If you’re a regular “Marketplace” listener, you’ve probably heard of the Fed’s Beige Book. But have you heard of the Tealbook? In this episode, we pull back the curtain on the Fed’s fortune-telling report that helps monetary policy mandarins ideate on possible economic scenarios. Plus: AI tools juggle search dominance with profitability, the GDP report shows consumers still haven’t stopped spending and we wrap up our sojourn in Cumberland County, Tennessee.

Spent a lot on health care last year? So did employers. The cost of employee health insurance benefits rose 4 to 5% faster than inflation in 2024. That’s not unusual, but rising premiums do put a dent in corporate budgets. In this episode, why health care costs aren’t slowing down. Plus, a California port aims for total decarbonization by the end of the decade and once-incarcerated firefighters face significant barriers trying to find a job.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says President Trump’s strategies of “energy dominance, deregulation and non-inflationary growth,” will bring down bond yields even if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut interest rates. Will it work? Experts are skeptical. Also in this episode: Disney tries “skinny” streaming bundles, the women behind one of LA’s few lesbian bars talk strategy for reopening after the fires and small businesses show us how they’re increasing productivity.

You know that national debt we’re always talking about? It’s at $36 trillion right now, and around $7 trillion of that is owed … back to the U.S. government. We’ll explain. Also in this episode: Oil prices will be moved by more than tariffs this year, AI firms are spending big on Super Bowl ads and lenders see an uptick in business loan demand.

Between President Trump’s changeable policy plans and sticky inflation in some sectors, everyone participating in this economy is, in a word, uncertain. In this episode, we hear how manufacturers, importers and consumers are dealing with that uneasy feeling and get some perspective from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee. Plus, the new Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, has unprecedented access to the Treasury’s chief payment system. Should we be worried?

When the Federal Reserve changes its key interest rate, borrowing costs adjust accordingly … usually. There are times, though, when they move in the opposite direction. In this episode, we break down interest rate sensitivity and why borrowing rates don’t always align with the Fed’s moves. Plus, we visit the Save a Lot grocery store and Good Samaritans charity in Crossville, Tennessee — two places that support the area’s aging residents, including those who live on low or fixed incomes.

As America’s population ages, so does its workforce. That’s why this week, Kai and ADP’s Nela Richardson are visiting Cumberland County, Tennessee, where a third of residents are 65 and older. In this episode, we talk to an exterminator, a part-time dance teacher, a hospital president and a minister-turned-shop owner to illustrate that  Cumberland’s aging population brings new opportunities — and challenges.

A series of policy changes are hitting the economy, but some aspects of consumer behavior have yet to demonstrate change. A Federal Reserve survey shows Americans still gauge future inflation at 3%. And we continue to spend 40% of our food budget on eating out and 60% on meals at home. Also in this episode, insurance and property taxes contribute to the housing affordability crisis, steel and aluminum are tariffed together but serve different markets, and only some states require vehicle safety inspections.

The sun isn’t always shining and wind isn’t always blowing, but what if there was an always-available renewable energy source? In this episode, we take a trip to the Port of Los Angeles, where scientists are trying to capture energy directly from Pacific Ocean waves. Plus: New England faces a worker shortage brought on by an aging population, the U.S. steel industry’s days of market dominance are over and “AI accelerationists” want the technology to advance ASAP.

In 2017, President Trump overhauled the federal tax structure. Eight years later, the corporate tax part of the deal hasn’t quite “paid for itself,” as promised. But the personal income part, which is set to expire this year, did help some lower-income Americans pay off debt and keep up with the cost of essentials. Will Congress act to renew it? Also in this episode: The legal outlook on Elon Musk gaining access to the Treasury’s payment system; Los Angeles fire property insurance payouts could reach historic levels; and the services sector is stronger than manufacturing right now.

People feel richer — and spend accordingly — when their assets rise in value. That’s called the wealth effect. But when folks get their retirement account statements for Q1 of 2025, they may feel the opposite, since most of those accounts lost value. Will Americans pull back on their spending as a result? Plus, subcompact cars steer into the sunset, farmers are pessimistic about tariffs, and very small businesses can be a bellwether of economic trends.

Just how expensive has homeownership become? To afford a typical home, households need an income of about $117,000 right now — a 50% increase from $78,000 in January 2020, according to a Bankrate report. Over the same five years, wages rose  just 27%. What gives? Also in this episode: The dollar’s value drops, Europe weighs economic independence amid tariff troubles and falling enrollment shrinks budgets at rural public schools.

