06:01) Trump Hyperbole and Iran (09:18) America’s AI Skepticism (12:26) Interview with Michael Kofman (13:10) State of the Ukrainian-Russian Frontlines (15:30) Russian Military Goals vs. Means (19:43) Russia’s False Picture of Success (23:17) Evolution of Warfare on the Frontlines (28:58) Assessment of International Response (33:18) Patriot Missile Licensed Production Timeline (37:02) Changes in Ukrainian Defense Leadership (43:28) Corruption, Procurement, and Funding in Ukraine( 48:58) Russia’s Threat Post-War(54:50) Ukrainian Morale on the Frontlines\(57:18) Defining the Front Line of Fighting (01:00:21) One Decision to Watch (01:02:47) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up Show Notes:  The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-russia-threat-michael-kofman   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

AI models in the United States may be ahead of China’s in terms of capability, but China far surpasses America in adoption and use. That’s what former US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo says about the state of the AI race, and why she believes it's critical for the US and its allies to understand one thing: China is not our friend. She spells out how exactly China is creating technological dependencies, particularly in European countries, why it’s still important the West maintains continuous, managed economic competition with China, what social adoption of AI should look like in the US to curb anxieties around job loss, and why she remains optimistic about the promise of AI despite all this. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh analyze the events making the biggest geopolitical headlines: FBI Director Kash Patel’s upcoming trip to Russia, a nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, more changes in defense leadership in Ukraine, and the latest with the war in Iran. In this episode: (01:04) Kash Patel to Visit Russia (04:45) US-Saudi Nuclear Deal (09:39) Changes to Zelenskyy’s Cabinet (14:06) State of the Iran War (18:24) Interview with Gina Raimondo (19:17) US-China AI Race (23:00) Europe’s Vulnerability to China’s Influence (26:16) Managing Economic Competition between US/China (28:31) Why AI is a Geopolitical Net-Good (30:27) Social Adoption of AI (35:31) Regulation for AI (37:44) One Decision to Watch (38:58) Takeaways and Wrap Up Show Notes:  Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (Former Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Professor Vali Nasr argues that the single objective that's driven Tehran since 1979 has been defending its independence from the US. Author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, Nasr says that logic, more than ideology, explains the current war. He unpacks Iran's shift toward hard-nosed nationalism, what leverage it has left, and whether the country will take a more pragmatic approach to geopolitics.  Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host John Raine talk through the headlines shaping today’s geopolitics: Japan's intelligence overhaul, the fallout from Zelensky's clash with his defense minister, China's new AI cooperation push, and the UK's untested new PM Andy Burnham. 03:16 Japan Builds Spy Agency07:35 Ukraine Defense Shakeup11:14 China Pushes AI Rules14:49 New UK Prime Minister18:24 Guest interview begins23:20 From Islam to Nationalism28:15 War Pragmatism and New Leaders32:27 Proxies and Forward Defense38:21 How the War Ends43:43 Gulf Markets and Hormuz48:12 Buying Peace49:49 Energy Shifts and Long Game55:37 One Decision to Watch56:23 Takeaways and Wrap Up Show Notes:  Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In recent months of the war, Ukraine has managed to hold its front lines and bring war to regular Russians via attacks on infrastructure. That’s why Economic Advisor to the President of Ukraine Chrystia Freeland believes Ukraine has flipped the narrative from being the virtuous victim of Russia’s aggression to the necessary ally and shield of Europe. This week, she joins Sir Ben Wallace and co-host Kate McCann to make the case for why Ukraine is winning, and why winning on the economic battlefield is equally important to the country’s future.  Freeland talks about how Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is laying the political groundwork for Ukraine’s economic success, the importance of Ukraine’s alliances, and why Poland’s success story should serve as a model for Ukraine’s post-war future. They also discuss Ukraine’s strong defense industrial base, the importance of rooting out corruption and the remnants of Soviet ideology for bringing in investment to the country, the challenges of attracting people back to Ukraine, and why victory for Ukraine is a victory for liberal democracy. Plus, In Brief: what Andy Burnham is up against on the UK’s defense front as he ascends to the role of Prime Minister, another battle in the Strait of Hormuz reignites conflict between Iran and the United States, and a leadership shakeup in China’s People’s Liberation Army. In this episode: (00:00) Cold Open and Introduction (02:21) Incoming UK PM Andy Burnham  (04:16) IRGC Proscription Explained (05:20) Renewed Tensions with Iran (09:14) China Military Leadership Shakeup (10:32) Chrystia Freeland On Ukraine (11:35) Is Ukraine Winning? (15:38) Ukrainian Sentiment on the State of War (24:43) Zelenskyy’s Political Strategy (29:44) Ukrainian Defense Innovation (33:36) Why Crimea Was A Strategic Blunder for Putin (37:17) Ukraine’s Future Economic Vision (42:39) Corruption and Investment in Ukraine (53:32) Rebuilding Ukraine and Returning Home (56:28) Why Allyship is Key for Ukrainian Success (59:48) Reflecting On Politics, Alliances, and the Future of Ukraine Hosted by Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defense Secretary) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Football can be geopolitics by other means. Financial Times Journalist Simon Kuper has covered every World Cup since 1990. This week, he joins Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika to unpack how football and geopolitics collide.  