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TitlePub. DateDuration
The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs04 Sep 202400:22:31

In this episode, we explore the concept of optionality—how small, strategic decisions can lead to outsized rewards with limited downside risk. From ancient philosophy to modern financial strategies, discover how recognizing and seizing options can unlock opportunities in both life and investing.

Topics covered include:

  • How call and put options work
  • The difference between American and European style options and why it matters
  • Why options are positively skewed
  • Examples of using optionality in business and life
  • Why it can be challenging to commit when an option is "in the money"


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Show Notes

Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House

The Wisdom Of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return by Mihir Desai—Harper Academic

Refuse to Choose!: Use All of Your Interests, Passions, and Hobbies to Create the Life and Career of Your Dreams—Penguin Random House

An Economist Walks into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk by Allison Schrager—Penguin Random House

Related Episodes

482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity

268: How To Better Manage Risk

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The Five Layers of Investing - Which Layers Is Your Portfolio Allocated?28 Aug 202400:31:13

In Episode 491, we explore the five layers of investing, including which assets fit into each layer, and give examples of advertisements targeting each layer.

The five layers are:

  • 1. Short-term trading
  • 2. Longer-term speculations
  • 3. Individual securities
  • 4. Diversified portfolios focused on underlying drivers and factors
  • 5. Maximum diversification with few changes and just a few holdings


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Show Notes

Asset Camp

The Role of Emotions in Financial Decisions by David Tuckett—ResearchGate

Morningstar Active Passive Barometer

Related Episodes

486: How Retail Traders Lose Big While Enriching Wall Street

431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation

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Don't Lose Access to Your Cash: Comparing Banks, Neobanks, and Fintech Platforms for Cash Savings19 Jun 202400:24:10

Millions of fintech app users have lost access to their cash. In this episode, we explain why this happened and show you how to protect yourself when placing cash with traditional banks, neobanks, and fintech platforms.

Topics covered include:

  • The mass chaos in the fintech space spawned by the bankruptcy of Synapse Financial Technologies
  • What are FBO accounts, and why they are so troublesome
  • What is the difference between a traditional bank, a neo bank, and a non-bank
  • What to look for and protect yourself when investing your cash savings


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Show Notes

CHAPTER 11 TRUSTEE’S INITIAL STATUS REPORT BY UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA SAN FERNANDO VALLEY DIVISION—CourtListener

Fintech platform Synapse raises $33M to build ‘the AWS of banking’ by TechCrunch—Synapse

X Post by Jason Mikula—X

"Full Reconciliation... May Not Be Possible," Synapse Trustee Says by Jason Mikula—Fintech Business Weekly

Mercury Seeking $30M From Synapse, Emergency Court Filing Reveals by Jason Mikula—Fintech Business Weekly

Infighting among fintech players has caused TabaPay to ‘pull out’ from buying bankrupt Synapse by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunch

Fintech startup Copper forced to discontinue banking services amid Synapse fiasco by Taylor Soper—GeekWire

a16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunch

FDIC Demands Three Companies Cease Making False or Misleading Representations about Deposit Insurance—FDIC


Related Episodes

440: Beware of Platform Risk

424: Are More Bank Runs Coming? The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

412: Where to Invest Your Cash Savings for Higher Yields

304: A 15% Guaranteed Return? Lending on the Fringes of Finance

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How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being27 Jul 202200:27:11

How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more.

Topics covered include:

  • How longevity and birthrates impact population growth
  • What areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declines
  • Why high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levels
  • When is global population expected to peak and at what level
  • Will greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflation
  • What is the difference between growth and development
  • How slowing population growth will impact investments
  • Why the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growth


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results—United Nations Department of Economy and Social Affairs

Five Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al.

Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen Visa

High Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate Oglesby

Another Beautiful Italian Town Is Selling €1 Homes—This Time, No Deposit Required by Cailey Rizzo

Will Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli Rehn

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Wanting Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan

The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation by Mikael Juselius and Elöd Takáts

Unions Are Now a Lifestyle Choice for Some Young, Aspirational Workers, Says Walter Olson—The Economist

Economics for a Full World by Herman Daly

This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End by David Marchese

The Environmental Kuznets Curve by David I. Stern

Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered by Ernst F. Schumacher

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How To Get Better At Risk Taking20 Jul 202200:27:29

Five ways we can better take and manage risk.

Topics covered include:

  • How likely is it that China will invade Taiwan and the stock market will fall 80%
  • Why experts tend to be humble and don't make specific predictions
  • What is the difference between risk and uncertainty, and between loss capacity and loss aversion
  • What factors impact our degree of loss aversion and loss tolerance
  • Why the economy needs more risk takers rather than rentiers


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Investor Risk Profiling: An Overview by Joachim Klement, CFA—CFA Institute Research Foundation

Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample by Jonathan Chapman, et al.

The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Risk Preferences by Wesley Howden and Remy Levin

Does Mood Take the Front Seat in Determining the Financial Risk-Taking Propensity of Individuals? Evidence from India by Crystal Glenda Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna B. V

Venture Capital AUM at Record High of $2tn—Preqin

10 Key Facts About the Capital Markets by Katie Kolchin, CFA—SIFMA

Related Episodes

What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?

268: How To Better Manage Risk

350: How to Invest in Startups on Equity Crowdfunding Platforms?


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What Happens If Your Brokerage Firm Goes Bankrupt?13 Jul 202200:24:35

How protected are you if the brokerage firm where you hold your stocks, bonds, and crypto assets files for bankruptcy? Why you shouldn't store your crypto assets with an online broker.

Topics covered include:

  • How traditional brokerage firms protect their client assets in case of bankruptucy
  • How cryptocurrency brokers, such as Voyager, mistreat their clients in bankruptcy proceedings
  • What is the safest way to hold cryptocurrency


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Voyager To Acquire Circle Invest Retail Digital Asset Business From Circle Internet Financial—Cision

Welcome, Circle Invest! Voyager Acquires Circle Invest's Retail Customers—Voyager

Crypto lender Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy by Shivam Patel, Sinead Cruise, and Tom Wilson—Reuters

Crypto lender Voyager addresses customer anger in first bankruptcy hearing by Dietrich Knauth—Reuters

If a Brokerage Firm Closes Its Doors—FINRA

Crypto Broker Voyager Digital Says Three Arrows Capital Hasn’t Repaid $666 Million in Loans by Vicky Ge Huang—The Wall Street Journal

From $10 billion to zero: How a crypto hedge fund collapsed and dragged many investors down with it by MacKenzie Sigalos—NCBC

Ropes & Gray

Update on Customer USD and Crypto—Voyager

Investors lament potentially lost ‘millions’ on Voyager bankruptcy by Brian Quarmby—Cointelegraph

Coinbase Quarterly Report

CFTC Charges MF Global Inc., MF Global Holdings Ltd., Former CEO Jon S. Corzine, and Former Employee Edith O’Brien for MF Global’s Unlawful Misuse of Nearly One Billion Dollars of Customer Funds and Related Violations—Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Related Episodes

387: Why Most Money Fails

392: What Is Money and How to Use It

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Part 2 - What Is Money and How To Think About It 06 Jul 202200:37:10

David and his son Camden conclude their conversation about money.

Topics covered include:

  • A review of money principles discussed in Part 1
  • How money is created
  • How money is energy
  • Why bank runs occur
  • How cryptocurrency fails as money
  • How money is debt backed by debt


For more information on this episode click here.

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Part 1 - What Is Money and How To Think About It 29 Jun 202200:38:08

David and his son Camden hold a conversation about money, its attributes, how it's created, and how money differs from investments.

