Market Trends with Tracy – Details, episodes & analysis

The CME has mellowed out for much more normal weekly numbers.
Beef harvest is way down, pushing pricing higher overall. Most cuts are up for the week, so buy what you need now. Waiting will cost you money.
Avian Flu is back, affecting 2.7 million egg-laying chickens, and will stick around with the colder weather. Chicken production continues strong, and pricing for the next week is down overall. Look for a few more weeks of declines.
Pork bellies are up this week. Buy what you need now, there will be buying opportunities to come. The rest of the pork complex looks great. Availability is good and pricing is stable.

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The decline in dairy prices continues this week, through Thursday, barrel is down 15, block is down 11 and butter is down 5, since the recent peak in late mid-September barrel has dropped 72 cents, block is down 34 and butter has dropped 38. That is a pretty major reset in just three weeks.  We may have another week or so before this market hits bottom but good value has returned to the dairy markets.  

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There is not much pushing the beef market to move higher at the moment. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding steady, while strip loins continue to lose value. Ribeyes and tenderloins have found some support. Buy what you need knowing this market is not heading higher for now.
Chicken wings are down again this week and breasts are moving higher. It's a good time to feature chicken. Only one new report of Avian Flu this week out of Florida.
Grains continue to be a positive for the food industry. 
Pork bellies are down this week, after a very short-lived rally. Expect production to ramp up in September, but for now, things are pretty reasonable. Menu pork!

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Happy Episode 100!

This year’s avian flu continues to spread.  Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds,  most of them  turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus.  We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall.   I’ve nothing encouraging to say about turkey other than if you have, value it, and if you can buy it, do.  Looking at chicken and it is the same message the last couple weeks.  Wings are steady, and still a good value, boneless breasts and tenders continue to move lower.  Production continues to creep higher every week and with weekly hatch rates now consistently over 80% more product continues into the market.  Expect chicken to continue to be a good value moving into fall. 

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This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up.  With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again.  This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Episode Sources
https://www.science.org/content/article/we-re-nervous-deadly-bird-flu-may-be-north-america-stay

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

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A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%.  That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%.  These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle.
 
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.

Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations

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Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend.  BUT – it is a trend.  This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys.  Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year.  Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year.  Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher.  So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply.  Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing.   
Episode Sources:
https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/113248-bacon-report-2022-all-sizzle-no-fizzle?oly_enc_id=9442E4975623E5T

https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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Grains  Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35.  Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping.  There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand.  Something I will be watching.  Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming.  The soy harvest could be similarly affected  by weather as corn.  Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind.  International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady. 

Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

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First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother! 

On Tuesday bellies dropped $48 and with yesterday’s close at $144 has dropped $56 since last week’s close of $200.  Elevated cold storage numbers, hows that for a turn around from last year…  plus expected increasing production as the weather cools and packers are dealing with the classic issue, sell or smell it.  This is definitely a buying time.  I don’t know how long we will see this market but I’m betting we’ve got a few weeks to secure good value product.  The rest of the pork complex is following the lead of bellies but not to the same dramatic drops.  Pork will be a good value for the next few weeks, at least. 

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Episode Sources:

https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/hog-production/pork-bellies-plummet-drag-cutout-lower?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGGc6JmbpYmadAuAkEf3rK-9Vq1C43IjB0b0ldyqyDt1ER-o9RzCmVhdWz6J8POq7hzWzzXhd9e9i8krghUHbURqs-LBNDT7eFx9vCcpT-0HJvYrHc

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Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected.  I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away.  The damage is done, the recovery in process.  If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.

Episode Sources:
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

https://www.barchart.com/

Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn