Explore every episode of the podcast Metacasts: Commodities & Energy

This week's edition examines the intensifying collision between unprecedented computational demand and the fragile constraints of global energy grids and maritime chokepoints. We analyze how the surge in AI capital expenditure is driving structural inflation, reshaping commodity landscapes, and forcing a fundamental reassessment of energy security from the Strait of Hormuz to the European carbon markets. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:39 - The AI Power Hunger 8:16 - Macro Trends and Monetary Policy 14:31 - Chokepoints and Crude Volatility 18:38 - The Natural Gas and LNG Crunch 20:54 - Renewable Transitions and Carbon Markets 22:48 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "SAF Insights Jet Fuel, SAF and the Middle Distillate Squeeze" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado químicos de pinus e petróleo" (Argus Media) - "How ISO is shaping the future of pyrogenic biocarbon" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP55 Market sentiment after IFA's Annual conference" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 20th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Credits Risks and the Market Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 17th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Chipmaker Rout Deepens Plunge From Record" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 16th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Equity Bull Case" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 15th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "June PPI and the US Eco Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 14th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "June CPI and Kevin Warsh" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 The EU's cap and trade-offs #305" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "Senior Decision Makers Luis Laboy, Hewlett Foundation (EP.512)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Roadmap for Private Credit from Australia - Frank Danieli of MA Financial Group (EP.511)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Suzanne Maloney on Whether Perpetual Conflict is New Normal for the Gulf" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Asian LNG under pressure what comes next for prices amid the Middle East conflict" (Commodities Focus) - "Asia LNG under pressure what comes next for prices amid the Middle East conflict" (Commodities Focus) - "Artificial Bloom" (Doomberg) - "The summer stress test How heat waves are rewiring Europe's power markets" (Energy Evolution) - "EM Lens William Blair's Assalin Remains Bullish on EM Outlook" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters BI's Adelberg on Housing, MBS and Prepay Risk" (FICC Focus) - "Sam Lyman on the Digital Payments Race Between the US and China" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji Bab el-Mandeb The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching" (Macro Voices) - "Lev Menand and Nathan Tankus on Why Fed Independence Is Now Hanging by a Thread" (Odd Lots) - "Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading" (Odd Lots) - "NY Governor Kathy Hochul on Her One Year Data Center Moratorium" (Odd Lots) - "How have plummeting Russian diesel exports affected cracks across the European middle distillates space" (Oil Markets) - "238. Revealed CIP's Playbook (Live from DLA Piper) - Jul26" (Redefining Energy) - "SoH Crisis Takeaways Obliterating Peak Oil Demand, SoH Edition (EP221)" (Super-Spiked) - "Should private credit be public" (Unhedged) - "Everything is awesome for banks" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural decoupling of global credit markets from long-standing macroeconomic assumptions, focusing on how energy and infrastructure constraints are becoming the primary bottlenecks for the AI revolution. We analyze the widening risks in the US high-yield sector, the escalating maritime shadow war in the Strait of Hormuz, and the intensifying competition for the power-endowment models required to sustain the next era of computing. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:34 - Global Credit Markets and Macroeconomic Shifts 6:30 - Geopolitical Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz 12:11 - The Energy Transition and Data Center Demand 18:18 - The High Stakes of AI and Tech Valuations 20:39 - Oil, Gas, and the New Era of US Production 22:41 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Strait talk O(h)man - not again..." (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 13th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Market Jitters Amid Geopolitical and Tech Uncertainty" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 10th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Markets Price in AI and Geopolitics" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 9th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Markets and Geopolitical Swings" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 7th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Market Rally and NATO Summit" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 H1'26 climate tech funding up 55% to $26bn, thanks to data centers" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "Economic Growth, Governance, and Capital Allocation - Dambisa Moyo (EP.410)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "WTT 5.5 Lessons at 55" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Iran Conflict Brief How Renewed Strikes Impact Global Energy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Alice Yake on Planning for a Reliable, Cleaner Grid" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Artificial Bloom" (Doomberg) - "The summer stress test How heat waves are rewiring Europe's power markets" (Energy Evolution) - "Credit Crunch Xponance's McElreath on Credit Inefficiencies" (FICC Focus) - "State of Distressed Debt C Street CEO Henes on Board Dynamics" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Stanford's Duffie on Fed Balance-Sheet Limits" (FICC Focus) - "Credit Crunch Investor Survey 3Q - Rates, IG vs. HY, US vs. EU" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #540 Adam Parker Beyond the AI Bubble Diversifying Portfolios in an Earnings-Driven Market" (Macro Voices) - "The Korean Levered ETFs Shaking Markets All Around the World" (Odd Lots) - "US oil and gas M&A activity slows despite high prices and favorable regulatory regime" (Oil Markets) - "237. Datacenters Let's get Physical with Quinbrook - Jul26" (Redefining Energy) - "EP220 SoH Crisis Takeaways Top Surprises and Non-Surprises" (Super-Spiked) - "The Orange Variable" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "The Fed's silent treatment" (Unhedged) - "Software stocks got crushed. Did they have it coming" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural shift from asset-light software scaling to a hardware-intensive era defined by massive capital expenditures in power and silicon. We analyze the mounting tensions in the global energy transition, the fragmentation of commodity pricing, and the emerging risks to the US dollar's role in a multipolar, resource-constrained economy. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:37 - The AI Infrastructure Build-out and the Tech Rotation 7:28 - Oil, Pipelines, and the Strait of Hormuz 12:20 - The Great Energy Transition: From Renewables to SAF 16:26 - Commodity Trading and Market Microstructure 19:07 - Global Monetary Shifts and the Future of the Dollar 21:10 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Global Polymers Market Evaluation Turkey July 2026" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk Vance more with feeling" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado SAF avança no Brasil e México" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks SAF advances in Brazil and Mexico" (Argus Media) - "Hablando de Mercado SAF avanza en Brasil y México" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 6th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Tech Rises as Iran War Looms Over NATO Summit" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 2nd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV July 1st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 30th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The US Macroeconomic Picture" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Doug Arent and Robin Millican on What's Really Driving Electricity Prices" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "What California's launch of an extended day-ahead market means for the western US" (Energy Evolution) - "Credit Crunch Wellington's Fitzgerald on Convexity Over Carry" (FICC Focus) - "Barry Eichengreen on the History of Global Currencies" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over" (Macro Voices) - "These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets" (Odd Lots) - "How have European fuel oil markets responded to the Middle Eastern conflict" (Oil Markets) - "236. The Bankability of Energy Storage (Solar Power Summit) - Jul26" (Redefining Energy) - "Episode 34 - with Harold de Boer" (Strong Source) - "De-Dollarization, Debasement & Diversification Precious Metals with Nicky Shiels" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Halftime for the markets" (Unhedged) - "New UK prime minister, same bond market" (Unhedged) - "How a Team of Marines Built the Corps' FPV Drone Training Program from a Cold Start" (War on the Rocks) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural shift from software-driven scaling to a battle for physical capacity, focusing on the energy and hardware bottlenecks defining the AI era. We analyze the growing tension between global computational demand and grid stability, alongside the systemic risks embedded in rising credit markets and volatile maritime chokepoints. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:34 - The Power Bottleneck: Can the Grid Handle the AI Boom? 7:09 - Monetary Policy and the Global Credit Crunch 12:28 - Crude Volatility and the Geopolitics of Chokepoints 16:32 - The AI Arms Race: Silicon, Software, and Sovereignty 19:38 - The New Energy Frontier: From NGLs to Nuclear 21:43 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Falando de Mercado gasolina importada no SulSudeste" (Argus Media) - "From the Economist's Chair - Oil in Focus podcast series Episode 2" (Argus Media) - "Power Dispatch Bottlenecked - Pushing Grids to the Limit" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 29th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Markets and Fed Uncertainty" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 26th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 25th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "PCE Reaction and US Eco Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 24th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Making Sense of the Tech Selloff" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 23rd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Michael Cembalest Does the Math on the Energy Transition" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Peak Not Oil" (Doomberg) - "Credit Crunch Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Huw Worthington on ECB, Gilts and Rate Outlook" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden Is The War Really Over and What's Next For Markets" (Macro Voices) - "Baidu's CFO on How It Became a Full-Stack AI Player" (Odd Lots) - "How Lenovo's CFO Is Allocating Capital During One of History's Biggest Booms" (Odd Lots) - "Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right" (Odd Lots) - "Chokepoint geopolitics Implications for Asia's downstream and upstream sectors" (Oil Markets) - "235. European Sovereign Neocloud - Jun26" (Redefining Energy) - "EP219 Sentiment Check AI, Crude Oil, Price Gouging" (Super-Spiked) - "Data Centers aren't the bubble with Eugene McGrane" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "The Rebasement Trade" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "How to surf turbulent markets" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the fundamental collision between the rapid scaling of artificial intelligence and the structural limitations of the global energy and mineral supply chains. We analyze how supply-side inflation, volatile maritime chokepoints, and the intensifying race for critical minerals are rewriting the playbook for global commodities and infrastructure investment. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:35 - Macro Shifts: Interest Rates, Inflation, and the Fed 8:02 - Chokepoints and Crude: Navigating Middle East Volatility 13:29 - The Power Bottleneck: Can the Grid Keep Up with AI? 16:33 - The New Energy Frontier: Nuclear, Renewables, and Carbon Removal 19:44 - Metals in the Machine: The Race for Critical Minerals 21:42 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "From the Economist's Chair - Oil in Focus podcast series Episode 2" (Argus Media) - "Power Dispatch Bottlenecked - Pushing Grids to the Limit" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk Hormuz Movie" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers Minor metals in the age of Artificial Intelligence" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 25th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "PCE Reaction and US Eco Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 24th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 23rd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Market Pullback and Alan Greenspan's Legacy" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 22nd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equity Rally Post-FOMC" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Special Report Alan Greenspan Dies at 100" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Global Economic Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 Pushing the Frontier for carbon removal #301" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "Michael Cembalest Does the Math on the Energy Transition" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Cameco makes the case for large nuclear reactors" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters Huw Worthington on ECB, Gilts and Rate Outlook" (FICC Focus) - "Credit Crunch BlackRock's Rosenberg on Systematic, AI Impacts" (FICC Focus) - "Jeffrey Lacker on What a New Fed Treasury Accord Might Look Like" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "Jeffery Lacker on What a New Fed Treasury Accord Might Look Like" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden Is The War Really Over and What's Next For Markets" (Macro Voices) - "Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right" (Odd Lots) - "Chokepoint geopolitics Implications for Asia's downstream and upstream sectors" (Oil Markets) - "234. Engie, the remarkable turn around (live from Eurelectric Power Summit) - Jun26" (Redefining Energy) - "EP218 WWLRD and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis" (Super-Spiked) - "Data Centers aren't the bubble with Eugene McGrane" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Tech shares zigzag" (Unhedged) - "How to surf turbulent markets" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the shift from frictionless global trade toward a landscape of localized bottlenecks, from the 'pay-for-performance' diplomacy in the Strait of Hormuz to the power constraints stalling the AI revolution. We analyze how institutional opacity at the Federal Reserve and structural supply deficits in nickel and diesel are forcing a fundamental reconfiguration of global commodity hedging. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:34 - Energy Chokepoints: The Strait of Hormuz and Global Supply Risks 6:25 - The New Fed Regime: Warsh, Volatility, and the End of Transparency 12:18 - The AI Power Crunch: Data Centers and the Metals Race 17:54 - Fuel Market Friction: European Diesel and Global Arbitrage 19:55 - Commodity Shifts: From Indonesian Nickel to Brazilian Agriculture 21:52 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Strait Talk Hormuz Movie" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers Minor metals in the age of Artificial Intelligence" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers Nickel and aluminium markets shaped by Indonesia policies and global disruptions" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks Brazilian farmers and El Niño" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado Agro brasileiro e El Ninõ" (Argus Media) - "Virginia is for RGGI Lovers Argus Media" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 22nd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Global Economic Outlook" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 18th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equities and the Fed" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Kevin Warsh's First News Conference as Fed Chair" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction The Fed Decides" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 17th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting as Fed Chair" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 16th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "US and Iran Prepare for Deal Signing, SpaceX Soars" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 From Sightline Climate to Currence" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "WTT AI Fundamentals, Valuation, and the Next Allocator Dilemma" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on the US-Iran Deal, Hormuz Realities, and Iran's Nuclear Future" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Iran Conflict Brief The US-Iran Deal and a New Phase of Accommodation" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Flex Capacitor" (Doomberg) - "How the Iran war is challenging and changing Europe's gas market" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters BE's Anna Wong on Warsh, Fed & Inflation Outlook" (FICC Focus) - "All Options Considered Volatility Forum Singapore 2026" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson There's No Turning Back" (Macro Voices) - "Jeremy Grantham on How to Tell If a Bubble Is About to Burst" (Odd Lots) - "The Iran War's Lasting Scars Across Asia" (Odd Lots) - "How is Europe dealing with its seasonal uptick in road fuel appetite" (Oil Markets) - "234. Engie, the remarkable turn around (live from Eurelectric Power Summit) - Jun26" (Redefining Energy) - "EP218 WWLRD and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis" (Super-Spiked) - "Why is oil so cheap With David Wech" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Kevin Warsh's first remarks" (Unhedged) - "Notes from the FT Global Bond Summit" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the fundamental shift from a software-driven economy to one constrained by the hard realities of resource availability. We analyze how the massive capital influx into AI and space exploration is creating unprecedented pressure on global credit markets, energy grids, and critical maritime choke points. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:43 - The New Era of Capital and Credit Risk 7:16 - Geopolitical Volatility and the Strait of Hormuz 13:27 - The Great Energy Reorientation 16:58 - The AI Boom and the New Compute Economy 19:32 - Commodity Volatility and Agricultural Headwinds 21:40 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Hablando de Mercado gasolina global fragmentada" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks fragmented gasoline market" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado gasolina global fragmentada" (Argus Media) - "Weight of Freight US-Iran conflict reshapes tanker markets" (Argus Media) - "Straits Talk I toll you this would happen" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP54 Middle East Conflict - Fertilizer Demand Destruction" (Argus Media) - "Oil in Focus - June 9th 2026" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 15th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "US-Iran Interim Deal and Fed Chair Warsh" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Money Show SpaceX Market Impact and Solving Social Security" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 12th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 11th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Inflation Data and Market Bullishness" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 10th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "May CPI and Major IPOs" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 9th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "US Economic Outlook and Bond Signals" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 The IPO boom is back, baby! #300" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "Jessica Uhl on the Fractured Energy Transition Why Speed Matters Now" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Flex Capacitor" (Doomberg) - "How battery storage is transforming the power grid" (Energy Evolution) - "How battery storage is transforming the power grid How battery storage is transforming the power grid" (Energy Evolution) - "State of Distressed Debt Ellias on Reorganizations' Global Bazaar" (FICC Focus) - "Credit Crunch AI IPOs, Tech Supply and Credit Without Peace" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald The Migration is Upon us" (Macro Voices) - "Carmen Li's Plan to Build a Futures Market for Compute" (Odd Lots) - "Anjney Midha's Plan to Radically Lower the Price of Compute" (Odd Lots) - "How a Vibecoded Newsletter Is Making the Hay Market More Transparent" (Odd Lots) - "Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades" (Odd Lots) - "Hormuz Headwinds an Opportunity for Latin American Oil Producers" (Oil Markets) - "233. To predict the future, In BNEF we Trust - Jun26" (Redefining Energy) - "Can Trump make a deal with Iran" (Unhedged) - "Why are investors so jumpy" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural shift from software-driven growth to an era defined by the massive capital expenditures required for AI-ready power and cooling. We analyze how geopolitical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and the scramble for nuclear and gas-fired baseload capacity are fundamentally reshaping global inflation and commodity volatility. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:40 - The Great CapEx Surge: Powering the AI Boom 7:10 - Macroeconomic Shifts and Supply-Side Inflation 13:33 - Geopolitical Friction in the Strait of Hormuz 16:24 - Global Fertilizer and Agricultural Volatility 18:26 - The New Era of Energy Transition and Nuclear Resurgence 20:31 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Fertilizer Matters EP53 Middle East Conflict - Impact on Australia's Phosphate Market" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP52 China's Potash Market" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk UNCLOS the strait!" (Argus Media) - "Trading and risk management trends in southeast Asia's agriculture market" (Argus Media) - "Trump Urges End to Fighting After Iran, Israel Trade Missiles" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Money The Rise of Casino Culture and Cash Isn't Always King" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 5th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Reaction to the May Jobs Report" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction US Adds 172,000 Jobs, Boosting Bets on Fed Rate Hike by Year-End" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Torsten Slok and Rebecca Homkes" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Testing the AI Trade; US-Iran Peace Talks Continue" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 2nd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equity and Credit Trends" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "🌎 Mike Schroepfer, ex-Meta CTO, chats $250m for climate & atoms #299" (CTVC by Sightline Climate) - "Contrarian Quality at GQG Partners - Rajiv Jain (EP.505)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Ashley Finan and Amy Roma on Speed, Safety, and Reforming Nuclear Energy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Discussing data centers' grid impacts with Amazon Web Services" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters Lazard's Van Nostrand on Supply-Shock Investing" (FICC Focus) - "Bryan Cutsinger, Peter Ireland, and Will Luther on Lessons Learned from the Fed Framework Review" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #535 Michael Every NAFTA and NAPTHA - Warcraft & Fartcraft" (Macro Voices) - "How CoreWeave Sees the Market for Compute Right Now" (Odd Lots) - "Inside Hudson River Trading's Blistering Token Burn" (Odd Lots) - "How European crude became oversupplied amid deep supply crisis" (Oil Markets) - "232. GB's NESO the cool operator - Jun26" (Redefining Energy) - "The Great CapEx Surge with Erikhans Kok" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Big energy getting bigger" (Unhedged) - "Could we interest you in $675bn in tech stocks" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural shift from global efficiency to national resource hoarding, driven by the massive capital demands of AI and energy insecurity. We analyze how maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the rising cost of physical infrastructure are fundamentally rewriting the mathematics of global commodity finance and central bank policy. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:37 - The Great Macro Shift: Interest Rates and Inflation 6:40 - The Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck 11:49 - Commodity Finance and Global Trade Flows 16:29 - The AI Power Crunch 18:48 - The New Energy Frontier: Hydrogen and Storage 21:04 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Global LPG Conversations US butane flows surge to meet Asia's demand" (Argus Media) - "Base Oils Disrupted War-Driven Supply Tightness" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP51 North American Fertilizers - To Re-Export or Not Re-Export" (Argus Media) - "Power Dispatch Storage Wars - Batteries and Dams in focus" (Argus Media) - "Power Dispatch Storage Wars - Batteries, Dams and Why We Need Both" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV June 1st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 29th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equity and Bond Signals" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Emily Roland & Erin McLaughlin" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Inflation Data amid Equity Push Higher" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 27th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equity Push amid Bond Warnings" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 26th, 2026 (Podcast)" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Stocks Rise as Iran Peace Hopes Hold" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "India's renewable hydrogen projects face cost, delay risks from global conflicts" (Commodities Focus) - "State of Distressed Debt Ensis' Shinder on Middle-Market Workouts" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Morgan Stanley's Hornbach on Oil and Global Rates" (FICC Focus) - "EM Lens Dispersion Creates Cleaner Entry Points in EM Debt" (FICC Focus) - "Brendan Greeley on the 500 Year History of the Dollar" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren Superpower War or Superpower Hug" (Macro Voices) - "The Hidden Plumbing of Commodity Finance" (Odd Lots) - "Gita Gopinath on Why Interest Rates Have Surged All Around the World" (Odd Lots) - "Brendan Greeley on the Real 500-Year History of the Dollar" (Odd Lots) - "Tighter routes How Hormuz disruption is reshaping Asian jet fuel markets" (Oil Markets) - "Episode 33 - with Moritz Heiden and Moritz Seibert" (Strong Source) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the structural shift from just-in-time efficiency to a high-cost reality defined by energy chokepoints and the hardware-driven arms race of AI infrastructure. We analyze how the convergence of geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz and a massive capital expenditure cycle is creating a persistent, supply-driven inflationary floor across global commodities. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:51 - Energy Chokepoints and the Global Oil Shock 8:07 - Macro Uncertainty and the Inflation Ghost 13:50 - The AI Infrastructure Arms Race 17:56 - Commodity Super-cycles and Metal Scarcity 20:09 - The Battery Revolution and Grid Complexity 22:42 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Fertilizer Matters EP50 Southeast Asia's Phosphate Market" (Argus Media) - "Global LPG Conversations New storage data highlights Africa growth" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers China flat steel outlook shaped by exports, costs and risk" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers The Global Aluminium Supply Squeeze" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado Clima e combustíveis fósseis" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks Climate and Fossil Fuels" (Argus Media) - "Chemical Conversations Methanol Trends, Middle East Conflict & Low-Carbon Outlook" (Argus Media) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Brian Levitt & Dan Ives" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 21st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Frank Lee & Mandeep Singh" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Nvidia Reports as SpaceX & OpenAI IPOs Gain Steam" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 20th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 19th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equity Push as Bond Yields Rise" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Speed to Power Christian Bruch on Siemens Energy's Turnaround" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "How the war in Iran is accelerating Asia's energy transformation" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters DWS' Catrambone on Long-End Selloff, Warsh Fed" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #533 Morgan Downey The Return of Oil 101" (Macro Voices) - "Why Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman Built The World's Largest Computer Chip" (Odd Lots) - "Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal on Understanding the Macro Risks" (Odd Lots) - "The global LPG divide Why Europe and Asia are moving in opposite directions" (Oil Markets) - "230. The growing complexity of battery management - May26" (Redefining Energy) - "230. The growing complexity of battery fleet management - May26" (Redefining Energy) - "No Peace, No War and No Flows with Aldo Spanjer" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "The oil reserves dwindle" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines the transition from cyclical price fluctuations to a regime of permanent, geostrategic bottlenecks in global energy and commodity markets. We analyze how the $3 trillion AI capital expenditure cycle is fundamentally colliding with energy supply constraints, from the Strait of Hormuz blockade to the emerging struggle for Arctic and maritime dominance. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:35 - The AI Boom and the New Inflationary Regime 8:59 - Crude Volatility and the Persian Gulf Bottleneck 15:14 - Commodity Supply Squeezes: Copper, Sulfur, and Wheat 17:35 - The Great Energy Transition: From Molecules to Electrons 19:51 - The High-Stakes Race for Arctic and Maritime Dominance 21:56 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 18th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Oil Sanctions, LIRR Strike, Primary Electiona in Focus" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 15th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Equities, Bonds, and Geopolitics" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Seema Shah & Paul Quinsee" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Inflation and Geopolitics Impact Markets" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 13th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Simon White & Ben McMillan" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Conflict Brief How the Iran Standoff is Rewriting US-China Relations" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Arctic Expert Iris Ferguson on Greenland's Resources, Geopolitical Risks" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, and fertilizer shocks drive new rally" (Commodities Focus) - "Copper markets react to high sulfuric acid prices, Middle East conflict" (Commodities Focus) - "From crisis to resilience How renewables are strengthening Europe's energy security" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters NISA Investments' Douglass on Fed, Fiscal Outlook" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #532 Mike Green Record Mechanical Flows" (Macro Voices) - "Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal on Understanding the Macro Risks" (Odd Lots) - "Why SocGen's Albert Edwards Sees Double-Digit Inflation Coming Back" (Odd Lots) - "Samanth Subramanian on the Undersea Cables That Keep the Internet Alive" (Odd Lots) - "US exports hit record high as Middle East war blocks Persian Gulf supply" (Oil Markets) - "229. Climate Tech reinvented from green molecules to green electrons - May26" (Redefining Energy) - "Sulphurous Times with Meena Chauhan" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Process, Process, Process" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "What's bothering bonds" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition explores the breakdown of global trade efficiency as the Strait of Hormuz crisis triggers a shift from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' commodity strategies. We analyze how the massive capital pivot toward AI infrastructure is colliding with a fractured energy supply chain, threatening to destabilize everything from global gas markets to food security. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 0:57 - The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Global Supply Shocks 9:35 - From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case: The New Era of Commodity Trading 13:28 - The AI Infrastructure Boom and the Energy Crunch 16:54 - Trade Flow Realignments: The US, India, and Europe 18:54 - Regulatory Headwinds and the Future of Global Gas 20:51 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Global LPG Conversations Hormuz disruption tests Asian LPG demand" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talks - Breaking Down the Break down" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP49 Middle East Conflict - The Potash Market Anomaly" (Argus Media) - "Tightened Supply Chains Strait of Hormuz & Bitumen Markets" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk False Dawn or Real Don" (Argus Media) - "Global LPG Conversations From shock to softness Why the European propane market eased" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 11th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "US & Iran Wrangle Over Deal Terms to End War" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 8th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 7th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 6th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joumanna Bercetche and Heath Terry" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 5th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Market Impact of AI and Iran" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bob McNally and Jason Bordoff on Handling an Energy Crisis" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "How EU's methane rules could upend global gas trade" (Energy Evolution) - "MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict" (Macro Voices) - "Bonus episode Hedging through the storm - can India's Dated Brent contract reshape risk landscape" (Oil Markets) - "European middle distillate flows shift on Persian Gulf supply constraints" (Oil Markets) - "228. Decentralizing Power The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Energy - May26" (Redefining Energy) - "Commodity Trading's Bumper Q1 with Archie Hunter" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "The Buy America trade" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition explores the dangerous disconnect between massive capital investments in AI and the physical limitations of our global energy grids. We dive into the geopolitical volatility of the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed's strategic signaling, and the high-stakes race to re-map the global energy landscape from Argentina to Africa. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:18 - The Strait of Hormuz Standoff and Global Oil Volatility 6:55 - Monetary Policy Shifts and the Fed’s Leadership Transition 12:37 - The AI Revolution: Driving Tech CapEx and Energy Demand 16:42 - Emerging Market Shifts: From Argentine Shale to African Refineries 21:35 - The Great Energy Transition: Nuclear, Wind, and Renewables 25:24 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Power Dispatch Modulate and Modernise A New Atomic Age" (Argus Media) - "Driving Discussions ARDA South Africa rundown" (Argus Media) - "Hablando de Mercado Refinerías y Vaca Muerta" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks Refineries and Vaca Muerta" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado Refinarias e Vaca Muerta" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 4th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 1st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 30th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene George Bory & Ed Hirs" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Big Tech AI Blowout and Fed Dissent" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Earnings Analysis Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet & Amazon Deliver Earnings" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Fed Holds Rates, Three Officials Dissent" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Seema Shah & Michael Ball" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 29th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Fed Decision and Price Pressures" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Robert Kaplan & Eddie Fishman" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 28th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "US Economic Signals and the Latest on Iran Negotiations" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Conflict Brief Why the UAE Is Leaving OPEC Now" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "The Iran Oil Shock Will it Force the World to Re-think the Future of Energy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Macro Matters BlackRock's Brownback on Global FI Opportunities" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War" (Macro Voices) - "Service company earnings Infrastructure shifts, e-fleets, and Latin American growth" (Oil Markets) - "227. Wind + Grids = Energy Security - May26" (Redefining Energy) - "Escalation Impotence with Doomberg" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "The Fed holds steady" (Unhedged) - "Gloom and boom" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition performs a 'systemic biopsy' on the global energy landscape, revealing that true independence is a myth and control of the entire value chain – from minerals to algorithms – is the new battleground. We unpack the US position, China's strategic dominance, and the precarious balance following Middle East tensions, finding that the current energy crisis isn't just about supply and demand, but a fundamental reset in how we define security. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:16 - The US Energy Position: Powering Forward? 8:22 - Global Energy Security in Crisis 15:38 - Tech, AI, & the Commodities Boom 19:26 - China’s Energy Dominance & Supply Chain Control 22:18 - Middle East Conflict & Regional Fuel Markets 25:30 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "SAF Insights European SAF market holds breath on jet price surge" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP48 Feed Phosphates Market Fundamentals" (Argus Media) - "Chemical Conversations South Korea BTX Rationalisation and Global Impact" (Argus Media) - "MEPC 84 What's at stake in global shipping's decarbonization debate" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk Truce or Dare" (Argus Media) - "Driving Discussions Turbulence Ahead - The Jet Fuel Supply Crisis" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 28th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 27th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Market Fundamentals Drive Rally and Outline US Eco Risks" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 23rd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Anna Wong & Marc Champion" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Artificial Intelligence, Oil and Iran" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "0423 Surveillance Radio Podcast" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Iran Oil Shock Will it Force the World to Re-think the Future of Energy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Ian Bremmer on Navigating a Fragmenting World" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Southern Company CEO Chris Womack on AI, power demand and