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Dive into the complete episode list for Manifold. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #6729 Aug 202400:35:30

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.

Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica

00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland

02:04 deCODE genetics 

05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik

11:56 Hyperscaling genAI

23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling

24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?

29:45 Quantum black holes


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.


Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #6615 Aug 202401:20:47

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

0:00 Introduction

00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences

08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics

22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges

28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society

40:49 Fertility and Demography

48:37 Life as a Polymath

59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question

01:09:29 Audience Q&A

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.


Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #5704 Apr 202401:02:02

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!

Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.

March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."

Links:


Steve and Casey discuss:


0:00 Introduction

00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech

07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship

10:40 Terraform Industries

15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact

24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane

31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights

35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform

41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation

44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships

45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality

55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.


Mark Moffett on the Life and Death of Human Societies – #1722 Aug 201900:57:08

Steve and Corey talk with Mark Moffett, Photographer and Research Fellow at the Smithsonian Institute, about his new book The Human Swarm: How our Societies Arise, Thrive and Fall. They discuss Mark’s view that being able walk into a cafe filled with others and not be attacked illustrates what makes human societies distinct and so successful. Mark explains why he is far more interested in questions about when war and other events occur than with traditional issues such as the genetic origins of human behavior. The three discuss Dehumanization and its Chimp equivalent, Dechimpanizeeization, and how they lead to the division of societies, friend turning against friend, and genocide. They discuss the conditions under which foreigners are embraced and whether the US might ever enter into a post-racial society where group differences don’t matter and immigrants are more easily accepted.


Resources

John Schulman: OpenAI and recent advances in Artificial Intelligence – #1608 Aug 201901:07:49

John Schulman is a research scientist at OpenAI. He co-leads the Reinforcement Learning group and works on agent learning in virtual game worlds (e.g., Dota) as well as in robotics. John, Corey, and Steve talk about AI, AGI (Artifical General Intelligence), the Singularity (self-reinforcing advances in AI which lead to runaway behavior that is incomprehensible to humans), and the creation and goals of OpenAI. They discuss recent advances in language models (GPT-2) and whether these results raise doubts about the usefulness of linguistic research over the past 60 years. Does GPT-2 imply that neural networks trained using large amounts of human-generated text can encode “common sense” knowledge about the world? They also discuss what humans are better at than current AI systems, and near term examples of what is already feasible: for example, using AI drones to kill people.


Resources

Daniel Max on Writing a Literary non-Fiction Classic and Prion Diseases Then and Now – #1525 Jul 201901:16:23

Daniel Max, staff writer at The New Yorker and author of Every Love Story is A Ghost Story, a biography of David Foster Wallace, speaks with Corey and Steve about his first book, The Family that Couldn’t Sleep. The discussion covers the emerging genre of literary non-fiction, Daniel’s process of writing The Family that Couldn’t Sleep, and how he approached and gained the trust of the family at the heart of the story. Corey probes Daniel about how he handled the complex scientific characters, Carl Gajdusek and Stanley Prusiner, who led research into prion disease for 40 years. Daniel recounts how Shirley Glasse (now Lindenbaum) discovered how prions were transmitted through ritual cannibalism in Papua New, a critical step in solving the mystery of what causes of the disease, but how credit was given to Gajdusek. The three discuss the painfully slow pace of research and the inspiring story of a young couple, Eric Minikel and Sonia Vallabh, who have changed careers to dedicate their lives to finding a cure.


Resources

Stuart Firestein on Why Ignorance and Failure Lead to Scientific Progress – Episode #1411 Jul 201901:00:34

Steve and Corey speak with Stuart Firestein (Professor of Neuroscience at Columbia University, specializing in the olfactory system) about his two books Ignorance: How It Drives Science and Failure: Why Science Is So Successful. Stuart explains why he thinks that it is a mistake to believe that scientists make discoveries by following the “scientific method” and what he sees as the real relationship between science and art. We discuss Stuart’s recent research showing that current models of olfactory processing are wrong, while Steve delves into the puzzling infinities in calculations that led to the development of quantum electrodynamics. Stuart also makes the case that the theory of intelligent design is more intelligent than most scientists give it credit for and that it would be wise to teach it in science classes.


