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Recession Indicators Go Off, Is the Housing Market Safe?
Episode 248
Monday, September 2, 2024 • Duration 45:27
Recession fears are increasing. The stock market has taken substantial hits, housing inventory is climbing, and bank account balances are starting to fall. So, with more economic turmoil, we have to ask: will the housing market crash? And if we get a housing market crash, how bad (or good) will it be for investors? Could we see a 2008-style selloff, or should we be more prepared for small dips worth taking advantage of? Today, we’re asking two top investors these questions, one of whom literally wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing.
J Scott and James Dainard join us on today’s episode to discuss market crash predictions, scenarios, and opportunities for real estate investors. Both J and James experienced the 2008 housing market crash—an economic event almost impossible to forget. But is 2024 shaping up for a sharp decline like 2008, or will we simply see a slower real estate market like most people had expected when interest rates began to rise?
If the market DOES crash, what should you look for to take advantage, and how do you ensure you don’t get caught biting off more than you can chew? J and James break down their game plans if prices fall and why buying now could set you up for wealth ten years from now, IF you can handle the “fear” of buying when others are running from real estate.
In This Episode We Cover
New housing market “crash” predictions and how low prices could go
Why economic “fear” is rising now, and the recession indicators that are going off
Rising housing inventory and why experienced investors expected this already
The difference between the 2008 housing market crash and today
What could cause a housing crash and how to know it’s time to buy
The immense opportunities for investors that 99% of Americans will pass up
And So Much More!
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Jump to topic:
(00:00) Intro
(04:01) New Recession Fears
(14:25) Is This Like 2008?
(18:05) What Will Cause a Crash
(31:11) What to Do During a Crash
(36:56) Opportunity for Investors
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-248
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Are We in a Recession?
Episode 247
Thursday, August 29, 2024 • Duration 33:19
Are we in a recession? A lot of people certainly think so. After a surprisingly accurate recession indicator went off weeks ago, more and more Americans have begun to believe that we’re already facing an economic downturn. The problem? We rarely know we’re in a recession until we’re out of one. So, how can we be sure we’re in a recession and not just seeing a boomerang effect from the hot post-pandemic economy?
For many Americans, it sure FEELS like a recession. Unemployment has gradually increased, the cost of living has risen significantly over the past few years, and men may be buying fewer pairs of underwear (that’s actually a recession indicator). So, if we are in a recession, what should real estate investors do now to prepare so they don’t get the rug pulled on them before it’s too late? Do you sit tight or start contemplating selling properties?
Dave, Henry, and Kathy all share what they’d do in a recession, the not-so-obvious signs of a recession (or a recession in your specific industry), and whether or not they believe we’ll be in a recession over the next year. If the worst has yet to come, you’ll be able to spot the signs of a coming recession after this episode.
In This Episode We Cover
Whether or not we’re in a recession right now (and signs of one)
The one recession indicator going off that’s pointing to an economic downturn
Signs that we’re already in a recession and what we would do during one
How to deleverage yourself from riskier properties if the economy starts to slow
Whether or not a recession is still in the cards over the next year
Why it may be time to start saving once your husband/brother/nephew stops wearing new underwear
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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On The Market 238 - Recession “Yellow Flags” Emerge as Unemployment Metric Rises
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59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds
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Jump to topic:
00:00 Intro
03:08 Is This Time Different?
04:26 Recession Indicators
09:21 What Does “Recession” Mean?
20:15 What to Do During a Recession
27:38 Are We in a Recession?
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-247
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238: Recession “Yellow Flags” Emerge as Unemployment Metric Rises w/The Washington Post's Heather Long
Episode 238
Monday, July 29, 2024 • Duration 36:27
One of the most reliable recession indicators, the “Sahm Rule,” just issued a “yellow flag” for the economy. Even now, with low unemployment, high spending, and overall economic growth, we aren’t protected from a recession or economic downturn. Will the US economy be able to dodge this recession, and will the Fed be fast enough to save us from falling into a state of high unemployment and meager economic growth?
The Washington Post’s Heather Long joins us to share the latest data on the labor market, unemployment rate, Fed rate cuts, and why this particular recession indicator is going off now. First, we talk about why there is so much positivity in the job market and why most people won’t notice the cracks starting to form. With tech jobs getting slashed and government jobs growing, are we moving in the right direction?
