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In this episode Ben Woodfinden and Shannon Phillips talk with National President of UNIFOR Lana Payne and discuss:

• Stellantis, subsidies and Trump Pressure 03:02:18

• Government Tools and Leverage 05:49:12

• On a Team Canada Strategy, and potential divergence between federal and provincial governments 10:36:15

• On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector 22:00:01

• On Labour Power and Policy 32:06:10

• Unifors Position and it’s members 42:20:10

Key Takeaways

On Stellantis, Subsidies and Trump Pressure

• PAYNE: This is the most blatant example of a corporation appeasing Trump. Canada must play hardball, enforce commitments negotiated in 2023, and make companies feel consequences when they move Canadian jobs.

• PAYNE: Failure to act risks a domino effect — if Stellantis escapes accountability, others like GM could follow.

• PHILLIPS: What matters now is not rhetoric but tools — what governments can actually do to make firms fulfill their obligations.
  

On Government Tools and Leverage

• PAYNE: Canada has powerful levers if it chooses to use them, beginning with a tariff-remission strategy that rewards companies meeting Canadian production commitments and penalizes those that don’t.

• PAYNE: If you’re going to sell here, you need to build here. Market access, energy supply, and public subsidies are all bargaining chips.

• PAYNE: Governments can no longer rely only on incentives. The world has changed — we must use sticks as well as carrots.
  

On a Team Canada Strategy

• PHILLIPS: The provinces, especially Ontario, have meaningful leverage; their willingness to act matters.

• WOODFINDEN: Emerging divergence between Ford and Carney that was not there a few months ago. Ford is fighting openly while Ottawa appears more cautious.

• PAYNE: Canada risks fragmentation as provinces pursue separate interests. We need a strong Team Canada approach uniting unions, industry, and all levels of government.

• PAYNE: Trump’s trade posture is an existential threat. He’s coming for our auto jobs.

• PAYNE: Need to think about and plan for long-term resilience. We can’t just export raw materials and help someone else build their economy — we must build our own industrial base.
  

On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector

• PAYNE: Before Trump’s trade war, Canada was finally rebuilding its footprint — battery plants, EV supply chains, and domestic R&D. U.S. backtracking threatens that progress.

• PAYNE: Warns that China’s massive overproduction of vehicles could soon flood the global market. Canada must plan now to compete.
  

On Labour Power and Policy

• PAYNE: Section 107 is a very dangerous path. It conditions employers to expect government rescue instead of bargaining fairly. Using 107 will not bring labour peace; it prolongs workplace problems.

• PHILLIPS: Government may need clearer guardrails before invoking 107.

• PAYNE: You don’t get to use 107 — that’s the starting point. Supports mediation and conciliation instead of forced arbitration.

• WOODFINDEN: Notes shifts in the political landscape as unionized and blue-collar voters move toward conservatives.
  

Shifting Political Coalitions and Realignments 

• PAYNE: Unifor stays non-partisan. We build our own power. Every party is chasing the working vote, which strengthens labour’s influence.

• PAYNE: The voter shift is about bread-and-butter issues — housing, wages, inflation — not ideology. People felt heard.

  
  

  
  

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In this episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• Changes to the timing and presentation of the upcoming Federal Budget (1:08)
• The latest in pipeline politics with Premier Danielle Smith proposing a new West Coast pipeline and the revival of Keystone XL talks (25:02)
• The state of Canada's auto sector and the existential threat it faces (41:10)
• What we’re paying attention to (51:56) 

Key takeaways:

On changes to the budget:

• MEREDITH: We learned something about Carney and how he operates from this move to the fall. Wasn't in the platform.
• MEREDITH: Carney was Governor of the Bank of England when the UK changed budget timing to the fall, not a coincidence.
• BOESSENKOOL: You're forecasting a budget six months in advance before it starts happening. So that's a benefit when you're spending, but it's downside when you're doing revenue.
• PHILLIPS: This will aid policy design and help stakeholders navigate budgets by clarifying upcoming allocations. With Carney's changes to the cabinet, stakeholders can now better align their requests with existing allocations.
• MEREDITH: Change is important because this is the first of many big steps this government is going to take where it departs from the Trudeau government. Carney government less focused on things like spending on social policy, transfers to people, transfers to governments that aren't actually about building assets. Stakeholders should think about this in social policy area.