“Recession” recently peaked on Google Trends — a sure sign Americans are sweating the possibility of an economic downturn. But what do the numbers say? Well, the hard data so far reflects a pretty strong economy. But the soft, economic-vibes data, is … less optimistic. Plus: Government credits help Tesla and other EV-makers stay afloat, liquefied natural gas exports are slated to double in five years and advocates help young people who’ve aged out of foster care find resources.

About 8.9 million. That’s how many U.S. workers worked more than one job in February — an all-time high, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We spoke with some workers holding multiple job about why this economy necessitates a second (or third) gig. Plus, economist Mohamed El-Erian on DOGE and recession odds, and we break down why the U.S. energy mix probably won’t change much under President Donald Trump.

Mortgage rates have fallen recently to 6.6% for a 30-year fixed. But will it be enough to bring prospective homebuyers off the sidelines? Not according to one survey, which found some buyers are holding out for rates below 5%. Also in this episode: The Trump administration cut USDA programs that allowed schools and food banks to buy fresh, local food. And the U.S. wants Chinese consumers to spend more, but that won’t be easy.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen sharply in the last few weeks, thanks largely to tariff flip-flopping and overall economic uncertainty. Typically, significant sustained changes in a currency’s value indicate the relative strength of a nation’s economy. Should we be worried? Also: New tariffs triggered a January import rush that will ding GDP, student loan borrowers are temporarily blocked from income-driven repayment plans and Amazon pulls back on its brick-and-mortar grocery biz.

Just 44% of employees feel confident about the next six months at their company, a Glassdoor survey found — the lowest in nine years. Thank government layoffs, tariff uncertainty and a toughening job market. Are these negative predictions warnings of a coming recession? Also in this episode, the overall cost of food at home was flat in February, electric grid battery storage grew 66% in the U.S. last year, and Angelenos worry dumped wildfire debris could be toxic.

Back in 2018 — the last time President Donald Trump led a trade war — some businesses got tariff exemptions if they imported goods that couldn’t be sourced in the U.S. Was the process to apply smooth and transparent? Well … no. Will today’s businesses have the same opportunity? That remains to be seen. Also in this episode: Home improvement stores launch AI helper bots, corporate forecasts aim low, and small businesses hesitate to hire.

Terri Bromberg lost her home of 20 years in the Los Angeles fires. Rather than rebuild, the artist and professor chose to sell and move elsewhere. Prospective buyers put in bids without being able to see the plot of land in person. In this episode, Bromberg and her real estate agent tell us about the process of selling in the Pacific Palisades since the wildfires. Plus: China announces retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. agricultural products, Americans lose confidence in their financial futures, and why Tesla’s stock price has slumped.

Overall employment dropped last month, according to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, employers added jobs to the economy. Weird, right? Well, two surveys make up the monthly report — one of households and one of employers. And they can disagree. Plus, more part-time workers want full-time jobs, Gap is on a roll, and professional basketball has become a game regulations.

The Federal Reserve may be steering the economy through another trade war. But this time, the inflation of the last few years complicates its task. Also in this episode: Unemployed Americans struggle to snag new positions, banks’ unrealized losses jump, and an aerospace tech startup sets up shop in Cumberland County, Tennessee.

Ask an economist what’s driving decision-making right now, and the answer may well be “uncertainty.” In this episode, the unpredictable environment fuels a range of change: The labor market softens, surveys of the service sector point in opposite directions and Treasury yields sink. Plus, the Commerce Department just dissolved two expert advisory groups, putting the trustworthiness of future federal data into question.

Consumers say they’re fed up with inflation, then they keep spending. But their behavior could be catching up with their anxiety, an economist told us. The clues are in data released today by the Commerce Department. Also in this episode: Can you live on just 13 gallons of water a day? One water-saving group thinks it’s possible. Plus, we look into how cities, farmers and compost brokers are tackling organic waste.

They’re here: President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico begin today, as well as an additional 10% tax on goods from China. In this episode, we hear from business owners who are caught in the middle of trade policy chaos and explain why Texas is likely to suffer in particular. Plus, Forest Service layoffs devastate rural western mountain towns, and small warehouses are in demand but hard to come by.

As bird flu proliferates across U.S. farms, infecting chickens, cows and even humans, some public health experts worry that that funding to deal with it has been inadequate. Above all, they say we need stronger incentives for farmers and farmworkers to test for and report cases of the virus. Plus, the manufacturing sector’s outlook remains mixed, two-thirds of Americans say they have been victims of a financial scam and what could happen if we removed government spending from GDP calculations.