Kuper explains why he thinks FIFA president Gianni Infantino runs the organization like an autocrat, how U.S. President Donald Trump's red card intervention echoes historical precedents set by Mussolini and Brazil's military government, and why hosting a World Cup brings prestige but rarely economic benefit. The conversation also covers the KGB's use of Soviet football clubs for cover during the Cold War, football's role in the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, why China's investment in football hasn't paid off, and how France's multicultural national team has become a flashpoint in its domestic politics. Plus, in Brief: Russian strikes on Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit, German prosecutors' Nord Stream allegations against Ukraine, deepening Russia-China military cooperation, and reports of Trump pushing for a "master list" of intelligence assets. In this episode: (00:00) World Cup Geopolitics Football & Global Power (00:45) England's Surprising World Cup Victory (03:05) Football As Geopolitics Explained (03:24) Russia-Ukraine War Intelligence Analysis (11:12) Trump CIA Spy List Dangers Exposed (14:25) Andy Burnham Northern Devolution Power Shift (19:10) Simon Kuper On The Geopolitics Of Football (23:07) FIFA Corruption Infantino's Autocratic Control (28:00) Jules Rimet World Cup Origins Peace Vision (30:23) 1954 World Cup Rebuilt German National Identity (38:42) KGB Soviet Football Cold War Espionage (47:53) Argentina 1978 World Cup Junta Propaganda (49:52) Qatar 2022 World Cup Human Rights Backlash (1:02:49) Reflecting On Football Power, Politics, & Identity Show Notes:  Soccernomics: Why European Men and American Women Usually Win―and American Men Don’t (Yet) | https://a.co/d/07dBzyak World Cup Fever: A Soccer Journey in Nine Tournaments | https://a.co/d/0g5raBr3 Football Against The Enemy: https://a.co/d/04OUzQgR  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Donald Trump has continued his pressure campaign on European defense spending. But in the lead-up to the next NATO Summit, there is another core question to ask: How is Europe coordinating its defense production? This might be the key issue that determines how Trump's pressure campaign pays off in the long run.  Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove are joined by Ambassador Julianne Smith (Former United States Permanent Representative to NATO under President Biden) and A. Wess Mitchell, Ph.D. (former senior State Department official who helped shape the first Trump administration's Europe strategy) to break down what's really at stake in Ankara.  Plus: Should NATO stay laser-focused on Russia and leave China to the U.S.? How deep is the lingering trust deficit after the Greenland dispute?  Got a question or comment? Email us at hello@onedecision.com or drop us a comment on YouTube. We might answer it in next week's episode. In this episode: (00:00) Cold Open (00:57) Where US-Iran Talks Stand (06:33) Five Eyes Warnings: Chinese LinkedIn Recruitment & AI Threats (11:51) Setting the Scene for NATO's Ankara Summit (13:35) What Does the US Want Out of This Summit? (19:47) Debating What "US Leadership" Really Means (24:59) Trump's Balancing Act: Pressure vs. Reassurance (28:04) The Coordination Problem: Europe's "Potluck Dinner" (37:19) Should NATO Even Focus on China? (44:31) The Anglosphere & AUKUS Debate (45:23) Who's the Most Awkward Meeting for Trump in Ankara? (47:47) Is Trump's Personality a Distraction From Policy? (50:05) Will the Iran War Overshadow the Summit? (52:35) Chaos Agent or Strategic Operator? (56:19) The One Decision to Watch at Ankara (59:31) Listener Mail: Energy Pricing & Geopolitical Reality (1:04:15) Listener Mail: Cuba's Civil Society Problem Show Notes:  https://youtu.be/0pYUYBwRdLs?si=2fbDUznnuIs-Y5H3  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7FGkxRO_es  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of the United States’ MOU with Iran, the headlines have been chock-full of optimism. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, RBC Capital Markets, to lend more nuance to the news.  Also: What Starmer’s resignation could mean for the UK, takeaways from the recent G7 meeting, Ukraine’s success with drones, and how things have changed in the decade since Brexit.  In this episode: (00:00) Intro: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Explained (02:00) UK PM Starmer Resigns: What Comes Next (08:34) G7 Summit: China, Ukraine, and Europe's Crisis (14:22) Ukraine War: Can Russia Be Stopped? (18:35) Brexit at 10: Was It Worth It? (23:24) Is the Strait of Hormuz Really Open? (30:08) Oil Markets React to Iran-US Peace Deal (36:55) Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Really at Stake (44:39) Iran Sanctions Explained: Congress vs. Treasury (48:01) OPEC's Collapse: Saudi Arabia vs. China (51:47) Best and Worst Case Outcomes for Oil (58:22) Key Takeaways: Global Energy's New Reality Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (former Pentagon Press Secretary) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The man who secretly negotiated with Cuba for the Obama Administration says it plainly: the risk of military intervention is quite high. Ricardo Zúniga breaks down why the U.S. and Cuba are headed toward conflict, why the Cuban regime would rather fight than negotiate, and why Cuba is not Venezuela, no matter what the White House says. Also this week: the Iran-U.S. ceasefire deal, the resignation of UK Defense Secretary John Healey, and what Armenia's election means for Putin. In this episode: (02:07) Iran Deal (07:32) UK Defense Shakeup (09:39) Armenia Votes West (12:14) Cuba Interview Begins (15:04) Life Inside Cuba (18:31) Cuba Versus Venezuela (20:22) Russia China Backing (24:01) Collapse Crime Risks (28:28) Will US Strike Cuba? (33:04) Reform Not Bombs (36:51) CIA Channel Talks( 44:00) Intermediaries Options (46:34) One Decision to Change Cuba’s Fate  Show Notes:  The Day After in Cuba | Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/day-after-cuba  Is Cuba About to Fall? A 35-Year CIA Analyst on What Comes Next | One Decision https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddlk1Wxy8To  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The minerals inside your phone, your car, and U.S. fighter jets almost all pass through one country: China. Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, founding director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to explain how China built a stranglehold on rare earth production, and what it will actually take to break it. Critical Minerals are this century's defining supply chain vulnerability: it's a demand problem, a democracy problem, and, for the West, a race against a country that isn’t swayed by elections. Also: Israel's espionage escalation against US officials, Poland's rise as Europe's top defense power, and the fall of Orbán's Hungary. In this episode: (00:00) Intro: China's Rare Earth Minerals Takeover (01:43) World Cup 2026 Preview (03:50) Middle East Conflict Updates (06:57) Israel Spying on US Officials? (08:43) Bill Pulte Named Intelligence Director (10:27) US APAC Strategy Shifts (14:41) Poland Becomes Europe's Defense Power (16:44) Hungary After Orbán's Fall (19:57) China's Critical Minerals Chokehold (27:12) Western Mining Supply Chain Crisis (38:28) Frontier Markets: Africa's Mineral Race (57:32) Taiwan Crisis and Mineral Shortages Show Notes:  The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/06/us/politics/pentagon-sees-growing-espionage-threat-from-israel.html Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Iran conflict contains dueling narratives. Iran says it repelled the attack. Israel says it decimated the nuclear program. The US says it brokered peace. So, how do you find out what actually happened? That’s where Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) can provide valuable information to the public.  Eliot Higgins built Bellingcat from a Leicester living room blog into the world's most influential open source intelligence organization. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with him to find out how OSINT cuts through the war of narratives on Iran, Ukraine, and the fronts nobody's covering. Plus: why AI is making the truth harder to find, not easier, and why Higgins won't set foot in the United States right now. Show Notes:  bellingcat.com  The al-Qaeda offshoot looking to Syria as a blueprint | The Financial Times Senior State Department official sought internal communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics | MIT Technology Review Why these Irish cartel bosses are still free | Search Party   In this episode: 03:21 Iran Ceasefire 06:39 Israel Strategy Explained 08:53 EU Gets Tough on China 12:30 Mali The Next Syria 16:21 CIA Gold Bar Scandal 20:12 Meet Eliot Higgins 23:37 What Is Bellingcat 25:41 AI Slopaganda Threat 29:20 Dark Web Data Trails 31:13 Russia Adapts Tradecraft 32:54 UAE Image Manipulation 34:07 Rapid OSINT Response 35:57 Blackouts and Radar Tools 37:17 Iran Narrative War 39:17 Tomahawk Strike Verification 41:50 Prediction Versus Proof 43:19 Spies Versus OSINT 46:19 Threats and Harassment 50:56 Ukraine OSINT Evolution 54:50 Why China Is Hard for OSINT 01:00:31 Funding and Partnerships Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise occurring hours into the war, the West anticipated a collapse of the Iranian regime and a popular uprising that never came to be. Is a ‘memorandum of understanding’ the only thing preventing total escalation in the region? In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host journalist Kate McCann sit down with John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), to analyze the ripple effects of the war in Iran and what it will take to stabilize the Middle East. What is keeping a comprehensive peace deal off the table? How did Western intelligence miscalculate the IRGC’s resilience? And where does this leave the rest of the Middle East? We also break down China’s pledge to support Cuba’s sovereignty, the 75th anniversary of the Cambridge Five espionage scandal, and the latest in the war in Ukraine, including China’s role in training Russian soldiers and the opening of a museum in North Korea that memorializes the North Korean losses in the war.   In this episode: 1:07 – Iran, Israel & Trump: The Middle East Crisis Explained 2:52 – Cuba, China, and US Spheres of Influence 6:23 – Cambridge Five: Cold War Spy Scandal Revisited 9:51 – Russia, North Korea, and Ukraine War Shifting 13:26 – Iran War: MOU vs. Formal Peace Deal Explained 16:55 – Why a Comprehensive Iran Deal Remains Out of Reach 22:41 – IRGC Resilience: How Iran's Regime Survived 29:08 – Who Has Influence Over Iran's IRGC? 33:51 – Israel's Military Objectives and Netanyahu's Agenda 39:36 – Gulf States' Vulnerability and Abraham Accords Future 45:26 – How Does the Iran Conflict End? Three Scenarios 49:47 – Sir Richard and Kate Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

95 percent of global internet traffic travels through underwater fiber optic cables. They've never been more vulnerable. In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood are joined by journalist and author Samanth Subramanian. His latest book,  The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation into the hidden infrastructure holding the world's economy together, and the growing threats to it. Subramanian’s book, The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation  Iran is threatening to levy tolls on cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. China is cutting cables in Taiwan's territorial waters using "fishing boats." Russia has been probing European undersea networks for years. And yet there's virtually no international legal framework to stop any of it. Links:  The Web Beneath the Waves | Columbia Global Reports  In this episode: 1:05 — Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump's Strategy 3:44 — US-China Summit: What Really Happened 6:10 — Putin Visits Xi: Russia's Anxiety 8:13 — CIA in Cuba: Economic Takeover Begins 11:17 — Israel's New Mossad Chief Explained 13:22 — Germany's BND Gets New Powers 17:52 — Undersea Cable Vulnerability Exposed 18:48 — How 95% of Internet Data Travels 32:58 — Can Cables Be Tapped Underwater? 38:54 — Deliberate Cable Attacks: Gray Zone War 45:04 — South China Sea: The Biggest Chokepoint 54:53 — One Decision: Future of the Internet 55:55 — Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).  Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All eyes are on Beijing as President Trump meets with President Xi Jinping for the first US presidential visit to China in nine years. This week, Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Rush Doshi — former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan at Biden's National Security Council and author of The Long Game — to break down what's really at stake. What does China want from this summit? How far will Trump go on Taiwan? And why is artificial intelligence now the defining battleground between the world's two superpowers? We also cover the latest from the Iran ceasefire collapse, the Russia-Ukraine stalemate, and what sweeping local election losses mean for Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister. In this episode: 1:02 – Sir Richard’s Secret China Mission 3:11 – Iran Ceasefire Collapse Explained 7:19 – Russia-Ukraine War Stalemate Update 10:50 – UK Elections: Labour's Sweeping Defeat 17:13 – Rush Doshi on US-China Strategy 22:46 – China vs US Economic Interdependence 35:47 – Taiwan: Invasion or Economic Pressure? 43:11 – AI Regulation: New Nuclear Arms Race 44:51 – Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion  Show Links:  The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order  Iran's Regime Won't Fall. It Was Built for This. Iran Expert Trita Parsi on Regional Ramifications  Obama's China Advisor on Why China Wants the US Stuck in the Middle East | One Decision Will China Invade Taiwan in 2026? Expert's New Insight Reveals "Perfect Storm" | One Decision   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Venezuela's leader Delcy Rodríguez has no constitutional legitimacy, by any standard, including Chavismo's own rules, according to lawyer-turned-journalist Raul Stolk. So who is actually running Venezuela right now? And what does the United States really want? Raul Stolk, Managing Director of Caracas Chronicles, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann for a deep dive into the power structures propping up the Rodríguez government, the US military's direct line to the Venezuelan armed forces, and why opposition leader María Corina Machado may be the single biggest wild card in the country's future. Links:  https://caracaschronicles.com https://caracaschronicles.substack.com/ https://caracasconsulting.com/  In this episode: 2:53 - Iran War Impact on Global Energy Markets 6:34 - UAE Exits OPEC: End of Saudi Dominance 8:16 - New Iraqi Government and Middle East Stability 11:31 - Japan Creates Intelligence Bureau  15:40 - Venezuela After Maduro: Trump's Business Strategy 17:34 - Delcy Rodriguez Legitimacy and Constitutional Crisis 24:34 - Venezuela Military Power Structure Post-Maduro 30:07 - US Geopolitical Goals in Venezuela 45:07 - Venezuela Oil Market China Russia Rivalry 54:47 - Machado Return: Venezuela Election Wild Card 55:48 - Sir Richard and Kate Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor, The Times) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Has the divisive rhetoric of President Trump’s administration irrevocably changed America’s reputation in the eyes of its allies and adversaries? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika sit down with Democratic US Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire to discuss how US foreign policy has shifted during Trump’s second term. Beginning with In Brief, Sir Richard and Ayesha examine the history of UK royalty visits to the US from Queen Elizabeth II to King Charles II, and the strategic importance of these visits for maintaining the “special relationship” between the US and UK. Then, Senator Shaheen argues that Trump’s lax approach to Putin and Russia undermines support for Ukraine, emphasizing that a win for Ukraine is a win for the West. She criticizes the administration’s China strategy, warning that the withdrawal of aid and allyship by America has put China in a position to fill the vacuum. The Senator also warns about the growing relationships between members of the “axis of resistance”—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—citing their increased cooperation as why America maintaining its historic alliances with NATO countries and beyond is so critical for a stable world. In this episode: 03:02 – King Charles’ first official state visit to the US 13:50 – The fragility of the US-UK relationship 17:04 – Allies and adversaries behind the scenes 19:07 – Russia, Ukraine, and the Iran war 21:51 – Putin and the G20 25:10 – What’s next in the Iran war? 24:49 – The blockade ‘game of chicken’ at the Strait of Hormuz 32:39 – US and China relations 36:22 – China’s rare earth dominance 39:26 – NATO defense spending 42:22 – One Decision: Will Iran negotiations be successful?  45:15 – Sir Richard and Ayesha discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member, House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Pakistan steps into its role as peace broker, is India being left in the cold? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood are joined by lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale, Sushant Singh, to unpack this dramatic shift in South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Starting with In Brief, Sir Richard and Rosanna look at how the Iran and US blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are putting the global energy economy in peril. They also discuss the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire in relation to the stability of Lebanon’s government, as well as whether secret US talks with Cuba will lead to military or economic intervention in the country. Then, Singh explains the unexpected rise of Pakistan as mediator for peace talks between Washington and Tehran, the diminishing influence of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi globally and at home, and how balancing its relationships with China and Russia may come at the cost of eroding India’s alliance with the US. In this episode: 03:36 – Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz 08:00 – Latest on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire 13:53 – Cuba is back on Washington’s radar 18:43 – Sushant Singh introduction 19:30 – Pakistan’s surprise mediator role 23:00 – Explaining India’s ‘dalal’ remark 25:42 – Modi’s weakening at home 27:59 – Muslim-Hindu divide in India 28:56 – Modi’s Pakistan dilemma 30:18 – Pakistan’s Middle East reclassification 32:04 – The growing irrelevance of the Quad 34:08 – India’s dependence on Russia 39:39 – Erosion of US-India relationship 44:04 – India’s Israeli ties 48:19 – Risks for Pakistan as a mediator  51:21 – One Decision: Can India and Pakistan start talking again? 