Topics covered include:

  • How our earliest money memories impact our views on money
  • The difference between public and private money
  • What are the two primary attributes of money
  • Why money should be accepted with no questions asked
  • How some countries use more cash than others
  • How money differs from investing
  • Why private money can be risky


For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Free email course and PDF on how to beat inflation

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How to Survive a Bear Market22 Jun 202200:27:41

Three things investors can do to survive this bear market and thrive in its aftermath.

Topics discussed include:

  • What are bear markets, how often do they occur, and how long do they last
  • How the current bear market differs from previous ones
  • How severe have losses been for various asset classes
  • How have asset class long-term expected returns changed since last November when the sell-off began
  • What actions can investors take to make it through this bear market and take advantage of opportunities


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

US Leading Indicators, Updated: Friday, June 17, 2022—The Conference Board

Investment Mentioned In this Episode

The Vanguard Total World Stock Market ETF (VT)

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)

iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF (IVLU)

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Related Episodes

306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation

326: The New Math of Retirement Spending and Investing

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Why David Isn't Podcasting This Week and Our New Closed-End Fund Course15 Jun 202200:13:47

This week on the show, David shares some investing lessons from fly fishing and introduces our new course on How To Invest in Closed-End Funds.

Between now and the end of June get 25% off the course. You can learn more here.

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Are BlackRock and Vanguard Too Big and Powerful?08 Jun 202200:23:46

How big index fund and ETF providers have increased their sway over publicly-traded companies while potentially discouraging competition. What can be done about it?

Topics covered include:

  • How market share for assets under management has become increasingly concentrated with big fund complexes like Vanguard and BlackRock
  • What is a fiduciary relationship and how do asset managers serve as fiduciaries
  • Why do investors in index funds and ETFs have no input as to how fund sponsors vote on shareholder proposals
  • What percentage of outstanding shares do Vanguard and BlackRock own of publicly traded companies like Apple, Target, or gun manufacturers
  • How Vanguard and BlackRock use engagement and voting policies to influence publicly traded companies, particularly when it comes to climate risk and diversity
  • How ownership by Vanguard and BlackRock in publicly-traded companies in the same industry could discourage competition.
  • What can be done through regulation or through individual action to reduce Vanguard and BlackRock's influence


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

What BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Are Doing to the Economy by Farhad Manjoo—The New York Times

Investment Company Fact Book

World's Top Asset Management Firms—ADV Rating

West Virginia Treasury Drops BlackRock Over Stance on Climate Risk by Alicia McElhaney—Institutional Investor

How an Organized Republican Effort Punishes Companies for Climate Action by David Gelles and Hiroko Tabuchi—The New York Times

The Future of Corporate Governance Part I: The Problem of Twelve by John C. Coates, IV

Larry Fink’s 2022 Letter to CEOs: The Power of Capitalism

BlackRock's gun money by Dan Primack—Axios

Investment Stewardship 2021 Annual Report—Vanguard

Proxy Voting Policy for U.S. Portfolio Companies

Anticompetitive Effects of Common Ownership by José Azar, Martin C. Schmalz, and Isabel Tecu

Common Ownership and Industry Profitability: A Crossindustry View by Haifeng Wang, Jan-Carl Plagge, James Rowley, Roger A Aliaga-Diaz

How ESG investing came to a reckoning by Harriet Agnew, Adrienne Klasa and Simon Mundy—Financial Times

Related Episodes

148: Is Your Financial Advisor Loyal to You?

234: Index But Don’t Herd

340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?

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Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?01 Jun 202200:25:32

We explore whether long-term and short-term single-family home rentals are contributing to higher rents, higher home prices, and a housing shortage. What are the options for investing in this space and should we?

Topics covered include:

  • What is financialization
  • What are examples of how financialization and government policy has impacted housing
  • How homeownership rates vary around the world
  • How much of a presence do equity REITs have in the single-family home rental space
  • How a housing shortage and more vacation rentals show up in vacancy rates
  • How short-term rentals can magnify the housing shortage
  • What are options for investing in single-family home rentals


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Financialization and the World Economy by Gerald A. Epstein

Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (CPS/HVS)—United States Census Bureau

List of countries by home ownership rate—Wikipedia

The Evolution of Homeownership Rates in Selected OECD Countries: Demographic and Public Policy Influences by Dan Andrews and Aida Caldera Sánchez—OECD Journal: Economic Studies

Best Places to Invest in Vacation Rentals in 2021 & 2022—AirDNA

Airbnbs Outnumber New York City Apartments in Hot Market by Michael Tobin—Bloomberg

AIRBNB Airbnb Enables “Split Stays” to Ease Inventory Woes by Mitra Sorrells—WIT

Amid Tucson housing shortage, Airbnbs fill up whole apartment buildings by Carol Ann Alaimo—Tucson.com

Vacation Rental Industry Statistics—iPropertyManagement.com

Average Airbnb Occupancy Rates By City [2022]—AllTheRooms

Investments Mentioned

American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)

Invitation Homes (INVH)

Sun Communities Inc (SUI)

Arrived

Roofstock

Related Episodes

154: Do Homeowner Tax Breaks Cause Homelessness?

238: The U.S. Is More Socialist Than Denmark Regarding Home Mortgages

258: How Financialization Pushes Up Home Prices

357: Is a Housing Crash Coming?

370 Plus: Investing in Latin America Stocks, TIPS, and Single-Family Rental Homes


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Will Quantitative Tightening Lead To Even Greater Financial Losses?25 May 202200:29:58

How financial markets and the economy performed last time the Federal Reserve took away the punch bowl by raising its policy rate and pursuing quantitative tightening. Things worked out fine that time. Will it be different this time?

Topics covered include:

  • Where did the phrase take away the punch bowl come from
  • How central bank actions can slow the economy and lower inflation.
  • The difference between having cash and having wealth
  • How quantitative easing and quantitative tightening work
  • What happened last time the Federal Reserve pursued quantitative tightening


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Address before the New York Group of the Investment Bankers Association of America on October 19, 1955, by William McChesney Martin, Jr.—FRASER

M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal

270: Repo Rates Soared—Here’s Why It Matters

Related Episodes

270: Repo Rates Soared—Here’s Why It Matters

295: Federal Reserve Insolvency and Monetizing the National Debt

312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances

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Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity12 Jun 202400:28:11

How a few high-impact successes drive up overall average outcomes in investing, business, and creative projects. How to harness positive skewness using a barbell approach. Learn when to mitigate risks and when to embrace them.

Topics covered include:

  • What is positive skewness and how does it manifest in investing, business and creative endeavors
  • How power laws and the 80/20 rule work
  • Why we shouldn't beat ourselves up if we aren't incredibly successful
  • When should we reduce positive skewness and when should we embrace it


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Show Notes

Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks by Hendrik Bessembinder, Te-Feng Chen, Goeun Choi, K.C. John Wei—SSRN

Long-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson—SSRN

Wealth Creation in the U.S. Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019 by Hendrik Bessembinder—SSRN

The Coffee Can portfolio by Robert G. Kirby—csinvesting

Active vs Passive Investing U.S. Barometer Report—Morningstar

Table 7. Survival of private sector establishments by opening year—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

How Many Podcasts Are There? (New 2024 Data) by Josh Howarth—Exploding Topics

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Why Most Money Fails - Six Principles to Navigate the Unstable World of Money18 May 202200:24:44

How should you approach money given most of it either collapses or loses its purchasing power due to inflation.

Get our free six-day email course on how to beat inflation.

Topics covered include:

  • How supposedly safe savings apps collapsed, wiping out users' savings
  • Why algorithmic stablecoins keep failing and why they are not black swans
  • What it takes for money to be successful
  • How money differs from investments


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Intellabridge

Power Women: Maria Eagleton, Mastercard-incubated Blockchain Company, is setting An Example For Women in Cryptocurrency by Shruti Sood—Morning Lazziness

@kashdefi, Twitter post, May 7th, 2022 7:54 AM

@kashdefi, Twitter post, May 8th, 2022 10:42 AM

Terra

Cryptocurrency TerraUSD Plunges as Investors Bail by Caitlin Ostroff, Elaine Yu, and Paul Kiernan—The Wall Street Journal

Cryptocurrency TerraUSD Falls to 11 Cents, Creator Announces Rescue Plan by Paul Vigna—The Wall Street Journal

@kashdefi, Twitter post, May 9th, 2022 8:57 PM

@kashdefi, Twitter post, May 9th, 2022 9:07 PM

@kashdefi, Twitter post, May 12th, 2022 11:01 PM

Intellabridge Announces Kash 2.0 and Kash Treasury Product Update—Intellabridge

There are 99 problems and Tether ain’t $1 by Bryce Elder—Financial Times

Tether cuts holdings of commercial paper, says majority of exposure in Treasuries -CTO—Reuters

Investors withdraw over $7 billion from tether, raising fresh fears about stablecoin’s backing by Ryan Browne—CNBC

Related Episodes

333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System

373: Are Stablecoins Safe? Should You Own Them?

384 Plus: Survey Follow Up, A Stablecoin Collapse, and Trying to Analyze Ripple (unlocked for non Plus members)

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When Should You Pay a Premium?11 May 202200:26:08

What are examples of when it makes sense to pay more than the usual price or fair value for an item or asset?

Topics covered include:

  • Why we are willing to pay a premium for convenience, scarcity, status and to avoid waste
  • What is the difference between net asset value and book value
  • Why business development companies can sell at a premium
  • Why farmland REITs sell at a premium
  • Why closed-end funds sell at a premium
  • How to decide whether to pay a premium or not


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

The Fall of Netflix and Overlooked Assets W/ David Stein—The Investor's Podcast 445

Hercules Capital

Gladstone Land Corporation

The Gabelli Utility Trust—Gabelli Funds

Related Content

381: Investing in Business Development Companies (BDCs) and other Niche Assets That Trade on Stock Exchanges

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

Guide to Farmland Investing

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Is It Time To Invest In Big Tech or Medium Tech Stocks? (FAANGs and FANMAGs)04 May 202200:26:00

With many of the largest tech stocks falling over 20% year-to-date, is now the time to invest? Has the market changed to where tech investing is a safe bet?

Topics covered include:

  • What happened to Netflix
  • What contributed to the astounding performance of large tech stocks since 2013
  • How the largest contributors to overall stock market performance are always changing
  • Why the largest tech companies could fall even more from today's level
  • What are the valuations and sentiment toward large tech stocks
  • What is complexity economics and how does it influence technology
  • How younger investors and fractional trading have influenced the stock market
  • Why stock splits are less effective today in driving up share prices


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Netflix stock plunges as subscribers quit by Julianne Pepitone and Aaron Smith—CNN Money

Netflix Explores a Version With Ads as Subscriber Base Shrinks by Joe Flint and Denny Jacob—The Wall Street Journal

No, you did not see the Netflix mess coming by Robert Armstrong—Financial Times

FANMAG: Because FAANGs Are So Yesterday—Dimensional

Complexity and the Economy by W. Brian Arthur

Rising Risk of Stagflation by Chris Brightman—Research Affiliates

"Fractional Trading" by Zhi Da, Vivian W. Fang, and Wenwei Lin

"Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users" by Brad M. Barber, Xing Huang, Terrance Odean, and Christopher Schwarz

Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the COVID Crisis by Ivo Welch (NBER Working Paper No. 27866. September 2020, Revised October 2020)—National Bureau of Economic Research

Related Episodes

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

298: The Stock Market Is Not the Economy




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Has A Commodities Bull Market Super Cycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest In It?27 Apr 202200:25:49

What causes secular bull and bear markets in commodities. What factors suggest a new commodities bull market has started and how can investors participate. What are the risks.

Topics include:

  • What is a bull and bear market
  • How long have earlier commodity bull and bear markets lasted and what were the returns
  • What led to the current commodity bear market that began in 2011
  • How shareholder revolts and ESG mandates have contributed to reduced investment in the commodities space, contributing to the rebound in commodity prices
  • Why natural gas prices are so much higher in Europe than the U.S.
  • How the shift to electric vehicles is driving the demand for commodities
  • What are five ways to participate in a commodities bull market


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Jeff Currie on the 'Volatility Trap' Keeping Commodity Prices So High - Odd Lots - Bloomberg

NGP Energy Capital

Research—Strategas Securities

The Energy Blame Game and Other False Narratives—Energy Income Partners


Related Episodes

296: Why Negative Prices Exist and What Can They Teach Us

340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?

351: How to Profit From Carbon Investing While Combatting Climate Change

382: Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and Other Real Things


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How To Be A Successful Contrarian Investor20 Apr 202200:27:53

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.

Topics covered include:

  • Five attributes of successful investors
  • Why does the consensus expect stagflation
  • How central banks have performed in previous tightening cycles
  • Three reasons central banks tightening results in a recession
  • When have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cycles
  • How stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimistic
  • What are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environment
  • How contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentum
  • What are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arena


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Weekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra Investment

BofA Says Fund Managers Most Gloomy on Record on Recession Woes by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg

Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street Journal

Tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A. Roth

Related Episodes

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following


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Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and other Real Things13 Apr 202200:26:58

Why food costs are soaring and what we can do about it. Why inflation rates could start to drop. Why commodity futures, including agriculture futures, have been lousy inflation hedges, and what has worked better.

Topics covered include:

  • Previous investment recommendations by Money For the Rest of Us to combat inflation
  • Why commodity futures hedge against unexpected inflation but have underperformed inflation over the long-term
  • A recommended ETF for investing in commodity futures
  • What is causing the jump in food prices and fertilizer
  • Why the risk of food shortages is increasing and what are remedies to solve it
  • Why agriculture price increases don't always lead to higher food costs at the store
  • Why inflation rates could slow in the coming months


For more information on this episode click here.

Episode Sponsors

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Show Notes

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis by Jack Nicas—The New York Times

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing record-high food prices—The Economist

As sanctions bite Russia, fertilizer shortage imperils world food supply by Tom Polansek and Ana Mano—Reuters

All That’s Stopping a Full-Blown Food Crisis? Rice by Javier Blas—The Washington Post

Packaged-food firms are running out of room to raise prices—The Economist

Prospective Plantings, March 31, 2022—USDA

Related Episodes

232: Is It Time To Invest In Commodities?

309: Investments to Fight Financial Repression

312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances

336: Own What Is Real

338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

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Investing in Business Development Companies (BDCs) and other Niche Assets That Trade on Stock Exchanges06 Apr 202200:27:01

We review the ten asset categories that trade on major stock exchanges, many of which are smaller niches in which individual investors have an edge over institutional investors.

How to invest in business development companies, a small segment of the markets that has returned 9% annualized with dividend yields of 8%.

