Moving Markets – Details, episodes & analysis

After US Treasuries and the S&P 500 index advanced for a fourth consecutive month in August, investors brace for September, a typically challenging month for markets, ahead of crucial US jobs data due on Friday. A significant shift to the far right in German state elections yesterday sent shockwaves through the European political landscape. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and shares his outlook for the US dollar.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

07:21 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Nvidia did not meet lofty earnings expectations and its stock fell 6%, while revised Q2 US GDP figures beat expectations at 3%, meaning more stocks rose than fell on the S&P 500. US Treasury yields rose on the better economic data, although Treasuries are on track for a fourth month of gains. In Europe, inflation fell and Germany's DAX rose to near all-time highs. Asian equities are higher, led by China on reports ofincreased support for the ailing housing market, while Tokyo inflation data supports the case for further interest rate increases there. Today's key data will be the core PCE inflation figures - the US Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses whether we have seen the end of the dollar's weakness.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

08:48 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

12:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Equity markets rebounded strongly last week, driven by tame inflation data, stabilising macro data, and solid earnings. Quant funds are expected to rebuild their positions, and corporate America is buying the dip, with record orders for share buybacks. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about why he thinks the recent bounce is an early start to the year-end rally.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:03 Technical Analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

13:00 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

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Markets had a difficult start to the second quarter last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance for 3 months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices led to growing concerns about inflation. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday has led investors to continue to price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing yields on government bonds to key levels. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 4.5% is an important level for 10-year US Treasury yields.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:10 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Markets took a sharp risk-off turn in late US trading yesterday. The main catalyst was rising tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rallying above USD 90/bbl for the first time since October, which in turn added to existing fears about inflation. In Switzerland, inflation figures for March once again surprised to the downside, which put pressure on the Swiss franc. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what he expects for the safe-haven currency going forward and why he expects some currency crosses to continue to trade rangebound.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

11:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the fact that he reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, explains the different narratives at play in the oil market and what they might mean for the future trajectory of the oil price, and Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, makes the case for his upgrade of global industrial stocks to Overweight.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

06:09 Oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:05 Industrials upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)

14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The second quarter is off to a rocky start for global equities as sticky inflation data and strong economic figures have pushed bond yields higher and their prices lower, weighing on a stock market that has so far ignored the repricing of central bank rate cuts in recent months. The only asset currently seeing an upside seems to be commodities, with oil hitting a five-month high and gold reaching a record high yesterday. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for investors right now.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:10 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)

10:52 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Strong US manufacturing data, pointing to expansion for the first time in over a year, pushed US Treasury yields higher and stocks lower, albeit in light trading. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade higher, almost on a daily basis. But Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says investors should favour productive assets as momentum remains strong in many parts of the market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

05:56 Technical analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)

09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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The equity market rally is continuing ahead of the Easter break, while fixed income markets are a little less euphoric following Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s comments that recent economic data does not warrant as many interest rate cuts as expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, argues that sentiment in the gold market is overly bullish.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:17 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

While there are still a few trading days left in the quarter, equity trading already seems to be driven by end-of-quarter positioning. Overnight in Asia, Japanese stocks rose as the yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in around 34 years, while the rest of Asia struggled for momentum. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to discuss the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision and what it means for Swiss franc-denominated bonds.

00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

01:06 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:39 CHF bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)

10:18 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.