53:01 – Sir Richard and Rosanna discussion Read more: Pakistan’s Peacemaking Is a Setback for India Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US has moved critical missile defenses and troops from East Asia to the Middle East. With America’s resources stretched thin, is this the ultimate strategic opportunity for China? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace and Times Radio political editor Kate McCann sit down with former advisor to President Obama and Georgetown University Director of Asia Studies Evan Medeiros to explore what he calls China’s strategy of “calculated neutrality” – protecting Beijing’s economic interests while avoiding direct conflict with the United States. First, for In Brief, Sir Ben and Kate discuss the US’s thinking behind blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Lord George Robertson’s scathing critique of UK foreign policy, and whether Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat signals the beginning of the end of “strong man” populist politics. Later, Medeiros examines China’s balancing of its economic interests in both Iran and the Gulf countries, China’s Iranian oil “loophole” via the UAE, and if the Iran war is deepening fractures in Western alliances, potentially upending the global rules-based order. In this episode: 02:05 – US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz 04:59 – Frustration amongst Gulf states 06:45 – UK Role, and Lord George Robertson’s warning to the UK 12:16 – Does Orban’s defeat signal the end of “strong man” politics? 15:39 – Evan Medeiros introduction 17:04 – Defining China’s “calculated neutrality” 18:28 – Is China above the fray of war? 19:32 – Balancing leverage with Iran and the Gulf states 24:03 – Is Beijing arming Iran? 27:45 – China’s Iranian oil loophole 28:54 – China: Displacing vs. replacing the US 32:25 – Why China avoids regional wars 36:54 – One Decision: China’s vision for a post-American world order 42:08 – Sir Ben and Kate discussion Hosted by Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defence Secretary) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russia may be issuing verbal condemnations from the sidelines of the conflict in Iran, but behind the scenes, it’s leveraging its relationship with Iran to give the US a “taste of its own medicine.” Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Times Radio political editor Kate McCann sit down with Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss Russia’s calculated role in the escalating war in Iran. Gabuev explains why the US being preoccupied in fighting another Middle Eastern conflict is a “gift” to Putin, including how temporary sanctions relief and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts Russian oil revenues. Together, they also analyze the impact of the war on Ukraine’s security and energy infrastructure, as well as how continued economic strain and repression in Russia may limit its involvement in the conflict. In this episode: 01:35 – Why the Iran War helps Russia 04:17 – Oil shock and Russian windfall 16:48 – The Iran-Russia alliance 23:11 – Limits of Kremlin support 28:24 – Iran War knock-on effects for Ukraine 32:58 – Ukraine’s Gulf alliance strategy 38:05 – Russian public mood and repression 42:47 – One Decision: What’s Trump’s next move? 44:00 – Sir Richard and Kate discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After Iran shot down two US warplanes, President Trump shot back with a scathing ultimatum. But are Trump’s words pushing the world towards a point of no return? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine a weekend of high-stakes escalation in the Middle East. They discuss the thinking and implications behind President Trump’s explosive online rhetoric, as well as the global fallout of the war on energy markets in Asia and Oceania. Plus, they preview Hungary’s upcoming election, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces a significant challenge by Péter Magyar in an election that could remove a major "thorn in the side" of the European Union and unlock billions in aid for Ukraine. In this episode: 00:22 – The war in Iran drags on 01:56 – IRGC assassinations and the strategy of regime implosion 06:15 – Trump’s ever-changing deadlines for Iran 07:37 – The rescue of the American weapons specialist 10:07 – The Truth Social ultimatum 11:04 – A US ground invasion scenario 13:23 – The global energy squeeze 15:53 – Hungary’s pivotal election 20:37 – Show announcement Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This isn’t just another Middle Eastern conflict—it’s a fundamental restructuring of global power. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika with Fareed Zakaria, veteran journalist, author, and host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS. Together, they examine Israel’s war strategy, and whether or not the war aims of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are misaligned. They also discuss the entry of the Houthis into the conflict on Iran’s behalf, as well as why the war in Iran could prove far more consequential to daily life across the globe than the Iraq War ever was.  In this episode: 01:43 – Israel’s Campaign in Lebanon 08:06 – Does Israel’s “Buffer Zone” Have an Ulterior Motive?  