In the past decade, filming outside of Los Angeles has become a cost-effective option for many major studios. And lower housing costs are driving many lighting techs, grips and gaffers to follow. With roughly 13,000 homes lost in January’s wildfires, staying in LA will be even harder for those workers. Also on the show, the rising cost of utilities and a second act for frozen foods.

Capital goods orders picked up in January — that’s stuff businesses buy that’ll last a while, like tools and equipment. Is it a sign business owners have money to spend? Or, have tariffs fears and economic uncertainty spooked them into buying things before it’s too late? Also in this episode: Unemployment claims tick up (and that’s not even counting laid-off federal workers), architects stress fire resilience in rebuilding and used car prices rise.

The second Trump administration has made spending cuts a priority  — already, the president has enacted a funding freeze and laid off thousands of federal workers. Reduced government spending will have major ripple effects, though, like shrinking the nation’s GDP. Also in this episode: Trump’s move toward Russia threatens longstanding relationships with European allies and Instacart forecasts a growth slowdown.

Home Depot, which makes most of its money from renovations, said small projects are driving its sales. That suggests homeowners are staying put — maybe improving the home they have while waiting for a clearer picture of the economy. Meanwhile, home prices just keep rising, although market volatility has cooled off. Also in this episode: When Canadian energy tariffs take effect, New Englanders will pay up and consumer confidence drops amid inflation anxiety.

The top 10% of earners account for half of all consumer spending in the U.S., a new study shows. In other words, if the goods and services Americans buy in a year were a pie, those with the highest incomes have been shelling out for a massive slice. Where does that leave everyone else? Also in this episode: Investors and the AI industry await Nvidia’s earnings report this week and tariffs threaten a complex auto manufacturing supply chain.

American consumers agree: High prices aren’t going anywhere. All that stress about inflation, and throw in the impact of tariffs, heightens uncertainty, which translates into negative economic sentiment. But the severity of concern varies between Republicans and Democrats — a lot. Also in this episode: Private data can’t replace government data, oil tankers “go dark” and though the travel industry enjoyed healthy growth last year, new Trump policies could affect the upward trend.

Last month, key federal data sets were removed from government websites following actions by the Donald Trump administration, and researchers rushed to preserve the information. David Van Riper of IPUMS, an organization dedicated to improving public access to government data, talked to “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal about the importance of these statistics. Plus, Walmart expands and diversifies, ChatGPT has lots of rivals as well as a huge user base, and the U.S. solar industry adapts without Biden-era tax credits.

Nearly half of consumers say they’ve taken action to align their spending with their moral views since the November election, a new Harris Poll shows. That includes boycotting brands based on campaign contributions, or even looking for ways to opt out of consumerism altogether. In this episode, could politically driven shopping habits make an impact on corporations? Plus, Etsy flounders, homebuilders lose confidence and Amazon Alexa and Apple’s Siri play virtual assistant catch-up.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. That number tells us where the economy was headed coming into this year. But with uncertainty surrounding tariffs, that story has taken a turn. Plus, how sinking credit scores caused by student loan delinquencies could hurt the overall economy, and the dramatic rise in modern-day train heists.

At the national level, 2.5% is the lowest the unemployment rate has ever been … and that was for just two months in 1953. We’re at 4% right now, but the labor market is pretty tight. In this episode, we ask: How low can unemployment go? Plus, Samsung buys back stock and retires shares, the Fed is thinking about tariffs and a program that teaches refugees to drive runs out of gas, thanks to President Trump’s immigration policy.

Tons of sellers listed their homes in January, after months of waiting in vain for mortgage rates to fall. But many would-be buyers are facing economic uncertainty and aren’t ready to make an offer. Plus: A FEMA rule forces residents of flood-prone areas to make a difficult decision, developing countries will drive global energy demand in the next few years and when colleges close, local communities suffer.

Retail sales were down in January, but the Census Bureau report — with its mish-mosh of data — can obscure nuances in consumer spending. In this episode, we talk to economists and other experts about how they cut through the noise. Plus: An American city and Canadian city with interlaced economies brace for tariffs, Americans love their meat sticks and the women behind a wine shop-restaurant-bookstore tell us about their business.

Homeowners have been clinging to low mortgage rates for the past few years, stifling the housing market. But new data from Zillow shows once-patient sellers are finally pulling the trigger, despite high rates. Why now? Also in this episode: Supply logistics costs rise, businesses brace for tariff fallout and produce prices fall for suppliers — but that doesn’t mean grocery bills are shrinking.

