Hollywood Breaks – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode we're talking about the magical thinking of Christopher Nolan, the gut feeling of Comcast's CEO and the successor challenges of Disney. Enjoy!

🎬 Hollywood Breaks is an insiders’ view of what’s shaping the content-making world. Development partners Tim Thompson and Keith Rauch host this weekly show discussing current events with an eye towards seizing opportunity in the changing landscape. Follow us: 👉IG: https://www.instagram.com/hollywoodbreaks/ 👉FB: https://www.facebook.com/hollywoodbreaks 👉TW: https://twitter.com/hollywoodbreaks 👉Tim Thompson LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/timtla/ 👉Keith Rauch LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/keith-rauch-24230811/ 👉VisionCraft Brew https://www.visioncraftbrew.com 👉The Founder's Brew Newsletter https://foundersbrew.substack.com/?r=23esq&utm_campaign=pub&utm_medium=web 👉RevThink: https://revthink.com/

This week we’re joined by movie research expert Kevin Goetz! He has been at the center of Hollywood for several decades and is sharing precious insights with us today! Tune in! 

🎬 Hollywood Breaks is an insiders’ view of what’s shaping the content-making world. Development partners Tim Thompson and Keith Rauch host this weekly show discussing current events with an eye towards seizing opportunity in the changing landscape.

This week we bring back guest Cameron Dillavou, Head of Prime Video Global Strategy, to share insights into Prime Video’s success in Oscar nominations, NFL Contracts and what it takes to make a worldwide brand like Prime relevant for every viewing experience.

With Disney+ as 100M+ Subscriber base, the Mouse House doesn’t give in to Cinemark and walks away from Raya movie fans. Theaters open up and are filling up, but the capacity holds back healthy returns for distributors, so studios are finding pre-pandemic deals may fall short.

Disney also dominates in SVOD space. Netting half the number of Netflix subs in 12 months and crashing the server with Wandavision Finale. “Disney’s vision complements the distribution formats with the content.” - Tim Thompson

Universal takes two, with FF9 by pushing the release date after July 4th. And Peacock TV, Comcast/Universal NBC’s AVOD platform, shows a big (but “projected”) loss with $914M loss in launching the platform brings on only $118M in ad revenue.

Our special guest Kyle Davies brings some huge enthusiasm for the return to theaters. From his experience in exhibition and distribution at Dreamworks, Relativity and most recent Head of Domestic Distribution at Paramount, Kyle shares the inside scoop on the changes and challenges due to the Pandemic. “The pandemic has accelerated a friction and the distribution windows are at the core”.

Sony Pictures Chair Tom Rothmam pulls from his inner Beyonce and encourages that we will get back into the theaters “if we Make Dope Shit”. The sentiment seems to be rising that the theater experience will fulfill a different purpose than just paying the bills for studios blockbuster strategy. The exhibition of a cinematic experience will need to focus on the execution of the art more than the form in order to get viewers back in the seats.  

This week was the roll out of Paramount+ and investors are lukewarm on welcoming it into the clubhouse. The platform's strategy to release films 45 days after theatrical may be a bold move to keep the films relevant but will be a deal changer for the back end deals for films like Maverick.  

Golden Globes week is upon us without the glitter of the parties, FYC pushes and even the Films. How will the stay at home culture hold back the recognition and reward of the creative career? As a rollout begins for the list of films from the Academy, we may see the lowest numbers ever for the broadcast and a huge separation from the Hollywood of yesterday and today. 

NBC concludes the practice of overnight ratings, dropping the number from their investor and advertising reference to push the focus on the true KPIs of the TV Industry. NBC’s Stuart Levine, writes in Variety “Long gone are the days when a vast majority of viewers watched their favorite shows in the exact time slot in which they were scheduled.”  Further proof that the new metrics of the Hollywood screens are protected on each OTT platform. Influencer culture, branded content, sponsorship deals and subscribers are so entrenched that networks may no longer need Upfront season to make ends meet.

Martin Scorsese Harper’s article (http://timt.la/3uelQTQ​) laments how Film and TV has shifted to “content” which only describes the commodity and has desensitized the experience into minutes consumed. Backlash from Kyle Smith claims the “misplaced nostalgia” doesn’t recognize the opportunity to shift the field.   Industry professionals are feeling more pessimistic about the recovery of the industry and their jobs. The dissolution of Blue Sky and consolidation of Marketing has left many losing confidence, recognizing that layoffs and shifts will leave many looking to change careers because being out of the film industry for one year is like being out for 10 years in other industries. Keith Rauch encourages Hollywood​ to follow Adam Grant’s view to Think Again (www.amzn.com/1984878107), by processing changes like a scientist instead of a politician. This helps us ask the right question and discover new opportunities.

Disney hits the breaks on Blue Sky Studios and drops 90% of employees. This may be a reflection of our times, but realistically Disney was predictable. This move can create a new wave of animation as the Stamford Conn talent can differentiate from the Disney Homogenization machine and take advantage of the flat and wide distribution channels of a post pandemic industry.  

The newest players make big moves as Daily Wire scoops up Gina Carano the day after her breakup with the Mandalorian creatives. A clear move to make a name for themselves, which also gives a view at the strategic opportunity of New Hollywood and micro distribution. This may play out well for small studios who don’t need blockbuster numbers to break even on their content and can get into theaters earlier than the behemoth competition.  

Will #BlackWidow make its debut in the silver screen or be forced to follow the fate of WW84? Disney Plus nears 100M subs, but “Marvel movies were built to be seen in a theatre!” (Keith Rauch)  Kevin Feige needs to determine how tight to hold onto #Theatrical presentation over content dominance for his viewers and filmmakers and pass the burden to Universal for Fast and Furious 9 to break the stay at home bubble.

The VOD platforms have shown their dominance once again with the Golden Globes and Netflix gain of 4 time more nominations than others, with HULU and Amazon rounding out the pack, while traditional studios remain in the shadows. The studios are basically saying:  "Netflix, you know what? You go ahead and run Hollywood now.” Following the Big Tech influence is Apple’s purchase of CODA at Sundance for a record breaking $25 Million after a bidding war with Amazon.   

This trend changes many elements as Tech companies don’t function in the same models, but content makers can be quickly turned into luddites if they don’t keep up with the new demands and deals.   Evidence of change is also coming to the OTT space. Apple brings on Warner Bros veteran JP Richards to become head of film marketing strategy at Apple TV+. He joins the team to influence of Apple’s growing ambitions in original content.    

And watch out for the Gaming companies that their ability to increase the gross engagement time over content makers. The platforms desired metrics of Total Viewed Hours won’t be able to compete with gaming time. Following our discussion with Sean Haran at Gearbox, we see the trend continue with Riot Games hiring of Ryan Crosby from Hulu and Netflix.  This is clearly the indication that new studios are in the works.