Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twilight of Russia's technocrats. Besides, he is already politically dead, so it’s in a way not too early to deliver his obituary and use that to consider some of the dilemmas and characteristics of senior figures who are technocrats, not Putin cronies.

The Pushkin House even I mentioned is here.

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After another armed hostage taking by inmates (and bloody response), I consider what’s going on in Russia’s prisons, and what it may tell us about what’s happening in Russia as a whole. And in the last segment, I consider attitudes to Prigozhin, a year after his death.

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Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead?

In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Ebury/Penguin, 2024). Out now in the UK and Europe, out in September in the US.

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A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine:
- the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas
- where's Shoigu?
- fear and loathing in the National Guard
- a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really)

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Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean.

In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider question of how we try and make sense of it all in the midst of active information warfare being waged on every side.

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What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process.

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It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does not sell Kyiv down the river - might involve.

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With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will stay in Syria through 2022 (yes) and whether Bortnikov will retire (also yes).

I talk about putative FSB director-elect Korolev in a piece for Raam op Rusland here, and talked about the debate over recognising the Donbas pseudo-states in this IMS episode.

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I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route.  In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses.

The article on Minsk II for the Council on Geostrategy is here.

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.

A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption.

There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine.

The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping with diamonds, but no one sees fit to enquire further.

Eventually, when it turns out that the bank has been plundered into near-bankruptcy, there’s an enquiry, but the chief director of the bank – who incidentally is a close crony of the ruler – is put in charge of the investigating commission.

And this is despite the eye-witness account of his removing bullion from the bank’s vaults as the scandal breaks.

Lo and behold, all the blame is placed on the teller and sundry other small fry, while the directors go scot free.

Sounds like just another tale of modern Russia?

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.

Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an ice hockey player can be one of the best routes to success in Putin's Russia.

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After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.'

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year!

I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews (https://www.intellinews.com/) and one of the more grounded commentators on ‘Planet Business.’

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Ukraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any future talks, whenever they happen, and a survey arranged by the Carnegie Endowment gives some interesting insights as to how that may go.

In the second half, I address the periodic claims that Russia needs to re-establish SMERSH, Stalin's infamous 'Death to Spies' murder squad. Is this likely, or simply a toxic by-product of Putin's rehabilitation of the dictator?

The Carnegie survey's full results are here.

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A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the CSTO agree to send forces, what are Moscow's interests, and what can we learn from the Russian media messaging?

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To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.'

The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here, and the Riddle 'Key Event of 2021' compilation is here.

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A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk.

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Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense?

In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane.

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Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine.

Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here.)

Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if the autocrat remains in power” after 2024.

And finally, in response to a question from a Patron, observations about how Russians are getting by, and the increased visibility of pawn shops (lombards, in Russian).

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In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine.

The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here, and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here. I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here.

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While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each.

Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If anyone has any other such random questions they'd like me to answer, do send them my way.

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A trip to Tula, 200km south of Moscow, provides a chance to mix a little history and travelogue with some thoughts about what the city reveals about the nature of provincial life, regional politics and the state economy versus the market economy. In the second half, I look at Tula's governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and for some still a potential successor. How much do governors matter?

The travel blog I mention is Travels in Deepest Muscovy, which will later feature a photo-essay or two in Tula.

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Just back to Russia, my first trip since February 2020, and for this podcast I try something different - a random collection of impressions, mainly recorded on the street (so apologies for the often poor sound quality). Normal podcasting will resume shortly!

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Two quite big topics this episode. First of all, the restrictive new rules on 'Foreign Agent' status that, if applied, would make it almost impossible to discuss military, security and even space topics. They are as much about drawing sharper lines - are you with us or against us - as encouraging self-censorship.

Then, after the break, some rumination on 'hybrid war' - why it's not that helpful a term, and why, when we talk about Russia, there is no one notion of 'hybrid war' but three.

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Putin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confident than he has in a while.

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I confess at this stage I couldn't think of much to say about the Russian elections that wasn't obvious, or hadn't been said, so instead I recorded a 'magazine' episode covering a range of other topics:

• Team Navalny's latest video (here), this time on the corruption of Foreign Minister Lavrov, and why the opposition needs a new big idea
• The Zapad-2021 exercises and their political significance (coverage by Mike Kofman here and Konrad Muzyka here)
• Three stories that went under-reported in Russia: on AUKUS, on Putin's health (my Spectator piece is here) and Sputnik V
• Rumours that Sergei Shoigu is being sent to Siberia - in a good way.

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A shorter episode that looks at a vicious criminal's end in a prison riot in Kamchatka, and after talking a little about prison realities in Russia, considers some possible lessons for Russia as a whole.

I mention the vexed issue of police numbers, something I discuss here and here.