Resources

Joe Cesario on Political Bias and Problematic Research Methods in Social Psychology – #1327 Jun 201900:58:36

Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward the left politically and that this affects how courses are taught and research conducted. Steve points out the university faculty on the whole tend to be shifted left relative to the general population. Joe, Corey, and Steve discuss the current ideological situation on campus and how it can be alienating for students from conservative backgrounds.


Resources

James Cham on Venture Capital, Risk Taking, and the Future Impacts of AI – Episode #1213 Jun 201901:16:05

James Cham is a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a venture capital firm focused on the future of work. James invests in companies applying machine intelligence to businesses and society. Prior to Bloomberg Beta, James was a Principal at Trinity Ventures and a VP at Bessemer Venture Partners. He was educated in computer science at Harvard and at the MIT Sloan School of Business.


Resources

Joe Cesario on Police Decision Making and Racial Bias in Deadly Force Decisions – Episode #1130 May 201901:18:38

Corey and Steve talk with Joe Cesario about his recent work showing that, contrary to many activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings. Joe discusses his analysis of national criminal justice data and his experimental studies with police officers in a specially designed realistic simulator. He maintains that evidence suggests that racial bias does exist in other uses force of force such as tasering but that the decision to shoot is fundamentally different and driven by facts about criminal context in which officers find themselves rather than race.


Resources

Ron Unz on the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, The Unz Review, and the Harvard Admissions Scandal – Episode #1016 May 201901:05:15

Ron Unz is the publisher of the Unz Review, a controversial, but widely read, alternative media site hosting opinion outside of the mainstream, including from both the far right and the far left. Unz studied theoretical physics at Harvard, Cambridge and Stanford. He founded the software company Wall Street Analytics, acquired by Moody’s in 2006, and was behind the 1998 ballot initiative that ended bilingual education in California.


Resources

Philosopher Sam Kerstein on the Morality of Genome Engineering, Inequality, and Star Trek – Episode #902 May 201901:10:53

Corey and Steve speak with Samuel Kerstein, Professor of Philosophy and expert in Medical Ethics at the University of Maryland. They discuss the ethics of genome engineering and preimplantation embryo selection, and the inequality and narrowing of human diversity that might result from widespread adoption of these technologies. Among the topics covered: Why genome engineering at this time is immoral. Should we always pick the healthiest embryo? In the future will parents have a moral obligation to engineer their children? Will there be an arms race between countries to engineer their populations? Is Star Trek’s Khan a more advanced person (Steve) or just another smart psychopath (Sam) or both?


Resources

Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #818 Apr 201901:04:17

Hossenfelder is a Research Associate at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies. Her research areas include particle physics and quantum gravity. She discusses the current state of theoretical physics, and her recent book Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray.


Resources

Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #5621 Mar 202401:13:35

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/

Steve and Russell discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan

13:25 Hong Kong and finance

31:53 China property bubble

48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency

56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective

1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.


David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species – Episode #704 Apr 201901:14:52

David Skrbina is a philosopher at the University of Michigan. He and Ted Kaczynski published the book Technological Slavery, which elaborates on the Unabomber manifesto and contains about 100 pages of correspondence between the two which took place over almost a decade. Skrbina discusses his and Kaczynski’s views on deep problems of technological society, and whether violent opposition to it is justified.


Resources

John Hawks on Human Evolution, Ancient DNA, and Big Labs Devouring Fossils – Episode #621 Mar 201900:54:08

Hawks is the Vilas-Borghesi Distinguished Achievement Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is an anthropologist and studies the bones and genes of ancient humans. He’s worked on almost every part of our evolutionary story, from the very origin of our lineage among the apes, to the last 10,000 years of our history.


Resources

Kaiser Kuo of Sinica on Modern China and US-China relations – Episode #507 Mar 201901:17:05

Kaiser Kuo is a host and co-founder of Sinica, a current affairs podcast originally based in Beijing. Sinica guests include prominent journalists, academics, and policy makers who participate in uncensored discussions about Chinese political, economic, and cultural affairs.


Resources

Ted Schultz on Ants, Emergent Behavior, and the Molecular Revolution in Systematics – Episode #421 Feb 201900:45:09

Corey and Steve speak with Ted Shultz, research Entomologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. Ted is an expert in Leaf Cutter Ant evolution and systematics. Topics discussed include evolution, systematics, the genetic basis of behavior,  E. O. Wilson and small revolutions in science.

Resources

Noor Siddiqui, Thiel Fellow, on Stanford and Silicon Valley – Episode #307 Feb 201901:08:45

Corey and Steve interview Noor Siddiqui, a student at Stanford studying AI, Machine Learning, and Genomics. She was previously a Thiel Fellow, and founded a medical collaboration technology startup after high school. The conversation covers topics like college admissions, Tiger parenting, Millennials, Stanford, Silicon Valley startup culture, innovation in the US healthcare industry, and Simplicity and Genius.


Resources

Bobby Kasthuri & Brain Mapping - Episode #231 Jan 201901:15:13

Corey and Steve are joined by Bobby Kausthuri, a Neuroscientist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago. Bobby specializes in nanoscale mapping of brains using automated fine slicing followed by electron microscopy. Among the topics covered: Brain mapping, the nature of scientific progress (philosophy of science), Biology vs Physics, Is the brain too complex to be understood by our brains? AlphaGo, the Turing Test, and wiring diagrams, Are scientists underpaid? The future of Neuroscience.

▶️ WATCH: Bobby Kausthuri & Brain Mapping — Episode #2


Resources

CRISPR Babies — Episode #124 Jan 201900:22:34

Corey and Steve discuss news of gene edited babies in China, and the future of human genetic engineering.

▶️ Watch: CRISPR Babies — Episode #1


Resources

Introductions — Episode #024 Jan 201900:48:10

Corey and Steve, friends for almost 30 years, introduce each other to the audience.

Caltech Traditions and Pranks
http://www.admissions.caltech.edu/exp...

Steve’s blog, Information Processing
http://infoproc.blogspot.com

man·i·fold  /ˈmanəˌfōld/   many and various.

In mathematics, a manifold is a topological space that locally
resembles Euclidean space near each point.

Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #5507 Mar 202400:50:19

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. 

Steve and Stephen discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background

5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets

11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement

20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration

23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement

27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions

30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets

31:47 Dating markets

32:53 The Art of PR

38:32 Global reach and community engagement

39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions

43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. 

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #5422 Feb 202401:07:36

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.

He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.

Steve and Ray discuss:

0:00 Introduction

01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination

26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop

30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state

55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.

01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?

Books referenced in this episode:

JFK and the Unspeakable

https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886

Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy

https://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. 

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #5308 Feb 202400:53:07

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?

Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing

Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html

CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52 25 Jan 202401:10:55

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.

More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes

NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4

00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history

14:21 Sean's personal journey and career

21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG

24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom

28:45 The reality of human trafficking

31:40 Technology and law enforcement

44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media

01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #5111 Jan 202401:24:14

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.

Previous episodes with TP include:


Steve and TP discuss: 


  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD
  • (08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology
  • (13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception
  • (29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle?
  • (33:36) - Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict
  • (36:15) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan
  • (42:44) - Amphibious landing, boots on the ground
  • (45:20) - Red lines and Taiwan independence
  • (48:38) - PRC nuclear weapons buildup
  • (51:17) - PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster
  • (59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China
  • (01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.


Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #5014 Dec 202301:27:12

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.

https://research.gavekal.com/

Steve and Louis discuss:

  • (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer
  • (14:42) - Founding Gavekal
  • (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth
  • (32:57) - China real estate market
  • (42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth
  • (48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies
  • (01:07:09) - China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt
  • (01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve

Charles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — #4930 Nov 202301:02:57

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.

Lynk - https://lynk.world/

Steve and Charles discuss:

0:00 Introduction and guest background

1:27 Miller's early passion for space

3:54 Evolution of commercial space

6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX

8:01 The challenges of early stage startups

11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs

33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity

35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites

36:41 Competition with Starlink

39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk

47:04 Satellite technology and global competition

50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features

59:01 Advice for entrepreneurs


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #4816 Nov 202301:23:03

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

0:00 Introduction

2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles

6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market

9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market

14:41 Buying a car in China

27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries

30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China

40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving

50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving

59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid

1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.