affordability" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters Jerome Schneider on Funding Market Risks" (FICC Focus) - "Basil Halperin on Macroeconomic Policy in an Age of Transformative AI" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis" (Macro Voices) - "Understanding the Most Viral Chart in Artificial Intelligence" (Odd Lots) - "James Bosworth on the Orange Wave Happening Across Latin America" (Odd Lots) - "Google's Liz Reid on Who Will Own Search in a World of AI" (Odd Lots) - "From Hormuz to Asia the ripple effects on oil trade, prices, and economies" (Oil Markets) - "226. Energy trends and shocks from range anxiety to pump anxiety - Apr26" (Redefining Energy) - "Notes from the FT Global Commodities Summit with Paul Chapman" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "China Shock 2.0" (Unhedged) - "Trading disruption" (Unhedged) - "Why Do Many Western Defense Tech Firms Struggle in Ukraine" (War on the Rocks) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dissects the converging forces of geopolitical instability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the energy transition’s hidden costs. We unpack the oil market’s deceptive calm, Apple’s bid for control amid resource competition, and a looming fertilizer crisis that exposes a fundamental fragility in global food security – revealing how attempts to eliminate risk often merely re-regionalize it. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:23 - Geopolitical Shocks & Crude Oil Markets 10:22 - Apple's Future & the Tech Supply Chain 15:30 - The Energy Transition's Power Demands 21:01 - Food Security & Global Fertilizer Supply 23:53 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Back from the fields Romania and Ukraine crop tours Apr 26" (Argus Media) - "Chemical Conversations Methanol Trends, Price Outlook & Middle East Conflict" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP47 Middle East Conflict - Impact on Urea & Phosphates Markets" (Argus Media) - "Instant Reaction Apple Names John Ternus Next CEO, Tim Cook Becomes Chairman" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 20th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Wavers on Peace Talks After US Seizes Ship" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "S&P Eyes Third Week of 3% Gain" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Netflix Misses, Reed Hastings Steps Down" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 16th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Amos Hochstein on the Strait of Hormuz Opening and Where the War is Headed" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Iran Conflict Brief Will the Ceasefire Hold Analyzing Tehran's High-Stakes Diplomacy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Rajiv Shah on Advancing Universal Abundant Energy Access" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment" (Macro Voices) - "Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom" (Odd Lots) - "225. US Utilities vs Hyperscalers - Apr26" (Redefining Energy) - "Europe's Power Trading Outlook with Xavier Veillard" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "Space ecstasy" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition unpacks the unsettling calm in commodity markets, revealing a deeply fragile system underpinned by geopolitical risks and a disconnect between ‘hard numbers’ and economic reality. We analyze the structural vulnerabilities exposed by the Strait of Hormuz, the surprising surge in Argentine oil exports, and the implications of a shifting global energy landscape – where adaptability is increasingly constrained. From sulfur supply chains to the future of nuclear power, we explore the signals that suggest the current stability is a temporary illusion. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:11 - Geopolitical Risks & Crude Oil Markets 9:51 - US Economic Outlook: Inflation & Credit Risks 16:25 - Copper Supply Chains Under Pressure 19:31 - The Future of Energy: Beyond Renewables 22:41 - Argentina’s Shale Oil Rise & Export Potential 25:16 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Metal Movers Copper's Volatile New Landscape Argus Media" (Argus Media) - "The Power Dispatch (Re)integrating Europe's power market" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers Strait of Hormuz - How Sulphur is Impacting the Copperbelt" (Argus Media) - "Global LPG Conversations" (Argus Media) - "Hablando de Mercado Petróleo de esquisto en Argentina" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks Shale oil surge in Argentina" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado Petróleo de xisto na Argentina" (Argus Media) - "The Biofuels Report RFS Reset - US Biofuel Mandates Evolve" (Argus Media) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Jean Boivin & Peter Tchir" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 13th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 10th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 9th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Promote Giving - A New Model for Performance-Driven Giving (EP.496)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Dan Steingart on Battery Innovation and the Future of Energy Storage" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "State of Distressed Debt Weber, Aguirre on Attaining Owner DNA" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Fed Past & Future with BNY's Reinhart" (FICC Focus) - "Kris Mitchener on What Actually Anchors the Price Level" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis" (Macro Voices) - "Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf" (Odd Lots) - "The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years" (Odd Lots) - "Hormuz chokepoint Global scramble for diesel supply" (Oil Markets) - "224. From Wind farms (yield) to Datacenters (growth) - Apr26" (Redefining Energy) - "Guns and butter and credit" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dives deep into the escalating energy crisis, moving beyond price volatility to examine the systemic vulnerabilities reshaping global commodity markets. We unpack the precarious situation in Iran, the logistical challenges in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the financial system’s reliance on tariffs is creating a dangerously fragile equilibrium. Plus, a look at the promising, yet crucial, advancements in the I-REC market and its potential for verifiable renewable energy impact. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:12 - Energy Market Shockwaves & Price Volatility 9:54 - Geopolitical Risk & Investment Responses 18:23 - Securing the Strait of Hormuz: Military & Logistical Challenges 22:20 - Iran's Internal Stability & Regional Conflict 25:22 - Renewable Energy Markets: I-RECs & the Transition 28:11 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Chemical Conversations BTX Market Pressures Amid Middle East Conflict" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers How the Iran Conflict is Impacting Steel Markets" (Argus Media) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Eric Van Nostrand & Scott DiMaggio" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 6th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Ceasefire Push Keeps Markets on Edge" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 2nd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Oil Surges on Fears of Prolonged War" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Trump Threatens to Escalate Iran War in Primetime Speech" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 1st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Tightens Grip on Strait of Hormuz" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bruce MacDonald - The Playbook for Building a Mid-Sized Endowment from Scratch (EP.495)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Iran Conflict Brief Ali Ansari on What's Going on Inside Iran" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Iran Conflict Brief The War's Lasting Impact on Gulf States" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "In the fast-growing Brazilian I-RECs market, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead" (Commodities Focus) - "Macro Matters The Auto ABS Landscape With BI's Chadehumbe" (FICC Focus) - "All Options Considered Iran War, Hormuz and Market Tails" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #526 Matt Barrie Pay To PrAI" (Macro Voices) - "Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed" (Odd Lots) - "Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day" (Odd Lots) - "Nigeria's Dangote refinery takes spotlight amid Middle East conflict" (Oil Markets) - "How an energy crisis unfolds" (Unhedged) - "Reopening the Strait of Hormuz & Saving Downed Pilots" (War on the Rocks) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dissects the interconnected pressures reshaping global markets, from the energy crisis and commodity trade flows to the Fed’s precarious balancing act and the growing risks in private credit. We explore how logistical bottlenecks, shifting currency dynamics, and the illusion of liquidity are creating a uniquely vulnerable economic landscape. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:06 - Energy Markets Under Pressure: Geopolitics & Supply Shocks 9:09 - Commodity Trade Flows & The Rise of the Yuan 15:34 - The US Economy: Fed Policy, AI & Inflation 19:42 - Private Credit Risks: Defaults & Liquidity Squeeze 23:30 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Fertilizer Matters EP44 Chinese Ammonia Market" (Argus Media) - "Strait Talk Crisis in the Gulf" (Argus Media) - "Metal Movers How the Iran Conflict Is Impacting Global Non‑Ferrous Metals Markets" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 31st, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 30th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea With Tom Keene Anna Wong and Joumanna Bercetche" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Robert Kaplan and Randy Schwimmer" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Richard Clarida & Francois Trahan" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Kieran Goodwin - Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Javier Blas on CERAWeek and the Energy Market's Reckoning" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Credit Crunch GSAM's McClain on High Yield Risks, Resilience" (FICC Focus) - "Credit Crunch Monroe's Uddin on Software, Middle-Market Lending" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Fed Communications With Bloomberg's Mike McKee" (FICC Focus) - "Goldman CIO Marco Argenti on the Warp-Speed Improvements in AI" (Odd Lots) - "CERAWEEK 2026 With Hormuz shut, who fills the gap" (Oil Markets) - "Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, Asia's LPG scramble as Middle East flows stall" (Oil Markets) - "Hormuz on a chokepoint, Asia's LPG scramble as Middle East Gulf flows stall" (Oil Markets) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dissects the cascading vulnerabilities reshaping global energy and finance. From escalating oil supply shocks and a private credit market bracing for defaults to India’s pragmatic energy transition, we explore how geopolitical risks are forcing a fundamental re-evaluation of stability and control. We close with a look at how nations are prioritizing security over efficiency – and the implications for the international order. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:18 - Geopolitical Risks & Global Oil Supply 10:22 - Financial Market Volatility & Private Credit Concerns 15:34 - Commodity Trade Shifts & Economic Power 20:35 - Natural Gas Markets: Infrastructure & Trade Realities 24:56 - India's Energy Transition & Decarbonization Challenges 29:00 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Argus Metals Movers Turkey's flat steel trade patterns set to shift in 2026" (Argus Media) - "Chemical Conversations Assessing the Middle East conflict's impact on the global ethylene outlook" (Argus Media) - "Falando de Mercado Desafios do gás natural no Brasil" (Argus Media) - "Market Talks Challenges in Brazil's natural gas market" (Argus Media) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 23rd, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea With Tom Keene Gary Gensler" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea With Tom Keene Jason Trennert and Sir Mark Rowley" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Iran Conflict Brief The High Cost of Attacking Energy Infrastructure" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Michael Gerrard and Jeff Holmstead on Next Chapter in US Climate Policy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Decarbonizing India's industrial, power sectors challenges and roadmaps" (Commodities Focus) - "CERAWeek War, energy security, and the redrawing of global trade flows" (Energy Evolution) - "The math behind emissions Why carbon accounting matters now more than ever" (Energy Evolution) - "Credit Crunch Proskauer's Boyko on Outcomes in Private Credit" (FICC Focus) - "State of Distressed Debt Davis Polk's Resnick on Emerging LME Trends" (FICC Focus) - "How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz" (Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch) - "Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran" (Odd Lots) - "How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further" (Odd Lots) - "War in Iran Is Redrawing the Map for Natural Gas" (Odd Lots) - "Europe's jet fuel prices rally to record highs on Persian Gulf shut-in" (Oil Markets) - "221. LNG - Hormuz - Apocalypse Now - Mar26" (Redefining Energy) - "Molecule Contagion with Jeff Currie" (The HC Commodities Podcast) - "How To Trade Macro In A War" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "136 - The Middle Corridor Reality Vs. Rhetoric" (The Red Line) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dissects the fragile equilibrium in the Iran conflict, where a 'tacit bargain' over energy flows is preventing outright escalation – but at a rising cost. We explore how private credit, dwindling missile stockpiles, and a collapsing fertilizer supply chain are interconnected, creating a uniquely vulnerable global system. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:10 - Iran's Conflict & Geopolitical Power Plays 9:15 - The Strait of Hormuz & Global Oil Markets 16:51 - Private Credit, Emerging Markets & Commodity Risk 20:42 - Energy Transition, Fertilizer Supply & Food Security 24:03 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Falando de Mercado Asfalto venezuelano retorna ao mercado" (Argus Media) - "Fertilizer Matters EP44 Sustainable & Specialty Fertilizers Market" (Argus Media) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joumanna Bercetche and Julian Lee" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 16th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Trump's Demand for Hormuz Support Faces Resistance" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Judge Rejects Subpoenas of Fed in Powell Case, DOJ to Appeal" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ziad Daoud & Michael Nierenberg" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 13th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Trump Warns Iran of New Strikes, Private Credit Concerns" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ed Morse & Audrey Childe-Freeman" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 12th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "The Risks of a Prolonged Iran War" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Ryan Lovell - Chainlink The Infrastructure Pipes for Multi-Chain Finance (EP.491)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Iran Conflict Brief A 'Tacit Bargain' Protecting Gulf Energy" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Credit Crunch AGL's Comer on CLOs, Active Management and Growth" (FICC Focus) - "EM Lens War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren't Kind to EM Economies" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY's Granet" (FICC Focus) - "Credit Crunch Iran War, Software Rout and Credit a Safe Haven" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict" (Macro Voices) - "War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles" (Odd Lots) - "What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries" (Odd Lots) - "War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before" (Odd Lots) - "Uncomfortable moments in private credit" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dissects the escalating oil crisis, revealing how strategic reserves are insufficient to address a sustained supply disruption. We explore the interconnected vulnerabilities of the global energy market, from the Strait of Hormuz to Russia's rising leverage and a looming two-tiered access dynamic, and how the financial system is responding – or failing to respond – to a new era of geopolitical scarcity. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:05 - Oil Market Shocks & Strategic Reserves 10:30 - Financial System Risks in a Volatile World 20:08 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel" (Odd Lots) - "Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on Tokenization and Prediction Markets for Everything" (Odd Lots) - "Henry Blodget on the Software Selloff Hysteria and the Problem for OpenAI" (Odd Lots) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition dives into the hidden costs of the AI revolution, from soaring energy demands and preemptive action by major investors to the fragile stability of global commodity markets. We unpack the geopolitical pressures reshaping oil pricing, the looming risks in private credit, and the surprising disconnect between tech valuations and underlying fundamentals, revealing a ‘system tax’ levied on the entire financial landscape. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - AI's Energy Appetite & Tech Valuations 4:24 - Iran Geopolitical Conflict & Global Oil Markets 7:19 - US Trade Policy & Presidential Tariffs 10:05 - US Economic & Industrial Resilience 12:28 - Global Energy & Commodity Markets 14:51 - Regional Energy & Commodity Markets 17:08 - Commodity Supercycle Potential: Gold & Energy Focus 19:08 - Private Credit Risks in Energy & Software 21:08 - Financial Market Dynamics & Infrastructure 23:08 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Chris Verrone & Constantine Courcoulas" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Nvidia Fails to Stoke AI Trade" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Instant Reaction Trump Touts 'Turnaround' in State of the Union" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "MacroVoices #521 Jeff Currie The Great Rotation" (Macro Voices) - "James van Geelen on His Viral AI Doom Scenario" (Odd Lots) - "Asian refiners weigh impact on crude flows from geopolitical developments" (Oil Markets) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition unpacks the growing disconnect between U.S. economic resilience and waning faith in its institutions, as capital flows strategically reposition amid geopolitical risk and a shifting global landscape. We examine how AI is accelerating this recalibration, and whether Wells Fargo’s ambitious pivot signals a controlled descent or a more chaotic fragmentation of the financial system. Explore the full visual digest at https://www.pers-int.com 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - Dollar Strength & Global Capital Flows 9:10 - Commodity & Energy Transition Dynamics 14:11 - Trade Policy & Tariff Impacts 17:20 - AI & Economic Transformation 20:29 - Geopolitical Risk & Energy Security 23:00 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Global LPG Conversations Could Ethane's Boom be Stalling" (Argus Media) - "Stocks Seek Cautious Recovery as Tariff Uncertainty Lingers" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "What's holding back Europe's hydrogen ambitions" (Energy Evolution) - "Macro Matters US Rates Outlook With Goldman's Marshall" (FICC Focus) - "Jared Sleeper on Which Software Companies Will Survive the SaaSpocalypse" (Odd Lots) - "A16Z's David George on How Private and Public Markets Fused Into One" (Odd Lots) - "Jamee Moudud on the Intellectual Roots of Zohranomics" (Odd Lots) - "Introducing 'Behind the Money' Can Wells Fargo make it in investment banking" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition examines a world undergoing a fundamental restructuring, moving beyond frictionless globalization. We dissect the converging forces of geopolitical risk, technological disruption, and financial volatility, revealing a landscape defined by fragmentation and strategic competition. Discover how to adapt and thrive amidst this new economic order. 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - Macroeconomic Shifts & Capital Flows 8:48 - Geopolitical Risk & Commodity Flows 13:41 - Technological Disruption & AI Impact 18:04 - Financial Market Volatility & Credit Conditions 20:59 - Energy Transition & Critical Minerals 22:59 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV February 10th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV February 9th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV February 5th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV February 6th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV February 4th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Matt Whineray – Leading New Zealand Super Fund (Capital Allocators, EP.108)" (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry) - "Laura Holgate on the Promise and Perils of Nuclear Innovation" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Power surge The impact of energy addition on environmental commodity markets" (Energy Evolution) - "Ricardo Hausmann Explains How the Venezuelan Economy Collapsed" (Odd Lots) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

This week's edition unpacks the interconnected vulnerabilities shaping global markets, from the Federal Reserve's precarious position to the escalating tensions in commodity supply chains. Maya and Alex reveal how geopolitical risk, technological disruption, and credit stress are converging to create a uniquely complex and potentially volatile landscape, demanding a reassessment of conventional investment strategies. 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - Federal Reserve Policy & Macroeconomic Outlook 9:31 - Geopolitical Risk & Commodity Markets 14:16 - Technological Disruption & Market Dynamics 17:56 - Restructuring & Credit Market Stress 20:00 - Energy Transition & Critical Minerals 22:00 - Conclusion Referenced podcasts (for further listening): - "Argus Weekly Korea Commodities Insights Episode 3" (Argus Media) - "Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "From data centers to EVs to wind turbines Copper's critical role in the age of electrification" (Energy Evolution) - "Credit Crunch Beach Point’s Hunsaker on Structured Landscape" (FICC Focus) - "Macro Matters Morgan Stanley’s Hornbach on Dollar, Yield Curve" (FICC Focus) - "Scott Sumner on Monetary Policy Confusion in Our Current Policy Debates" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth) - "Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on the Risks of Kevin Warsh" (Odd Lots) - "Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run" (Odd Lots) - "The incredible shrinking dollar" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the podcasts listed above.

Today's episode unpacks the accelerating interconnectedness of global markets, revealing how shifts in one area rapidly reverberate across others. Maya and Alex explore the critical interplay of Fed policy, geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, and the energy transition, arguing that adaptive resilience – not predictable certainty – will define success in the coming months. 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - Federal Reserve Policy & Market Impact 8:39 - Geopolitical Risk & Commodity Markets 12:59 - Technological Disruption & Investment 17:19 - Financial Market Volatility & Risk Management 20:00 - Energy Transition & Critical Minerals 22:00 - Conclusion Referenced podcasts (for further listening): - "Argus Weekly Korea Commodities Insights Episode 3" (Argus Media) - "Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Michael Webber on What's Behind Rising Energy Costs" (Columbia Energy Exchange) - "Credit Crunch Beach Point's Hunsaker on Structured Landscape" (FICC Focus) - "MacroVoices #517 Justin Huhn Uranium at The Tipping Point" (Macro Voices) - "Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on the Risks of Kevin Warsh" (Odd Lots) - "Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run" (Odd Lots) - "The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "The incredible shrinking dollar" (Unhedged) - "Airpower, Advice, and D.C. Favorites with David Deptula" (War on the Rocks) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the podcasts listed above.