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Sometimes it's worth digging into what look like less important stories, to see what lessons the offer about the big picture developments, so I tackle three - who's likely to be the next ambassador to Cape Verde, why airfare hikes contribute to street violence, and why Naryshkin is now claiming to be a long-time mate of Putin's - and see what I can make of them.

For those figures I threw out, the proportions of staff of different Presidential Administration departments estimated to be current or former security officers are:
63% Security Council (SB) Secretariat
28% Foreign Policy Directorate (UVneshP)
19% Expert Directorate (UE)
71% Directorate for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (UMKSZS),
62% Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation (UPS)

For the share of one-to-one or one-to-few meetings with the President in 2019:
1% Kostyukov (GRU)
5% Zolotov (National Guard(
5% Kolokoltsev (MVD)
11% Naryshkin
17% Bortnikov (FSB)
23% Shoigu (MoD)
29% Patrushev
9% Other

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There may be a little schadenfreude as America abandons Afghanistan and the Taliban sweep into Kabul, but Moscow is worried, above all about the country's three traditions exports: terror, refugees and opium.

The fate of the Afghan regime - and the way the 1991 August Coup caught the West by surprise - are also reminders of the problems in trying to predict the future...especially when it comes to Russia.

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Having long relied on it as a stalwart of the ‘systemic opposition’, the Kremlin now seems to be treating the Communist Party (KPRF) as if it were a real opposition party. Might this push it into real opposition? I build off a recent piece I wrote in the Moscow Times. The previous podcast I mentioned is here.

And in the second half, I indulge myself musing about occultism in Russian politics, from the search for Shambhala to 'red battle magician.' But is occultism perhaps really the best lens to understand it, after all?

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Is PM Mikhail Mishustin thinking long-term? His vision for Russia seems to be technocratic, maybe even techno-authoritarian, but it is interesting - and maybe implicitly subversive.

In the second half, I look at Russian-Ukrainian relations over the Donbas, public lunacy and private pragmatism. There's all kinds of silliness - including a case Moscow is taking to the European Court of Human Rights - but maybe the very tone actually reflects the resigned pragmatism new Donbas 'curator' Dmitry Kozak is bringing to freezing the conflict.

The Fabian Burkhardt article I mention is here, and my previous podcast on Putin's Ukrainian article is here.

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Another short, single-segment episode, this time looking at 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,' Putin's latest venture into the role of amateur historian (available in English here). Equal parts history, polemic and paranoia, it says more about VVP's state of mind than anything else, in my opinion.

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A brief, single-segment podcast on the distinctive roles of sport for today's Kremlin. Not a topic that I'd usually expect to discuss...

The journal article I mentioned on RT is ‘Russia isn’t a country of Putins!’: How RT bridged the credibility gap in Russian public diplomacy during the 2018 FIFA World Cup' by Rhys Crilley et al, here.

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The main reasons for the annual ritual of Putin's Direct Line phone-in encounter with the Russian people is to allow him to present himself as the caring father of the nation, savvy chief executive and watchful tsar. However, there is also a less-understood dimension: how the Kremlin uses it to gauge the mood of the masses. If it leads to genuine concerns being addressed, even in the name of keeping an authoritarian kleptocracy in power, is that a bad thing?

In the second part, I briefly draw some comparisons - differences but also similarities - between the Soviet and US/Coalition wars in Afghanistan.

The Raam op Rusland article I mentioned is here. The podcast which talks about polling by the FSO is here.

For more on my research on Afghanistan, the book of the PhD is Afghanistan - the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge)

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The Geneva Summit: frankly, as good as one could expect, with Biden offering a shrewd carrot and stick - Russia can feel itself more like a great power, if it plays more by the rules. No step-change breakthrough, but a decent start.

Worse news about the spread of COVID-19 in Russia, and again Putin and the government has gone AWOL, forcing Moscow mayor Sobyanin to take the lead. Why does this happen?

The Baunov article I mentioned is here; you can also read something I wrote about the importance of emotions in handling Putin (I should take full credit for everything that went well in Geneva...) here and an encouraged after-action report by Anna Arutunyan here.

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An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM?

The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here.

The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here.

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A bit of a grab-bag: what to make of the continuing crackdown in Russia, is there scope to undermine the cohesion of the security forces in Belarus, should HMS Defender be heading into the Black Sea, and, in the second half, thoughts about the upcoming Geneva Summit between Biden and Putin.

The article by Josh Huminski I mention is here.

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A spur-of-the-moment, off-the-top-of-my-head take on what's going (wr)on(g) in Belarus: the Russian connection or rather the absence of any evidence of one, Lukashenko's motivations, and above all what can be done. We need a strategy, a sense of what we want, and above all to realise that we cannot force change on Belarus but should rather help the Belarusian people generate it.

The article by Leonid Ragozin I mention is here.  For a general take of mine from August of last year that I think still broadly holds up. see here.  On Vakulchik and general Belarusian security politics, I note a short cellcast of mine here. 

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Is the Russian Orthodox Church a spiritual community, a political institution, or a business empire? The truth of the matter is that it has become all three, and I toy with the idea that we should think of it as FGUP RosBog, Federal State Unitary Enterprise 'Russian God'...

In the second half, I note that most of Russia's security chiefs are in their late 60s. Are they going to be allowed to leave when they hit the compulsory retirement age of 70, or will Putin seek to hold onto them? Either has distinct political implications.

The other podcast episodes I mention are: on Naryshkin here, on Putin's reluctance to let people go here, and on Sergei Korolev here (see also this article)

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Today (9 May) is Victory Day, and the sad truth is that this also inevitably means claims and counter claims of 'memory wars' over the Great Patriotic War. So what can and should we do about this?

And in the second part, a little historical vignette: how was the Kremlin fortress protected during WW2? The answer is by hiding it in plain sight.

The Henry Jackson Society event convened by Dr Jade McGlynn that I mention is here, and the previous Victory Day podcast is here. If you want to read Putin's speech, it's here.

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A mysterious glitch silenced the first, Navalny-related part of this podcast. This has now been fixed, and the full, uncensored version is now up - should now be up.
 
From why the Kremlin fears Navalny to what Patrushev believes and whether Hungary is a Russian proxy, I reply to a selection of patron's questions.

The articles I mentioned are my take on 'post-post-modern authoritarianism' in the Moscow Times here and Patrushev's interview in Argumenty i Fakty here.

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A personal and unpolished snap response to the news that the Czech government is expelling 18 Russian diplomat-spies after an investigation linked the GRU's Unit 29155 - and the infamous 'Petrov and Boshirov' of Salisbury novichok fame - with the explosion at an arms depot in 2014 that killed two. And I touch on how this may help Prague adopt more of a leadership role in Central Europe, another of my hobbyhorses...

There are previous articles of mine on the 2020 'ricin case' here and President Zeman's Russophilia here.

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Why is there this talk of Russia as a 'declining power' - and is it true? I'd suggest we ought to use the term with caution, not least as we are all declining...

The Saradzhan and Abdullaev piece I mentioned is here.

In the second part, I take a silly survey that claimed to find that Putin is Russia's most handsome man and combine it with criminal slang and plastic pop music to speculate about power versus legitimacy...

Oh, and if you want more of that song (gods have mercy on your soul), the full video is here.

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Rumours that Zhirinovsky is going to step down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party look more credible these days, and oligarch Oleg Deripaska is even being mooted as a successor. So, it's time for a bit of an exploration of the LDPR, what it stands for, what role it plays, and where it might go.

After the break, I take a quick look at a story in Znak on police procurement (here) and the Amazing Activities of the Singular Bastrykin. I talk about Korolev in this cellcast and in this article.

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Who are the main 'siloviki' or 'men of force,' the heads of Russia's security structures? In response to a request from a patron, I give a run-through of the people and their prospects.

Relevant other IMS episodes I mention are on Shoigu (here), Naryshkin (here) and Patrushev (here).

And then after the break, I take a quick look at Biden's "killer" comment, how it was received, and what it might - or might not - mean.

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All the Ms. First of all, as a counter to the understandable pessimism about Russia at the moment, I look at some of the aspects of Moscow that still make me marvel, and consider how they offer signs of long-term (which really means post-Putin) hope for Russia as a whole.

And then after the break, we have mob murder, as the newly-opened case of the 2009 murder of old-school gangster Vyacheslav 'Yaponchik' Ivankov says something not just about the decline of the traditional criminal 'vory v zakone' but also how the Kremlin tries to manage the underworld balance of power. (I talk about this wider issue much more in my book The Vory)

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What is behind the current spate of corruption-related arrests within the Russian military? Fears of a coup, an FSB takeover, punishing the generals for a badly-fought war? I'd say it is what it seems, an attempt to tackle waste in a time of war. That doesn't mean this kleptocracy is changing its spots, though: even within corrupt systems, anti-corruption campaigns can be mobilised for a range of purposes.

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A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him.

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With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next?

The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind.

In the second part, I build off a piece In wrote in the Spectator and address the question of whether 'Iron Felix' Dzerzhinsky will be returning to Lubyanka Square - or at least his statue - or if Alexander Nevsky will doom him to perpetual exile.

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It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine democracy to Russia - we'll have to see - he may nonetheless improve ordinary Russians' lot.

In the second half, quite why did the Kremlin deliver such a kicking to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell?

The articles I mention are this from The Bell (in Russian), and this from BNE Intellinews.

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