Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped – Details, episodes & analysis

The team welcomes Brendan La Cerda, a Moody’s Analytics colleague and U.S. fiscal policy expert, to unpack the implications of a Trump or Harris victory. The divergent outcomes for Asia are significant in this too-close-to-call race.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The team welcome their colleague Heron Lim to discuss all things Hong Kong, including the implications of China’s plethora of stimulus announcements. Also in the spotlight are China’s poor company profits, Hong Kong’s housing market and fed rate cuts. Steve finally goes first with “what’s your stat” …and it’s a doozy. 

Today's Guest: Heron Lim, Moody's Analytics

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Is China putting all its eggs in one basket with its manufacturing led recovery? Households are struggling as property market moves south and youth unemployment remains painfully high. Steve is the pessimist of the group, while Harry and Katrina are more hopeful the third plenum in July will be “chockers” with reforms. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The Asia-Pacific economy has accelerated so far this year from a weak fourth quarter. But inflation is improving inconsistently across the region. And in fact, two central banks have raised interest rates recently. In this environment, who is an optimist and who is a pessimist? Steve and Katrina take one side as Stefan and Harry disagree. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode, the team dives into the heart of China's latest economic stimulus policies. Harry is optimistic that this time is different, and households are finally getting direct support. Katrina, however, leads with her usual pessimism but tries to offset the negativity with a bad economist joke. Join us as we dissect whether China's new economic measures mark a genuine turning point or if caution should still prevail.

For more from the Moody’s Analytics team take a free trial to the Economic View. 

Related research:

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408914/AsiaPacific-Weekly-Highlights-and-Preview-4-October-2024

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408913/China-Chartbook-PMIs-Profits-and-Promises-of-Support

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Southeast Asia enjoyed resilience during the tightening cycle of monetary policy, but economy-specific differences remain critical. Moody’s economist and Southeast Asia expert Denise Cheok joins the team to delve into the details. Currency appreciation, surprise rate cuts, and the upcoming U.S. election keep the team on their toes. Steve is optimistic that inflation is “whipped.”

Today's Guest: Denise Cheok, Moody's Analytics

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Steve, Stefan and Harry jump into the everchanging world of global trade. The team explore recent trends in Asia, untangling the region’s interwoven supply chains and taking a deep dive into its diverse trade drivers. Looking to the future, the team give their best guess for how trade will evolve in an increasingly complex political environment. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Steve, Stefan and Harry are joined by Moody’s Analytics New Zealand economist Shannon Nicoll to discuss all the happenings in the Kiwi and Aussie economies. Hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates, the team explores what it means for the Kiwi economy and if there are lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia across the ditch. Plus, the team examines how Australia’s tax cuts and cost-of-living supports threaten to stretch inflation's tail, pushing the prospect of rate cuts into next year.

Today's Guest: Shannon Nicoll, Moody's Analytics

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this Olympic-sized episode, Steve, Katrina, Stefan, and Harry, along with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, tackle an eventful week in global markets. Katrina’s hopes for the podcast to come in under world record time are dashed as Mark and Stefan lead a marathon discussion on the complexities of yen carry trades and recent weak U.S. jobs data. As they come around the final bend, the team put a spotlight on the high-stakes U.S. election, try to win gold for snarky comments and setup round two to discuss the latest hurdles in China’s economy. 

Access Mark Zandi’s Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Harris vs. Trump special study here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=279dfa9e-8dde-4f3f-9954-f24a747730a7&app=eccafile

Follow real-time coverage of global indicators, events, and trends on Economic View at https://www.economy.com/economicview/  

Economic View provides real-time and in-depth macroeconomic analysis of the US and global economies. The service combines trusted analysis and award-winning forecasts from Moody's Analytics economists, with economic, demographic and financial data from multiple sources. Our comprehensive service enables users to quickly grasp the impact of economic events and trends.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Katrina Ell struggles to get “cuts” into her vocabulary as she discusses with Moody’s Analytics colleagues Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick the outlook in APAC for interest rate cuts, which are likely by the end of this year. Timing will depend on the U.S. Fed’s rate path, the struggle to contain sticky inflation, and volatility of foreign exchange rates.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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