Topics covered include:

  • How securities trading has changed and why are there so many trading platforms
  • Why do institutions still pay trading commissions
  • When did stock exchanges start and which are the largest
  • What are direct and indirect investment vehicles
  • What are the ten asset types that trade on stock exchanges
  • How to invest in business development companies (BDCs)


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)—Corporate Finance Institute

Off-Exchange Trading To Continue To Grow In US by Shanny Basar—Traders Magazine

How We Analyzed Wall Street Block Trades by Liz Hoffman, Corrie Driebusch, and Tom McGinty—The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Institutional Equity Trading Commissions Jump 25% to $8.9BN in 2021, According to Bloomberg Intelligence—Bloomberg

Largest stock exchange operators worldwide as of December 2021, by market capitalization of listed companies—Statista

Total Market Value of U.S. Stock Market—Siblis Research

ETFGI reports the ETFs industry in the United States ended 2021 with record high assets of US$7.21 trillion and record net inflows of US $919.78 billion—ETFGI

REIT Industry Financial Snapshot—Nareit

Mortgage REITs—Nareit

Closed-End Fund Assets and Net Issuance—Investment Company Institute

Investor Bulletin: American Depositary Receipts—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

What is an ADR?—Stock Market MBA

Direct Lenders in the U.S. Middle Market by Tetiana Davydiuk, Tatyana Marchuk, and Samuel Rosen

Business Development Companies (BDCs)—Levin Law

Related Episodes

318: What Are SPACs and Should You Invest in Them?



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How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success30 Mar 202200:26:39

Stories determine economic and financial outcomes, both our own and the world in aggregate. Here's how to craft and follow stories that will lead to better financial outcomes and greater happiness.

Topics covered include:

  • How financial narratives give us the confidence to take action in the face of uncertainty and potential loss
  • How the greater the stakes, the more we rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistics
  • Is the world more stable and predictable or in a constant state of disorder
  • How stories determine what we buy and aspire to and how marketers try to influence those stories
  • How stories of fear and greed influenced economic outcomes in the 1920s and 1930s
  • How more precise stories lead to greater confidence and potentially to manipulation.
  • How to get off the hedonic treadmill in order to be happier


Thanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Joseph Campbell & The Hero’s Journey by Tamlorn Chase—Odyssey Online

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. Gunderson

Horisaki Design & Handel

Optimizing SKU Selection for Promotional Display Space at Grocery Retailers by Pak Et al.

The Role of Sentiment in the Economy of the 1920s by Kabiri Et al.

Monetary Policy and the Management of Uncertainty: A Narrative Approach by Bank of England Publications Et al.

Impressed by Numbers: The Extent to Which Novice Investors Favor Precise Numerical Information in a Context of Uncertainty by Batteux Et al.

When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias by Freling Et al.

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller

Walgreens replaced some fridge doors with screens. And some shoppers absolutely hate it by Nathaniel Meyersohn—CNN

Supermarket Facts—FMI

How To Want Less by Arthur C. Brooks—The Atlantic

Related Episodes

294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

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People Like Us Invest Like This - Remastered with New Introduction23 Mar 202200:27:43

This week, we revisit a classic episode released five years ago. In a newly recorded introduction, David shares the background on the episode and why he chose to release it again in its newly edited form.

Topics covered include:

  • The availability heuristic and confirmation bias
  • How to deal with extreme events when most days are just like the day before
  • How chaos and unpredictability is used as a leadership strategy
  • Why do we need a point of view to guide our actions when investing
  • How to manage financially in a increasingly complex and risky world


Show Notes

Uncertainty – Lawrence M. Krauss – Edge

Regression To the Mean – James J. O’Donnell – Edge

Excerpts from Seth Klarman’s 2016 year end letter to his clients as quoted in the New York Times

Messy: The Power of Disorder To Transform Our Lives – Tim Harford

Seth Godin Course on Presenting To Persuade

Ultra-Easy Money: Digging The Hole Deeper? – William R. White

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Do We Even Need Leaders?16 Mar 202200:24:42

How societies have functioned without leaders, including leaderless megacities that survived over 800 years.

Topics covered include:

  • Is geopolitics more like chess or poker
  • Why analysts think Putin will soon agree to a settlement with Ukraine
  • Do most development occur from the top-down or bottom-up
  • What are some examples of leaderless societies and organizations
  • How social capital and enforcement mechanisms allow the world to function without leaders telling everyone what to do
  • How companies are struggling with the workplace of the future and the role of leadership
  • Why do we need more leadership and fewer bosses


Thanks to Mint Mobile and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice—U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Why Is Leadership Important? by Eric Beato—Babson Thought & Action

Do We Need Leaders? by Jimmy Guterman_Harvard Business Review Home

3 Reasons Why We Need Leaders—Jonathan Sandling

If We’re All Talented People, Why Do We Still Need a Leader? by Angelina Phebus—Lifehack

Trust, Associational Life and Economic Performance by Stephen Knack

Is hybrid work the worst of both worlds?—The Economist

The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber, David Wengrow

Related Episodes

203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?

280: Travel and the Trust Economy

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How to Navigate the Crippling Home Insurance Crisis05 Jun 202400:27:00

Why are homeowners seeing home insurance premiums increases of up to 70%, as David has? What can you do if your insurer drops you, you get a huge premium increase, or you can no longer afford coverage?

Topics covered include:

  • What are the primary drivers of home insurance price increases
  • Why these increases don't show up in the U.S. consumer price index
  • How the reinsurance market works and why reinsurers are passing on 50% premium increases to property and casualty insurers.
  • What percentage of home insurers self-insure
  • What else can homeowners do


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Show Notes

Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet It’s Barely Counted in Inflation. by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times

NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures—Bureau of Economic Analysis

The crippling home insurance crisis hitting America by Rana Forhoohar—The Financial Times

The Hidden Driver of Soaring Home Insurance Costs by Jean Eaglesham—The Wall Street Journal

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF Blog

Home insurance was once a ‘must.’ Now more homeowners are going without. by Patrick Cooley—The Washington Post

Homeowners Perception of Weather Risks 2023 Q2 Consumer Survey—Insurance Information Institute

Insurance Companies Feeling the Pressure in Iowa and the Midwest by Jerry Theodorou—Insurance Journal

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Is Stagflation Coming?09 Mar 202200:29:20

Will the world experience both inflation and subpar economic growth at the same time?

Topics covered include:

  • What is inflation and what causes it
  • What have been the largest contributors to recent high inflation
  • Why does not everyone experience inflation in the same way
  • Why inflation measures are subjective
  • What are long-term deflationary forces faces the global economy
  • What is stagflation and what causes it
  • How do we monitor stagflation to see if it is coming


Thanks to FarmTogether and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Consumer Price Index News Release February 10, 2022—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Alternate Inflation Charts—John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics

OPEC chief says there's 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply-Adam Morgan McCarthy—Markets Insider

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What If It's Different This Time? - The Impact of the Russian-Ukraine War02 Mar 202200:22:12

What can we do to prepare if the Russian-Ukraine war gets even worse?

Topics covered include:

  • How risk and uncertainty differ as does how we manage them
  • What we can learn from Ukraine and Russian citizens on dealing with uncertainty
  • What will be the financial impact of the sanctions against Russia and the ruble collapse
  • Why and how we should all prepare for potential cyberattacks
  • Why now is the time to make sure you have an appropriate asset allocation
  • How holding dollars, euros, or stablecoin can help protect against currency collapses
  • What we can do to help Ukraine


Thanks to Masterworks and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

JPMorgan Says Selling Stocks Now Carries Too Much Risk by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg

Ukraine conflict: Dread in Kyiv as huge Russian convoy advances by Lyse Doucet—BBC

Russia launches fierce rocket attack on Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by Guy Chazan, John Reed, Max Seddon, Henry Foy, John Paul Rathbone, and Demetri Sevastopulo—Financial Times

How new sanctions could cripple Russia’s economy—The Economist

Russian c.bank orders block on foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities - document—Reuters

Ukraine invasion: Russians feel the pain of international sanctions by Anastasia Stognei and Simon Fraser—BBC

The dire predictions about a Russian cyber onslaught haven’t come true in Ukraine. At least not yet. by Joseph Menn and Craig Timberg—The Washington Post

Hackers Breached Colonial Pipeline Using Compromised Password by William Turton and Kartikay Mehrotra—Bloomberg

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes by Maura Reynolds—Politico

Related Episodes

229: Tail Events and Tail Risk

332: What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?


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What Investment Style Fits Your Personality?23 Feb 202200:24:15

How to decide the investing scale and timeframe that works best for your temperament.

Topics covered include:

  • How stocks perform in the days and weeks following catastrophic events
  • What are some potential financial impacts of Russia's invasion into Ukraine
  • How complex systems operate at different scales and timeframes
  • What are examples of different scales and timeframes for investing
  • How tactical asset allocation strategies work
  • Why schema and rules of thumb develop and how do they get passed on
  • How to decide on which investment approach works best for you


Thanks to Mint Mobile and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Nikkei 225 Index - 67 Year Historical Chart—Macrotrends

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. Gunderson (Editor)

Allocate Smartly

Protective Asset Allocation (PAA): A Simple Momentum-Based Alternative for Term Deposits by Wouter J. Keller and Jan Willem Keuning

Trying Not to Try: The Art and Science of Spontaneity by Edward Slingerland

Related Episodes

203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?

266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following

374: Lifecycle Investing, Risk Parity Portfolios, and Why Stocks Are Riskier in the Long Run

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Five Financial Lessons From Middlemarch16 Feb 202200:24:42

Key takeaways from one of the greatest personal finance novels of all time.

Topics covered include:

  • Why it is easier to keep doing the same old thing
  • Why partners should discuss their finances
  • Why debt can be suffocating
  • Why leverage can be dangerous
  • One of the most satisfying ways to give away wealth


Thanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Middlemarch by George Eliot

Middlemarch Book Summary—Stonory

Rebecca Mead/"'Middlemarch' and Me"—The New Yorker (Video)

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Lifecycle Investing, Risk Parity Portfolios, and Why Stocks Are Riskier in the Long Run09 Feb 202200:27:16

How lifecycle investing and risk parity portfolios can assist you in having sufficient assets to retire. What are the two types of time diversification and why is one flawed?

Topics covered include:

  • What is settled work and what are some examples
  • How does lifecycle investing work and should you consider it
  • Why investing in stocks and other volatile asset classes is riskier over longer holding periods
  • What are risk-parity portfolios and how to evaluate them


Thanks to Masterworks for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The moral calculations of a billionaire by Eli Saslow—The Washington Post

Life-Cycle Investing and Leverage: Buying Stock on Margin Can Reduce Retirement Risk by Ian Ayres and Barry J. Nalebuff

Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young, Forum Discussion by Steve Reading on bogleheads.org

What Practitioners Need to Know… About Time Diversification (corrected March 2015) by Mark Kritzman—Financial Analysts Journal Volume 71, Number 1

Wishful Thinking About the Risk of Stocks in the Long Run: Consequences for Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit Retirement Plans by Zvi Bodie

Pension Obligation Bonds: Know Their Appeal and Pitfalls by Todd Tauzer—Segal

Shrinkage Estimation in Risk Parity Portfolios by Nabil Alkafri and Christoph Frey

Portfolio Charts

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds—Money For the Rest of Us

Related Episodes

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

Why You Should Rebalance Your Portfolio

306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation

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Are Stablecoins Safe? Should You Own Them?02 Feb 202200:25:51

How stablecoins are similar and different from other monetary assets. What are stablecoin risks. Why central bank digital currencies are one of the biggest threats to stablecoins.

Topics covered include:

  • Why the Federal Reserve and other central banks are exploring issuing their own digital currencies
  • What is the difference between public and private money
  • How deposit insurance and central bank actions prevent runs on private money
  • How money market mutual funds are a type of stablecoin
  • How true stablecoins and algorithmic stablecoins differ
  • What is driving the demand for stablecoins
  • What are the risks of stablecoins


Thanks to LinkedIn and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation January 2022—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Taming Wildcat Stablecoins by Gary B. Gorton and Jeffery Zhang

Money Stock Measures - H.6 Release—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Top Stablecoin Tokens by Market Capitalization—CoinMarketCap

Transparency—Tether

Report on Stable Coins, November 2021—Various US Agencies

Built to Fail: The Inherent Fragility of Algorithmic StablecoinsDr. Ryan Clements

The Quest for a Truly Decentralized Stablecoin by Brady Dale—Coin Desk

Cryptocurrency Doesn’t Amount to Much by Steve H. Hanke and Matt Sekerke—The Wall Street Journal

Related Episodes

319: Here Come Central Bank Digital Currencies

339: How To Make Money with BlockFi, Dai, and the Evolving DeFi Ecosystem

333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System

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When Should You Sell An Investment?26 Jan 202200:25:25

We explore four reasons to sell an asset with a focus on the Ark Innovation ETF, Bitcoin, and equity REITs. We also put the current stock market sell-off into historical perspective.

Topics covered include:

  • What are lousy reasons to sell an investment
  • What is a sell discipline
  • What are four good reasons to sell an investment
  • Why and why not to invest in the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK)
  • Why growth stocks are getting crushed in the current market sell-off
  • How frequently does the stock market correct by more than 10%


Thanks to Mint Mobile for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Bitcoin Bounces Back After Falling Below $33,000 by Anna Hirtenstein—The Wall Street Journal

Selling Out, Memos From Howard Marks—Oaktree Capital Management

Here's Cathie Wood's advice to her fund's investors after a 58% sell-off in Ark's flagship ETF by Matthew Fox—Markets Insider

Related Episodes

291: How To Survive the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Shutdown

302: Investing is Not Knowing

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Find Your Retirement Investing and Living Style19 Jan 202200:26:14

What are the pros and cons of the four approaches to managing retirement savings. How to implement a bucketing or time segmentation retirement investing approach.

Topics covered include:

  • Why it takes time to find a retirement pattern that fits
  • How retirement investing is a balance between safety-first and probability-based as well as maintaining optionality and committing.
  • How total return investing differs from a safety-first approach
  • What are products allow for a risk floor but also provide some potential growth
  • How a time segmentation or bucket approach to retirement investing works


Thanks to Policygenius and Masterworks for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success (The Retirement Researcher Guide Series) by Wade Pfau

A Model Approach to Selecting a Personalized Retirement Income Strategy by Alejandro Murguia and Wade D. Pfau

The Four Approaches to Managing Retirement Income Risk by Wade D. Pfau

Build Ladders With iBonds® ETFs—iShares

Related Episodes

279: Why All Retirees Should Consider an Income Annuity

306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation

326: The New Math of Retirement Spending and Investing





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Should You Invest In Small and Mid Cap Stocks? Is Now the Time?12 Jan 202200:25:32

Small and mid-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks for over a decade. Is now the time to increase your allocation?

Topics covered include:

  • How big are small and mid-cap stocks
  • How have small and mid-cap stocks performed relative to large-cap stocks
  • How have active small and mid-cap managers performed relative to indexing options
  • Are bigger IPOs contributing to small and mid-cap stocks underperformance
  • How expensive or cheap are small-cap stocks relative to large-cap
  • What is the capital asset pricing model and how do academics use it to identify outperforming factors
  • How value, momentum, and quality drive small-cap stock outperformance
  • How to invest in small and mid-cap stocks


Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The Morningstar Active/Passive Barometer

Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics January 5, 2022, by Jay R. Ritter—Warrington College of Business, University of Florida

The Nexus of Anomalies-Stock Returns-Asset Pricing Models: The International Evidence by Rahul Roy and Shijin Santhakumar

The Cross-Section of Stock Returns before 1926 (And Beyond) by Guido Baltussen, Bart van Vliet, and Pim van Vliet

Factor Timing: Keep It Simple by Michael Aked—Research Affiliates



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Year-End 2021 Listener Q&A Episode15 Dec 202100:35:26

We answer listener questions in our final episode of 2021.

Topics covered include:

  • Estimating financial market returns in the next thirty years
  • Investing in art
  • Whether stocks will no longer exist
  • How to start investing
  • Fidelity's new Bitcoin ETF
  • How mutual funds are priced
  • How to teach family members about investing
  • Volatility versus drawdowns
  • How to face the uncertainty of crashing stocks, rising interest rates, and numerous other economic and financial threats
  • David's four most recent investments he made in his personal portfolio


Thanks to Policygenius and OurCrowd for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlements: The Hidden Costs of Optimization29 May 202400:27:10

Why stock, ETF, and bond trades are optimized to settle in less than a day, allowing investors quicker access to their cash and securities. What are the benefits and costs of optimization in the relentless drive for cheaper, faster, and more profitable.

  • Why countries are moving to T+1 settlement from T+2 for security trades
  • What will it take for secur
  • How BlackRock and Franklin have launched Treasury funds that are tokenized and trade on the Etherium network
  • How optimization works and what are the tradeoffs
  • How we can use satisficing and rules of thumb in order to cope with the complexity of the world


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Show Notes

About the ‘T+1’ Rule Making US Stocks Settle in a Day by Lydia Beyoud and Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

SEC Chair Gensler Statement on Upcoming Implementation of T+1 Settlement Cycle—SEC

What faster trading cycles will mean for US markets by Jennifer Hughes and Harriet Clarfelt—The Financial Times

Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge by Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

BlackRock closes in on crown of world’s largest bitcoin fund by Will Schmitt and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme

Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models by Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn, and Valeri V. Nikolaev—The University of Chicago

Related Episodes

457: AI’s Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat

329: Meme Stocks, GameStop, Short Squeezes, and Bubbles

228: How Tokenization Will Radically Change Investing


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How To Invest in Web3, DAOs and the Metaverse08 Dec 202100:24:34

What is Web 3.0 and how will it transform the world? How you can invest your time and money in decentralized autonomous organizations and other Web3 projects.

Topics covered include:

  • What are Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and Web 3.0 and how do they differ
  • What are decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)
  • How DAOs operate and what are some examples
  • How to register one's Web 3.0 user name
  • How the Ethereum network, a major part of Web3, is changing
  • How to participate and invest in DAOs and other Web3 projects


Thanks to LinkedIn and Commonstock for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)—Ethereum

State of the DAOs #0 | Oct 6th, 2021 by BanklessDAO Writers Guild—BanklessDAO

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations;The New Coordination Frontier by Calvinme—Medium

Organization Legos: The State of DAO Tooling by Nichanan Kesonpat—Medium

OpenOrgs.info

Snapshot

DeepDAO

ENS

Uniswap Protocol

Gas and Fees—Ethereum

Ultra Sound Money

Proof of Stake (PoS)—Ethereum

What Is the Metaverse, Exactly? by Eric Ravenscraft—Wired

Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant — The Wonders of Web3, How to Pick the Right Hill to Climb, Finding the Right Amount of Crypto Regulation, Friends with Benefits, and the Untapped Potential of NFTs (#542)—The Tim Ferris Show

Related Episodes

339: How To Make Money with BlockFi, Dai and the Evolving DeFi Ecosystem

NFTs—Money For the Rest of Us Topic Index

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What Investment Strategies Do Best During High Inflation Periods?01 Dec 202100:27:56

How different asset classes and investment strategies have performed during periods of unexpectedly high inflation. While trend and momentum strategies have performed the best, what are some of the challenges with implementing those strategies.

Topics covered include:

  • What has led to today's high inflation environment and why it is unique
  • How current demographic and technology trends are disinflationary
  • How many inflationary regimes have there been in the past
  • How stocks, residential housing, commodities, collectibles performed during high inflation environments.
  • How trend following and momentum have been the best performing strategy during high inflation environments.
  • Which trend following and momentum approaches have worked best for individual investors.
  • How managed futures strategies work


Thanks to OurCrowd and Egnyte for sponsoring the episode. Here is more information on Money For the Rest of Us Plus.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

US Budget Deficit Hits $2.77 Trillion in 2021, 2nd Highest by Associated Press—U.S. News & World Report

India says nationwide birthrates drop below key ‘replacement rate’ by Gerry Shih—The Washington Post

The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times by Henry Neville Et al.

Trend Following: Equity and Bond Crisis Alpha by Carl Hamill, Sandy Rattray, and Otto Van Hemert

AQR hedge fund suffers $10bn in outflows by Laurence Fletcher—Financial Times

Is There a Replication Crisis in Finance? Theis Ingerslev Jensen, Bryan T. Kelly, and Lasse Heje Pedersen

Related Episodes

266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

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Is There a Global Energy Crisis?17 Nov 202100:20:32

With oil, natural gas, coal, and gasoline at the highest prices in eight years, we consider if there is an energy crisis due to an over-reliance on renewable energy sources.

Topics covered include:

  • How high have prices risen for oil, gasoline, natural gas, and coal
  • Why rising energy prices is a multifaceted problem as illustrated by coal
  • How the global energy mix has changed for power production
  • Why investment capital is flowing to renewable energy projects rather than fossil fuel projects
  • Why a clean energy transition leads to more volatile fossil fuel prices
  • How higher oil prices lead to greater adoption of electric vehicles
  • How renewable energy combined with battery technology will create lead to energy on-demand solutions

Thanks to Egnyte and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

US coal prices jump to highest level since 2009 by Myles McCormick—Financial Times

China’s Energy Crisis Complicates Its Plans for Climate Announcements Ahead of COP26 by Sha Hua and Keith Zhai—The Wall Street Journal

China’s Coal War With Australia Fuels Shortage at Home by Chuin-Wei Yap—The Wall Street Journal

China’s Coal Shortage Threatens Farmers in India and Truckers in South Korea by Jiyoung Sohn in Seoul and Vibhuti Agarwal—The Wall Street Journal

The Gregor Letter

President Jimmy Carter - Report to the Nation on Energy (Video)

Share of renewables, low-carbon sources and fossil fuels in power generation, World 1990-2019—IEA

Oil 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2026—IEA

Coal—IEA

Statement on recent developments in natural gas and electricity markets—IEA

Renewable energy firms warn of difficult conditions amid slow winds by Jasper Jolly—The Guardian

Global EV sales rise 80% in 2021, as automakers including Ford, GM commit to zero emissions: BNEF by Robert Walton—Utility Dive

Everyday Driver

In 1900, Ladies’ Home Journal Publishes 28 Predictions for the Year 2000 by Josh Jones—Open Culture

Here’s what’s in the infrastructure bill that Biden signed today By Emily Cochrane, Christopher Flavelle, and Alan Rappeport—The New York Times

Battery Storage in the United States: An Update on Market Trends—U.S. Energy Information Administration

Metals may become the new oil in net-zero emissions scenario by Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer, Nico Valckx—Vox EU, CERP

Related Episodes

346: Should You Buy an Electric Car or Truck?

What You Need to Know About Carbon Investing and its Effect on Climate Change

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Why Some Asset Bubbles Don't Burst10 Nov 202100:21:41

What conditions need to be in place for an asset bubble to continue and how that applies to stocks, cryptocurrency, and houses.

Topics covered include:

  • How to determine if there is an asset bubble
  • What are microbubbles and anti-bubbles
  • How the cannabis stock bubble burst
  • What is required to sustain an asset bubble
  • How the current runup in home prices differs from the housing bubble in the mid-2000s
  • What structural changes have led to the high valuations for U.S. stocks
  • What is the Great Wealth Transfer and will it impact stock prices


Thanks to Commonstock and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

All-Transactions House Price Index for Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD)—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

What Pops Stock Market Bubbles? Only Surprises, Rob Arnott Says by Vildana Hajric and Michael P. Regan—Bloomberg

Yes. It's a Bubble. So What? by Rob Arnott, Bradford Cornell, and Shane Shepherd—Research Affiliates

Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble by Rob Arnott, Bradford Cornell, and Shane Shepherd—Research Affiliates

What's really going on with San Francisco Walgreens closures? by Eric Ting—SFGATE

SF ranks high in property crime while it ranks low in arrests by Phil Matier—San Fransisco Chronicle

Zillow’s Algorithm-Fueled Buying Spree Doomed Its Home-Flipping Experiment by Patrick Clark—Bloomberg

In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis – Xavier Gabaix and Ralph S.J. Koijen

The Great Wealth Transfer—Cerulli Associates

How Does Intergenerational Wealth Transmission Affect Wealth Concentration? by Laura Feiveson and John Sabelhaus—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Related Episodes

226: How To Spot Asset Bubbles and What To Do About Them

234: Index But Don’t Herd

329: Meme Stocks, GameStop, Short Squeezes, and Bubbles


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Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure From Currency Fluctuations?03 Nov 202100:22:30

How to decide whether it is worth it to hedge currency exposure when investing outside of your home country.

Topics covered include:

  • How currency exchange rates impact investment returns
  • What factors impact currency exchange rates
  • What are carry trades and how do they influence exchange rates
  • How currency forward contracts work
  • How ETFs and funds hedge currency exposure
  • What to consider when deciding whether to hedge foreign currency exposure


Thanks to Egnyte and Quartr for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Rising U.S. yields push yen to lowest in nearly 3 years by Saikat Chatterjee—Reuters

Cutting Volatility in Foreign Stocks While Remaining 100% Invested: Hedge the Currency? by Jeff Weniger and Jeremy Schwartz—WisdomTree

Carry Trade Comes Surging Back With Biggest Gains Since 2016 by Robert Fullem and Brody Ford—Bloomberg

Related Episodes

209: Why Bother Investing Internationally?

283: Why You Should Care About Carry Trades


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Why Most Cities Thrive and What We Can Learn From Them27 Oct 202100:20:41

How New York City and other metropolises will overcome the pandemic economic shock. Why do some cities thrive while others devolve into chaos? How we can develop the resiliency of thriving cities.

Topics covered include:

  • How New York and other cities have dealt with the pandemic economic shock
  • Why the city of Port au Prince in Haiti is struggling
  • Why do cities fail less frequently than companies
  • How we can replicate the rhythms and cycles of cities
  • How most cities can evolve in response to the pandemic and we can too


Thanks to Felix Gray and Alto CryptoIRA for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Local Area Unemployment Statistics - New York City— U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies by Geoffrey B. West

The Office Sector in New York City by Brian McElwain, Anita Yadavalli, and Amar Mehta—Office of the New York Comptroller

Desperate Haitians suffocate under growing power of gangs by Dánica Coto and Alberto Arce—The Associated Press

California’s approach to gendered toys says a lot about the state’s political direction—The Economist

HB 389: Poor policy, poorly written, bad for rural Idaho by Geoffrey Wardle—Idaho Business Review

Human History Gets a Rewriteby By William Deresiewicz—The Atlantic

The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow

Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman

Related Episodes

171: The Extraordinary Impact of Cities

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Should You Invest in a Bitcoin ETF?20 Oct 202100:27:48

Why the new U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs are a bad idea and will underperform Bitcoin.

Topics covered include:

  • What fund and ETF options are available for investing in Bitcoin
  • Why the U.S. has only authorized Bitcoin ETFs that invest in Bitcoin futures even though there are closed-end funds that hold Bitcoin directly
  • What is there a regulatory battle surrounding cryptocurrencies?
  • How closed-end funds differ from ETFs
  • How Bitcoin futures work
  • Why Bitcoin ETFs that invest in Bitcoin futures will lag the performance of owning Bitcoin directly
  • Why investors should avoid the new U.S. Bitcoin ETFs


Thanks to Policygenius and Justworks for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

SEC Set to Allow Bitcoin Futures ETFs as Deadline Looms by Katherine Greifeld, Vildana Hajric, and Benjamin Bain—Bloomberg

U.S. SEC Chair Gensler calls on Congress to help rein in crypto 'Wild West' Katanga Johnson—Reuters

Bitcoin Strategy ETF—ProShares

Purpose Bitcoin ETF—Purpose Investments

Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust

Osprey Bitcoin Trust

Jacobi receives approval for "world’s first tier one" bitcoin ETF—Funds Europe

Remarks Before the Aspen Security Forum by Chair Gary Gensler—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Coinbase abandons lending product after SEC pushback by Hannah Murphy and Stefania Palma—Financial Times

Coinbase calls for creation of dedicated crypto regulator by Hannah Murphy and Stefania Palma—Financial Times

First bitcoin futures ETF to make its debut Tuesday on the NYSE, ProShares says by Tanaya Macheel—CNBC

Rustication by Dennis J. Pogue—Mount Vernon Ladies' Association

Is Thomas Jefferson’s Monticello Constructed of Rammed Earth?—Earth Architecture

What is Roll Yield and How It Impacts Bitcoin, Commodity, and VIX ETF Returns—Money For the Rest of Us

Related Episodes

355: Which Money Is Crazier: The U.S. Dollar or Bitcoin?

319: Here Come Central Bank Digital Currencies

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Are Timeshares a Scam? How to Buy and Sell a Timeshare Vacation Rental13 Oct 202100:27:48

How the economics of timeshare vacation rentals work, and why they can be a great fit for some individuals.

Topics covered include:

  • When were the first timeshares introduced
  • What are the different timeshare ownership models
  • Why timeshares don't appreciate but fall in price after purchase
  • What are maintenance fees and why do they keep increasing
  • Who is the target market for timeshares and how do timeshare companies market to them
  • How timeshare companies make money
  • How to sell your existing timeshare
  • How to buy a new timeshare

Thanks to Quartr and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The ABC’s of PUD’s (Part II): The Basics of Timesharing—American Bar Association

Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call July 29, 2021—Marriott Vacations Worldwide

Investor Presentation July 2021—Marriott Vacations Worldwide

SellMyTimeshareNow, LLC

Firm to Pay $2.6M, Stop Making False Timeshare Claims—Claims Journal

Related Episodes

24: Timeshares, Preppers and Permanent Portfolios

57: Live Like A Local When Traveling

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Will the U.S. Default? Debt Ceilings, Government Shutdowns, and the National Debt29 Sep 202100:25:48

Why the U.S. is closing in on both a debt default and a government shutdown. 

Topics covered include:

  • How a government shutdown differs from a debt ceiling crisis
  • Why hasn't Congress passed legislation to fund the government and raise the debt limit
  • How refusing to increase the debt ceiling could impact Social Security
  • How big is the national debt and who owns it
  • Why we never know how much federal debt is too much: Japan vs the U.S.
  • How federal debt is used and how it has led to financial innovation
  • Why countries default on their debt
  • What are some of the challenges with central banks pegging interest rates and monetizing the debt
  • What could cause the U.S. dollar to crash and inflation to soar

Thanks to Alto CryptoIRA and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

America’s debt ceiling is a disaster, though fiscal rules can help—The Economist

Treasury Bulletin, September 2021—Bureau of the Fiscal Service

Major Foreign Holding of Treasury Securities—Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board

Fed official warns of ‘extreme’ market reaction unless debt ceiling raised by Lauren Fedor, Colby Smith and James Politi - The Financial Times

Republicans Are Playing a Dangerous Game With Debt by Michael R. Strain—The New York Times

Explainer: What happens when the U.S. federal government shuts down? by Jason Lange—Reuters

Janet Yellen Says Treasury Could Exhaust Cash Reserves by Oct. 18 if Debt Limit Isn’t Raised by Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson—The Wall Street Journal

Janet Yellen: Congress, Raise the Debt Limit by Janet Yellen—The Wall Street Journal

Devin Carroll on YouTube

In Defense of Public Debt by Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa El-Ganainy, Rui Esteves, and Kris James Mitchener

Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage by R. Reis

How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political Science

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political Science

Related Episodes

295: Federal Reserve Insolvency and Monetizing the National Debt

338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?

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Why Are There So Many Shortages?22 Sep 202100:21:33

What is causing the shortage of goods and workers? What should we do about it?

Topics covered include:

  • How a tree pandemic killed billions of American Chestnut trees
  • How a massive increase in demand has crippled the global supply, leading to an eight-fold increase in shipping costs
  • Why there are so many job openings and people quitting their jobs
  • Why the free market doesn't work as well for child daycare
  • How stimulus payments during the pandemic reduced poverty rates
  • What is the lying flat movement
  • How everything is in place for an extended period of high inflation even though the bond market still anticipates inflation will be transitory
  • Why we should own real things and plan more downtime


Thanks to Policygenius and Masterworks for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.


Show Notes

The Demise and Potential Revival of the American Chestnut by Kate Morgan—Sierra Club

U.S. Imports to Increase by 20% by End of 2021—Material Handling & Logistics

The largest port in the US hit a new ship-backlog record every day last week, as 65 massive container boats float off the California coast by Grace Kay—Business Insider

The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It. by Peter S. Goodman and Keith Bradsher—The New York Times

‘Just Get Me a Box’: Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell by Brendan Murray—Bloomberg Businessweek

Rising Shipping Costs Are Companies’ Latest Inflation Riddle by Thomas Gryta—The Wall Street Journal

Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2020—United States Census Bureau

Employers Are Baffled as U.S. Benefits End and Jobs Go Begging by Katia Dmitrieva and Olivia Rockeman—Bloomberg

Job Openings and Labor Turnover - July 2021—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

‘Lie Flat’ If You Want, But Be Ready to Pay the Price by Allison Schrager—Bloomberg

‘Can’t Compete’: Why Hiring for Child Care Is a Huge Struggle by Claire Cain Miller—The New York Times

Treasury Releases Report Showing U.S. Childcare System Overburdens Families and Causes Shortages Due to Inadequate Supply—U.S. Department of the Treasury

Related Episodes

323: The Economy Is Not A Machine

331: Why Do We Work So Much?


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National Debt Masterclass Finale - What To Do22 May 202400:27:57

In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.

Topics covered include:

  • How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers
  • How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt
  • Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt
  • How should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation


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NetSuite 

Yahoo Finance

Our Premium Products

Asset Camp

Money for the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News

Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters

IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg

WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER

Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times

Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED

Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED

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Should You Stop Investing in China? - Evergrande, VIEs and other Chinese Risks15 Sep 202100:22:04

A regulatory crackdown and ideological campaign by the Chinese government has upended the Chinese stock market, which comprises close to 40% of emerging market indices. We evaluate what is going on and what investors should do.

Topics covered include:

  • How has the Chinese stock market performed in 2021
  • Why has Cathie Wood and Ark Invest dramatically cut their Chinese stock exposure
  • What are examples of regulatory changes in China
  • Why the stocks of Chinese online tutoring companies that trade on the New York Stock Exchange fell 90% this year
  • What are variable interest entities (VIEs) and why they are a risky corporate structure for Chinese companies
  • How a high private sector debt burden could lead to a banking crisis or contagion in China
  • What are ways investors can invest in emerging markets while having a smaller allocation to China


Thanks to LinkedIn and Simplify ETFs for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Cathie Wood’s Ark cuts China positions ‘dramatically’ by Leo Lewis and Thomas Hale—Financial Times

Beijing to break up Ant’s Alipay and force creation of separate loans app by Sun Yu and Ryan McMorrow—Financial Times

China’s dodgy-debt double act—The Economist

China’s bid to stabilise its property market is causing jitters—The Economist

Related Episodes

218: Is China or the U.S. More Vulnerable?

249: Should You Invest in India?

328: Are You Underweight Chinese Stocks? Pros and Cons of Investing in China


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Is a Housing Crash Coming?08 Sep 202100:21:48

What are the demand and supply drivers of home prices? What is the current status of those drivers and do they suggest a housing price crash is imminent, particularly given mortgage forbearance programs are ending?

Topics covered include:

  • How much have home prices appreciated in the past year compared to historical rates
  • What has driven the demand shock for housing
  • Why U.S. houses are so much more affordable compared to earlier periods
  • How big is the housing shortage in the U.S.
  • What could cause home prices to crash
  • How housing supply and demand drivers apply to local real estate markets
  • How to purchase a home in a hot housing market


Thanks to the Modern Finance podcast and Simplify ETFs for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

In a forgotten town by the Salton Sea, newcomers build a bohemian dream Rory Carroll—The guardian

For One Weekend a Year, a Tiny Town on the Salton Sea Becomes a Mecca for Artists and Partiers by April Wong—Los Angeles Magazine

Electric vehicles need batteries. Those need lithium. That’s where the Salton Sea comes in. by Elliot Spagat—Chicago Sun-Times

A shock is headed for the housing market by Lance Lambert—Fortune

Housing Supply: A Growing Deficit—Freddie Mac

Related Episodes

235: What If Home Prices Always Declined

258: How Financialization Pushes Up Home Prices

317: How To Buy In A Hot Housing Market


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How, When, and Why Should You Rebalance Your Investment Portfolio?01 Sep 202100:22:16

Why bother rebalancing your investment portfolio and what is the best method for doing so.

Topics covered include:

  • How a target asset allocation can get out of line if a portfolio is not rebalanced
  • What is positive skewness and why it matters to portfolio investing
  • What is volatility drag and how it can lead to lower end of period wealth
  • What are the costs of rebalancing
  • Which rebalancing method if any has been the most effective


Thanks to Felix Gray glasses and Mint Mobile for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Long-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson

Positively Skewed Distribution—Corporate Finance Institute

Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies by Nicholas Barberis, Lawrence J. Jin, and Baolian Wang

Strategic Rebalancing by Sandy Rattray, Nicolas Granger, Campbell R. Harvey, and Otto Van Hemert

Portfolio Rebalancing: Tradeoffs and Decisions by Xing Hong and Philipp Meyer-Brauns

Diversification Returns, Rebalancing Returns and Volatility Pumping by Keith Cuthbertson, Simon Hayley, Nick Motson, and Dirk Nitzsche

Getting back on track: A guide to smart rebalancing by Jenna L. McNamee, Thomas Paradise, and Maria A. Bruno—Vanguard

Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms by Mark Spitznagel

Related Episodes

313: No One Is Entirely a Buy and Hold Investor

341: How to Overcome Investing Fears

354: Now Is the Best Time Ever to Be an Individual Investor

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