NAB Morning Call – Details, episodes & analysis

Monday 2nd September 2024

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European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday.

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Friday 16th August 2024

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Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets?

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Wednesday 21st August 2024

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It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal. 

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Tuesday 7th May 2024

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The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data.

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