After a rough 2024, energy giant BP is expected to announce a “fundamental reset” of its business strategy this month. We don’t know for sure what that means, but industry experts expect the firm, formerly known as British Petroleum, to move away from renewables and double down on oil and natural gas. Also in this episode: A trade consultant tells us how her clients are reacting to President Trump’s trade policies, Zelle hit a record $1 trillion in payments last year and Americans are turning to “fin-fluencers” for financial advice.

When you’re shopping, ever feel like your options are low-quality budget items or stuff that’s stunningly unaffordable? The growing gap between the haves and have-nots in the U.S. is reflected in what’s available for us to buy. It’s a phenomenon called bifurcation — we’ll explain. Also in this episode: Wage growth jumped in January and parlay betting makes loads of cash for sports gambling firms. Plus, share with Marketplace: What kind of consumer are you?

 

 

More tariffs are on the way, this time targeting vehicle imports. President Donald Trump favors import taxes, partly because, he argues, they’ll help shrink the U.S. trade deficit. But if tariffs cut Americans’ spending on imports, foreigners are likely to cut their contribution to funding the U.S. budget deficit. Also on the show: BLS economists use not one but six different methods to measure unemployment, and organizational studies professor Elizabeth Popp Berman explains why university endowments can’t simply replace federal funding.

The latest reading marks the fourth straight month of declining consumer confidence, and it fell more than expected. How will the souring mood affect spending and the job market? Also in this episode: Political economist Mark Blyth discusses how President Trump might respond to a potential recession. Plus, why tariffs are making investors wary of the U.S. and a company claims to have a new way to make seawater drinkable.

The Donald Trump administration wants to strengthen U.S. manufacturing with tariffs on imported goods. We look at the latest purchasing managers report to see if new trade policies have made an impact. Also in this episode: Homeownership rates stall for Gen Z and millennials, shakeups at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Baltimore’s new Francis Scott Key Bridge design takes shape.

We’re tackling a “mysterious and important” question in today’s episode: Should Congress use “current policy” or “current law” baseline when measuring tax cuts? It’s not unlike our reporter’s internal struggle on whether to cancel Apple TV+ now that Season 2 of “Severance” has ended, or renew it. Except lawmakers are dealing with trillions of dollars. Plus: African immigrants fill critical home health aide roles in Texas, and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index falls for the third-straight month.

More tariffs are set to take effect April 2, and in most cases, American consumers and businesses will pay the tax. We’ll explain why some sectors expect prices to rise as soon as next month while others won’t feel a pinch until later in the year. Also in this episode: Tariffs could inflate the dollar’s strength while sapping demand for American exports, Gen Zers feel “trapped” by microtrends and Alaskan crude oil production is projected to jump in 2026.

Federal Reserve policymakers aren’t cutting interest rates right now, though they expect two rate cuts in 2025. When — and if — those cuts come will depend on how the trade war shakes out. In this episode, what static rates mean for consumers and businesses. Plus, more byproducts of tariff-driven economic uncertainty: bond spreads widen and export prices rise, particularly on agricultural products.

Corporate dealmakers hoped merger and acquisition ventures would heat up this year. But the first quarter of 2025 saw the slowest M&A activity in more than a decade, according to Dealogic. In this episode, why firms aren’t shelling out billions to buy another company in this economy. Plus: Nintendo announces a new Switch console, Gen Z suffers in a low-hire, low-fire job market, and a new study shows nonwhite bankruptcy filers face a lower likelihood of debt relief.

Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy has been top of mind since President Donald Trump’s election in November. We finally know how high those tariffs will be (between 10% and 54%) and to which countries they’ll apply (almost all of them). Now, a key question is: How much will prices rise? In this episode, business owners prep for the costs and some economists predict an economic downturn. Plus: The administration wants the IRS to share undocumented immigrants’ protected information with Homeland Security.

Tariff-driven inflation will hit Americans with the lowest incomes the hardest, slashing their disposable income by at least $1,700 a year, the Yale Budget Lab predicts. We’ll explain why. And the labor market could suffer too if demand falls for all those higher-priced products. Plus, New Mexico allocates oil and gas revenue to child care programs, and in booming West Texas, some residents struggle to access running water.

 

Import levies on Chinese goods amount to 54% right now. But some things that China excels at producing will likely remain in China. In this episode, why shoemaking can’t up and leave anytime soon. Plus: Copper prices ballooned and tanked in the past few weeks, European carmakers weigh their options in the trade war and recession fears, not inflation fears, are driving bond yields.