Inside Prediction Markets, a podcast by Prediction Market Gurus - Stats, Episodes and Rankings

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Inside a Fully Manual Prediction Market Strategy: Where Human Judgment Finds an Edge

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 • Duration 39:41

This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his hands-on approach to market making, how he managed first-touchdown orders between plays and why late-game situations remain some of his strongest opportunities. Plus: a $60,000 losing week, building trading tools with AI and why Clay continues to rely on experience rather than a formal pricing model.

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Trading Elections: Separating Narratives From Numbers

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 • Duration 01:04:36

This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Silver and go through past elections we’ve traded and how to properly navigate political numbers.

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Finding Success in NBA Trading: From Top-Down to Modeling

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 • Duration 38:09

This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his own NBA model, why execution matters as much as pricing and how he’s automated 90–95% of his trading system. We also go through his NBA takes from this season and his thoughts on the NFL so far.

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Novig Climbs to #1 in Sports: What’s Behind the Downloads?

Wednesday, October 7, 2026 • Duration 37:18

This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone choose a sportsbook over a prediction market, how app design shapes that choice and why a simpler experience might matter more than better odds.

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NFL Hype vs. Reality: Which Quarterbacks Are Worth Backing?

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 • Duration 35:01

This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.

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Turning $100 to $1M on Prediction Markets: How to Build a Winning Operation

Wednesday, September 23, 2026 • Duration 39:34

Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule, week-long withdrawals vs. next-day payouts on PMs and why offshore books are in a "slow death." Plus how he turned a rough first month on PMs into one of the best runs of his career, and the $35K NASCAR mistake along the way.

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CFB vs. NFL Kickoff Weekend: Where the Real Volume Showed Up

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 • Duration 33:05

Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.

Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State.

On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

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Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams

Wednesday, September 9, 2026 • Duration 54:44

This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Rams-49ers, plus his take on Aaron Donald.

To close it out, Rob answers reader questions, including his pick for a 5-year quarterback rebuild, his take on the Lane Kiffin bonus-hedge story and the 2 teams he'd price differently in the NFL power rankings.

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Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney

Wednesday, September 2, 2026 • Duration 44:44

This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big to unwind.Then, gaming and prediction markets attorney, Alex Dubin, joins the show to break down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi, why it conflicts with the Third Circuit’s decision, and how the growing divide between federal and state regulators could ultimately land in front of the Supreme Court.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 LSU hedges Lane Kiffin on Kalshi01:57 Polymarket’s $21B valuation2:50 Trump Jr.: "Back Off"04:08 Alex Dubin joins the show07:33 Ninth circuit ruling15:06 Why federal markets are split on PMs 17:03 Could PMs reach the Supreme Court?27:11 Are PMs gambling? 33:26 Are PMs too big to fail?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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The Race to Dominate NFL Prediction Markets

Wednesday, August 26, 2026 • Duration 29:32

This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are returning to college football.

Then, we get into the NFL markets that are already exceeding expectations before the regular season begins. We unpack the surge in preseason trading volume and predict just how massive trading will become Week 1. We debate which exchanges will grow the most from football season and preview trading activity around the U.S. Open. We wrap up with a quick debrief of BetBash 2026.

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Inside Prediction Markets – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

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Shared links between episodes and podcasts

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Apple Podcasts

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Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Inside Prediction Markets – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

Recent rankings

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Shared links between episodes and podcasts

Google Docs2

YouTube11

The Wall Street Journal1

RSS feed quality and score

Publication history

Latest published episodes

Similar podcasts and content

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Google Docs2

YouTube11

The Wall Street Journal1