On pipelines:

• PHILLIPS: A West Coast pipeline is unlikely to succeed unless supportive Indigenous nations along the route agree—constitutional treaty rights are a near‑insurmountable hurdle that C-5 cannot override. Prince Rupert is probably unrealistic, and overall demand uncertainty means such a project would likely require public backing.
• BOESSENKOOL: There’s a real question whether only governments can now build major pipelines given Indigenous and provincial veto points. Hypothetical pipeline talk should not distract investors from concrete projects that could attract real capital.
• MEREDITH: Provincial sponsorship of pipeline projects can be constructive and may vindicate past federal intervention, but meaningful progress requires BC’s buy‑in. Routing and negotiations will be protracted, and reuse or expansion of existing routes (for example, further using or adding capacity to Trans Mountain) is worth considering.
• PHILLIPS: BC’s current government is more open to development—including filling or expanding TMX and port dredging—than past governments, so political opposition is not as monolithic as before and could enable different outcomes than prior fights.
• WOODFINDEN: If Conservatives had won federally, they would likely have pursued repeal or major reform of laws that deter investment (C-69, the tanker ban), testing whether regulatory barriers rather than macro market conditions are the primary obstacle to pipeline investment.

On the auto sector:

• MEREDITH: The U.S. objective is explicit—shift vehicle assembly (high‑value jobs) to U.S. soil while allowing Canada to remain a parts supplier; Canada must defend its assembly capacity to preserve advanced manufacturing and national economic sovereignty.
• BOESSENKOOL: This is a very serious threat that requires a clear Canadian auto strategy and cautious negotiation—don’t rush into deals with Trump that could unravel later; Canada should fight rather than fold to protect jobs and exports.
• PHILLIPS: Losing large numbers of auto jobs would trigger wide economic fallout requiring a whole‑of‑government fiscal and policy response (comparable in scale to pandemic-era measures) to support affected workers, communities, and domestic demand.

In the inaugural episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Director of MBP Intelligence Ben Woodfinden talks with Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips to get their insights into:

• The ongoing trade war, the return of Trump’s 51st state talk and the upcoming CUSMA renegotiations (1:38).
• The PBO’s fiscal warnings and the federal fiscal outlook in advance of the first Carney budget (14:45).
• The NDP leadership race, relevance and future direction (29:23). 
• Parliament’s return - what we’ve noticed and what to watch for (46:27).

Key takeaways:

On tariffs and trade: 

• Boessenkool: No one other than Trump himself knows what he’s thinking, policymakers need to show some humility and plan accordingly. Canada should plan for the worst and hope for the best, including the potential cancellation of CUSMA.
• Meredith: The government is pursuing a two-track trade strategy, addressing both existing tariffs and renegotiating CUSMA. Sectoral tariffs are increasing and the government is becoming less vocal and quiet in response, including less direct engagement with stakeholders. 
• Phillips: The provinces will increasingly play a role in tariff response due to the regional specific impacts of tariffs.

On PBO and Fiscal Outlook: 

• Meredith: It's likely true that the deficit will come in somewhere between 2-3 % of GDP, but according to PBO’s own analysis, we are still on a sustainable fiscal track. It’s important to note that the parliamentary budget officer is interim. It may explain some of his public pronouncements.
• Boessenkool: We don't need a government-funded body to tell us what the fiscal situation is. That's the job of the opposition to criticize and the job of the government to put forward a plan. Let the opposition do the hard work of opposing, don’t outsource it. 

On NDP:

• Phillips: The NDP leadership race boils down to a question of whether members want a leader who will prioritize making them feel good or one who will prioritize winning. McPherson is likely that person but she needs to distinguish herself, grab some of the attention in the attention economy and try and define herself as in the camp of provincial New Democrats who want to win, not just feel good.
• Woodfinden: Conservatives successfully stole many NDP working class votes at the last election, and so face a challenge now. They need a stronger NDP but they also need to keep those working class votes, which also means not wanting the return of an NDP that can appeal to those voters.