Heather also explains a strong recession indicator, the “Sahm Rule,” and why it’s throwing up a “yellow flag” warning even with the hot job market. Finally, we’ll touch on interest rates, whether the Fed will actually come through with a rate cut this year, and how fast future rate cuts could come after the first.
In This Episode We Cover
The unemployment-based recession indicator that’s throwing up “yellow flags”
Which industries are hiring and which are firing in 2024
What the “unemployment rate” really means, and why most people get this wrong
Immigration’s HUGE effect on unemployment and how it may be skewing the numbers
The Fed’s tricky decision to make and whether rate cuts could help this situation
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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On The Market 168 - How to Prepare for a Recession in 2024
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Read More from Heather
Grab the Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”
Jump to topic:
(00:00) Intro
(01:06) Good Time to Get a Job?
(04:50) Unemployment Rate Explained
(07:59) Who's Losing Their Job?
(10:21) Recession "Yellow Flags" Emerge
(16:56) Immigration's Huge Effect
(21:05) Spending Still Going Strong?
(24:16) The Fed's Rate Cut Plans
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-238
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148: Microchips, Chinese Real Estate "Rot," and a Global Economic Forecast w/The Motley Fool’s Bill Mann
Episode 148
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 • Duration 37:37
The Chinese real estate crisis could mean much more for the global economy than you think. One economic giant falls, and other interconnected countries, like the United States, feel the shockwaves. As more and more bad news (or LACK of news) comes out of China, we have one question: how will our housing market, stock market, and government be affected? The Motley Fool’s Bill Mann is on to help answer.
Bill works as a “treasure hunter,” searching for underpriced but financially sound stock investments for all of The Motley Fool’s subscribers. As a result, Bill’s research goes far beyond the borders of the United States. He’s constantly looking at global markets and industries to see which could be on track for a meteoric rise.
In today’s episode, Bill walks us through China’s economic crisis, their “rotting” real estate, and what happens if they continue into a deflationary spiral. Then, we talk about Taiwan’s chip manufacturing monopoly and what would happen if a global conflict threatened this industry’s safety? Finally, Bill gives us a global economic forecast with his two cents on interest rates, the “economy of the future,” and the USD “wrecking ball.”
In This Episode We Cover
The spiraling Chinese economy and why their real estate is beginning to “rot”
Chip manufacturing and the most important technological industry you’ve never thought about
Taiwan’s semiconductor monopoly and why the US is going to great lengths to protect it
The USD “wrecking ball” and how a strong dollar could hurt global economies
One country that could become the “economy of the future”
An interest rate prediction and whether or not Bill thinks the Fed has any more room to hike rates
And So Much More!
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147: Top Multifamily Investors’ Advice for Buyers in 2023? DON’T Do It! w/Brian Burke and Matt Faircloth
Episode 147
Monday, October 9, 2023 • Duration 01:01:37
The multifamily real estate market went from bad to worse. Interest rates are still at record highs, cap rates have somehow stayed compressed, rent growth looks bleak at best, and sellers refuse to budge on their prices. As a result, inexperienced operators are picking up so-called “deals” to shop around to their investors—and they could be walking into a massive financial trap without even knowing it.
If you want one hundred and one reasons NOT to buy multifamily right now, Brian Burke is here to help. But, if you want a counteracting force of optimism as to why you should pursue multifamily properties, Matt Faircloth can balance out this debate. These investors have owned and managed THOUSANDS of apartment units, but NEITHER of them has bought in over a year. Brian even went as far as selling most of his portfolio right before the commercial crash, a move many thought was far from wise at the time.
These two time-tested multifamily experts come on today to talk about the commercial real estate crash, the “chaos” that could ensue over the next year, why inexperienced syndicators are about to bite the dust, and why multifamily investing may not be the move to make in 2023. Think this is just a bunch of scare tactics to keep you away from good deals? Tune in to be surprised.
In This Episode We Cover:
The multifamily market crash and why sellers are STILL asking for all-time-high prices
Risky real estate debt and what you MUST know about commercial financing before you buy another property
What Brian and Matt MUST see in a property before they send in an offer
The “wave of foreclosures” that won’t come and deals being done in the shadows
What to do RIGHT now as the market is in shambles to make the most money in the future
Cap rate compression and why these high multifamily prices can’t last
And So Much More!
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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-147
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146: 4 Economic Triggers That Could Send Us Into a Recession
Episode 146
Friday, October 6, 2023 • Duration 43:50
A 2024 recession looks a lot more likely than it did just a few months ago. While many Americans were hoping for a “soft landing,” that might not be what we get as the economy hits a breaking point. With the government only temporarily saved from a shutdown, auto workers going on strike for cost of living adjustments, student loans resuming, and oil prices skyrocketing as production slows down, we may be forced to enter into a recession.
On the flipside, GDP remains strong, Americans are still spending, and unemployment is historically low. While this could quickly change, it begs the question: is the American consumer stronger than high interest rates, rising prices, and the threat of an unknown future economy? We brought on the full On the Market panel to give us their take on where we’re heading and which economic threats could bring down the economy.
We’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the recent UAW strike that is putting a bottleneck on transportation, the government shutdown that risks millions going unpaid, student loan resumption that could force Americans to forgo optional spending, and an exacerbated oil price increase that is hurting the everyday American (and especially Californians).
In This Episode We Cover:
Four economic factors that could force us into a 2024 recession
NAR’s recent scandal and why Redfin has decided to finally cut ties
Student loan payment resumption and a massive cut in Americans' discretionary spending
The UAW strike that could hurt traditional car manufacturers even more
A looming government shutdown and the direct effects it has on the markets
Increased oil prices and why your deliveries, construction projects, and renovations could cost even more
And So Much More!
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Is College Worth the Cost? w/Preston Cooper
Why the Fed is Steering Us Straight Towards the Next Great Recession
Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-146
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145: 60% of Homes Classified as “Unaffordable,” How Long Can This Last? w/Matthew Gardner
Episode 145
Monday, October 2, 2023 • Duration 40:26
The housing market is now aggressively out of reach for first-time home buyers. Nearly sixty percent of homes for sale are unaffordable to the average American. What’s causing such a lack of affordability? High mortgage rates, meager supply, and baby boomers refusing to sell their single-family homes (seriously). These factors have created a housing market where “forced renter households” will become the norm…but not for long.
According to Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate, there’s at least some hope on the horizon. Mathew knows the solution to this almost unfathomable unaffordability issue, and it’s much simpler than most people think. In this episode, he talks about the primary driver of high home prices, the factors causing so many Americans to rent, and why we can’t repair this market using the same housing market “incentives” that worked in the past.
And, as someone who works regularly with large-scale investors, Mathew has some advice for those still trying to invest in a market where profits seem improbable. When will mortgage rates head down? How long will unaffordability last? And what’s the solution Matthew thinks will solve it all? We’ll get into all that in this episode!
In This Episode We Cover:
The SINGLE factor that’s causing so much unaffordability in the housing market
Home price updates and a surprising statistic about homes for sale
Mortgage rate predictions and whether or not we’ll see them fall next year
“Forced renter household” formation and whether America will become a renter nation
Crucial advice for ANYONE who’s buying real estate in 2023 (and if you should wait)
And So Much More!
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Housing is Unaffordable, But Could It Actually Get Worse?
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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-145
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144: Simple Deals We're Doing That Are Making MASSIVE Profits
Episode 144
Friday, September 29, 2023 • Duration 34:45
If you want to know how to make millions of dollars in real estate, skip the rental properties, renovations, and rehabs and go straight for this type of “land investing.” Our own Kathy Fettke is using this type of deal to make MILLIONS of dollars without building a single home or managing ANY tenants. This is all from one piece of land, where Kathy simply needs to put down just under five percent of the total purchase price, and in a few years, she’ll walk away with millions in profits. What type of deal is she doing, and how can you do it too?
We’re back with another deal show as we dive deep into three real estate deals that our expert guests have on their hands. First, Henry will show off a simple house flip that will net him thirteen times his money when he sells. Then, Kathy will uncover the rarely talked about but unbelievably lucrative type of land investing that can make you millions. Finally, James hits on a “dense” flip/development deal that will turn one home into many and give his team almost half a million dollars in profit!
If you want to submit your deal for a future show, post it on the On the Market forums where you can get other investor takes!
In This Episode We Cover:
The type of land investing that can make you MILLIONS in just a few years
Cosmetic flips and why now may be a low-risk time to get in the market
Why “dense” zoning can make you MUCH more money on your next investment
“Deferred interest” and how to cut down on high holding costs
Why the average age of a home seller in 2023 is NOT what you’d expect
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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Share Your Deal on the “On the Market” Forum
Read More Home Buyer and Housing Market Stats
Dealing Dirt: Is Raw Land the Most Underrated Asset of 2023?
Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-144
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143: How the Hotel vs. Airbnb Battle Completely Flipped w/Jamie Lane
Episode 143
Monday, September 25, 2023 • Duration 44:34
The hotel vs. Airbnb battle may have just completely flipped. Post-pandemic, it seemed as if short-term rentals were the only places worth staying when traveling. Having a house with multiple beds, a kitchen, a private yard, and parking was considered too good for hotels to compete with. But, as the world reopened, travelers got tired of cleaning up after themselves and taking out the trash, and hotels began to claw back market share.
With the idea of a short-term rental “collapse” constantly being pushed throughout mainstream media, we brought on AirDNA’s Jamie Lane to give us the facts about how the hotel vs. Airbnb battle is going. Jamie walks us through some surprising statistics about short-term rental occupancy, why things are starting to change in a post-pandemic world, the real estate markets seeing the worst (and best) performance, and how hotels are faring.
For those who have seen their short-term rental markets start to struggle with so much supply and not enough demand, Jamie has some insider-only tips on finding smaller markets where you can still make a decent profit and how owning an international vacation rental may be your best bet as Americans leave the road-tripping and domestic flights behind.
In This Episode We Cover:
The short-term rental “collapse” and why occupancy is starting to fall
The markets experiencing “normalization” as domestic travel becomes less popular
Must-have short-term rental amenities that can almost guarantee you bookings
Hotels vs. hosts and why Airbnb is losing market share to free buffet breakfasts
Short-term rental regulations and how bans will impact hosts in every real estate market
And So Much More!
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#Airbnbust: The Fall Of Short-Term Rentals
Hosts vs. Hotels: Is There Still Room in The Short-Term Rental Market?
Has the Short-Term Rental Goldmine Run Dry? w/Jamie Lane
Access Up-to-Date Short-Term Rental Data with AirDNA
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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-143
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142: Did High Interest Rates Kill House Flipping? w/Jessie Rodriguez and Tarl Yarber
Episode 142
Friday, September 22, 2023 • Duration 53:18
House flipping profits are off the charts, so why are so many house flippers leaving the market? Top flippers like James Dainard have seen their profits almost double, EVEN with today’s high interest rates. Wouldn’t now be the perfect time to take on more flips than ever? The experts say “no.” In fact, many of them have stepped away from flipping entirely, worried that the risk FAR outweighs the reward.
To give us a more rounded view of this real estate market are Jessie Rodriguez and “I hate real estate but love money” investor Tarl Yarber. Jessie and Tarl have done HUNDREDS of flips throughout the past decade, but now, they’re doing fewer flips than ever before. With high holding costs, an uncertain economic future, and a greater risk of failure, now might not be the best time to start your flipping empire.
But if you have experience, money, or time, you could make some serious returns if you are willing to take the risk. James, Jessie, and Tarl talk about what they’re looking for in today’s market, how to instantly lower your cost of labor on any flip, why so many expert flippers are leaving the business, and why you should “dollar-cost average” in real estate investing.
In This Episode We Cover:
The state of house flipping in 2023 and whether or not now is the time to jump in
Interest rates, holding costs, and how much you can expect money to cost
Why “quick flips” are FAR safer now than extensive, heavy rehab house flips
Why Tarl quit flipping and the signs he’s waiting for BEFORE he gets back into the game
Labor costs and how Jessie INSTANTLY cut down his rehab budget
Dollar-cost averaging in real estate and whether or not it’s a smart move for rookies
And So Much More!
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Unbelievable Returns from Flipping This New Type of Real Estate w/Jessie Rodriguez
Flipping Houses: How to Get Started and Everything You Should Know
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Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-142
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