The week, our On the Ledge crew got bigger!

We're excited to add former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne and former Ontario P.C. Leader Tim Hudak to the Roundtable with veteran pollster John Wright, Queen's Park Commentator Keith Leslie and Story Studio Network's Dave Trafford. 

In this episode, the crew "digs" into Doug Ford's call for a Brampton-to-Markham tunnel under the 401.
Is it just a back-of-the-napkin pipe dream or big thinking and big ideas when we need them most?

What's to be learned after Toronto school kids went on a field trip that ended up at a pro-palestinian protest?

The province's long term care fix is short term pain. Bill 7 is designed to free up scarce hospital beds but it's forcing patients into LTC homes of the government's choosing OR it's fining families $400 a day.

And the premier's answer to homeless encampments is "get off your A.S.S." and get a job!

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In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast:

John Wright says the Ford government may have won the battle but the union got a better deal than they demanded in the first place, despite a disastrous communications strategy

Or...was the contract package already baked into the government's plans even before the workers walked off the job on July 5th?

It was a long term win for Doug Ford. But he and his team keep laying rakes down and stepping on them when it comes to the Ontario Place rebuild plans.Seems the premier is shocked to learn that underground parking on the Lakeshore is not only expensive, it's likely to FLOOD when we get the epic rain events we saw in July.

We also touched on Deputy Premier "What's her name?" announcing plans to allow expand pharmacists role in treating ailments. Minister Jones REFUSED to say how much the program will cost.

And, as we watch crews sift thru the charred remains of Jasper, where are governments, at all levels, in all regions with their commitment to investing in smart forest management?
The wildfires across Canada are only intensifying and all were left with are a "thoughts and prayers" response from first ministers and ministers responsible for climate change and the environment.

The Carbon Tax isn't a solution. Neither are heat pumps and EVs

Read Jamie Stephen's LinkedIn post if you want to understand how government should be responding and investing. 
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jamesstephen_jasper-faces-significant-loss-of-buildings-activity-7222187533596540929-fO0H?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios


AND..BTW...
OTL is going on hiatus for the month of August. John, Keith and Dave will be back in your podcast feed after Labour Day!

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In this edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast:

We pick through the entrails of two by-election wins for the Progressive Conservatives.

Two things are clear:

1. There's no "call for change" at Queen's Park. Are we on the verge if the next Big Blue Machine era of politics in Ontario?
2. If Bonnie Crombie couldn't muster enough attention, support or money to win the race in Milton, what does that say for the future of the Ontario Liberal Party?

Oh ya,,,,Go LEAFS!


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It's been a minute since the Ledge rose for the Christmas break at Queen's Park. We will be back at the roundtable in a couple of weeks with the usual suspects parsing the provincial politics in Ontario. But today, we have a treat for you. John Wright and I sat down Thursday of this week, the morning after the federal Tories dispatched Erin O'Toole and discussed the future of the Conservative Party of Canada. It's a new podcast I launched this month called The Daily Brief. Check it out.

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It's been more than a week since we knew the omicron variant had arrived in Canada. We know the positive cases are among those who have travelled internationally. Do we know their vaccine status? Nobody seems to know. Why? Because, it seems nobody's asking. The Queen's Park Press Gallery floated through an entire Q&A session with the CMOH Dr. Kieran Moore and no one asked whether the patients were vaccinated. Instead the bulk of the newser was taken up with questions about the possibility of future lockdowns, testing procedures, calls for more travel restrictions and other "process" issues. Needless to say, we learned little from that line of questioning and missed the obvious issues.   

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It's always the coverup that causes a crisis! This week, the On The Ledge crew with Sabrina Nanji from the Queen's Park Observer, weigh in on the Wiarton Willie coverup.  Oh ya, and we get around to the $10 a week Child Care plans, the pediatric vaccine rollout and the 4-13 is the project that just keeps on giving Ford Nation a headache.

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Put up your hand if you understand the COVID test plan for school kids over the Christmas holiday? Seeing none...we move onto the next item of Suck and Blow.  Seriously! It is becoming increasingly wearisome to have to figure out what's driving the Public Health strategy at Queen's Park. I'm all for connecting dots if need be, but this week we're left, AGAIN, having to draw our own dots!  

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford has commanded the political high ground by creating a political distraction - namely Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass. They are to the media and the general public what a SQUIRREL is to Dug the Dog! Love or hate the idea of expanding a ring road around the GTA, it's turned out to be a stroke of political brilliance. Ford and company have created a ballot question while, at the same time, forcing the Opposition into a corner. If they criticize the highway plans, they're the guys who say "NO". If they approve, they're losers among their base.  

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He passed away in August of this year and he was memorialized this week by family, friends and political colleagues of all stripes. Former Ontario Premier Bill Davis is remembered as a politician whose success came from his innate ability to include the opposition in his policy and legislative process. The service happened the same day the Ford government unveiled its Fall Economic Statement. What was in it? What was missing? One thing is clear, the Progressive Conservatives are saying "YES!" to electioneering.  

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Ontario's Minister for Long Term Care tabled the Ford government's bill outlining the province's latest promise to address the needs of our elders and most vulnerable. More money for more  inspectors, more money for more staff training, more more of more... But what good are more inspectors if the standard of living in an LTC isn't properly addressed? What good is more tuition support for PSW training if there are fewer and fewer people interested in doing a poor paying job under the glare of public scrutiny in the face of lousy working conditions?

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At least it came with a Q&A opportunity. The Doug Ford government tells us what we already know, unveiling its cautious plans to step out of STEP 3. But Ford Nation still struggles with its obsession with the fringes when it comes to vaccine policies, voting down Opposition motions to make vaccines mandatory in the healthcare and education sectors. Meanwhile, hospitals and police forces across the province are already suspending non-vaxxed workers and preparing to fire those who don't comply with vaccine requirements.  

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Great to have Sabrina Nanji at the Queen's Park Observer join this week's edition of On The Ledge. The province of Ontario has started rolling out its proof of vaccine QR code initiative. But it won't be implemented until October 22nd. The Ford government says they want to make sure businesses and individuals have enough lead time to load their QR codes before they go into use. But the overwhelming and, as of yet, unsatisfactorily answered question remains: why didn't the province include restaurants, bars and gyms in the plan to allow for full capacity? The announcement was a Friday Dump just before the Thanksgiving weekend and there has been no reason given for the discrepancy in the re-opening policy. The government will only say it wants to move slowly. Meanwhile, restaurant owners are losing their businesses.

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Really? The province of Ontario decides major sporting events, cinemas and theatres are among the blessed sites that are now allowed to have full capacity. That means the Leafs and Raptors will be playing to full houses.  But the "rules" still don't apply to restaurants, bars or gyms.  Needless to say, the out-of-the-(Tory)-blue announcement prompts plenty of questions. But there's nobody to ask. The Chief Medical Officer of Health only offered his proclamation by way of a news release/statement on a Friday before a long weekend. We can't even ask anyone this week because the LEDGE isn't sitting. (Yes, you are correct. They only just got back to work last Monday but this is the Thanksgiving week, so it means they MUST take it off as a constituency week.) Here's hoping MPP's are getting an earful from their restaurant, bar and gym owning constituents.

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In this week's edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast:

We remember the legendary broadcaster Bob Cole and then dig in on the latest stories coming out of Queen's Park including:

The Ford Nation reversal of the week.

The fallout from the NOT GUILTY verdict in the trial of Umar Zumeer - accused of murdering Toronto police Det-Constable Jeffery Northrup.

And would the premier seriously consider calling an early election?

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Chantal Hebert at the Toronto Star summed it up best on Election Night. "It was an election that nobody wanted and nobody got what they wanted." You can't even say we ended up with the status quo because the campaign only served to make politics more divisive at a time when the country cries out for leadership and vision to ensure we recover physically, mentally and economically from the COVID-19 pandemic. Questions: Who among the federal leaders will live to fight another campaign? Is Doug Ford the answer to the Conservative Party of Canada's inability to breakthrough in Ontario? And, why exactly are Liberals upset with Kevin Vuong?  

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These final hours of the federal election campaign have made things clear as mud. The polls have consistently suggested the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat among decided voters. The only confident prediction is we will have a minority government when all is said and done.  Who will sit in the PM's chair? Not at all clear. Meantime, the Liberals have dumped Kevin Vuong as their candidate in a downtown Toronto riding after the Toronto Star reported he'd been charged with sexual assault in 2019. It's important to note the Crown withdrew the charges. The case never went to trial. The timing of the story is one thing. But it also calls into question the journalistic ethics at the Star. 

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Is this an all or nothing campaign for Erin O'Toole? Does he have to win the September 20the federal election to keep his job at leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?  Matt Gurney at the National Post joins us for this episode of The WRIT Race. He suggests O'Toole's term as party leader may be short lived unless he can boast "some kind of win", whether that's winning a minority or weakening Trudeau's minority.  "O'Toole is out on a moderate, eastern, centrist Canadian limb for a party whose last 100 seats are a rock solid, often rural, western Canadian base. If the Easterner can't deliver the bacon, I don't think he lasts long."

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It's not that silly a question when you consider two things. First, most Canadians didn't want this election to begin with. So, to see the Trudeau Liberals barely survive with a slimmer minority, (not the majority the prime minister coveted), will call his "mandate" into question. Second, it leaves it up to a wounded Trudeau to mop up the divisiveness of the campaign while coping with a new year that will be dominated by the fourth (fifth?) wave of the pandemic. Brett James, Senior Counsel at Sussex Strategy Group in Toronto offers his insights.  

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Yes, the tone has changed on the federal campaign trail. And that may have been predictable. But there was a nasty moment when protestors began making inappropriate comments about Justin Trudeau's wife Sophie. Deb Hutton says that's not new, but it doesn't make it right. Deb advised a couple of premiers in Ontario, worked on leadership and election campaigns and experienced campaigning as a spouse when her husband, Tim Hudak, led the Progressive Conservatives in the 2011 and 2014 Ontario elections.

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This federal campaign has been dominated by wedge issues, personal attacks, and a disaster of a debate. Where is the vision? Where is the deep discussion about the challenges and opportunities facing Canada? Scott White, CEO and Editor in Chief at The Conversation Canada, joins John Wright and Dave Trafford in this edition of The WRIT Race.

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The english federal leaders' debate was, in the words of Dana Bash, "a shit show."  I heard "pundits" complaining that we always complain about the format and never focus on the substance of the debate. That's because the format is the problem. It doesn't allow for substance, let alone debate. The time has come to either overhaul the system, (take it out of the hands of the media consortium), or scrap the debates altogether. 

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Warren Kinsella is our guest on this edition of The Writ Race. He offers his insights on debate prep and whether, whether he wins or loses, Justin Trudeau is likely to lead the Liberals into the next election campaign.  Kinsella doesn't think he wants the job anymore.

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On today's episode of The WRIT Race, we're joined by Laura Babcock at Power Group. In a normal campaign, we'd be focussing on the french and english consortium debates. But that's been overshadowed by the increased harassment and violence that has target the Liberal campaign. John Wright points out this coincides with slow but steady gains in the polls by the People's Party of Canada.  Has this underlying anger highlighted by anti-vaccine demonstrators and opposition to the vaccine "passport" set a new dynamic for the final two weeks of the federal campaign?

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The french and english "consortium" federal leaders' debates will be broadcast this week. Bob Pickard, Principal at Signal Leadership Communications assesses the campaign messaging and tactics as the race to election day tightens. And Nik Nanos and his Nanos Research team have been doing daily polling. Nik says we're at a point in the campaign where an issue that may not be a top priority for Canadians can shift voting preferences in some key areas of the country.  

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In this week's edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast:

• Happy 3rd birthday to Story Studio Network!
• Doug Ford goes on an operatic RANT about gas price hikes and manages to lay it all at the feet of Justin Trudeau and Bonnie Crombie!
• All four provincial party leaders want the Speaker to reverse his refusal to allow the keffiyeh to be worn in the legislature. 
• The housing file keeps getting more and more complicated and that's driving up the cost of home building.
• Vic Fideli doubles down on government insistence that the addition of Long Term Care beds qualify as "new home" builds.
• The Transportation Minister may need whiplash therapy. He was forced to make a fast and strenuous about face mere hours after announcing service reductions on the Metrolinx UP Express!
• It's hard to imagine we don't have a gambling problem in Ontario when we learn 1.3 million Ontarians bet $63 billion online in fiscal 2023-24.

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This morning we woke up to news that Ontario Premier Doug Ford has decided to prorogue the provincial legislature. The Ledge won’t sit again until October 4th - two weeks after the federal election. Keith Leslie weighs in on Ford's strategy. And Thomas Mulcair, former leader of the Official Opposition in Ottawa, joined to assess the Labour Day effect on the national campaign. 

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Anne Lagace-Dowson joins The Writ Race #cdnpoli #podcast to offer a view from Quebec, the morning after the first federal leaders' debate in the 2021 campaign. Did Erin O'Toole's performance move the momentum needle for the Conservatives? Did Justin Trudeau do anything that would turn the tide for his Liberal fortunes?

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Erin Trafford and Amanda Galbraith join us for this special edition of The Writ Race to talk about the role women should be playing in Canadian politics. And we also explore the idea that Rural Canada is increasingly being left out of the political discussion in this country.  

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Amanda Galbraith is back! So, another F-Sharp warning is in order:) We're now half way through the federal election campaign in Canada and the latest seat modelling suggests the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a dead heat. It suggests to Amanda that the televised debates will matter. It may well make the difference in motivating voters to go to the polls.

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Bob Richardson is a longtime Liberal Party organizer and strategist. He's critical of the Trudeau campaign to date but says there's still time for recovery. It will be a fight between Trudeau and Conservative leader Erin O'Toole. Bob says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh isn't ready for prime time. Jack Layton and Thomas Mulcair did the "gut work" to put the party on solid footing. And "this guy's doing TikTok videos."

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It's DAY 15 for John Wright and me on our daily #cdnpoli podcast - The WRIT Race. A few things you'll learn from today's show. 1) Writs don't get "dropped". 2) John give us a master class on how polls work 3) Justin Trudeau is emerging as a Ballot Question in this campaign. Take 20 minutes. Let us know what you think!

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Mere hours after a suicide bomb attack at the Kabul airport, Conservative leader Erin O'Toole seemed to be heeding John Wright's advice on how to respond to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Liberal campaign insiders are telling the Toronto Star there is no plan to shift direction or hit the reset button on the campaign plan. But Keith Leslie suggested the Trudeau campaign would attempt to Ontario Premier Doug Ford into the campaign. Shortly after we wrapped our recording session, the Liberal leader was taunting Ford on Twitter over his refusal to order vaccine certificates.  

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John Wright says the bombings and ISIS attacked near the Kabul airport Thursday afternoon have squarely centred "Afghanistan" as the ballot question that will define the Canadian federal election campaign. And that raises a critical question for the Liberal team. How does Justin Trudeau answer the Afghanistan question? Is this Erin O'Toole's time to breakthrough, not only as the Conservative leader but a leader who is a veteran?

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We engage in an unvarnished discussion with Amanda Galbraith about the state of the federal election campaign. (NOTE: Feminism is her second favourite F-word:) Amanda says we're into the "meh" phase but don't think for a minute that what happens in week's two and three aren't going to affect the outcome. She points to Women and Gender Equality Minister Maryam Monsef referring to the Taliban as "brothers". It's an example of a Liberal campaign that can't get out of its own way.

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Sussex Strategy co-founder, Brett James joins John Wright and Dave Trafford in the DAY 9 edition of The WRIT Race. In this episode we talk about everything from Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole's efforts to ingratiate himself to Canadian voters, even if that risks criticism from the right-leaning element of the party's core to the effect of digital campaigns. And we close by remembering Rolling Stones legend, Charlie Watts.

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In this week's edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politic podcast:

We're joined by Tim Hudak, CEO at the Ontario Real Estate Association, tp talk about the housing initiatives annoucned at Queen's Park and in Ottawa this week.

Tim says there've been some positive steps taken, such as increasing the amortization period and providing assistance for modular homes and apartment construction.

However, he also highlights the gaps and the need for more bold and comprehensive solutions.

The discussion touches on topics like the role of municipalities, the impact of land transfer tax, the importance of leveling the playing field for first-time homebuyers, and the need for a balanced approach to housing and employment lands.

the competing announcements has everyone "talking housing" but will they do enough for help meet the housing goals by 2031?


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ICYMI: John Wright and Dave Trafford did the LIVE STREAM video version of the WRIT Race on Monday afternoon. Here's the audio from the show, if that suits you better. Otherwise, we'd encourage you to check out the YouTube show here. We're also broadcasting on Dave's Facebook page. We plan to do the video version every Monday over the course of the campaign and on Election Night. On Day 8, the Liberals get their hands slapped by Twitter for manipulating an Erin O'Toole video.

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David Skok is the CEO and Editor-in-Chief of The Logic. He joins us in this edition of the WRIT Race to discuss the media's role in covering the federal election campaign in Canada. And asks whether we're focused on the things that really matter. "This will be an election campaign framed as a referendum on Canada’s response to a global pandemic, with parties jockeying for position on how the governing Liberals did or didn’t manage the crisis. But I hope this election will also surface hard questions about the direction of the country."

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In this weekend edition of The WRIT Race, Tony Chapman, host and producer of Chatter That Matters, says the election of Tim Houston's Progressive Conservative in Nova Scotia should signal a shift in how major parties approach election campaigns. Bob Pickard, at Signal Leadership Communications, says the O'Toole Conservatives and Singh New Democrats won the communications battle over Justin Trudeau in week one. And John Cameron at Dalhousie University says some of the most experienced and important voices in Canada aren't being heard during the election campaign.

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Today on The WRIT Race - the daily #cndpoli #podcast, John Wright and Dave Trafford are joined by Keith Leslie and Erin Trafford, who offer up insights into what happened in the #NovaScotia election. Also, will the federal Liberal party be able to resist running against Doug Ford @fordnation in Ontario? And we highlight a Master Class by Sean O'Shea at Global News Toronto on how-to-hold -political-parties-accountable. 

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Today on The WRIT Race daily #podcast, John Wright and Dave Trafford ponder whether there can be such a thing as a national election platform when the needs of Canadians in Atlanta Canada are different from the issues faced in the prairies and the territories. Also, how will mail-in voting/voter turnout affect the outcome in some key ridings on election day?

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Yes, it's early in the federal election campaign in Canada, but there are already indications that the traditional Liberal issues aren't top of mind as priorities for most Canadians. John Wright SVP at Maru Public Opinion says the NDP and Conservatives continue to frame this campaign in terms of affordability. John says external events like Afghanistan and the Progressive Conservative provincial election win in Nova Scotia have set Justin Trudeau back on his heels.

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Day 2 of the federal election campaign in Canada and the agenda has been overtaken by the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Afghanistan. The Taliban's lighting like win over Afghan forces that put up no defence of the capital Kabul has dominated the domestic political debate and has the Liberal leader on his back foot. Justin Trudeau is being forced to display leadership, to govern and to develop policy on a major international file he can't control. It means he's distracted, (at best), from his re-election focus while the other leaders define the ballot question.

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Hey there!  I know you come here for your dose of Ontario politics and we usually focus our attention on Queen's Park. But for the next 36 days, federal politics will be Ontario politics.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it official yesterday, we are going to the polls on September 20th. So, John Wright and I have decided to return to the daily podcast during the writ period. (That's the way this show started when the 2018 election was called in Ontario). Buckle up. I don't know if this will be the most important elections we've seen in Canada, but it's likely to rank among the most interesting.

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Okay, it's been all but shuttered since 2012, so the redevelopment plans for Ontario Place on Toronto's waterfront are long overdue. But, it would appear that plan is getting some pretty good reviews. The back-to-school-plan - not so much. Premier Doug Ford had promised to present a comprehensive plan before the end of July. Well, they missed that deadline. We're told to expect details the first week of August - mere weeks before the kids are supposed to be heading back to class.  

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In this week's edition of On the Ledge, Ontario Real Estate Association and past Progressive Conservative leader in Ontario, Tim Hudak joins the podcast. Tim talks about his recommendations to get the province's tourism industry back to business. Does that mean we need to embrace a vaccine "passport" to ensure travellers and workers feel comfortable and confident to make that happen? Meanwhile, Ontario's Minister of Children, Community and Social Services and Manitoba's new Minister of Indigenous Reconciliation and Northern Affairs show us the way NOT to make your media debut in your new role.

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In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast:

It's been a busy "media week" for Doug Ford - making almost daily annoucements about government spending plans one week after the 2024 budget was tabled at Queen's Park.

But announcements aside, the PCs are spending a good deal of time and political capital defining Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie as the Carbon Tax Queen and re-defining Premier Ford as a guy who listens to the people when his government "gets it wrong" versus a leader who has spent two years of this mandate flip-flopping on key plans and policies of his government.

As noted in last week's show, the Ontario government has commited to historically record spending in the latest budget - beating the record spending promises tabled in 2023. Doug Ford's government has commited to more than $420 billion in spending over the last two budgets. The question is, how has that record spending improved life for Ontarians? 

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Do you suppose Ontario retailers, barbers and nail salons will simply ignore the rules and open up for business on Canada Day? Perhaps the better question is, how many businesses will move to Step 2 on July 2nd (as originally planned) because it makes little or no sense to open up on Wednesday only to have to close down for the July 1st stat? We also wonder whether Premier Doug Ford has misplayed his hand bouncing longtime Tory stalwarts from his cabinet. And what action does the province need to take against the backdrop of the Residential Schools tragedy?

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This week on the podcast with John Wright, Keith Leslie and Dave Trafford, the province is on the verge of blowing through its vaccination targets, (will the Ford government accelerate plans to open the economy?), the NDP is the first out of the gate with campaign ads, the Tories have named their platform build team,   AND.. Oh ya, while we're recoding the show, Keith gets a text telling us we may have a cabinet shuffle by the end of business on Friday!

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford was ready to use the Notwithstanding Clause of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms to cut Toronto City Council by half, bu the Court of Appeal spoil his historic flirtation when a three judge panel said he could do just that. Now, he's ready to lob the constitutional nuke so he can restrict third party spending during an election campaign. And with few exceptions, nobody seems too fussed by it.

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