11:29 – Do Netanyahu and Trump Have Different War Aims?  15:10 – Will America Put Boots on the Ground in Iran? 17:14 – End of a Strategic Conflict, or a Massive Gamble? 22:22 – The Houthi Strategy  28:35 – Why Russia Wins and Europe Loses 32:20 – Geopolitics in a Post-Trump World 36:28 – Can the UK Still Rely on the US? 41:47 – Why the Iran War Hurts Ukraine 46:24 – What’s Trump’s Next Move? 48:40 – Sir Richard and Baroness Hazarika Discussion   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member of House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone is calling it another Iraq. Sir Richard Dearlove disagrees. In this episode of One Decision In Brief, the former MI6 chief makes the case that what's unfolding in Iran may be something different: the final chapter of a decades-long conflict, with a window for the United States to actually close it. Sir Richard and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika break down the military logic — why Kharg Island is the likely first target, what securing the Strait of Hormuz would actually take, and whether a ground operation could stay limited. They also assess Iran's internal fractures, Russia's quiet role, China's conspicuous absence, and what the Gulf States really want from Washington right now. Is this the moment the West finally resolves the Iran question, or the beginning of something far worse? In this episode: 07:09 Uranium Extraction Scenario 09:14 Avoiding a Land Quagmire 10:58 Trump’s Legacy Calculus 11:52 Russia Helps; China Absent 13:39 Will Gulf States Choose America? Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cuba is running out of fuel, its economy is in ruins, and 2 million of its citizens have already fled. Is the communist regime finally at its breaking point? Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann sit down with Brian Latell, PhD, a 35-year CIA veteran and the agency's top Cuba and Latin America analyst. They assess whether the government can survive Trump's fuel embargo, what a transition would actually look like, and why Marco Rubio's approach may be more measured than his rhetoric suggests. In this episode: 04:19 US-Cuba Relations 10:25 Risks of Squeezing Cuba Too Hard 13:03 Can the Regime Collapse Peacefully 18:03 Who Holds Power in Havana 23:02 Intelligence Files and Biosecurity Fears 27:31 Rebuilding Cuba and Diaspora Role 29:35 What Drives Marco Rubio 31:08 One Decision to Watch Next Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From an ultimatum to a “pause” in attacks, did President Donald Trump just blink, or is he playing a much larger game with Iran? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann analyze whether President Trump’s sudden shift on Iran is a genuine diplomatic opening, a calculated move to cool soaring global oil prices, or an attempt to buy time for US Marine reinforcements to arrive. They also explore the potential strategic friction between the US and Israel, Trump’s broader foreign policy objectives, including Venezuela and Cuba, and the UK and Europe’s reluctant role in the escalating Iranian conflict. In this episode: 01:56 – From 48 Hour Ultimatum to Five-Day Pause 03:40 – The Fragility of Global Markets 05:26 – Are There Backchannel Talks Inside Iran? 07:48 – Escalating to De-Escalate 09:41– Israel-US Divergent Aims 11:36 – Does the Conflict Help or Hurt Trump? 15:14 – UK and Europe on the Sidelines Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Strait of Hormuz is in a chokehold. The scale of this oil supply disruption has already exceeded the shocks of the 1970s. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former senior CIA analyst, to break down what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and what a Houthi entry into the conflict could mean for the Red Sea.  In this episode: 3:04 Technical Side of Supply Disruption  6:11 IEA and Comparison to Russia-Ukraine  9:32 Alternative Routes for Oil and Gas  12:08 Russia is the Big Winner 13:13 Ground Troops Needed to Open the Strait of Hormuz  17:14 The US Domestic Picture  21:43 Will Houthis Disrupt the Red Sea?  27:52 What Market Participants Are Not Understanding 30:57 Is $200 Barrel Crude Oil Possible?  33:19 Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump’s call for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz has not been answered by European allies. Does this signal a growing crisis of confidence in the West? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine the latest developments in the war with Iran, as well as rising political polarization in France and the UK, fears of domestic terrorist attacks in the West, and the critical importance of Kharg Island to the global energy market. In this episode: 01:48 – The divisive dilemma at the Strait of Hormuz 04:05 – Fears of Iranian proxy terror attacks in the West 06:14 – Political polarization in European elections 12:45 – Iran’s internal media strategy 14:47 – The strategic importance of Kharg Island Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What exactly drove President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in joint strikes against Iran? Ronen Bergman joins from Tel Aviv where he is a Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth and staff writer for The New York Times Magazine. He shares his reporting of how Netanyahu moved Trump toward a joint strike, and why he's staying quiet about it for now. Then, retired Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, former Israeli Defence Forces spokesperson and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, breaks down the major Israeli military objectives and how close Israel is to achieving each one. Plus, what Arab Gulf states are privately telling Israel.  