China Today: Myths and Realities — #6501 Aug 202401:21:47

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.

00:00 Introduction

02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble

08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War

16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US

20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce

39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy

41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges

45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content

53:00 Freedom of expression

1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles

1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #4702 Nov 202301:30:02

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.

Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.

Steve and Taylor discuss: 

0:00 Introduction
1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China
20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism
33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR
56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits
1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in China


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — #4619 Oct 202301:43:17

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.

Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/

Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:
https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/

An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciences

Steve and Bharat discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:58 Karnad's educational background, nuclear research, journalism career

26:50 Refocusing India's defense posture from Pakistan to China

45:21 Why don't India and China have better relations?

53:33 India's nuclear arsenal

1:04:31 The mysterious death of Homi Bhabha, India's Oppenheimer

1:28:50 Land of subjugation, the caste system, and English as the language of Indian elites

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.


Yasheng Huang: China's Examination System and its impact on Politics, Economy, Innovation — #4505 Oct 202301:31:58

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.

Steve and Yasheng discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s
15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"
37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination
48:33 Impact of the exam system
57:04 China's innovation peak and decline
1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West
1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve?

Yasheng Huang at MIT
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huang

Web site:
http://www.yashenghuang.com/


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.


Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #4421 Sep 202301:17:40

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

Steve and TP discuss:

0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology

5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC

23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics

28:21 Impact on Qualcomm

36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China

semiconductor companies

42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.

47:14 5G and Huawei

52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones

56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers

1:01:33 Chip War and AI model training


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.


Meritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #4307 Sep 202301:01:59

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.

Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing

CLA and College Learning outcomes:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.html

Harvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduate

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.html

Defining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html

Chapter markers:

0:00 Introduction 

1:28 University of California system report and the use of SAT scores admissions

8:04 Longitudinal study on gifted students and SAT scores (SMPY)

12:53 Unprecedented data on earnings outcomes and SAT scores

15:43 How SAT scores and university pedigree influence opportunities at elite firms

17:35 Non-academic factors fail to predict student success

20:49 Predicted earnings

24:24 Measured benefit of Ivy Plus attendance

28:25 CLA: 13 university study on college learning outcomes

32:34 Does college education improve generalist skills and critical thinking?

42:15 The composition of elite universities: 4 paths to admission

48:12 What happened to meritocracy?

51:48 Hard versus Soft career tracks

54:43 Cognitive elite at Ivies vs state flagship universities

57:11 What happened to Caltech?


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Aella: Sex Work, Sex Research, and Data Science — #4224 Aug 202301:39:05

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.

Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl

Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello

An earlier Aella interview with Reason:

https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/

Steve and Aella discuss:

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing
  • (12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting
  • (29:52) - Pimp culture
  • (38:01) - Seeking Arrangement
  • (43:50) - Cheating
  • (46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps
  • (51:49) - Incels and sex work
  • (56:24) - Porn and Gen-Z
  • (01:12:43) - Embryo screening
  • (01:21:43) - How far off is IVG?


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.


AI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — #4110 Aug 202301:07:03

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.

Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.

Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.

0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background

18:02 Tim's interest in the efficiency and accessibility of large language models

38:05 Inference, speed, and the potential for using consumer GPUs for running large language models

45:55 Model training and the benefits of quantization with QLoRA

57:14 The future of AI and large language models in the next 3-5 years and beyond

Tim's site: https://timdettmers.com/

Tim on GitHub: https://github.com/TimDettmers

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Paul Huang, the real situation in Taiwan: politics, military, China — #4027 Jul 202301:16:54

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.

Sample articles:

Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/

Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/

Steve and Paul discuss: 

 

0:00 Introduction 

1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan

4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese

15:02 Taiwan taboos: politics and military preparedness

15:27 Effect of Ukraine conflict on Taiwanese opinion

29:56 Lack of realistic military planning

37:20 Is there a political solution to reunification with China? What influence does the U.S. have?

51:34 The likelihood of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China

56:45 Honest views on Taiwanese and U.S. military readiness for a

conflict with China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Hanania & Rob Henderson: The Rise of Wokeness and the Influence of Civil Rights Law — #3913 Jul 202301:34:27

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!

They discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses
17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?
29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action
35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action
41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed
44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling
50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions
1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males
1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West  
1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests
1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move 


LINKS

Richard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802

Richard Hanania’s newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/

The Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: https://www.cspicenter.com/

Rob Henderson’s newsletter: https://www.robkhenderson.com/

Rob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537

UATX: https://www.uaustin.org/forbidden-courses

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander (UCLA Law) on the Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling — #3801 Jul 202300:47:39

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.

Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.

Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.

0:00 Introduction

1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling

4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision

7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling

11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling

16:59 The litigation landscape

21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system

32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?

38:02 The landscape of college admissions

44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher education


LINKS

SCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdf

Richard Sander’s amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1199/222805/20220509134743957_20-1199%2021-707%20Amicus%20BOM.pdf

Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-unc

Richard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #6418 Jul 202401:11:52

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18

Chapter markers:


  • (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome
  • (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception
  • (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom
  • (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism
  • (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide
  • (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

AI Cambrian Explosion: Conversation With Three AI Engineers — #3708 Jun 202301:04:55

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.

0:00 Introduction

1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 

14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?

30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?

34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside

41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment

Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.

Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35

Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30

ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-ai


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

David Goldman: US-China Competition, AI, Electric Vehicles, and Manufacturing — #3625 May 202301:16:17

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.

Steve and David discuss:

0:00 Introduction

2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia

16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis

23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy

29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power

36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market

38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China

45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind

52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition

1:04:07 Predictions for Taiwan

Links:

David Goldman in Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldman

Spengler column:

https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/

You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the World

https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetime

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemma/

David Goldman articles in Claremont Review:

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldman/


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #3511 May 202301:24:36

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models.

Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing

Chapter markers:

0:00 Introduction

2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results

21:15 Embedding space, word vectors

31:53 Next word prediction as objective function

34:08 Attention is all you need

37:09 Transformer architecture

44:54 The geometry of thought

52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI

1:02:41 Hallucination  

1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples

1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the future


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Simone Collins: IVF, Embryo Selection, Dating on the Spectrum, and Pronatalism — #3427 Apr 202301:30:13

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com).

Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone.

Steve and Simone discuss:

0:00 Introduction

1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening

40:02 Dating; girl autists

55:41 Finding a husband, systematized

1:09:57 Pronatalism 

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Katherine Dee: Culture, Identity, and Isolation in the Digital Age — #3313 Apr 202301:56:25

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.

Steve and Katherine discuss:

0:00 Introduction

1:15 Katherine’s early life and background

21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels

59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights

1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter

1:33:00 TikTok

1:41:41 Adderall

1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos

1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?

References:

Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/


“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: https://contra.substack.com/p/mass-shootings-and-the-world-liberalism

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Marc Martinez: "Dream Big" and the Golden Age of Bodybuilding — #3216 Mar 202301:16:28

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.

Steve and Marc discuss:

  • (01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding
  • (05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California
  • (26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use
  • (33:52) - Frank Zane
  • (38:33) - Robby Robinson
  • (40:32) - Butler, Gaines, and Arnold
  • (42:46) - "Dream Big"
  • (48:18) - Pumping Iron
  • (59:44) - Hypersexuality in bodybuilding
  • (01:10:56) - What's next for Marc

References:

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


--


Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Gilles Saint-Paul: The Yellow Vests, French Politics, and Hypergamy — #3102 Mar 202301:10:14

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.

0:00 Introduction

1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education

6:31 French and American higher elite education

14:44 The Yellow Vests

41:46 Mating and Hypergamy

References:

On the Yellow Vest Insurrection

https://gillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrection/

Genes, Legitimacy and Hypergamy: Another Look at the Economics of Marriage

https://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/9118.html


Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #3016 Feb 202300:49:37

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.

00:00 Introduction

02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination

20:52 China demographics & STEM

34:29 China IVF

40:28 Survey on embryo screening in Science

References:

Bing vs Bard and Hallucination 

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119

China demographics and STEM

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385

China IVF

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224
https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623478413758500864

Survey on embryo screening

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.


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