In this episode: 01:24 New Leader Wounded 06:42 Israel Aims And Limits 09:36 Regime Change Doubts 16:14 Israeli Public Mood 23:30 Intel Airpower Strategy 25:12 Introducing LT. COL. (RET.) Jonathan Conricus  29:48 Strait of Hormuz Threat 32:45 Stopping Enriched Uranium 36:21 War Communications as Force Multiplier  40:55 Regime Change Scenarios 43:58 Gulf States Defense  Show Notes:  Iran’s New Supreme Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say - The New York Times  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One of the few Americans briefed before US hit Iran sits down with Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to share his analysis: the legal justification is false, the strategic endgame doesn't exist, and we may have just handed Iran every reason to build a nuclear weapon. US Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, breaks down Trump's grip on Capitol Hill, and whether the only exit is a face-saving declaration of victory. Recorded March 9th, 2025. Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed to succeed his father as Supreme Leader of Iran. What now? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who spent eight years as Chairman of the British–Iran Parliamentary Group, views this as a doubling down on defiance. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood break down the rationale behind why the IRGC is vested in maintaining the status quo, the growing rift between the United States’s strategy and Gulf States Allies, and whether or not the United States and Israel have a viable endgame.Plus: Already at $100 per barrel, how high will the price of oil climb? What impact will the conflict in Iran have on European security and economies? Are Russia and China giving Iran an intelligence edge? In this episode: 01:10 Succession in Tehran 02:56 The IRGC as a Business Cartel 04:10 The Gulf States’ Perspective 06:55 UAE Business Backlash 10:26 Insurance and War Risk Shock 14:10 Shahi Drones and Escalation Risks 17:51 EU and UK Economic Hit 19:33 UK Politics and Social Tensions 21:38 One Decision to Watch Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief), Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defence Secretary) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran's strategy isn't to defeat the US militarily. Trita Parsi argues that it's to make the cost high enough, fast enough, to collapse domestic support before Iran loses. With MAGA turning against the war, oil markets destabilizing, and both parties alarmed by talk of ground troops, Trump urgently needs a face-saving exit. Plus, Parsi believes that Iran's revolutionary system was built to withstand exactly this kind of pressure. Trita Parsi is the co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, co-founder and former president of the National Iranian American Council, and author of four books on US foreign policy in the Middle East.  In this episode: 01:19 Succession After Assassination 03:13 Army vs IRGC Dynamics 10:55 Iran Strategy and US Politics 15:44 Why No Uprising 22:42 Gulf States Security Fallout 25:43 Saudi Shift After Oct 7 30:03 MAGA Backlash and Exit Ramps 33:32 Why Trump Went In 39:56 One Decision to Watch Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton doesn't mince words: the opening strikes on Iran were just the beginning. In this special bonus episode, Bolton breaks down why he believes the Iranian regime will fragment from within, what the Gulf Arab states are about to do, and how war in Iran affects Russia, Ukraine, and China.  Then, retired Lt. General Mark Hertling brings the view from the ground. A veteran of multiple Iraq deployments and the former Chief of War Plans on the Joint Staff. Hertling has seen this before. He's asking the question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer: Is there actually a plan for the day after the strikes? In this episode: 01:31 John Bolton 04:32 Power Vacuum Risks 08:44 Gulf States Reaction 10:50 Iran Retaliation Strategy 15:16 Israel Influence Question 17:03 Oil Shock And Putin 19:51 China And Taiwan  23:34 Deterrence And Alliances 29:51 Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling 34:28 Decapitation and Unrest 36:24 Iraq Lessons on Disbandment 42:02 Intel Gaps and Planning 52:19 Wider Regional Fallout Show Notes:  Opinion | With attack on Iran, U.S. deterrence is being restored - The Washington Post  Order Mark Harling’s book: If I Don’t Return: A Father’s Wartime Journal Lt. General Mark Hertling recorded on March 2, and Amb. John Bolton recorded on March 3.  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After weeks of buildup, the United States and Israel have attacked Iran, killing long-time leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. How will the downfall of his regime reverberate throughout the Middle East and beyond?  Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) dive into the questions around the decision to strike Iran, what the death of Khamenei means for Iran’s future, and whether Iranian proxies in the region like Hezbollah have the strength to aid in retaliation. Plus: Does China have a reason to step in and help Iran? Should Russian President Vladimir Putin be concerned that he’s lost an ally, or emboldened because of the United States’ split attention? What will the UK’s involvement be in supporting the US and Israel in this conflict? In this episode: 01:37 - The decision behind killing Khamenei 03:43 - Ramifications of turning Khamenei into a martyr 06:32 - Why a popular uprising in Iran is unlikely 08:50 - Starlink and the information war 10:25 - How the Ayatollah’s downfall may be the death knell for Iran’s regional proxies 12:28 - Who backs Iran now? 13:51 - Will China be a mediator? 15:48 - Putin’s lost an ally 19:18 - Consequences of Starmer’s hesitancy 22:36 - The lethal combination of Israeli HUMINT and the CIA’s advanced surveillance Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When a former CIA officer and the ex-Chief of MI6 agree something is coming — pay attention. This week, Sir Richard Dearlove, former Chief of MI6, and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika are joined by Mike Baker, a former CIA covert operations officer with nearly two decades running intelligence operations in the world's most hostile environments. Together, they give an unvarnished assessment of the three crises dominating global affairs right now: whether US military action against Iran is imminent and what it would actually target; why Putin has little incentive to end the war in Ukraine and what could change his calculus; and why Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, may be closer to collapse than anyone is reporting. Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. Supreme Court just struck down President Trump's reciprocal tariffs — so what happens next? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika break down Trump's options to reimpose his tariff regime, what it means for trade negotiators worldwide, and why international leaders who flew to Washington may have wasted their time. Plus: Will US intel lead the front of the war against Mexican drug cartels? What role will the Board of Peace play on the global stage beyond Gaza? Is the United Nations still an important force in geopolitics? In this episode: What’s next for President Trump’s tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court’s sweeping decision  Knock-on effects to watch for following the killing of Mexican cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, aka “El Mencho” The role President Trump’s Board of Peace may play in the rebuilding of Gaza The diminished relevance of the United Nations in world affairs Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member of the House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public life, and not for his alleged behavior toward women. He is the first member of the British royal family to be detained since King Charles I was taken prisoner in 1647. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove details the level of classified information Andrew may have allegedly shared for personal gain. In this special bonus episode: Why Prince Andrew was arrested for misconduct in public office The state of the UK justice system and the future of the monarchy The fallout from the Epstein files: why the UK is acting while the US remains silent Peter Mandelson’s vulnerability to similar charges Andrew’s history as “Randy Andy” and “Air Miles Andy” Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor, The Times).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is 2026 China's window to “reunite” Taiwan? With Trump’s muted position on Taiwan and focus on the Western Hemisphere, China experts see a "perfect storm" of opportunity. Yun Sun, Ph.D., Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, explains why Beijing believes this may be a now-or-never moment.  Dr. Sun unpacks her arguments and warnings from her recent Foreign Affairs essay. In this episode: The People's Liberation Army’s military readiness  If the United States won’t intervene, would Japan or South Korea?  Decoding the signals from the purge of PLA generals Xi Jinping's legacy ambitions Warning signs to watch in 2026 Show Notes:  A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026? | Foreign Affairs   Yun Sun | Stimson Center Yun Sun | Brookings  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (international journalist). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech at the Munich Security Conference marks a seismic shift in European defense. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove breaks down why Germany's massive military spending increase changes everything, and why the UK might be left behind. Plus: Is the US heading toward military conflict with Iran? What is the significance of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s controversial support for Orban in Hungary?  In this episode: Germany's constitutional change for unprecedented defense spending Merz's "German Gaullism" - what it means for Europe Why Starmer's Munich speech fell flat Israel strategizing with Trump administration regarding Iran Zelensky's election strategy and Ukraine's battlefield gains Show Notes:  Royal Navy misses £500m of submarine maintenance | The Times   Le gaullisme allemand de Merz à Munich: discours intégral | Le Grand Continent   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at The Times). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

s the United States about to launch military strikes against Iran? Former National Security Council official Michael Allen joins One Decision to discuss escalating tensions in the Middle East, revealing why he believes President Trump will soon authorize joint US-Israeli military action against Iran. In this episode, Michael Allen analyzes: Why Iran negotiations may be doomed to fail Putin's negotiating strategy and the Donbas sticking point Europe's slow response to Trump's defense spending demands Michael Allen is a Managing Director at Beacon Global Strategies, co-host of NatSec Matters Podcast, and a former NSC official who ran intelligence strategy and counter-proliferation. Show Notes:  A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran | WSJ  The Critical Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast | ISW  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (former Pentagon Press Secretary). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein files has reached the highest levels of the United Kingdom Parliament. Tensions continue to rise as Iran attempts to run out the clock on American forces. Russia–Ukraine peace talks appear to be stalling yet again. Former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Sabrina Singh dive into the ongoing turmoil facing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Sir Richard details calls for the PM’s resignation, as documents in the Epstein files reveal that Starmer’s former U.S. ambassador pick, Peter Mandelson, allegedly distributed classified intelligence with Epstein back in 2008. Sabrina gets into Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s approach to engaging with Iran. Sir Richard explains Iran’s strategy for running out the clock on the United States, and why past nuclear negotiations remain influential for both sides. Ukraine does not appear willing to surrender the Donbas region to Russia. Sir Richard and Sabrina analyze the war’s impact on the strained Russian economy. As casualties on both sides continue to mount, Russians are fleeing the country at rates not seen in decades to escape the conflict and conscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices